Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
O/U 29.5 · SPREAD Houston Texans -22.5 · Nissan Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Tennessee Titans +7 -108
- Published odds
- -108
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 26-3
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETRIVERS · 77 moves| Market | Opened Oct 4 3:26 PM | Close Oct 11 12:43 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Houston Texans -6.5 (-109) | Houston Texans -7 (-104) | +½ |
| TOTAL | 39 (-112) | 37.5 (-109) | −1½ |
| MONEYLINE | Houston Texans -315 | Houston Texans -315 | Holds |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 4 3:26 PM | Houston Texans -6.5 (-109) | 39 (-112) | Houston Texans -315 · Tennessee Titans +250 |
| Oct 5 3:57 PM | Houston Texans -6.5 (-117) | 39.5 (-108) | Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +255 |
| Oct 6 6:00 AM | Houston Texans -7 (-110) | 39.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -305 · Tennessee Titans +245 |
| Oct 6 9:00 AM | Houston Texans -7 (-117) | 39.5 (-113) | Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +255 |
| Oct 6 9:41 AM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-106) | 40 (-107) | Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +260 |
| Oct 6 11:42 AM | Houston Texans -6.5 (-118) | 38.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -278 · Tennessee Titans +225 |
| Oct 6 12:43 PM | Houston Texans -7 (-106) | 38.5 (-112) | Houston Texans -286 · Tennessee Titans +230 |
| Oct 6 4:02 PM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-112) | 38.5 (-113) | Houston Texans -345 · Tennessee Titans +270 |
| Oct 6 6:02 PM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-106) | 38 (-112) | Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +260 |
| Oct 6 10:03 PM | Houston Texans -7 (-115) | 38 (-109) | Houston Texans -315 · Tennessee Titans +250 |
| Oct 7 6:00 AM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-112) | 37.5 (-109) | Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +265 |
| Oct 7 8:30 AM | Houston Texans -8 (-108) | 37.5 (-108) | Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +265 |
| Oct 7 1:33 PM | Houston Texans -8 (-110) | 37.5 (-113) | Houston Texans -345 · Tennessee Titans +275 |
| Oct 7 3:33 PM | Houston Texans -7 (-115) | 38 (-112) | Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +260 |
| Oct 7 4:35 PM | Houston Texans -7 (-112) | 38 (-110) | Houston Texans -315 · Tennessee Titans +250 |
| Oct 7 6:36 PM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-113) | 37.5 (-112) | Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +280 |
| Oct 7 8:36 PM | Houston Texans -8 (-109) | 38 (-110) | Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +285 |
| Oct 8 6:00 AM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-109) | 38 (-112) | Houston Texans -385 · Tennessee Titans +300 |
| Oct 8 6:30 AM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-104) | 38 (-110) | Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +290 |
| Oct 8 8:00 AM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-104) | 37.5 (-112) | Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +285 |
| Oct 8 8:30 AM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-105) | 37.5 (-113) | Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +290 |
| Oct 8 9:00 AM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-107) | 37.5 (-112) | Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +290 |
| Oct 8 9:31 AM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-106) | 37.5 (-113) | Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +290 |
| Oct 8 10:01 AM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-106) | 37.5 (-113) | Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +285 |
| Oct 8 10:31 AM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-107) | 37.5 (-113) | Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +290 |
| Oct 8 11:01 AM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-105) | 37.5 (-112) | Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +285 |
| Oct 8 12:32 PM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-106) | 37.5 (-112) | Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +290 |
