Skip to content
GARY A.I.Get the app
NFL · Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

O/U 29.5 · SPREAD Houston Texans -22.5 · Nissan Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Titans +7
NFLvs Texans· -108

Titans
+7

-108 · LOST · HOU 26 · TEN 3

Texans

The pick & result

Published pick
Tennessee Titans +7 -108
Published odds
-108
Result
Lost
Final score
26-3

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETRIVERS · 77 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 4 3:26 PM
Close
Oct 11 12:43 PM
Move
SPREADHouston Texans -6.5 (-109)Houston Texans -7 (-104)+½
TOTAL39 (-112)37.5 (-109)−1½
MONEYLINEHouston Texans -315Houston Texans -315Holds
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 4 3:26 PMHouston Texans -6.5 (-109)39 (-112)Houston Texans -315 · Tennessee Titans +250
Oct 5 3:57 PMHouston Texans -6.5 (-117)39.5 (-108)Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +255
Oct 6 6:00 AMHouston Texans -7 (-110)39.5 (-110)Houston Texans -305 · Tennessee Titans +245
Oct 6 9:00 AMHouston Texans -7 (-117)39.5 (-113)Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +255
Oct 6 9:41 AMHouston Texans -7.5 (-106)40 (-107)Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +260
Oct 6 11:42 AMHouston Texans -6.5 (-118)38.5 (-110)Houston Texans -278 · Tennessee Titans +225
Oct 6 12:43 PMHouston Texans -7 (-106)38.5 (-112)Houston Texans -286 · Tennessee Titans +230
Oct 6 4:02 PMHouston Texans -7.5 (-112)38.5 (-113)Houston Texans -345 · Tennessee Titans +270
Oct 6 6:02 PMHouston Texans -7.5 (-106)38 (-112)Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +260
Oct 6 10:03 PMHouston Texans -7 (-115)38 (-109)Houston Texans -315 · Tennessee Titans +250
Oct 7 6:00 AMHouston Texans -7.5 (-112)37.5 (-109)Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +265
Oct 7 8:30 AMHouston Texans -8 (-108)37.5 (-108)Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +265
Oct 7 1:33 PMHouston Texans -8 (-110)37.5 (-113)Houston Texans -345 · Tennessee Titans +275
Oct 7 3:33 PMHouston Texans -7 (-115)38 (-112)Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +260
Oct 7 4:35 PMHouston Texans -7 (-112)38 (-110)Houston Texans -315 · Tennessee Titans +250
Oct 7 6:36 PMHouston Texans -7.5 (-113)37.5 (-112)Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +280
Oct 7 8:36 PMHouston Texans -8 (-109)38 (-110)Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +285
Oct 8 6:00 AMHouston Texans -7.5 (-109)38 (-112)Houston Texans -385 · Tennessee Titans +300
Oct 8 6:30 AMHouston Texans -7.5 (-104)38 (-110)Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +290
Oct 8 8:00 AMHouston Texans -7.5 (-104)37.5 (-112)Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +285
Oct 8 8:30 AMHouston Texans -7.5 (-105)37.5 (-113)Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +290
Oct 8 9:00 AMHouston Texans -7.5 (-107)37.5 (-112)Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +290
Oct 8 9:31 AMHouston Texans -7.5 (-106)37.5 (-113)Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +290
Oct 8 10:01 AMHouston Texans -7.5 (-106)37.5 (-113)Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +285
Oct 8 10:31 AMHouston Texans -7.5 (-107)37.5 (-113)Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +290
Oct 8 11:01 AMHouston Texans -7.5 (-105)37.5 (-112)Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +285
Oct 8 12:32 PMHouston Texans -7.5 (-106)37.5 (-112)Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +290
Oct 8 2:02 PMHouston Texans -7.5 (-107)37.5 (-113)Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +290
Oct 8 2:32 PMHouston Texans -7.5 (-107)37 (-115)Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +290
Oct 8 3:03 PMHouston Texans -7.5 (-113)37 (-115)Houston Texans -400 · Tennessee Titans +300
Oct 8 4:30 PMHouston Texans -7.5 (-113)37.5 (-107)Houston Texans -400 · Tennessee Titans +310
Oct 8 5:15 PMHouston Texans -7.5 (-110)38 (-109)Houston Texans -385 · Tennessee Titans +300
Oct 8 5:25 PMHouston Texans -7.5 (-110)37.5 (-108)Houston Texans -385 · Tennessee Titans +300
Oct 8 5:35 PMHouston Texans -7.5 (-113)38 (-109)Houston Texans -400 · Tennessee Titans +310
Oct 8 5:56 PMHouston Texans -7.5 (-113)38 (-110)Houston Texans -400 · Tennessee Titans +310
Oct 8 6:56 PMHouston Texans -7.5 (-113)38 (-110)Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +255
