Daily archive

2026-07-12

The stored Gary board for Sun, Jul 12. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB12:15 PM

Brewers @ Pirates

It is a warm, beautiful afternoon at PNC Park as the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates face off in a highly anticipated Sunday matchup with massive division implications. The public is laying money on the Pirates because of the late scratch of Milwaukee's scheduled starter, but that has created an absolute gift of a price on the first-place Brewers at +110. While Paul Skenes is a phenomenal talent with a stellar 2.74 xERA on the season, his massive situational split cannot be ignored today: Skenes has been highly vulnerable in day games, posting a 5.87 ERA under the sun compared to a 2.61 ERA at night. Milwaukee's patient lineup holds a low 18.7% team whiff rate to combat Skenes' velocity, and Christian Yelich has hit him well, carrying a .444 average in nine career at-bats. On the other side, Robert Gasser steps into the rotation in excellent recent form, having posted a microscopic 1.82 ERA over his last four starts. Gasser’s season-long 4.15 ERA is due for positive regression, backed by a much stronger 3.43 xERA and a solid 1.18 WHIP. He faces a Pirates lineup that is a fringe .500 team at home (26-24) and holds a weaker overall pitching staff with a 4.31 team ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, compared to the Brewers' elite 3.36 team ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Even with strong platoon threats like Esmerlyn Valdez, who hits .345 against left-handers, Gasser’s recent 1.82 ERA over his last 29.2 innings demonstrates his current efficiency at suppressing opponent scoring. The real difference-maker today lies in the late-inning situations and defensive stability. The Pirates' bullpen is heavily fatigued and enters this game severely depleted, with key setup man Carmen Mlodzinski completely unavailable after throwing 57 pitches yesterday, and closer Gregory Soto highly taxed after throwing 31 pitches over the last three days. Conversely, the Brewers have their elite closer Trevor Megill fully rested with a 3.00 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. When you add the Brewers' defensive superiority—having committed only 39 errors and a .988 fielding percentage compared to the Pirates' 57 errors and catcher Henry Davis's six passed balls behind the plate—Milwaukee holds the statistically superior process to secure the victory in the late frames.

Brewers ML+110

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78%

MLB1:35 PM

Royals @ Orioles

A humid Sunday afternoon at Camden Yards sets the stage for a critical series finale as the surging Baltimore Orioles look to complete a four-game sweep of the struggling Kansas City Royals. With the All-Star break looming, this matchup features two fly-ball-oriented starting pitchers navigating a hitter-friendly environment with winds blowing out to the outfield. The pitching matchup heavily favors Baltimore. Orioles starter Shane Baz (4.21 ERA, 4.51 xERA) offers a high-velocity 96.1 mph fastball and has shown remarkable consistency, pitching at least five innings in eleven consecutive starts. On the other side, Royals starter Seth Lugo enters in a highly vulnerable spot. While Lugo holds a 4.56 ERA, his underlying metrics indicate heavy regression is overdue, highlighted by a stark 5.41 xERA. He faces difficult situational splits with a 5.82 ERA in day games and a 5.48 ERA on the road. Furthermore, Lugo's primary sinker has been hit hard all year, allowing a massive .508 xwOBA, while Baltimore's lineup features high-performing hitters against righties, including Pete Alonso (.888 OPS vs RHP), Blaze Alexander (.860 OPS), and Samuel Basallo (.853 OPS). This matchup becomes even more lopsided when looking at recent offensive form and the bullpen situation. Over their last three games, the Orioles' offense has been highly productive, averaging an elite .442 xwOBA, an 11.6% barrel rate, and a 92.3 mph average exit velocity. Meanwhile, the Royals' bats have struggled, putting up a dismal .271 xwOBA and a tiny 1.4% barrel rate over that same span. Although Baltimore is dealing with a fresh injury to closer Ryan Helsley, who was diagnosed with UCL inflammation yesterday, their remaining high-leverage arms remain highly efficient. Bullpen options like Rico Garcia (2.68 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) give Baltimore a significant late-inning advantage over Kansas City's high-ERA late-inning options like Lucas Erceg (5.00 ERA, 1.64 WHIP) and Alex Lange (5.92 ERA, 1.53 WHIP). With the Royals on a four-game losing streak and carrying a dreadful 17-32 road record, backing the Orioles on the moneyline at a reasonable -148 price is the sharpest play on the board.

Orioles ML-148

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85%

MLB1:35 PM

Yankees @ Nationals

It is a beautiful afternoon at Nationals Park as the Yankees look to secure a series sweep, but the real story of this finale lies in a structural mismatch that makes the road underdogs an incredibly sharp bet. The starting pitching matchup heavily favors New York's Will Warren in this spot. Warren is a completely different pitcher in daylight, bringing an elite 2.66 ERA over 44.0 afternoon innings into today's start. Conversely, Washington’s Cade Cavalli has struggled in day games with a 4.27 ERA and is returning from a five-game suspension that could disrupt his rhythm. More importantly, Cavalli exhibits extreme platoon issues, allowing a .297 AVG and .802 OPS to left-handed hitters. The Yankees are starting seven lefties today, including Ben Rice, who carries a 1.055 OPS against right-handed pitching and is 2-for-2 in his career against Cavalli. Once Cavalli is forced to navigate this lefty-heavy minefield, the game will shift to the bullpens, where the Nationals face a critical depth crisis. Washington's relief corps is the most overworked unit in baseball, carrying a league-high fatigue score of 77 and having thrown nearly 30 more innings than any other team. Key arm Poulin is limited after throwing 31 pitches yesterday, and Brad Lord is on the injured list. New York’s bullpen has its own fatigue, with closer David Bednar likely resting after throwing 38 pitches over the last two days, but they retain premium high-leverage depth. The Yankees can confidently hand a lead to Fernando Cruz (2.25 ERA) and Luke Weaver, who is currently riding a stellar 26.0-inning scoreless streak. The team context and market price make this a stellar opportunity. The Yankees are highly comfortable on the road, boasting a 30-22 away record, while the Nationals have consistently faltered at home with a 20-30 record. Washington is also playing without key contact hitter Jacob Young, forcing Dylan Crews (.216 average, 0-for-7 in this series) into the starting lineup. After taking the first two games of this set by scores of 5-3 and 4-2, the Yankees have all the matchup advantages necessary to finish the sweep. Grabbing New York at near even-money is the absolute best value on today's board.

Yankees ML-102

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78%

MLB1:40 PM

Red Sox @ Mets

Under the bright afternoon sun at Citi Field, the red-hot Boston Red Sox look to complete a series sweep against a struggling New York Mets squad in this Sunday matinee. On the mound, we have a clear mismatch in starting pitching profile and underlying quality. Red Sox rookie left-hander Payton Tolle has been highly reliable, bringing a 3.14 ERA that is backed by a 3.07 xERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and elite contact suppression metrics like a 6.8% barrel rate and 34.1% hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, Mets starter Zach Thornton enters with a 4.35 ERA that is heavily masking his poor underlying metrics, including a 5.41 xERA and a .355 opponent xwOBA. Thornton relies heavily on his cutter, using it 45.6% of the time, but opponents have punished that specific pitch to the tune of a .442 xwOBA. This starting pitching mismatch plays perfectly into the hands of a Red Sox offense that is currently operating at an elite level, carrying a robust 0.408 xwOBA and an 11.4% barrel rate over their last three games. Hitters like Wilyer Abreu and Anthony Seigler, who carry .973 and .860 OPS marks against left-handed pitching respectively, are primed to face Thornton's soft-tossing left-handed profile. Contrast that with a Mets lineup currently in freefall due to a wave of high-impact, fresh infield injuries. With Marcus Semien out with a left hip injury and Mark Vientos sidelined by a fractured right hand within the last three days, alongside Bo Bichette dealing with leg soreness, the Mets have been forced to start replacement-level bats. The sudden disruption has choked their offense, which went 0-for-16 with runners in scoring position while scoring just two runs over the first two games of this series. We are getting the far superior starting pitcher and a red-hot offense at near-even money. Boston is riding an eight-game road winning streak, outscoring opponents 45-12 over that span, while New York has dropped two straight and possesses a mediocre 21-27 record at Citi Field. While Tolle has had his day-game struggles, the sheer drop-off in the Mets' available batting order and Thornton's dangerous under-the-hood metrics make the Red Sox moneyline the strongest play on the board. Trust the team in elite form to keep the momentum rolling.

Red Sox ML-110

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82%

MLB1:40 PM

Cubs @ Reds

It is a warm, humid Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati as the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds lock horns in a decisive rubber match at Great American Ball Park. With both teams seeking to claim the series, this afternoon clash centers on a pair of left-handers navigating a high-total environment. My read tonight is on the Cincinnati Reds at a strong plus-money price of +108. The deciding factor is how perfectly this Reds lineup is constructed to exploit Cubs starter Matthew Boyd. Boyd has glaring platoon splits, holding left-handers to a microscopic .435 OPS but allowing a .287 average and .814 OPS to right-handed bats. The Reds counter with a lineup featuring six righties and two switch-hitters, most notably Elly De La Cruz. De La Cruz has been a force against lefties, rocking a massive 1.081 OPS and eight home runs in 89 at-bats, and he matches up seamlessly against Boyd's heavy diet of four-seamers and changeups. Furthermore, the Reds' bats are red-hot, posting a stellar .405 xwOBA and 9.3% barrel rate over their last three games, which spells trouble for Boyd and his high 50% hard-hit rate in GABP's humid air. While some might lean toward Chicago due to Andrew Abbott's expected regression—his 3.92 ERA is lower than his 4.77 xERA—the Cubs do not have the current offensive juice to exploit it. Chicago's lineup has fallen into a severe power slump, sputtering to an anemic 1.5% barrel rate and a mere 24.2% hard-hit rate over their last three games. Abbott has been particularly tough on right-handed hitters, holding them to a .240 batting average, which will help him neutralize key righty bats. Abbott is also highly effective in day games, carrying a 3.66 ERA, and he should have enough leash to navigate a cold Cubs lineup. While Cincinnati’s bullpen was taxed on Saturday, the recall of fresh arm Chase Petty provides crucial middle-relief length. In a game where the Reds’ offense is poised to jump out to an early lead against Boyd, the bullpen’s fatigue becomes much less of a deciding factor. Getting the Reds as home underdogs at +108 in a matchup where their offense holds such a distinct, structural advantage is simply too much value to pass up. Put your money on the Reds to take the series.

