Arizona State Sun Devils at Kansas Jayhawks
O/U 41.5 · SPREAD Kansas Jayhawks -6.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Arizona State Sun Devils +5.5 -110
- Published odds
- -110
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 24-17
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 30 moves| Market | Opened Sep 13 10:15 AM | Close Sep 19 11:38 AM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-110) | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-108) | Price |
| TOTAL | 56.5 (-112) | 51.5 (-102) | −5 |
| MONEYLINE | Kansas Jayhawks -205 | Kansas Jayhawks -218 | −13 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 13 10:15 AM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-110) | 56.5 (-112) | Kansas Jayhawks -205 · Arizona State Sun Devils +170 |
| Sep 13 11:45 AM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-108) | 55.5 (-112) | Kansas Jayhawks -205 · Arizona State Sun Devils +170 |
| Sep 13 4:46 PM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-108) | 53.5 (-115) | Kansas Jayhawks -205 · Arizona State Sun Devils +170 |
| Sep 13 5:47 PM | Kansas Jayhawks -6 (-112) | 52.5 (-112) | Kansas Jayhawks -225 · Arizona State Sun Devils +185 |
| Sep 13 6:46 PM | Kansas Jayhawks -6.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-112) | Kansas Jayhawks -225 · Arizona State Sun Devils +185 |
| Sep 13 7:46 PM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-115) | 52.5 (-112) | Kansas Jayhawks -218 · Arizona State Sun Devils +180 |
| Sep 13 8:46 PM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-112) | Kansas Jayhawks -205 · Arizona State Sun Devils +170 |
| Sep 14 12:03 PM | Kansas Jayhawks -6 (-112) | 52.5 (-112) | Kansas Jayhawks -230 · Arizona State Sun Devils +190 |
| Sep 14 1:03 PM | Kansas Jayhawks -6 (-110) | 52.5 (-105) | Kansas Jayhawks -230 · Arizona State Sun Devils +190 |
| Sep 14 2:03 PM | Kansas Jayhawks -6 (-108) | 51.5 (-115) | Kansas Jayhawks -230 · Arizona State Sun Devils +190 |
| Sep 14 3:03 PM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-105) | 51.5 (-110) | Kansas Jayhawks -205 · Arizona State Sun Devils +170 |
| Sep 14 10:34 PM | Kansas Jayhawks -6 (-108) | 51.5 (-110) | Kansas Jayhawks -225 · Arizona State Sun Devils +185 |
| Sep 15 9:31 AM | Kansas Jayhawks -6 (-108) | 51.5 (-105) | Kansas Jayhawks -225 · Arizona State Sun Devils +185 |
| Sep 15 10:01 AM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-115) | Kansas Jayhawks -225 · Arizona State Sun Devils +185 |
| Sep 15 12:01 PM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-115) | Kansas Jayhawks -218 · Arizona State Sun Devils +180 |
| Sep 15 7:01 PM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-115) | Kansas Jayhawks -205 · Arizona State Sun Devils +170 |
| Sep 15 8:01 PM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-112) | Kansas Jayhawks -205 · Arizona State Sun Devils +170 |
| Sep 16 10:31 AM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-115) | Kansas Jayhawks -205 · Arizona State Sun Devils +170 |
| Sep 16 11:31 AM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-115) | Kansas Jayhawks -218 · Arizona State Sun Devils +180 |
| Sep 16 12:31 PM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-105) | 50.5 (-115) | Kansas Jayhawks -205 · Arizona State Sun Devils +170 |
| Sep 16 1:31 PM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-110) | Kansas Jayhawks -225 · Arizona State Sun Devils +185 |
| Sep 16 4:32 PM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-110) | Kansas Jayhawks -205 · Arizona State Sun Devils +170 |
| Sep 17 2:02 PM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-110) | Kansas Jayhawks -205 · Arizona State Sun Devils +170 |
| Sep 18 7:00 AM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-110) | Kansas Jayhawks -205 · Arizona State Sun Devils +170 |
| Sep 18 7:30 AM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-110) | Kansas Jayhawks -218 · Arizona State Sun Devils +180 |
| Sep 18 9:31 AM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-110) | Kansas Jayhawks -205 · Arizona State Sun Devils +170 |
| Sep 19 12:32 AM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-110) | Kansas Jayhawks -218 · Arizona State Sun Devils +180 |
| Sep 19 5:00 AM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-110) | Kansas Jayhawks -205 · Arizona State Sun Devils +170 |
| Sep 19 8:00 AM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-110) | Kansas Jayhawks -218 · Arizona State Sun Devils +180 |
| Sep 19 11:00 AM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-108) | 50.5 (-115) | Kansas Jayhawks -218 · Arizona State Sun Devils +180 |
| CLOSESep 19 11:38 AM | Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-108) | 51.5 (-102) | Kansas Jayhawks -218 · Arizona State Sun Devils +180 |
The read
Wembley hosts a Big 12 opener, with Kansas designated the home team and both programs navigating an unfamiliar London stage.
