Kentucky comes home 6-1 and ranked No. 12 for a night game at Kroger Field, laying 10.5 to a Vanderbilt team that has dropped four straight SEC games. The records say blowout. The play-by-play says something closer. Kentucky has been outgained in all five of its SEC games. At Oklahoma, the Wildcats ran 26 times for 72 yards and threw for 158. They won 21-13 only because of four interceptions, one returned for a touchdown. South Carolina and LSU both ended 35-34 in overtime, and a punt-return score helped against LSU. Kentucky has forced at least two takeaways in every game since the opener and hasn't turned it over in five of seven. Nobody is owed that pace this week. Third downs tell the rest: 1-of-14 against Alabama, 4-of-14 at South Carolina, 5-of-14 against LSU. The biggest SEC win was 31-21 at Texas A&M. Vanderbilt is the lesser team, and the run defense is a real problem. Arkansas scores 19.3 a game and still ran 41 times for 187 in Nashville. But the losing streak includes Georgia and Ole Miss, ranked No. 5 and No. 7, and the Ole Miss blowout came with four Vanderbilt giveaways. Losing Blaze Berlowitz isn't a quarterback change, either. Jared Curtis has thrown the most passes in five of seven games and gives Vanderbilt a real passing game, with Junior Sherrill at 628 yards on 41 catches. LSU threw for 316 and Oklahoma for 270 against this Kentucky secondary. Kentucky's best path to a cover is CJ Baxter. Without Baxter at Oklahoma, Kentucky ran for 72; with Baxter against LSU, 155, including 123 and two scores from Baxter alone. The other path is Curtis, who has 7 interceptions on 161 attempts, two in each of the last two games. Those risks are real. Still, nothing in Kentucky's play-by-play says it should lay double digits to an SEC opponent, and receiver Nic Anderson and linebacker Sam Greene are out. Will Stein's revenge talk is already in the number. Give me the points.
Kentucky comes home 6-1 and ranked No. 12 for a night game at Kroger Field, laying 10.5 to a Vanderbilt team that has dropped four straight SEC games. The records say blowout. The play-by-play says something closer.
Kentucky has been outgained in all five of its SEC games. At Oklahoma, the Wildcats ran 26 times for 72 yards and threw for 158. They won 21-13 only because of four interceptions, one returned for a touchdown. South Carolina and LSU both ended 35-34 in overtime, and a punt-return score helped against LSU. Kentucky has forced at least two takeaways in every game since the opener and hasn't turned it over in five of seven. Nobody is owed that pace this week. Third downs tell the rest: 1-of-14 against Alabama, 4-of-14 at South Carolina, 5-of-14 against LSU. The biggest SEC win was 31-21 at Texas A&M.
Vanderbilt is the lesser team, and the run defense is a real problem. Arkansas scores 19.3 a game and still ran 41 times for 187 in Nashville. But the losing streak includes Georgia and Ole Miss, ranked No. 5 and No. 7, and the Ole Miss blowout came with four Vanderbilt giveaways. Losing Blaze Berlowitz isn't a quarterback change, either. Jared Curtis has thrown the most passes in five of seven games and gives Vanderbilt a real passing game, with Junior Sherrill at 628 yards on 41 catches. LSU threw for 316 and Oklahoma for 270 against this Kentucky secondary.
Kentucky's best path to a cover is CJ Baxter. Without Baxter at Oklahoma, Kentucky ran for 72; with Baxter against LSU, 155, including 123 and two scores from Baxter alone. The other path is Curtis, who has 7 interceptions on 161 attempts, two in each of the last two games. Those risks are real.
Still, nothing in Kentucky's play-by-play says it should lay double digits to an SEC opponent, and receiver Nic Anderson and linebacker Sam Greene are out. Will Stein's revenge talk is already in the number. Give me the points.
Vanderbilt +10.5