| Oct 8 2:02 PM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-107) | 37.5 (-113) | Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +290 |
| Oct 8 2:32 PM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-107) | 37 (-115) | Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +290 |
| Oct 8 3:03 PM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-113) | 37 (-115) | Houston Texans -400 · Tennessee Titans +300 |
| Oct 8 4:30 PM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-113) | 37.5 (-107) | Houston Texans -400 · Tennessee Titans +310 |
| Oct 8 5:15 PM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-110) | 38 (-109) | Houston Texans -385 · Tennessee Titans +300 |
| Oct 8 5:25 PM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-110) | 37.5 (-108) | Houston Texans -385 · Tennessee Titans +300 |
| Oct 8 5:35 PM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-113) | 38 (-109) | Houston Texans -400 · Tennessee Titans +310 |
| Oct 8 5:56 PM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-113) | 38 (-110) | Houston Texans -400 · Tennessee Titans +310 |
| Oct 8 6:56 PM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-113) | 38 (-110) | Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +255 |
| Oct 8 10:17 PM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-112) | 38 (-110) | Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +255 |
| Oct 9 6:30 AM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-112) | 38 (-109) | Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +255 |
| Oct 9 9:31 AM | Houston Texans -8 (-110) | 38 (-112) | Houston Texans -420 · Tennessee Titans +310 |
| Oct 9 10:31 AM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-114) | 38 (-110) | Houston Texans -400 · Tennessee Titans +310 |
| Oct 9 11:31 AM | Houston Texans -8 (-108) | 37.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -400 · Tennessee Titans +310 |
| Oct 9 1:01 PM | Houston Texans -8.5 (-108) | 37.5 (-114) | Houston Texans -420 · Tennessee Titans +325 |
| Oct 9 2:01 PM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-105) | 37.5 (-108) | Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +290 |
| Oct 9 3:02 PM | Houston Texans -7 (-120) | 37.5 (-109) | Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +295 |
| Oct 9 4:02 PM | Houston Texans -7 (-120) | 37.5 (-114) | Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +295 |
| Oct 9 5:02 PM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-105) | 37.5 (-114) | Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +295 |
| Oct 9 6:02 PM | Houston Texans -7 (-113) | 37.5 (-113) | Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +280 |
| Oct 9 7:02 PM | Houston Texans -7 (-114) | 37.5 (-107) | Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +280 |
| Oct 10 12:04 AM | Houston Texans -7 (-114) | 37.5 (-107) | Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +280 |
| Oct 10 5:00 AM | Houston Texans -7 (-114) | 37.5 (-113) | Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +280 |
| Oct 10 9:00 AM | Houston Texans -7 (-115) | 37.5 (-113) | Houston Texans -345 · Tennessee Titans +275 |
| Oct 10 9:31 AM | Houston Texans -7 (-115) | 37.5 (-113) | Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +275 |
| Oct 10 11:08 AM | Houston Texans -7 (-117) | 37.5 (-113) | Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +285 |
| Oct 10 11:38 AM | Houston Texans -7 (-115) | 37.5 (-115) | Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +285 |
| Oct 10 1:08 PM | Houston Texans -7 (-115) | 37.5 (-108) | Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +285 |
| Oct 10 2:38 PM | Houston Texans -7 (-115) | 37.5 (-108) | Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +280 |
| Oct 10 4:08 PM | Houston Texans -7 (-118) | 37.5 (-108) | Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +285 |
| Oct 10 4:38 PM | Houston Texans -7 (-118) | 37.5 (-108) | Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +285 |
| Oct 11 12:09 AM | Houston Texans -7 (-118) | 37.5 (-114) | Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +290 |
