The 6-2 Lakers visit Golden 1 Center with Luka Doncic on a tear, and the 1-6 Kings are buried in trade rumors and job-security talk. It looks like an easy spot to lay the points, but I'm taking Sacramento +12.5. This is a bet on the number, not on the Kings. The Lakers give margins back. They're +105 through three quarters this season but only +58 at the final horn, and they've lost the fourth quarter in six of eight games. They led Toronto by 22 after three on Sunday and won by 6. Sacramento is +5 in fourth quarters, so even a big Lakers lead isn't a safe cover. The season margins also overstate the gap. The Lakers are about +7.3 per game and the Kings about -14.1, but the schedules aren't close. Four of the Lakers' six wins came against Miami (2-5), the Clippers (1-6) twice and Utah (1-6), and only two of those four cleared 12.5. Sacramento has played five of seven on the road against a slate that includes Memphis (6-1) twice, Portland (5-1) and San Antonio (5-2). Location matters too. The Kings lost by 25, 27 and 31 on the road, but at home they lost by 11 to Memphis and 8 to Portland, and both would cover this number. The Lakers have won by 16 at the Clippers and 9 at Utah, and lost by 17 at Golden State. Sacramento also has a way to score. Toronto had 22 offensive rebounds and 37 second-chance points against the Lakers, and Utah had 20 and 34. Domantas Sabonis has 14 or more rebounds in four of the last five games, Dylan Cardwell is expected to debut, and Malik Monk just gave the bench 24 points in 30 minutes. The Lakers also turn it over 18.4 times a game. This can still go wrong. Doncic has at least 37 points in five straight games, and the Kings allow 124.3 points (29th) while committing the fifth-most fouls. The Dallas win came with the Mavericks shooting 7-33 from three, so don't price it in. The Clippers' only win is a 25-point beating of Sacramento, and Sabonis has taken just 4, 5 and 7 shots in the last three games while Darius Acuff Jr. has taken 21, 25 and 26. If that turns into Acuff against Walker Kessler at the rim, the floor drops. At 12.5, though, I'll take the points.
The 6-2 Lakers visit Golden 1 Center with Luka Doncic on a tear, and the 1-6 Kings are buried in trade rumors and job-security talk. It looks like an easy spot to lay the points, but I'm taking Sacramento +12.5. This is a bet on the number, not on the Kings.
The Lakers give margins back. They're +105 through three quarters this season but only +58 at the final horn, and they've lost the fourth quarter in six of eight games. They led Toronto by 22 after three on Sunday and won by 6. Sacramento is +5 in fourth quarters, so even a big Lakers lead isn't a safe cover.
The season margins also overstate the gap. The Lakers are about +7.3 per game and the Kings about -14.1, but the schedules aren't close. Four of the Lakers' six wins came against Miami (2-5), the Clippers (1-6) twice and Utah (1-6), and only two of those four cleared 12.5. Sacramento has played five of seven on the road against a slate that includes Memphis (6-1) twice, Portland (5-1) and San Antonio (5-2).
Location matters too. The Kings lost by 25, 27 and 31 on the road, but at home they lost by 11 to Memphis and 8 to Portland, and both would cover this number. The Lakers have won by 16 at the Clippers and 9 at Utah, and lost by 17 at Golden State.
Sacramento also has a way to score. Toronto had 22 offensive rebounds and 37 second-chance points against the Lakers, and Utah had 20 and 34. Domantas Sabonis has 14 or more rebounds in four of the last five games, Dylan Cardwell is expected to debut, and Malik Monk just gave the bench 24 points in 30 minutes. The Lakers also turn it over 18.4 times a game.
This can still go wrong. Doncic has at least 37 points in five straight games, and the Kings allow 124.3 points (29th) while committing the fifth-most fouls. The Dallas win came with the Mavericks shooting 7-33 from three, so don't price it in. The Clippers' only win is a 25-point beating of Sacramento, and Sabonis has taken just 4, 5 and 7 shots in the last three games while Darius Acuff Jr. has taken 21, 25 and 26. If that turns into Acuff against Walker Kessler at the rim, the floor drops. At 12.5, though, I'll take the points.
Kings +12.5