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NFL · Sun, Oct 25 · 8:20 PM

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks

O/U 42.5 · SPREAD Seattle Seahawks -3 · Lumen Field

GARY'S PICK
Chiefs +3
NFL@ Seahawks· -115

Chiefs
+3

-115 · LOST · KC 3 · SEA 20

Seahawks

The pick & result

Published pick
Kansas City Chiefs +3 -115
Published odds
-115
Result
Lost
Final score
3-20

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 53 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 19 9:10 PM
Close
Sun 8:13 PM
Move
SPREADSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -3 (-108)+½
TOTAL42.5 (-112)43 (-112)+½
MONEYLINESeattle Seahawks -135Seattle Seahawks -165−30
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 19 9:10 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-108)42.5 (-112)Seattle Seahawks -135 · Kansas City Chiefs +115
Oct 20 6:00 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-110)42.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -140 · Kansas City Chiefs +115
Oct 20 7:32 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-110)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -140 · Kansas City Chiefs +115
Oct 20 8:38 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-110)42.5 (-112)Seattle Seahawks -140 · Kansas City Chiefs +115
Oct 20 11:44 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-112)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -140 · Kansas City Chiefs +115
Oct 20 12:45 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-108)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -140 · Kansas City Chiefs +115
Oct 20 3:47 PMSeattle Seahawks -2 (-112)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -140 · Kansas City Chiefs +115
Oct 20 5:47 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-118)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Oct 20 6:47 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Oct 20 9:47 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Oct 20 10:48 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Oct 21 12:18 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-125)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Oct 21 7:00 AMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Oct 21 8:00 AMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-108)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Kansas City Chiefs +120
Oct 21 11:32 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-118)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Kansas City Chiefs +120
Oct 22 12:22 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-118)42.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Kansas City Chiefs +120
Thu 9:00 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-118)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Kansas City Chiefs +120
Thu 11:58 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-118)42.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Kansas City Chiefs +120
Thu 7:34 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-118)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Thu 8:54 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-118)42.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Kansas City Chiefs +120
Fri 11:01 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-118)42.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Fri 2:02 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Kansas City Chiefs +120
Fri 4:03 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-118)42.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Kansas City Chiefs +120
Fri 4:59 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Fri 5:59 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-118)42 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Kansas City Chiefs +120
Fri 8:00 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42 (-118)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Fri 11:00 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Sat 10:32 AMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42 (-118)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Sat 12:02 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Sat 2:32 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Sat 6:03 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Sat 9:34 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -155 · Kansas City Chiefs +130
Sun 12:04 AMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42 (-118)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Sun 5:00 AMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Sun 7:31 AMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -155 · Kansas City Chiefs +130
Sun 7:52 AMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Sun 8:22 AMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -155 · Kansas City Chiefs +130
Sun 10:10 AMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Sun 11:51 AMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Sun 12:00 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Sun 1:32 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Sun 1:43 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Kansas City Chiefs +125
Sun 3:33 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)42 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -160 · Kansas City Chiefs +135
Sun 5:03 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)43 (-105)Seattle Seahawks -160 · Kansas City Chiefs +135
Sun 5:20 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)43 (-105)Seattle Seahawks -165 · Kansas City Chiefs +135
Sun 5:41 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-105)43 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -165 · Kansas City Chiefs +135
Sun 5:51 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-105)43 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -160 · Kansas City Chiefs +135
Sun 6:31 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)43 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -160 · Kansas City Chiefs +135
Sun 7:12 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)43 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -160 · Kansas City Chiefs +135
Sun 7:23 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)43 (-120)Seattle Seahawks -160 · Kansas City Chiefs +135
Sun 7:33 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)43 (-112)Seattle Seahawks -160 · Kansas City Chiefs +135
Sun 7:43 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-108)43 (-112)Seattle Seahawks -165 · Kansas City Chiefs +138
Sun 8:03 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-108)43 (-120)Seattle Seahawks -165 · Kansas City Chiefs +135
CLOSESun 8:13 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-108)43 (-112)Seattle Seahawks -165 · Kansas City Chiefs +135

The read

Sunday night at Lumen Field, a 5-0 Kansas City team walks in getting a field goal, and Kenneth Walker III gets his first look at his old sideline. Walker is the storyline, but ball security will decide the game.

