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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 31 · 4:15 PM

Purdue Boilermakers at Penn State Nittany Lions

O/U 54.5 · SPREAD Penn State Nittany Lions -10.5 · Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA

GARY'S PICK
Purdue +10.5
NCAAF@ Penn State· -102

Purdue
+10.5

-102 · LOST · PUR 17 · PSU 31

Penn State

The pick & result

Published pick
Purdue Boilermakers +10.5 -102
Published odds
-102
Result
Lost
Final score
17-31

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 53 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 25 12:31 PM
Close
Sat 4:08 PM
Move
SPREADPenn State Nittany Lions -7 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -10 (-108)+3
TOTAL52.5 (-108)55.5 (-120)+3
MONEYLINEPenn State Nittany Lions -285Penn State Nittany Lions -375−90
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 25 12:31 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -7 (-110)52.5 (-108)Penn State Nittany Lions -285 · Purdue Boilermakers +230
Oct 25 1:31 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-108)52.5 (-108)Penn State Nittany Lions -285 · Purdue Boilermakers +230
Oct 25 2:31 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-108)52.5 (-105)Penn State Nittany Lions -275 · Purdue Boilermakers +225
Oct 25 3:31 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-108)51.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -285 · Purdue Boilermakers +230
Oct 25 4:31 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-108)52.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -285 · Purdue Boilermakers +230
Oct 25 5:31 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-108)53.5 (-108)Penn State Nittany Lions -295 · Purdue Boilermakers +240
Oct 25 6:31 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -8 (-108)53.5 (-108)Penn State Nittany Lions -300 · Purdue Boilermakers +250
Oct 26 9:31 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -8 (-108)53.5 (-108)Penn State Nittany Lions -300 · Purdue Boilermakers +240
Oct 26 11:32 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-112)53.5 (-108)Penn State Nittany Lions -300 · Purdue Boilermakers +240
Oct 26 12:32 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-110)53.5 (-108)Penn State Nittany Lions -295 · Purdue Boilermakers +240
Oct 26 2:33 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-110)53.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -295 · Purdue Boilermakers +240
Oct 26 3:33 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-110)53.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -300 · Purdue Boilermakers +240
Oct 26 4:33 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-110)53.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -295 · Purdue Boilermakers +240
Oct 26 5:33 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-110)54.5 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -295 · Purdue Boilermakers +240
Oct 26 8:34 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-110)54.5 (-112)Penn State Nittany Lions -295 · Purdue Boilermakers +240
Oct 27 12:01 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-110)54.5 (-112)Penn State Nittany Lions -300 · Purdue Boilermakers +240
Oct 28 8:31 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-110)54.5 (-112)Penn State Nittany Lions -295 · Purdue Boilermakers +240
Oct 28 2:48 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -7.5 (-110)54.5 (-108)Penn State Nittany Lions -295 · Purdue Boilermakers +240
Oct 28 7:49 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -9 (-108)54.5 (-108)Penn State Nittany Lions -325 · Purdue Boilermakers +270
Oct 28 11:21 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-108)Penn State Nittany Lions -325 · Purdue Boilermakers +270
Thu 12:18 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -350 · Purdue Boilermakers +275
Thu 1:02 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-112)Penn State Nittany Lions -350 · Purdue Boilermakers +280
Thu 3:33 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-112)Penn State Nittany Lions -350 · Purdue Boilermakers +275
Thu 3:59 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -9 (-118)54.5 (-112)Penn State Nittany Lions -350 · Purdue Boilermakers +275
Thu 4:04 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -9.5 (-110)54.5 (-112)Penn State Nittany Lions -350 · Purdue Boilermakers +275
Thu 5:06 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -9 (-118)54.5 (-112)Penn State Nittany Lions -350 · Purdue Boilermakers +275
Thu 6:36 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -9.5 (-112)54.5 (-112)Penn State Nittany Lions -350 · Purdue Boilermakers +275
Thu 7:36 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-110)54.5 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -350 · Purdue Boilermakers +275
Thu 8:06 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112)54.5 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +310
Thu 9:06 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112)54.5 (-112)Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +310
Fri 1:08 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112)54.5 (-112)Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +320
Fri 8:00 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -10.5 (-108)54.5 (-112)Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +310
Fri 10:31 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -10.5 (-108)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +310
Fri 3:02 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +300
Fri 5:51 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112)54.5 (-108)Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +320
Sat 8:31 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112)54.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +310
Sat 9:31 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112)54.5 (-112)Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +320
Sat 9:51 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112)55.5 (-102)Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +320
Sat 10:01 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112)54.5 (-125)Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +320
Sat 10:11 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112)55.5 (-102)Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +320
Sat 10:14 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112)54.5 (-125)Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +320
Sat 10:41 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112)55.5 (-102)Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +320
Sat 10:51 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112)54.5 (-125)Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +320
Sat 11:12 AMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112)54.5 (-118)Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +310
Sat 12:24 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-112)54.5 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +310
Sat 1:35 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -10.5 (-108)54.5 (-115)Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +310
Sat 2:25 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-108)55.5 (-108)Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +310
Sat 2:35 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-108)54.5 (-118)Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +310
Sat 2:46 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-108)55.5 (-108)Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +310
Sat 3:07 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-108)54.5 (-118)Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +310
Sat 3:17 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-108)55.5 (-108)Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +310
Sat 3:37 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-108)55.5 (-105)Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +310
Sat 3:47 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-108)55.5 (-110)Penn State Nittany Lions -400 · Purdue Boilermakers +310
CLOSESat 4:08 PMPenn State Nittany Lions -10 (-108)55.5 (-120)Penn State Nittany Lions -375 · Purdue Boilermakers +310

