Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue Boilermakers

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• GARY'S PICK

  RYAN BROWNEPASSING YARDS OVER 217.5

  NCAAFPurdue· -114

  LOST · ACTUAL 111

  GARY'S TAKE

  This number assumes Notre Dame cuts Ryan Browne's production by a third, and I don't think the Irish are equipped to do that today. Browne has thrown for 977 yards through three games, about 325 a game, on 10.3 yards per attempt. He leads the Big Ten in passing, and his last outing was 378 yards and three touchdowns on the road at UCLA. He also spreads the ball around. Asaad Waseem and Xavier Townsend both went over 140 yards in that game, so a defense can't take away one receiver and call it done. Notre Dame is a much better defense than anything Purdue has seen, and that is why the line sits at 217.5 and not near his average. But the Irish are thin in exactly the wrong place. Brauntae Johnson has been out since the opener, Luke Talich is out with a wrist injury, and true freshman Joey O'Brien is making his first career start at safety. The Irish already rank 88th in explosiveness allowed. A quarterback who averages double-digit yards per attempt will go after a freshman safety on his first start. Game script helps too. Notre Dame is a big favorite, so Purdue should be throwing for most of the second half. Even if Browne's efficiency drops to around 7 yards per attempt against a better defense, 32 to 35 throws gets him past this number. The Irish offense also moves slowly and ranks 113th in explosiveness, so Purdue should not fall so far behind early that the game ends before Browne gets his volume. The risk is turnovers. Notre Dame is +8 in turnover margin, and a pick or two could end drives early. Only three of those eight takeaways were interceptions, though, and Browne has thrown one all season. Notre Dame's red-zone defense is excellent, but that limits points, not yards between the 20s. The number is too low for a quarterback averaging 325 a game against a secondary starting a freshman at safety. I'll take the over at -114.

  ×

  Ryan Browne
  Passing Yards over 217.5

  -114 · LOST · ACTUAL 111

  Purdue

  Read Gary’s Take

  This number assumes Notre Dame cuts Ryan Browne's production by a third, and I don't think the Irish are equipped to do that today.

  Browne has thrown for 977 yards through three games, about 325 a game, on 10.3 yards per attempt. He leads the Big Ten in passing, and his last outing was 378 yards and three touchdowns on the road at UCLA. He also spreads the ball around. Asaad Waseem and Xavier Townsend both went over 140 yards in that game, so a defense can't take away one receiver and call it done.

  Notre Dame is a much better defense than anything Purdue has seen, and that is why the line sits at 217.5 and not near his average. But the Irish are thin in exactly the wrong place. Brauntae Johnson has been out since the opener, Luke Talich is out with a wrist injury, and true freshman Joey O'Brien is making his first career start at safety. The Irish already rank 88th in explosiveness allowed. A quarterback who averages double-digit yards per attempt will go after a freshman safety on his first start.

  Game script helps too. Notre Dame is a big favorite, so Purdue should be throwing for most of the second half. Even if Browne's efficiency drops to around 7 yards per attempt against a better defense, 32 to 35 throws gets him past this number. The Irish offense also moves slowly and ranks 113th in explosiveness, so Purdue should not fall so far behind early that the game ends before Browne gets his volume.

  The risk is turnovers. Notre Dame is +8 in turnover margin, and a pick or two could end drives early. Only three of those eight takeaways were interceptions, though, and Browne has thrown one all season. Notre Dame's red-zone defense is excellent, but that limits points, not yards between the 20s. The number is too low for a quarterback averaging 325 a game against a secondary starting a freshman at safety. I'll take the over at -114.

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