NBA · Sat, Oct 31 · 3:00 PM

Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz

O/U 231.5 · SPREAD Portland Trail Blazers -8.5 · Delta Center

GARY'S PICK

NBAvs Trail Blazers· -114

Halloween matinee in Salt Lake: Portland rolls into the Delta Center at 3-1 but without Ja Morant, while a banged-up Utah team that keeps hanging around at home is getting 8.5 points. That's too many. Start with Portland's road résumé. The Blazers won by 8 at Sacramento and by 7 at the Lakers, and neither covers this number. The Kings are 0-5 and their other four losses came by 11, 12, 25 and 27, so Portland's 8 was the closest anyone has played them. Take out the 41-point rout of Phoenix and Portland is -6 across its other three games. Morant is now out with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. Morant was playing 25.8 minutes a night on 26-48 shooting. Jrue Holiday is expected to slide into the starting five, which is fine, but the extra guard minutes go to Scoot Henderson, who is 11-32 from the field and 2-17 from three. Deni Avdija (24, 23, 26 and 18 points) keeps the offense functional, but the depth just got thin. Utah at home is tougher than 1-4 suggests: margins of +1, -9, -5 and -6 in overtime. With Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. essentially missing, the Jazz lost by 5 to 5-0 Memphis and were tied 105-105 with San Antonio at the end of regulation. That same Memphis team beat Portland by 21 in Portland. The spot favors Utah, too: two days of rest at home in its last home game before a four-game trip. Portland comes in on one day off, off a 21-point home loss, opening a four-game road swing with a 1 PM local tip. And Markkanen is a free option. The wrist is questionable, but follow-up tests were "encouraging." If Markkanen suits up, you're holding 8.5 with Utah's top scorer back. The risks are real. Utah turns it over 17.2 times a game, and Keyonte George alone has 21 in five. Without Jackson, the Spurs scored 54 in the paint, and Portland averages 53. Portland also fires 45 threes a game, and a hot night turns this into a rout. But Utah crashes the offensive glass, with 20 boards and 34 second-chance points against the Lakers, and if Robert Williams III sits, Portland's backup center minutes go to Branden Carlson and Micah Potter. I'll take the points with the home dog.

Start with Portland's road résumé. The Blazers won by 8 at Sacramento and by 7 at the Lakers, and neither covers this number. The Kings are 0-5 and their other four losses came by 11, 12, 25 and 27, so Portland's 8 was the closest anyone has played them. Take out the 41-point rout of Phoenix and Portland is -6 across its other three games.

Morant is now out with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. Morant was playing 25.8 minutes a night on 26-48 shooting. Jrue Holiday is expected to slide into the starting five, which is fine, but the extra guard minutes go to Scoot Henderson, who is 11-32 from the field and 2-17 from three. Deni Avdija (24, 23, 26 and 18 points) keeps the offense functional, but the depth just got thin.

Utah at home is tougher than 1-4 suggests: margins of +1, -9, -5 and -6 in overtime. With Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. essentially missing, the Jazz lost by 5 to 5-0 Memphis and were tied 105-105 with San Antonio at the end of regulation. That same Memphis team beat Portland by 21 in Portland.

The spot favors Utah, too: two days of rest at home in its last home game before a four-game trip. Portland comes in on one day off, off a 21-point home loss, opening a four-game road swing with a 1 PM local tip. And Markkanen is a free option. The wrist is questionable, but follow-up tests were "encouraging." If Markkanen suits up, you're holding 8.5 with Utah's top scorer back.

The risks are real. Utah turns it over 17.2 times a game, and Keyonte George alone has 21 in five. Without Jackson, the Spurs scored 54 in the paint, and Portland averages 53. Portland also fires 45 threes a game, and a hot night turns this into a rout. But Utah crashes the offensive glass, with 20 boards and 34 second-chance points against the Lakers, and if Robert Williams III sits, Portland's backup center minutes go to Branden Carlson and Micah Potter.

I'll take the points with the home dog.

The pick & result

Published pick: Utah Jazz +8.5 -114
Published odds: -114
Result: Lost
Final score: 112-90

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

I'll take the points with the home dog.

Injuries noted

Portland Trail Blazers: Ja Morant (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Hamstring Strain; Shaedon Sharpe (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Meniscus Surgery; Robert Williams III (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Left Knee Injury Management; Chris Youngblood (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Soreness

Utah Jazz: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Knee MCL Tear; Lauri Markkanen (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Right Wrist Sprain; Jusuf Nurkic (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Foot 2nd Plantar Plate Tear

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

POR won last season's series 4-0
4-0
Portland beat Utah all four times last season by 12 a game, and tonight is their first meeting this season. Rosters have shifted: Portland is without Ja Morant and Shaedon Sharpe, Utah without Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic. Last season's sweep says Portland had the better team then, which is a weak guide to tonight's version of either club.

