Daily archive

2026-07-11

The stored Gary board for Sat, Jul 11. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB12:05 PM

Brewers @ Pirates

An overcast Saturday afternoon at PNC Park sets the stage for a critical NL Central battle as the Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers play the first leg of a split doubleheader. With the threat of afternoon thunderstorms looming, securing an early advantage on the mound is paramount. The pitching matchup heavily favors the home side in Game 1. Braxton Ashcraft has been a rock for Pittsburgh, carrying a 3.24 ERA, a 3.17 xERA, and a tidy 1.10 WHIP over 108.1 innings. Ashcraft is especially dangerous during day games, where he boasts an outstanding 2.63 ERA. He relies on a devastating slider and curveball combination—both holding opponents to a sub-.250 expected weighted on-base average—to keep hitters off balance. Conversely, Milwaukee sends Brandon Sproat to the hill, who has struggled to a 5.13 ERA and a 5.74 ERA in day splits. Sproat's cutter has been a liability, yielding a .348 expected weighted on-base average to opposing batters, which spells trouble against a physical Pirates order. Despite being without some key bats, Pittsburgh's current active lineup has been striking the ball with authority, averaging a 10.7% barrel rate and a .378 expected weighted on-base average over their last three games. Switch-hitting star Bryan Reynolds has been electric at home, batting .319 with a .988 OPS at PNC Park, while Esmerlyn Valdez holds a punishing .444 expected weighted on-base average against four-seamers. The Pirates' offense matches up exceptionally well against Sproat's high-velocity, cutter-heavy mix. With thunderstorms forecasted to move in after 2:00 PM ET, an early lead generated by these hot bats against Sproat is highly likely to stand up. While Milwaukee has the superior overall team record and a top-tier bullpen, the specific circumstances of Game 1 point directly to the Pirates. The Brewers enter without Jackson Chourio in the starting lineup and have generated a more modest 7.9% barrel rate and .334 expected weighted on-base average in recent contests. At a near-even price of -116 on the moneyline, we are getting a premier starting pitcher in his ideal daytime environment facing a volatile opposing starter who struggles on the road and in the light of day. Lay the small price on the home favorite.

Pirates ML-116

CONF

68%

MLB2:10 PM

Angels @ Twins

Target Field is bathed in afternoon sun as the division-hunting Minnesota Twins host the struggling Los Angeles Angels for an intriguing summer showdown. With first pitch scheduled for 2:10 PM ET, this matchup features two starting pitchers on completely opposite trajectories. The starting pitching split is where this game is won or lost. Minnesota's Joe Ryan has been highly reliable this season, carrying a 2.85 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, but he elevates his game to another level in the afternoon, boasting a spectacular 0.98 ERA over 36.2 day-game innings. He matches up perfectly against a right-handed heavy Angels lineup, holding righties to a tiny .579 OPS on the season. Conversely, Angels starter Ryan Johnson has struggled on the road with an 8.10 ERA over 13.1 innings and carries a 13.50 ERA in afternoon starts. While Johnson's recent 1.80 ERA over his last 15.0 innings shows promise, his reliance on a vulnerable sinker that has surrendered a .458 xwOBA is a massive red flag. The Twins are built to exploit this weakness, stacking up to seven left-handed or switch-hitters in their starting lineup to take full advantage of Johnson's struggles against lefties, who hit .288 with an .862 OPS against him. The critical separation in this matchup occurs in the late innings, where the bullpen situation heavily favors the Twins. With Ryan Johnson averaging just 3.5 innings per start this season, the Angels will be forced to dip into their relief core early. This is a recipe for disaster today, as the Angels' bullpen is officially designated as taxed after facing 51 batters over the last three days. Crucially, their elite closer Kirby Yates is completely unavailable after working back-to-back days. On the other side, the Twins' bullpen has been reinforced by the acquisition of Tommy Nance, and their closer Yoendrys Gomez is fully rested and ready to secure the win. Minnesota is fighting for a Wild Card spot and sits just three games back in the AL Central, while the Angels are playing out a lost season with a dismal 17-32 road record. Expect Ryan's daytime dominance and the Twins' fresher bullpen to carry them to a comfortable victory.

