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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 24 · 6:00 PM

Boise State Broncos at Washington State Cougars

O/U 52.5 · SPREAD Boise State Broncos -14.5 · Gesa Field, Pullman, WA

GARY'S PICK
Washington State +14.5
NCAAFvs Boise State· -115

Washington State
+14.5

-115 · LOST · BOIS 31 · WSU 10

Boise State

The pick & result

Published pick
Washington State Cougars +14.5 -115
Published odds
-115
Result
Lost
Final score
31-10

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 57 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 18 12:32 PM
Close
Sat 5:59 PM
Move
SPREADBoise State Broncos -13.5 (-112)Boise State Broncos -14.5 (-108)+1
TOTAL50.5 (-108)52.5 (-108)+2
MONEYLINEBoise State Broncos -650Boise State Broncos -650Holds
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 18 12:32 PMBoise State Broncos -13.5 (-112)50.5 (-108)Boise State Broncos -650 · Washington State Cougars +500
Oct 18 1:02 PMBoise State Broncos -14 (-112)50.5 (-110)Boise State Broncos -700 · Washington State Cougars +525
Oct 18 2:02 PMBoise State Broncos -13.5 (-118)50.5 (-108)Boise State Broncos -650 · Washington State Cougars +500
Oct 18 4:03 PMBoise State Broncos -13 (-110)50.5 (-110)Boise State Broncos -550 · Washington State Cougars +425
Oct 18 5:03 PMBoise State Broncos -13 (-108)50.5 (-112)Boise State Broncos -550 · Washington State Cougars +425
Oct 18 6:03 PMBoise State Broncos -12 (-110)50.5 (-115)Boise State Broncos -525 · Washington State Cougars +400
Oct 18 7:04 PMBoise State Broncos -12.5 (-108)50.5 (-118)Boise State Broncos -550 · Washington State Cougars +425
Oct 18 8:04 PMBoise State Broncos -12.5 (-108)51.5 (-105)Boise State Broncos -550 · Washington State Cougars +425
Oct 18 9:04 PMBoise State Broncos -12.5 (-108)51.5 (-105)Boise State Broncos -500 · Washington State Cougars +400
Oct 18 10:04 PMBoise State Broncos -12 (-110)51.5 (-105)Boise State Broncos -525 · Washington State Cougars +400
Oct 19 6:00 AMBoise State Broncos -12 (-110)51.5 (-102)Boise State Broncos -500 · Washington State Cougars +380
Oct 19 11:31 AMBoise State Broncos -13 (-102)51.5 (-105)Boise State Broncos -500 · Washington State Cougars +400
Oct 19 12:31 PMBoise State Broncos -13 (-110)51.5 (-105)Boise State Broncos -550 · Washington State Cougars +425
Oct 19 1:31 PMBoise State Broncos -13 (-108)51.5 (-105)Boise State Broncos -525 · Washington State Cougars +400
Oct 20 12:55 AMBoise State Broncos -13 (-110)51.5 (-105)Boise State Broncos -525 · Washington State Cougars +400
Oct 20 6:00 AMBoise State Broncos -13 (-108)51.5 (-105)Boise State Broncos -525 · Washington State Cougars +400
Oct 20 6:31 AMBoise State Broncos -12.5 (-110)51.5 (-105)Boise State Broncos -500 · Washington State Cougars +400
Oct 20 8:38 AMBoise State Broncos -12.5 (-110)51.5 (-105)Boise State Broncos -525 · Washington State Cougars +400
Oct 20 1:46 PMBoise State Broncos -13 (-108)51.5 (-105)Boise State Broncos -525 · Washington State Cougars +400
Oct 20 2:46 PMBoise State Broncos -13 (-112)51.5 (-110)Boise State Broncos -525 · Washington State Cougars +400
Oct 20 3:17 PMBoise State Broncos -12.5 (-110)51.5 (-110)Boise State Broncos -525 · Washington State Cougars +400
Oct 20 3:47 PMBoise State Broncos -13 (-112)51.5 (-110)Boise State Broncos -525 · Washington State Cougars +400
Oct 20 4:47 PMBoise State Broncos -12.5 (-110)51.5 (-110)Boise State Broncos -525 · Washington State Cougars +400
Oct 20 5:17 PMBoise State Broncos -13 (-112)51.5 (-110)Boise State Broncos -525 · Washington State Cougars +400
Oct 20 9:17 PMBoise State Broncos -13.5 (-110)51.5 (-110)Boise State Broncos -550 · Washington State Cougars +425
