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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM

Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers

O/U 50.5 · SPREAD Alabama Crimson Tide -7.5 · Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN

GARY'S PICK
Alabama -7.5
NCAAF@ Tennessee· -110

Alabama
-7.5

-110 · LOST · ALA 10 · TENN 26

Tennessee

The pick & result

Published pick
Alabama Crimson Tide -7.5 -110
Published odds
-110
Result
Lost
Final score
10-26

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 52 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 11 3:03 PM
Close
Oct 17 3:23 PM
Move
SPREADAlabama Crimson Tide -7 (-105)Alabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-110)+½
TOTAL53.5 (-108)50.5 (-115)−3
MONEYLINEAlabama Crimson Tide -275Alabama Crimson Tide -325−50

TOTAL first seen Oct 11 4:03 PM

Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 11 3:03 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -7 (-105)—Alabama Crimson Tide -275 · Tennessee Volunteers +210
Oct 11 4:03 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -6.5 (-112)53.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -250 · Tennessee Volunteers +210
Oct 11 5:03 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -6.5 (-110)52.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -250 · Tennessee Volunteers +210
Oct 11 6:03 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -7 (-102)53.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -250 · Tennessee Volunteers +210
Oct 11 7:03 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -7 (-105)53.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -275 · Tennessee Volunteers +220
Oct 11 8:03 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -7 (-112)53.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -285 · Tennessee Volunteers +230
Oct 11 9:03 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-108)53.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -300 · Tennessee Volunteers +250
Oct 12 6:00 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-108)53.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -300 · Tennessee Volunteers +250
Oct 12 10:01 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-110)53.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -300 · Tennessee Volunteers +250
Oct 12 11:32 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -8.5 (-108)53.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +260
Oct 12 1:33 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -8.5 (-108)53.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +270
Oct 12 4:34 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -9 (-108)53.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +270
Oct 12 5:34 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -9 (-110)52.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -350 · Tennessee Volunteers +275
Oct 12 6:36 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -9 (-110)51.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -350 · Tennessee Volunteers +275
Oct 13 8:30 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -9.5 (-108)51.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -350 · Tennessee Volunteers +270
Oct 13 9:31 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -8.5 (-108)51.5 (-115)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +260
Oct 13 3:32 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -8.5 (-112)51.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -350 · Tennessee Volunteers +275
Oct 13 4:32 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -9 (-115)51.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -350 · Tennessee Volunteers +275
Oct 13 5:32 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -9 (-118)51.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -350 · Tennessee Volunteers +275
Oct 14 8:20 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -9 (-115)51.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -350 · Tennessee Volunteers +280
Oct 14 1:04 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -8.5 (-110)51.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +270
Oct 14 1:34 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -9 (-115)51.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -350 · Tennessee Volunteers +280
Oct 14 2:04 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -9.5 (-112)51.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -350 · Tennessee Volunteers +275
Oct 14 2:34 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -9 (-115)51.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -350 · Tennessee Volunteers +275
Oct 14 4:05 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -8.5 (-108)51.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -350 · Tennessee Volunteers +270
Oct 14 6:08 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -8.5 (-108)51.5 (-115)Alabama Crimson Tide -350 · Tennessee Volunteers +275
Oct 14 7:08 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -8 (-110)51.5 (-115)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +260
Oct 14 8:38 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -8 (-110)51.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +260
Oct 14 9:08 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -8 (-110)51.5 (-115)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +260
Oct 15 7:00 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-118)51.5 (-115)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +260
Oct 15 8:32 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-110)51.5 (-115)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +270
Oct 15 9:31 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-110)51.5 (-115)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +260
Oct 15 10:01 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-110)51.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +270
Oct 15 11:01 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-108)51.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +270
Oct 15 12:01 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-110)51.5 (-102)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +270
Oct 15 12:31 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-110)50.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +270
Oct 15 5:00 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-110)50.5 (-115)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +270
Oct 15 7:30 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-110)50.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +270
Oct 15 8:51 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-110)50.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +270
Oct 16 9:31 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-108)50.5 (-115)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +260
Oct 17 5:00 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-108)50.5 (-115)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +270
Oct 17 8:00 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-108)50.5 (-115)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +260
Oct 17 9:31 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-110)50.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +260
Oct 17 10:11 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-108)50.5 (-115)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +260
Oct 17 1:53 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-110)50.5 (-115)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +260
Oct 17 2:03 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-108)50.5 (-115)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +260
Oct 17 2:23 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-110)50.5 (-115)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +260
Oct 17 2:33 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-110)50.5 (-118)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +260
Oct 17 2:43 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-108)50.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +260
Oct 17 2:53 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-108)50.5 (-118)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +260
Oct 17 3:03 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-108)50.5 (-115)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +260
Oct 17 3:13 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-108)50.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +260
CLOSEOct 17 3:23 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-110)50.5 (-115)Alabama Crimson Tide -325 · Tennessee Volunteers +260

