MLB · Sun, Jul 12 · 12:15 PM

Brewers at Pirates

O/U 13.5 · RL Pirates -1.5 · PNC Park

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Pirates· +110

It is a warm, beautiful afternoon at PNC Park as the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates face off in a highly anticipated Sunday matchup with massive division implications. The public is laying money on the Pirates because of the late scratch of Milwaukee's scheduled starter, but that has created an absolute gift of a price on the first-place Brewers at +110. While Paul Skenes is a phenomenal talent with a stellar 2.74 xERA on the season, his massive situational split cannot be ignored today: Skenes has been highly vulnerable in day games, posting a 5.87 ERA under the sun compared to a 2.61 ERA at night. Milwaukee's patient lineup holds a low 18.7% team whiff rate to combat Skenes' velocity, and Christian Yelich has hit him well, carrying a .444 average in nine career at-bats. On the other side, Robert Gasser steps into the rotation in excellent recent form, having posted a microscopic 1.82 ERA over his last four starts. Gasser’s season-long 4.15 ERA is due for positive regression, backed by a much stronger 3.43 xERA and a solid 1.18 WHIP. He faces a Pirates lineup that is a fringe .500 team at home (26-24) and holds a weaker overall pitching staff with a 4.31 team ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, compared to the Brewers' elite 3.36 team ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Even with strong platoon threats like Esmerlyn Valdez, who hits .345 against left-handers, Gasser’s recent 1.82 ERA over his last 29.2 innings demonstrates his current efficiency at suppressing opponent scoring. The real difference-maker today lies in the late-inning situations and defensive stability. The Pirates' bullpen is heavily fatigued and enters this game severely depleted, with key setup man Carmen Mlodzinski completely unavailable after throwing 57 pitches yesterday, and closer Gregory Soto highly taxed after throwing 31 pitches over the last three days. Conversely, the Brewers have their elite closer Trevor Megill fully rested with a 3.00 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. When you add the Brewers' defensive superiority—having committed only 39 errors and a .988 fielding percentage compared to the Pirates' 57 errors and catcher Henry Davis's six passed balls behind the plate—Milwaukee holds the statistically superior process to secure the victory in the late frames.

On the other side, Robert Gasser steps into the rotation in excellent recent form, having posted a microscopic 1.82 ERA over his last four starts. Gasser’s season-long 4.15 ERA is due for positive regression, backed by a much stronger 3.43 xERA and a solid 1.18 WHIP. He faces a Pirates lineup that is a fringe .500 team at home (26-24) and holds a weaker overall pitching staff with a 4.31 team ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, compared to the Brewers' elite 3.36 team ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Even with strong platoon threats like Esmerlyn Valdez, who hits .345 against left-handers, Gasser’s recent 1.82 ERA over his last 29.2 innings demonstrates his current efficiency at suppressing opponent scoring.

The real difference-maker today lies in the late-inning situations and defensive stability. The Pirates' bullpen is heavily fatigued and enters this game severely depleted, with key setup man Carmen Mlodzinski completely unavailable after throwing 57 pitches yesterday, and closer Gregory Soto highly taxed after throwing 31 pitches over the last three days. Conversely, the Brewers have their elite closer Trevor Megill fully rested with a 3.00 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. When you add the Brewers' defensive superiority—having committed only 39 errors and a .988 fielding percentage compared to the Pirates' 57 errors and catcher Henry Davis's six passed balls behind the plate—Milwaukee holds the statistically superior process to secure the victory in the late frames.

The pick & result

Published pick: Brewers ML +110
Published odds: +110
Result: Lost
Final score: 5-14

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Pirates: [KNOWN] Oneil Cruz (CF) — Hand (Left): Cruz (hand) has resumed swinging a bat, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports. (Jul 7 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Wilber Dotel (RP) — Lat (Right): Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that Dotel (lat) will make another rehab appearance with a minor-league affiliate Tuesday, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (Jul 6 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Chris Devenski (RP) — Illness (Not Specified): Devenski (illness) was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday. (Jun 7 — 34d ago) [KNOWN] Spencer Horwitz (1B) — Hamstring (Left): Horwitz (hamstring) has begun a running program at the Pirates' spring training complex in Florida, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports. (Jul 7 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Evan Sisk (RP) — Elbow (Left): Sisk was placed on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (Jul 4 — 8d ago) [NEW] Endy Rodriguez (C) — Lower Body (Left): Rodriguez (hip) is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game versus Atlanta. (Jul 8 — 3d ago) [NEW] Konnor Griffin (SS) — Finger (Left): The Pirates transferred Griffin (finger) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports. (Jul 11 — 1d ago) Brewers: [KNOWN] DL Hall (RP) — Pectoral (Left): Hall (pectoral) has progressed to throwing on flat ground from 60-to-75 feet, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports. (Jun 30 — 11d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Lockridge (LF) — Knee (Right): The Brewers transferred Lockridge (knee) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday. (Jul 7 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Brian Fitzpatrick (RP) — Elbow (Left): Fitzpatrick (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery over the past week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (Jul 4 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Carlos Rodriguez (RP) — Shoulder (Right): Rodriguez (shoulder) struck out a batter and allowed three earned runs on two hits and one walk across 1.1 innings Wednesday in a rehab start for the Brewers' rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiiate. (Jul 2 — 9d ago) [KNOWN] Rob Zastryzny (RP) — Shoulder (Left): Zastryzny (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with the Brewers' rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiliate Friday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (Jul 3 — 8d ago) [KNOWN] Angel Zerpa (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Left): The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday. (May 31 — 41d ago) [KNOWN] Joel Kuhnel (RP) — Shoulder (Right): The Brewers placed Kuhnel on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to July 3, due to a right shoulder injury. (Jul 4 — 7d ago) [NEW] Brandon Woodruff (SP) — Shoulder (Right): The Brewers transferred Woodruff (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday. (Jul 12 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] David Hamilton (3B) — Hamstring (Left): The Brewers placed Hamilton on the 10-day injured list Tuesday due to a strained left hamstring. (Jul 7 — 4d ago) [NEW] Kyle Harrison (SP) — Forearm (Left): Harrison said after Wednesday's loss to the Cardinals that he has been dealing with soreness on the outside of his elbow over the past few weeks, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. (Jul 11 — 1d ago) [NEW] Jacob Misiorowski (SP) — Arm (Right): no (Jul 12 — 0d ago)

