Purdue Boilermakers at Penn State Nittany Lions
O/U 54.5 · SPREAD Penn State Nittany Lions -10.5 · Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Purdue Boilermakers +10.5 -102
- Published odds
- -102
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 17-31
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 53 moves| Market | Opened Oct 25 12:31 PM | Close Sat 4:08 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Penn State Nittany Lions -7 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-108) | +3 |
| TOTAL | 52.5 (-108) | 55.5 (-120) | +3 |
| MONEYLINE | Penn State Nittany Lions -285 | Penn State Nittany Lions -375 | −90 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 25 12:31 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -7 (-110) | 52.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -285 · Purdue Boilermakers +230 |
| Oct 25 1:31 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -285 · Purdue Boilermakers +230 |
| Oct 25 2:31 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-105) | Penn State Nittany Lions -275 · Purdue Boilermakers +225 |
| Oct 25 3:31 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -285 · Purdue Boilermakers +230 |
| Oct 25 4:31 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -285 · Purdue Boilermakers +230 |
| Oct 25 5:31 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-108) | 53.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -295 · Purdue Boilermakers +240 |
| Oct 25 6:31 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -8 (-108) | 53.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -300 · Purdue Boilermakers +250 |
| Oct 26 9:31 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -8 (-108) | 53.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -300 · Purdue Boilermakers +240 |
| Oct 26 11:32 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-112) | 53.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -300 · Purdue Boilermakers +240 |
| Oct 26 12:32 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -295 · Purdue Boilermakers +240 |
| Oct 26 2:33 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -295 · Purdue Boilermakers +240 |
| Oct 26 3:33 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -300 · Purdue Boilermakers +240 |
| Oct 26 4:33 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -295 · Purdue Boilermakers +240 |
| Oct 26 5:33 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-115) | Penn State Nittany Lions -295 · Purdue Boilermakers +240 |
| Oct 26 8:34 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-112) | Penn State Nittany Lions -295 · Purdue Boilermakers +240 |
| Oct 27 12:01 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-112) | Penn State Nittany Lions -300 · Purdue Boilermakers +240 |
| Oct 28 8:31 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-112) | Penn State Nittany Lions -295 · Purdue Boilermakers +240 |
| Oct 28 2:48 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -295 · Purdue Boilermakers +240 |
| Oct 28 7:49 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -9 (-108) | 54.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -325 · Purdue Boilermakers +270 |
| Oct 28 11:21 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -9.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -325 · Purdue Boilermakers +270 |
| Thu 12:18 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -9.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -350 · Purdue Boilermakers +275 |
| Thu 1:02 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -9.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-112) | Penn State Nittany Lions -350 · Purdue Boilermakers +280 |
| Thu 3:33 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -9.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-112) | Penn State Nittany Lions -350 · Purdue Boilermakers +275 |
| Thu 3:59 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -9 (-118) | 54.5 (-112) | Penn State Nittany Lions -350 · Purdue Boilermakers +275 |
| Thu 4:04 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -9.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-112) | Penn State Nittany Lions -350 · Purdue Boilermakers +275 |
| Thu 5:06 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -9 (-118) | 54.5 (-112) | Penn State Nittany Lions -350 · Purdue Boilermakers +275 |
| Thu 6:36 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -9.5 (-112) | 54.5 (-112) | Penn State Nittany Lions -350 · Purdue Boilermakers +275 |
| Thu 7:36 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-110) | 54.5 (-115) | Penn State Nittany Lions -350 · Purdue Boilermakers +275 |
| Thu 8:06 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112) | 54.5 (-115) | Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +310 |
| Thu 9:06 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112) | 54.5 (-112) | Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +310 |
| Fri 1:08 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112) | 54.5 (-112) | Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +320 |
| Fri 8:00 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-112) | Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +310 |
| Fri 10:31 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +310 |
| Fri 3:02 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112) | 54.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +300 |
| Fri 5:51 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112) | 54.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +320 |
| Sat 8:31 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112) | 54.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +310 |
| Sat 9:31 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112) | 54.5 (-112) | Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +320 |
| Sat 9:51 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112) | 55.5 (-102) | Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +320 |
| Sat 10:01 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112) | 54.5 (-125) | Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +320 |
| Sat 10:11 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112) | 55.5 (-102) | Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +320 |
| Sat 10:14 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112) | 54.5 (-125) | Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +320 |
| Sat 10:41 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112) | 55.5 (-102) | Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +320 |
| Sat 10:51 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112) | 54.5 (-125) | Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +320 |
| Sat 11:12 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112) | 54.5 (-118) | Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +310 |
| Sat 12:24 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112) | 54.5 (-115) | Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +310 |
| Sat 1:35 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-115) | Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +310 |
| Sat 2:25 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-108) | 55.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +310 |
| Sat 2:35 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-108) | 54.5 (-118) | Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +310 |
| Sat 2:46 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-108) | 55.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +310 |
| Sat 3:07 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-108) | 54.5 (-118) | Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +310 |
| Sat 3:17 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-108) | 55.5 (-108) | Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +310 |
| Sat 3:37 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-108) | 55.5 (-105) | Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +310 |
| Sat 3:47 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-108) | 55.5 (-110) | Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +310 |
| CLOSESat 4:08 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-108) | 55.5 (-120) | Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +310 |
The read
Halloween at Beaver Stadium, 4:15 kickoff, and a Penn State team on a four-game losing streak is laying 10.5 points to a Purdue team that's been more dangerous than its 3-4 record. Penn State has won 11 straight in this series, but both sides are coming off a bye and the past won't cover this number.