I like Arizona State’s passing game against the particular weakness Kansas has shown. Through two games, Kansas has allowed a 30.5% offensive success rate, but ranks 88th in explosiveness allowed. That’s a defense capable of stopping drives while still surrendering damaging plays when opponents break through. Reed Harris, with 15 catches for 326 yards and four touchdowns, gives Cutter Boley a productive receiver to challenge that vulnerability.
Boley’s performance against Texas A&M matters more to me than his opening-game touchdown total. He completed 21 of 34 passes for 254 yards against an opponent ranked sixth in SP+. Isaiah Marshall went 13 of 30 for 168 yards against Missouri, ranked 21st. Both threw two interceptions. My judgment is that Arizona State has shown the more convincing passing foundation against stronger opposition, even with the mistakes that still need correcting.
Those mistakes deserve their full weight. Arizona State’s loss included two interceptions returned for touchdowns, a muffed punt and a fumble. Dillingham acknowledged a poor play call and a miscommunication. That makes ball security a serious obstacle, but it also means the 48–20 result cannot be treated as a straightforward measure of defensive performance. Kansas’s 21 points against Missouri likewise included a blocked-field-goal return touchdown; its offense did less scoring than the final total suggests.
The opponent-adjusted ratings support the matchup case: SP+ rates Arizona State 10.3 and Kansas 4.7, and FPI also places Arizona State higher. I’m not converting those ratings into a predicted margin. They reinforce my view that Arizona State has enough overall ability to challenge Kansas beyond merely hanging around.
Kansas’s front is the strongest objection. Its 27.1% stuff rate gives it a credible way to disrupt Arizona State’s rushing game, and the staff’s stated emphasis on tighter coverage could make Boley’s job harder. Kansas also has the better scoring-opportunity finishing average, 4.4 points to Arizona State’s 4.0. Winning ordinary downs and finishing drives could produce separation.
I’m backing Arizona State’s passing matchup and broader team strength while respecting those obstacles. The turnover problems and Kansas’s disruptive front make +5.5 the ticket I want over an outright-win bet.
Injuries noted
Arizona State Sun Devils: Wade Helton (out) — Leg injury; listed out and expected to miss an extended period.; Harry Hassmann (out) — Undisclosed injury; listed out for Kansas.; Omarion Miller (probable) — Undisclosed injury; listed likely to play.; Derek Eusebio (questionable) — Undisclosed injury; availability listed unclear.; Zyrus Fiaseu (out for season) — Knee injury; listed as projected to miss the remainder of the season.
Kansas Jayhawks: Cole Ballard (out) — Shoulder; listed out for Arizona State.; Carson Bruhn (out) — Undisclosed injury; listed out.; Cam Pickett (probable) — Undisclosed injury; listed probable.; Jaylen Mason (out) — Undisclosed injury; listed out/unlikely to dress.; Carter Moses (questionable) — Undisclosed injury; availability listed uncertain.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Cutter Boley is ASU's confirmed starter
10.51 Y/ACutter Boley is ASU's confirmed starting quarterback. Kenny Dillingham named Boley the starting quarterback before the opener, and Arizona State's current game-week notes continue to identify him as the starter. 2026 line: 641 passing yards, 68.9% completions, 10.51 yards per attempt, 8-2 TD-INT over 2 games.
Isaiah Marshall is KU's confirmed starter
8.45 Y/AIsaiah Marshall is KU's confirmed starting quarterback. Kansas identified Marshall as its starter after he won the fall-camp competition; he started the first two games. Backup Cole Ballard is out. 2026 line: 414 passing yards, 55.1% completions, 8.45 yards per attempt, 4-2 TD-INT over 2 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
ASU @ KU carries a 41.5 market total
41.5ASU @ KU's 41.5 DraftKings total sits 14 points below the 55.5 slate median across 45 posted games, placing its aggregate scoring expectation well below the board's middle. No team-level or market-movement context is supplied to explain what would alter that setup.
ASU is scoring +9 points per game
9 PPGASU is at 45 points per game over 2 games; KU is at 36 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
MISMATCH
ASU's passing attack against KU's — 343 pass yards a game to 255
343 VS 255The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pass ypg — ASU 343, KU 255, over 2 and 2 game samples.
COVERAGE
ASU's secondary gives up 77 fewer passing yards per game
77 YPGASU is at 124.5 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; KU is at 201.5 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.
