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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM

Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores

O/U 54.5 · SPREAD Ole Miss Rebels -9.5 · FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN

GARY'S PICK
Ole Miss -9.5
NCAAF@ Vanderbilt· -112

Ole Miss
-9.5

-112 · CASHED · MISS 52 · VAN 17

Vanderbilt

The pick & result

Published pick
Ole Miss Rebels -9.5 -112
Published odds
-112
Result
Won
Final score
52-17

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 55 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 4 10:31 AM
Close
Oct 10 2:51 PM
Move
SPREADOle Miss Rebels -10.5 (-105)Ole Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)−1
TOTAL57.5 (-110)54.5 (-115)−3
MONEYLINEOle Miss Rebels -425Ole Miss Rebels -325+100
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 4 10:31 AMOle Miss Rebels -10.5 (-105)57.5 (-110)Ole Miss Rebels -425 · Vanderbilt Commodores +333
Oct 4 11:31 AMOle Miss Rebels -10 (-118)57.5 (-110)Ole Miss Rebels -425 · Vanderbilt Commodores +333
Oct 4 12:31 PMOle Miss Rebels -10.5 (-110)57.5 (-110)Ole Miss Rebels -450 · Vanderbilt Commodores +340
Oct 4 2:33 PMOle Miss Rebels -11 (-110)57.5 (-110)Ole Miss Rebels -450 · Vanderbilt Commodores +340
Oct 4 3:56 PMOle Miss Rebels -10 (-110)57.5 (-110)Ole Miss Rebels -425 · Vanderbilt Commodores +333
Oct 4 4:56 PMOle Miss Rebels -10 (-108)58.5 (-112)Ole Miss Rebels -400 · Vanderbilt Commodores +320
Oct 4 5:49 PMOle Miss Rebels -10 (-110)58.5 (-112)Ole Miss Rebels -425 · Vanderbilt Commodores +333
Oct 4 6:50 PMOle Miss Rebels -10 (-108)58.5 (-112)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +300
Oct 4 8:51 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-115)58.5 (-112)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +300
Oct 4 10:52 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-112)58.5 (-112)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +300
Oct 4 11:52 PMOle Miss Rebels -9 (-110)58.5 (-112)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 5 6:00 AMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)58.5 (-112)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +300
Oct 5 8:01 AMOle Miss Rebels -9 (-112)58.5 (-112)Ole Miss Rebels -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 5 3:57 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-108)58.5 (-110)Ole Miss Rebels -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Oct 5 5:57 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)58.5 (-108)Ole Miss Rebels -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Oct 5 11:42 PMOle Miss Rebels -9 (-110)58.5 (-108)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 6 12:42 AMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-108)58.5 (-108)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 6 6:00 AMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)58.5 (-108)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 6 10:12 AMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-112)58.5 (-108)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 6 10:42 AMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-115)58.5 (-108)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 6 11:12 AMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)58.5 (-108)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 6 11:42 AMOle Miss Rebels -9 (-115)58.5 (-108)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 6 12:12 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-112)59.5 (-110)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 6 12:43 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)59.5 (-110)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 6 4:02 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-108)59.5 (-110)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 6 6:32 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)59.5 (-108)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 6 7:02 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-108)58.5 (-120)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +300
Oct 6 7:32 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-112)58.5 (-115)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 6 9:03 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-112)58.5 (-115)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +300
Oct 7 6:00 AMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)58.5 (-115)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 7 8:30 AMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)58.5 (-115)Ole Miss Rebels -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 7 9:31 AMOle Miss Rebels -10 (-110)58.5 (-108)Ole Miss Rebels -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 7 10:31 AMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)57.5 (-118)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +300
Oct 7 11:02 AMOle Miss Rebels -10 (-110)57.5 (-115)Ole Miss Rebels -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 7 12:02 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-108)58.5 (-108)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 7 1:03 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-112)57.5 (-108)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 7 1:33 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-108)56.5 (-110)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 7 2:03 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-108)57.5 (-110)Ole Miss Rebels -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 7 4:04 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-108)56.5 (-110)Ole Miss Rebels -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 7 5:05 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-108)56.5 (-110)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 7 6:36 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-108)56.5 (-108)Ole Miss Rebels -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 7 7:06 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-108)56.5 (-105)Ole Miss Rebels -375 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 7 8:36 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)56.5 (-105)Ole Miss Rebels -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 7 9:06 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Ole Miss Rebels -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +290
Oct 8 12:38 AMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)56.5 (-110)Ole Miss Rebels -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Oct 8 7:30 AMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)57.5 (-108)Ole Miss Rebels -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Oct 8 8:00 AMOle Miss Rebels -10 (-110)57.5 (-110)Ole Miss Rebels -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Oct 8 8:30 AMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)56.5 (-112)Ole Miss Rebels -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Oct 8 9:31 AMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)55.5 (-105)Ole Miss Rebels -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Oct 8 10:31 AMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-108)55.5 (-108)Ole Miss Rebels -350 · Vanderbilt Commodores +280
Oct 8 11:31 AMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)55.5 (-110)Ole Miss Rebels -425 · Vanderbilt Commodores +320
Oct 8 4:03 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)55.5 (-105)Ole Miss Rebels -425 · Vanderbilt Commodores +320
Oct 8 5:17 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-105)54.5 (-110)Ole Miss Rebels -325 · Vanderbilt Commodores +260
Oct 9 2:32 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-110)Ole Miss Rebels -325 · Vanderbilt Commodores +260
Oct 10 1:19 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-110)Ole Miss Rebels -325 · Vanderbilt Commodores +260
CLOSEOct 10 2:51 PMOle Miss Rebels -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-115)Ole Miss Rebels -325 · Vanderbilt Commodores +260