Reds ML+108

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72%

MLB1:40 PM

Guardians @ Marlins

It is a beautiful afternoon under the closed roof at loanDepot park as the Cleveland Guardians look to complete a three-game road sweep of the Miami Marlins in this final clash before the break. With Cleveland already taking the first two contests, the stage is set for a masterclass in situational baseball. The starting pitching matchup represents a massive mismatch in both current form and physical preparation. Cleveland's Joey Cantillo has been in lockdown form, pitching to a stellar 1.55 ERA over his last five starts and allowing one earned run or fewer in four of those outings. He faces a Miami lineup with zero career experience against him. Meanwhile, Miami is forced to start Tyler Phillips on just three days' rest. Phillips has been a solid contributor, but his 3.28 ERA is screaming for regression when measured against his 4.80 xERA. Asking Phillips to navigate this start on short rest is a dangerous gamble, especially considering his extreme vulnerability to left-handed batters, who have tagged him for a .789 OPS this season. The Guardians are perfectly positioned to exploit this platoon split, rolling out eight left-handed and switch-hitters in their starting lineup. This game will ultimately be decided by depth and late-inning stability. With Phillips expected to be on a very short leash, Miami's bullpen will be asked to shoulder a massive workload. That is a major problem for a relief staff that just lost left-handed weapon John King to a fresh ankle sprain two days ago, further thinning an already depleted middle-relief bridge. Cleveland, on the other hand, boasts a fully rested back end. With Tanner Bibee eating up 6.2 innings yesterday, elite arms like Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis are completely fresh on one day of rest. Combined with a massive defensive advantage—Cleveland has committed only 47 errors compared to Miami's 59—and the fresh absence of Miami's Owen Caissie in the outfield, the Guardians are in a perfect position to choke out the Marlins late. At -106, backing the hotter, healthier, and better-rested Guardians to secure the sweep is the sharp play.

Guardians ML-106

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72%

MLB1:40 PM

Phillies @ Tigers

Welcome to a sunny Sunday afternoon at Comerica Park, where two of the game's premier starting pitchers are set to duel under clear skies in a spectacular interleague matchup. The red-hot Detroit Tigers host the Philadelphia Phillies in a game that has all the makings of a classic pitcher's battle, but the betting value lies in the team wearing the road grays. On the mound, Zack Wheeler is having a sensational year at 9-1 with a 2.28 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. When he pitches in the afternoon, he elevates his game to a historical level, posting a minuscule 0.90 ERA in day games and a stellar 1.93 ERA on the road. On the other side, Tarik Skubal is an outstanding arm, but his home performance this season has been shaky, posting a 3.99 ERA at Comerica Park compared to a 2.40 ERA on the road. This stadium-split differential, combined with Wheeler's absolute daytime dominance, gives the Phillies a distinct advantage on the mound that the current line is underestimating. The critical tactical edge is Skubal's pronounced reverse platoon split. This season, Skubal has struggled significantly against left-handed batters, allowing a .281 batting average and a .772 OPS to lefties compared to a stingy .198 average and a .599 OPS against right-handed hitters. The Phillies' offense is built around a powerhouse left-handed core that is uniquely equipped to exploit this exact vulnerability. Kyle Schwarber possesses a monstrous .967 OPS against left-handed pitching this year, and Bryce Harper has historically owned Skubal, boasting a 3-for-6 career line with a 1.167 OPS against him. This matchup will allow Philadelphia's elite left-handed hitters to generate hard contact and drive in runs where other teams fail. While the public is heavily backing the Tigers due to their hot 8-2 run over their last 10 games, sharp money looks at the regression and late-game execution. The Tigers' bullpen is short-handed following a very fresh injury to setup man Will Vest, who was placed on the IL on July 10 with a right elbow stress fracture. This thins out the Tigers' middle relief and puts extra pressure on their backend. Conversely, the Phillies possess a lockdown closer in Jhoan Duran, who is rested and available after throwing just eight pitches on Saturday to protect his 1.38 ERA and 24 saves. With Wheeler neutralizing Detroit's lefties and Duran ready to seal the deal in the 9th, getting the Phillies at +114 on the moneyline is an outstanding value.

Phillies ML+114

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78%

MLB1:40 PM

Mariners @ Rays

It’s a Sunday afternoon under the dome at Tropicana Field, where the high-flying Tampa Bay Rays look to complete a series sweep against a reeling Seattle Mariners squad trying to salvage their road trip before the All-Star break. For me, this matchup comes down to a massive disparity in starting pitcher quality that the surface ERAs are completely hiding. Emerson Hancock takes the mound for Seattle with a shiny 3.23 ERA, but his 4.33 xERA and highly vulnerable primary fastballs—including a sinker and four-seamer carrying .406 and .351 xwOBAs—suggest he is running on borrowed time. On the other side, Tampa Bay's Ian Seymour possesses a 4.11 ERA that belies an elite 3.21 xERA, indicating he is throwing much better than his results suggest, especially at home where he has maintained a 3.05 ERA across 38.1 innings. The hitting profiles perfectly amplify this pitching mismatch. The Rays' top-of-the-order is primed to punish Hancock's fastball-heavy arsenal, led by Junior Caminero’s .765 slugging percentage against four-seamers and Jonathan Aranda’s .580 slugging percentage against sinkers. Conversely, Seymour boasts a rare reverse-platoon advantage that holds right-handed hitters to a .189 average and .569 OPS. This is a nightmare matchup for a Mariners lineup starting six right-handed or switch hitters, especially with star outfielder Julio Rodriguez sidelined due to a fresh concussion suffered on July 10. Without Rodriguez's presence, Seattle's offense has completely dried up, scoring just three runs in the first two games of this series and going 0-for-20 with runners in scoring position over their last three contests. Tampa Bay's elite home dominance and defensive excellence provide the final cushion for this bet. The Rays are a juggernaut at Tropicana Field with a 35-14 home record, while the Mariners are a mediocre 20-29 on the road and currently riding a five-game losing streak. Furthermore, Tampa Bay's defense ranks third in the majors with 49 total Defensive Runs Saved, which will perfectly shield Seymour's fly-ball tendency (0.53 grounders per flyout) against a depleted Seattle offense. While Seattle has a fresher bullpen, the Rays' superior offensive firepower, starting pitching edge, and home-field advantage make the Tampa Bay moneyline at -142 the absolute sharpest ticket on the board today.

Rays ML-142

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82%

MLB2:10 PM

Angels @ Twins

An absolute scorcher of an afternoon is on tap at Target Field as the Minnesota Twins host the Los Angeles Angels in a critical series clash under a baking Heat Advisory. With temperatures hitting ninety-four degrees and the wind blowing out toward left field, this is a spot where starting pitching form and tactical matchups will define the game. The Twins send Taj Bradley to the hill, who enters in absolute peak form with an 8-3 record, a 3.67 ERA, and a stellar 10.5 K/9 across seventeen starts. Bradley is showing elite stuff of late, dominant over his last three outings with 28 strikeouts in nineteen innings while surrendering just four earned runs. His underlying metrics are highly sustainable, backed by a 3.77 xERA that matches his actual performance. Compare this to Angels starter José Soriano, who holds an 8-5 record and a 3.40 ERA but has regressed sharply to the tune of a 6.16 ERA over his last four starts. Soriano’s season numbers are incredibly fortunate given his 4.27 xERA, and he is a prime candidate to be hit hard today. The critical mismatch tonight lies in how the Twins' offense matches up with Soriano's massive platoon vulnerability. Soriano has struggled significantly against left-handed hitting, allowing a hefty .739 OPS and ten of his twelve surrendered home runs to lefties. Minnesota's manager has built a lineup designed to exploit this, packing five left-handed or switch-hitters in their top seven today: Trevor Larnach, Josh Bell, Kody Clemens, Brooks Lee, and Alan Roden. This potent Minnesota offense averages 4.9 runs per game on the season and has been rolling lately, averaging 5.0 runs per game over their last ten games. Meanwhile, the Angels' defense has been highly error-prone, carrying fifty-eight errors and a lower .983 fielding percentage compared to Minnesota’s steadier fifty-one errors and .985 fielding percentage, creating extra opportunities for a Twins lineup that is already poised for a big afternoon. From a situational perspective, these two teams are heading in opposite directions. The Twins are 47-49 overall, a solid 6-4 in their last ten games, and sit just three games out of the division lead, making every single home matchup vital. The Angels have plummeted to 38-58, managing an ugly 2-8 mark over their last ten contests while giving up a porous 5.3 runs per game. Even with Mike Trout back in the Angels' lineup, the lack of depth on both sides of the ball and the clear starting pitching edge on the mound makes this a pristine spot to back the home favorites. I’m backing the Twins on the moneyline to take care of business at Target Field and secure a much-needed home victory.