Oct 20 9:47 PMBoise State Broncos -13 (-120)51.5 (-110)Boise State Broncos -525 · Washington State Cougars +400
Oct 21 6:01 AMBoise State Broncos -13 (-108)51.5 (-110)Boise State Broncos -500 · Washington State Cougars +400
Oct 21 8:30 AMBoise State Broncos -12.5 (-118)51.5 (-110)Boise State Broncos -500 · Washington State Cougars +400
Oct 21 11:02 AMBoise State Broncos -13 (-108)51.5 (-110)Boise State Broncos -550 · Washington State Cougars +425
Oct 21 5:32 PMBoise State Broncos -13 (-108)51.5 (-112)Boise State Broncos -550 · Washington State Cougars +425
Oct 21 6:19 PMBoise State Broncos -13 (-108)51.5 (-115)Boise State Broncos -550 · Washington State Cougars +425
Oct 21 6:50 PMBoise State Broncos -13 (-108)52.5 (-105)Boise State Broncos -550 · Washington State Cougars +425
Oct 21 8:21 PMBoise State Broncos -13 (-108)52.5 (-108)Boise State Broncos -550 · Washington State Cougars +425
Thu 12:28 PMBoise State Broncos -13 (-110)52.5 (-108)Boise State Broncos -550 · Washington State Cougars +425
Thu 5:23 PMBoise State Broncos -13 (-108)53.5 (-108)Boise State Broncos -550 · Washington State Cougars +425
Thu 6:53 PMBoise State Broncos -13 (-108)53.5 (-110)Boise State Broncos -550 · Washington State Cougars +425
Thu 7:24 PMBoise State Broncos -13 (-108)53.5 (-108)Boise State Broncos -550 · Washington State Cougars +425
Thu 9:24 PMBoise State Broncos -13 (-110)53.5 (-108)Boise State Broncos -550 · Washington State Cougars +425
Fri 3:02 PMBoise State Broncos -13.5 (-108)53.5 (-108)Boise State Broncos -550 · Washington State Cougars +425
Fri 6:41 PMBoise State Broncos -14 (-112)53.5 (-108)Boise State Broncos -650 · Washington State Cougars +500
Fri 6:51 PMBoise State Broncos -14 (-110)53.5 (-108)Boise State Broncos -625 · Washington State Cougars +475
Fri 7:01 PMBoise State Broncos -14 (-112)53.5 (-108)Boise State Broncos -650 · Washington State Cougars +500
Sat 9:00 AMBoise State Broncos -14 (-112)53.5 (-108)Boise State Broncos -625 · Washington State Cougars +475
Sat 9:41 AMBoise State Broncos -14 (-112)53.5 (-110)Boise State Broncos -625 · Washington State Cougars +475
Sat 10:17 AMBoise State Broncos -14 (-112)52.5 (-108)Boise State Broncos -625 · Washington State Cougars +475
Sat 10:21 AMBoise State Broncos -14 (-112)52.5 (-105)Boise State Broncos -625 · Washington State Cougars +475
Sat 10:53 AMBoise State Broncos -14 (-112)52.5 (-105)Boise State Broncos -650 · Washington State Cougars +500
Sat 11:33 AMBoise State Broncos -14.5 (-108)52.5 (-105)Boise State Broncos -625 · Washington State Cougars +475
Sat 2:46 PMBoise State Broncos -14.5 (-105)51.5 (-115)Boise State Broncos -625 · Washington State Cougars +475
Sat 3:46 PMBoise State Broncos -14.5 (-108)52.5 (-108)Boise State Broncos -625 · Washington State Cougars +475
Sat 4:06 PMBoise State Broncos -14.5 (-108)52.5 (-105)Boise State Broncos -650 · Washington State Cougars +475
Sat 4:58 PMBoise State Broncos -14 (-112)52.5 (-108)Boise State Broncos -625 · Washington State Cougars +475
Sat 5:08 PMBoise State Broncos -14 (-112)52.5 (-105)Boise State Broncos -625 · Washington State Cougars +475
Sat 5:19 PMBoise State Broncos -14 (-120)52.5 (-108)Boise State Broncos -625 · Washington State Cougars +475
Sat 5:29 PMBoise State Broncos -14.5 (-105)52.5 (-108)Boise State Broncos -625 · Washington State Cougars +475
Sat 5:39 PMBoise State Broncos -14.5 (-105)52.5 (-108)Boise State Broncos -650 · Washington State Cougars +475
Sat 5:49 PMBoise State Broncos -14.5 (-108)52.5 (-108)Boise State Broncos -650 · Washington State Cougars +500
CLOSESat 5:59 PMBoise State Broncos -14.5 (-108)52.5 (-108)Boise State Broncos -650 · Washington State Cougars +500