REPLACEMENT

Jaren Jackson Jr. is OUT for UTA
OUT
Jaren Jackson Jr. is out for Utah with a torn MCL in his right knee. Along with Nurkic, that leaves Utah without two of its bigs against Portland.
Ja Morant is OUT for POR
OUT
Ja Morant is out for Portland with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain. With Shaedon Sharpe also out, Deni Avdija and the rest of Portland's rotation take on more of the scoring.
Harrison Ingram is OUT for UTA
OUT
Harrison Ingram is out for Utah on a G League two-way assignment. This has little effect on tonight's rotation.
Jayson Kent is OUT for POR
OUT
Jayson Kent is out for Portland on a G League two-way assignment. This has little effect on tonight's rotation.
John Tonje is OUT for POR
OUT
John Tonje is out for Portland on a G League two-way assignment. This has little effect on tonight's rotation.
Kobe Bufkin is OUT for UTA
OUT
Kobe Bufkin is out for Utah on a G League two-way assignment. This has little effect on tonight's rotation.

STREAK

UTA has lost 3 straight
L3
Utah has lost 3 straight by 6.7 points on average and is 1-4 overall. Those are close losses, not blowouts, and five games is a small sample. A team losing by single digits can stay competitive against a spread even while losing.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 31, 2026 at 8:16 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, rebet, draftkings, caesars, betmgm, betparx, betrivers, ballybet, fanatics, betway.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
KEYONTE GEORGEPOINTS OVER 22.5
NBAUtah Jazz· -112
LOST · ACTUAL 8
This Jazz offense belongs to Keyonte George right now. Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with a torn MCL. Markkanen is questionable with a sprained shooting wrist and has played six minutes since October 25. Every possession that used to run through those two now starts in George's hands. Look at what happened once the frontcourt thinned out: 26 points against Memphis when both left early, then 31 on 27 shots against the Spurs in overtime. He hasn't scored fewer than 19 all season, and he's living at the line with 16 free throw attempts across those last two games. Even if Markkanen suits up, a guy returning from a wrist sprain on his shooting hand isn't going to take a full load back on day one, so George stays the focal point. Portland is favored by 8.5, but George has logged 33 to 37 minutes in Utah's losses and Hardy has nobody else to hand the offense to. His own words after the Spurs game were that the Jazz have to play at a level they've never reached. That sounds like a guy who knows the ball is coming to him. I'll lay the small price on 23 or more.
Keyonte George
Points over 22.5
-112 · LOST · ACTUAL 8
Utah Jazz
This Jazz offense belongs to Keyonte George right now. Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with a torn MCL. Markkanen is questionable with a sprained shooting wrist and has played six minutes since October 25. Every possession that used to run through those two now starts in George's hands. Look at what happened once the frontcourt thinned out: 26 points against Memphis when both left early, then 31 on 27 shots against the Spurs in overtime. He hasn't scored fewer than 19 all season, and he's living at the line with 16 free throw attempts across those last two games.
Even if Markkanen suits up, a guy returning from a wrist sprain on his shooting hand isn't going to take a full load back on day one, so George stays the focal point. Portland is favored by 8.5, but George has logged 33 to 37 minutes in Utah's losses and Hardy has nobody else to hand the offense to. His own words after the Spurs game were that the Jazz have to play at a level they've never reached. That sounds like a guy who knows the ball is coming to him. I'll lay the small price on 23 or more.
GARY'S PICK
DONOVAN CLINGANREBOUNDS UNDER 11.5
NBAPortland Trail Blazers· -110
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 9
This number is priced like Clingan is a nightly double digit lock on the glass, and his season says otherwise. He has gone 7, 11, 10 and 8 on the boards, and he has yet to reach 12. The minutes explain it. He's been between 21 and 29 a night, and Nori hasn't extended him even in competitive games. The matchup doesn't help him either. Utah crashes hard. They pulled 20 offensive boards against the Lakers, and they keep rolling out Jaxson Hayes, Mo Bamba and a rookie wing in Ace Bailey whom Hardy keeps praising for his rebounding. That means more contested boards and fewer clean ones for Clingan. On Portland's side, Avdija is grabbing 7 to 10 a night, and Robert Williams III got upgraded to questionable. If Williams is active, he eats backup center minutes and pulled 10 boards in each of his last two full outings. If Portland pulls away as the spread suggests, Clingan sits early too. I'll take him to finish at 11 or fewer.
Donovan Clingan
Rebounds under 11.5
-110 · CASHED · ACTUAL 9
Portland Trail Blazers
This number is priced like Clingan is a nightly double digit lock on the glass, and his season says otherwise. He has gone 7, 11, 10 and 8 on the boards, and he has yet to reach 12. The minutes explain it. He's been between 21 and 29 a night, and Nori hasn't extended him even in competitive games.
The matchup doesn't help him either. Utah crashes hard. They pulled 20 offensive boards against the Lakers, and they keep rolling out Jaxson Hayes, Mo Bamba and a rookie wing in Ace Bailey whom Hardy keeps praising for his rebounding. That means more contested boards and fewer clean ones for Clingan. On Portland's side, Avdija is grabbing 7 to 10 a night, and Robert Williams III got upgraded to questionable. If Williams is active, he eats backup center minutes and pulled 10 boards in each of his last two full outings. If Portland pulls away as the spread suggests, Clingan sits early too. I'll take him to finish at 11 or fewer.

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