Seattle has turned it over 11 times in Sam Darnold's four starts and gone 1-3 in them. Kansas City has given it away four times all season and has forced at least one takeaway in every game, nine in all. Seattle's defense is legitimately good, allowing about 237 yards a game, but that hasn't been enough. In Denver it held the Broncos to 168 yards and still lost, because the offense gave it away three times and took five sacks. Nobody is owed a cleaner game. That's been the pattern for a month.

Protection is the other problem. Darnold has been sacked 13 times over the last three games, with 17 QB hits in Denver alone. Kansas City put 9 and 10 hits on quarterbacks in two of its last three games. More heat on a quarterback who is already coughing it up is how a 3-point favorite loses.

Kansas City also has a way to move the ball without throwing into that pass rush. Walker has 665 yards on 106 carries, and Seattle is without linebacker Drake Thomas. I won't oversell that, since Seattle held Denver to 74 rushing yards without Thomas. Rashee Rice is out again, but Rice missed last week too, and the Chiefs still piled up 422 yards.

The risks are real. Kansas City is into its depth at tackle, with Josh Simmons on IR and Jaylon Moore out. If DeMarcus Lawrence and Uchenna Nwosu both suit up, that's Seattle's best path. Harrison Butker has missed three kicks from 50-plus, while Jason Myers is 12-of-13, and this game could come down to one kick. Seattle also has the extra rest and the home crowd, and L'Jarius Sneed's status hasn't been confirmed.

Still, I'll take a field goal with the quarterback who protects the ball over the one giving it away nearly three times a game. Chiefs +3.

Injuries noted

Kansas City Chiefs: Omarr Norman-Lott (PUP-R) — Norman-Lott (knee) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Chiefs on Sunday.; Ethan Downs (IR) — The Chiefs placed (Downs) knee on injured reserve Tuesday, Matt Derrick of ChiefsDigest.com reports.; John Michael Gyllenborg (IR); Jeff Caldwell (IR) — Caldwell (knee) reverted to the Chiefs' injured reserve list Tuesday, Charles Goldman of AtoZSports.com reports.; Jimmy Holiday (IR) — Holiday (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Chiefs on Sunday.; Josh Simmons (IR) — The Chiefs placed Simmons (lower back) on injured reserve Thursday.; Matt Waletzko (IR) — Waletzko (undisclosed) reverted from waivers to Kansas City's injured reserve list Friday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Rashee Rice (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Hamstring); practice: DNP. Rice (hamstring/knee) was not present during the portion of Friday's practice open to the media, Pete Sweeney of The Kansas City Star reports.; Tyquan Thornton (IR) — The Chiefs placed Thornton (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Jaylon Moore (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Concussion); practice: DNP. out; L'Jarius Sneed (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Knee); practice: Limited. Sneed (knee) did not fly to Seattle with the Chiefs due to personal reasons but remains questionable for Sunday night's contest.; Brashard Smith (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Hamstring); practice: DNP. The Chiefs placed Smith (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.; Cooper McDonald (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Knee); practice: Limited.

Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Knee); practice: Full. Head coach Mike Macdonald said Friday that Charbonnet (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game versus the Chiefs, Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13 Seattle reports.; Robbie Ouzts (IR) — ir; Jake Bobo (IR) — The Seahawks placed Bobo (knee) on injured reserve Saturday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.; Bud Clark (IR); Mason Richman (IR) — The Seahawks placed Richman (leg) on injured reserve Tuesday, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.; Jadarian Price (IR) — Head coach Mike Macdonald said Friday that Price "should be looking at a sooner rather than later return after" the Seahawks' next game in Week 7, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.; Chazz Surratt (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Calf); practice: DNP. Surratt (calf) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Chiefs, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.; Julian Neal (IR) — The Seahawks placed Neal (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.; Drake Thomas (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Ankle); practice: DNP. Thomas (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Chiefs, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.; Elijah Arroyo (IR) — Head coach Mike Macdonald told reporters Friday that Arroyo (shoulder) underwent surgery and will likely be out for the rest of the season, Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13 Seattle reports.; Drew Lock (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Elbow); practice: Limited. Lock (elbow) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Chiefs, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.; Connor O'Toole (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Hamstring); practice: Limited. questionable; DeMarcus Lawrence (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Knee); practice: Limited. questionable; Uchenna Nwosu (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Hip); practice: Limited. questionable; Nick Emmanwori (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Hip); practice: Limited. Emmanwori (hip) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Sam Darnold is the projected starting quarterback for SEA