| Oct 11 5:00 AM | Houston Texans -7 (-110) | 37.5 (-114) | Houston Texans -345 · Tennessee Titans +270 |
| Oct 11 6:00 AM | Houston Texans -7 (-117) | 37.5 (-115) | Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +285 |
| Oct 11 7:21 AM | Houston Texans -7 (-110) | 37.5 (-115) | Houston Texans -345 · Tennessee Titans +270 |
| Oct 11 7:41 AM | Houston Texans -7 (-115) | 37.5 (-115) | Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +280 |
| Oct 11 8:02 AM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-106) | 37.5 (-115) | Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +295 |
| Oct 11 8:12 AM | Houston Texans -7 (-115) | 37.5 (-112) | Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +280 |
| Oct 11 8:22 AM | Houston Texans -7.5 (-105) | 37.5 (-112) | Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +290 |
| Oct 11 8:52 AM | Houston Texans -7 (-114) | 37.5 (-112) | Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +280 |
| Oct 11 9:31 AM | Houston Texans -7 (-118) | 37.5 (-112) | Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +285 |
| Oct 11 10:00 AM | Houston Texans -7 (-115) | 37.5 (-112) | Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +285 |
| Oct 11 10:10 AM | Houston Texans -7 (-107) | 37.5 (-112) | Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +265 |
| Oct 11 11:01 AM | Houston Texans -6.5 (-110) | 37.5 (-112) | Houston Texans -295 · Tennessee Titans +235 |
| Oct 11 11:21 AM | Houston Texans -6.5 (-115) | 37.5 (-112) | Houston Texans -315 · Tennessee Titans +250 |
| Oct 11 11:32 AM | Houston Texans -7 (-110) | 37.5 (-112) | Houston Texans -345 · Tennessee Titans +270 |
| Oct 11 11:42 AM | Houston Texans -7 (-112) | 37.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -345 · Tennessee Titans +270 |
| Oct 11 11:52 AM | Houston Texans -6.5 (-118) | 37.5 (-109) | Houston Texans -315 · Tennessee Titans +250 |
| Oct 11 12:00 PM | Houston Texans -7 (-108) | 37.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +260 |
| Oct 11 12:13 PM | Houston Texans -7 (-107) | 37.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +260 |
| CLOSEOct 11 12:43 PM | Houston Texans -7 (-104) | 37.5 (-109) | Houston Texans -315 · Tennessee Titans +250 |
The read
Houston has been the better team on a play-by-play basis this year, but it hasn't shown it can turn that into a comfortable win. The Texans are 0-4, and three of those losses came by 5, 2 and 4 points. They blew a 10-point halftime lead to Dallas last week. Their offense moves the ball between the 20s and then stalls. Inside the 20 they average about a yard and a half per play, they've made 2 of 7 fourth-down tries, and they've been leaning on Ka'imi Fairbairn field goals. David Montgomery is averaging 2.7 yards a carry, and Tennessee hasn't allowed a 20-yard run all season. Houston's red-zone trouble meets a Titans defense that has held up near the goal line. Field goals don't win by eight.
Houston also comes in with questions of its own. Left tackle Aireontae Ersery missed Thursday and Friday practice with an illness, guard Ed Ingram is questionable, and Braden Smith is out. That's a shaky line against a Titans front that leads the NFL in tackles for loss over the last three weeks, with Jeffery Simmons healthy. The Houston defense has allowed 27 points a game, and DeMeco Ryans is calling the defense himself for the first time this year. That change might help eventually, but it's a question mark this Sunday. The Texans were also flagged 13 times last week and keep giving up big kick returns.
Tennessee's plan is to keep the game short. The Titans run the ball, they've cut down Cam Ward's sacks to one in the last two games, and they've lost three of four by six points or fewer, against Philadelphia, the Giants and Baltimore. Two winless division teams that both play close games, with a full touchdown on the home side, is the side I'll take.
The risk is real. Tennessee is without safety Amani Hooker, so a backup is starting against Nico Collins, and the Titans' offense has given the ball away at bad times. If Houston hits two long passes, this gets away from Tennessee. But I'd rather be getting a touchdown than laying one with a team that hasn't closed out a game yet.