Twins ML-172

CONF

82%

MLB2:10 PM

Athletics @ White Sox

Under a brilliant Saturday afternoon sky at Rate Field, the first-place Chicago White Sox look to extend their division lead and keep the pressure on in the AL Central as they host an Oakland Athletics squad searching for answers. The White Sox enter today sitting at 48-45, and they have been absolute powerhouses at home with an elite 29-17 record. On the other hand, the Athletics are in the midst of a structural tailspin at 41-53, carrying a seven-game losing streak and a dismal 1-9 record in their last ten games. What makes this spot particularly brutal for Oakland is the sheer freshness of their lineup's collapse. Within the last forty-eight hours, the Athletics have lost two of their core offensive contributors to the injured list: Zack Gelof and Nick Kurtz. Subtracting these fresh absences leaves the Athletics completely depleted of the power that kept them competitive, forcing them to rely on depth that is simply outclassed here. On the mound, Bryan Hudson takes the hill for Chicago carrying a sparkling 2.25 ERA and an elite 1.16 ERA in his home starts. While his 3.56 xERA suggests he has danced around some danger, he faces an Oakland order with almost no teeth left outside of Shea Langeliers. Meanwhile, Oakland starter Gage Jump faces a massive uphill battle. Jump has really struggled in day starts this year, pitching to a mediocre 4.82 ERA. He is going to have a very difficult time navigating a healthy, dangerous White Sox order that features Miguel Vargas (who boasts a monstrous 1.024 OPS against left-handed pitchers and has crushed fastballs with a .430 xwOBA) and Randal Grichuk (sporting a .907 OPS against lefties). Chicago also welcomed back slugger Munetaka Murakami, who returned to action carrying 20 home runs and a .931 OPS, providing immediate protection and elite length to this lineup. The bullpen disparity tonight is the final nail. After yesterday's 14-1 blowout, Oakland was forced to burn through 6.2 innings of relief work to get through the game. Their bullpen enters today heavily taxed and highly vulnerable. Chicago, conversely, coasted through the blowout and has its high-leverage arms completely rested and ready to secure the late innings. Getting the hot home team in a division race at -124 against a severely compromised opponent that is running on empty in the bullpen and missing multiple key bats to fresh injuries is an absolute gift. The price is far too cheap for the reality on the field today.

White Sox ML-124

CONF

82%

MLB4:05 PM

Yankees @ Nationals

A hot, cloudy afternoon in the nation's capital sets the stage as the Yankees look to secure another win on the road against the Nationals. Cam Schlittler takes the mound for New York, and he has been a complete road warrior this season, carrying an elite 1.04 ERA away from home. While Washington’s left-handed hitters like James Wood and Luis Garcia Jr. have posted strong numbers against right-handed fastballs, Schlittler's overall dominance is hard to ignore, especially when contrasted with Washington’s volatile pitching situation. The Nationals are scheduled to send PJ Poulin to the mound, a pitcher whose 2.83 ERA is masking some major trouble under the hood, as evidenced by a 5.52 xERA and a 1.31 WHIP. When Poulin exits, Washington will likely rely on Miles Mikolas, who has struggled significantly with a 5.78 ERA. This massive starting pitching disparity is amplified by the physical environment and the bullpen dynamics. With temperatures hovering around 88°F and a 9 mph wind blowing out to right field, Nationals Park is primed for offensive output. The Yankees' bats have been locked in, averaging 8.5 runs over their last two games despite the established absences of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Ben Rice, who boasts a stellar 1.046 OPS and 21 home runs against right-handed pitchers, is primed to exploit a high-contact bulk pitcher like Mikolas. Furthermore, the wind blowing out to right field directly favors left-handed pull power, creating a perfect storm for Rice, Cody Bellinger, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. to produce extra-base hits. Once this matchup transitions to the later innings, the Yankees' advantage becomes even more pronounced. New York boasts a highly reliable 3.40 bullpen ERA, whereas Washington's relief corps has struggled to a 5.05 ERA and leads the majors with 26 blown saves. While both teams enter with a 63 fatigue score, the Yankees possess superior depth to navigate a high-scoring environment, while Washington is also missing outfielder Jacob Young due to a hand injury. The combination of Schlittler's brilliance, a fragile Nationals pitching staff, and late-game bullpen execution makes the Yankees on the run line the sharpest bet on the board tonight.

