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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 24 · 3:30 PM

Texas A&M Aggies at Alabama Crimson Tide

O/U 50.5 · SPREAD Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5 · Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL

GARY'S PICK
Alabama -13.5
NCAAFvs Texas A&M· -110

Alabama
-13.5

-110 · LOST · TA&M 20 · ALA 31

Texas A&M

The pick & result

Published pick
Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5 -110
Published odds
-110
Result
Lost
Final score
20-31

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 32 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 18 12:32 PM
Close
Sat 3:26 PM
Move
SPREADAlabama Crimson Tide -15 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -13 (-110)−2
TOTAL51.5 (-108)49.5 (-108)−2
MONEYLINEAlabama Crimson Tide -700Alabama Crimson Tide -600+100
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 18 12:32 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -15 (-110)51.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -700 · Texas A&M Aggies +525
Oct 18 2:02 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -15 (-110)51.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -700 · Texas A&M Aggies +525
Oct 18 4:03 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -15 (-108)51.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -650 · Texas A&M Aggies +500
Oct 18 5:03 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -14.5 (-110)51.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -650 · Texas A&M Aggies +500
Oct 18 6:03 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -14 (-112)51.5 (-102)Alabama Crimson Tide -600 · Texas A&M Aggies +450
Oct 18 7:04 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -14.5 (-108)50.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -650 · Texas A&M Aggies +500
Oct 19 3:31 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -14.5 (-108)50.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -650 · Texas A&M Aggies +500
Oct 19 5:31 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -14 (-108)50.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -625 · Texas A&M Aggies +475
Oct 19 9:01 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -14 (-108)50.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -625 · Texas A&M Aggies +475
Oct 20 2:46 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -14 (-108)50.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -600 · Texas A&M Aggies +450
Oct 20 9:17 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -13.5 (-110)50.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -550 · Texas A&M Aggies +425
Oct 20 10:17 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -13.5 (-110)50.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -600 · Texas A&M Aggies +450
Oct 21 11:02 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -13.5 (-110)50.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -625 · Texas A&M Aggies +450
Oct 21 2:32 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -13.5 (-110)50.5 (-105)Alabama Crimson Tide -625 · Texas A&M Aggies +450
Oct 21 5:32 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -13.5 (-110)50.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -600 · Texas A&M Aggies +450
Oct 22 6:00 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -13.5 (-110)50.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -625 · Texas A&M Aggies +450
Thu 9:31 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -13.5 (-110)50.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -600 · Texas A&M Aggies +450
Thu 12:58 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -13.5 (-110)50.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -600 · Texas A&M Aggies +450
Thu 4:29 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -13.5 (-110)49.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -600 · Texas A&M Aggies +450
Thu 5:23 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -13.5 (-110)50.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -600 · Texas A&M Aggies +450
Thu 6:23 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -13.5 (-110)50.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -600 · Texas A&M Aggies +450
Fri 4:45 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -13.5 (-110)50.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -550 · Texas A&M Aggies +425
Fri 6:00 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -13.5 (-108)50.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -600 · Texas A&M Aggies +450
Fri 12:02 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -13 (-110)50.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -600 · Texas A&M Aggies +450
Fri 4:28 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -13 (-110)50.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -600 · Texas A&M Aggies +450
Fri 8:23 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -13 (-110)50.5 (-105)Alabama Crimson Tide -600 · Texas A&M Aggies +450
Sat 7:30 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -13.5 (-108)50.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -600 · Texas A&M Aggies +450
Sat 8:30 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -13.5 (-108)50.5 (-105)Alabama Crimson Tide -600 · Texas A&M Aggies +450
Sat 10:11 AMAlabama Crimson Tide -13.5 (-108)49.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -600 · Texas A&M Aggies +450
Sat 12:24 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -13.5 (-108)49.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -550 · Texas A&M Aggies +425
Sat 2:06 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -13.5 (-108)49.5 (-112)Alabama Crimson Tide -550 · Texas A&M Aggies +425
Sat 2:16 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -13 (-110)49.5 (-110)Alabama Crimson Tide -600 · Texas A&M Aggies +450
CLOSESat 3:26 PMAlabama Crimson Tide -13 (-110)49.5 (-108)Alabama Crimson Tide -600 · Texas A&M Aggies +425

The read

Alabama comes home to Bryant-Denny off back-to-back losses to Georgia and Tennessee. Texas A&M arrives fresh off a 41-0 tune-up over The Citadel, with its quarterback and play-caller under fire. It's clear and 77 degrees, so the weather won't hide anything. I'm laying the 13.5 with the Tide.

Start with A&M's offense against real defenses. At LSU, Marcel Reed's group threw 10-of-27 for 106 and scored 6. At Missouri it was 19-of-39 passing and 23 runs for 29 yards, another 6 points. Even the 48 against Arizona State came off two pick-sixes and short fields. The offense ran 35 times for 92 against the 126th-ranked scoring defense. This week's criticism of Reed and Holmon Wiggins is backed by the box scores.

A&M's defense gives up big plays and doesn't pressure the quarterback. Kentucky went 14-of-18 for 252, LSU threw for 312, and the Aggies have never had more than two sacks in a game. That matters because protection is Alabama's weak spot: 5 sacks allowed at Tennessee, 4 against Georgia. A&M doesn't have the pass rush to exploit it.

Alabama's two losses came against defenses ranked 11th and 23rd in points allowed. Against everyone else, Keelon Russell went 23-of-30 for 320, 21-of-27 for 365 and 16-of-22 for 285. A&M's defense looks like the second group. Ryan Coleman-Williams is out but already missed Tennessee, and Lotzeir Brooks and Rico Scott are still there.

