Two unbeatens meet under the lights in Provo: No. 2 Notre Dame at 6-0 and No. 8 BYU at 5-0, with the Irish laying 10.5 on the road. Notre Dame is the better team. I just don't think it's this much better at 4,630 feet on a Saturday night. BYU's defense is the real thing. The Cougars allow 35.4% success and 3.3 points per trip inside the 40, and no one has run for more than 3.8 a carry against them. They held Iowa State to 200 yards and TCU to 10 points. Notre Dame's run game has mostly feasted on bad defenses. Jonaz Walton's 181 yards came against Stanford, which ranks 135th in points allowed, while Wisconsin, Rice and Michigan State held the Irish to 3.5 to 3.7 a carry. Now they're without linemen Charles Jagusah and Chris Terek. This should be a short game. Both teams lean on the run, and BYU's offense runs through Bear Bachmeier extending plays. Fewer possessions make big margins harder to build. Notre Dame's best wins away from home were 41-13 over Wisconsin and 37-26 at North Carolina. That North Carolina game is the realistic template here, and even that margin barely clears this number. The line is also stretched by recent results. The Irish just beat Stanford 58-7, while BYU ground out 17-10 and 24-10 wins without LJ Martin. Notre Dame's margins have been padded by 14 takeaways, a rate that won't hold against a BYU team with 3 giveaways all season. Add the 1,320-mile trip, the altitude and BYU's extra day of rest, and 10.5 is more than this game should be. The risk is BYU's offense. Without Martin and right tackle Andrew Gentry, the backs have produced almost nothing. Notre Dame's front has 15 sacks and has smothered every run game it has seen. If Bachmeier has another day like the one at TCU (11-of-24, 62 yards), the Irish can win comfortably without doing much. Notre Dame probably wins. I'll take the points and expect it to be closer than 10.5.
Two unbeatens meet under the lights in Provo: No. 2 Notre Dame at 6-0 and No. 8 BYU at 5-0, with the Irish laying 10.5 on the road. Notre Dame is the better team. I just don't think it's this much better at 4,630 feet on a Saturday night.
BYU's defense is the real thing. The Cougars allow 35.4% success and 3.3 points per trip inside the 40, and no one has run for more than 3.8 a carry against them. They held Iowa State to 200 yards and TCU to 10 points. Notre Dame's run game has mostly feasted on bad defenses. Jonaz Walton's 181 yards came against Stanford, which ranks 135th in points allowed, while Wisconsin, Rice and Michigan State held the Irish to 3.5 to 3.7 a carry. Now they're without linemen Charles Jagusah and Chris Terek.
This should be a short game. Both teams lean on the run, and BYU's offense runs through Bear Bachmeier extending plays. Fewer possessions make big margins harder to build. Notre Dame's best wins away from home were 41-13 over Wisconsin and 37-26 at North Carolina. That North Carolina game is the realistic template here, and even that margin barely clears this number.
The line is also stretched by recent results. The Irish just beat Stanford 58-7, while BYU ground out 17-10 and 24-10 wins without LJ Martin. Notre Dame's margins have been padded by 14 takeaways, a rate that won't hold against a BYU team with 3 giveaways all season. Add the 1,320-mile trip, the altitude and BYU's extra day of rest, and 10.5 is more than this game should be.
The risk is BYU's offense. Without Martin and right tackle Andrew Gentry, the backs have produced almost nothing. Notre Dame's front has 15 sacks and has smothered every run game it has seen. If Bachmeier has another day like the one at TCU (11-of-24, 62 yards), the Irish can win comfortably without doing much.
Notre Dame probably wins. I'll take the points and expect it to be closer than 10.5.
BYU +10.5