The read

Nashville hosts a conference matchup with drizzle and gusty wind in the kickoff forecast. Ole Miss arrives after a bye spent addressing its defensive breakdown at Florida, while Vanderbilt returns home after consecutive conference road losses.

I’m taking Ole Miss because its offense has the more convincing path to creating separation. Trinidad Chambliss has completed 70.8% of his passes at 8.49 yards per attempt. Deuce Alexander, Caleb Odom and Traylon Ray give him several productive receiving options. Vanderbilt accumulated 11 of its 14 sacks against Austin Peay and Delaware, then recorded one sack in each power-conference game. I expect Chambliss to find enough opportunities against that defense to sustain drives.

The difference extends to finishing possessions. Ole Miss averages 4.750 points per scoring opportunity against Vanderbilt’s 3.036. Its offensive success rate is 51.8%, compared with Vanderbilt’s 40.4%. Those figures support my judgment that the Rebels can build a lead through repeated productive possessions, without depending on turnovers or a single explosive play.

Vanderbilt’s strongest answer is its motion and formation changes testing Ole Miss’s defensive assignments, with Junior Sherrill providing a dependable receiving threat. Florida exposed a real weakness there. The obstacle is Vanderbilt’s own execution: it averaged 2.7 yards per carry at Auburn and 3.3 at Georgia. I expect that inconsistency to leave possessions unfinished often enough for Ole Miss to pull away.

The wind complicates the favorite’s passing advantage, and the bye does not prove its tackling is repaired. I’m backing enough defensive improvement to complement the offense. Vanderbilt’s case is stronger for staying competitive than winning outright, but Ole Miss’s passing production and ability to finish drives make laying 9.5 at -112 my preferred ticket.

Injuries noted

Ole Miss Rebels: Kewan Lacy (questionable) — RB #5 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Izaiah Hartrup (out) — WR #12 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Ant Davis Jr. (out) — LB #26 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Joshua Dye (out) — RB #28 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Craig Tutt (out) — S #35 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Gerald Lacy Jr. (out) — S #39 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Jalan Chapman (out) — OL #70 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Emanuel Faulkner (out) — OL #71 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Wyatt Smalley (out) — TE #87 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

Vanderbilt Commodores: Jaylin Lackey (out) — CB #2 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Jamison Curtis (out) — LB #20 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Aaron Bryant (out) — DL #55 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Mitchell Smith (out) — OL #72 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Kahden Smith (out) — WR #81 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Jared Curtis is VAN's projected starter

    7.61 Y/A

    Jared Curtis is VAN's projected starting quarterback. Oct. 6 reporting places Curtis atop this week's depth chart. Oct. 8 reporting says he completed a full practice week and remained probable against Ole Miss; a game-day start is not confirmed. 2026 line: 746 passing yards, 64.3% completions, 7.61 yards per attempt, 4-3 TD-INT over 4 games.