REPLACEMENT
MyKeil Gardner (DL) is out for the season for ASU
OUT FOR SEASONDefensive lineman listed out for the season with an Achilles injury. Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks Matchup and Injury Report (2026-09-19)
Wade Helton (OL) is out for the season for ASU
OUT FOR SEASONStarting right guard suffered a lower-leg injury against Texas A&M. Dillingham said he would miss a few weeks but that it was not season-ending. ASU Sun Devils' Injury Report Features Big Offensive Names Before Kansas (2026-09-17) Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks Matchup and Injury Report (2026-09-19) Arizona State Football Team Preview (2026-09-17)
Zyrus Fiaseu (LB) is out for the season for ASU
OUT FOR SEASONLinebacker listed out for the season with a knee injury. Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks Matchup and Injury Report (2026-09-19) Arizona State Football Team Preview (2026-09-17)
Nigel Pringle (DB) is out for the season for ASU
OUT FOR SEASONCornerback reported out for the season with an undisclosed preseason injury. Arizona State Football Team Preview (2026-09-17)
Justin Thurman (RB) is out for the season for KU
OUT FOR SEASONRunning back listed out for the season with an undisclosed condition. Kansas’ Crowded Injury Report Features Several Key Jayhawks Ahead of Arizona State Game (2026-09-17) Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks Matchup and Injury Report (2026-09-19)
Carson Bruhn (TE) is out for KU
OUTStarting tight end; undisclosed condition and downgraded to out. Kansas’ Crowded Injury Report Features Several Key Jayhawks Ahead of Arizona State Game (2026-09-17) Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks Matchup and Injury Report (2026-09-19)
Jaylen Mason (QB) is out for KU
OUTFreshman quarterback listed out with an undisclosed condition. Kansas’ Crowded Injury Report Features Several Key Jayhawks Ahead of Arizona State Game (2026-09-17) Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks Matchup and Injury Report (2026-09-19)
Tre'von McAlpine (DT) is out for KU
OUTDefensive tackle listed out with an undisclosed condition. Kansas’ Crowded Injury Report Features Several Key Jayhawks Ahead of Arizona State Game (2026-09-17) Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks Matchup and Injury Report (2026-09-19)
Grady Seyfert (DT) is out for KU
OUTDefensive lineman listed out with an undisclosed condition. Kansas’ Crowded Injury Report Features Several Key Jayhawks Ahead of Arizona State Game (2026-09-17) Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks Matchup and Injury Report (2026-09-19)
Kory Amachree (RB) is out for KU
OUTRunning back listed out indefinitely with an undisclosed condition. Kansas’ Crowded Injury Report Features Several Key Jayhawks Ahead of Arizona State Game (2026-09-17) Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks Matchup and Injury Report (2026-09-19)
Brent Helton (OL) is out for ASU
OUTOffensive lineman listed out with an undisclosed condition. ASU Sun Devils' Injury Report Features Big Offensive Names Before Kansas (2026-09-17) Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks Matchup and Injury Report (2026-09-19)
Marques Uini (OL) is out for ASU
OUTOffensive lineman listed out with an undisclosed condition. ASU Sun Devils' Injury Report Features Big Offensive Names Before Kansas (2026-09-17) Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks Matchup and Injury Report (2026-09-19)
Jalen Williams (DB) is out for ASU
OUTDefensive back listed out with an undisclosed condition. ASU Sun Devils' Injury Report Features Big Offensive Names Before Kansas (2026-09-17) Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks Matchup and Injury Report (2026-09-19)
Maurice Williams (S) is out for ASU
OUTSafety listed out with an undisclosed condition. ASU Sun Devils' Injury Report Features Big Offensive Names Before Kansas (2026-09-17) Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks Matchup and Injury Report (2026-09-19)
Harry Hassmann (WR) is out for ASU
OUTWide receiver downgraded to out; current reporting identifies a knee condition. ASU Sun Devils' Injury Report Features Big Offensive Names Before Kansas (2026-09-17) Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks Matchup and Injury Report (2026-09-19)
Cole Ballard (QB) is out for KU
OUTBackup quarterback; injured his shoulder against Missouri and was downgraded to out for Arizona State. Kansas’ Crowded Injury Report Features Several Key Jayhawks Ahead of Arizona State Game (2026-09-17) Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks Matchup and Injury Report (2026-09-19)
SITUATIONAL
ASU gives away 32.5 fewer penalty yards per game
32.5 YDSASU is at 42 penalty yards per game over 2 games; KU is at 74.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 19, 2026 at 7:42 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, betmgm, betrivers, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKCUTTER BOLEYPASSING YARDS OVER 231.5
I’m backing Boley to clear 231.5 passing yards. He has thrown for 641 yards through two games, including 254 against a Texas A&M defense ranked sixth in SP+. That performance matters because it showed he can produce through the air when the opponent is capable of creating pressure and forcing mistakes.
Kansas has been effective at ending ordinary plays, but its vulnerability to explosiveness creates the matchup I want for this over. Reed Harris has already produced 326 receiving yards, while Omarion Miller’s 17 catches give Boley another established option underneath. Kansas’s disruptive front could also discourage Arizona State from leaning too heavily on the run.
The interceptions are a real concern for Arizona State’s chances of finishing drives, but they do not necessarily suppress passing volume or yardage. With Boley averaging more than 10 yards per attempt through two games, he does not need another 300-yard performance to beat this number.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery NCAAF game this dayThe NCAAF recordToday's NCAAF picksEvery sport this day