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NCAAF · Sat, Sep 19 · 7:30 PM

Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

O/U 52.5 · SPREAD Notre Dame Fighting Irish -17.5

GARY'S PICK
Michigan State +29.5
NCAAF@ Notre Dame· -114

Michigan State
+29.5

-114 · CASHED · MSU 10 · ND 27

Notre Dame

The pick & result

Published pick
Michigan State Spartans +29.5 -114
Published odds
-114
Result
Won
Final score
10-27

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

DRAFTKINGS · 67 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 13 10:15 AM
Close
Sep 19 6:23 PM
Move
SPREADNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -28.5 (-112)−1
TOTAL53.5 (-115)51.5 (-105)−2
MONEYLINENotre Dame Fighting Irish -8000Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000+3000
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 13 10:15 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-105)53.5 (-115)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -8000 · Michigan State Spartans +2200
Sep 13 5:47 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-110)52.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -8000 · Michigan State Spartans +2200
Sep 14 1:03 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-110)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -6500 · Michigan State Spartans +2000
Sep 15 12:01 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-110)51.5 (-120)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -6500 · Michigan State Spartans +2000
Sep 15 2:01 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-108)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -6500 · Michigan State Spartans +2000
Sep 15 3:01 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-110)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -6500 · Michigan State Spartans +2000
Sep 15 4:01 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-110)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 15 6:01 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-110)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 16 12:02 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-105)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 16 6:00 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-110)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 16 9:31 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-105)51.5 (-118)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 16 12:31 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-105)52.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4000 · Michigan State Spartans +1600
Sep 16 2:31 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-110)52.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 16 4:32 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-110)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4000 · Michigan State Spartans +1600
Sep 16 5:18 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-105)51.5 (-115)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 16 6:37 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-105)51.5 (-118)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4000 · Michigan State Spartans +1600
Sep 16 7:37 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-105)51.5 (-118)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 16 8:37 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-105)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 16 10:08 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-105)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3600 · Michigan State Spartans +1500
Sep 16 10:38 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-105)51.5 (-115)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3600 · Michigan State Spartans +1500
Sep 16 11:08 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-105)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4000 · Michigan State Spartans +1600
Sep 16 11:38 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-105)51.5 (-115)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4000 · Michigan State Spartans +1600
Sep 17 12:08 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-105)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3600 · Michigan State Spartans +1500
Sep 17 12:40 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-105)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4000 · Michigan State Spartans +1600
Sep 17 6:30 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-110)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4000 · Michigan State Spartans +1600
Sep 17 7:00 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-108)51.5 (-118)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 17 7:30 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-108)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 17 9:00 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-108)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 17 10:01 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-108)52.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 17 10:31 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-108)51.5 (-118)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 17 12:02 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-108)52.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 17 12:32 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-102)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3600 · Michigan State Spartans +1500
Sep 17 1:02 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-108)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 17 2:02 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-108)51.5 (-118)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 17 2:32 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-108)52.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 17 3:02 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-108)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 17 3:32 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-110)51.5 (-115)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 17 4:02 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-110)52.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 17 4:30 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-110)52.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4000 · Michigan State Spartans +1600
Sep 17 4:41 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-110)52.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 17 4:51 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-105)52.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 17 5:01 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-110)52.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 17 5:11 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-112)52.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 17 5:31 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-110)52.5 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 17 6:01 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-112)52.5 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 17 6:11 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-112)52.5 (-110)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 17 8:01 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-115)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 17 8:31 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-110)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 17 9:31 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-110)52.5 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 17 10:01 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-110)52.5 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 18 12:01 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-115)52.5 (-108)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 18 12:31 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-108)52.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 18 5:01 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-105)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 18 6:00 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-108)51.5 (-118)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 18 7:00 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-108)52.5 (-102)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 18 7:30 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-108)51.5 (-115)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4500 · Michigan State Spartans +1700
Sep 18 8:30 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-108)51.5 (-115)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 19 8:51 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-108)51.5 (-115)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 19 9:21 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -28.5 (-110)51.5 (-115)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 19 9:52 AMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -28.5 (-110)51.5 (-112)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 19 12:24 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-105)51.5 (-112)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 19 1:08 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -28.5 (-112)51.5 (-112)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 19 3:45 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-108)51.5 (-112)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 19 4:21 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -28.5 (-115)51.5 (-112)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 19 4:31 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-108)51.5 (-112)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 19 4:42 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -29.5 (-105)51.5 (-112)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
Sep 19 6:13 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -28.5 (-112)51.5 (-112)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800
CLOSESep 19 6:23 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish -28.5 (-112)51.5 (-105)Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5000 · Michigan State Spartans +1800