Twins ML-132

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82%

MLB2:10 PM

Athletics @ White Sox

Sunny skies and warm 78-degree afternoon air welcome us to Rate Field, where the Chicago White Sox look to complete a series sweep against a reeling Oakland Athletics squad. This afternoon's matchup on the South Side presents a classic mismatch of teams heading in polar opposite directions, and the betting value lies directly with the home favorites. Our read starts on the mound, where Oakland starter J.T. Ginn is a prime candidate for a hard regression check. While Ginn sports a tidy 3.10 ERA, his 4.04 xERA and a -0.94 ERA-minus-xERA differential indicate he has been living on borrowed time. This regression is highly likely to strike today due to Ginn's severe platoon weakness. Ginn has been heavily vulnerable against left-handed hitters, allowing a .250 batting average and a .751 OPS with seven home runs. The White Sox are perfectly positioned to exploit this vulnerability by stacking their lineup with seven left-handed or switch-hitters today, including Sam Antonacci and Munetaka Murakami. Chicago's offense is currently in an elite contact-quality groove, posting a .400 xwOBA and a 10.1% barrel rate over their last three games, and their hitters match up beautifully against Ginn’s primary sinker-changeup mix. On the other side, Oakland’s offense is completely depleted and ill-equipped to exploit Chicago starter Noah Schultz. The Athletics are mired in an eight-game losing streak, averaging a dismal 0.75 runs per game over their last four contests and managing just one run over 18 innings in this series. Any chance of them taking advantage of Schultz's righty-platoon vulnerability (.831 OPS allowed) has been wiped out by fresh injuries. Oakland lost All-Star first baseman Nick Kurtz to a right thumb strain yesterday, adding to the recent loss of Zack Gelof with a knee laceration. Without these core power threats, the Athletics lack the teeth to punish Schultz’s 12% barrel rate. While Schultz’s 6.00 ERA is shaky, Chicago’s absolute dominance at home (30-17 record, a .638 winning percentage) provides a massive security blanket. Oakland's bullpen is also in a 'Red Zone' fatigue state after facing 76 batters over the past three days, leaving their 29th-ranked unit (5.23 ERA) deeply exposed. Rather than laying the run line in a potential close game, we are backing the White Sox moneyline at -144 to lock in a highly favorable price on a team built to sweep.

White Sox ML-144

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82%

MLB2:15 PM

Braves @ Cardinals

Under a bright, sunny afternoon sky at Busch Stadium, the St. Louis Cardinals look to complete a three-game sweep of the powerhouse Atlanta Braves. While the Cardinals have commanded the first two games of this series, Sunday afternoon presents a classic spot to buy low on Atlanta at plus-money. Despite Dustin May's strong overall metrics, he has a major day-game issue, pitching to a bloated 6.81 ERA under the sun. Furthermore, May struggles severely against left-handed hitting, yielding a .297 AVG and an .800 OPS to LHBs this season. The top of the Braves' lineup is perfectly aligned to attack this weakness, featuring high-quality lefties in Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, and Michael Harris II. Olson (.414 xwOBA vs sinkers) and Baldwin (.432 xwOBA vs sinkers) match up spectacularly against May’s primary sinker, which has allowed a dangerous .314 opponent xwOBA on the year. The late-inning bullpen equation also heavily favors Atlanta. The Braves' high-leverage bullpen arms are completely fresh, with their top leverage pieces and closer fully rested. Conversely, the Cardinals' bullpen is completely gassed after hard-fought wins on Friday and Saturday. Their closer is almost certainly unavailable after throwing back-to-back saves to secure consecutive victories, and their key late-inning setup options are banged up. If the Braves can keep this close or knock May out early, Atlanta's fresh bullpen will have a massive advantage over St. Louis’s exhausted depth arms in the late frames. Ultimately, the Braves are a first-place, 54-40 team with a +1.28 run differential per game compared to St. Louis's +0.36. While JR Ritchie’s 4.60 ERA and 4.80 xERA present some risk, the rest of the puzzle—May's day-game and platoon splits, a major bullpen rest advantage, and a prime motivation to avoid a sweep—all tilt the scale. Getting a superior roster at +110 to avoid a sweep is a classic sharp play.

Braves ML+110

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68%

MLB2:35 PM

Astros @ Rangers

It is a hot, stormy afternoon in Arlington, but the roof is closed at Globe Life Field as the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers battle in this deciding rubber match of their weekend set. This is a classic division rivalry game where the public is looking at one set of numbers, but the sharp money is looking at who has the arms to finish the job. The crowd will see MacKenzie Gore’s solid 3.54 home ERA compared to Cristian Javier’s ugly 10.22 ERA and immediately run to lay the -138 with the Rangers. But Javier is not stretched out, and with Texas already dealing with an altered rotation, this game is destined to become a war of attrition between two bullpens. The market is over-weighting a starting pitching matchup that will likely only last a few innings. The real story of this game is the late-inning depth, and that is where the value shifts heavily toward Houston. The Rangers' pitching staff is reeling from the fresh scratch of Jacob deGrom due to a glute strain, which has thrown their pitching plans into disarray. Compounding this, Texas recently placed Jalen Beeks on the 10-day injured list with back spasms, severely compromising a bullpen that already had Chris Martin throw 43 pitches yesterday. Meanwhile, Houston’s relief corps is exceptionally fresh, having faced the fewest batters of any team over the last three days. The back end is anchored by a dominant Josh Hader, who boasts a microscopic 0.59 ERA, 10 saves, and an elite 43.9% strikeout rate, giving the Astros a massive advantage in the leverage frames. On the offensive side, Houston’s lineup is at near-full strength with Jeremy Peña back at shortstop and Yordan Alvarez hitting .315 with 31 home runs. They face Gore, who, despite his solid home numbers, has shown a distinct vulnerability against right-handed hitters, surrendering 10 home runs to righties this season. Furthermore, Houston’s defense is uniquely equipped to assist Javier early; his extreme fly-ball profile (0.47 GO/AO) is protected by an elite outfield featuring Cam Smith (+8 DRS) and Brice Matthews (+8 DRS) to secure the gaps. Once this game transitions to the middle relievers, Houston’s rested arms and defensive stability will take control. I am backing the Astros at +118 to take the series.

Astros ML+118

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72%

MLB4:05 PM

Rockies @ Giants

We're wrapping up the weekend under cloudy skies at Oracle Park as the Giants and Rockies square off in a divisional finale where the underlying metrics tell a completely different story than the surface numbers. This afternoon’s matchup represents a classic betting opportunity where the public is looking at identical recent records, but the raw pitching matchups and situational splits reveal a massive edge for the home side. The starting pitching matchup is where the value truly lies. San Francisco's Trevor McDonald comes in with a deceptive 5.46 ERA, but his 4.04 xERA and contact suppression—highlighted by a 3.8% barrel rate and a 38.2% hard-hit rate—indicate he is due for positive regression. On the other side, Michael Lorenzen has struggled for Colorado, saddled with a 6.46 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP. Lorenzen's 5.44 xERA confirms his vulnerability, allowing an 8.5% barrel rate and a 46.2% hard-hit rate. In an afternoon setting where Lorenzen has posted a 7.65 day-game ERA, McDonald represents a far more stable foundation. Furthermore, Lorenzen’s platoon splits are a massive liability against a left-handed heavy Giants lineup. This season, Lorenzen is yielding a .351 batting average and a 1.026 OPS with 10 home runs to lefties. The Giants are starting six left-handed bats today, including Luis Arraez, who hits .333 against right-handers, and Rafael Devers. Combined with a 6 mph wind blowing out toward right field and Casey Schmitt’s 1.027 day-game OPS, the Giants are built to exploit Lorenzen's weaknesses. While Colorado has put up runs recently, they remain a poor road team at 17-33, making San Francisco's pitching edge at -148 the sharp bet.

Giants ML-148

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78%

MLB4:10 PM

Diamondbacks @ Dodgers

It is a warm, breezy afternoon at Dodger Stadium as the Diamondbacks and Dodgers meet for a high-stakes divisional clash in the series finale. With the sun baking the field and the wind blowing out, this matchup is primed to be decided by which pitching staff can keep the ball on the ground. My read tonight is all about the pitching profiles and the game environment. Dodger Stadium is heating up to 87 degrees with an 8 mph wind blowing out to right field, making it a highly challenging environment for fly-ball pitchers. Emmet Sheehan is exactly that, carrying a fly-ball lean with a 0.67 GO/AO ratio and a 38.5% hard-hit rate allowed. Arizona's bats are locked in, putting up a .362 team xwOBA over the last three games and outscoring the Dodgers 18-5 in this series. Corbin Carroll, who already has a home run in two career at-bats against Sheehan, is well-suited to capitalize on this environment. Conversely, Mitch Bratt gives the Diamondbacks a starting option with a heavy ground-ball profile, holding a 2.00 GO/AO ratio. This plays directly into Arizona’s defensive strength, as they rank second in the majors with 30 Outs Above Average. The bullpen depth seals the deal for me. While Arizona's starter will be on a short leash, their high-leverage arms are incredibly fresh. Paul Sewald is fully rested with 21 saves, and key setup men like Garcia with a 1.90 ERA and Morillo with a 2.97 ERA threw limited pitches yesterday. Meanwhile, the Dodgers' middle-relief bridge is heavily depleted after high-volume workloads over the last 48 hours. Getting a run and a half with the hotter, fresher team that matches up perfectly with today's weather is an excellent position. Take the Diamondbacks on the run line.

Diamondbacks +1.5-115

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85%

MLB4:10 PM

Blue Jays @ Padres

It is a beautiful, sun-drenched afternoon in San Diego as the Toronto Blue Jays wrap up their road trip at Petco Park against the Padres in this compelling series finale. Under the Southern California sun, the starting pitching matchup reveals a stark contrast that makes the visiting Blue Jays a highly attractive bet at this short price. While Kevin Gausman has a modest 4-8 record and a 4.32 ERA, his underlying metrics paint the picture of a much better pitcher, backed by a 3.88 xERA and an elite 9.1 K/9. Gausman is also a notorious daytime specialist, posting a stellar 3.50 ERA in day games compared to a bloated 4.88 ERA under the lights. He faces a highly vulnerable Germán Márquez, who enters with a 5.02 ERA and an even worse 5.62 xERA. Márquez's strikeout numbers have completely cratered, managing just 24 strikeouts in 37.2 innings for a dismal 1.33 K/BB ratio, making him a prime candidate for a rough afternoon. Márquez has been absolutely shredded by left-handed hitters this season, allowing a massive .934 OPS and six home runs in just 75 at-bats. The Blue Jays' starting lineup is brilliantly constructed to exploit this, featuring six left-handed or switch-hitting bats, and will be aided by a breeze blowing directly out to right field. Conversely, the Padres are missing critical pieces of their offense today, with primary catcher Luis Campusano and his elite .966 OPS resting, and Samad Taylor on the injured list. This thins out the bottom half of San Diego's lineup and gives Gausman a much smoother path through the order. Even if Gausman runs into trouble, Toronto's leverage bullpen is anchored by a fully rested Louis Varland, who has been sensational with a 1.10 ERA and 19 saves. San Diego’s bullpen is missing essential high-leverage arms like Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada, which compromises their ability to bridge the gap to closer Mason Miller. In a game where the starting pitching mismatch is heavily tilted toward the visitors and the environmental factors favor the Blue Jays' left-handed heavy lineup, Toronto at -126 is the sharp play to make.