    6.93 Y/A

    Through 5 games in 2026, Sam Darnold threw for 1033 passing yards, completed 60.4% of his passes and averaged 6.93 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4048 yards, completed 67.7% and averaged 8.49 yards per attempt, 25-14 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 7-7 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.

  • Patrick Mahomes is the projected starting quarterback for KC

    8.29 Y/A

    Through 5 games in 2026, Patrick Mahomes threw for 1309 passing yards, completed 66.5% of his passes and averaged 8.29 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3587 yards, completed 62.7% and averaged 7.14 yards per attempt, 22-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 9-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.

TRENCHES

  • KC: 159.8 rushing yards per game to SEA's 107.2

    52.6 YPG

    Kansas City runs for 159.8 yards a game over 5 games, way up from 106.6 last season. Seattle is at 107.2, down from 123.3. The Chiefs leaning on the run is a real change in identity, though a jump that size in 5 games will likely come back some. Against Seattle, expect Kansas City to keep pounding it, which shortens the game and matters for totals.

  • KC: 5.48 yards per rush attempt to SEA's 3.8

    1.68 Y/C

    KC is at 5.48 yards per rush attempt over 5 games; SEA is at 3.8 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season KC was at 4.29 over 17 games and SEA at 4.17 over 17 games.

PASS RUSH

  • KC: 1.2 sacks taken per game to SEA's 2.67

    1.47 SACKS

    KC is at 1.2 sacks taken per game over 5 games; SEA is at 2.67 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season KC was at 2.94 over 17 games and SEA at 2.08 over 17 games.

  • KC: 7.6 sack yards lost per game to SEA's 19.8

    12.2 YDS

    KC is at 7.6 sack yards lost per game over 5 games; SEA is at 19.8 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season KC was at 19.3 over 17 games and SEA at 14.3 over 17 games.

  • SEA: 2.67 sacks recorded per game to KC's 1.6

    1.07 SACKS

    Seattle is getting 2.67 sacks a game over 6 games, and Kansas City's defense gets 1.6 over 5. Sacks come in bunches, so one big game can inflate an average this early. The Seahawks have been the more disruptive front so far. For this game, Seattle's rush is the one more likely to knock the Chiefs off schedule, which matters for drive length and sack props.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • KC: 16.6 points allowed per game to SEA's 20.3

    3.7 PPG

    KC is at 16.6 points allowed per game over 5 games; SEA is at 20.3 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season KC was at 19.3 over 17 games and SEA at 17.2 over 17 games.

  • KC: 28 points per game to SEA's 24.7

    3.3 PPG

    KC is at 28 points per game over 5 games; SEA is at 24.7 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season KC was at 21.3 over 17 games and SEA at 28.4 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

  • KC: 0.8 turnovers committed per game to SEA's 2

    1.2 TO

    Kansas City turns it over just 0.8 times a game over 5 games, right in line with its 0.88 last season, so this is a steady trait. Seattle is at 2, up from 1.65. Turnovers are noisy, so Seattle's rate may ease, but the Chiefs have long protected the ball. In a road game, extra possessions from Seattle mistakes could decide it.

  • KC: 0.2 fumbles lost per game to SEA's 0.83

    0.63 FUM

    KC is at 0.2 fumbles lost per game over 5 games; SEA is at 0.83 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season KC was at 0.18 over 17 games and SEA at 0.76 over 17 games.

