New York Giants at Houston Texans
O/U 42.5 · SPREAD Houston Texans -10.5 · NRG Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- New York Giants +10.5 -118
- Published odds
- -118
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 27-21
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 52 moves| Market | Opened Oct 19 6:00 AM | Close Sun 12:51 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Houston Texans -9 (-108) | Houston Texans -10 (-105) | +1 |
| TOTAL | 43.5 (-110) | 42.5 (-110) | −1 |
| MONEYLINE | Houston Texans -450 | Houston Texans -475 | −25 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 19 6:00 AM | Houston Texans -9 (-108) | 43.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -450 · New York Giants +340 |
| Oct 19 6:30 AM | Houston Texans -9 (-108) | 43.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -450 · New York Giants +350 |
| Oct 19 7:31 AM | Houston Texans -9 (-110) | 43.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -450 · New York Giants +350 |
| Oct 19 10:01 AM | Houston Texans -8.5 (-118) | 43.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -450 · New York Giants +350 |
| Oct 19 10:31 AM | Houston Texans -9 (-110) | 43.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -450 · New York Giants +350 |
| Oct 19 11:31 AM | Houston Texans -9 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Houston Texans -450 · New York Giants +350 |
| Oct 19 12:01 PM | Houston Texans -9 (-110) | 43 (-108) | Houston Texans -450 · New York Giants +340 |
| Oct 19 1:01 PM | Houston Texans -9 (-110) | 43 (-108) | Houston Texans -450 · New York Giants +340 |
| Oct 19 1:31 PM | Houston Texans -9.5 (-110) | 43 (-108) | Houston Texans -450 · New York Giants +360 |
| Oct 19 2:01 PM | Houston Texans -9.5 (-110) | 42.5 (-112) | Houston Texans -450 · New York Giants +350 |
| Oct 19 3:01 PM | Houston Texans -9.5 (-112) | 42.5 (-120) | Houston Texans -450 · New York Giants +360 |
| Oct 19 4:01 PM | Houston Texans -9 (-120) | 43 (-108) | Houston Texans -450 · New York Giants +350 |
| Oct 19 5:01 PM | Houston Texans -9.5 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Houston Texans -450 · New York Giants +350 |
| Oct 19 6:16 PM | Houston Texans -9.5 (-110) | 42.5 (-118) | Houston Texans -450 · New York Giants +350 |
| Oct 19 6:46 PM | Houston Texans -9.5 (-110) | 43 (-108) | Houston Texans -450 · New York Giants +350 |
| Oct 19 7:17 PM | Houston Texans -9.5 (-112) | 43 (-108) | Houston Texans -475 · New York Giants +375 |
| Oct 19 9:10 PM | Houston Texans -9.5 (-112) | 43 (-108) | Houston Texans -450 · New York Giants +350 |
| Oct 19 9:47 PM | Houston Texans -9.5 (-112) | 43 (-108) | Houston Texans -475 · New York Giants +375 |
| Oct 19 10:24 PM | Houston Texans -9.5 (-112) | 43 (-108) | Houston Texans -475 · New York Giants +360 |
| Oct 20 12:25 AM | Houston Texans -9.5 (-110) | 43 (-108) | Houston Texans -475 · New York Giants +360 |
| Oct 20 6:00 AM | Houston Texans -9.5 (-110) | 43 (-108) | Houston Texans -450 · New York Giants +360 |
| Oct 20 11:44 AM | Houston Texans -9.5 (-110) | 43 (-108) | Houston Texans -475 · New York Giants +360 |
| Oct 20 5:47 PM | Houston Texans -10 (-108) | 43 (-108) | Houston Texans -500 · New York Giants +380 |
| Oct 20 6:47 PM | Houston Texans -10 (-110) | 43 (-108) | Houston Texans -500 · New York Giants +380 |
| Oct 20 9:47 PM | Houston Texans -10 (-110) | 43 (-108) | Houston Texans -500 · New York Giants +400 |
| Oct 21 9:00 AM | Houston Texans -10 (-110) | 43 (-108) | Houston Texans -500 · New York Giants +380 |
| Oct 21 3:32 PM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-105) | 43 (-108) | Houston Texans -500 · New York Giants +380 |
| Oct 21 4:32 PM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Houston Texans -500 · New York Giants +380 |
| Oct 21 5:32 PM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-108) | 43 (-108) | Houston Texans -500 · New York Giants +380 |
| Thu 9:00 AM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Houston Texans -500 · New York Giants +400 |
| Thu 11:28 AM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-108) | 43 (-105) | Houston Texans -500 · New York Giants +380 |