The read

Halloween at Beaver Stadium, 4:15 kickoff, and a Penn State team on a four-game losing streak is laying 10.5 points to a Purdue team that's been more dangerous than its 3-4 record. Penn State has won 11 straight in this series, but both sides are coming off a bye and the past won't cover this number.

To cover, Penn State has to win by 11, and nothing in its Big Ten play says it can. The Nittany Lions have scored 18, 23, 13 and 20 in four conference games, and seven of the 20 against Wisconsin came on a pick-six. They've run for 87 yards a game, converted 18 of 56 third downs and given the ball away seven times. Rocco Becht has thrown 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in league play.

Then there's Chase Sowell, questionable all week with an undisclosed injury. Sowell has 384 of Becht's 913 Big Ten passing yards, 2 of the 3 touchdown passes and 7 of the team's 10 plays of 20-plus yards in the last four games. Koby Howard is doubtful again. Even a limited Sowell caps this offense.

Purdue can score on this defense. Penn State has given up 213, 135, 422 and 122 rushing yards in Big Ten games and has one sack in each. Ryan Browne threw for 378 at UCLA and 329 against Wake Forest, and Purdue has scored at least 24 in 5 of 6 games against FBS teams. The 12-point loss to Washington was 26-31 until a 53-yard touchdown run with 10:30 left.

The risk is real. Purdue's defense has allowed 34.5 points a game against FBS teams, defensive back Jaden Mangham is doubtful, and a desperate home team with bodies returning on defense could finally get Becht a clean day.

But a team that hasn't scored more than 23 against anyone in the Big Ten is a tough ask to win by double digits, and the hook over 10 is real value. Purdue plus the points.

Injuries noted

Purdue Boilermakers: Jaden Mangham (doubtful) — DB #2 listed Doubtful on the Big Ten Update 2 report; De'Nylon Morrissette (doubtful) — WR #8 listed Doubtful on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Kylan Fox (out) — TE #16 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Raderrion Daniels (out) — DB #24 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report

Penn State Nittany Lions: Chase Sowell (questionable) — WR #0 listed Questionable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Jeremiah Cooper (probable) — S #4 listed Probable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Koby Howard (doubtful) — WR #6 listed Doubtful on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Joshua Johnson (out) — CB #15 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Max Granville (out) — DE #18 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Yvan Kemajou (probable) — DE #19 listed Probable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Alex Tatsch (out) — LB #25 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Omarion Davis (out) — S #27 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Christian Askew (out) — CB #30 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Alexander McPherson (probable) — DE #33 listed Probable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Tyler Armstead (out) — CB #35 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Mason Robinson (out) — DE #42 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Alijah Carnell (out) — DT #56 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Will Tompkins (out) — OL #66 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Cooper Alexander (out) — TE #80 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Brian Kortovich (questionable) — TE #83 listed Questionable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Liam Andrews (out) — DT #90 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Armstrong Nnodim (probable) — DT #91 listed Probable on the Big Ten Update 2 report; Cristiano Rosa (out) — K #95 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Ryan Browne is PUR's projected starter

    8.26 Y/A

    Ryan Browne is PUR's projected starting quarterback. Last Word on Sports (Oct 29, 2026) names Browne as Purdue's quarterback (1,822 yards, 10 TD, 3 INT), and Purdue's official recap (Oct 17, 2026) shows he played the Oct 16 loss to Washington. No opened source quotes Purdue or Barry Odom naming the starter for Oct 31, so he is projected, not confirmed. No opened source reports an injury in the Washington game or limited practice this week, and he is not on the Purdue players listed in the Oct 30 report. A missing report is not confirmation that he is healthy. 2026 line: 1775 passing yards, 65.1% completions, 8.26 yards per attempt, 9-3 TD-INT over 7 games.

