Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan Broncos

Injuries noted

Boise State Broncos: Sire Gaines (questionable) — Gaines sustained an apparent left hand or wrist injury against South Dakota. Spencer Danielson said Thursday that Gaines had practiced but Boise State was still working through his status.

Western Michigan Broncos: Aveion Chenault (questionable) — Current reporting says Western Michigan could be without its leading receiver; the updated depth chart continued to list Chenault as a starting receiver.; Micah Davis (questionable) — Current reporting says Western Michigan could be without its starting safety; he was omitted from Thursday's updated depth chart, with Daeh McCullough listed in his place.

QUARTERBACK

• Maddux Madsen is BOIS's confirmed starter

  6.93 Y/A

  Maddux Madsen is BOIS's confirmed starting quarterback. Western Michigan's official current-week preview identifies Madsen as Boise State's third-year starting quarterback. 2026 line: 610 passing yards, 61.4% completions, 6.93 yards per attempt, 6-0 TD-INT over 3 games.

• Broc Lowry is WMU's projected starter

  6.84 Y/A

  Broc Lowry is WMU's projected starting quarterback. The MAC's current-week preview identifies Lowry as Western Michigan's quarterback and describes his dual-threat role, but does not explicitly announce the game-day starter. 2026 line: 417 passing yards, 70.5% completions, 6.84 yards per attempt, 4-0 TD-INT over 3 games.

TRENCHES

• BOIS: 96.7 rushing yards allowed per game to WMU's 157.7

  61 YPG

  Boise State has allowed 96.7 rushing yards a game over 3 games, and Western Michigan has given up 157.7. Three games is a small sample to judge either front, and the sheet doesn't show who they faced. Western Michigan's run defense is the leakier one, so Boise State's rushing attack is the side to look at for props and for how the game might flow.

PACE & SCRIPT

• WMU: 16 points allowed per game to BOIS's 26

  10 PPG

  Western Michigan has kept opponents to 16 a game through three games, close to the 17.4 it allowed last season, so this defense looks like the real thing. Boise's 26 allowed is a bit worse than its 24.1 from last season. The home defense has a track record behind it, which makes a lower-scoring game on Western Michigan's terms a reasonable way to frame this one.

MISMATCH

• BOIS: 258.3 rush yards a game to WMU's 165.7

  258.3 VS 165.7

  Boise State is running for 258.3 yards a game over 3 games, up from 179.1 last season. Western Michigan is at 165.7, below its 204.2 from a year ago. Both numbers are three-game samples moving in opposite directions from last season, so some pull back toward those marks is likely. Boise State wants to run on the road and control the game, and Western Michigan needs its ground game closer to last season's level to trade possessions.

COVERAGE

• WMU: 188 passing yards allowed per game to BOIS's 335

  147 YPG

  Western Michigan has allowed 188 passing yards a game over 3 games, while Boise State has given up 335. Boise State's pass defense has been exposed so far, and the sheet doesn't say how many passes it faced. Three games is a small sample, but it suggests Western Michigan's best path in this game is through the air.

• BOIS: 25% third downs allowed to WMU's 37.5%

  12.5 PP

  Boise State is holding opponents to 25% on third down across three games, with Western Michigan at 37.5%. Only one in four third downs converted is an extreme number and probably comes down some, since three games is a small sample. On the road, Boise's defense still looks the better bet to get off the field, which helps its offense see more possessions.

SITUATIONAL

• BOIS: 25 first downs per game to WMU's 19

  6 FD

  Boise State moves the chains more often, with 25 first downs a game against Western Michigan's 19. Western Michigan is almost exactly where it was last season at 18.9, and Boise has climbed from 22.1. Boise sustaining drives on the road will likely control possession and the clock. Three games makes Boise's rise less certain than Western Michigan's steady number.