Blue Jays ML-126

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78%

Player props

MLB · Brewers @ Pirates

Esmerlyn Valdez

Esmerlyn Valdez is currently the most dangerous platoon weapon in the Pirates' lineup, and the Brewers' late pitching change to southpaw Robert Gasser creates a massive edge. Valdez is a certified lefty-killer, slashing .345 with a 1.387 OPS against left-handed pitching this season.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-105

· Valdez vs. LHP: .345 AVG / 1.387 OPS / 5 HR in 29 ABs
· Valdez Day Game Split: 1.340 OPS (Season)
· L10 Performance: 4 HR and 14 RBI

MLB HR · Brewers @ Pirates

Esmerlyn Valdez

Esmerlyn Valdez is a situational specialist whose production peaks in exactly this environment. Facing Robert Gasser, a left-handed pitcher who was a late replacement for the scratched Jacob Misiorowski, Valdez enters with a massive .345 average and 1.387 OPS against southpaws this season.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+390

· Splits vs Left: .345 AVG, 1.387 OPS, 5 HR in 29 AB
· Home Splits (PNC Park): .333 AVG, 1.311 OPS, 8 HR in 45 AB
· Day Game Splits: .342 AVG, 1.340 OPS, 7 HR in 38 AB

MLB HR · Brewers @ Pirates

Brandon Lowe

While Brandon Lowe faces a left-on-left matchup against Robert Gasser, his role as the Pirates' primary home run threat (21 HR) makes him a value play at +400. Gasser allows a home run to lefties every 25 at-bats, a rate that isn't restrictive enough to ignore Lowe's 23.6% season home run frequency.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+400

· Season: 21 HR in 89 games (23.6% HR/game rate)
· Last game: 3-for-5 with 3 TB
· Gasser vs LHB: 2 HR allowed in 50 AB (4% rate)

MLB · Royals @ Orioles

Jac Caglianone

Jac Caglianone has been the most consistent source of production in the Royals' lineup recently, clearing this 1.5 line in each of his last five games (2, 4, 2, 2, and 2 H+R+RBI respectively). This consistent floor is built on solid contact, as he has recorded at least one hit in every game over that span.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-124

· Jac Caglianone has cleared 1.5 H+R+RBI in five consecutive games
· Opposing starter Shane Baz allows a .798 OPS to left-handed hitters this season
· Break-even probability: 55.4% (-124)

MLB · Royals @ Orioles

Samuel Basallo

Samuel Basallo is in a prime bounce-back spot today against Seth Lugo, who has been a 'gas can' for left-handed hitters recently. Lugo enters this start in a severe slump, allowing seven home runs and a 6.57 ERA over his last five outings, with lefties batting .302 against him on the season.

OVER 0.5 RBI+138

· Seth Lugo has allowed 7 home runs and a 6.57 ERA over his last five starts
· Lugo allows a .302 AVG and .833 OPS to left-handed hitters this season
· Samuel Basallo has 13 of his 15 home runs against right-handed pitchers

MLB · Yankees @ Nationals

Ben Rice

The Yankees have found an offensive engine in Ben Rice, who is hitting .371 with 6 home runs over his last 10 games. Tonight, he faces Cade Cavalli, a right-hander whose production is heavily skewed by platoon splits; Cavalli is allowing a .297 average and .802 OPS to left-handed hitters this season. Rice, a left-handed bat with elite recent power, is perfectly positioned to exploit this.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-159

· .371 AVG and 6 HR in last 10 games
· Cade Cavalli allowing .297 AVG and .802 OPS to LHB
· Nationals bullpen fatigue score: 77 (MLB high)

MLB · Yankees @ Nationals

James Wood

James Wood is currently on a historic run, batting .459 with 6 home runs and 13 RBIs over his last 10 games. He has cleared the 1.5 hits_runs_rbis line in each of his last five contests, driven by an elite combination of contact and power. Today he faces Will Warren, who has struggled more against lefties (.265 AVG, .771 OPS) than righties.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-152

· .459 AVG and 6 HR in last 10 games
· Will Warren allowing .265 AVG and .771 OPS to LHB
· Yankees bullpen fatigue score: 68 (4th highest in MLB)

MLB · Red Sox @ Mets

Wilyer Abreu

Wilyer Abreu is a statistical anomaly as a left-handed hitter who significantly prefers same-side matchups, punishing southpaws to the tune of a .355 average and near-1.000 OPS. He faces Mets rookie Zach Thornton, whose 4.35 ERA is a mirage masking a 5.41 xERA and a concerning habit of allowing loud contact (51.7% hard-hit rate). Abreu slots into the three-hole for a Red Sox team currently on a league-best eight-game win streak, ensuring he will see high-volume opportunities to drive in runs or score himself. Given Thornton's vulnerability to barrels and Abreu's elite contact quality against lefties, the over on this 1.5 threshold is the strongest play on the board.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-110

· Wilyer Abreu vs LHP: .355 AVG / .973 OPS (Season)
· Zach Thornton (LHP): 51.7% Hard-hit rate allowed / 10.3% Barrel rate (Season)
· Red Sox recent form: 8-game winning streak / 4.1 runs per game (Season)

MLB · Red Sox @ Mets

Juan Soto

Juan Soto remains the most disciplined hitter in baseball, and getting plus-money on him to record a single walk is an edge that cannot be ignored. Facing rookie southpaw Payton Tolle for the first time, Soto's legendary strike-zone awareness is likely to force the young pitcher into deep counts. Tolle is a strikeout-heavy pitcher (9.0 K/9) who isn't afraid to challenge hitters, but Soto's ability to lay off high-velocity offerings (Tolle averages 96 mph) often results in free passes when pitchers fear his .980 OPS. With the Mets' offense struggling, Soto will be looking for his pitch, and if Tolle doesn't provide it, the walk is the most probable outcome for at least one of his 4-5 plate appearances.

OVER 0.5 Walks+112

· Juan Soto vs LHP: .283 AVG / .836 OPS (Season)
· Soto recent discipline: 5 walks in last 10 games (including 3-BB and 2-BB outings)
· Payton Tolle (Rookie SP): 24 BB in 80.1 IP (First career meeting vs Soto)

MLB · Cubs @ Reds

Elly De La Cruz

My read on this matchup begins with the massive statistical advantage Elly De La Cruz holds when facing left-handed pitching. De La Cruz is a switch-hitter who will bat from the right side today against Matthew Boyd. This season, De La Cruz is mauling lefties to the tune of a .326 batting average and a staggering 1.081 OPS.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-131

· Elly De La Cruz vs LHP: .326 AVG / 1.081 OPS
· Elly De La Cruz at Home: .327 AVG / 1.003 OPS
· Matthew Boyd vs RHB: .287 AVG allowed

MLB · Guardians @ Marlins

Otto Lopez

Otto Lopez is currently the most productive bat in the Marlins' lineup, and today's matchup against southpaw Joey Cantillo plays directly into his primary statistical edge. Lopez is slashing a remarkable .430 against left-handed pitching this season, a split that makes him nearly impossible to keep off the basepaths when facing lefties.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-128

· Otto Lopez .430 AVG / 1.074 OPS vs LHP in 2026
· Lopez 16-for-42 (.381) with 8 RBI in last 10 games
· Odds -128 require >56.1% win probability

MLB · Guardians @ Marlins

Brayan Rocchio

The Guardians' offense gets a favorable setup against Tyler Phillips, who is pitching on significantly shortened rest (three days) and is expected to be on a limited pitch count. Phillips has shown extreme volatility recently, surrendering 13 earned runs over two of his last five starts, and his 1.36 season WHIP indicates he frequently works with runners on base.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-110

· Tyler Phillips starting on just 3 days' rest with a 'short leash'
· Brayan Rocchio .292 AVG vs RHP this season
· Odds -110 require >52.4% win probability

MLB · Phillies @ Tigers

Kyle Schwarber

The market typically prices a left-on-left matchup as a significant hurdle for the hitter, but the underlying data for this specific pairing suggests the opposite. Tigers starter Tarik Skubal has been surprisingly vulnerable to left-handed bats this season, surrendering a .281 batting average—a metric significantly higher than the .198 AVG he allows to righties.

OVER 0.5 Hits-148

· Tarik Skubal allows .281 AVG to LHB (vs .198 to RHB)
· Kyle Schwarber hitting .275 with .967 OPS vs LHP in 2026
· Break-even win probability: 59.7%

MLB · Mariners @ Rays

Jonathan Aranda

Jonathan Aranda has been the engine of the Rays' offense lately, recording multi-hit games in four straight outings and totaling 10 hits in that span. He bats second in a lineup that is dominant at home (35-14) and faces Emerson Hancock, a pitcher whose surface ERA masks underlying vulnerability. Hancock allows a massive 43.6% hard-hit rate and works predominantly in the air, which plays directly into the hitting conditions at Tropicana Field. Aranda has cleared this 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs threshold in four consecutive games, and given his lefty-vs-righty advantage against a pitcher due for negative regression, he should have multiple opportunities to drive in runs or score himself behind a high-OBP leadoff hitter like Yandy Diaz.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-127

· Jonathan Aranda 10 hits over his last four games (including two 3-hit games)
· Emerson Hancock 4.33 xERA vs 3.23 ERA (significant regression candidate)
· Hancock allows a 43.6% hard-hit rate and 0.77 GO/AO (Fly-ball pitcher)

MLB · Angels @ Twins

Ryan Jeffers

Ryan Jeffers is currently the offensive engine for the Twins, slashing .324 over his last 10 games and coming off a massive three-hit performance yesterday. He draws a favorable matchup against José Soriano, who has struggled with his command and run prevention recently, posting a 4.88 ERA and a 4.3 BB/9 on the season. Jeffers' ability to drive the ball is elite against right-handers (.941 OPS), and Soriano's recent vulnerability to the walk increases Jeffers' floor for Runs Scored. Combined with 90-degree heat and an 11-mph wind blowing out to the power alleys, Jeffers is in a prime position to clear this total through multiple avenues.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-130

