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NCAAF · Sat, Sep 26 · 4:15 PM

Vanderbilt Commodores at Auburn Tigers

O/U 55.5 · SPREAD Auburn Tigers -9.5

GARY'S PICK
Vanderbilt +9.5
NCAAF@ Auburn· -110

Vanderbilt
+9.5

-110 · CASHED · VAN 15 · AUB 21

Auburn

The pick & result

Published pick
Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5 -110
Published odds
-110
Result
Won
Final score
15-21

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 57 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 20 4:43 PM
Close
Sep 26 3:59 PM
Move
SPREADAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)Auburn Tigers -10 (-108)+½
TOTAL53.5 (-108)54.5 (-108)+1
MONEYLINEAuburn Tigers -350Auburn Tigers -375−25
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 20 4:43 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)53.5 (-108)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +275
Sep 20 5:43 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)53.5 (-108)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +275
Sep 20 8:44 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-108)54.5 (-112)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 21 12:44 AMAuburn Tigers -9 (-108)54.5 (-110)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +275
Sep 21 6:00 AMAuburn Tigers -9 (-110)54.5 (-110)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +275
Sep 21 8:00 AMAuburn Tigers -9 (-110)54.5 (-112)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +275
Sep 21 10:01 AMAuburn Tigers -9 (-108)55.5 (-108)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +275
Sep 21 12:01 PMAuburn Tigers -9 (-110)55.5 (-110)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +275
Sep 21 1:02 PMAuburn Tigers -8.5 (-110)55.5 (-108)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +275
Sep 21 2:02 PMAuburn Tigers -8.5 (-110)55.5 (-110)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +275
Sep 21 5:03 PMAuburn Tigers -9 (-108)55.5 (-112)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +275
Sep 21 6:03 PMAuburn Tigers -9 (-110)55.5 (-105)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +275
Sep 22 12:06 AMAuburn Tigers -9 (-110)55.5 (-102)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +275
Sep 22 12:33 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-118)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +275
Sep 22 2:17 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-115)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +275
Sep 22 8:28 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-108)54.5 (-115)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 23 6:00 AMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-115)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 23 1:05 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-118)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 23 2:05 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-115)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 23 4:06 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-115)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 23 6:06 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-115)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Sep 23 9:08 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-118)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Sep 23 10:09 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-115)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Sep 24 6:00 AMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-115)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Sep 24 8:00 AMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-112)54.5 (-115)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 24 1:52 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-115)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Sep 24 2:54 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-112)54.5 (-115)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 24 3:24 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-112)54.5 (-115)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 24 6:55 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-112)54.5 (-115)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 24 7:25 PMAuburn Tigers -9 (-120)54.5 (-118)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Sep 25 5:01 AMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)55.5 (-102)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 25 7:00 AMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-118)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 25 10:31 AMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-120)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 25 11:31 AMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)55.5 (-102)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Sep 25 12:01 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)55.5 (-102)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 25 3:33 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)55.5 (-105)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 25 5:13 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)55.5 (-105)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 25 5:23 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)55.5 (-105)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 25 5:53 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-112)55.5 (-105)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 25 6:54 PMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)55.5 (-108)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 25 7:04 PMAuburn Tigers -9 (-118)55.5 (-108)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 25 8:24 PMAuburn Tigers -9 (-120)55.5 (-108)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Sep 25 8:34 PMAuburn Tigers -9 (-118)55.5 (-108)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 26 12:07 AMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)55.5 (-108)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 26 12:37 AMAuburn Tigers -9 (-118)55.5 (-108)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 26 5:00 AMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)55.5 (-105)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Sep 26 8:31 AMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)55.5 (-108)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Sep 26 9:11 AMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)55.5 (-105)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Sep 26 9:22 AMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)55.5 (-105)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 26 9:32 AMAuburn Tigers -9 (-118)55.5 (-108)Auburn Tigers -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Sep 26 9:53 AMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-110)55.5 (-108)Auburn Tigers -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Sep 26 10:34 AMAuburn Tigers -10 (-108)55.5 (-108)Auburn Tigers -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +300
Sep 26 10:54 AMAuburn Tigers -9.5 (-120)55.5 (-108)Auburn Tigers -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +300
Sep 26 11:24 AMAuburn Tigers -10 (-108)55.5 (-108)Auburn Tigers -400 · Vanderbilt Commodores +320
Sep 26 12:37 PMAuburn Tigers -10 (-108)54.5 (-110)Auburn Tigers -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +310
Sep 26 3:08 PMAuburn Tigers -10 (-108)54.5 (-110)Auburn Tigers -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +300
Sep 26 3:38 PMAuburn Tigers -10 (-108)54.5 (-108)Auburn Tigers -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +310
CLOSESep 26 3:59 PMAuburn Tigers -10 (-108)54.5 (-108)Auburn Tigers -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +300

