Cubs at Reds
O/U 14.5 · RL Cubs -3.5 · Great American Ball Park
Reds ML+108
CONF 72%
LLostFinal 8-4
The read
It is a warm, humid Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati as the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds lock horns in a decisive rubber match at Great American Ball Park. With both teams seeking to claim the series, this afternoon clash centers on a pair of left-handers navigating a high-total environment.
My read tonight is on the Cincinnati Reds at a strong plus-money price of +108. The deciding factor is how perfectly this Reds lineup is constructed to exploit Cubs starter Matthew Boyd. Boyd has glaring platoon splits, holding left-handers to a microscopic .435 OPS but allowing a .287 average and .814 OPS to right-handed bats. The Reds counter with a lineup featuring six righties and two switch-hitters, most notably Elly De La Cruz. De La Cruz has been a force against lefties, rocking a massive 1.081 OPS and eight home runs in 89 at-bats, and he matches up seamlessly against Boyd's heavy diet of four-seamers and changeups. Furthermore, the Reds' bats are red-hot, posting a stellar .405 xwOBA and 9.3% barrel rate over their last three games, which spells trouble for Boyd and his high 50% hard-hit rate in GABP's humid air.
While some might lean toward Chicago due to Andrew Abbott's expected regression—his 3.92 ERA is lower than his 4.77 xERA—the Cubs do not have the current offensive juice to exploit it. Chicago's lineup has fallen into a severe power slump, sputtering to an anemic 1.5% barrel rate and a mere 24.2% hard-hit rate over their last three games. Abbott has been particularly tough on right-handed hitters, holding them to a .240 batting average, which will help him neutralize key righty bats. Abbott is also highly effective in day games, carrying a 3.66 ERA, and he should have enough leash to navigate a cold Cubs lineup.
While Cincinnati’s bullpen was taxed on Saturday, the recall of fresh arm Chase Petty provides crucial middle-relief length. In a game where the Reds’ offense is poised to jump out to an early lead against Boyd, the bullpen’s fatigue becomes much less of a deciding factor. Getting the Reds as home underdogs at +108 in a matchup where their offense holds such a distinct, structural advantage is simply too much value to pass up. Put your money on the Reds to take the series.
Injuries noted
Reds: [KNOWN] Graham Ashcraft (RP) — Elbow (Right): Ashcraft is expected to resume throwing soon after receiving good news Tuesday regarding the imaging on his injured right elbow UCL, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 30 — 11d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): Williamson (shoulder) injured his finger while working out, and his rehab program has been pushed back by about 10 days as a result, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 28 — 13d ago) [KNOWN] Blake Dunn (CF) — Elbow (Right): Dunn (elbow) hoped to resume baseball activity Saturday but was not ready, MLB.com reports. (Jul 5 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Tony Santillan (RP) — Oblique (Left): Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI on Santillan's left oblique showed a significant strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 26 — 15d ago) [KNOWN] Dane Myers (CF) — Shoulder (Left): Myers received an injection in the AC joint of his left shoulder Saturday, MLB.com reports. (Jul 5 — 7d ago) [NEW] Matt McLain (2B) — Calf (Not Specified): The Reds placed McLain on the 10-day injured list with a strained calf, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jul 10 — 2d ago) [NEW] Nick Lodolo (SP) — Finger (Left): Lodolo (finger) will likely require a stint on the injured list, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports. (Jul 12 — 0d ago) Cubs: [KNOWN] Porter Hodge (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 65d ago) [KNOWN] Cade Horton (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 65d ago) [KNOWN] Matt Shaw (RF) — Hand (Left): Shaw (hand) won't be activated from the injured list until after the All-Star break, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports. (Jul 4 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Daniel Palencia (RP) — Elbow (Right): Palencia (elbow) is progressing in his rehab from elbow tendinitis, but he won't be activated from the injured list until after the All-Star break, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports. (Jun 27 — 14d ago) [KNOWN] Hoby Milner (RP) — Abdomen (Not Specified): Milner (abdomen) will be sidelined 4-to-6 weeks after undergoing emergency appendectomy surgery on Friday, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports. (Jun 27 — 14d ago) [KNOWN] Jameson Taillon (SP) — Hamstring (Left): Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Tuesday that Taillon (hamstring) is expected to make another rehab start before returning from the 15-day injured list, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports. (Jul 7 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Ben Brown (RP) — Neck (Not Specified): Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Thursday that Brown has been diagnosed with a stress reaction in his neck and will have limited activity for the next month, 104.3 The Score reports. (Jun 25 — 16d ago) [KNOWN] Edward Cabrera (SP) — Hamstring (Left): Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Cabrera (hamstring) resumed a throwing program this weekend, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports. (Jul 6 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Riley Martin (RP) — Elbow (Left): The Cubs announced June 10 that Martin (elbow) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports. (Jun 21 — 20d ago) [KNOWN] Hunter Harvey (Relief Pitcher) — Triceps (Right): The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday. (May 17 — 55d ago) [KNOWN] Ethan Roberts (RP) — Forearm (Right): The Cubs placed Roberts on the 15-day injured list Monday due to right forearm inflammation. (Jun 29 — 12d ago)
Props on this game
1Elly De La CruzOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-131
WActual 2
My read on this matchup begins with the massive statistical advantage Elly De La Cruz holds when facing left-handed pitching. De La Cruz is a switch-hitter who will bat from the right side today against Matthew Boyd. This season, De La Cruz is mauling lefties to the tune of a .326 batting average and a staggering 1.081 OPS.
This production aligns perfectly with his home-field comfort at Great American Ball Park, where he hits .327 with a 1.003 OPS, nearly 100 points higher than his season average. Boyd enters the game with significant vulnerabilities against right-handed bats, surrendering a .287 average and a .814 OPS to the platoon. Batting leadoff, De La Cruz will see the maximum number of plate appearances to capitalize on these splits.
Given his recent form of .308 over his last 10 games and the Reds' need to snap a skid, I expect the focal point of their offense to clear this multi-category line early.
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