Halloween at Beaver Stadium, 4:15 kickoff, and a Penn State team on a four-game losing streak is laying 10.5 points to a Purdue team that's been more dangerous than its 3-4 record. Penn State has won 11 straight in this series, but both sides are coming off a bye and the past won't cover this number. To cover, Penn State has to win by 11, and nothing in its Big Ten play says it can. The Nittany Lions have scored 18, 23, 13 and 20 in four conference games, and seven of the 20 against Wisconsin came on a pick-six. They've run for 87 yards a game, converted 18 of 56 third downs and given the ball away seven times. Rocco Becht has thrown 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in league play. Then there's Chase Sowell, questionable all week with an undisclosed injury. Sowell has 384 of Becht's 913 Big Ten passing yards, 2 of the 3 touchdown passes and 7 of the team's 10 plays of 20-plus yards in the last four games. Koby Howard is doubtful again. Even a limited Sowell caps this offense. Purdue can score on this defense. Penn State has given up 213, 135, 422 and 122 rushing yards in Big Ten games and has one sack in each. Ryan Browne threw for 378 at UCLA and 329 against Wake Forest, and Purdue has scored at least 24 in 5 of 6 games against FBS teams. The 12-point loss to Washington was 26-31 until a 53-yard touchdown run with 10:30 left. The risk is real. Purdue's defense has allowed 34.5 points a game against FBS teams, defensive back Jaden Mangham is doubtful, and a desperate home team with bodies returning on defense could finally get Becht a clean day. But a team that hasn't scored more than 23 against anyone in the Big Ten is a tough ask to win by double digits, and the hook over 10 is real value. Purdue plus the points.
Halloween at Beaver Stadium, 4:15 kickoff, and a Penn State team on a four-game losing streak is laying 10.5 points to a Purdue team that's been more dangerous than its 3-4 record. Penn State has won 11 straight in this series, but both sides are coming off a bye and the past won't cover this number.
To cover, Penn State has to win by 11, and nothing in its Big Ten play says it can. The Nittany Lions have scored 18, 23, 13 and 20 in four conference games, and seven of the 20 against Wisconsin came on a pick-six. They've run for 87 yards a game, converted 18 of 56 third downs and given the ball away seven times. Rocco Becht has thrown 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in league play.
Then there's Chase Sowell, questionable all week with an undisclosed injury. Sowell has 384 of Becht's 913 Big Ten passing yards, 2 of the 3 touchdown passes and 7 of the team's 10 plays of 20-plus yards in the last four games. Koby Howard is doubtful again. Even a limited Sowell caps this offense.
Purdue can score on this defense. Penn State has given up 213, 135, 422 and 122 rushing yards in Big Ten games and has one sack in each. Ryan Browne threw for 378 at UCLA and 329 against Wake Forest, and Purdue has scored at least 24 in 5 of 6 games against FBS teams. The 12-point loss to Washington was 26-31 until a 53-yard touchdown run with 10:30 left.
The risk is real. Purdue's defense has allowed 34.5 points a game against FBS teams, defensive back Jaden Mangham is doubtful, and a desperate home team with bodies returning on defense could finally get Becht a clean day.
But a team that hasn't scored more than 23 against anyone in the Big Ten is a tough ask to win by double digits, and the hook over 10 is real value. Purdue plus the points.
Purdue +10.5