Yankees -1.5-120

CONF

78%

MLB4:05 PM

Rockies @ Giants

An afternoon battle in the Bay takes center stage as the San Francisco Giants look to bounce back against the division-rival Colorado Rockies at Oracle Park. On paper, tonight's starting pitching matchup looks like a battle of struggling arms, but the underlying numbers tell a completely different story. Tyler Mahle takes the hill for the Giants with a 5.70 ERA that is heavily inflated by bad luck, backed by a much stronger 4.13 xERA and a highly comfortable 3.32 ERA at home. More importantly, Mahle is an absolute nightmare for left-handed hitters, holding them to a .236 batting average. This matches up beautifully against a Colorado lineup that is forced to start six left-handed hitters—Jake McCarthy, Mickey Moniak, TJ Rumfield, Troy Johnston, Edouard Julien, and Brett Sullivan—creating a stylistic bottleneck that should neutralize the Rockies' offense from the jump. Conversely, Rockies starter Kyle Freeland is in for a long afternoon. Freeland carries a dismal 7.46 ERA (5.78 xERA) and has been absolutely hammered on the road, where he possesses an 8.62 ERA. His primary vulnerability is his inability to suppress right-handed hitters, who have shelled him for a .320 average and 15 home runs in 272 at-bats. The Giants’ lineup is built to exploit this weakness, featuring dangerous right-handed bats like Heliot Ramos and Casey Schmitt, who both carry a career .375 average and a home run against Freeland. Even left-handed superstar Rafael Devers has crushed Freeland, slugging two home runs in just seven career at-bats against him. With the wind projected to blow out to center field at 8–10 mph, Freeland's 11.2% barrel rate allowed is a massive liability. While the Giants' bullpen is thin and suffered a brutal 9th-inning collapse yesterday, Mahle's ability to handle the left-handed heavy Rockies lineup should allow him to pitch deep and limit the bullpen's exposure. The Giants are highly motivated to rebound after yesterday's 4-3 loss, and the massive starting pitching edge on both sides of the plate makes San Francisco at -146 the smartest bet on the board. We are backing the Giants to take care of business at home and even up the series.

Giants ML-146

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75%

MLB4:10 PM

Red Sox @ Mets

Under the cloudy skies of Queens, the red-hot Boston Red Sox look to extend their impressive road winning streak as they battle the Mets at Citi Field. Boston enters this afternoon's matchup on a commanding seven-game road winning streak, having outscored their opponents 42-12 during this stretch. This outstanding road form is no fluke, as the Red Sox have been a far superior team away from home this season, posting a 27-21 road record. Facing Freddy Peralta, the Red Sox are primed to exploit the Mets starter's glaring platoon vulnerability. Peralta has struggled immensely against left-handed hitters all year, surrendering a massive .814 OPS and 13 home runs. Boston's lineup is perfectly structured to punish this weakness, sending out high-contact lefties like Jarren Duran, Masataka Yoshida, and Wilyer Abreu. The situational advantages swing even further toward Boston when factoring in the critical, fresh injuries impacting both rosters. The Mets' infield has been absolutely decimated over the last 48 hours; shortstop Bo Bichette is out of the lineup with sore legs, and corner threat Mark Vientos was just placed on the 10-day IL with a fractured hand. These late-breaking absences severely cap the ceiling of New York's offense. While the Red Sox are navigating their own fresh absences with Ranger Suarez on the IL and Willson Contreras serving a suspension, they are far better positioned to absorb the blow. Boston starts left-handed rookie Eduardo Rivera, whose high-velocity 95.1 mph fastball and heavy 2.00 GO/AO groundball tendency are beautifully insulated by the Red Sox's elite .987 fielding percentage. Finally, the late-inning pitching dynamics favor the visitors. Boston's bullpen has been highly reliable, posting a stable 3.63 ERA over their last 13 games, and high-leverage closer Aroldis Chapman is fully rested. Conversely, the Mets' bullpen is missing Clay Holmes and was heavily taxed during yesterday's 6-2 series-opening loss, leaving primary arms like A.J. Minter and Cionel Pérez likely unavailable. With a stiff 10-mph wind blowing in from right field suppressing power at Citi Field, this game will be decided by clean defense, bullpen depth, and timely contact. Boston holds the clear edge in all three categories, making them an excellent bet at +124 on the moneyline.