  • Rocco Becht is PSU's confirmed starter

    7.92 Y/A

    Rocco Becht is PSU's confirmed starting quarterback. SI (Oct 29, 2026) reports that head coach Matt Campbell 'won't yield on Becht being the right quarterback to start' after the bye. Alex Manske is named only as the backup fans may call for. Greater Lafayette Sports Report (Oct 31, 2026) says Campbell considered a quarterback change but is expected to stay with Becht. Neither source reports a Becht injury or limited practice this week, and the Oct 30 Times Leader availability report does not list him. A missing report is not confirmation that he is healthy. The 'confirmed' status rests on SI's paraphrase of Campbell's position. No direct Campbell quote from this week was found. The direct 'complete faith' quote is from Oct 20 (see context). 2026 line: 1664 passing yards, 62.9% completions, 7.92 yards per attempt, 12-5 TD-INT over 7 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • PSU: 18.9 points allowed per game to PUR's 32.3

    13.4 PPG

    Penn State allows 18.9 points a game, close to its 20.5 last season, while Purdue gives up 32.3, nearly the same as its 31.8. Two seasons of the same numbers make this one of the more reliable gaps on the board. At home, Penn State should be able to score on a defense that has leaked points all along. This gap supports the Nittany Lions' team total more than a fluky stat would.

MISMATCH

  • PSU: 18.9 points allowed a game to PUR's 32.3

    18.9 VS 32.3

    Penn State is allowing 18.9 points a game, a bit better than 20.5 last season, while Purdue gives up 32.3, almost identical to its 31.8 a year ago. Purdue's defense has been leaky two years running, so expect that to hold. Penn State's offense gets a defense that has struggled all season, and Purdue needs its own offense to keep pace on the road. That defensive gap is the frame for this matchup.

COVERAGE

  • PSU: 141.3 passing yards allowed per game to PUR's 245.3

    104 YPG

    Penn State allows 141.3 passing yards a game over 7 games, and Purdue gives up 245.3. Teams trailing Penn State would usually throw more, so a low number with that script points to a coverage unit that holds up. Purdue's defense has been loose against the pass, giving Penn State an easy path. A Purdue offense forced to throw into this secondary is a tough spot for its yardage and scoring props.

  • PSU: 28.7% third downs allowed to PUR's 49.4%

    20.6 PP

    Penn State lets opponents convert 28.7% of third downs over 7 games, while Purdue allows 49.4%. That means Penn State gets off the field and Purdue lets drives keep going about half the time. Seven games is a fair sample for both. Purdue's offense will likely see short drives and punts, and Penn State should string together long possessions, which shapes time of possession and the flow of the total.

REPLACEMENT

  • Kylan Fox (TE) is out for PUR

    OUT

    TE #16 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Raderrion Daniels (DB) is out for PUR

    OUT

    DB #24 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Joshua Johnson (CB) is out for PSU

    OUT

    CB #15 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Max Granville (DE) is out for PSU

    OUT

    DE #18 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Alex Tatsch (LB) is out for PSU

    OUT

    LB #25 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Omarion Davis (S) is out for PSU

    OUT

    S #27 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Christian Askew (S) is out for PSU

    OUT

    CB #30 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Tyler Armstead (CB) is out for PSU

    OUT

    CB #35 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Mason Robinson (DE) is out for PSU

    OUT

    DE #42 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Alijah Carnell (DT) is out for PSU

    OUT

    DT #56 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Will Tompkins (OL) is out for PSU

    OUT

    OL #66 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Cooper Alexander (TE) is out for PSU

    OUT

    TE #80 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Liam Andrews (DT) is out for PSU

    OUT

    DT #90 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Cristiano Rosa (PK) is out for PSU

    OUT

    K #95 listed Out on the Big Ten Update 2 report Big Ten availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 19:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

TEAM RECORD

  • Big Ten game: PUR 2-2, PSU 0-4 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the Big Ten. PUR is 2-2 against it, PSU is 0-4. 2026 standings through 2026-10-31.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 31, 2026 at 8:16 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betrivers, betmgm, draftkings, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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