Kansas City Chiefs picks

Kansas City comes to Mile High laying a point and a half to a 5-2 Broncos team on a clear, 71-degree afternoon, with the wind picking up as the game goes on. This is where Denver's record has to answer for how the Broncos have actually played. Denver has been outgained by about 79 yards a game and outgained in five of seven games, winning three of those anyway. That record rests on 10 takeaways, a Talanoa Hufanga pick-six (he's out today), short fields against the Chargers, and opponents scoring just 7 touchdowns on 17 red-zone trips outside the Chiefs game. That kind of luck doesn't hold. The real gap is on offense. Kansas City gains about 6.4 yards a play and Denver about 4.8, while both defenses allow about 5.1. The Broncos are 7 of 37 on third down over their last three games, and Bo Nix has topped 222 passing yards once all season. RJ Harvey, the back Nix threw to most, is now on IR. We've already seen this matchup. Kansas City won 31-10 in Week 1, outgaining Denver 392 to 176 and running for 220 while the Broncos missed 24 tackles. Now Jonah Elliss is on IR, and Zach Allen, who had both of Denver's sacks that night, is questionable with a hamstring. The 3-20 loss at Seattle was ugly, but some of it was noise: 4 drops, two Harrison Butker misses, and no Rashee Rice or Jaylon Moore. Both are back with no injury designation. The risks are real. Mansoor Delane is out and L'Jarius Sneed is on IR, leaving the Chiefs thin at corner just as Pat Surtain II returns for Denver. The Broncos have also played the tougher schedule. Butker is 11 of 16 on field goals with gusts forecast to 28 mph. And Nix's legs (73 rushing yards last week, including a 62-yard touchdown) give Denver a big-play threat. Still, at -1.5 I'm only asking the better team to win. Chiefs -1.5.