The new injuries cost Alabama a little. Zabien Brown in the secondary and EJ Crowell at running back are both doubtful. Brown's absence is real, but A&M's passing game is poorly built to punish it. Daniel Hill and Trae'shawn Brown can carry the backfield.

What I'm ignoring: - the Citadel score - the Kentucky common opponent, which stacks two noisy games - the bounce-back talk - Alabama's return touchdowns, which I've discounted

The risk is A&M running the ball while Alabama keeps giving it away. Alabama allowed 216 rushing yards to South Carolina and 206 to Georgia, and had 4 giveaways at Tennessee. That's why I'm keeping the stake moderate. But in SEC play, the gap in how these teams move the ball and stop it is wider than two touchdowns.

Injuries noted

Texas A&M Aggies: Mario Craver (probable) — WR #1 listed Probable on the SEC Update 2 report; DJ Hicks (probable) — DT #5 listed Probable on the SEC Update 2 report; Terry Bussey (out) — WR #6 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Kelshaun Johnson (out) — WR #11 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Anto Saka (questionable) — DE #14 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Daymion Sanford (probable) — LB #27 listed Probable on the SEC Update 2 report; Blake Ivy (out) — OL #52 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Trovon Baugh (probable) — OL #76 listed Probable on the SEC Update 2 report

Alabama Crimson Tide: Ryan Coleman-Williams (out) — WR #1 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Zabien Brown (doubtful) — DB #2 listed Doubtful on the SEC Update 2 report; Desmond Umeozulu (out) — LB #9 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; EJ Crowell (doubtful) — RB #13 listed Doubtful on the SEC Update 2 report; Cayden Jones (out) — LB #23 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Nick Sherman (out) — DB #29 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Racin Delgatty (doubtful) — OL #55 listed Doubtful on the SEC Update 2 report; Jeremiah Beaman (out) — DL #92 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Terrance Green (out) — DL #99 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Marcel Reed is TA&M's confirmed starter

    6.03 Y/A

    Marcel Reed is TA&M's confirmed starting quarterback. Texas A&M's official Alabama game-week notes identify Reed as QB1 and its starting quarterback. KBTX's October 21 Alabama preview also discusses his quarterback role. 2026 line: 1164 passing yards, 56.5% completions, 6.03 yards per attempt, 7-6 TD-INT over 7 games.

  • Keelon Russell is ALA's confirmed starter

    9.15 Y/A

    Keelon Russell is ALA's confirmed starting quarterback. In his October 19 Texas A&M game-week press conference, Kalen DeBoer reaffirmed Russell as Alabama's quarterback. 2026 line: 1739 passing yards, 67.4% completions, 9.15 yards per attempt, 12-4 TD-INT over 7 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • ALA: 39.3 points per game to TA&M's 29.4

    9.9 PPG

    TA&M is at 29.4 points per game over 7 games; ALA is at 39.3 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 23. Last season TA&M was at 33.8 over 13 games and ALA at 29.5 over 15 games.

TURNOVERS

  • ALA: 2.29 takeaways per game to TA&M's 1.29

    1 TO

    Alabama's defense is taking the ball away about twice a game through 7 games, while Texas A&M's is closer to once. The sheet doesn't say who either team played, so there's no way to tell how much of Alabama's number came from careless offenses. Takeaways swing a lot game to game, so a 7-game rate can move fast. For this game, it leans Alabama in a turnover battle at home, but that edge is worth less than a yardage gap.

MISMATCH

  • ALA: 251.7 pass yards a game to TA&M's 186.7

    251.7 VS 186.7

    Alabama throws for 251.7 yards a game through seven games, close to last season's 263.5. Texas A&M is at 186.7, down from 259.8, so the Aggies' passing game has dropped off a lot. Alabama looks like its usual self, while A&M's decline over seven games looks like a real shift in how the offense works. At home, Alabama can lean on the pass, and A&M likely needs to find offense elsewhere to keep pace.

COVERAGE

  • TA&M: 164.1 passing yards allowed per game to ALA's 230.9

    66.7 YPG

    TA&M is at 164.1 passing yards allowed per game over 7 games; ALA is at 230.9 over 7 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 23.

REPLACEMENT

  • Terry Bussey (WR) is out for TA&M

    OUT

    WR #6 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Kelshaun Johnson (WR) is out for TA&M

    OUT

    WR #11 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Blake Ivy (OL) is out for TA&M

    OUT

    OL #52 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Ryan Coleman-Williams (WR) is out for ALA

    OUT

    WR #1 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Desmond Umeozulu (LB) is out for ALA

    OUT

    LB #9 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Cayden Jones (LB) is out for ALA

    OUT

    LB #23 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Nick Sherman (DB) is out for ALA

    OUT

    DB #29 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Jeremiah Beaman (DL) is out for ALA

    OUT

    DL #92 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Terrance Green (DL) is out for ALA

    OUT

    DL #99 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Racin Delgatty (OL) is doubtful for ALA

    DOUBTFUL

    OL #55 listed Doubtful on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • EJ Crowell (RB) is doubtful for ALA

    DOUBTFUL

    RB #13 listed Doubtful on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Zabien Brown (DB) is doubtful for ALA

    DOUBTFUL

    DB #2 listed Doubtful on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

TEAM RECORD

  • SEC game: TA&M 1-3, ALA 3-2 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the SEC. TA&M is 1-3 against it, ALA is 3-2. 2026 standings through 2026-10-24.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 24, 2026 at 8:11 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, fanatics, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.

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