Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Injuries noted

Alabama Crimson Tide: Justin Hill (out) — Linebacker out on the October 2 Friday report; October 1 reporting says he was hurt against Florida State and expected to miss several weeks.; Desmond Umeozulu (out) — Linebacker out on the October 2 Friday report; October 1 reporting says he was hurt against Florida State.; Jorden Edmonds (out) — Defensive back out on the October 2 Friday report; condition unspecified.; Cayden Jones (out for season) — Linebacker reported out for the season on October 1 and retained as out on the October 2 Friday report; condition unspecified.; Nick Sherman (out) — Defensive back out on the October 2 Friday report; condition unspecified.; Jayvin James (out) — Starting right tackle downgraded from questionable to out on October 2. October 1 reporting describes a lower-extremity injury sustained against South Carolina.; Jeremiah Beaman (out for season) — Defensive lineman reported out for the season on October 1 and retained as out on the October 2 Friday report; condition unspecified.; Zavier Mincey (probable) — Defensive back listed probable on the October 2 Friday report; condition unspecified.

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Zakari Tillman (out) — Linebacker listed out on the October 2 Friday SEC availability report for Alabama; condition unspecified.; Ayden Williams (out) — Wide receiver listed out on the October 2 Friday report; condition unspecified.; Trevion Williams (out) — Defensive lineman listed out on the October 2 Friday report; condition unspecified.

QUARTERBACK

• Kamario Taylor is MSST's confirmed starter

  9.93 Y/A

  Kamario Taylor is MSST's confirmed starting quarterback. The October 2 game preview explicitly says Mississippi State will start Taylor against Alabama; the school's October 2 preview identifies him as QB1. 2026 line: 1192 passing yards, 69.2% completions, 9.93 yards per attempt, 14-2 TD-INT over 4 games.

• Keelon Russell is ALA's confirmed starter

  10.29 Y/A

  Keelon Russell is ALA's confirmed starting quarterback. October 2 reporting identifies Russell as Alabama's starter and explicitly says he is set to lead Alabama against Mississippi State on Saturday. 2026 line: 1122 passing yards, 70.6% completions, 10.29 yards per attempt, 8-2 TD-INT over 4 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

• ALA @ MSST carries a 60.5 market total

  60.5

  Alabama at Mississippi State carries 60.5, 8.5 points above the slate median of 52, so the market expects points from both sides. The sheet gives no team numbers to say who carries the load. For this to come in under, the game needs to slow down: a lopsided score that turns into a running-clock second half would do it, since the leading side stops pushing and the trailing side burns time.

TURNOVERS

• ALA: 2.25 takeaways per game to MSST's 0.5

  1.75 TO

  Alabama forces 2.25 takeaways a game over four games, while Mississippi State forces 0.5. Alabama keeps getting the ball back, and Mississippi State rarely does. Turnover rates swing a lot from game to game, so the 2.25 is more likely to drift down than hold. For this road game, the takeaway edge points Alabama's way, but turnovers are a shaky thing to build a whole view on.

MISMATCH

• ALA: 33:08 of possession a game to MSST's 28:09

  33:08 VS 28:09

  Alabama holds the ball 33:08 a game through four, Mississippi State 28:09. Both are close to last season, 31:35 for Alabama and 28:11 for MSST, so this edge should hold. Alabama controlling the clock on the road means fewer possessions for MSST to keep up. Fewer possessions tends to favor the better team and lower totals.

REPLACEMENT

• Cayden Jones (LB) is out for the season for ALA

  OUT FOR SEASON

  Linebacker reported out for the season on October 1 and retained as out on the October 2 Friday report; condition unspecified. Alabama-Mississippi State Injury Report and Keys to the Game (2026-10-01) Friday Availability Report for No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State (2026-10-02)

• Jeremiah Beaman (DL) is out for the season for ALA

  OUT FOR SEASON

  Defensive lineman reported out for the season on October 1 and retained as out on the October 2 Friday report; condition unspecified. Alabama-Mississippi State Injury Report and Keys to the Game (2026-10-01) Friday Availability Report for No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State (2026-10-02)

• Trevion Williams (DL) is out for MSST

  OUT

  Defensive lineman listed out on the October 2 Friday report; condition unspecified. Friday Availability Report for No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State (2026-10-02)

• Ayden Williams (WR) is out for MSST

  OUT

  Wide receiver listed out on the October 2 Friday report; condition unspecified. Friday Availability Report for No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State (2026-10-02)

• Zakari Tillman (LB) is out for MSST

  OUT

  Linebacker listed out on the October 2 Friday SEC availability report for Alabama; condition unspecified. Friday Availability Report for No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State (2026-10-02)

• Jayvin James (OL) is out for ALA

  OUT

  Starting right tackle downgraded from questionable to out on October 2. October 1 reporting describes a lower-extremity injury sustained against South Carolina. Friday Availability Report for No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State (2026-10-02) Alabama-Mississippi State Injury Report and Keys to the Game (2026-10-01)

• Nick Sherman (DB) is out for ALA

  OUT

  Defensive back out on the October 2 Friday report; condition unspecified. Friday Availability Report for No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State (2026-10-02)

• Jorden Edmonds (DB) is out for ALA

  OUT

  Defensive back out on the October 2 Friday report; condition unspecified. Friday Availability Report for No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State (2026-10-02)

• Desmond Umeozulu (LB) is out for ALA

  OUT

  Linebacker out on the October 2 Friday report; October 1 reporting says he was hurt against Florida State. Friday Availability Report for No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State (2026-10-02) Alabama-Mississippi State Injury Report and Keys to the Game (2026-10-01)

• Justin Hill (LB) is out for ALA

  OUT

  Linebacker out on the October 2 Friday report; October 1 reporting says he was hurt against Florida State and expected to miss several weeks. Friday Availability Report for No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State (2026-10-02) Alabama-Mississippi State Injury Report and Keys to the Game (2026-10-01)

SITUATIONAL

• No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State

  #7 VS #16

  Both teams are 4-0, but Alabama carries 1305 points against Mississippi State's 715, so voters trust one unbeaten record far more than the other. Mississippi State jumped eight spots, the biggest move in this game, which tells you the respect is arriving fast and is still catching up. Alabama moved up one spot and is ranked partly on reputation. When an unbeaten home team is surging in the poll, the gap in the line can be wider than the gap on the field.

• ALA: 42.8 penalty yards per game to MSST's 80

  37.3 YDS

  Mississippi State is giving away 80 penalty yards a game through four games, up from 61.5 last season, while Alabama is at 42.8, near its 39.7 a year ago. Alabama's discipline looks like its normal standard, and Mississippi State's jump is the number more likely to fall back. Even at home, extra flags give a stronger opponent free yards, which matters for spreads and late-game margins.

TEAM RECORD

• SEC game: ALA 2-0, MSST 2-0 in conference

  CONFERENCE

  These two share the SEC. ALA is 2-0 against it, MSST is 2-0. 2026 standings through 2026-10-03.