· Ryan Jeffers: .324 AVG with 3 HR over last 10 games (3-for-4 yesterday)
· José Soriano: 4.88 ERA and 11 BB allowed over last 24.0 IP (5 starts)
· Jeffers vs RHP: .941 OPS and 6 HR this season

MLB · Angels @ Twins

Mike Trout

Mike Trout has silenced any lingering injury concerns by launching four home runs over his last 10 games, signaling that his elite power is fully back. He faces Taj Bradley, a pitcher who—despite his high strikeout rate—is an extreme fly-ball pitcher (0.62 GO/AO) who allows a high 10% barrel rate.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-118

· Mike Trout: 4 HR and .862 OPS over last 10 games played
· Taj Bradley: 0.62 GO/AO (extreme fly-ball tendency) and 10% barrel rate allowed
· Environment: 90F temperature and 11 mph wind blowing out toward LF/LCF

MLB · Athletics @ White Sox

Joshua Kuroda-Grauer

Joshua Kuroda-Grauer has been the lone bright spot in the Athletics' lineup during their current eight-game skid, maintaining a staggering .439 average since his promotion. He faces left-hander Noah Schultz, who enters with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP, providing a high-traffic environment for a contact hitter like Kuroda-Grauer. Schultz has been particularly vulnerable to right-handed hitters, allowing a .831 OPS, while Kuroda-Grauer has feasted on lefties to the tune of a .438 average. Batting second ensures the volume of plate appearances needed to clear this floor, and with Schultz allowing 22 hits in his last 22.2 innings, the opportunity for Kuroda-Grauer to reach base and be driven in is significant.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-132

· 0.439 season batting average
· 0.405 AVG over last 10 games (15-for-37)
· 57% break-even probability at -132 odds

MLB · Athletics @ White Sox

Munetaka Murakami

Munetaka Murakami's elite plate discipline is evident in his .921 season OPS, which stands in sharp contrast to his .236 batting average, indicating a high walk-to-hit ratio. He faces J.T.

OVER 0.5 Walks-115

· 0.921 season OPS with 20 home runs
· Walked in 3 of last 5 games since returning from IL
· 53.5% break-even probability at -115 odds

MLB · Braves @ Cardinals

Jordan Walker

Jordan Walker is the hottest hitter in the Cardinals lineup right now, entering today on a five-game hitting streak where he has averaged 3.0 Hits+Runs+RBIs per game. He has cleared this 1.5 line in five consecutive outings.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-116

· Jordan Walker L10 AVG: .324
· Jordan Walker Hits+Runs+RBIs L5: 1, 2, 5, 5, 2 (5/5 cleared line)
· JR Ritchie Season ERA: 4.60

MLB · Braves @ Cardinals

Michael Harris II

While the Braves' offense has been stagnant in this series, Michael Harris II remains a consistent outlier, hitting .340 over his last 10 games. He matches up against Dustin May, a high-velocity right-hander who has struggled significantly with left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .297 average and .800 OPS to the platoon. Harris II is hitting .313 against righties and has cleared 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in three of his last five games. With May failing to complete five innings in three straight starts due to efficiency issues, Harris II should see multiple looks at both a laboring starter and a middle relief unit that was heavily used in yesterday's doubleheader.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-114

· Michael Harris II L10 AVG: .340
· Dustin May vs Left-Handed Batters: .297 AVG allowed
· Michael Harris II Season AVG vs RHP: .313

MLB · Astros @ Rangers

Wyatt Langford

Wyatt Langford is in the midst of a significant power surge, hitting .341 with 4 home runs and 11 RBIs over his last 10 games. Today he gets a premium matchup against Cristian Javier, who has been historically vulnerable to right-handed hitting this season, surrendering a .375 average and a 1.337 OPS to the side. Javier's primary pitch, the four-seam fastball, is being hammered for a .429 average, and his extreme fly-ball tendency (0.47 GO/AO) plays right into Langford's current power profile. Batting second in the Rangers' order ensures Langford will see the maximum number of plate appearances to clear this combined threshold.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-120

· Javier vs RHB: .375 AVG / 1.337 OPS allowed
· Langford L10: .341 AVG, 4 HR, 11 RBI
· Javier 4-Seam Fastball: .429 Opp BA / .448 xwOBA

MLB · Rockies @ Giants

Mickey Moniak

Mickey Moniak enters this series finale as the hottest hitter in the Rockies' lineup, slashing .389 with three home runs over his last 10 games. He has cleared this 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs line in six of those 10 contests, including his last four straight.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-123

· Mickey Moniak: .389 AVG and 3 HR in his last 10 games
· Trevor McDonald: .318 AVG and .904 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters in 2026
· Break-even probability: 55.2%

MLB · Rockies @ Giants

Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez is the prototypical 'hit machine,' and tonight he faces a pitcher who is currently a beacon for contact. Michael Lorenzen's 1.78 WHIP and .351 batting average allowed to left-handed hitters are among the most targetable vulnerabilities on today's slate.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+100

· Luis Arraez: 119 hits in 90 games (.332 season AVG) in 2026
· Michael Lorenzen: .351 AVG and 1.78 WHIP allowed to left-handed hitters in 2026
· Break-even probability: 50.0%

MLB · Diamondbacks @ Dodgers

Gabriel Moreno

Moreno is the hottest hitter in this matchup, entering today with a .395 average over his last 10 games. He has been a multi-hit machine, clearing this 1.5 line on hits alone in four of his last five starts. He faces Emmet Sheehan, who has struggled significantly with contact quality, posting a 6.16 ERA over his last five outings and allowing a nearly 10% barrel rate.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI+100

· L10: .395 AVG (15-for-38) with 5 RBIs
· Last 5 Games: Recorded multi-hit performances in 4 of 5 games
· Split: Batting .313 with an .848 OPS against right-handed pitching this season

MLB · Blue Jays @ Padres

Jackson Merrill

Jackson Merrill has emerged as the most reliable engine in the San Diego offense, carrying a .308 average over his last 10 games and finding his power stroke with two home runs in his last five starts. Batting second in the order ensures Merrill receives a high volume of plate appearances, maximizing his opportunities to clear the 1.5 total base threshold.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+135

· .308 AVG over last 10 games (12-for-39)
· 2 HR in last 5 games played
· Batting 2nd in order (average 4+ PA per game)

MLB HR · Diamondbacks @ Dodgers

Ketel Marte

Ketel Marte represents the strongest power-matchup play on the board today. He faces Emmet Sheehan, a right-hander whose statistical profile is a target for power hitters.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+350

· Break-even probability: 22.2%
· Emmet Sheehan allows 1.75 HR/9 (15 HR in 77.0 IP)
· Sheehan GO/AO: 0.67 (Heavy fly-ball tendency)

MLB HR · Diamondbacks @ Dodgers

Teoscar Hernandez

Teoscar Hernandez is in a prime bounce-back spot facing an inexperienced rookie left-hander. Mitch Bratt is making just his second career MLB start, and while his sample size is small, he allowed a 50% hard-hit rate in his debut.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+330

· Break-even probability: 23.3%
· Mitch Bratt allowed 50% hard-hit rate in debut
· Bratt career MLB IP: 3.0