  • KC: 0.6 interceptions thrown per game to SEA's 1.17

    0.57 INT

    KC is at 0.6 interceptions thrown per game over 5 games; SEA is at 1.17 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season KC was at 0.71 over 17 games and SEA at 0.88 over 17 games.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • KC: 6.74 yards per play to SEA's 5.3

    1.44 Y/P

    Kansas City gains 6.74 yards a play over 5 games, a big jump from 5.05 last season, while Seattle has slipped to 5.3 from 5.98. The Chiefs hit 4 plays of 20-plus last game, including Patrick Mahomes finding Noah Gray for 31 and Travis Kelce for 24. Seattle's explosives came from Sam Darnold to Rashid Shaheed for 42 and Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 32. Kansas City's efficiency should cool some, but it moves the ball in bigger chunks.

RED ZONE

  • KC: 33.3% red-zone scoring allowed to SEA's 78.6%

    45.2 PP

    KC is at 33.3% red-zone scoring allowed over 5 games; SEA is at 78.6% over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.

MISMATCH

  • KC: 6.74 yards a snap to SEA's 5.3

    6.74 VS 5.3

    Kansas City averages 6.74 yards a snap over five games, up from 5.05 last season, while Seattle sits at 5.3, below its 5.98. The Chiefs are moving the ball much more efficiently, and Seattle has to stay on schedule to keep up. A jump that big over five games may cool some. Efficiency gaps like this usually mean more scoring chances for the better offense.

COVERAGE

  • SEA: 141.3 passing yards allowed per game to KC's 217.2

    75.9 YPG

    Seattle is holding offences to 141.3 passing yards a game over 6 games, while Kansas City gives up 217.2 across 5. Seattle's number can partly reflect opponents who ran more or the quarterbacks they drew, so it may not be this low against better passers. For Chiefs at Seahawks, the Kansas City passing game faces the tougher secondary on paper, which shapes how you view Chiefs yardage props.

  • SEA: 3.9 yards per play allowed to KC's 4.7

    0.8 Y/P

    KC is at 4.7 yards per play allowed over 5 games; SEA is at 3.9 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.

  • SEA: 28% third downs allowed to KC's 35.7%

    7.7 PP

    KC is at 35.7% third downs allowed over 5 games; SEA is at 28% over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.

REPLACEMENT

  • Drew Lock (QB) is out for SEA

    OUT

    Lock is inactive with an elbow injury, but Seattle has him as the emergency third quarterback Sunday night against Kansas City. That means he dresses only in a disaster scenario where both quarterbacks ahead of him go down. For betting, this changes little: he was a backup, and his elbow keeps him from being anything more than insurance in this game.

  • Connor O'Toole (LB) is out for SEA

    OUT

    O'Toole is inactive with a hamstring injury for Sunday night's game against the Chiefs. He is a depth linebacker, so his absence mostly affects special teams and rotation snaps. This is a minor note for the Seattle defense in this matchup.

  • Chazz Surratt (LB) is out for SEA

    OUT

    SEA lists Chazz Surratt as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 25.

  • Beau Stephens (G) is out for SEA

    OUT

    SEA lists Beau Stephens as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 25.

  • Zach Charbonnet (RB) is out for SEA

    OUT

    Seattle has Charbonnet out against Kansas City, and the report gives no injury detail. He is part of the Seahawks' backfield, so his carries go to the other running backs on the depth chart. For bettors, more volume should land on whoever starts in the Seattle backfield Sunday night.

  • Jaylon Moore (OT) is out for KC

    OUT

    Moore is out Sunday at Seattle with a concussion, so Kansas City needs another tackle for this game. The sheet doesn't name his replacement, so confirm who starts before weighing how this affects protection against the Seahawks.

  • Ben VanSumeren (FB) is out for KC

    OUT

    KC lists Ben VanSumeren as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 25.

  • Jack Pyburn (LB) is out for KC

    OUT

    KC lists Jack Pyburn as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 25.

  • Drake Thomas (LB) is out for SEA

    OUT

    SEA lists Drake Thomas as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 25.

  • Garrett Nussmeier (QB) is out for KC

    OUT

    This is a roster move. Garrett Nussmeier is healthy and inactive by coach's decision, held as Kansas City's emergency third quarterback for Sunday night in Seattle. A third quarterback almost never takes a snap, so his absence leaves the Chiefs' passing game as it was. For betting purposes the starter's line and props are the ones to follow, and this listing does not move them.

  • Jadon Canady (CB) is out for KC

    OUT

    KC lists Jadon Canady as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 25.