| Thu 12:58 PM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-108) | 42.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -500 · New York Giants +400 |
| Fri 1:32 PM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-108) | 42.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -500 · New York Giants +380 |
| Fri 8:00 PM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-112) | Houston Texans -500 · New York Giants +380 |
| Sat 4:45 AM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-110) | 42.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -500 · New York Giants +380 |
| Sat 9:31 AM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -500 · New York Giants +380 |
| Sat 10:32 AM | Houston Texans -10 (-112) | 42.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -500 · New York Giants +400 |
| Sat 11:32 AM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -500 · New York Giants +380 |
| Sat 11:04 PM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -475 · New York Giants +375 |
| Sun 4:45 AM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-110) | 42.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -500 · New York Giants +380 |
| Sun 7:21 AM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-108) | 42.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -525 · New York Giants +400 |
| Sun 7:31 AM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Houston Texans -500 · New York Giants +400 |
| Sun 7:41 AM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-108) | 42.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -525 · New York Giants +400 |
| Sun 8:52 AM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Houston Texans -525 · New York Giants +400 |
| Sun 9:11 AM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Houston Texans -525 · New York Giants +400 |
| Sun 9:20 AM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-108) | 43 (-105) | Houston Texans -525 · New York Giants +400 |
| Sun 9:31 AM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-108) | 42.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -500 · New York Giants +380 |
| Sun 11:41 AM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-108) | 42.5 (-112) | Houston Texans -500 · New York Giants +400 |
| Sun 11:51 AM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-108) | 42.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -475 · New York Giants +375 |
| Sun 12:21 PM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-108) | Houston Texans -450 · New York Giants +360 |
| Sun 12:30 PM | Houston Texans -10.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-108) | Houston Texans -475 · New York Giants +375 |
| Sun 12:41 PM | Houston Texans -10 (-112) | 42.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -475 · New York Giants +375 |
| CLOSESun 12:51 PM | Houston Texans -10 (-105) | 42.5 (-110) | Houston Texans -475 · New York Giants +375 |
The read
J.J. McCarthy makes a first Giants start in Houston, less than a month after the trade, with both teams heading into the bye and the Texans laying 10.5 at home. That's a big number for two teams that have looked a lot closer than that over six weeks.
Houston's case is real. The Giants' secondary is in pieces. Jevon Holland and Tremaine Edmunds both played every snap last week, and both are out. Greg Newsome II is out, Brian Burns is on IR, Tyler Nubin is questionable and Paulson Adebo just came off IR. C.J. Stroud has 9 TD against 1 INT, Nico Collins is healthy and Marvin Harrison Jr. plays his second game. The Texans will score.
But Houston's back end is gutted too. Both starting safeties, Jalen Pitre and Reed Blankenship, are out, a week after Jacksonville put up 412 yards on this defense. That's an opening for Malik Nabers, who has 165 and 121 yards the last two weeks, and Isaiah Likely, who has 5 TD. The Giants have scored 28, 36, 27 and 27 in four of six games.
The season also says these teams aren't 10 points apart. Houston has one double-digit win, 26-3 at Tennessee. Its other results were 31-36, 6-20, 17-19, 30-34 and 34-31. Bump Houston up for a tougher schedule and the Giants down for the injuries, and this still reads like a touchdown spread.