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

STARTER FORM

Paul Skenes: 7.80 ERA over his last 3 starts
7.80
He is carrying a 7.80 ERA over his last 15 innings with a 1.67 WHIP (1.04 season) — the 3.58 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.

PLATOON EDGE

Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
.916
Brice Turang's vs. Right line (.916 OPS, 253 AB) sits well above his .568 mark the other way (101 AB). Tonight's starter Paul Skenes throws RHP, the hand he hits best.

HEAT CHECK

Garrett Mitchell: 1.119 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.119
Over the last 15 days (48 PA) he is at a 1.119 OPS, up 0.296 on his .823 season mark. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
Esmerlyn Valdez: 1.346 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.346
The last 15 days sample runs 53 PA: a 1.346 OPS versus 1.092 for the season, 0.254 above his norm. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.

COOLING OFF

Jackson Chourio: .697 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Paul Skenes
.697
Jackson Chourio's .697 OPS over the last 15 days (62 PA) trails his .831 season mark, down 0.134. Tonight he draws RHP Paul Skenes — his weaker side: a .803 OPS vs RHP across 185 AB.

HR THREAT

Esmerlyn Valdez
+390
Esmerlyn Valdez is a situational specialist whose production peaks in exactly this environment. Facing Robert Gasser, a left-handed pitcher who was a late replacement for the scratched Jacob Misiorowski, Valdez enters with a massive .345 average and 1.387 OPS against southpaws this season.
Brandon Lowe
+400
While Brandon Lowe faces a left-on-left matchup against Robert Gasser, his role as the Pirates' primary home run threat (21 HR) makes him a value play at +400. Gasser allows a home run to lefties every 25 at-bats, a rate that isn't restrictive enough to ignore Lowe's 23.6% season home run frequency.

BULLPEN

Pittsburgh Pirates pen: 14.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
14.3 IP
Pittsburgh Pirates's bullpen has thrown 14.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.

FIRST INNING

MIL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
0/10
Milwaukee Brewers have scored in the first inning just 0 times in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.

RUNNING GAME

Milwaukee Brewers like to run — Henry Davis (54% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
54% CS
Henry Davis owns a 54% caught-stealing rate (13 of 24) and Milwaukee Brewers run anyway — 0.9 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.

BALLPARK

At PNC Park, Paul Skenes pitches to a 3.02 ERA
3.02
Paul Skenes at PNC Park: 3.02 ERA over 62.7 innings (11G) — 4.46 on a 40.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .214 off him here.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Pirates are 4-1 vs Brewers this season
4-1
Pirates lead the season series 4-1 over Brewers. PIT won the last meeting 3-2.

SITUATIONAL

PIT's pen has logged 14.3 innings across its last 3 games
14.3
3 games, 14.3 innings out of the pen — Yohan Ramirez (3) and Carmen Mlodzinski (3) carried the load. MIL's pen has thrown 10.3 over the same span.

STREAK

PIT games have gone UNDER 4 straight
U4
The under has cashed 4 in a row in PIT games: 9 combined runs per game vs lines averaging 13.9. Tonight's number sits at 7.5.

TEAM RECORD

Pirates 1-7 in Paul Skenes's last 8 starts
1-7
Pirates are 1-7 in Paul Skenes's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.

REGRESSION

Esmerlyn Valdez: .311 AVG vs .243 xBA
.243
Esmerlyn Valdez's .311 average comes against a .243 expected (xBA) on 100 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .453 against a .380 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
Jake Mangum: .311 AVG vs .261 xBA
.261
Across 248 plate appearances, Jake Mangum carries a .311 average versus a .261 xBA. His wOBA sits at .332 against a .290 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.

