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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 31 · 3:30 PM

Kansas Jayhawks at TCU Horned Frogs

O/U 45.5 · SPREAD TCU Horned Frogs -6.5 · Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX

GARY'S PICK
Kansas +6.5
NCAAF@ TCU· -114

Kansas
+6.5

-114 · CASHED · KU 16 · TCU 22

TCU

The pick & result

Published pick
Kansas Jayhawks +6.5 -114
Published odds
-114
Result
Won
Final score
16-22

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 43 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 25 1:31 PM
Close
Sat 3:27 PM
Move
SPREADTCU Horned Frogs -4.5 (-108)TCU Horned Frogs -6 (-110)+1½
TOTAL48.5 (-108)45.5 (-110)−3
MONEYLINETCU Horned Frogs -190TCU Horned Frogs -235−45
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 25 1:31 PMTCU Horned Frogs -4.5 (-108)48.5 (-108)TCU Horned Frogs -190 · Kansas Jayhawks +160
Oct 25 2:31 PMTCU Horned Frogs -4.5 (-110)49.5 (-105)TCU Horned Frogs -190 · Kansas Jayhawks +160
Oct 25 3:31 PMTCU Horned Frogs -4.5 (-110)47.5 (-105)TCU Horned Frogs -190 · Kansas Jayhawks +160
Oct 25 4:31 PMTCU Horned Frogs -5.5 (-110)47.5 (-108)TCU Horned Frogs -200 · Kansas Jayhawks +165
Oct 25 5:31 PMTCU Horned Frogs -5.5 (-110)47.5 (-108)TCU Horned Frogs -210 · Kansas Jayhawks +165
Oct 25 9:31 PMTCU Horned Frogs -5.5 (-110)47.5 (-108)TCU Horned Frogs -210 · Kansas Jayhawks +170
Oct 25 11:32 PMTCU Horned Frogs -5.5 (-110)47.5 (-105)TCU Horned Frogs -210 · Kansas Jayhawks +165
Oct 26 6:00 AMTCU Horned Frogs -5.5 (-110)47.5 (-108)TCU Horned Frogs -210 · Kansas Jayhawks +170
Oct 26 8:31 AMTCU Horned Frogs -5.5 (-108)47.5 (-110)TCU Horned Frogs -210 · Kansas Jayhawks +170
Oct 26 9:31 AMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-108)47.5 (-112)TCU Horned Frogs -210 · Kansas Jayhawks +175
Oct 26 10:31 AMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-110)47.5 (-112)TCU Horned Frogs -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +185
Oct 26 11:32 AMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-110)47.5 (-112)TCU Horned Frogs -220 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Oct 26 1:32 PMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-110)47.5 (-112)TCU Horned Frogs -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +185
Oct 26 3:33 PMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-110)47.5 (-105)TCU Horned Frogs -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +185
Oct 26 4:33 PMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-110)46.5 (-112)TCU Horned Frogs -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +188
Oct 26 5:33 PMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-110)46.5 (-115)TCU Horned Frogs -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +188
Oct 27 6:00 AMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-110)46.5 (-115)TCU Horned Frogs -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +185
Oct 27 3:32 PMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-110)47.5 (-108)TCU Horned Frogs -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +188
Oct 27 4:32 PMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-110)46.5 (-115)TCU Horned Frogs -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +185
Oct 27 8:05 PMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-110)46.5 (-115)TCU Horned Frogs -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +188
Oct 28 1:18 PMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-110)46.5 (-112)TCU Horned Frogs -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +185
Oct 28 2:18 PMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-110)46.5 (-112)TCU Horned Frogs -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +188
Thu 10:01 AMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-108)46.5 (-108)TCU Horned Frogs -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +185
Thu 10:23 AMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-108)45.5 (-110)TCU Horned Frogs -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +185
Thu 1:34 PMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-108)46.5 (-108)TCU Horned Frogs -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +185
Thu 4:36 PMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-108)45.5 (-110)TCU Horned Frogs -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +185
Thu 5:06 PMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-108)45.5 (-110)TCU Horned Frogs -220 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Thu 5:51 PMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-108)45.5 (-108)TCU Horned Frogs -220 · Kansas Jayhawks +185
Thu 6:06 PMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-108)45.5 (-110)TCU Horned Frogs -220 · Kansas Jayhawks +180
Thu 6:36 PMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-110)45.5 (-110)TCU Horned Frogs -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +185
Thu 10:07 PMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-110)45.5 (-108)TCU Horned Frogs -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +185
Thu 10:37 PMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-110)45.5 (-108)TCU Horned Frogs -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +188
Thu 11:07 PMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-110)45.5 (-108)TCU Horned Frogs -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +185
Fri 12:37 AMTCU Horned Frogs -6.5 (-108)45.5 (-108)TCU Horned Frogs -225 · Kansas Jayhawks +185
Fri 6:00 AMTCU Horned Frogs -6.5 (-108)45.5 (-108)TCU Horned Frogs -235 · Kansas Jayhawks +190
Fri 10:01 AMTCU Horned Frogs -6.5 (-108)45.5 (-108)TCU Horned Frogs -235 · Kansas Jayhawks +195
Fri 10:31 AMTCU Horned Frogs -6.5 (-112)45.5 (-108)TCU Horned Frogs -235 · Kansas Jayhawks +195
Fri 3:32 PMTCU Horned Frogs -6.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)TCU Horned Frogs -235 · Kansas Jayhawks +190
Sat 8:31 AMTCU Horned Frogs -6.5 (-108)45.5 (-105)TCU Horned Frogs -235 · Kansas Jayhawks +190
Sat 9:00 AMTCU Horned Frogs -6.5 (-108)45.5 (-108)TCU Horned Frogs -235 · Kansas Jayhawks +190
Sat 9:51 AMTCU Horned Frogs -6.5 (-110)45.5 (-110)TCU Horned Frogs -235 · Kansas Jayhawks +190
Sat 10:01 AMTCU Horned Frogs -6.5 (-110)45.5 (-110)TCU Horned Frogs -235 · Kansas Jayhawks +190
Sat 10:31 AMTCU Horned Frogs -6.5 (-108)45.5 (-110)TCU Horned Frogs -235 · Kansas Jayhawks +190
CLOSESat 3:27 PMTCU Horned Frogs -6 (-110)45.5 (-110)TCU Horned Frogs -235 · Kansas Jayhawks +190