Some things don't matter here. David Montgomery is out, but he had 52 carries for 138 yards. Tank Dell's return will be limited. Results against Dallas and Tennessee, common opponents, tell us nothing. The Giants' four-turnover day last week doesn't mean they're due for anything.
The worry is the line in front of McCarthy. The Giants allowed 5 sacks last week, and Jermaine Eluemunor and Marcus Mbow are both questionable. If both sit, this gets thin. As it stands, the number asks Houston to do something it's done once all year, against an offense with a real path to 20-plus. I'll take the points. It's a lean, not a hammer.
Injuries noted
New York Giants: Gunner Olszewski (IR) — Olszewski (Achilles) was placed on injured reserve by the Giants on Monday, Dan Salomone of the team's official site reports.; Roy Robertson-Harris (IR) — ir; Rico Payton (IR) — Payton (undisclosed) reverted to injured reserve Wednesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Jarrick Bernard-Converse (IR) — ir; Thaddeus Dixon (IR); Calvin Austin III (IR) — The Giants placed Austin (knee) on injured reserve Thursday, Patricia Traina of SI.com reports.; Korie Black (IR-R) — Black (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Giants on Monday, Dan Salomone and Matt Citak of the team's official site report.; Paulson Adebo (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Knee); practice: Limited. The Giants activated Adebo (knee) from injured reserve Saturday, Dan Duggan of The Athletic reports.; Chauncey Golston (IR) — The Giants placed Golston (neck) on injured reserve Saturday, Dan Salomone of the Giants' official site reports.; Jaxson Dart (IR) — Dart recently underwent surgery to repair the meniscus and MCL in his left knee, Dan Duggan of The Athletic reports.; Brian Burns (IR) — The Giants placed Burns (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Dan Salomone of the team's official site reports.; Braxton Berrios (IR) — Berrios (foot) underwent successful surgery Friday to repair a Lisfranc injury, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports.; Tyler Nubin (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Neck); practice: Limited. questionable; Theo Johnson (Doubtful) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Doubtful (Neck); practice: DNP. Johnson (neck) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports.; Greg Newsome II (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Concussion); practice: DNP. Newsome (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Texans.; Tremaine Edmunds (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Shoulder); practice: DNP. Edmunds (chest) was placed on injured reserve Saturday, Dan Duggan of The Athletic reports.; Jermaine Eluemunor (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Calf); practice: Limited.; Marcus Mbow (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Knee); practice: Limited. questionable; Jevon Holland (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Concussion); practice: Limited. Holland (concussion) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Texans, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports.
Houston Texans: E.J. Speed (PUP-R) — Speed (quadriceps) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Texans on Sunday.; Graham Mertz (IR) — ir; Solomon Byrd (IR) — Byrd (ankle) reverted to the Texans' injured-reserve list Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Ali Gaye (IR) — The Texans placed Gaye (knee) on injured reserve Sunday.; Sam Hagen (IR) — The Texans placed Hagen (undisclosed) on injured reserve Tuesday, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports.; Jayden Higgins (IR) — ir; Dylan Horton (IR) — The Texans placed Horton (Achilles) on injured reserve Tuesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; K.C. Ossai (IR) — The Texans placed Ossai (undisclosed) on injured reserve Saturday.; Jake Hummel (IR) — Hummel isn't expected to resume practicing this week while he continues to recover from groin surgery, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Mario Edwards Jr. (IR) — The Texans placed Edwards on injured reserve Wednesday.; British Brooks (IR) — Brooks (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve Friday.; Jaylin Smith (IR) — Smith (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve by the Texans on Tuesday.; David Montgomery (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Groin); practice: DNP. Montgomery (groin) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Giants, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.; Jalen Pitre (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Shoulder); practice: DNP. Pitre (shoulder) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Giants, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.; Reed Blankenship (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Concussion); practice: DNP. Blankenship (concussion/hand) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Giants, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.; Jawhar Jordan (Out) — Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans said that Jordan was placed on the practice squad injured list Wednesday due to a quadriceps injury, DJ Bien-Aime of ESPN.com reports.; Blake Fisher (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Thumb); practice: DNP. Fisher (thumb) has been ruled out against the Giants on Sunday, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.; Tank Dell (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Knee); practice: Full.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
C.J. Stroud is the projected starting quarterback for HOU
7.83 Y/AThrough 6 games in 2026, C.J. Stroud threw for 1714 passing yards, completed 65.3% of his passes and averaged 7.83 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3041 yards, completed 64.5% and averaged 7.19 yards per attempt, 19-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 9-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 6 games in.