FANTASY PICKUPS

Robert Gasser
3.43 xERA
Streamer vs PIT — 3.43 xERA · 8.3 K/9 · 1.18 WHIP.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored July 12, 2026 at 10:49 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, fanatics, caesars, betmgm, betrivers.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
ESMERLYN VALDEZH+R+RBI OVER 1.5
MLBPirates· -105
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 4
Esmerlyn Valdez is currently the most dangerous platoon weapon in the Pirates' lineup, and the Brewers' late pitching change to southpaw Robert Gasser creates a massive edge. Valdez is a certified lefty-killer, slashing .345 with a 1.387 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. He is also an outlier in daylight, posting a 1.340 OPS in day games compared to a (still elite) .911 at night. With 14 RBIs and 4 home runs in his last 10 games, he is in peak form. Batting cleanup, he will have ample opportunities to drive in runs or score himself against a starter in Gasser who was pressed into service following a late scratch. A single home run or a multi-hit day clears this line easily.
Esmerlyn Valdez
H+R+RBI over 1.5
-105 · CASHED · ACTUAL 4
Pirates
Esmerlyn Valdez is currently the most dangerous platoon weapon in the Pirates' lineup, and the Brewers' late pitching change to southpaw Robert Gasser creates a massive edge. Valdez is a certified lefty-killer, slashing .345 with a 1.387 OPS against left-handed pitching this season.
He is also an outlier in daylight, posting a 1.340 OPS in day games compared to a (still elite) .911 at night. With 14 RBIs and 4 home runs in his last 10 games, he is in peak form.
Batting cleanup, he will have ample opportunities to drive in runs or score himself against a starter in Gasser who was pressed into service following a late scratch. A single home run or a multi-hit day clears this line easily.
THE LONG SHOT
ESMERLYN VALDEZHR OVER 0.5
MLBPirates· +390
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Esmerlyn Valdez is a situational specialist whose production peaks in exactly this environment. Facing Robert Gasser, a left-handed pitcher who was a late replacement for the scratched Jacob Misiorowski, Valdez enters with a massive .345 average and 1.387 OPS against southpaws this season. His power profile is extreme in day games and at home; 8 of his 10 home runs have come at PNC Park, and 7 of those were during day games. Gasser has shown a vulnerability to the long ball, surrendering 8 home runs in just 43.1 innings this season, with 6 of those coming against right-handed hitters. Valdez’s cleanup role ensures high-leverage plate appearances against a Brewers bullpen that is heavily taxed after a doubleheader yesterday. At +390, the market is underestimating a hitter who is currently averaging one home run every six at-bats against lefties.
Esmerlyn Valdez
HR over 0.5
+390 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Pirates
Esmerlyn Valdez is a situational specialist whose production peaks in exactly this environment. Facing Robert Gasser, a left-handed pitcher who was a late replacement for the scratched Jacob Misiorowski, Valdez enters with a massive .345 average and 1.387 OPS against southpaws this season.
His power profile is extreme in day games and at home; 8 of his 10 home runs have come at PNC Park, and 7 of those were during day games. Gasser has shown a vulnerability to the long ball, surrendering 8 home runs in just 43.1 innings this season, with 6 of those coming against right-handed hitters.
Valdez’s cleanup role ensures high-leverage plate appearances against a Brewers bullpen that is heavily taxed after a doubleheader yesterday. At +390, the market is underestimating a hitter who is currently averaging one home run every six at-bats against lefties.
THE LONG SHOT
BRANDON LOWEHR OVER 0.5
MLBPirates· +400
LOST · ACTUAL 0
While Brandon Lowe faces a left-on-left matchup against Robert Gasser, his role as the Pirates' primary home run threat (21 HR) makes him a value play at +400. Gasser allows a home run to lefties every 25 at-bats, a rate that isn't restrictive enough to ignore Lowe's 23.6% season home run frequency. Lowe is coming off a three-hit performance and bats in the number two hole, maximizing his volume of plate appearances. The deciding factor here is the Brewers' bullpen context; Milwaukee currently has 12 pitchers on the IL and played two games yesterday, meaning Lowe will likely see late-inning at-bats against fatigued relievers or lower-leverage right-handers once Gasser exited. This volume and the depleted state of the Milwaukee staff compensate for the platoon disadvantage early in the game.
Brandon Lowe
HR over 0.5
+400 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Pirates
While Brandon Lowe faces a left-on-left matchup against Robert Gasser, his role as the Pirates' primary home run threat (21 HR) makes him a value play at +400. Gasser allows a home run to lefties every 25 at-bats, a rate that isn't restrictive enough to ignore Lowe's 23.6% season home run frequency.
Lowe is coming off a three-hit performance and bats in the number two hole, maximizing his volume of plate appearances. The deciding factor here is the Brewers' bullpen context; Milwaukee currently has 12 pitchers on the IL and played two games yesterday, meaning Lowe will likely see late-inning at-bats against fatigued relievers or lower-leverage right-handers once Gasser exited.
This volume and the depleted state of the Milwaukee staff compensate for the platoon disadvantage early in the game.

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