The read

Boise State comes off a bye and heads to Pullman laying 14.5 against a Washington State team still searching for its first win over an FBS opponent. The Broncos should win. The question is whether they're as dominant as this number needs them to be, and I don't think they've shown it.

Boise's scoreboard runs ahead of its snaps. The pass defense has leaked: Oregon threw for 378, Memphis for 384 and Fresno State for 277. Fourth-down stops bailed it out, with Oregon 0-for-3, Memphis 0-for-2 and Western Michigan 0-for-3. A pick-six and a punt-return touchdown padded the margins too. Spencer Danielson spent the week talking about tackling and eye discipline, and the results back him up.

Washington State made the one change in this game that actually matters. Under Caden Pinnick (952 yards, 5 interceptions), the offense was dreadful. In his first start, Owen Eshelman threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 136 at Oregon State. It's one game, and some of it came while chasing a 27-10 halftime hole. Still, a quarterback who can run is exactly what stresses a defense with tackling problems.

Boise's style also works against a big number. The Broncos grind the clock and had just 8 drives at Fresno. Fewer possessions turn the same edge into a smaller margin, so covering asks Boise to cash in on nearly every trip.

The case for Boise is real. Dylan Riley has 835 yards on 127 carries, and the run game went for 274 at Fresno. This Cougars front gave up 295 rushing yards to Kansas State and 208 to Oregon State. If Eshelman's debut was a mirage, that ground game wins this going away.

What doesn't move me: - Ben Ford is out, but Rasean Jones, Boise's leading receiver, is back. - Jason Steele has already started twice at left guard. - Darrius Clemons is doubtful, but Branden Ganashamoorthy caught 11 balls for 147 yards without him. - Kirby Moore facing his alma mater is a storyline the line already heard.

This is a lean, not a hammer: Washington State +14.5.

Injuries noted

Boise State Broncos: Ben Ford (out) — Rotation wide receiver; undisclosed injury. October 23 reporting attributed to the Pac-12 availability report rules him out, superseding Wednesday's questionable designation.; Carson Rasmussen (out) — Starting left guard; undisclosed injury. Official game-specific report lists him out; October 22 reporting says this will be his third consecutive missed game.

Washington State Cougars: Nylan Brown (out for season) — Linebacker; Havoc's Friday report, attributed to Pac-12 availability reporting, lists him out for the season. Condition unspecified.; Tony Freeman (out) — Wide receiver; October 23 reporting establishes his continuing absence with a torn ACL.; Darrius Clemons (doubtful) — Starting wide receiver; ankle injury sustained against Oregon State. Listed doubtful for October 24.; Ashton Tripp (questionable) — Starting left tackle; listed questionable on this game's availability report. The opened current-week report does not specify his condition.; Carsten Reynolds (questionable) — Linebacker; Havoc's Friday report, attributed to Pac-12 availability reporting, lists him questionable. Condition unspecified.; Jeremiah Bernard (questionable) — Safety; listed questionable for this matchup. Condition unspecified.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Maddux Madsen is BOIS's projected starter

    7.81 Y/A

    Maddux Madsen is BOIS's projected starting quarterback. The October 23 depth-chart report explicitly projects Madsen to start at Washington State; that week's game preview discusses him as Boise State's quarterback. An opened team declaration confirming this game's starter was not retrieved. 2026 line: 1296 passing yards, 66.3% completions, 7.81 yards per attempt, 13-0 TD-INT over 6 games.

  • Owen Eshelman is WSU's confirmed starter

    5.90 Y/A

    Owen Eshelman is WSU's confirmed starting quarterback. Washington State's current-week game notes list Eshelman first at quarterback on the Boise State depth chart. The October 23 preview discusses him continuing after replacing Caden Pinnick. 2026 line: 289 passing yards, 65.3% completions, 5.90 yards per attempt, 2-1 TD-INT over 1 games.