Oct 8 10:17 PMHouston Texans -7.5 (-112)38 (-110)Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +255
Oct 9 6:30 AMHouston Texans -7.5 (-112)38 (-109)Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +255
Oct 9 9:31 AMHouston Texans -8 (-110)38 (-112)Houston Texans -420 · Tennessee Titans +310
Oct 9 10:31 AMHouston Texans -7.5 (-114)38 (-110)Houston Texans -400 · Tennessee Titans +310
Oct 9 11:31 AMHouston Texans -8 (-108)37.5 (-110)Houston Texans -400 · Tennessee Titans +310
Oct 9 1:01 PMHouston Texans -8.5 (-108)37.5 (-114)Houston Texans -420 · Tennessee Titans +325
Oct 9 2:01 PMHouston Texans -7.5 (-105)37.5 (-108)Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +290
Oct 9 3:02 PMHouston Texans -7 (-120)37.5 (-109)Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +295
Oct 9 4:02 PMHouston Texans -7 (-120)37.5 (-114)Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +295
Oct 9 5:02 PMHouston Texans -7.5 (-105)37.5 (-114)Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +295
Oct 9 6:02 PMHouston Texans -7 (-113)37.5 (-113)Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +280
Oct 9 7:02 PMHouston Texans -7 (-114)37.5 (-107)Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +280
Oct 10 12:04 AMHouston Texans -7 (-114)37.5 (-107)Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +280
Oct 10 5:00 AMHouston Texans -7 (-114)37.5 (-113)Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +280
Oct 10 9:00 AMHouston Texans -7 (-115)37.5 (-113)Houston Texans -345 · Tennessee Titans +275
Oct 10 9:31 AMHouston Texans -7 (-115)37.5 (-113)Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +275
Oct 10 11:08 AMHouston Texans -7 (-117)37.5 (-113)Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +285
Oct 10 11:38 AMHouston Texans -7 (-115)37.5 (-115)Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +285
Oct 10 1:08 PMHouston Texans -7 (-115)37.5 (-108)Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +285
Oct 10 2:38 PMHouston Texans -7 (-115)37.5 (-108)Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +280
Oct 10 4:08 PMHouston Texans -7 (-118)37.5 (-108)Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +285
Oct 10 4:38 PMHouston Texans -7 (-118)37.5 (-108)Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +285
Oct 11 12:09 AMHouston Texans -7 (-118)37.5 (-114)Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +290
Oct 11 5:00 AMHouston Texans -7 (-110)37.5 (-114)Houston Texans -345 · Tennessee Titans +270
Oct 11 6:00 AMHouston Texans -7 (-117)37.5 (-115)Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +285
Oct 11 7:21 AMHouston Texans -7 (-110)37.5 (-115)Houston Texans -345 · Tennessee Titans +270
Oct 11 7:41 AMHouston Texans -7 (-115)37.5 (-115)Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +280
Oct 11 8:02 AMHouston Texans -7.5 (-106)37.5 (-115)Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +295
Oct 11 8:12 AMHouston Texans -7 (-115)37.5 (-112)Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +280
Oct 11 8:22 AMHouston Texans -7.5 (-105)37.5 (-112)Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +290
Oct 11 8:52 AMHouston Texans -7 (-114)37.5 (-112)Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +280
Oct 11 9:31 AMHouston Texans -7 (-118)37.5 (-112)Houston Texans -375 · Tennessee Titans +285
Oct 11 10:00 AMHouston Texans -7 (-115)37.5 (-112)Houston Texans -360 · Tennessee Titans +285
Oct 11 10:10 AMHouston Texans -7 (-107)37.5 (-112)Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +265
Oct 11 11:01 AMHouston Texans -6.5 (-110)37.5 (-112)Houston Texans -295 · Tennessee Titans +235
Oct 11 11:21 AMHouston Texans -6.5 (-115)37.5 (-112)Houston Texans -315 · Tennessee Titans +250
Oct 11 11:32 AMHouston Texans -7 (-110)37.5 (-112)Houston Texans -345 · Tennessee Titans +270
Oct 11 11:42 AMHouston Texans -7 (-112)37.5 (-110)Houston Texans -345 · Tennessee Titans +270
Oct 11 11:52 AMHouston Texans -6.5 (-118)37.5 (-109)Houston Texans -315 · Tennessee Titans +250
Oct 11 12:00 PMHouston Texans -7 (-108)37.5 (-110)Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +260
Oct 11 12:13 PMHouston Texans -7 (-107)37.5 (-110)Houston Texans -335 · Tennessee Titans +260
CLOSEOct 11 12:43 PMHouston Texans -7 (-104)37.5 (-109)Houston Texans -315 · Tennessee Titans +250