The read

A sold-out Notre Dame Stadium hosts the Megaphone Trophy rivalry under the lights. Michigan State brings its rebuilt program into a demanding road setting against the unbeaten Irish.

I’m taking the points because Michigan State has a credible combination of offensive possession and defensive disruption. Cam Edwards has carried 48 times for 250 yards, while Alessio Milivojevic has completed 70.4% of his passes without an interception. My read is that Edwards, supported by receiving production from Rodney Bullard Jr. and Jayden Savoury, gives the Spartans enough ways to extend possessions without relying exclusively on difficult passing situations.

Michigan State’s defense provides the other part of the case. It has stopped 26.8% of opposing carries at or behind the line, and Eli Coenen has three sacks through two games. Notre Dame’s offensive success rate drops from 59.0% on standard downs to 23.3% on passing downs. I expect Michigan State to interrupt enough possessions to make sustained Irish separation harder. Notre Dame’s offensive-line absences primarily affect depth, so this argument rests on Spartan disruption rather than an assumption that the Irish starting line is compromised.

The strongest objection is Notre Dame’s ability to shut down that possession plan. The Irish have allowed a 30.6% success rate, and CJ Carr has generated 10.04 yards per attempt with six touchdown passes. If Edwards struggles and Carr keeps Notre Dame ahead of the chains, Michigan State could struggle to exchange productive drives. The Irish also have a substantial advantage in finishing scoring opportunities.

Still, Notre Dame’s opening results include defensive touchdowns against both opponents and a plus-six turnover margin. Those contributions count, but I’m reluctant to project another game in which takeaways accelerate the scoring so dramatically. Michigan State has committed one turnover through two games; maintaining that discipline is central to this ticket.

I expect Notre Dame’s defense to challenge Michigan State’s offensive efficiency. I also believe the Spartans’ established rushing involvement and demonstrated ability to create negative plays give them enough resistance to stay inside +29.5. That supports the spread, with moderate confidence, rather than an outright-upset bet.

Injuries noted

Michigan State Spartans: Jordan Hall (questionable) — Starting MIKE linebacker and two-time captain; lingering right-arm/elbow injury kept him out against Eastern Michigan. Joe Rossi said the coach, trainers and doctors would determine his Notre Dame availability.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Matty Augustine (out) — Offensive lineman; right-foot injury.; Brauntae Johnson (out) — Defensive back; left-foot injury.; Jason Onye (out) — Defensive tackle; left-ankle injury.; Christopher Burgess Jr. (out) — Defensive lineman; left-tibia injury.; Tiki Hola (out) — Defensive lineman; right-knee injury.; Charles Jagusah (out) — Offensive lineman; left-humerus injury.; Quincy Porter (out) — Wide receiver; left-knee injury. The official weekly list supersedes a third-party questionable designation.; Chaz Smith (out) — Defensive back; right-wrist injury.; Chris Terek (out) — Offensive lineman; right-knee injury.; Owen Strebig (out) — Backup offensive tackle; subsequently ruled out with a concussion after the initial weekly report.; Blake Hebert (questionable) — Third-party injury tracker lists an undisclosed injury and says his availability against Michigan State is unclear; he is absent from the released quarterback depth chart.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Alessio Milivojevic is MSU's confirmed starter

    7.72 Y/A

    Alessio Milivojevic is MSU's confirmed starting quarterback. Michigan State's official game-week notes identify Milivojevic as the returning quarterback and state that he has started six consecutive games, including both 2026 games. 2026 line: 417 passing yards, 70.4% completions, 7.72 yards per attempt, 3-0 TD-INT over 2 games.