TRENCHES

  • BOIS: 106.8 rushing yards allowed per game to WSU's 158.6

    51.7 YPG

    BOIS is at 106.8 rushing yards allowed per game over 6 games; WSU is at 158.6 over 7 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 23.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • BOIS: 35 points per game to WSU's 20.1

    14.9 PPG

    BOIS is at 35 points per game over 6 games; WSU is at 20.1 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 23. Last season BOIS was at 29.9 over 14 games and WSU at 22.5 over 13 games.

  • BOIS: 36:22 time of possession per game to WSU's 28:43

    7:39 TOP

    BOIS is at 36:22 time of possession per game over 6 games; WSU is at 28:43 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 23. Last season BOIS was at 32:59 over 14 games and WSU at 32:24 over 13 games.

TURNOVERS

  • BOIS: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to WSU's 1.71

    1.21 TO

    Boise State has cut turnovers from 1.5 a game last season to 0.5, a big change over six games that will probably creep back up some. Washington State is close to last year's 1.62. Boise State's ball security on the road keeps Washington State from getting easy points it badly needs.

MISMATCH

  • BOIS: 234.5 rush yards a game to WSU's 130

    234.5 VS 130

    Boise State runs for 234.5 yards a game over 6 games, up from 179.1 last season, while Washington State sits at 130, near its 128.2 from last year. Boise was already a strong rushing team, so some of this gain should hold even if it cools. Washington State has to stack the box and get Boise into obvious passing downs, or the Broncos will control the clock on the road.

REPLACEMENT

  • Nylan Brown (LB) is out for the season for WSU

    OUT FOR SEASON

    Linebacker; Havoc's Friday report, attributed to Pac-12 availability reporting, lists him out for the season. Condition unspecified. Havoc: Boise State vs Washington State — Pac-12 availability report marked Friday 10:08 PM for Saturday, October 24 (2026-10-23)

  • Ben Ford (WR) is out for BOIS

    OUT

    Rotation wide receiver; undisclosed injury. October 23 reporting attributed to the Pac-12 availability report rules him out, superseding Wednesday's questionable designation. RotoWire: Ben Ford — Not playing versus Washington State (2026-10-23)

  • Carson Rasmussen (OL) is out for BOIS

    OUT

    Starting left guard; undisclosed injury. Official game-specific report lists him out; October 22 reporting says this will be his third consecutive missed game. Boise State Athletics: Week Eight Availability Report (2026-10-21) Boise State Broncos On SI: No. 21 Boise State gets major injury boost ahead of Washington State matchup (2026-10-22)

  • Tony Freeman (WR) is out for WSU

    OUT

    Wide receiver; October 23 reporting establishes his continuing absence with a torn ACL. The Spokesman-Review: To pull upset on No. 21 Boise State, WSU will have to play its best all-around game of the season (2026-10-23)

SITUATIONAL

  • BOIS: 50% third-down conversion rate to WSU's 29.5%

    20.5 PP

    BOIS is at 50% third-down conversion rate over 6 games; WSU is at 29.5% over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 23. Last season BOIS was at 45.6% over 14 games and WSU at 38.1% over 13 games.

  • BOIS has 7 more days of rest

    14d vs 7d

    Boise State comes in on 14 days after its bye while Washington State plays on a regular week at home. The extra prep time and recovery help a road team most, since it cuts into the home side's usual comfort. Washington State's seven days is a standard turnaround, nothing that suggests fatigue. Count the rest gap as a small push in Boise State's favor on the road.

  • BOIS: 24.2 first downs per game to WSU's 18

    6.2 FD

    BOIS is at 24.2 first downs per game over 6 games; WSU is at 18 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 23. Last season BOIS was at 22.1 over 14 games and WSU at 19.5 over 13 games.

TEAM RECORD

  • Pac-12 game: BOIS 2-0, WSU 0-3 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the Pac-12. BOIS is 2-0 against it, WSU is 0-3. 2026 standings through 2026-10-24.

  • BOIS is 2-1 on the road; WSU is 1-2 at home

    2-1

    The site split favours BOIS: WSU has played 3 games at home this season and BOIS 3 games away from it. 2026 standings through 2026-10-24.

MARKET RANGE

  • BOIS @ WSU books span 1.5 points

    +14–+15.5

    The current home spread ranges from +14 to +15.5 across 6 sportsbooks. That is book disagreement, not a public-bet or sharp-money signal.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 24, 2026 at 8:11 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betmgm, draftkings, caesars, betrivers.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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