To cover, Penn State has to win by 11, and nothing in its Big Ten play says it can. The Nittany Lions have scored 18, 23, 13 and 20 in four conference games, and seven of the 20 against Wisconsin came on a pick-six. They've run for 87 yards a game, converted 18 of 56 third downs and given the ball away seven times. Rocco Becht has thrown 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in league play.
Then there's Chase Sowell, questionable all week with an undisclosed injury. Sowell has 384 of Becht's 913 Big Ten passing yards, 2 of the 3 touchdown passes and 7 of the team's 10 plays of 20-plus yards in the last four games. Koby Howard is doubtful again. Even a limited Sowell caps this offense.
Purdue can score on this defense. Penn State has given up 213, 135, 422 and 122 rushing yards in Big Ten games and has one sack in each. Ryan Browne threw for 378 at UCLA and 329 against Wake Forest, and Purdue has scored at least 24 in 5 of 6 games against FBS teams. The 12-point loss to Washington was 26-31 until a 53-yard touchdown run with 10:30 left.
The risk is real. Purdue's defense has allowed 34.5 points a game against FBS teams, defensive back Jaden Mangham is doubtful, and a desperate home team with bodies returning on defense could finally get Becht a clean day.
But a team that hasn't scored more than 23 against anyone in the Big Ten is a tough ask to win by double digits, and the hook over 10 is real value. Purdue plus the points.
Injuries noted
Purdue Boilermakers: Jaden Mangham (doubtful) — DB #2 listed Doubtful on the Big Ten Update 2 report; De'Nylon Morrissette (doubtful) — WR #8 listed Doubtful on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Kylan Fox (out) — TE #16 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Raderrion Daniels (out) — DB #24 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report
Penn State Nittany Lions: Chase Sowell (questionable) — WR #0 listed Questionable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Jeremiah Cooper (probable) — S #4 listed Probable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Koby Howard (doubtful) — WR #6 listed Doubtful on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Joshua Johnson (out) — CB #15 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Max Granville (out) — DE #18 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Yvan Kemajou (probable) — DE #19 listed Probable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Alex Tatsch (out) — LB #25 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Omarion Davis (out) — S #27 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Christian Askew (out) — CB #30 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Alexander McPherson (probable) — DE #33 listed Probable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Tyler Armstead (out) — CB #35 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Mason Robinson (out) — DE #42 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Alijah Carnell (out) — DT #56 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Will Tompkins (out) — OL #66 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Cooper Alexander (out) — TE #80 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Brian Kortovich (questionable) — TE #83 listed Questionable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Liam Andrews (out) — DT #90 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Armstrong Nnodim (probable) — DT #91 listed Probable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Cristiano Rosa (out) — K #95 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Ryan Browne is PUR's projected starter
8.26 Y/ARyan Browne is PUR's projected starting quarterback. Last Word on Sports (Oct 29, 2026) names Browne as Purdue's quarterback (1,822 yards, 10 TD, 3 INT), and Purdue's official recap (Oct 17, 2026) shows he played the Oct 16 loss to Washington. No opened source quotes Purdue or Barry Odom naming the starter for Oct 31, so he is projected, not confirmed. No opened source reports an injury in the Washington game or limited practice this week, and he is not on the Purdue players listed in the Oct 30 report. A missing report is not confirmation that he is healthy. 2026 line: 1775 passing yards, 65.1% completions, 8.26 yards per attempt, 9-3 TD-INT over 7 games.
