MLB · Sun, Jul 12 · 1:40 PM

Cubs at Reds

O/U 14.5 · RL Cubs -3.5 · Great American Ball Park

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Cubs· +108

It is a warm, humid Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati as the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds lock horns in a decisive rubber match at Great American Ball Park. With both teams seeking to claim the series, this afternoon clash centers on a pair of left-handers navigating a high-total environment. My read tonight is on the Cincinnati Reds at a strong plus-money price of +108. The deciding factor is how perfectly this Reds lineup is constructed to exploit Cubs starter Matthew Boyd. Boyd has glaring platoon splits, holding left-handers to a microscopic .435 OPS but allowing a .287 average and .814 OPS to right-handed bats. The Reds counter with a lineup featuring six righties and two switch-hitters, most notably Elly De La Cruz. De La Cruz has been a force against lefties, rocking a massive 1.081 OPS and eight home runs in 89 at-bats, and he matches up seamlessly against Boyd's heavy diet of four-seamers and changeups. Furthermore, the Reds' bats are red-hot, posting a stellar .405 xwOBA and 9.3% barrel rate over their last three games, which spells trouble for Boyd and his high 50% hard-hit rate in GABP's humid air. While some might lean toward Chicago due to Andrew Abbott's expected regression—his 3.92 ERA is lower than his 4.77 xERA—the Cubs do not have the current offensive juice to exploit it. Chicago's lineup has fallen into a severe power slump, sputtering to an anemic 1.5% barrel rate and a mere 24.2% hard-hit rate over their last three games. Abbott has been particularly tough on right-handed hitters, holding them to a .240 batting average, which will help him neutralize key righty bats. Abbott is also highly effective in day games, carrying a 3.66 ERA, and he should have enough leash to navigate a cold Cubs lineup. While Cincinnati’s bullpen was taxed on Saturday, the recall of fresh arm Chase Petty provides crucial middle-relief length. In a game where the Reds’ offense is poised to jump out to an early lead against Boyd, the bullpen’s fatigue becomes much less of a deciding factor. Getting the Reds as home underdogs at +108 in a matchup where their offense holds such a distinct, structural advantage is simply too much value to pass up. Put your money on the Reds to take the series.

My read tonight is on the Cincinnati Reds at a strong plus-money price of +108. The deciding factor is how perfectly this Reds lineup is constructed to exploit Cubs starter Matthew Boyd. Boyd has glaring platoon splits, holding left-handers to a microscopic .435 OPS but allowing a .287 average and .814 OPS to right-handed bats. The Reds counter with a lineup featuring six righties and two switch-hitters, most notably Elly De La Cruz. De La Cruz has been a force against lefties, rocking a massive 1.081 OPS and eight home runs in 89 at-bats, and he matches up seamlessly against Boyd's heavy diet of four-seamers and changeups. Furthermore, the Reds' bats are red-hot, posting a stellar .405 xwOBA and 9.3% barrel rate over their last three games, which spells trouble for Boyd and his high 50% hard-hit rate in GABP's humid air.

While some might lean toward Chicago due to Andrew Abbott's expected regression—his 3.92 ERA is lower than his 4.77 xERA—the Cubs do not have the current offensive juice to exploit it. Chicago's lineup has fallen into a severe power slump, sputtering to an anemic 1.5% barrel rate and a mere 24.2% hard-hit rate over their last three games. Abbott has been particularly tough on right-handed hitters, holding them to a .240 batting average, which will help him neutralize key righty bats. Abbott is also highly effective in day games, carrying a 3.66 ERA, and he should have enough leash to navigate a cold Cubs lineup.

While Cincinnati’s bullpen was taxed on Saturday, the recall of fresh arm Chase Petty provides crucial middle-relief length. In a game where the Reds’ offense is poised to jump out to an early lead against Boyd, the bullpen’s fatigue becomes much less of a deciding factor. Getting the Reds as home underdogs at +108 in a matchup where their offense holds such a distinct, structural advantage is simply too much value to pass up. Put your money on the Reds to take the series.

