Two 3-4 teams, each three wins from bowl eligibility, meet on a calm, overcast Halloween afternoon in Fort Worth. TCU is laying 6.5, and I don't trust this offense to cover it. Against FBS teams, the Horned Frogs average 16.8 points and have won by more than 6.5 just twice in six tries. All four of their losses came by eight or fewer. The yards are there, but the finishing isn't: 9 touchdowns on 20 red-zone trips against FBS teams, 9 giveaways in the last four games, and Nate McCashland is 7-of-10 on field goals. Even Sonny Dykes says, "We've been our own worst enemy this year." The run game is gone, too. TCU managed 365 yards on 107 carries over its last four games. Now Jeremy Payne is out, Landon Walker is questionable and Joe Pitchford is Exempt. That hides Kansas's worst weakness, a run defense that gave up 362 yards at K-State and 305 at Utah. Jaden Craig will throw it 40-plus times behind a line that has allowed 15 sacks in four games and just lost its position coach. The quarterbacks who beat TCU at home ran on it. West Virginia's Michael Hawkins Jr. ran for 87 yards, and BYU's Bear Bachmeier ran for 66 and scored twice. Isaiah Marshall is that kind of quarterback: 117 rushing yards at K-State, 110 against Middle Tennessee, and the game-winning run against Baylor. Baylor is the common opponent here. TCU ran 26 times for 64 yards at Baylor. Kansas ran 51 times for 240 against the Bears and held the ball for 36:41. The risks are real. Kansas lost by 11 and 17 on the road. Its secondary is missing Syeed Gibbs and Mason Ellis, with Elijah Cannon questionable. Craig threw for 372 and 310 yards in two of his last four games. And everything rides on Marshall, a questionable game-time decision. If Marshall sits, Cole Ballard has thrown eight passes all season and is just back from a shoulder injury. Check the 1 p.m. CT report. With Marshall, I'll take the points. Without Marshall, I'd pass.
Two 3-4 teams, each three wins from bowl eligibility, meet on a calm, overcast Halloween afternoon in Fort Worth. TCU is laying 6.5, and I don't trust this offense to cover it.
Against FBS teams, the Horned Frogs average 16.8 points and have won by more than 6.5 just twice in six tries. All four of their losses came by eight or fewer. The yards are there, but the finishing isn't: 9 touchdowns on 20 red-zone trips against FBS teams, 9 giveaways in the last four games, and Nate McCashland is 7-of-10 on field goals. Even Sonny Dykes says, "We've been our own worst enemy this year."
The run game is gone, too. TCU managed 365 yards on 107 carries over its last four games. Now Jeremy Payne is out, Landon Walker is questionable and Joe Pitchford is Exempt. That hides Kansas's worst weakness, a run defense that gave up 362 yards at K-State and 305 at Utah. Jaden Craig will throw it 40-plus times behind a line that has allowed 15 sacks in four games and just lost its position coach.
The quarterbacks who beat TCU at home ran on it. West Virginia's Michael Hawkins Jr. ran for 87 yards, and BYU's Bear Bachmeier ran for 66 and scored twice. Isaiah Marshall is that kind of quarterback: 117 rushing yards at K-State, 110 against Middle Tennessee, and the game-winning run against Baylor. Baylor is the common opponent here. TCU ran 26 times for 64 yards at Baylor. Kansas ran 51 times for 240 against the Bears and held the ball for 36:41.
The risks are real. Kansas lost by 11 and 17 on the road. Its secondary is missing Syeed Gibbs and Mason Ellis, with Elijah Cannon questionable. Craig threw for 372 and 310 yards in two of his last four games.
And everything rides on Marshall, a questionable game-time decision. If Marshall sits, Cole Ballard has thrown eight passes all season and is just back from a shoulder injury. Check the 1 p.m. CT report. With Marshall, I'll take the points. Without Marshall, I'd pass.
Kansas +6.5