Washington Huskies at Purdue Boilermakers
O/U 50.5 · SPREAD Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 · Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Purdue Boilermakers -2.5 -128
- Published odds
- -128
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 38-26
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 65 moves| Market | Opened Oct 11 3:03 PM | Close Oct 16 7:51 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Purdue Boilermakers -3 (-105) | Purdue Boilermakers -3 (-115) | Price |
| TOTAL | 52.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-108) | −2 |
| MONEYLINE | Purdue Boilermakers -150 | Purdue Boilermakers -160 | −10 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 11 3:03 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3 (-105) | 52.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -150 · Washington Huskies +125 |
| Oct 11 4:03 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3 (-108) | 52.5 (-110) | Purdue Boilermakers -160 · Washington Huskies +130 |
| Oct 11 5:03 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3 (-118) | 52.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +138 |
| Oct 11 6:03 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3 (-112) | 52.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -160 · Washington Huskies +130 |
| Oct 11 7:03 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3 (-112) | 52.5 (-105) | Purdue Boilermakers -160 · Washington Huskies +130 |
| Oct 11 8:03 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3 (-115) | 52.5 (-105) | Purdue Boilermakers -160 · Washington Huskies +135 |
| Oct 11 9:03 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3 (-118) | 52.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +135 |
| Oct 12 6:00 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3 (-112) | 52.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -160 · Washington Huskies +135 |
| Oct 12 8:01 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3 (-115) | 52.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -160 · Washington Huskies +135 |
| Oct 12 3:34 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3 (-112) | 52.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -155 · Washington Huskies +130 |
| Oct 12 5:34 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-105) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 12 6:36 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-105) | 52.5 (-105) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 13 6:00 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-105) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 13 7:00 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-105) | 52.5 (-105) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 13 8:30 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-105) | 51.5 (-112) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 13 1:32 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-112) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 13 6:32 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-105) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +145 |
| Oct 14 11:02 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-105) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 14 11:32 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-105) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 14 12:34 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-105) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 14 5:06 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-105) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 14 5:37 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-105) | 51.5 (-112) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 14 6:08 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-105) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 14 8:08 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-105) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +145 |
| Oct 14 8:38 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-112) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +145 |
| Oct 14 10:08 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-105) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 14 11:08 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-115) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 15 12:09 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-110) | 52.5 (-105) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 15 7:31 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-112) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 15 8:32 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-115) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 15 9:00 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-115) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 15 10:01 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-115) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 15 10:31 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-112) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 15 11:01 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-115) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 15 12:01 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 15 12:31 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +145 |
| Oct 15 5:00 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 15 5:11 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 15 6:49 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 15 7:00 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 15 7:20 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-105) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 15 7:30 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-105) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +145 |
| Oct 16 12:24 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-105) | 50.5 (-105) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 16 5:00 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-105) | 50.5 (-110) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 16 7:31 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-102) | 50.5 (-105) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 16 8:01 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-102) | 50.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 16 8:31 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +145 |
| Oct 16 9:31 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +145 |
| Oct 16 10:01 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-105) | 50.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 16 10:31 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-105) | 50.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 16 11:01 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-105) | 50.5 (-110) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 16 11:32 AM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-105) | 50.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 16 12:00 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-105) | 50.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +145 |
| Oct 16 12:32 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-105) | 50.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -175 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 16 1:02 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3 (-112) | 50.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -160 · Washington Huskies +130 |
| Oct 16 1:32 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3 (-115) | 50.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -160 · Washington Huskies +135 |
| Oct 16 2:02 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-102) | 50.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +138 |
| Oct 16 2:32 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3 (-115) | 50.5 (-110) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +138 |
| Oct 16 4:32 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3 (-118) | 50.5 (-110) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +135 |
| Oct 16 5:00 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3 (-120) | 50.5 (-110) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 16 5:30 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-102) | 50.5 (-110) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +138 |
| Oct 16 6:00 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-102) | 50.5 (-110) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 16 6:10 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-102) | 50.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +140 |
| Oct 16 7:11 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-102) | 50.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -165 · Washington Huskies +138 |
| Oct 16 7:41 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -160 · Washington Huskies +135 |
| CLOSEOct 16 7:51 PM | Purdue Boilermakers -3 (-115) | 50.5 (-108) | Purdue Boilermakers -160 · Washington Huskies +135 |
The read
Friday night under the lights at Ross-Ade, two 3-3 Big Ten teams are heading in opposite directions. Purdue comes in off wins at Illinois and over Minnesota. Washington arrives off losses to Minnesota, USC and Iowa, and Elijah Brown is expected to start in place of a banged-up Demond Williams Jr.
