Phoenix opens a seven-game homestand tonight at 1-4, two weeks after Portland beat them by 41. The Blazers arrive at 5-1, even without Ja Morant and Shaedon Sharpe. I'm laying the 3.5 with Portland, and I don't need that 41-point game to do it. Take the opener out and Portland is still +4.8 per game while Phoenix is -3.0. That's a 7.8-point gap, so the Suns' home floor would have to be worth more than 4.3 points to make them the right side. Even that -3.0 flatters Phoenix. The Suns went 1-2 against teams on the second night of a back-to-back. The win came over a Warriors team missing Curry, Green, Horford and Podziemski. They lost by 11 to a Thunder team without Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Wallace, then blew a 17-point lead at Golden State on Monday. Denver offers a useful comparison. Portland won by 8 in Denver with less rest than the Nuggets, while Phoenix lost by 7 at home with more rest. Some of that is shooting, since Denver went 20-37 from three against Phoenix and 9-26 against Portland, but the gap is still hard to ignore. The matchup points the same way. Phoenix has allowed at least 116 in all five games, and opponents are hitting 41.1% from three. Portland takes 44.2 threes a game. Portland is also +7.5 in rebounds per game to Phoenix's -6.8. Clingan just grabbed 18 boards, and Mark Williams and Fleming are out for the Suns. Without Morant, Portland is 2-0 and +30. All five of its wins have come by 7 or more, four of them on the road. This isn't free money. Portland turns it over 15.3 times a game, and Phoenix scores 19.8 a game off turnovers. The Suns put up 120 and 131 in their two home games, with Booker scoring 43 in the second. It's also Portland's third straight road game, Lillard and Holiday are both 36, and Henderson now starts despite going just 18-for-53 this season. Phoenix won't shoot 6-32 from three again, and a 3-point Portland win loses this ticket. Goodwin is questionable for the Suns, but that doesn't change my read. I'll take the better team at this number.
Phoenix opens a seven-game homestand tonight at 1-4, two weeks after Portland beat them by 41. The Blazers arrive at 5-1, even without Ja Morant and Shaedon Sharpe.
I'm laying the 3.5 with Portland, and I don't need that 41-point game to do it. Take the opener out and Portland is still +4.8 per game while Phoenix is -3.0. That's a 7.8-point gap, so the Suns' home floor would have to be worth more than 4.3 points to make them the right side.
Even that -3.0 flatters Phoenix. The Suns went 1-2 against teams on the second night of a back-to-back. The win came over a Warriors team missing Curry, Green, Horford and Podziemski. They lost by 11 to a Thunder team without Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Wallace, then blew a 17-point lead at Golden State on Monday.
Denver offers a useful comparison. Portland won by 8 in Denver with less rest than the Nuggets, while Phoenix lost by 7 at home with more rest. Some of that is shooting, since Denver went 20-37 from three against Phoenix and 9-26 against Portland, but the gap is still hard to ignore.
The matchup points the same way. Phoenix has allowed at least 116 in all five games, and opponents are hitting 41.1% from three. Portland takes 44.2 threes a game. Portland is also +7.5 in rebounds per game to Phoenix's -6.8. Clingan just grabbed 18 boards, and Mark Williams and Fleming are out for the Suns. Without Morant, Portland is 2-0 and +30. All five of its wins have come by 7 or more, four of them on the road.
This isn't free money. Portland turns it over 15.3 times a game, and Phoenix scores 19.8 a game off turnovers. The Suns put up 120 and 131 in their two home games, with Booker scoring 43 in the second. It's also Portland's third straight road game, Lillard and Holiday are both 36, and Henderson now starts despite going just 18-for-53 this season. Phoenix won't shoot 6-32 from three again, and a 3-point Portland win loses this ticket.
Goodwin is questionable for the Suns, but that doesn't change my read. I'll take the better team at this number.
Trail Blazers -3.5