Injuries noted
Houston Texans: Tank Dell (IR-R) — Dell (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Titans.; E.J. Speed (PUP-R) — Speed (quadriceps) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Texans on Sunday.; M.J. Stewart (Questionable) — Stewart (knee) was activated from the reserve/PUP list Saturday but is still questionable for Sunday's game against the Titans.; Ja'Marcus Ingram (IR-R) — The Texans placed Ingram (shoulder) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Graham Mertz (IR) — ir; Solomon Byrd (IR) — Byrd (ankle) reverted to the Texans' injured-reserve list Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Ali Gaye (IR) — The Texans placed Gaye (knee) on injured reserve Sunday.; Sam Hagen (IR) — The Texans placed Hagen (undisclosed) on injured reserve Tuesday, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports.; Jayden Higgins (IR) — ir; Dylan Horton (IR) — The Texans placed Horton (Achilles) on injured reserve Tuesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; K.C. Ossai (IR) — The Texans placed Ossai (undisclosed) on injured reserve Saturday.; Braden Smith (IR-R) — Smith (foot) has been downgraded to out for Sunday's game against the Titans.; Kayden McDonald (Questionable) — The Texans activated McDonald (ankle) from injured reserve Saturday, though he's still questionable to play against the Titans on Sunday.; Jake Hummel (IR) — The Texans placed Hummel (groin) on injured reserve Saturday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Henry To'oTo'o (IR) — To'oTo'o (shoulder) is expected to miss more than four games, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports.; Ed Ingram (Questionable) — questionable; Mario Edwards Jr. (IR) — The Texans placed Edwards on injured reserve Wednesday.; British Brooks (IR) — Brooks (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve Friday.; Jaylin Smith (IR) — Smith (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve by the Texans on Tuesday.; Aireontae Ersery (Questionable) — questionable; Blake Fisher (Questionable) — questionable; Treyvhon Saunders (Questionable) — Saunders was cut from the Texans' practice squad with an injury settlement Tuesday.
Tennessee Titans: Jaylen Harrell (IR) — ir; Jaren Kanak (IR) — ir; Kendell Brooks (IR) — Brooks (undisclosed) reverted to Tennessee's injured reserve Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Milo Eifler (IR) — ir; Tanoh Kpassagnon (IR) — The Titans placed Kpassagnon (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Dorian Mausi (IR-R) — The Titans placed Mausi (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday with a designation to return, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Joshua Williams (IR-R) — Williams (pectoral) has been downgraded to out for Sunday's game against the Texans, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports.; Fernando Carmona (IR) — The Titans placed Carmona (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Jackson Slater (IR) — The Titans placed Slater (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Amani Hooker (Out) — Hooker (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Texans, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports.; David Martin-Robinson (Questionable) — Martin-Robinson (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Texans, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports.; Carnell Tate (Questionable) — Tate (back) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Texans.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Cam Ward is the projected starting quarterback for TEN
6.1 Y/AThrough 4 games in 2026, Cam Ward threw for 726 passing yards, completed 63% of his passes and averaged 6.1 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3169 yards, completed 59.8% and averaged 5.87 yards per attempt, 15-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
C.J. Stroud is the projected starting quarterback for HOU
7.56 Y/AThrough 4 games in 2026, C.J. Stroud threw for 1141 passing yards, completed 61.6% of his passes and averaged 7.56 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3041 yards, completed 64.5% and averaged 7.19 yards per attempt, 19-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
TRENCHES
HOU: 83.8 rushing yards allowed per game to TEN's 122.8
39 YPGHouston is allowing 83.8 rushing yards a game, Tennessee 122.8, both over four games. The Texans have been solid against the run, though run defense numbers also depend on game script, since teams that trail stop running. Four games is a short look, so both can move. For this game, Houston running the ball looks like the cleaner path than Tennessee doing the same.
TEN: 4.08 yards per rush attempt to HOU's 3.45
0.63 Y/CHOU is at 3.45 yards per rush attempt over 4 games; TEN is at 4.08 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 3.94 over 17 games and TEN at 4.19 over 17 games.
PASS RUSH
TEN: 1.5 sacks taken per game to HOU's 3
1.5 SACKSHouston's quarterback takes 3 sacks a game, Tennessee's half that over 4 games. Houston was at 2.58 last season, so the line has a real history of giving up pressure. Tennessee improved sharply from 3.5 last season, which is the number more likely to slide back. Pressure on Houston's passer can stall drives in Tennessee.
HOU: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to TEN's 2
1.5 SACKSHouston is averaging 3.5 sacks a game, Tennessee 2, both over four games. That is a strong Texans rush, though four games is not enough to rule out a soft run of opposing lines, and the sheet does not say who they faced. Sack totals tend to come back toward average. In this matchup, the Titans' quarterback is likely to be under steady pressure, which points toward drives stalling and fewer points for Tennessee.