  • Trinidad Chambliss is MISS's projected starter

    8.49 Y/A

    Trinidad Chambliss is MISS's projected starting quarterback. Ole Miss' Oct. 9 game preview discusses Chambliss as the Rebel quarterback for the Vanderbilt matchup. It supports the projection but does not explicitly announce a game-day starter. 2026 line: 1222 passing yards, 70.8% completions, 8.49 yards per attempt, 8-3 TD-INT over 4 games.

TRENCHES

  • VAN: 128.2 rushing yards allowed per game to MISS's 194.8

    66.6 YPG

    Mississippi has allowed 194.8 rushing yards a game over 4 games, and Vanderbilt 128.2 over 5. That is a big hole for Ole Miss against the run, though the sheet does not show who those offences were or whether Ole Miss gave up yards while protecting leads. If Vanderbilt can run it, they can shorten the game and keep the Ole Miss offence on the sideline, which matters for totals and for how many possessions an underdog gets.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • MISS: 35.5 points per game to VAN's 25.4

    10.1 PPG

    Ole Miss scores 35.5 a game through 4 games, close to its 36.9 last season, so the offense looks like itself. Vanderbilt is at 25.4 over 5, down from 38.5 last season, a drop worth respecting but in a short window. Ole Miss's scoring is the steadier number here. Vanderbilt bouncing back at home is possible, so be careful assuming the current gap holds in full.

MISMATCH

  • MISS: 322.5 pass yards a game to VAN's 226.4

    322.5 VS 226.4

    Ole Miss is throwing for 322.5 yards a game over four games, close to last season's 313.3, while Vanderbilt has dropped to 226.4 from 287.3. Ole Miss is the same passing team it was, so this gap comes from Vanderbilt slipping. On the road, Ole Miss can lean on that air attack. Vanderbilt has to keep pace through the air or control the clock to stay close.

REPLACEMENT

  • Joshua Dye (RB) is out for MISS

    OUT

    RB #28 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Jalan Chapman (OL) is out for MISS

    OUT

    OL #70 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Izaiah Hartrup (WR) is out for MISS

    OUT

    WR #12 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Ant Davis Jr. (LB) is out for MISS

    OUT

    LB #26 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Craig Tutt (S) is out for MISS

    OUT

    S #35 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Gerald Lacy Jr. (S) is out for MISS

    OUT

    S #39 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Emanuel Faulkner (OL) is out for MISS

    OUT

    OL #71 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Wyatt Smalley (TE) is out for MISS

    OUT

    TE #87 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Jaylin Lackey (CB) is out for VAN

    OUT

    CB #2 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Jamison Curtis (LB) is out for VAN

    OUT

    LB #20 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Aaron Bryant (DL) is out for VAN

    OUT

    DL #55 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Mitchell Smith (OL) is out for VAN

    OUT

    OL #72 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

  • Kahden Smith (WR) is out for VAN

    OUT

    WR #81 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

SITUATIONAL

  • MISS: 322.5 team passing yards per game to VAN's 226.4

    96.1 YPG

    MISS is at 322.5 team passing yards per game over 4 games; VAN is at 226.4 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 9. Last season MISS was at 313.3 over 15 games and VAN at 287.3 over 13 games.

  • MISS has 7 more days of rest

    14d vs 7d

    MISS had a bye and fourteen days to get ready, and VAN is on a regular seven-day week at home. The rest edge belongs to the road team here, which partly offsets VAN's home field. In spots like this, weigh the travel against the extra week of prep and health before deciding which side the schedule really helps.

  • MISS: 24.8 first downs per game to VAN's 18.4

    6.4 FD

    MISS is at 24.8 first downs per game over 4 games; VAN is at 18.4 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 9. Last season MISS was at 25.5 over 15 games and VAN at 24 over 13 games.

TEAM RECORD

  • SEC game: MISS 1-1, VAN 0-2 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the SEC. MISS is 1-1 against it, VAN is 0-2. 2026 standings through 2026-10-10.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 10, 2026 at 8:14 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, fanatics, betmgm, betrivers, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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