The pick & result

Published pick: Reds ML +108
Published odds: +108
Result: Lost
Final score: 8-4

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Reds: [KNOWN] Graham Ashcraft (RP) — Elbow (Right): Ashcraft is expected to resume throwing soon after receiving good news Tuesday regarding the imaging on his injured right elbow UCL, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 30 — 11d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): Williamson (shoulder) injured his finger while working out, and his rehab program has been pushed back by about 10 days as a result, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 28 — 13d ago) [KNOWN] Blake Dunn (CF) — Elbow (Right): Dunn (elbow) hoped to resume baseball activity Saturday but was not ready, MLB.com reports. (Jul 5 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Tony Santillan (RP) — Oblique (Left): Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI on Santillan's left oblique showed a significant strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 26 — 15d ago) [KNOWN] Dane Myers (CF) — Shoulder (Left): Myers received an injection in the AC joint of his left shoulder Saturday, MLB.com reports. (Jul 5 — 7d ago) [NEW] Matt McLain (2B) — Calf (Not Specified): The Reds placed McLain on the 10-day injured list with a strained calf, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jul 10 — 2d ago) [NEW] Nick Lodolo (SP) — Finger (Left): Lodolo (finger) will likely require a stint on the injured list, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports. (Jul 12 — 0d ago) Cubs: [KNOWN] Porter Hodge (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 65d ago) [KNOWN] Cade Horton (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 65d ago) [KNOWN] Matt Shaw (RF) — Hand (Left): Shaw (hand) won't be activated from the injured list until after the All-Star break, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports. (Jul 4 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Daniel Palencia (RP) — Elbow (Right): Palencia (elbow) is progressing in his rehab from elbow tendinitis, but he won't be activated from the injured list until after the All-Star break, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports. (Jun 27 — 14d ago) [KNOWN] Hoby Milner (RP) — Abdomen (Not Specified): Milner (abdomen) will be sidelined 4-to-6 weeks after undergoing emergency appendectomy surgery on Friday, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports. (Jun 27 — 14d ago) [KNOWN] Jameson Taillon (SP) — Hamstring (Left): Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Tuesday that Taillon (hamstring) is expected to make another rehab start before returning from the 15-day injured list, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports. (Jul 7 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Ben Brown (RP) — Neck (Not Specified): Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Thursday that Brown has been diagnosed with a stress reaction in his neck and will have limited activity for the next month, 104.3 The Score reports. (Jun 25 — 16d ago) [KNOWN] Edward Cabrera (SP) — Hamstring (Left): Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Cabrera (hamstring) resumed a throwing program this weekend, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports. (Jul 6 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Riley Martin (RP) — Elbow (Left): The Cubs announced June 10 that Martin (elbow) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports. (Jun 21 — 20d ago) [KNOWN] Hunter Harvey (Relief Pitcher) — Triceps (Right): The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday. (May 17 — 55d ago) [KNOWN] Ethan Roberts (RP) — Forearm (Right): The Cubs placed Roberts on the 15-day injured list Monday due to right forearm inflammation. (Jun 29 — 12d ago)

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

PLATOON EDGE

Spencer Steer (bats R) draws Matthew Boyd (LHP), batting 3rd
1.053
Spencer Steer carries a 1.053 OPS vs. Left (75 AB) against .648 the other way (236 AB), and faces LHP Matthew Boyd from the 3rd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.

HEAT CHECK

Sal Stewart: .943 OPS in Last 15 Days
.943
The last 15 days sample runs 58 PA: a .943 OPS versus .811 for the season, 0.132 above his norm. He has 19 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
Tyler Stephenson: .938 OPS in Last 15 Days
.938
The last 15 days sample runs 30 PA: a .938 OPS versus .692 for the season, 0.246 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.

COOLING OFF

Ian Happ: .567 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Andrew Abbott
.567
Ian Happ's .567 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .763 season mark, down 0.196. Tonight he draws LHP Andrew Abbott — his weaker side: a .559 OPS vs LHP across 103 AB.

BALLPARK

At Great American Ball Park, Andrew Abbott pitches to a 4.72 ERA
4.72
Andrew Abbott at Great American Ball Park: 4.72 ERA over 47.7 innings (9G) — 3.21 on a 53.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .262 off him here.

TEAM RECORD

Cubs 6-2 in Matthew Boyd's last 8 starts
6-2
Cubs are 6-2 in Matthew Boyd's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 4 in a row. He starts tonight.

REGRESSION

Nico Hoerner: .235 AVG vs .285 xBA
.285
Nico Hoerner is hitting .235 against a .285 expected average (xBA) over 416 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .287 against a .319 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored July 12, 2026 at 10:49 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, caesars, betmgm, betrivers, fanatics.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
ELLY DE LA CRUZH+R+RBI OVER 1.5
MLBReds· -131
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 2
My read on this matchup begins with the massive statistical advantage Elly De La Cruz holds when facing left-handed pitching. De La Cruz is a switch-hitter who will bat from the right side today against Matthew Boyd. This season, De La Cruz is mauling lefties to the tune of a .326 batting average and a staggering 1.081 OPS. This production aligns perfectly with his home-field comfort at Great American Ball Park, where he hits .327 with a 1.003 OPS, nearly 100 points higher than his season average. Boyd enters the game with significant vulnerabilities against right-handed bats, surrendering a .287 average and a .814 OPS to the platoon. Batting leadoff, De La Cruz will see the maximum number of plate appearances to capitalize on these splits. Given his recent form of .308 over his last 10 games and the Reds' need to snap a skid, I expect the focal point of their offense to clear this multi-category line early.
Elly De La Cruz
H+R+RBI over 1.5
-131 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2
Reds
My read on this matchup begins with the massive statistical advantage Elly De La Cruz holds when facing left-handed pitching. De La Cruz is a switch-hitter who will bat from the right side today against Matthew Boyd. This season, De La Cruz is mauling lefties to the tune of a .326 batting average and a staggering 1.081 OPS.
This production aligns perfectly with his home-field comfort at Great American Ball Park, where he hits .327 with a 1.003 OPS, nearly 100 points higher than his season average. Boyd enters the game with significant vulnerabilities against right-handed bats, surrendering a .287 average and a .814 OPS to the platoon. Batting leadoff, De La Cruz will see the maximum number of plate appearances to capitalize on these splits.
Given his recent form of .308 over his last 10 games and the Reds' need to snap a skid, I expect the focal point of their offense to clear this multi-category line early.

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