Alabama comes home to Bryant-Denny off back-to-back losses to Georgia and Tennessee. Texas A&M arrives fresh off a 41-0 tune-up over The Citadel, with its quarterback and play-caller under fire. It's clear and 77 degrees, so the weather won't hide anything. I'm laying the 13.5 with the Tide. Start with A&M's offense against real defenses. At LSU, Marcel Reed's group threw 10-of-27 for 106 and scored 6. At Missouri it was 19-of-39 passing and 23 runs for 29 yards, another 6 points. Even the 48 against Arizona State came off two pick-sixes and short fields. The offense ran 35 times for 92 against the 126th-ranked scoring defense. This week's criticism of Reed and Holmon Wiggins is backed by the box scores. A&M's defense gives up big plays and doesn't pressure the quarterback. Kentucky went 14-of-18 for 252, LSU threw for 312, and the Aggies have never had more than two sacks in a game. That matters because protection is Alabama's weak spot: 5 sacks allowed at Tennessee, 4 against Georgia. A&M doesn't have the pass rush to exploit it. Alabama's two losses came against defenses ranked 11th and 23rd in points allowed. Against everyone else, Keelon Russell went 23-of-30 for 320, 21-of-27 for 365 and 16-of-22 for 285. A&M's defense looks like the second group. Ryan Coleman-Williams is out but already missed Tennessee, and Lotzeir Brooks and Rico Scott are still there. The new injuries cost Alabama a little. Zabien Brown in the secondary and EJ Crowell at running back are both doubtful. Brown's absence is real, but A&M's passing game is poorly built to punish it. Daniel Hill and Trae'shawn Brown can carry the backfield. What I'm ignoring:
- the Citadel score
- the Kentucky common opponent, which stacks two noisy games
- the bounce-back talk
- Alabama's return touchdowns, which I've discounted The risk is A&M running the ball while Alabama keeps giving it away. Alabama allowed 216 rushing yards to South Carolina and 206 to Georgia, and had 4 giveaways at Tennessee. That's why I'm keeping the stake moderate. But in SEC play, the gap in how these teams move the ball and stop it is wider than two touchdowns.
Alabama comes home to Bryant-Denny off back-to-back losses to Georgia and Tennessee. Texas A&M arrives fresh off a 41-0 tune-up over The Citadel, with its quarterback and play-caller under fire. It's clear and 77 degrees, so the weather won't hide anything. I'm laying the 13.5 with the Tide.
Start with A&M's offense against real defenses. At LSU, Marcel Reed's group threw 10-of-27 for 106 and scored 6. At Missouri it was 19-of-39 passing and 23 runs for 29 yards, another 6 points. Even the 48 against Arizona State came off two pick-sixes and short fields. The offense ran 35 times for 92 against the 126th-ranked scoring defense. This week's criticism of Reed and Holmon Wiggins is backed by the box scores.
A&M's defense gives up big plays and doesn't pressure the quarterback. Kentucky went 14-of-18 for 252, LSU threw for 312, and the Aggies have never had more than two sacks in a game. That matters because protection is Alabama's weak spot: 5 sacks allowed at Tennessee, 4 against Georgia. A&M doesn't have the pass rush to exploit it.
Alabama's two losses came against defenses ranked 11th and 23rd in points allowed. Against everyone else, Keelon Russell went 23-of-30 for 320, 21-of-27 for 365 and 16-of-22 for 285. A&M's defense looks like the second group. Ryan Coleman-Williams is out but already missed Tennessee, and Lotzeir Brooks and Rico Scott are still there.
The new injuries cost Alabama a little. Zabien Brown in the secondary and EJ Crowell at running back are both doubtful. Brown's absence is real, but A&M's passing game is poorly built to punish it. Daniel Hill and Trae'shawn Brown can carry the backfield.
What I'm ignoring:
- the Citadel score
- the Kentucky common opponent, which stacks two noisy games
- the bounce-back talk
- Alabama's return touchdowns, which I've discounted
The risk is A&M running the ball while Alabama keeps giving it away. Alabama allowed 216 rushing yards to South Carolina and 206 to Georgia, and had 4 giveaways at Tennessee. That's why I'm keeping the stake moderate. But in SEC play, the gap in how these teams move the ball and stop it is wider than two touchdowns.
Alabama -13.5