The read

Jordan-Hare hosts Auburn’s Homecoming as Vanderbilt arrives for its SEC opener. Jared Curtis takes his first road start into a matchup between teams still working through defensive breakdowns.

I’m taking Vanderbilt’s points because its pressure gives it a credible way to interrupt Auburn possessions, while Curtis has a matchup he can attack. Vanderbilt has recorded 12 sacks through three games, and Auburn’s own preparation has emphasized identifying blitzes and preventing protection mistakes. Byrum Brown’s experience in this offense matters, but his four interceptions leave room for Vanderbilt’s aggression to influence the game.

Curtis showed something useful against NC State: 277 passing yards and three touchdowns in his first start, including 205 passing yards after halftime. Junior Sherrill and Jayvontay Conner give him productive receiving options against an Auburn defense that allowed Florida 12 explosive plays. Auburn’s coaches identified assignment errors and missed tackles afterward. My judgment is that those vulnerabilities give Vanderbilt enough offensive opportunity to stay competitive even if Curtis encounters difficult stretches.

There are substantial obstacles. Auburn has faced the tougher schedule, ranked 48th against Vanderbilt’s 116th, and Brown’s running ability gives him another answer when pressure arrives. Vanderbilt’s 28.6% passing-down success rate makes early-down execution essential. Its defense also ranks 103rd in explosiveness allowed, so an unsuccessful blitz can become an expensive mistake.

I give Vanderbilt’s ability to disrupt drives and exploit Auburn’s defensive errors more weight at this price. Its defense has allowed 2.611 points per scoring opportunity, providing another route to limiting separation when opponents advance. The dramatic finish against NC State is no foundation for expecting another escape. The foundation here is a disruptive defense paired with a quarterback who has already shown he can make scoring plays against the kind of breakdowns Auburn is trying to fix. That combination earns my bet at +9.5.

Injuries noted

Vanderbilt Commodores: Jaylin Lackey (out) — The initial SEC availability report listed the cornerback out; Clark Lea said Lackey was week-to-week with a soft-tissue injury.; Jamison Curtis (out) — The initial SEC availability report listed the linebacker out; Clark Lea said Curtis was week-to-week with a soft-tissue injury.; Aaron Bryant (out for season) — The initial SEC report listed the defensive lineman out for Auburn, and Lea previously announced that a torn ACL would end his season.; Nikhil Jefferson (out) — The initial SEC availability report listed the defensive lineman out; no condition was disclosed in the retrieved report.; Cole Spence (questionable) — The initial SEC report listed the projected starting tight end questionable. Lea described him as day-to-day after he missed Vanderbilt's first three games.; Brian Allen Jr. (probable) — The initial SEC availability report listed the edge defender probable.

Auburn Tigers: Tai Buster (out) — The initial SEC availability reporting ruled the offensive lineman out; he has been dealing with a foot injury and has not played this season.; Jack Leyrer (questionable) — The initial SEC availability reporting listed the left guard as questionable.; Hunter Herring (questionable) — The initial SEC availability reporting listed the tight end as questionable after he missed the Florida game.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Jared Curtis is VAN's projected starter

    8.42 Y/A

    Jared Curtis is VAN's projected starting quarterback. Current-week official reporting describes the Auburn trip as Curtis' first road game after his first career start against NC State. It does not contain an explicit same-week start announcement, so he is projected rather than confirmed. 2026 line: 547 passing yards, 63.1% completions, 8.42 yards per attempt, 4-2 TD-INT over 3 games.

  • Byrum Brown is AUB's projected starter

    7.68 Y/A

    Byrum Brown is AUB's projected starting quarterback. A Sept. 24 Vanderbilt-game preview identifies Brown as Auburn's quarterback and discusses his expected role Saturday; Auburn also designated him QB1 on Sept. 18. No same-week source explicitly announced the starter, so he is projected rather than confirmed. 2026 line: 753 passing yards, 64.3% completions, 7.68 yards per attempt, 5-4 TD-INT over 3 games.