  • Robert Henry Jr. (RB) is out for SEA

    OUT

    SEA lists Robert Henry Jr. as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 25.

  • Rashee Rice (WR) is out for KC

    OUT

    Rice is out for Kansas City's game at Seattle, and the report does not name an injury. When a team's lead receiver sits, the targets go to the rest of the receiver room and the tight ends. With no detail on who steps up, the useful angle is watching how the Chiefs' passing game spreads the ball without him.

  • Rashid Shaheed (WR) is questionable for SEA

    QUESTIONABLE

    SEA lists Rashid Shaheed as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 26.

  • Brashard Smith (RB) is on injured reserve for KC

    IR

    The Chiefs placed Smith (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Oct 24.

  • Elijah Arroyo (TE) is on injured reserve for SEA

    IR

    Head coach Mike Macdonald told reporters Friday that Arroyo (shoulder) underwent surgery and will likely be out for the rest of the season, Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13 Seattle reports. Reported Oct 23.

  • Josh Simmons (OT) is on injured reserve for KC

    IR

    The Chiefs placed Simmons (lower back) on injured reserve Thursday. Reported Oct 22.

  • Tyquan Thornton (WR) is on injured reserve for KC

    IR

    The Chiefs placed Thornton (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday. Reported Oct 13.

  • Jadarian Price (RB) is on injured reserve for SEA

    IR

    Head coach Mike Macdonald said Friday that Price "should be looking at a sooner rather than later return after" the Seahawks' next game in Week 7, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports. Reported Oct 16.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Chazz Surratt

    Out

    Calf · Did not practice · Out

  • Jaylon Moore

    Out

    Concussion · Did not practice · Out

  • Drake Thomas

    Out

    Ankle · Did not practice · Out

  • Rashid Shaheed

    Out

    Full practice · Out

  • Brashard Smith

    Out

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

  • Zach Charbonnet

    Out

    Knee · Full practice · Out

  • Rashee Rice

    Out

    Hamstring, Knee · Did not practice · Out

  • L'Jarius Sneed

    Questionable

    Knee · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Connor O'Toole

    Questionable

    Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Nick Emmanwori

    Questionable

    Hip · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Uchenna Nwosu

    Questionable

    Hip · Limited practice · Questionable

  • DeMarcus Lawrence

    Questionable

    Knee · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Cooper McDonald

    Questionable

    Knee · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Drew Lock

    Questionable

    Elbow · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Josh Simmons

    DNP

    Back · Did not practice

  • Travis Kelce

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Tyrice Knight

    FP

    Full practice

  • Cyrus Allen

    FP

    Full practice

  • Chamarri Conner

    FP

    Full practice

  • Patrick Mahomes

    FP

    Full practice

  • Beau Stephens

    FP

    Coach's Decision · Full practice

  • Anthony Bradford

    FP

    Full practice

  • Trey Smith

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • KC (5-0) at SEA (3-3)

    -31 PT GAP

    KC is 5-0, +57 points on the year, has won 5 straight this season. SEA is 3-3, +26 points on the year, has lost 2 straight this season. KC is 2-0 on the road; SEA is 2-1 at home.

  • KC: 7.9 yards per pass attempt to SEA's 6.47

    1.43 Y/A

    KC is at 7.9 yards per pass attempt over 5 games; SEA is at 6.47 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season KC was at 5.65 over 17 games and SEA at 8.01 over 17 games.

  • KC: 41.7% third-down conversion rate to SEA's 32.4%

    9.2 PP

    KC is at 41.7% third-down conversion rate over 5 games; SEA is at 32.4% over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season KC was at 37.4% over 17 games and SEA at 39.8% over 17 games.

  • SEA has 3 more days of rest

    7d vs 10d

    Seattle hosts on 10 days of rest, while Kansas City is on its usual 7 and traveling. The Seahawks get a little extra recovery and prep time at home. A three-day gap is a small edge, worth a nudge and no more.

  • KC: 254.2 team passing yards per game to SEA's 225

    29.2 YPG

    KC is at 254.2 team passing yards per game over 5 games; SEA is at 225 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season KC was at 214.1 over 17 games and SEA at 228.1 over 17 games.