Look past the matching records and Purdue has been the better team. The Boilermakers' losses came to Notre Dame, UCLA and Wake Forest, all ranked, and they took Wake to overtime. Washington's wins came against Washington State, Utah State and an FCS opponent, and the Huskies needed everything to get by Utah State 16-14. Purdue's offense has posted a 46.4% success rate against much tougher defenses than the ones behind Washington's 41.6%. The common opponent tells the same story: Purdue beat Minnesota 41-13, while Washington lost to the Gophers at home 24-27 with Williams on the field.
The best unit in this game belongs to Purdue. Ryan Browne has thrown one interception all season and has hit big plays against good defenses. That takes away the turnovers Ryan Walters' defense feasted on against weaker teams. The worst unit belongs to Washington. That offense ran 25 times for -3 yards against Iowa and went 1-12 on third down at USC. It's down to Brian Bonner Jr. in the backfield, with Jack Shaffer out up front. Meanwhile, the Washington front that Iowa just gashed for 263 rushing yards is without Xe'ree Alexander and Kai McClendon.
Yes, this has a whiff of buying high. Purdue's rushing explosion against Minnesota was an outlier, and Brown looked competent in relief. But Washington isn't a good team that has looked bad. It's a mediocre team that hasn't beaten an FBS opponent with a winning record. The -128 price isn't cheap, so this is a measured play, not a hammer. Purdue just needs to win by a field goal at home, and the season says it should.
Injuries noted
Washington Huskies: Demond Williams Jr. (questionable) — Quarterback has a rib injury; remains questionable on the October 15 game-specific update.; Ansu Sanoe (out) — Running back upgraded from questionable to out for Purdue; condition undisclosed.; Jack Shaffer (out) — Offensive lineman changed from questionable to out in the October 15 update; condition unspecified.; Kai McClendon (out) — Defensive lineman changed from questionable to out in the October 15 update; condition unspecified.; Xe'ree Alexander (out) — Linebacker has a high ankle sprain; October 15 reporting changes his designation from doubtful to out.; Champ Taulealea (probable) — Offensive lineman changed from questionable to probable in the October 15 update; condition unspecified.; Jacob Lane (probable) — Edge defender changed from questionable to probable in the October 15 update; condition undisclosed.; Jeron Jones (probable) — Cornerback changed from questionable to probable in the October 15 update; condition undisclosed.; Jordan Clay (probable) — Wide receiver changed from questionable to probable for Purdue; condition undisclosed.; Justin Hylkema (probable) — Offensive lineman changed from questionable to probable in the October 15 update; condition unspecified.; CJ Christian (out) — Safety remains out on the game-specific update; current report does not specify the condition.; Christian Moss (out) — Wide receiver remains out on the game-specific update; condition unspecified.; Jayden Limar (out) — Running back remains out on the game-specific update; current report does not specify the condition.; Jordan Washington (out) — Running back remains out on the game-specific update; current report does not specify the condition.; Quaid Carr (out) — Running back remains out on the game-specific update; current report does not specify the condition.; Rahshawn Clark (probable) — Defensive back remains probable; Fisch described a minor injury without specifying the condition.
Purdue Boilermakers: Mister Clark (out) — October 14 game-specific availability reporting lists the defensive back absent; condition unspecified.; Joey Tanona (out) — Offensive tackle remains unavailable and has not been cleared to play this season.; Kylan Fox (out for season) — Tight end remains out with a fall-camp knee injury; expected to miss the 2026 season.; Raderrion Daniels (out for season) — Defensive back remains out with a fall-camp knee injury; expected to miss the 2026 season.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Ryan Browne is PUR's projected starter
8.63 Y/ARyan Browne is PUR's projected starting quarterback. Purdue's Washington game-week notes identify Browne as its starting quarterback. A separate game-day starter announcement was not verified. 2026 line: 1502 passing yards, 68.4% completions, 8.63 yards per attempt, 8-1 TD-INT over 6 games.
Elijah Brown is WASH's projected starter
6.57 Y/AElijah Brown is WASH's projected starting quarterback. October 15 reporting says Brown will likely start at Purdue because Demond Williams Jr.'s rib injury leaves his availability uncertain; a definitive starter announcement was not established. 2026 line: 276 passing yards, 71.4% completions, 6.57 yards per attempt, 4-0 TD-INT over 2 games.
TRENCHES
PUR: 133 rushing yards per game to WASH's 90.3
42.7 YPGPurdue runs for 133 yards a game, while Washington manages 90.3, so Purdue leans on the ground and Washington has stalled there. Last season Washington ran for 165.5 over 13 games, so this drop is a big change in identity. Purdue's 126.4 last season says their number is steady. If Washington can't find its old ground game on the road, this matchup tilts toward Purdue setting the tempo and Washington needing to throw.