The read

Houston has been the better team on a play-by-play basis this year, but it hasn't shown it can turn that into a comfortable win. The Texans are 0-4, and three of those losses came by 5, 2 and 4 points. They blew a 10-point halftime lead to Dallas last week. Their offense moves the ball between the 20s and then stalls. Inside the 20 they average about a yard and a half per play, they've made 2 of 7 fourth-down tries, and they've been leaning on Ka'imi Fairbairn field goals. David Montgomery is averaging 2.7 yards a carry, and Tennessee hasn't allowed a 20-yard run all season. Houston's red-zone trouble meets a Titans defense that has held up near the goal line. Field goals don't win by eight.

Houston also comes in with questions of its own. Left tackle Aireontae Ersery missed Thursday and Friday practice with an illness, guard Ed Ingram is questionable, and Braden Smith is out. That's a shaky line against a Titans front that leads the NFL in tackles for loss over the last three weeks, with Jeffery Simmons healthy. The Houston defense has allowed 27 points a game, and DeMeco Ryans is calling the defense himself for the first time this year. That change might help eventually, but it's a question mark this Sunday. The Texans were also flagged 13 times last week and keep giving up big kick returns.

Tennessee's plan is to keep the game short. The Titans run the ball, they've cut down Cam Ward's sacks to one in the last two games, and they've lost three of four by six points or fewer, against Philadelphia, the Giants and Baltimore. Two winless division teams that both play close games, with a full touchdown on the home side, is the side I'll take.

The risk is real. Tennessee is without safety Amani Hooker, so a backup is starting against Nico Collins, and the Titans' offense has given the ball away at bad times. If Houston hits two long passes, this gets away from Tennessee. But I'd rather be getting a touchdown than laying one with a team that hasn't closed out a game yet.

Injuries noted

Houston Texans: Tank Dell (IR-R) — Dell (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Titans.; E.J. Speed (PUP-R) — Speed (quadriceps) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Texans on Sunday.; M.J. Stewart (Questionable) — Stewart (knee) was activated from the reserve/PUP list Saturday but is still questionable for Sunday's game against the Titans.; Ja'Marcus Ingram (IR-R) — The Texans placed Ingram (shoulder) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Graham Mertz (IR) — ir; Solomon Byrd (IR) — Byrd (ankle) reverted to the Texans' injured-reserve list Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Ali Gaye (IR) — The Texans placed Gaye (knee) on injured reserve Sunday.; Sam Hagen (IR) — The Texans placed Hagen (undisclosed) on injured reserve Tuesday, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports.; Jayden Higgins (IR) — ir; Dylan Horton (IR) — The Texans placed Horton (Achilles) on injured reserve Tuesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; K.C. Ossai (IR) — The Texans placed Ossai (undisclosed) on injured reserve Saturday.; Braden Smith (IR-R) — Smith (foot) has been downgraded to out for Sunday's game against the Titans.; Kayden McDonald (Questionable) — The Texans activated McDonald (ankle) from injured reserve Saturday, though he's still questionable to play against the Titans on Sunday.; Jake Hummel (IR) — The Texans placed Hummel (groin) on injured reserve Saturday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Henry To'oTo'o (IR) — To'oTo'o (shoulder) is expected to miss more than four games, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports.; Ed Ingram (Questionable) — questionable; Mario Edwards Jr. (IR) — The Texans placed Edwards on injured reserve Wednesday.; British Brooks (IR) — Brooks (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve Friday.; Jaylin Smith (IR) — Smith (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve by the Texans on Tuesday.; Aireontae Ersery (Questionable) — questionable; Blake Fisher (Questionable) — questionable; Treyvhon Saunders (Questionable) — Saunders was cut from the Texans' practice squad with an injury settlement Tuesday.