J.J. McCarthy is the projected starting quarterback for NYG
11.57 Y/AThrough 2 games in 2026, J.J. McCarthy threw for 243 passing yards, completed 52.4% of his passes and averaged 11.57 yards per attempt. Last season over 10 games he threw for 1632 yards, completed 57.6% and averaged 6.72 yards per attempt, 11-12 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
TRENCHES
HOU: 83 rushing yards allowed per game to NYG's 135.5
52.5 YPGHouston allows 83 rushing yards a game while the Giants give up 135.5, both over 6 games. Six games is a reasonable sample, and when combined with Houston's sack rate, it points to a defensive front controlling the line. For Giants at Texans, Houston's backs have the easier ground matchup, and the Giants may be forced to throw into the pressure.
NYG: 104.8 rushing yards per game to HOU's 84.8
20 YPGNYG is at 104.8 rushing yards per game over 6 games; HOU is at 84.8 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season NYG was at 129.1 over 17 games and HOU at 108.9 over 17 games.
PASS RUSH
HOU: 3 sacks recorded per game to NYG's 1.33
1.67 SACKSHouston has 3 sacks a game across 6 games, while the Giants have 1.33 over the same span. Six games is enough to say the Texans rush finishes plays more often, though opponent offensive lines shape both numbers. For Giants at Texans, the New York quarterback should see more pressure than Houston's, which favors Texans sack props and points to shorter Giants drives.
PACE & SCRIPT
NYG: 33:11 time of possession per game to HOU's 30:11
3:01 TOPNYG is at 33:11 time of possession per game over 6 games; HOU is at 30:11 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season NYG was at 30:58 over 17 games and HOU at 31:49 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
HOU: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to NYG's 1.83
1.33 TOHouston turns it over just 0.5 times a game over 6 games, near its 0.71 last season, so ball security is a real trait. The Giants are at 1.83, up sharply from 1 a year ago. Turnovers swing week to week, so the Giants' rate likely settles somewhat. The gap still favors Houston in a game where short fields and extra possessions can decide it.
HOU: 0.17 interceptions thrown per game to NYG's 1
0.83 INTNYG is at 1 interceptions thrown per game over 6 games; HOU is at 0.17 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season NYG was at 0.59 over 17 games and HOU at 0.53 over 17 games.
NYG: 1.5 takeaways per game to HOU's 1
0.5 TONYG is at 1.5 takeaways per game over 6 games; HOU is at 1 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.
HOU: 0.33 fumbles lost per game to NYG's 0.83
0.5 FUMNYG is at 0.83 fumbles lost per game over 6 games; HOU is at 0.33 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season NYG was at 0.41 over 17 games and HOU at 0.18 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
HOU: 5.73 yards per play to NYG's 4.95
0.78 Y/PHouston gains 5.73 yards a snap to the Giants' 4.95, and Houston sat at 5.1 last season, so that is a real step up over 6 games. In their last games, the Giants had 8 plays of 20-plus yards and Houston had 5, so the Giants can still hit big shots, with J.J. McCarthy finding Charlie Jones and Malik Nabers deep. Houston is steadier play to play, while the Giants rely more on chunk plays, which swing harder from week to week.
RED ZONE
HOU: 62.5% red-zone scoring allowed to NYG's 75%
12.5 PPNYG is at 75% red-zone scoring allowed over 6 games; HOU is at 62.5% over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.