The read

Two 3-4 teams, each three wins from bowl eligibility, meet on a calm, overcast Halloween afternoon in Fort Worth. TCU is laying 6.5, and I don't trust this offense to cover it.

Against FBS teams, the Horned Frogs average 16.8 points and have won by more than 6.5 just twice in six tries. All four of their losses came by eight or fewer. The yards are there, but the finishing isn't: 9 touchdowns on 20 red-zone trips against FBS teams, 9 giveaways in the last four games, and Nate McCashland is 7-of-10 on field goals. Even Sonny Dykes says, "We've been our own worst enemy this year."

The run game is gone, too. TCU managed 365 yards on 107 carries over its last four games. Now Jeremy Payne is out, Landon Walker is questionable and Joe Pitchford is Exempt. That hides Kansas's worst weakness, a run defense that gave up 362 yards at K-State and 305 at Utah. Jaden Craig will throw it 40-plus times behind a line that has allowed 15 sacks in four games and just lost its position coach.

The quarterbacks who beat TCU at home ran on it. West Virginia's Michael Hawkins Jr. ran for 87 yards, and BYU's Bear Bachmeier ran for 66 and scored twice. Isaiah Marshall is that kind of quarterback: 117 rushing yards at K-State, 110 against Middle Tennessee, and the game-winning run against Baylor. Baylor is the common opponent here. TCU ran 26 times for 64 yards at Baylor. Kansas ran 51 times for 240 against the Bears and held the ball for 36:41.

The risks are real. Kansas lost by 11 and 17 on the road. Its secondary is missing Syeed Gibbs and Mason Ellis, with Elijah Cannon questionable. Craig threw for 372 and 310 yards in two of his last four games.

And everything rides on Marshall, a questionable game-time decision. If Marshall sits, Cole Ballard has thrown eight passes all season and is just back from a shoulder injury. Check the 1 p.m. CT report. With Marshall, I'll take the points. Without Marshall, I'd pass.

Injuries noted

Kansas Jayhawks: Syeed Gibbs (out) — CB #2 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Jalen Dupree (out) — RB #4 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Isaiah Marshall (questionable) — QB #8 listed Questionable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Elijah Cannon (questionable) — CB #10 listed Questionable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Jaden Harris (questionable) — S #12 listed Questionable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Mason Ellis (out) — S #23 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Jack Utz (out) — TE #35 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Kasen Carpenter (out) — OL #51 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Griffin Baker (out) — WR #80 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report

TCU Horned Frogs: Julius Simms (out) — S #7 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Ryan Yaites (probable) — S #13 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Terry Shelton (out) — WR #15 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Devondre McGee (out) — CB #17 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Fletcher Fierro (out) — WR #22 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Jeremy Payne (out) — RB #26 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Michael Teason Jr. (out) — LB #27 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Landon Walker (questionable) — RB #27 listed Questionable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Cade Bennett (out) — OL #60 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Kari Ashley (probable) — TE #81 listed Probable on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Keagan Cunningham (out) — WR #83 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report; Cooper Reid (out) — WR #84 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Jaden Craig is TCU's projected starter