Tennessee Titans: Jaylen Harrell (IR) — ir; Jaren Kanak (IR) — ir; Kendell Brooks (IR) — Brooks (undisclosed) reverted to Tennessee's injured reserve Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Milo Eifler (IR) — ir; Tanoh Kpassagnon (IR) — The Titans placed Kpassagnon (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Dorian Mausi (IR-R) — The Titans placed Mausi (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday with a designation to return, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Joshua Williams (IR-R) — Williams (pectoral) has been downgraded to out for Sunday's game against the Texans, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports.; Fernando Carmona (IR) — The Titans placed Carmona (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Jackson Slater (IR) — The Titans placed Slater (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Amani Hooker (Out) — Hooker (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Texans, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports.; David Martin-Robinson (Questionable) — Martin-Robinson (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Texans, Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site reports.; Carnell Tate (Questionable) — Tate (back) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Texans.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Cam Ward is the projected starting quarterback for TEN

    6.1 Y/A

    Through 4 games in 2026, Cam Ward threw for 726 passing yards, completed 63% of his passes and averaged 6.1 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3169 yards, completed 59.8% and averaged 5.87 yards per attempt, 15-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

  • C.J. Stroud is the projected starting quarterback for HOU

    7.56 Y/A

    Through 4 games in 2026, C.J. Stroud threw for 1141 passing yards, completed 61.6% of his passes and averaged 7.56 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3041 yards, completed 64.5% and averaged 7.19 yards per attempt, 19-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

TRENCHES

  • HOU: 83.8 rushing yards allowed per game to TEN's 122.8

    39 YPG

    Houston is allowing 83.8 rushing yards a game, Tennessee 122.8, both over four games. The Texans have been solid against the run, though run defense numbers also depend on game script, since teams that trail stop running. Four games is a short look, so both can move. For this game, Houston running the ball looks like the cleaner path than Tennessee doing the same.

  • TEN: 4.08 yards per rush attempt to HOU's 3.45

    0.63 Y/C

    HOU is at 3.45 yards per rush attempt over 4 games; TEN is at 4.08 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 3.94 over 17 games and TEN at 4.19 over 17 games.

PASS RUSH

  • TEN: 1.5 sacks taken per game to HOU's 3

    1.5 SACKS

    Houston's quarterback takes 3 sacks a game, Tennessee's half that over 4 games. Houston was at 2.58 last season, so the line has a real history of giving up pressure. Tennessee improved sharply from 3.5 last season, which is the number more likely to slide back. Pressure on Houston's passer can stall drives in Tennessee.

  • HOU: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to TEN's 2

    1.5 SACKS

    Houston is averaging 3.5 sacks a game, Tennessee 2, both over four games. That is a strong Texans rush, though four games is not enough to rule out a soft run of opposing lines, and the sheet does not say who they faced. Sack totals tend to come back toward average. In this matchup, the Titans' quarterback is likely to be under steady pressure, which points toward drives stalling and fewer points for Tennessee.