TEN: 9.3 sack yards lost per game to HOU's 20.5
11.3 YDSHOU is at 20.5 sack yards lost per game over 4 games; TEN is at 9.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 20.8 over 17 games and TEN at 26.1 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
HOU: 21 points per game to TEN's 13.8
7.3 PPGHOU is at 21 points per game over 4 games; TEN is at 13.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 23.8 over 17 games and TEN at 16.7 over 17 games.
HOU: 29:12 time of possession per game to TEN's 24:19
4:53 TOPHOU is at 29:12 time of possession per game over 4 games; TEN is at 24:19 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 31:49 over 17 games and TEN at 29:08 over 17 games.
HOU @ TEN carries a 37.5 market total
37.5At 37.5, Houston at Tennessee sits 6 points below the slate median, so the market expects a grind with long drives and few big plays. The sheet gives no injury or matchup detail to explain it, so the price is the read here. Low totals like this are fragile: one defensive score or a short field after a turnover can knock it over. If you think either offense can break a long play, this number gives you very little room.
TEN: 20.8 points allowed per game to HOU's 27.3
6.5 PPGHOU is at 27.3 points allowed per game over 4 games; TEN is at 20.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 17.4 over 17 games and TEN at 28.1 over 17 games.
HOU: 63.5 offensive plays per game to TEN's 53.8
9.8 PLAYSHOU is at 63.5 offensive plays per game over 4 games; TEN is at 53.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 64 over 17 games and TEN at 59.1 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
HOU: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to TEN's 1.25
0.75 TOHOU is at 0.5 turnovers committed per game over 4 games; TEN is at 1.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 0.71 over 17 games and TEN at 1.12 over 17 games.
HOU: 0 interceptions thrown per game to TEN's 0.5
0.5 INTHOU is at 0 interceptions thrown per game over 4 games; TEN is at 0.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 0.53 over 17 games and TEN at 0.47 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
HOU: 5.5 yards per play to TEN's 4.85
0.65 Y/PHouston is gaining more ground on each snap than Tennessee, and its last game showed how: 8 plays of 20 or more yards, led by C.J. Stroud hitting Jaylin Noel for 52 and Nico Collins for 45. Both teams are up from last season, Houston from 5.1 and Tennessee from 4.38, over just 4 games. Tennessee's offense leans on Cam Ward finding Carnell Tate, while Houston's lives on the deep ball, so this spot hinges on whether Tennessee can keep Stroud's shots in front of them.
MISMATCH
HOU: 264.8 pass yards a game to TEN's 172.3
264.8 VS 172.3The widest gap between these two is pass yards a game: HOU threw for 264.8 passing yards a game over 4 games; TEN threw for 172.3 passing yards a game over 4 games this season. Last season HOU was at 218.1 over 17 games and TEN at 166.1 over 17 games.
COVERAGE
TEN: 209.8 passing yards allowed per game to HOU's 260
50.3 YPGTennessee is allowing 209.8 passing yards a game, while Houston is giving up 260, both over four games. Houston's number is high for a defense that is also strong against the run, and part of that can come from opponents throwing more when they fall behind. Over four games both numbers can move. For this game, the Titans' passing game has more room to work than Houston's does.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
HOU lead the series with TEN since 2025
2-0 SERIESHouston has won both, but in different ways. The first was a 26-0 shutout at home, the second a 16-13 escape in Tennessee. The Titans have scored 13 points in two games against this Texans defense. This one is in Tennessee, where the last meeting came down to a field goal, so the road game has been the closer spot.
REPLACEMENT
Tank Dell (WR) is ir-r for HOU
IR-RTank Dell will not play at Tennessee: Houston ruled him out with a knee injury on Oct 9, and his designation marks him as returning from injured reserve. That leaves the Texans receiver room a body short for this game. Any Houston receiver prop should be priced as if Dell's targets go to someone else on the roster.
