Houston Texans picks

J.J. McCarthy makes a first Giants start in Houston, less than a month after the trade, with both teams heading into the bye and the Texans laying 10.5 at home. That's a big number for two teams that have looked a lot closer than that over six weeks. Houston's case is real. The Giants' secondary is in pieces. Jevon Holland and Tremaine Edmunds both played every snap last week, and both are out. Greg Newsome II is out, Brian Burns is on IR, Tyler Nubin is questionable and Paulson Adebo just came off IR. C.J. Stroud has 9 TD against 1 INT, Nico Collins is healthy and Marvin Harrison Jr. plays his second game. The Texans will score. But Houston's back end is gutted too. Both starting safeties, Jalen Pitre and Reed Blankenship, are out, a week after Jacksonville put up 412 yards on this defense. That's an opening for Malik Nabers, who has 165 and 121 yards the last two weeks, and Isaiah Likely, who has 5 TD. The Giants have scored 28, 36, 27 and 27 in four of six games. The season also says these teams aren't 10 points apart. Houston has one double-digit win, 26-3 at Tennessee. Its other results were 31-36, 6-20, 17-19, 30-34 and 34-31. Bump Houston up for a tougher schedule and the Giants down for the injuries, and this still reads like a touchdown spread. Some things don't matter here. David Montgomery is out, but he had 52 carries for 138 yards. Tank Dell's return will be limited. Results against Dallas and Tennessee, common opponents, tell us nothing. The Giants' four-turnover day last week doesn't mean they're due for anything. The worry is the line in front of McCarthy. The Giants allowed 5 sacks last week, and Jermaine Eluemunor and Marcus Mbow are both questionable. If both sit, this gets thin. As it stands, the number asks Houston to do something it's done once all year, against an offense with a real path to 20-plus. I'll take the points. It's a lean, not a hammer.