  • TEN: 9.3 sack yards lost per game to HOU's 20.5

    11.3 YDS

    HOU is at 20.5 sack yards lost per game over 4 games; TEN is at 9.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 20.8 over 17 games and TEN at 26.1 over 17 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • HOU: 21 points per game to TEN's 13.8

    7.3 PPG

    HOU is at 21 points per game over 4 games; TEN is at 13.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 23.8 over 17 games and TEN at 16.7 over 17 games.

  • HOU: 29:12 time of possession per game to TEN's 24:19

    4:53 TOP

    HOU is at 29:12 time of possession per game over 4 games; TEN is at 24:19 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 31:49 over 17 games and TEN at 29:08 over 17 games.

  • HOU @ TEN carries a 37.5 market total

    37.5

    At 37.5, Houston at Tennessee sits 6 points below the slate median, so the market expects a grind with long drives and few big plays. The sheet gives no injury or matchup detail to explain it, so the price is the read here. Low totals like this are fragile: one defensive score or a short field after a turnover can knock it over. If you think either offense can break a long play, this number gives you very little room.

  • TEN: 20.8 points allowed per game to HOU's 27.3

    6.5 PPG

    HOU is at 27.3 points allowed per game over 4 games; TEN is at 20.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 17.4 over 17 games and TEN at 28.1 over 17 games.

  • HOU: 63.5 offensive plays per game to TEN's 53.8

    9.8 PLAYS

    HOU is at 63.5 offensive plays per game over 4 games; TEN is at 53.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 64 over 17 games and TEN at 59.1 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

  • HOU: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to TEN's 1.25

    0.75 TO

    HOU is at 0.5 turnovers committed per game over 4 games; TEN is at 1.25 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 0.71 over 17 games and TEN at 1.12 over 17 games.

  • HOU: 0 interceptions thrown per game to TEN's 0.5

    0.5 INT

    HOU is at 0 interceptions thrown per game over 4 games; TEN is at 0.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 0.53 over 17 games and TEN at 0.47 over 17 games.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • HOU: 5.5 yards per play to TEN's 4.85

    0.65 Y/P

    Houston is gaining more ground on each snap than Tennessee, and its last game showed how: 8 plays of 20 or more yards, led by C.J. Stroud hitting Jaylin Noel for 52 and Nico Collins for 45. Both teams are up from last season, Houston from 5.1 and Tennessee from 4.38, over just 4 games. Tennessee's offense leans on Cam Ward finding Carnell Tate, while Houston's lives on the deep ball, so this spot hinges on whether Tennessee can keep Stroud's shots in front of them.

MISMATCH

  • HOU: 264.8 pass yards a game to TEN's 172.3

    264.8 VS 172.3

    The widest gap between these two is pass yards a game: HOU threw for 264.8 passing yards a game over 4 games; TEN threw for 172.3 passing yards a game over 4 games this season. Last season HOU was at 218.1 over 17 games and TEN at 166.1 over 17 games.

COVERAGE

  • TEN: 209.8 passing yards allowed per game to HOU's 260

    50.3 YPG

    Tennessee is allowing 209.8 passing yards a game, while Houston is giving up 260, both over four games. Houston's number is high for a defense that is also strong against the run, and part of that can come from opponents throwing more when they fall behind. Over four games both numbers can move. For this game, the Titans' passing game has more room to work than Houston's does.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

  • HOU lead the series with TEN since 2025

    2-0 SERIES

    Houston has won both, but in different ways. The first was a 26-0 shutout at home, the second a 16-13 escape in Tennessee. The Titans have scored 13 points in two games against this Texans defense. This one is in Tennessee, where the last meeting came down to a field goal, so the road game has been the closer spot.

REPLACEMENT

  • Tank Dell (WR) is ir-r for HOU

    IR-R

    Tank Dell will not play at Tennessee: Houston ruled him out with a knee injury on Oct 9, and his designation marks him as returning from injured reserve. That leaves the Texans receiver room a body short for this game. Any Houston receiver prop should be priced as if Dell's targets go to someone else on the roster.

  • Joshua Williams (CB) is ir-r for TEN

    IR-R

    Tennessee cornerback Joshua Williams was downgraded to out with a pectoral injury on Oct 10, so he will not face Houston. He carries a return-from-IR tag, meaning he was working back toward the lineup before this setback. With Houston also missing Tank Dell, the Titans secondary loses a body while the Texans receiving group is thinned too.