Joshua Williams (CB) is ir-r for TEN
IR-RTennessee cornerback Joshua Williams was downgraded to out with a pectoral injury on Oct 10, so he will not face Houston. He carries a return-from-IR tag, meaning he was working back toward the lineup before this setback. With Houston also missing Tank Dell, the Titans secondary loses a body while the Texans receiving group is thinned too.
Braden Smith (OT) is ir-r for HOU
IR-RHouston right tackle Braden Smith was downgraded to out with a foot injury on Oct 11, so he will not play at Tennessee. He is listed as returning from injured reserve, and the late downgrade means the Texans had to adjust the line close to kickoff. A backup tackle starting is a reason to look harder at Tennessee's pass rush in this matchup.
Jaylin Smith (CB) is on injured reserve for HOU
IRTexans cornerback Jaylin Smith was placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury on Oct 7, so he is out for the Tennessee game and more beyond it. That trims Houston's cornerback depth for this trip. It matters more if another Texans corner goes down during the game.
British Brooks (RB) is on injured reserve for HOU
IRHouston running back British Brooks went on injured reserve with a hamstring injury on Oct 3, which keeps him out at Tennessee. Injured reserve means a multi-week absence, so this is no game-time question. Whatever work he had in the Texans backfield goes to the other backs on the roster.
Mario Edwards Jr. (DT) is on injured reserve for HOU
IRHouston defensive tackle Mario Edwards Jr. went on injured reserve on Oct 1 and will miss the Tennessee game. No injury was listed. His snaps on the interior go to the other Texans tackles, which thins their rotation against the Titans run game.
Fernando Carmona (G) is on injured reserve for TEN
IRThe Titans placed Carmona (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 30.
Jackson Slater (G) is on injured reserve for TEN
IRThe Titans placed Slater (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 30.
PRACTICE REPORT
Amani Hooker
OutConcussion · Did not practice · Out
David Martin-Robinson
QuestionableHamstring · Did not practice · Questionable
Kayden McDonald
QuestionableAnkle · Full practice · Questionable
Ed Ingram
QuestionableIllness · Limited practice · Questionable
Aireontae Ersery
QuestionableIllness · Did not practice · Questionable
Blake Fisher
QuestionableIllness · Limited practice · Questionable
Carnell Tate
QuestionableBack · Limited practice · Questionable
M.J. Stewart
QuestionableKnee · Full practice · Questionable
Jadeveon Clowney
DNPDid not practice
Trent Brown
DNPDid not practice
Marcus Harris
LPLimited practice
Kevin Winston Jr.
LPLimited practice
Nico Collins
LPLimited practice
Gunnar Helm
FPFull practice
Logan Hall
FPFull practice
Jeffery Simmons
FPFull practice
Nate Thomas
FPCoach's Decision · Full practice
Wade Woodaz
FPFull practice
Azeez Al-Shaair
FPFull practice
John Franklin-Myers
FPFull practice
Tony Pollard
FPFull practice
Jamal Hill
FPFull practice
Will Anderson Jr.
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
HOU: 264.8 team passing yards per game to TEN's 172.3
92.5 YPGHouston throws for far more per game than Tennessee, so expect the Texans to lean on the pass while the Titans try to grind. Four games in, Houston is up from 218.1 last season and Tennessee sits near its 166.1 from last year. The Titans' number looks like who they are; Houston's jump is a four-game sample and could cool. In this spot, think about Houston's passing volume dictating pace, with Tennessee less likely to keep up through the air.
HOU: 20.3 first downs per game to TEN's 15.8
4.5 FDHOU is at 20.3 first downs per game over 4 games; TEN is at 15.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 19 over 17 games and TEN at 15.4 over 17 games.
HOU: 6.7 yards per pass attempt to TEN's 5.72
0.98 Y/AHOU is at 6.7 yards per pass attempt over 4 games; TEN is at 5.72 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 6.2 over 17 games and TEN at 4.5 over 17 games.