MISMATCH
HOU: 0.5 turnovers a game to NYG's 1.83
0.5 VS 1.83Houston gives the ball away half a time a game over six games, close to its 0.71 last season, while New York is at 1.83, up from 1 a year ago. The Giants have to protect the ball against a team that rarely hands back extra possessions. Turnovers swing a lot, so New York's rate could settle toward last season's. A game where one side gifts short fields usually tilts toward the cleaner team.
COVERAGE
NYG: 190.2 passing yards allowed per game to HOU's 246
55.8 YPGThe Giants have allowed 190.2 passing yards a game over 6 games, and Houston has allowed 246 over 6. Passing yards depend on game script, since teams protecting a lead face more throws, and the sheet does not say how these games played out. Still the Texans pass defense has given up a lot more through the air. For this game, the Giants passing attack has the friendlier matchup, which is useful when thinking about passing yard props.
REPLACEMENT
Jaylin Noel (WR) is questionable for HOU
QUESTIONABLENoel was seen in a walking boot after Sunday's 27-21 overtime loss to the Giants, with a toe injury. Questionable leaves the door open, but a boot right after the game points toward a tougher path to playing. The sheet names no replacement, so wait for practice participation before trusting any Houston receiver prop tied to his snaps.
Cam Skattebo (RB) is questionable for NYG
QUESTIONABLESkattebo said after Sunday's 27-21 overtime win at Houston that he felt something in his hamstring on his final carry of the game. Questionable means he has a real chance to play but nothing is settled, and a hamstring felt late in a game is the kind of issue that can linger or clear up within the week. The sheet does not name a backup, so watch practice reports before leaning on any Giants rushing number.
Braxton Berrios (WR) is on injured reserve for NYG
IRBerrios had surgery to repair a Lisfranc injury in his foot, so he's on injured reserve and out against the Texans. Lisfranc repairs usually mean a long absence, so the Giants' receiver group should look like this for a while.
Tremaine Edmunds (LB) is on injured reserve for NYG
IRThe Giants placed Edmunds on injured reserve Saturday with a chest injury, so he misses Sunday's game in Houston. Losing a linebacker the day before the game leaves the middle of the Giants' defense thinner than planned. If you're weighing Texans running backs or tight ends, his absence is part of the picture.
Jake Hummel (LB) is on injured reserve for HOU
IRHummel is on injured reserve recovering from groin surgery and isn't expected to resume practicing this week. That rules him out against the Giants and means his return is still a ways off, so the Texans' linebacker group won't change.
PRACTICE REPORT
Jalen Pitre
OutShoulder · Did not practice · Out
David Montgomery
OutGroin · Did not practice · Out
Reed Blankenship
OutConcussion, Hand · Did not practice · Out
Greg Newsome II
OutConcussion · Did not practice · Out
Jevon Holland
OutConcussion · Limited practice · Out
Blake Fisher
OutThumb · Did not practice · Out
Theo Johnson
DoubtfulNeck · Did not practice · Doubtful
Tyler Nubin
QuestionableNeck · Limited practice · Questionable
Tank Dell
QuestionableKnee · Full practice · Questionable
Jermaine Eluemunor
QuestionableCalf · Limited practice · Questionable
Paulson Adebo
QuestionableKnee · Limited practice · Questionable
Marcus Mbow
QuestionableKnee · Limited practice · Questionable
Jadeveon Clowney
DNPDid not practice
Nico Collins
LPLimited practice
Andrew Thomas
LPLimited practice
Will Anderson Jr.