  • Braden Smith (OT) is ir-r for HOU

    IR-R

    Houston right tackle Braden Smith was downgraded to out with a foot injury on Oct 11, so he will not play at Tennessee. He is listed as returning from injured reserve, and the late downgrade means the Texans had to adjust the line close to kickoff. A backup tackle starting is a reason to look harder at Tennessee's pass rush in this matchup.

  • Jaylin Smith (CB) is on injured reserve for HOU

    IR

    Texans cornerback Jaylin Smith was placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury on Oct 7, so he is out for the Tennessee game and more beyond it. That trims Houston's cornerback depth for this trip. It matters more if another Texans corner goes down during the game.

  • British Brooks (RB) is on injured reserve for HOU

    IR

    Houston running back British Brooks went on injured reserve with a hamstring injury on Oct 3, which keeps him out at Tennessee. Injured reserve means a multi-week absence, so this is no game-time question. Whatever work he had in the Texans backfield goes to the other backs on the roster.

  • Mario Edwards Jr. (DT) is on injured reserve for HOU

    IR

    Houston defensive tackle Mario Edwards Jr. went on injured reserve on Oct 1 and will miss the Tennessee game. No injury was listed. His snaps on the interior go to the other Texans tackles, which thins their rotation against the Titans run game.

  • Fernando Carmona (G) is on injured reserve for TEN

    IR

    The Titans placed Carmona (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 30.

  • Jackson Slater (G) is on injured reserve for TEN

    IR

    The Titans placed Slater (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 30.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Amani Hooker

    Out

    Concussion · Did not practice · Out

  • David Martin-Robinson

    Questionable

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Questionable

  • Kayden McDonald

    Questionable

    Ankle · Full practice · Questionable

  • Ed Ingram

    Questionable

    Illness · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Aireontae Ersery

    Questionable

    Illness · Did not practice · Questionable

  • Blake Fisher

    Questionable

    Illness · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Carnell Tate

    Questionable

    Back · Limited practice · Questionable

  • M.J. Stewart

    Questionable

    Knee · Full practice · Questionable

  • Jadeveon Clowney

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Trent Brown

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Marcus Harris

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Kevin Winston Jr.

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Nico Collins

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Gunnar Helm

    FP

    Full practice

  • Logan Hall

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jeffery Simmons

    FP

    Full practice

  • Nate Thomas

    FP

    Coach's Decision · Full practice

  • Wade Woodaz

    FP

    Full practice

  • Azeez Al-Shaair

    FP

    Full practice

  • John Franklin-Myers

    FP

    Full practice

  • Tony Pollard

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jamal Hill

    FP

    Full practice

  • Will Anderson Jr.

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • HOU: 264.8 team passing yards per game to TEN's 172.3

    92.5 YPG

    Houston throws for far more per game than Tennessee, so expect the Texans to lean on the pass while the Titans try to grind. Four games in, Houston is up from 218.1 last season and Tennessee sits near its 166.1 from last year. The Titans' number looks like who they are; Houston's jump is a four-game sample and could cool. In this spot, think about Houston's passing volume dictating pace, with Tennessee less likely to keep up through the air.

  • HOU: 20.3 first downs per game to TEN's 15.8

    4.5 FD

    HOU is at 20.3 first downs per game over 4 games; TEN is at 15.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 19 over 17 games and TEN at 15.4 over 17 games.

  • HOU: 6.7 yards per pass attempt to TEN's 5.72

    0.98 Y/A

    HOU is at 6.7 yards per pass attempt over 4 games; TEN is at 5.72 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 6.2 over 17 games and TEN at 4.5 over 17 games.

  • HOU: 1.75 fourth-down attempts per game to TEN's 1

    0.75 ATT/G

    HOU is at 1.75 fourth-down attempts per game over 4 games; TEN is at 1 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season HOU was at 1.12 over 17 games and TEN at 2.06 over 17 games.