Rocco Becht is PSU's confirmed starter
7.92 Y/ARocco Becht is PSU's confirmed starting quarterback. SI (Oct 29, 2026) reports that head coach Matt Campbell 'won't yield on Becht being the right quarterback to start' after the bye. Alex Manske is named only as the backup fans may call for. Greater Lafayette Sports Report (Oct 31, 2026) says Campbell considered a quarterback change but is expected to stay with Becht. Neither source reports a Becht injury or limited practice this week, and the Oct 30 Times Leader availability report does not list him. A missing report is not confirmation that he is healthy. The 'confirmed' status rests on SI's paraphrase of Campbell's position. No direct Campbell quote from this week was found. The direct 'complete faith' quote is from Oct 20 (see context). 2026 line: 1664 passing yards, 62.9% completions, 7.92 yards per attempt, 12-5 TD-INT over 7 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
PSU: 18.9 points allowed per game to PUR's 32.3
13.4 PPGPenn State allows 18.9 points a game, close to its 20.5 last season, while Purdue gives up 32.3, nearly the same as its 31.8. Two seasons of the same numbers make this one of the more reliable gaps on the board. At home, Penn State should be able to score on a defense that has leaked points all along. This gap supports the Nittany Lions' team total more than a fluky stat would.
MISMATCH
PSU: 18.9 points allowed a game to PUR's 32.3
18.9 VS 32.3Penn State is allowing 18.9 points a game, a bit better than 20.5 last season, while Purdue gives up 32.3, almost identical to its 31.8 a year ago. Purdue's defense has been leaky two years running, so expect that to hold. Penn State's offense gets a defense that has struggled all season, and Purdue needs its own offense to keep pace on the road. That defensive gap is the frame for this matchup.
COVERAGE
PSU: 141.3 passing yards allowed per game to PUR's 245.3
104 YPGPenn State allows 141.3 passing yards a game over 7 games, and Purdue gives up 245.3. Teams trailing Penn State would usually throw more, so a low number with that script points to a coverage unit that holds up. Purdue's defense has been loose against the pass, giving Penn State an easy path. A Purdue offense forced to throw into this secondary is a tough spot for its yardage and scoring props.
PSU: 28.7% third downs allowed to PUR's 49.4%
20.6 PPPenn State lets opponents convert 28.7% of third downs over 7 games, while Purdue allows 49.4%. That means Penn State gets off the field and Purdue lets drives keep going about half the time. Seven games is a fair sample for both. Purdue's offense will likely see short drives and punts, and Penn State should string together long possessions, which shapes time of possession and the flow of the total.
REPLACEMENT
Kylan Fox (TE) is out for PUR
OUTTE #16 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Raderrion Daniels (DB) is out for PUR
OUTDB #24 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Joshua Johnson (CB) is out for PSU
OUTCB #15 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Max Granville (DE) is out for PSU
OUTDE #18 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Alex Tatsch (LB) is out for PSU
OUTLB #25 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Omarion Davis (S) is out for PSU
OUTS #27 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Christian Askew (S) is out for PSU
OUTCB #30 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Tyler Armstead (CB) is out for PSU
OUTCB #35 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Mason Robinson (DE) is out for PSU
OUTDE #42 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Alijah Carnell (DT) is out for PSU
OUTDT #56 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Will Tompkins (OL) is out for PSU
OUTOL #66 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Cooper Alexander (TE) is out for PSU
OUTTE #80 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Liam Andrews (DT) is out for PSU
OUTDT #90 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
Cristiano Rosa (PK) is out for PSU
OUTK #95 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)
TEAM RECORD
Big Ten game: PUR 2-2, PSU 0-4 in conference
CONFERENCEThese two share the Big Ten. PUR is 2-2 against it, PSU is 0-4. 2026 standings through 2026-10-31.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 31, 2026 at 8:16 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betrivers, betmgm, draftkings, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
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