  • CJ Carr is ND's confirmed starter

    10.04 Y/A

    CJ Carr is ND's confirmed starting quarterback. Notre Dame's released Michigan State-week depth chart lists Carr first at quarterback. 2026 line: 492 passing yards, 71.4% completions, 10.04 yards per attempt, 6-0 TD-INT over 2 games.

TRENCHES

  • MSU is +89.5 rush yards per game

    89.5 YPG

    MSU is at 204 rushing yards per game over 2 games; ND is at 114.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • ND is scoring +14 points per game

    14 PPG

    MSU is at 32.5 points per game over 2 games; ND is at 46.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.

TURNOVERS

  • ND's defense takes the ball away 2 more times per game

    2 TO

    MSU is at 1 takeaways per game over 2 games; ND is at 3 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.

MISMATCH

  • MSU's ground game against ND's — 204 rush yards a game to 114.5

    204 VS 114.5

    The widest gap on this matchup's tape: rush ypg — MSU 204, ND 114.5, over 2 and 2 game samples.

REPLACEMENT

  • Matty Augustine (OL) is out for ND

    OUT

    Offensive lineman; right-foot injury. NOTRE DAME FOOTBALL: Irish injury report and depth charts VS Michigan State (2026-09-14)

  • Brauntae Johnson (S) is out for ND

    OUT

    Defensive back; left-foot injury. NOTRE DAME FOOTBALL: Irish injury report and depth charts VS Michigan State (2026-09-14)

  • Jason Onye (DL) is out for ND

    OUT

    Defensive tackle; left-ankle injury. NOTRE DAME FOOTBALL: Irish injury report and depth charts VS Michigan State (2026-09-14)

  • Christopher Burgess Jr. (DL) is out for ND

    OUT

    Defensive lineman; left-tibia injury. NOTRE DAME FOOTBALL: Irish injury report and depth charts VS Michigan State (2026-09-14)

  • Tiki Hola (DL) is out for ND

    OUT

    Defensive lineman; right-knee injury. NOTRE DAME FOOTBALL: Irish injury report and depth charts VS Michigan State (2026-09-14)

  • Charles Jagusah (OL) is out for ND

    OUT

    Offensive lineman; left-humerus injury. NOTRE DAME FOOTBALL: Irish injury report and depth charts VS Michigan State (2026-09-14)

  • Quincy Porter (WR) is out for ND

    OUT

    Wide receiver; left-knee injury. The official weekly list supersedes a third-party questionable designation. NOTRE DAME FOOTBALL: Irish injury report and depth charts VS Michigan State (2026-09-14)

  • Chaz Smith (CB) is out for ND

    OUT

    Defensive back; right-wrist injury. NOTRE DAME FOOTBALL: Irish injury report and depth charts VS Michigan State (2026-09-14)

  • Chris Terek (OL) is out for ND

    OUT

    Offensive lineman; right-knee injury. NOTRE DAME FOOTBALL: Irish injury report and depth charts VS Michigan State (2026-09-14)

  • Owen Strebig (OL) is out for ND

    OUT

    Backup offensive tackle; subsequently ruled out with a concussion after the initial weekly report. Notre Dame dealt huge OL depth blow before facing Michigan State (2026-09-18)

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 19, 2026 at 7:42 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betmgm, fanatics, betrivers, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

1
  • GARY'S PICK
    RODNEY BULLARD JR.RECEIVING YARDS OVER 38.5
    NCAAFMichigan State· -113

    Rodney Bullard Jr.
    Receiving Yards over 38.5

    -113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 66

    Michigan State

    Bullard has produced 116 receiving yards on 10 catches through Michigan State’s first two games, clearing this number on a per-game basis without requiring unusually high volume. I expect Notre Dame’s defense to create difficult down-and-distance situations, but that should also keep Bullard involved as Alessio Milivojevic’s established target when the Spartans need manageable completions.

    The concern is game control: Notre Dame has allowed only a 30.6% offensive success rate, and Michigan State could struggle to sustain enough drives for its passing volume to matter. Still, with the Spartans likely needing to throw throughout the second half and Bullard’s line set below 40 yards, I see enough opportunity for him to get over 38.5.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

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