  • HOU (0-4) at TEN (0-4), a division game

    -3 PT GAP

    Both teams are 0-4 on 4-game losing streaks, Houston at -25 and Tennessee at -28. Those margins are modest for winless clubs, which means both have lost close games. Houston is 0-1 on the road and Tennessee 0-2 at home. One of these streaks ends in this division game, and the point totals give neither team a clear edge.

STREAK

  • HOU has lost 4 straight

    L4

    Houston has not won a game yet, four tries in and four losses. Four games is a small sample, and nothing on the sheet says who they lost to or by how much. The opponent here is Tennessee, also 0-4, so one of these winless teams leaves with a win. With both sides in the same hole, the records cancel out, and the spread is where to look for how the market separates them.

AFTER GARY

  • TEN +7 → +6.5

    GARY +0.5

    Gary's number was 7; the same book now shows 6.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 8, 2026 at 4:52 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    WOODY MARKSRUSHING RECEIVING YARDS UNDER 46.5
    NFLHouston Texans· -115

    Woody Marks
    Rushing Receiving Yards under 46.5

    -115 · LOST · ACTUAL 85

    Houston Texans

    I'm taking Woody Marks under 46.5 rushing plus receiving yards at -115.

    This number still prices Marks like the back he was last year, when he was getting around 17 touches a game. That job belongs to David Montgomery now. Montgomery has taken the larger share of snaps in every game. Over the last two weeks Marks played 24 of 55 snaps and then 20 of 54, with 6 and 5 carries. His combined yardage this season, newest first, is 22, 21, 35 and 40. The 35 came in the one game where he caught five passes, and he is seeing very few targets otherwise: 9 of Houston's 138 on the season.

    The matchup doesn't help him much. Houston has run for 3.3 yards a carry in each of the last three games, and Tennessee is one of six teams that hasn't allowed a 20-yard run this year. A back getting six or seven carries needs a big gain to reach 47, and the Titans haven't given those up. Their defense is holding running backs to about three and a half yards a carry.

    The strongest case against this: Montgomery is averaging 2.7 a carry, and Nick Caley said this week he won't give up on the run. He wants to find improvement through different schemes and different deployments. If that means more of the split goes to Marks, or if Houston gets ahead and runs out the clock, the carries could add up. Marks also showed last season he can clear this number with a bigger workload, and a single screen that breaks open would erase most of the cushion. Still, nothing reported this week points to his role changing, so I'll go with the usage he's actually had.

  • GARY'S PICK
    CARNELL TATERECEIVING YARDS OVER 46.5
    NFLTennessee Titans· -113

    Carnell Tate
    Receiving Yards over 46.5

    -113 · LOST · ACTUAL 6

    Tennessee Titans

    I'm taking Carnell Tate over 46.5 receiving yards at -113.

    The rookie's role keeps growing. His targets have gone 6, 5, 9 and 12, and he has drawn 26 of Tennessee's 80 targets over the last three weeks, which makes him the clear first read. Last week in Baltimore he caught nine passes for 145 yards, including the best throw Cam Ward has made all year. Even with Brian Daboll calling a run-first game, Ward throws about 30 passes, and the targets are going to Tate before anyone else.

    Houston's secondary has been easy to throw on. Wide receivers have 830 yards against the Texans in four games, CeeDee Lamb caught 17 passes on them last Sunday, and Reed Blankenship has given up 11 yards per target in coverage. The Texans are also switching defensive play callers this week, with DeMeco Ryans taking over and Azeez Al-Shaair coming back to handle communication. That's a lot of change for a unit that has been struggling to communicate.

    The main concern is his back. Tate showed up on the report Thursday with tightness, was limited Friday and is listed questionable. Saleh says he's good to go, but if that back tightens up during the game, his snaps could drop quickly. His two home games so far produced only 27 and 38 yards. Houston's pass rush, with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, can also force Ward to get rid of the ball before downfield routes develop. This is a four-game sample on a rookie, so I'm keeping my confidence measured. I'm still betting on the target trend at a line set well below where his recent workload has been.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.

Get Gary on the App Store

Every NFL game this dayThe NFL recordToday's NFL picksEvery sport this day