Hub research

142

starter_team_recordMIL @ PIT
Pirates 1-7 in Paul Skenes's last 8 starts
Pirates are 1-7 in Paul Skenes's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
bullpen_fatigueNYY @ WSH
Washington Nationals pen: 15.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Washington Nationals's bullpen has thrown 15.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 5 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
platoon_edgeTOR @ SD
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 2nd against German Marquez (RHP)
Over 164 AB vs. Right, Nathan Lukes owns a .812 OPS versus .319 in 31 AB the other way. He sees RHP German Marquez tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB
bullpen_fatigueTOR @ SD
San Diego Padres pen: 16 relief IP over their last 3 games
San Diego Padres's bullpen has thrown 16 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
streakingHOU @ TEX
TEX games have gone OVER 6 straight
Texas Rangers games have gone OVER 6 straight — 11.5 runs a night against an average line of 7.8. Tonight's number sits at 8.5.
P final total 11 vs 8.5
heat_checkNYY @ WSH
James Wood: 1.484 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (48 PA) he is at a 1.484 OPS, up 0.511 on his .973 season mark. He has 27 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-2, 4 TB, 2 BB
cooling_offARI @ LAD
Corbin Carroll: .402 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Emmet Sheehan
Corbin Carroll's .402 OPS over the last 15 days (50 PA) trails his .834 season mark, down 0.432. Tonight he draws RHP Emmet Sheehan — his weaker side: a .740 OPS vs RHP across 234 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
platoon_edgeOAK @ CHW
Sam Antonacci (bats L) hits 1st against J.T. Ginn (RHP)
Over 201 AB vs. Right, Sam Antonacci owns a .866 OPS versus .511 in 56 AB the other way. He sees RHP J.T. Ginn tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
platoon_edgeCOL @ SF
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Mickey Moniak's vs. Right line (.990 OPS, 166 AB) sits well above his .603 mark the other way (39 AB). Tonight's starter Trevor McDonald throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
platoon_edgeCHC @ CIN
Spencer Steer (bats R) draws Matthew Boyd (LHP), batting 3rd
Spencer Steer carries a 1.053 OPS vs. Left (75 AB) against .648 the other way (236 AB), and faces LHP Matthew Boyd from the 3rd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
heat_checkNYY @ WSH
Luis Garcia Jr.: 1.296 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 53 PA: a 1.296 OPS versus .875 for the season, 0.421 above his norm. He has 20 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
gary_hr_threatsBrewers @ Pirates
Esmerlyn Valdez
Esmerlyn Valdez is a situational specialist whose production peaks in exactly this environment. Facing Robert Gasser, a left-handed pitcher who was a late replacement for the scratched Jacob Misiorowski, Valdez enters with a massive .345 average and 1.387 OPS against southpaws this season.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkCOL @ SF
Rafael Devers: 1.270 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 48 PA: a 1.270 OPS versus .804 for the season, 0.466 above his norm. He has 19 home runs on the season.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeCLE @ MIA
Travis Bazzana (bats L) hits 1st against Tyler Phillips (RHP)
Over 156 AB vs. Right, Travis Bazzana owns a .836 OPS versus .514 in 85 AB the other way. He sees RHP Tyler Phillips tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offTOR @ SD
Daulton Varsho: .295 OPS in L15 — draws RHP German Marquez
Daulton Varsho's .295 OPS over the last 15 days (43 PA) trails his .698 season mark, down 0.403. Tonight he draws RHP German Marquez — his weaker side: a .683 OPS vs RHP across 211 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
gary_hr_threatsYankees @ Nationals
Ben Rice
Cade Cavalli serves as a dream matchup for the Yankees’ top left-handed power threat. Cavalli is struggling mightily against left-handed bats this season, surrendering a .297 AVG and .802 OPS compared to a much sturdier .224 against righties.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 3 TB
starter_team_recordTOR @ SD
Blue Jays 2-6 in Kevin Gausman's last 8 starts
Blue Jays are 2-6 in Kevin Gausman's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 5 in a row. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordCOL @ SF
Giants 2-6 in Trevor McDonald's last 8 starts
Giants are 2-6 in Trevor McDonald's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordOAK @ CHW
White Sox 2-6 in Noah Schultz's last 8 starts
White Sox are 2-6 in Noah Schultz's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 4 in a row. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordPHI @ DET
Phillies 6-2 in Zack Wheeler's last 8 starts
Phillies are 6-2 in Zack Wheeler's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 5 in a row. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordCHC @ CIN
Cubs 6-2 in Matthew Boyd's last 8 starts
Cubs are 6-2 in Matthew Boyd's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 4 in a row. He starts tonight.
platoon_edgeMIL @ PIT
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Brice Turang's vs. Right line (.916 OPS, 253 AB) sits well above his .568 mark the other way (101 AB). Tonight's starter Paul Skenes throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkCOL @ SF
Kyle Karros: 1.184 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (52 PA) he is at a 1.184 OPS, up 0.375 on his .809 season mark. He has 9 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
starter_formKC @ BAL
Seth Lugo: 9.39 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (15.3 IP) he has been tagged for 16 earned runs — a 9.39 ERA with a 1.89 WHIP (1.43 season) against a 4.56 season mark.
P 4 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
ballpark_shiftTOR @ SD
German Marquez owns a 7.50 ERA at Petco Park — 2.75 everywhere else
Across 4 games (18 IP) at Petco Park, German Marquez has a 7.50 ERA against 2.75 at his other parks (19.7 IP). Hitters bat .290 off him here.
P 4 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
platoon_edgeCOL @ SF
Rafael Devers (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Rafael Devers's vs. Right line (.935 OPS, 239 AB) sits well above his .546 mark the other way (123 AB). Tonight's starter Michael Lorenzen throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
gary_hr_threatsYankees @ Nationals
James Wood
James Wood is the most dangerous hitter in this park right now, and his home dominance provides a significant edge. Wood’s OPS jumps to 1.040 at Nationals Park, where he has launched 17 of his 27 home runs this season.
P 1 HR — 1-for-2, 4 TB, 2 BB
platoon_edgeKC @ BAL
Vinnie Pasquantino (bats L) hits 5th against Shane Baz (RHP)
Over 181 AB vs. Right, Vinnie Pasquantino owns a .759 OPS versus .401 in 76 AB the other way. He sees RHP Shane Baz tonight hitting 5th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
platoon_edgeBOS @ NYM
Wilyer Abreu (bats L) draws Zach Thornton (LHP), batting 3rd
Wilyer Abreu carries a .973 OPS vs. Left (107 AB) against .676 the other way (242 AB), and faces LHP Zach Thornton from the 3rd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
platoon_edgeCLE @ MIA
Gabriel Arias (bats R) gets a RHP from the 6th spot
Gabriel Arias's vs. Right line (.861 OPS, 57 AB) sits well above his .436 mark the other way (31 AB). Tonight's starter Tyler Phillips throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
bullpen_fatigueNYY @ WSH
New York Yankees pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
New York Yankees's bullpen has thrown 13 innings across their last 3 games, with 5 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
head_to_headHOU @ TEX
Astros are 6-3 vs Rangers this season
Astros lead the season series 6-3 over Rangers. HOU won the last meeting 9-3.
head_to_headARI @ LAD
Dodgers are 7-4 vs Diamondbacks this season
Dodgers lead the season series 7-4 over Diamondbacks. ARI took the last meeting 9-2 — a revenge spot.
head_to_headATL @ STL
Cardinals are 4-1 vs Braves this season
Cardinals lead the season series 4-1 over Braves. STL won the last meeting 4-1.
head_to_headOAK @ CHW
White Sox are 6-3 vs Athletics this season
White Sox lead the season series 6-3 over Athletics. CHW won the last meeting 1-0.
head_to_headKC @ BAL
Orioles are 4-1 vs Royals this season
Orioles lead the season series 4-1 over Royals. BAL won the last meeting 6-1.
head_to_headMIL @ PIT
Pirates are 4-1 vs Brewers this season
Pirates lead the season series 4-1 over Brewers. PIT won the last meeting 3-2.
running_gameMIL @ PIT
Milwaukee Brewers like to run — Henry Davis (54% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Henry Davis owns a 54% caught-stealing rate (13 of 24) and Milwaukee Brewers run anyway — 0.9 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 0 bases
platoon_edgeNYY @ WSH
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Luis Garcia Jr.'s vs. Right line (.910 OPS, 262 AB) sits well above his .635 mark the other way (39 AB). Tonight's starter Will Warren throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
gary_hr_threatsBrewers @ Pirates
Brandon Lowe
While Brandon Lowe faces a left-on-left matchup against Robert Gasser, his role as the Pirates' primary home run threat (21 HR) makes him a value play at +400. Gasser allows a home run to lefties every 25 at-bats, a rate that isn't restrictive enough to ignore Lowe's 23.6% season home run frequency.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB
starter_formMIL @ PIT
Paul Skenes: 7.80 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 7.80 ERA over his last 15 innings with a 1.67 WHIP (1.04 season) — the 3.58 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
rest_fatigueNYY @ WSH
WSH's bullpen has covered 15.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 15.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Zack Littell (4) and Miles Mikolas (4). NYY's pen has thrown 13 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 5-3
platoon_edgeKC @ BAL
Samuel Basallo (bats L) draws Seth Lugo (RHP), batting 5th
Samuel Basallo carries a .853 OPS vs. Right (197 AB) against .532 the other way (72 AB), and faces RHP Seth Lugo from the 5th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
cooling_offNYY @ WSH
Cody Bellinger: .430 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Cade Cavalli
Cody Bellinger's .430 OPS over the last 15 days (52 PA) trails his .757 season mark, down 0.327. Tonight he draws RHP Cade Cavalli — his stronger side: a .761 OPS vs RHP across 223 AB.
P 2-for-3, 3 TB, 1 BB
rest_fatigueOAK @ CHW
15.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for OAK
Relievers have absorbed 15.3 innings over the last 3 games (Jack Perkins (3) and Luis Medina (3) the heaviest). CHW's pen has thrown 13.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 1-9
cooling_offCOL @ SF
Jung Hoo Lee: .424 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael Lorenzen
Jung Hoo Lee's .424 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .771 season mark, down 0.347. Tonight he draws RHP Michael Lorenzen — his stronger side: a .781 OPS vs RHP across 232 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
tournamentTO LIFT THE CUP
France head the title market at +140
France are the market's outright World Cup favourite at +140. England (+310) and Spain (+320) are the next shortest.
platoon_edgeSEA @ TB
Jonathan Aranda (bats L) hits 2nd against Emerson Hancock (RHP)
Over 240 AB vs. Right, Jonathan Aranda owns a .923 OPS versus .690 in 97 AB the other way. He sees RHP Emerson Hancock tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB
heat_checkCLE @ MIA
Heriberto Hernandez: 1.171 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.171 OPS spans the last 15 days (40 PA) against a .799 season baseline, a 0.372 swing. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
starter_formNYY @ WSH
Will Warren: 7.80 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 15 innings, 13 earned runs, 19 hits. That 7.80 ERA runs 3.65 over his 4.15 season number.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
heat_checkMIL @ PIT
Garrett Mitchell: 1.119 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (48 PA) he is at a 1.119 OPS, up 0.296 on his .823 season mark. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
gary_hr_threatsDiamondbacks @ Dodgers
Ketel Marte
Ketel Marte represents the strongest power-matchup play on the board today. He faces Emmet Sheehan, a right-hander whose statistical profile is a target for power hitters.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
heat_checkLAA @ MIN
Josh Bell: 1.013 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 49 PA: a 1.013 OPS versus .740 for the season, 0.273 above his norm. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
streakingMIL @ PIT
PIT games have gone UNDER 4 straight
The under has cashed 4 in a row in PIT games: 9 combined runs per game vs lines averaging 13.9. Tonight's number sits at 7.5.
P final total 19 vs 7.5
heat_checkMIL @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez: 1.346 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 53 PA: a 1.346 OPS versus 1.092 for the season, 0.254 above his norm. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offLAA @ MIN
Logan O'Hoppe: .261 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Taj Bradley
Logan O'Hoppe's .261 OPS over the last 15 days (34 PA) trails his .587 season mark, down 0.326. Tonight he draws RHP Taj Bradley — his weaker side: a .556 OPS vs RHP across 152 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
rest_fatigueSEA @ TB
TB's bullpen has covered 14.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 14.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Cam Booser (3.7) and Casey Legumina (3). SEA's pen has thrown 7.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 8-2
cooling_offOAK @ CHW
Henry Bolte: .388 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Noah Schultz
Henry Bolte's .388 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .701 season mark, down 0.313. Tonight he draws LHP Noah Schultz — his stronger side: a .780 OPS vs LHP across 62 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
rest_fatigueMIL @ PIT
PIT's pen has logged 14.3 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 14.3 innings out of the pen — Yohan Ramirez (3) and Carmen Mlodzinski (3) carried the load. MIL's pen has thrown 10.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 5-14
cooling_offSEA @ TB
J.P. Crawford: .453 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Ian Seymour
J.P. Crawford's .453 OPS over the last 15 days (52 PA) trails his .674 season mark, down 0.221. Tonight he draws LHP Ian Seymour — his weaker side: a .591 OPS vs LHP across 74 AB.
P 3-for-4, 5 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offATL @ STL
Alec Burleson: .579 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Danny Young
Alec Burleson's .579 OPS over the last 15 days (51 PA) trails his .801 season mark, down 0.222. Tonight he draws LHP Danny Young — his weaker side: a .488 OPS vs LHP across 110 AB.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
ownedTOR @ SD
Fernando Tatis Jr. vs Kevin Gausman: .400
Fernando Tatis Jr. has gone 8-for-20 (.400) across 20 career at-bats off Kevin Gausman, with 2 HR. They meet again tonight. He enters steady (.732 OPS, L15).
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
bullpen_fatigueMIL @ PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates pen: 14.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Pittsburgh Pirates's bullpen has thrown 14.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
bullpen_fatigueBOS @ NYM
Boston Red Sox pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Boston Red Sox's bullpen has thrown 13 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
bullpen_fatigueSEA @ TB
Tampa Bay Rays pen: 14.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Tampa Bay Rays's bullpen has thrown 14.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
starter_formHOU @ TEX
MacKenzie Gore: 7.94 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (17 IP) he has been tagged for 15 earned runs — a 7.94 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP (1.31 season) against a 4.72 season mark.
P 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
cooling_offSEA @ TB
Yandy Diaz: .619 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Emerson Hancock
Yandy Diaz's .619 OPS over the last 15 days (51 PA) trails his .887 season mark, down 0.268. Tonight he draws RHP Emerson Hancock — his stronger side: a .899 OPS vs RHP across 249 AB.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
heat_checkCLE @ MIA
Otto Lopez: 1.108 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (56 PA) he is at a 1.108 OPS, up 0.223 on his .885 season mark. He has 9 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
heat_checkKC @ BAL
Isaac Collins: 1.072 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (33 PA) he is at a 1.072 OPS, up 0.368 on his .704 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-4, 3 TB
starter_formCOL @ SF
Michael Lorenzen: 3.38 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 16 innings, 6 earned runs, 7 Ks. That 3.38 ERA sits 3.08 runs under his 6.46 season number.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