PACE & SCRIPT
WASH: 22.2 points allowed per game to PUR's 31.3
9.2 PPGWashington's defense gives up 22.2 points a game, while Purdue's allows 31.3, so one side keeps games in a range and the other turns them into shootouts. Both numbers sit close to last season, when Washington allowed 18.7 and Purdue 31.8, which makes six games look like the real thing. Washington's figure has crept up a bit, but Purdue's leak looks like who they are. Purdue at home likely has to outscore people, and that shapes how this game gets played.
PUR: 32:53 time of possession per game to WASH's 29:08
3:45 TOPWASH is at 29:08 time of possession per game over 6 games; PUR is at 32:53 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 15. Last season WASH was at 29:35 over 13 games and PUR at 28:02 over 12 games.
PUR: 32.2 points per game to WASH's 26.2
6 PPGWASH is at 26.2 points per game over 6 games; PUR is at 32.2 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 15. Last season WASH was at 34.1 over 13 games and PUR at 18.8 over 12 games.
TURNOVERS
WASH: 1.5 takeaways per game to PUR's 0.83
0.67 TOWashington's defense forces about one and a half turnovers a game across six games, almost double Purdue's rate. Takeaways swing more from game to game than most defensive numbers, so this edge can shrink quickly. Over six games it still points to a Washington unit that creates extra possessions. In a road spot like this one, a turnover edge can matter in close games and in field-position battles.
MISMATCH
PUR: 45.2% on third down to WASH's 31.3%
45.2 VS 31.3Purdue's offense is moving the chains on nearly half its third downs, while Washington's offense converts fewer than a third. Both numbers flipped from last season, when Washington hit 50.3% over 13 games and Purdue 38.6% over 12. Six games is a real sample, though Washington's drop from that 50.3% leaves room to climb back. Short third downs favor Purdue's ability to extend drives, so watch whether Washington's offense keeps stalling and handing Purdue the ball back.
COVERAGE
WASH: 30.7% third downs allowed to PUR's 48.6%
17.9 PPWashington has let opponents convert fewer than a third of their third downs over six games, while Purdue has given up a conversion on nearly half. Six games is a real sample, though the sheet does not show who either defense faced, so some of that gap could be schedule. Purdue's mark suggests its defense struggles to get off the field, which matters when it hosts Washington. A bettor can lean on this when judging whether Washington's offense sustains drives in this game.
WASH: 193.7 passing yards allowed per game to PUR's 235.8
42.2 YPGWASH is at 193.7 passing yards allowed per game over 6 games; PUR is at 235.8 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 15.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
WASH lead the series with PUR since 2025
1-0 SERIESThe whole series is one game: Washington beat Purdue 49-13 at home on Nov 15 last season, a one-way result. That meeting was in Washington, and this one moves to Purdue's place, so the setting flips. One lopsided game is a thin record to lean on, and rosters turn over between seasons. Use it as a sign of how wide the gap was last year, then check whether this season's form backs it up before trusting it on the road.
REPLACEMENT
Raderrion Daniels (DB) is out for the season for PUR
OUT FOR SEASONDefensive back; fall-camp knee injury. Purdue Boilermakers On SI: Purdue vs. Washington Availability Report — Which QB Will Boilers Face? (2026-10-14)
Kylan Fox (TE) is out for the season for PUR
OUT FOR SEASONTight end; fall-camp knee injury. Purdue Boilermakers On SI: Purdue vs. Washington Availability Report — Which QB Will Boilers Face? (2026-10-14)
Ansu Sanoe (RB) is out for WASH
OUTRunning back; upgraded absence designation in the October 15 report reproduction. Condition unspecified. The Sports Wire: Washington 2026 — October 15 Big Ten availability report reproduction for Purdue (2026-10-15)
Jack Shaffer (OL) is out for WASH
OUTOffensive lineman; October 15 designation. Condition unspecified. The Sports Wire: Washington 2026 — October 15 Big Ten availability report reproduction for Purdue (2026-10-15)
Kai McClendon (DL) is out for WASH
OUTDefensive lineman; October 15 designation. Condition unspecified. The Sports Wire: Washington 2026 — October 15 Big Ten availability report reproduction for Purdue (2026-10-15)
Xe'ree Alexander (LB) is out for WASH
OUTLinebacker; high ankle sprain. October 15 update supersedes the earlier doubtful designation. The Spokesman-Review / Seattle Times: Can Washington Huskies backup QB Elijah Brown spark the offense at Purdue? (2026-10-15) The Sports Wire: Washington 2026 — October 15 Big Ten availability report reproduction for Purdue (2026-10-15) RotoWire College Football Injury News: Xe'ree Alexander — Out Friday (2026-10-15)
CJ Christian (S) is out for WASH