HOU: 1.75 fourth-down attempts per game to TEN's 1
0.75 ATT/GHOU is at 1.75 fourth-down attempts per game over 4 games; TEN is at 1 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 1.12 over 17 games and TEN at 2.06 over 17 games.
HOU (0-4) at TEN (0-4), a division game
-3 PT GAPBoth teams are 0-4 on 4-game losing streaks, Houston at -25 and Tennessee at -28. Those margins are modest for winless clubs, which means both have lost close games. Houston is 0-1 on the road and Tennessee 0-2 at home. One of these streaks ends in this division game, and the point totals give neither team a clear edge.
STREAK
HOU has lost 4 straight
L4Houston has not won a game yet, four tries in and four losses. Four games is a small sample, and nothing on the sheet says who they lost to or by how much. The opponent here is Tennessee, also 0-4, so one of these winless teams leaves with a win. With both sides in the same hole, the records cancel out, and the spread is where to look for how the market separates them.
AFTER GARY
TEN +7 → +6.5
GARY +0.5Gary's number was 7; the same book now shows 6.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 8, 2026 at 4:52 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKWOODY MARKSRUSHING RECEIVING YARDS UNDER 46.5
I'm taking Woody Marks under 46.5 rushing plus receiving yards at -115.
This number still prices Marks like the back he was last year, when he was getting around 17 touches a game. That job belongs to David Montgomery now. Montgomery has taken the larger share of snaps in every game. Over the last two weeks Marks played 24 of 55 snaps and then 20 of 54, with 6 and 5 carries. His combined yardage this season, newest first, is 22, 21, 35 and 40. The 35 came in the one game where he caught five passes, and he is seeing very few targets otherwise: 9 of Houston's 138 on the season.
The matchup doesn't help him much. Houston has run for 3.3 yards a carry in each of the last three games, and Tennessee is one of six teams that hasn't allowed a 20-yard run this year. A back getting six or seven carries needs a big gain to reach 47, and the Titans haven't given those up. Their defense is holding running backs to about three and a half yards a carry.
The strongest case against this: Montgomery is averaging 2.7 a carry, and Nick Caley said this week he won't give up on the run. He wants to find improvement through different schemes and different deployments. If that means more of the split goes to Marks, or if Houston gets ahead and runs out the clock, the carries could add up. Marks also showed last season he can clear this number with a bigger workload, and a single screen that breaks open would erase most of the cushion. Still, nothing reported this week points to his role changing, so I'll go with the usage he's actually had.
- GARY'S PICKCARNELL TATERECEIVING YARDS OVER 46.5
I'm taking Carnell Tate over 46.5 receiving yards at -113.
The rookie's role keeps growing. His targets have gone 6, 5, 9 and 12, and he has drawn 26 of Tennessee's 80 targets over the last three weeks, which makes him the clear first read. Last week in Baltimore he caught nine passes for 145 yards, including the best throw Cam Ward has made all year. Even with Brian Daboll calling a run-first game, Ward throws about 30 passes, and the targets are going to Tate before anyone else.
Houston's secondary has been easy to throw on. Wide receivers have 830 yards against the Texans in four games, CeeDee Lamb caught 17 passes on them last Sunday, and Reed Blankenship has given up 11 yards per target in coverage. The Texans are also switching defensive play callers this week, with DeMeco Ryans taking over and Azeez Al-Shaair coming back to handle communication. That's a lot of change for a unit that has been struggling to communicate.
The main concern is his back. Tate showed up on the report Thursday with tightness, was limited Friday and is listed questionable. Saleh says he's good to go, but if that back tightens up during the game, his snaps could drop quickly. His two home games so far produced only 27 and 38 yards. Houston's pass rush, with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, can also force Ward to get rid of the ball before downfield routes develop. This is a four-game sample on a rookie, so I'm keeping my confidence measured. I'm still betting on the target trend at a line set well below where his recent workload has been.
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