fantasy_pickupsHOU @ TEX
Josh Jung
Jung hits in the heart of the order and carries a strong .806 OPS into a favorable matchup. Facing a pitcher with a 6.98 xERA, Jung is positioned to drive in runs and maintain his high .294 average. Stream him tonight in 12-teamers.
starter_formLAA @ MIN
Jose Soriano: 6.43 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 6.43 ERA over his last 14 innings with a 1.36 WHIP (1.28 season) — the 3.40 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
ballpark_shiftSEA @ TB
Ian Seymour's ERA drops to 3.05 at Tropicana Field
Ian Seymour carries a 3.05 ERA over 18 games (38.3 IP) at Tropicana Field vs 5.87 across 23 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .165 off him here.
P 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
cooling_offHOU @ TEX
Jake Burger: .518 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Cristian Javier
Jake Burger's .518 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .731 season mark, down 0.213. Tonight he draws RHP Cristian Javier — his weaker side: a .700 OPS vs RHP across 266 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offPHI @ DET
Bryce Harper: .671 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Tarik Skubal
Bryce Harper's .671 OPS over the last 15 days (50 PA) trails his .869 season mark, down 0.198. Tonight he draws LHP Tarik Skubal — his weaker side: a .648 OPS vs LHP across 129 AB.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
regression_watchPHI @ DET
Edmundo Sosa: .221 AVG vs .291 xBA
Edmundo Sosa's .221 average comes against a .291 expected (xBA) on 158 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .272 against a .342 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
regression_watchMIL @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez: .311 AVG vs .243 xBA
Esmerlyn Valdez's .311 average comes against a .243 expected (xBA) on 100 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .453 against a .380 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offCLE @ MIA
Travis Bazzana: .495 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Tyler Phillips
Travis Bazzana's .495 OPS over the last 15 days (53 PA) trails his .723 season mark, down 0.228. Tonight he draws RHP Tyler Phillips — his stronger side: a .836 OPS vs RHP across 156 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
fantasy_pickupsHOU @ TEX
Ezequiel Duran
Duran provides solid production from the six-hole with a .761 OPS and a reliable .272 batting average. Facing a struggling starter with a 6.98 xERA offers a high-upside opportunity for Duran to capitalize on a pitcher in a tailspin. Stream him tonight in 12-teamers.
cooling_offKC @ BAL
Jac Caglianone: .545 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Shane Baz
Jac Caglianone's .545 OPS over the last 15 days (51 PA) trails his .785 season mark, down 0.24. Tonight he draws RHP Shane Baz — his stronger side: a .820 OPS vs RHP across 216 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
starter_formOAK @ CHW
Noah Schultz: 8.78 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 8.78 ERA over his last 13.3 innings with a 1.73 WHIP (1.42 season) — the 6.00 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
rest_fatigueATL @ STL
13 bullpen innings in 3 games for STL
Relievers have absorbed 13 innings over the last 3 games (George Soriano (2.3) and Luis Gastelum (2) the heaviest). ATL's pen has thrown 13 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 4-3
first_inningSEA @ TB
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of SEA @ TB
TB games have seen a first-inning run in just 3 of their last 10; SEA games in 0 of 10. That is 17 clean opening frames between them.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
heat_checkSEA @ TB
Chandler Simpson: .883 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (46 PA) he is at a .883 OPS, up 0.222 on his .661 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
tournamentPATH TO THE FINAL
England are the market's pick to reach the final from the other half
Behind the outright favourite, England carry the shortest price to reach the final at -135 — the side the market most expects to come through the other half of the bracket.
fantasy_pickupsHOU @ TEX
Brandon Nimmo
Batting cleanup gives Nimmo plenty of RBI chances against a pitcher whose 6.98 xERA indicates he is giving up significant hard contact. Nimmo’s .744 OPS and .258 average make him a dependable option to exploit this vulnerable matchup. Stream him tonight in 12-teamers.
cooling_offCHC @ CIN
Ian Happ: .567 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Andrew Abbott
Ian Happ's .567 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .763 season mark, down 0.196. Tonight he draws LHP Andrew Abbott — his weaker side: a .559 OPS vs LHP across 103 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
bullpen_fatigueARI @ LAD
Los Angeles Dodgers pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Los Angeles Dodgers's bullpen has thrown 13.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
rest_fatigueBOS @ NYM
BOS's pen has logged 13 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 13 innings out of the pen — Tyron Guerrero (2.7) and Garrett Whitlock (2) carried the load. NYM's pen has thrown 9.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 3-2
bullpen_fatigueATL @ STL
St. Louis Cardinals pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
St. Louis Cardinals's bullpen has thrown 13 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
fantasy_pickupsHOU @ TEX
Jake Burger
Burger slotting in at fifth puts him in a prime position to attack an opponent sporting a 6.98 xERA. His .731 OPS is sufficient to take advantage of a struggling starter who is prone to giving up runs. Stream him tonight in 12-teamers.
regression_watchBOS @ NYM
Francisco Lindor: .208 AVG vs .260 xBA
Francisco Lindor is hitting .208 against a .260 expected average (xBA) over 167 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .285 against a .342 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB
platoon_edgePHI @ DET
Dillon Dingler (bats R) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Dillon Dingler's vs. Right line (.884 OPS, 225 AB) sits well above his .740 mark the other way (96 AB). Tonight's starter Zack Wheeler throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
cooling_offMIL @ PIT
Jackson Chourio: .697 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Paul Skenes
Jackson Chourio's .697 OPS over the last 15 days (62 PA) trails his .831 season mark, down 0.134. Tonight he draws RHP Paul Skenes — his weaker side: a .803 OPS vs RHP across 185 AB.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
ballpark_shiftATL @ STL
Dustin May owns a 3.59 ERA at Busch Stadium — 5.94 everywhere else
Across 9 games (52.7 IP) at Busch Stadium, Dustin May has a 3.59 ERA against 5.94 at his other parks (36.3 IP). Hitters bat .241 off him here.
P 4 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
regression_watchCOL @ SF
Mickey Moniak: .283 AVG vs .232 xBA
Mickey Moniak's .283 average comes against a .232 expected (xBA) on 223 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .387 against a .316 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
regression_watchMIL @ PIT
Jake Mangum: .311 AVG vs .261 xBA
Across 248 plate appearances, Jake Mangum carries a .311 average versus a .261 xBA. His wOBA sits at .332 against a .290 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
rest_fatigueARI @ LAD
12.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for LAD
Relievers have absorbed 12.3 innings over the last 3 games (Jack Dreyer (2.7) and Evan Phillips (2) the heaviest). ARI's pen has thrown 8.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 5-3
park_weatherLAA @ MIN
Wind blowing out 11 mph at Target Field tonight
Tonight's reading at Target Field — Sunny, 90°, wind 11 mph, Out To LF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 8.5.
P final total 6 vs 8.5 (over lean)
regression_watchCHC @ CIN
Nico Hoerner: .235 AVG vs .285 xBA
Nico Hoerner is hitting .235 against a .285 expected average (xBA) over 416 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .287 against a .319 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
heat_checkPHI @ DET
Riley Greene: 1.044 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 45 PA: a 1.044 OPS versus .846 for the season, 0.198 above his norm. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
rest_fatigueTOR @ SD
12 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
Relievers have absorbed 12 innings over the last 3 games (Jhony Brito (2.7) and Ron Marinaccio (2) the heaviest). TOR's pen has thrown 10.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 4-5
regression_watchCOL @ SF
TJ Rumfield: .298 AVG vs .251 xBA
TJ Rumfield's .298 average comes against a .251 expected (xBA) on 380 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .377 against a .323 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offPHI @ DET
Dillon Dingler: .614 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Zack Wheeler
Dillon Dingler's .614 OPS over the last 15 days (41 PA) trails his .841 season mark, down 0.227. Tonight he draws RHP Zack Wheeler — his stronger side: a .884 OPS vs RHP across 225 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
heat_checkSEA @ TB
Junior Caminero: 1.085 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.085 OPS spans the last 15 days (54 PA) against a .933 season baseline, a 0.152 swing. He has 28 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
regression_watchCLE @ MIA
Tyler Phillips: 3.28 ERA vs 4.8 xERA
Tyler Phillips carries a 3.28 ERA against a 4.8 expected ERA (1.52 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .239 off him vs a .262 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
xg_regressionARG @ ENG
Argentina are finishing above their chances
Argentina are scoring 2.8/match on 2.2 xG — 0.7 goals/match above expected across 6 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
regression_watchCLE @ MIA
Otto Lopez: .339 AVG vs .294 xBA
Otto Lopez is hitting .339 against a .294 expected average (xBA) over 405 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .380 against a .339 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
platoon_edgeSEA @ TB
Chandler Simpson (bats L) draws Emerson Hancock (RHP), batting 5th
Chandler Simpson carries a .709 OPS vs. Right (228 AB) against .549 the other way (98 AB), and faces RHP Emerson Hancock from the 5th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
cooling_offKC @ BAL
Leody Taveras: .352 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Seth Lugo
Leody Taveras's .352 OPS over the last 15 days (27 PA) trails his .661 season mark, down 0.309. Tonight he draws RHP Seth Lugo — his stronger side: a .733 OPS vs RHP across 171 AB.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
regression_watchCOL @ SF
Trevor McDonald: 5.46 ERA vs 4.04 xERA
Trevor McDonald carries a 5.46 ERA against a 4.04 expected ERA (1.42 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .266 off him vs a .251 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
heat_checkCHC @ CIN
Sal Stewart: .943 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 58 PA: a .943 OPS versus .811 for the season, 0.132 above his norm. He has 19 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
ballparkW10 @ W10
W101 vs W102: afternoon heat at MetLife Stadium
An open-air 3pm local kickoff at MetLife Stadium — open-air in an exposed Meadowlands bowl. Conditioning is tested when matches are played in the afternoon sun.
starter_formCOL @ SF
Trevor McDonald: 7.24 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 7.24 ERA over his last 13.7 innings with a 1.54 WHIP (1.38 season) — the 5.46 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
running_gameBOS @ NYM
Boston Red Sox like to run — Luis Torrens (42% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Boston Red Sox attempt 1 steals a game, but Luis Torrens has cut down 14 of 33 runners (42%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Boston Red Sox stole 0 bases
platoon_edgePHI @ DET
Riley Greene (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Riley Greene's vs. Right line (.887 OPS, 238 AB) sits well above his .752 mark the other way (102 AB). Tonight's starter Zack Wheeler throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
tournamentSUREST TO ADVANCE
Côte d'Ivoire are the surest bet to advance
Côte d'Ivoire are -10000 to escape their group out of Group E — the shortest to-advance price on the board.
xg_recapMAR @ FRA
France created the better chances
France led the xG 3.1–0.1 and took the result to match (2–0).
xg_regressionESP @ FRA
France are finishing above their chances
France are scoring 2.7/match on 2.2 xG — 0.5 goals/match above expected across 6 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
heat_checkCHC @ CIN
Tyler Stephenson: .938 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 30 PA: a .938 OPS versus .692 for the season, 0.246 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
heat_checkKC @ BAL
Salvador Perez: .730 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (44 PA) he is at a .730 OPS, up 0.139 on his .591 season mark. He has 11 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
fantasy_pickupsBOS @ NYM
Payton Tolle
Streamer vs NYM — 3.07 xERA · 9 K/9 · 1.07 WHIP.
ballpark_shiftPHI @ DET
Tarik Skubal owns a 3.99 ERA at Comerica Park — 2.40 everywhere else
Across 5 games (29.3 IP) at Comerica Park, Tarik Skubal has a 3.99 ERA against 2.40 at his other parks (41.3 IP). Hitters bat .227 off him here.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
regression_watchSEA @ TB
Emerson Hancock: 3.23 ERA vs 4.33 xERA
Emerson Hancock carries a 3.23 ERA against a 4.33 expected ERA (1.11 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .212 off him vs a .252 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
ballpark_shiftCHC @ CIN
At Great American Ball Park, Andrew Abbott pitches to a 4.72 ERA
Andrew Abbott at Great American Ball Park: 4.72 ERA over 47.7 innings (9G) — 3.21 on a 53.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .262 off him here.
P 4 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
fantasy_pickupsKC @ BAL
Blaze Alexander
Pickup vs Seth Lugo (5.41 xERA) — .791 OPS, bats 6th.
ballpark_shiftMIL @ PIT
At PNC Park, Paul Skenes pitches to a 3.02 ERA
Paul Skenes at PNC Park: 3.02 ERA over 62.7 innings (11G) — 4.46 on a 40.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .214 off him here.
P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
running_gameSEA @ TB
Green light: Tampa Bay Rays run, and Mitch Garver has caught just 13%
Tampa Bay Rays steal 1 bags a game (89 on the season) and Mitch Garver has thrown out 4 of 31 runners (13%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
P Tampa Bay Rays stole 0 bases
fantasy_pickupsKC @ BAL
Samuel Basallo
Pickup vs Seth Lugo (5.41 xERA) — .768 OPS, bats 5th.
running_gameCLE @ MIA
Miami Marlins like to run — Patrick Bailey (34% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Patrick Bailey owns a 34% caught-stealing rate (17 of 50) and Miami Marlins run anyway — 1.1 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Miami Marlins stole 0 bases
tournamentGROUP STAGE
The eight best third-place sides advance
In the 48-team format the eight best third-place finishers reach the Round of 32 — a single win across the group stage can be enough to advance.
first_inningHOU @ TEX
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of HOU @ TEX
Both sides keep scoring early — a 1st-inning run in 7 of 10 for TEX and 7 of 10 for HOU games lately.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
fantasy_pickupsKC @ BAL
Taylor Ward
Pickup vs Seth Lugo (5.41 xERA) — .745 OPS, bats 2nd.
fantasy_pickupsMIL @ PIT
Robert Gasser
Streamer vs PIT — 3.43 xERA · 8.3 K/9 · 1.18 WHIP.
running_gameOAK @ CHW
Chicago White Sox like to run — Shea Langeliers (36% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Chicago White Sox attempt 0.9 steals a game, but Shea Langeliers has cut down 16 of 45 runners (36%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Chicago White Sox stole 0 bases
first_inningMIL @ PIT
MIL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Milwaukee Brewers have scored in the first inning just 0 times in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
ballparkESP @ FRA
France vs Spain: indoors at AT&T Stadium
AT&T Stadium is a retractable-roof venue — retractable roof with air conditioning. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
ballparkARG @ ENG
England vs Argentina: indoors at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Mercedes-Benz Stadium is a closed-roof venue — closed roof with air conditioning. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
fantasy_pickupsTOR @ SD
Kevin Gausman
Streamer vs SD — 3.88 xERA · 9.1 K/9 · 1.22 WHIP.
fantasy_pickupsATL @ STL
Dustin May
Streamer vs ATL — 3.77 xERA · 8.6 K/9 · 1.25 WHIP.
first_inningCLE @ MIA
CLE have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Cleveland Guardians have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st
first_inningPHI @ DET
PHI have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Philadelphia Phillies have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