The read

No. 6 Alabama walks into a 3:30 kickoff at Neyland a week after a 20-17 heartbreaker against No. 1 Georgia, decided by a disputed no-call, and it does it without Ryan Coleman-Williams. No. 14 Tennessee is 5-1, but it has been grinding out wins, not running teams off the field. I'll lay the 7.5 with Alabama.

The biggest mismatch is the football itself. Tennessee coughed it up 3 times at Arkansas and twice against Auburn, and George MacIntyre threw 2 interceptions last week. Alabama's defense has 14 takeaways, and its offense cashes 5.3 points per trip inside the 40. Hand this offense short fields and those trips become touchdowns.

Tennessee's offense isn't built to dig out of a hole. Against SEC defenses, its passing game has succeeded on 38% of plays at best. It went 4-of-16, 3-of-14 and 4-of-13 on third down in those games, and Texas held it to 1.6 yards per carry. This Alabama defense just held a Georgia offense that scores 46.2 a game to 20. Expect plenty of Vols punts and plenty of good field position for Keelon Russell.

Don't overreact to the injury report. Alabama's list is long, but most of those names haven't produced this season. The real losses are Coleman-Williams and Terrance Green, and both are already in the number. Russell still has Lotzeir Brooks, Rico Scott and Marshall Pritchett, plus a run game that went for 5.6 a carry against Georgia. Alabama is the better team on both sides, with the tougher schedule behind it. Its offense succeeds on 50.1% of plays to Tennessee's 45.0%, and its defense allows 35.3% to Tennessee's 37.6%.

The risk is real. Tennessee's defense almost never gives up big plays and stiffens near the goal line, allowing just 2.4 points per trip. A run-heavy home team shortens the game. If the Vols turn Alabama drives into field goals and hang onto the ball, the hook bites. If Faizon Brandon gets the start instead, the turnover edge shrinks a little.

Still, the better team on both sides, facing an offense that keeps giving the ball away, should win by more than a touchdown. Alabama -7.5.

Injuries noted

Alabama Crimson Tide: Ryan Coleman-Williams (out) — WR #1 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Justin Hill (probable) — LB #8 listed Probable on the SEC Update 2 report; Desmond Umeozulu (out) — LB #9 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Cayden Jones (out) — LB #23 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Nick Sherman (out) — DB #29 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Josh Ford (questionable) — TE #40 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Racin Delgatty (out) — OL #55 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Jeremiah Beaman (out) — DL #92 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Terrance Green (out) — DL #99 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

Tennessee Volunteers: Ethan Davis (out) — TE #0 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Joakim Dodson (out) — WR #9 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Jaedon Harmon (out) — LB #12 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Edrees Farooq (out) — DB #15 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Dylan Lewis (out) — DB #24 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Wendell Moe Jr. (out) — OL #75 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • George MacIntyre is TENN's projected starter

    8.06 Y/A

    George MacIntyre is TENN's projected starting quarterback. The October 15 report attributes the planned start against Alabama to ESPN's Pete Thamel, citing sources. This establishes a reported plan, not an official game-day confirmation. 2026 line: 395 passing yards, 65.3% completions, 8.06 yards per attempt, 2-2 TD-INT over 4 games.