LPLimited practice
Ed Ingram
FPFull practice
Charlie Jones
FPFull practice
Trent Brown
FPFull practice
Jordan Stout
FPFull practice
Colton Hood
FPFull practice
Ja'Marcus Ingram
FPFull practice
Thomas Fidone II
FPFull practice
Chris Manhertz
FPFull practice
Kayvon Thibodeaux
FPFull practice
Dalton Schultz
FPFull practice
Brevin Jordan
FPFull practice
Darnell Mooney
FPFull practice
Logan Hall
FPFull practice
Azeez Al-Shaair
FPFull practice
Henry To'oTo'o
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
NYG: 66.7% fourth-down conversion rate to HOU's 28.6%
38.1 PPThe Giants convert 66.7% on fourth down, up from 46.2% last season, while Houston has fallen to 28.6% from 57.9%. Fourth-down rates swing on a handful of tries, so both should move back toward last season. Houston's drop is the bigger outlier and likely to recover. Avoid assuming either team will keep converting at this pace in the moments that decide the game.
NYG (3-2-1) at HOU (2-4)
+5 PT GAPThe Giants are 3-2-1 but -4 on the year, and they have not won on the road in two tries. Houston is 2-4 yet +1, so the Texans have played better than their record, and they have won two straight. They are also 0-3 at home, which is odd for a team with a positive margin. Houston's point total says this record undersells them, so the Giants' better mark may not mean much here.
AFTER GARY
NYG +10.5 → +10.5
GARY +0.42PPGary's number was 10.5; the same book now shows 10.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 22, 2026 at 4:21 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
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Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKC.J. STROUDPASSING YARDS OVER 247.5
Houston is laying 10.5, and C.J. Stroud is how the Texans get there. David Montgomery and Jawhar Jordan are both out, which leaves Woody Marks as the only real back. Marks has 205 yards on 58 carries this year. The Texans throw it, and they throw it best at home: 274 against Buffalo, 353 against Cincinnati, 347 against Dallas.
The Giants' secondary is why I like this number. Jevon Holland and Tremaine Edmunds both played every snap last week, and both are out. Greg Newsome II is out. Tyler Nubin is questionable, and Paulson Adebo just came off IR after one partial game in September. Brian Burns is on IR, and without him the Giants got zero sacks and one QB hit on Tyler Shough last week. Stroud should have time against a back end full of backups, with Nico Collins healthy and Dalton Schultz, Jaylin Noel and Marvin Harrison Jr. working underneath.
The passing yards the Giants have allowed look modest, but opponents ran for 202 and 175 yards against them the last two weeks and didn't need to throw. Houston can't lean on the run with this backfield, so the Texans will move it through Stroud. He's averaging 286 a game, and I have the Giants keeping this inside the number. A close game keeps him throwing into the fourth quarter.
What beats it is a fast Houston lead built on short fields. The Giants turned it over four times last week. If that happens again, Houston could be up three scores at the half, scoring on 30-yard drives that don't need the arm, then handing it to Marks to run the clock. The roof could also be open with some wind, though 12 mph won't change much. At -115, I'll take Stroud against this secondary.
- GARY'S PICKMALIK NABERSRECEIVING YARDS OVER 68.5
Malik Nabers is the Giants' passing game. He drew 20 targets against Washington and 15 against New Orleans, and he turned them into 121 and 165 yards. Theo Johnson is out at tight end again, so the looks stay concentrated on Nabers and Isaiah Likely.
Houston can't put its regular safeties over the top. Jalen Pitre and Reed Blankenship are both out, which pushes M.J. Stewart and Tremon Smith into bigger roles a week after Jacksonville put 412 yards on this defense. Houston has allowed 1,114 yards to wide receivers in six games, and that was with its starters back there.
J.J. McCarthy throws it down the field. In relief last week he had 243 yards on 11 completions, and Nabers had his biggest day of the season in that game. A first start as a 10.5-point underdog points toward volume, and any stretch where the Giants trail adds throws, most of them aimed at the best receiver on the field.
What beats it is the protection. The Giants gave up five sacks last week, and Jermaine Eluemunor and Marcus Mbow are both questionable. If Houston's front gets home early, McCarthy checks down to Likely and the backs, and a quarterback making his first start for a new team leans on the short stuff anyway. Nabers also had 1 yard against the Rams and 26 against Tennessee, so a quiet day is possible if Houston brackets him. At 68.5, I'm betting on his target volume against a defense without its safeties.
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