Graded results

Games

L
Brewers ML +110
MLB · 5-14
W
Red Sox ML -110
MLB · 3-2
W
Phillies ML +114
MLB · 5-0
W
Yankees ML -102
MLB · 5-3
W
Guardians ML -106
MLB · 5-2
L
Rays ML -142
MLB · 8-2
L
Reds ML +108
MLB · 8-4
W
White Sox ML -144
MLB · 1-9
W
Orioles ML -148
MLB · 2-8
W
Twins ML -132
MLB · 2-4
L
Blue Jays ML -126
MLB · 4-5
W
Diamondbacks +1.5 -115
MLB · 5-3
W
Braves ML +110
MLB · 4-3
L
Astros ML +118
MLB · 5-6
W
Giants ML -148
MLB · 1-3

Props

W
Ben Rice · over
Yankees @ Nationals · Actual 3
L
Brandon Lowe · over
Brewers @ Pirates · Actual 0
W
Brayan Rocchio · over
Guardians @ Marlins · Actual 6
W
Elly De La Cruz · over
Cubs @ Reds · Actual 2
L
Esmerlyn Valdez · over
Brewers @ Pirates · Actual 0
W
Esmerlyn Valdez · over
Brewers @ Pirates · Actual 4
W
Gabriel Moreno · over
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers · Actual 2
L
Jac Caglianone · over
Royals @ Orioles · Actual 1
L
Jackson Merrill · over
Blue Jays @ Padres · Actual 0
W
James Wood · over
Yankees @ Nationals · Actual 3
W
Jonathan Aranda · over
Mariners @ Rays · Actual 4
W
Jordan Walker · over
Braves @ Cardinals · Actual 3
L
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer · over
Athletics @ White Sox · Actual 1
L
Juan Soto · over
Red Sox @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Ketel Marte · over
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers · Actual 0
W
Kyle Schwarber · over
Phillies @ Tigers · Actual 2
L
Luis Arraez · over
Rockies @ Giants · Actual 0
L
Michael Harris II · over
Braves @ Cardinals · Actual 0
L
Mickey Moniak · over
Rockies @ Giants · Actual 0
W
Mike Trout · over
Angels @ Twins · Actual 2
W
Munetaka Murakami · over
Athletics @ White Sox · Actual 1
L
Otto Lopez · over
Guardians @ Marlins · Actual 0
W
Ryan Jeffers · over
Angels @ Twins · Actual 3
W
Samuel Basallo · over
Royals @ Orioles · Actual 1
L
Teoscar Hernandez · over
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers · Actual 0
L
Wilyer Abreu · over
Red Sox @ Mets · Actual 0
W
Wyatt Langford · over
Astros @ Rangers · Actual 2