    8.59 Y/A

    Jaden Craig is TCU's projected starting quarterback. Current-week previews (KUsports Oct 30, Yahoo/Roundtable Oct 30 and Oct 28) name Jaden Craig as TCU's quarterback. He has 2,066 passing yards, 11 TDs and 6 INTs this season, including 372 yards against West Virginia in TCU's last game. Leipold said of Craig: 'The quarterback continues to play better and better each and every week.' He does not appear on TCU's availability report in the opened sources. No injury from the last game or limited practice this week was found. No opened source attributed to TCU (Sonny Dykes, a team release or a depth chart) confirms him as this week's starter, because the TCU athletics game-notes page would not load. He is therefore listed as projected, not confirmed. 2026 line: 2062 passing yards, 67.5% completions, 8.59 yards per attempt, 11-6 TD-INT over 7 games.

TRENCHES

  • KU: 208 rushing yards per game to TCU's 111.4

    96.6 YPG

    Kansas runs for 208 a game against TCU's 111.4, so the Jayhawks are the team built to grind. Kansas is up from 168.3 last season and TCU is down from 131.4, which widens the gap. Seven games each gives this some weight. Kansas will try to run the ball and keep TCU's offense off the field, and how well that works decides the tempo.

  • TCU: 105.4 rushing yards allowed per game to KU's 166.9

    61.4 YPG

    TCU allows 105.4 rushing yards a game over 7 games, and Kansas gives up 166.9. TCU's front is the sturdier group, while Kansas has been run on most weeks. TCU's ground game should find room at home, and Kansas may have to throw more than it wants. Teams that can run on a soft front tend to control tempo, which matters for both the side and the total.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • TCU: 13.9 points allowed per game to KU's 24

    10.1 PPG

    KU is at 24 points allowed per game over 7 games; TCU is at 13.9 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 30. Last season KU was at 26.8 over 12 games and TCU at 25.3 over 13 games.

  • KU @ TCU carries a 45.5 market total

    45.5

    At 45.5, this sits 6 points under the 51.5 slate median across 33 games, so the market expects a game short on scoring. That assumes neither offense breaks loose for long stretches. If either team starts hitting big plays early, the low expectation can give way quickly.

MISMATCH

  • KU: 208 rush yards a game to TCU's 111.4

    208 VS 111.4

    Kansas is running for 208 yards a game over seven games, a jump from 168.3 last season, while TCU has fallen to 111.4 from 131.4. Kansas can lean on the ground and keep TCU's offense on the sideline. TCU has to hide a run game that isn't carrying its share, which puts more on its passing. Over seven games both moves look real, so lean on which team can stay on schedule when sizing up this one.

REPLACEMENT

  • Syeed Gibbs (CB) is out for KU

    OUT

    CB #2 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Jalen Dupree (RB) is out for KU

    OUT

    RB #4 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Mason Ellis (S) is out for KU

    OUT

    S #23 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Jack Utz (TE) is out for KU

    OUT

    TE #35 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Kasen Carpenter (OL) is out for KU

    OUT

    OL #51 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Griffin Baker (WR) is out for KU

    OUT

    WR #80 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Julius Simms (S) is out for TCU

    OUT

    S #7 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Terry Shelton (WR) is out for TCU

    OUT

    WR #15 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Devondre McGee (CB) is out for TCU

    OUT

    CB #17 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Fletcher Fierro (WR) is out for TCU

    OUT

    WR #22 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Jeremy Payne (RB) is out for TCU

    OUT

    RB #26 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Michael Teason Jr. (LB) is out for TCU

    OUT

    LB #27 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Cade Bennett (OL) is out for TCU

    OUT

    OL #60 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Keagan Cunningham (WR) is out for TCU

    OUT

    WR #83 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

  • Cooper Reid (WR) is out for TCU

    OUT

    WR #84 listed Out on the Big 12 Update 2 report Big 12 availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 21:00:00 CT) (2026-10-30)

SITUATIONAL

  • TCU: 294.6 team passing yards per game to KU's 238.1

    56.4 YPG

    TCU is throwing for 294.6 a game, almost identical to last season's 290.1, so the air attack is a stable identity. Kansas is up a bit to 238.1 from 222.3. TCU at home is the more dangerous passing team, and its number has two seasons of backing, which makes it more trustworthy than most seven-game figures.

  • KU: 3.71 fourth-down attempts per game to TCU's 2

    1.71 ATT/G

    KU is at 3.71 fourth-down attempts per game over 7 games; TCU is at 2 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 30. Last season KU was at 2.33 over 12 games and TCU at 1.92 over 13 games.

TEAM RECORD

  • Big 12 game: KU 1-3, TCU 1-3 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the Big 12. KU is 1-3 against it, TCU is 1-3. 2026 standings through 2026-10-31.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 31, 2026 at 8:16 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betrivers, draftkings, betmgm, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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