Halloween night in Boise: No. 20 Boise State unveils its Kellen Moore statue at halftime and goes for the program's 300th FBS win, while Texas State makes its first trip to Albertsons Stadium. The Broncos are laying 10.5, and I'll lay it. Start with the common opponent. Both teams hosted Utah State. Boise won 37-18, with its offense scoring 30 and a pick-six adding the rest. Texas State won 20-17, and 7 of those points came on Jaylen Jenkins' 100-yard kickoff return. The Bobcats' offense managed 13 and ran 27 times for 106 yards. Boise wins by margin against FBS teams: 18, 25, 19, 7 and 21. Four of the five cleared this number, and the Broncos have scored at least 27 in every game, including the loss at Oregon. Maddux Madsen has thrown 0 interceptions in 189 attempts, and Boise has 3 giveaways all year. Texas State's defense has 3 sacks in six FBS games and no takeaways in its last three. There are no short fields coming. The Bobcats' engine is the run game, and it isn't fully healthy. Torrance Burgess Jr. is probable with an undisclosed injury after dropping from 24 carries for 224 yards to 10 for 51 last week, and Davian Jackson hasn't played since Oct 3. Texas State has scored 2 touchdowns on 7 red-zone trips against San Diego State and Utah State and is 7-of-14 on field goals as a team. Boise's Canaan Moore is 10-of-11, and Boise's defense has allowed 23 conversions on 79 third downs. Texas State is also 0-2 on the road, losing 59-7 at Texas and 31-29 at San Diego State. The risk is Boise's pace. The Broncos have held the ball 36:46 or longer in four games, and they were tied 10-10 at Washington State entering the fourth quarter. Fewer possessions mean smaller margins. Sire Gaines (walking boot) and Ben Ford are questionable, though Dylan Riley has carried the load with 963 yards on 140 carries. Brad Jackson's legs (181 rushing yards against Colorado State) are the backdoor threat, and Utah State ran for 201 against Boise. Still, I want the steadier offense against a defense that doesn't take the ball away. Boise -10.5, one unit, and I wouldn't chase it higher.
Halloween night in Boise: No. 20 Boise State unveils its Kellen Moore statue at halftime and goes for the program's 300th FBS win, while Texas State makes its first trip to Albertsons Stadium. The Broncos are laying 10.5, and I'll lay it.
Start with the common opponent. Both teams hosted Utah State. Boise won 37-18, with its offense scoring 30 and a pick-six adding the rest. Texas State won 20-17, and 7 of those points came on Jaylen Jenkins' 100-yard kickoff return. The Bobcats' offense managed 13 and ran 27 times for 106 yards.
Boise wins by margin against FBS teams: 18, 25, 19, 7 and 21. Four of the five cleared this number, and the Broncos have scored at least 27 in every game, including the loss at Oregon. Maddux Madsen has thrown 0 interceptions in 189 attempts, and Boise has 3 giveaways all year. Texas State's defense has 3 sacks in six FBS games and no takeaways in its last three. There are no short fields coming.
The Bobcats' engine is the run game, and it isn't fully healthy. Torrance Burgess Jr. is probable with an undisclosed injury after dropping from 24 carries for 224 yards to 10 for 51 last week, and Davian Jackson hasn't played since Oct 3. Texas State has scored 2 touchdowns on 7 red-zone trips against San Diego State and Utah State and is 7-of-14 on field goals as a team. Boise's Canaan Moore is 10-of-11, and Boise's defense has allowed 23 conversions on 79 third downs. Texas State is also 0-2 on the road, losing 59-7 at Texas and 31-29 at San Diego State.
The risk is Boise's pace. The Broncos have held the ball 36:46 or longer in four games, and they were tied 10-10 at Washington State entering the fourth quarter. Fewer possessions mean smaller margins. Sire Gaines (walking boot) and Ben Ford are questionable, though Dylan Riley has carried the load with 963 yards on 140 carries. Brad Jackson's legs (181 rushing yards against Colorado State) are the backdoor threat, and Utah State ran for 201 against Boise.
Still, I want the steadier offense against a defense that doesn't take the ball away. Boise -10.5, one unit, and I wouldn't chase it higher.
Boise State -10.5