OUTSafety; carried forward as unavailable. The Sports Wire: Washington 2026 — October 15 Big Ten availability report reproduction for Purdue (2026-10-15)
Christian Moss (WR) is out for WASH
OUTWide receiver; carried forward as unavailable. The Sports Wire: Washington 2026 — October 15 Big Ten availability report reproduction for Purdue (2026-10-15)
Jayden Limar (RB) is out for WASH
OUTRunning back; carried forward as unavailable. The Sports Wire: Washington 2026 — October 15 Big Ten availability report reproduction for Purdue (2026-10-15)
Jordan Washington (RB) is out for WASH
OUTRunning back; carried forward as unavailable. The Sports Wire: Washington 2026 — October 15 Big Ten availability report reproduction for Purdue (2026-10-15)
Quaid Carr (RB) is out for WASH
OUTRunning back; carried forward as unavailable. The Sports Wire: Washington 2026 — October 15 Big Ten availability report reproduction for Purdue (2026-10-15)
Mister Clark (DB) is out for PUR
OUTDefensive back; remains unavailable after playing the season opener. Condition unspecified. Purdue Boilermakers On SI: Purdue vs. Washington Availability Report — Which QB Will Boilers Face? (2026-10-14)
Joey Tanona (OL) is out for PUR
OUTOffensive tackle; has not been cleared to play this season. Purdue Boilermakers On SI: Purdue vs. Washington Availability Report — Which QB Will Boilers Face? (2026-10-14)
Demond Williams Jr. (QB) is questionable for WASH
QUESTIONABLEQuarterback; rib injury. October 15 availability reproduction retains questionable status. The Spokesman-Review / Seattle Times: Can Washington Huskies backup QB Elijah Brown spark the offense at Purdue? (2026-10-15) The Sports Wire: Washington 2026 — October 15 Big Ten availability report reproduction for Purdue (2026-10-15)
Justin Hylkema (OL) is probable for WASH
PROBABLEOffensive lineman; October 15 upgrade. The Sports Wire: Washington 2026 — October 15 Big Ten availability report reproduction for Purdue (2026-10-15)
Rahshawn Clark (CB) is probable for WASH
PROBABLEDefensive back; probable designation retained. The Sports Wire: Washington 2026 — October 15 Big Ten availability report reproduction for Purdue (2026-10-15)
Jacob Lane (EDGE) is probable for WASH
PROBABLEEdge defender; October 15 upgrade. The Sports Wire: Washington 2026 — October 15 Big Ten availability report reproduction for Purdue (2026-10-15)
Jeron Jones (CB) is probable for WASH
PROBABLECornerback; October 15 upgrade. The Sports Wire: Washington 2026 — October 15 Big Ten availability report reproduction for Purdue (2026-10-15)
Jordan Clay (WR) is probable for WASH
PROBABLEWide receiver; October 15 upgrade. The Sports Wire: Washington 2026 — October 15 Big Ten availability report reproduction for Purdue (2026-10-15)
Champ Taulealea (OL) is probable for WASH
PROBABLEOffensive lineman; October 15 upgrade. The Sports Wire: Washington 2026 — October 15 Big Ten availability report reproduction for Purdue (2026-10-15)
SITUATIONAL
PUR: 45.2% third-down conversion rate to WASH's 31.3%
14 PPPurdue converts 45.2% of third downs and Washington only 31.3%, so Purdue is the team staying on the field and controlling the clock. That's a flip from last season, when Washington converted 50.3% over 13 games and Purdue 38.6%. Six games is a real sample, but a swing that big for Washington suggests some of it should drift back toward its old level. Lean on Purdue sustaining drives, but don't price Washington's third-down offense as broken for good.
PUR: 23.2 first downs per game to WASH's 19.2
4 FDWASH is at 19.2 first downs per game over 6 games; PUR is at 23.2 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 15. Last season WASH was at 22.5 over 13 games and PUR at 19.3 over 12 games.
PUR: 54.5 penalty yards per game to WASH's 73.2
18.7 YDSWASH is at 73.2 penalty yards per game over 6 games; PUR is at 54.5 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 15. Last season WASH was at 55.3 over 13 games and PUR at 51.1 over 12 games.
TEAM RECORD
Big Ten game: WASH 0-3, PUR 2-1 in conference
CONFERENCEWashington has not won a Big Ten game yet in three tries, while Purdue has taken two of its three. Three conference games is a short sample, and the sheet doesn't say who either team played or by how much, so the records tell you results more than quality. Washington travels to Purdue here, and a winless conference team on the road is a spot where the market can lean hard against it. Check the margins in those three Washington losses before assuming the gap is as wide as the records say.
AFTER GARY
PUR -2.5 → -3.5
GARY +1Gary's number was -2.5; the same book now shows -3.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 16, 2026 at 4:13 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, betrivers, draftkings, betmgm, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
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