  • KC: 1.8 fourth-down attempts per game to SEA's 1.17

    0.63 ATT/G

    KC is at 1.8 fourth-down attempts per game over 5 games; SEA is at 1.17 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season KC was at 1.88 over 17 games and SEA at 0.71 over 17 games.

STREAK

  • KC has won 5 straight

    W5

    KC is 5-0 and takes that streak on the road to SEA. With no opponent list on the sheet, five wins tell you KC keeps finding ways to win, with nothing on how strong the competition was. A five-game start is short, and road games against a home crowd are a common place for a streak to end. Weigh how much the unbeaten record is inflating KC's price before leaning on it.

AFTER GARY

  • KC +3 → +3

    NOW +2.03PP

    Gary's number was 3; the same book now shows 3.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 22, 2026 at 4:21 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: caesars, fanduel, draftkings, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    JAXON SMITH-NJIGBARECEIVING YARDS OVER 92.5
    NFLSeattle Seahawks· -113

    Jaxon Smith-Njigba
    Receiving Yards over 92.5

    -113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 150

    Seattle Seahawks

    Seattle's offense has narrowed to one man, and the injury report narrows it further. Smith-Njigba has drawn 30 of the team's 93 targets over the last three games and is averaging just under 120 receiving yards a game. Look at what's around him. The run game is Emanuel Wilson at about three and a half yards a carry. Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price are both out, and tight end Elijah Arroyo is done for the year. When Darnold needs a completion, there's one place he looks.

    The game script points the same way. I have Kansas City covering this game, and if the Chiefs control it with Walker, Seattle spends the second half throwing. In Denver, the last time this offense chased a game, Darnold threw 51 times and Smith-Njigba caught 12 of 16 targets for 134 yards.

    The Kansas City secondary is also thinner than usual. L'Jarius Sneed didn't fly to Seattle with the team, so I'm treating him as unavailable, and that leaves more snaps for the depth behind him. The Chiefs have given up plenty of yardage to receivers this year without allowing a touchdown to one. That's a defense that bends between the twenties, which is exactly where this prop gets cashed.

    What beats it: his softer games have come at home, including 76 yards against the Chargers. Kansas City could bracket him and dare Kupp and Shaheed to win. The other danger is Darnold himself. Turnovers end drives before they get going, and the Chiefs' pass rush has been putting nine and ten hits on quarterbacks. If Seattle jumps out front and leans on the ground, the volume dries up. I'll still take the receiver who gets a third of the looks against a secondary missing its best corner.

  • GARY'S PICK
    KENNETH WALKER IIIRUSHING YARDS OVER 75.5
    NFLKansas City Chiefs· -115

    Kenneth Walker III
    Rushing Yards over 75.5

    -115 · LOST · ACTUAL 36

    Kansas City Chiefs

    This line has been marked down a long way for the Seattle defense, and I think it went too far. Walker is averaging 133 rushing yards a game on about 21 carries. His quietest day was 70 yards on 18 carries in Miami. The number asks for roughly that floor game against his old team.

    The Chiefs have every reason to keep handing it to him. Josh Simmons is on IR and Jaylon Moore is out, so Kansas City is down to its depth at tackle against a front that can rush the passer. The cleanest way to protect Mahomes is to stay on schedule on the ground and keep the dropbacks short. Kansas City has topped 150 rushing yards as a team in four of its five games, and Walker takes the bulk of those carries, with Emmett Johnson barely touching it.

    Seattle's linebacker room is short too. Drake Thomas, who played 77 percent of the snaps the last time he was healthy, is out along with Chazz Surratt. DeMarcus Lawrence and Uchenna Nwosu are both questionable after limited weeks.

    What beats it: this Seattle defense is legitimately stout against backs, allowing about three and a half yards a carry. It held Denver to 74 rushing yards without Thomas. If Walker gets 20 carries at that rate, he lands right on the number, so I need one or two of his long runs to show up. A Seattle lead that forces Mahomes to throw would cut into his carries. So would a makeshift line that can't get a push. My side of the game call needs Kansas City in control, and when the Chiefs are in control, Walker gets fed.

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