TRENCHES

  • AUB: 191.7 rushing yards per game to VAN's 139.7

    52 YPG

    Auburn is running for 191.7 yards a game through three games, Vanderbilt for 139.7. Last season they were nearly even, 176.8 for Auburn and 175.5 for Vanderbilt, so Vanderbilt's dip is the change to watch. Three games is a small sample, and Vanderbilt's full season says the run game is better than this. Auburn at home is more likely to control the ground game.

MISMATCH

  • AUB: 191.7 rush yards a game to VAN's 139.7

    191.7 VS 139.7

    Auburn is running for 191.7 yards a game through 3 games, up a bit from 176.8 last season. Vanderbilt is at 139.7 after 175.5 last year. Auburn's number sits close to its track record, while Vanderbilt's dip over 3 games may be the one that moves back up. Auburn's ground game at home looks steady, and Vanderbilt's run game is the bigger unknown.

REPLACEMENT

  • Aaron Bryant (DL) is out for the season for VAN

    OUT FOR SEASON

    The initial SEC report listed the defensive lineman out for Auburn, and Lea previously announced that a torn ACL would end his season. Vanderbilt Football Initial Injury Report Ahead of Trip to Auburn (2026-09-24)

  • Tai Buster (OL) is out for AUB

    OUT

    The initial SEC availability reporting ruled the offensive lineman out; he has been dealing with a foot injury and has not played this season. Auburn faces left-guard decision with Jack Leyrer questionable (2026-09-24)

  • Nikhil Jefferson (DL) is out for VAN

    OUT

    The initial SEC availability report listed the defensive lineman out; no condition was disclosed in the retrieved report. Vanderbilt Football Initial Injury Report Ahead of Trip to Auburn (2026-09-24)

  • Jamison Curtis (LB) is out for VAN

    OUT

    The initial SEC availability report listed the linebacker out; Clark Lea said Curtis was week-to-week with a soft-tissue injury. Vanderbilt Football Initial Injury Report Ahead of Trip to Auburn (2026-09-24)

  • Jaylin Lackey (CB) is out for VAN

    OUT

    The initial SEC availability report listed the cornerback out; Clark Lea said Lackey was week-to-week with a soft-tissue injury. Vanderbilt Football Initial Injury Report Ahead of Trip to Auburn (2026-09-24)

SITUATIONAL

  • AUB: 51.1% third-down conversion rate to VAN's 35.9%

    15.2 PP

    Auburn is converting better than half its third downs through three games, well above its 39.2% last season, so expect some cooling. Vanderbilt flipped the other way: 35.9% now after 51.1% last season, which looks more like a three-game dip than a new identity. The gap in this matchup is probably narrower than it looks, so be careful building a view on Auburn sustaining drives at will.

  • AUB: 25.7 first downs per game to VAN's 19

    6.7 FD

    Auburn is picking up 25.7 first downs a game through three games after 20.8 last season, while Vanderbilt fell to 19 from 24. Both swings run against last season's numbers, so three games of schedule are doing a lot of work. Expect this gap to narrow, and don't assume Auburn will move the chains at home as easily as its early numbers suggest.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 26, 2026 at 8:07 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

1
  • GARY'S PICK
    JARED CURTISPASSING YARDS OVER 229.5
    NCAAFVanderbilt· -122

    Jared Curtis
    Passing Yards over 229.5

    -122 · LOST · ACTUAL 199

    Vanderbilt

    I’m backing Curtis to clear 229.5 passing yards. His 547 yards across three games do not tell the whole story because his first start produced 277, including 205 after halftime against NC State. That performance showed he can generate volume and explosive completions when Vanderbilt has to open the offense.

    Auburn allowed Florida 12 explosive plays, with assignment errors and missed tackles contributing to the damage. Junior Sherrill and Jayvontay Conner give Curtis multiple ways to attack those breakdowns, while Vanderbilt’s status as a road underdog creates a reasonable path to sustained passing volume.

    The concerns are real: this is Curtis’ first road start, and Vanderbilt’s poor passing-down efficiency could allow Auburn’s pressure to end possessions early. Still, the combination of likely game script, Curtis’ demonstrated ceiling as a starter and Auburn’s recent coverage mistakes makes 230 yards attainable often enough for me to lay -122.

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