  • Keelon Russell is ALA's confirmed starter

    9.89 Y/A

    Keelon Russell is ALA's confirmed starting quarterback. The October 13 Tennessee game-week report explicitly identifies Russell as Alabama's starting quarterback since week one. The October 16 matchup preview also identifies him as the starter; this is not inferred from passing totals. 2026 line: 1592 passing yards, 67.7% completions, 9.89 yards per attempt, 12-2 TD-INT over 6 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • ALA: 44.2 points per game to TENN's 34.7

    9.5 PPG

    Alabama is scoring far more than last season's 29.5, and Tennessee has slipped from 39.8 to 34.7. Six games is enough to take the Alabama jump seriously, but some of it may come from softer early opponents, so the number could come down in conference play. At Tennessee, both offenses can put up points, so think about how the total is priced before deciding which side has the edge.

TURNOVERS

  • ALA: 2.33 takeaways per game to TENN's 1.33

    1 TO

    Alabama forces 2.33 turnovers a game and Tennessee forces 1.33, both over six games. Takeaway rates bounce around and usually move toward average, so some of that gap probably won't last. Alabama is still more likely to win the turnover battle, which can mean short fields and extra points. Use it as a small edge, and don't build a whole bet around it.

MISMATCH

  • ALA: 269.2 pass yards a game to TENN's 186.5

    269.2 VS 186.5

    The widest gap between these two is pass yards a game: ALA threw for 269.2 passing yards a game over 6 games; TENN threw for 186.5 passing yards a game over 6 games this season. Last season ALA was at 263.5 over 15 games and TENN at 292.8 over 13 games.

COVERAGE

  • TENN: 161.3 passing yards allowed per game to ALA's 236.5

    75.2 YPG

    Tennessee allows 161.3 passing yards a game and Alabama allows 236.5, both over six games. Six games is a solid start, but the sheet doesn't list opponents, so part of Tennessee's number could come from schedule. In this game, Alabama's passing offense meets the tougher secondary, while Tennessee gets to throw against the softer one. Lean toward Tennessee passing numbers over Alabama's.

REPLACEMENT

  • Ryan Coleman-Williams (WR) is out for ALA

    OUT

    WR #1 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

  • Desmond Umeozulu (LB) is out for ALA

    OUT

    LB #9 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

  • Cayden Jones (LB) is out for ALA

    OUT

    LB #23 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

  • Nick Sherman (DB) is out for ALA

    OUT

    DB #29 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

  • Racin Delgatty (OL) is out for ALA

    OUT

    OL #55 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

  • Jeremiah Beaman (DL) is out for ALA

    OUT

    DL #92 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

  • Terrance Green (DL) is out for ALA

    OUT

    DL #99 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

  • Ethan Davis (TE) is out for TENN

    OUT

    TE #0 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

  • Joakim Dodson (WR) is out for TENN

    OUT

    WR #9 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

  • Jaedon Harmon (LB) is out for TENN

    OUT

    LB #12 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

  • Edrees Farooq (DB) is out for TENN

    OUT

    DB #15 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

  • Dylan Lewis (DB) is out for TENN

    OUT

    DB #24 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

  • Wendell Moe Jr. (OL) is out for TENN

    OUT

    OL #75 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

SITUATIONAL

  • ALA: 269.2 team passing yards per game to TENN's 186.5

    82.7 YPG

    Alabama is throwing for 269.2 yards a game over six games, almost the same as its 263.5 last season. Tennessee has dropped hard, from 292.8 to 186.5, so the gap is Tennessee's passing game falling off. Six games is a fair sample for a drop that big. At home, Tennessee needs its passing game back to keep up with a steady Alabama attack.

  • No. 6 Alabama at No. 14 Tennessee

    #6 VS #14

    Alabama has almost double Tennessee's poll support, 1372 points to 706, even though both teams are 5-1. Alabama held at No. 6 and Tennessee moved up one spot to No. 14, so some of that gap comes from reputation more than record. Tennessee is at home with the same record, which makes the eight-spot ranking gap look bigger than the results so far justify.

TEAM RECORD

  • SEC game: ALA 3-1, TENN 2-1 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the SEC. ALA is 3-1 against it, TENN is 2-1. 2026 standings through 2026-10-17.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 17, 2026 at 8:07 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, betrivers, fanatics, fanduel, betmgm, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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