South Dakota Coyotes at Boise State Broncos
O/U 59.5 · SPREAD Boise State Broncos -13.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- South Dakota Coyotes +28.5 -112
- Published odds
- -112
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 24-38
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 20 moves| Market | Opened Sep 19 11:19 AM | Close Sep 19 9:57 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Boise State Broncos -28 (-108) | Boise State Broncos -28.5 (-108) | +½ |
| TOTAL | 58.5 (-120) | 60.5 (-120) | +2 |
| MONEYLINE | Boise State Broncos -3000 | Boise State Broncos -3000 | Holds |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 19 11:19 AM | Boise State Broncos -28 (-108) | 58.5 (-120) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1650 |
| Sep 19 11:40 AM | Boise State Broncos -28 (-108) | 59.5 (-102) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1700 |
| Sep 19 11:50 AM | Boise State Broncos -28 (-108) | 59.5 (-105) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1700 |
| Sep 19 12:11 PM | Boise State Broncos -28 (-108) | 59.5 (-108) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1700 |
| Sep 19 12:24 PM | Boise State Broncos -28 (-110) | 59.5 (-108) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1700 |
| Sep 19 12:37 PM | Boise State Broncos -28 (-110) | 59.5 (-108) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1700 |
| Sep 19 2:08 PM | Boise State Broncos -28 (-112) | 59.5 (-108) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1750 |
| Sep 19 2:45 PM | Boise State Broncos -28 (-110) | 59.5 (-110) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1800 |
| Sep 19 3:01 PM | Boise State Broncos -28 (-110) | 60.5 (-108) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1700 |
| Sep 19 4:52 PM | Boise State Broncos -28 (-112) | 60.5 (-110) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1700 |
| Sep 19 5:00 PM | Boise State Broncos -27.5 (-125) | 60.5 (-110) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1550 |
| Sep 19 5:17 PM | Boise State Broncos -28 (-112) | 60.5 (-110) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1600 |
| Sep 19 6:45 PM | Boise State Broncos -28 (-105) | 60.5 (-110) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1650 |
| Sep 19 8:00 PM | Boise State Broncos -28 (-105) | 60.5 (-110) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1550 |
| Sep 19 8:36 PM | Boise State Broncos -28 (-105) | 61.5 (-105) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1600 |
| Sep 19 8:38 PM | Boise State Broncos -28 (-105) | 61.5 (-105) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1600 |
| Sep 19 8:46 PM | Boise State Broncos -28 (-105) | 61.5 (-105) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1600 |
| Sep 19 9:06 PM | Boise State Broncos -27.5 (-115) | 60.5 (-115) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1550 |
| Sep 19 9:30 PM | Boise State Broncos -28 (-108) | 61.5 (-105) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1650 |
| Sep 19 9:36 PM | Boise State Broncos -28 (-112) | 61.5 (-105) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1700 |
| CLOSESep 19 9:57 PM | Boise State Broncos -28.5 (-108) | 60.5 (-120) | Boise State Broncos -3000 · South Dakota Coyotes +1750 |
The read
South Dakota brings an unbeaten start into a night game at Boise. The Broncos return home after beating Memphis, with their offense finding traction and their defense still working to contain damaging plays.
I’m taking the points because South Dakota has offensive weapons capable of testing Boise’s clearest vulnerability. Austyn Modrzewski has thrown for 727 yards and 11 touchdowns against one interception through three games. Tennel Bryant’s long gains and Brayden White’s 13 catches and four touchdowns give that production substance beyond the quarterback’s stat line. Boise has allowed 762 passing yards across two games and ranks 137th of 138 in explosiveness allowed—the damage opponents generate on successful plays. My read is that South Dakota can exploit enough of those openings to keep the spread in reach.
The strongest objection is Boise’s running game. Dylan Riley rushed for 206 yards against Memphis, and sustained rushing success could leave South Dakota struggling to get its defense off the field. Boise also stopped 29.8% of opposing carries at or behind the line. If that disrupts Charles Pierre Jr., Modrzewski could face a much tougher assignment than his opening opponents presented. Boise’s schedule has included Oregon and Memphis, so I’m not treating the quarterbacks’ raw numbers as an equal comparison.
Still, Boise’s second-half shutout against Memphis does not erase its earlier defensive breakdowns. South Dakota’s passing production gives me a football reason to take the cushion without needing an upset or a repeat special-teams swing. I expect Boise’s rushing attack to present serious problems, but I trust the Coyotes’ scoring threats enough to back +28.5.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Austyn Modrzewski is SDAK's confirmed starter
11.02 Y/AAustyn Modrzewski is SDAK's confirmed starting quarterback. Listed first at quarterback on South Dakota's current-week official game-notes depth chart. The school's September 12 report also describes his work through all three games ahead of the Boise State trip. 2026 line: 727 passing yards, 69.7% completions, 11.02 yards per attempt, 11-1 TD-INT over 3 games.
Maddux Madsen is BOIS's confirmed starter
7.05 Y/AMaddux Madsen is BOIS's confirmed starting quarterback. Listed first at quarterback on Boise State's current-week official game-notes depth chart; current-week coverage also identifies him as the quarterback facing South Dakota. 2026 line: 402 passing yards, 56.1% completions, 7.05 yards per attempt, 4-0 TD-INT over 2 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
SDAK is scoring +13.5 points per game
13.5 PPGSDAK is at 46 points per game over 3 games; BOIS is at 32.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
BOIS holds the ball 6:13 longer per game
6:13 TOPSDAK is at 29:12 time of possession per game over 3 games; BOIS is at 35:25 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
MISMATCH
BOIS's clock control — 35:25 of possession a game to SDAK's 29:12
35:25 VS 29:12The widest gap on this matchup's tape: possession — SDAK 29:12, BOIS 35:25, over 3 and 2 game samples.
COVERAGE
SDAK's secondary gives up 181.7 fewer passing yards per game
181.7 YPGSDAK is at 199.3 passing yards allowed per game over 3 games; BOIS is at 381 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.
BOIS allows a third-down conversion rate 15 percentage points lower
15 PPSDAK is at 40% third downs allowed over 3 games; BOIS is at 25% over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.
SITUATIONAL
BOIS goes for it 2.67 more times per game on fourth down
2.67 ATT/GSDAK is at 0.33 fourth-down attempts per game over 3 games; BOIS is at 3 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
SDAK's third-down conversion rate is 13.8 percentage points higher
13.8 PPSDAK is at 48.3% third-down conversion rate over 3 games; BOIS is at 34.5% over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 19, 2026 at 7:42 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betrivers, betmgm.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
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