Texas State Bobcats at Boise State Broncos

Injuries noted

Texas State Bobcats: Davian Jackson (questionable) — Freshman running back, undisclosed injury. Listed questionable per the Pac-12 availability report. Hasn't played since Week 5. Season: 64 carries, 315 yards, 5 rushing TDs.; Torrance Burgess Jr. (probable) — Running back, undisclosed injury. Listed probable per the Pac-12 availability report. 889 rushing yards and 5 TDs on 118 carries.

Boise State Broncos: Sire Gaines (questionable) — Running back. Listed questionable on Boise State's initial availability report. Wore a walking boot on his left leg after last week's 31-10 win at Washington State.; Ben Ford (questionable) — Wide receiver. Questionable on Boise State's initial availability report.; Austin Terry (questionable) — Tight end. Questionable on Boise State's initial availability report.; Carson Rasmussen (out) — Starting left guard. Will miss his fourth straight game.

QUARTERBACK

• Brad Jackson is TXST's projected starter

  8.29 Y/A

  Brad Jackson is TXST's projected starting quarterback. Game-week previews name sophomore Brad Jackson as Texas State's quarterback: 133-of-194 for 1,606 yards, 14 TDs and 5 INTs, plus 382 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs. Boise State coach Spencer Danielson said 'That quarterback is big-time.' No Texas State release, depth chart or Kinne statement I opened says he starts. None of the opened sources report an injury from the last game or limited practice this week. 2026 line: 1609 passing yards, 68.6% completions, 8.29 yards per attempt, 14-5 TD-INT over 7 games.

• Maddux Madsen is BOIS's projected starter

  7.65 Y/A

  Maddux Madsen is BOIS's projected starting quarterback. Game-week previews name Madsen as Boise State's quarterback, with 1,445 passing yards, 14 TDs and no interceptions in 189 attempts. He ran 4 times for 34 yards in last week's 31-10 win at Washington State. No team release, depth chart or coach statement I opened says he starts. Texas State's coach called Boise's quarterback 'the heart and soul of that team' without naming him, which is the opponent speaking. None of the opened sources report an injury from the last game or limited practice this week. 2026 line: 1445 passing yards, 65.6% completions, 7.65 yards per attempt, 14-0 TD-INT over 7 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

• TXST @ BOIS carries a 63.5 market total

  63.5

  Books expect points to come fast and often here, with 63.5 sitting 12 points above the 51.5 slate median across 33 games. That kind of number assumes both offenses finish drives with touchdowns instead of stalling. The way it breaks is red zone failure: a couple of drives ending in field goals or empty can leave this well short of what is priced.

• BOIS: 20.6 points allowed per game to TXST's 30

  9.4 PPG

  Boise State's defense has improved, allowing 20.6 a game after 24.1 last season, while Texas State gives up 30, close to last year's 29. Texas State's number looks stable, so its defense is who it is. Boise at home has the better unit, and the Texas State offense will need to score in volume against a defense that has held up through seven games.

TURNOVERS

• BOIS: 0.43 turnovers committed per game to TXST's 1.29

  0.86 TO

  Boise State has given the ball away just 0.43 times a game, far below last season's 1.5, while Texas State sits at 1.29, almost exactly its 1.23 from last year. Boise's number is unusually low and is the one more likely to rise. The edge in ball security favors Boise at home, but expect it to look more ordinary as the season goes on.

MISMATCH

• BOIS: 0.43 turnovers a game to TXST's 1.29

  0.43 VS 1.29

  Boise State has turned it over less than once every two games through 7 games, while Texas State sits at 1.29. Texas State is right on last season's 1.23, but Boise was at 1.5 a game last season, so its clean start is likely to drift back up. Turnovers are noisy over 7 games. Texas State can close the gap by forcing a mistake or two, so don't lean too hard on Boise staying this careful.

TEAM RECORD

• Pac-12 game: TXST 2-1, BOIS 3-0 in conference

  CONFERENCE

  These two share the Pac-12. TXST is 2-1 against it, BOIS is 3-0. 2026 standings through 2026-10-31.