Red Sox ML+124

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68%

MLB4:10 PM

Guardians @ Marlins

Under the closed roof of loanDepot park, the Miami Marlins look to even the series against the Cleveland Guardians in a Saturday afternoon clash that features a highly anticipated pitching matchup. This is a spot where the starting pitching mismatch and a severe bullpen availability deficit for Cleveland make the home team a very strong play. Eury Pérez takes the mound for Miami, boasting an elite 98.2 mph fastball that presents a massive challenge for a Guardians lineup that lacks high-end barrel rates against high-velocity heat. Pérez has been absolutely dominant against left-handed hitters this season, holding them to a .201 batting average and a .650 OPS. With Cleveland starting six left-handed hitters and two switch-hitters today, Pérez is poised to dominate the platoon matchups and keep the Guardians' offense quiet. On the other side, Tanner Bibee is in line for some serious regression. While he carries a respectable 4.06 ERA, his 4.77 xERA and a large gap between his .305 opponent wOBA and .336 xwOBA suggest he has been incredibly fortunate. Bibee relies heavily on his Cutter and Sinker, but those pitches are highly vulnerable with xwOBAs of .407 and .367, respectively. That is a recipe for disaster against Miami's hot bats. Otto Lopez (.458 xwOBA against the four-seam, .451 against the sinker) and Xavier Edwards (.392 batting average against the four-seam) match up perfectly to exploit Bibee’s specific pitch mix, especially in a friendly home environment where Miami has gone 31-18 this season. The real difference-maker tonight, however, is the state of the bullpens. Cleveland's high-leverage relief corps is completely running on empty after yesterday's narrow 3-2 victory. Closer Cade Smith, who leads the league with 28 saves, and top setup man Hunter Gaddis have both thrown on three consecutive days from July 8 to July 10, rendering them unavailable today. Compounding this, the Guardians recently lost lefty specialist Tim Herrin to a left elbow injury on July 9. With Cleveland’s back-end depleted, any late-inning lead for Miami is safe in the hands of a fully rested Pete Fairbanks and Michael Petersen, who haven't thrown since July 8. Grab the Marlins on the moneyline at -158.

Miami Marlins ML-158

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78%

MLB4:10 PM

Mariners @ Rays

It is a Saturday afternoon clash at Tropicana Field under the dome, where the Tampa Bay Rays look to keep their home-turf dominance rolling while the Seattle Mariners call upon their undisputed ace to snap a painful four-game slide. When a team is on a cold stretch, a sharp bettor looks for the ultimate circuit breaker, and we have that tonight in Logan Gilbert. The Mariners' starter is putting together a masterpiece season with a 3.19 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP, backed by an elite 1.73 ERA on the road (41.2 IP) and a 2.49 ERA in day starts, compared to Jax's 3.98 ERA at home (31.2 IP) and a 3.75 ERA in day starts. He faces Griffin Jax, who enters with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. However, the real story lies in the expected metrics: Gilbert’s xERA is a sustainable 3.62, while Jax’s xERA is an incredibly volatile 5.1. Jax has been playing on borrowed time all season, and his limited durability—averaging only 5.2 innings per start over his last five outings compared to Gilbert's average of 6.7 innings—means Tampa Bay will have to lean on its bullpen much earlier. The pitching disparity is too vast to ignore, even with the stark contrast in these teams' situational records. The Rays are an exceptional 34-14 at home, while the Mariners are just 20-28 on the road. The public looks at Seattle's active four-game skid and Tampa's 55-37 overall record (6-4 in their last ten) compared to Seattle's 47-48 overall record (5-5 in their last ten) and backs the home favorite. But baseball is a game of daily matchups. While some Rays hitters have success against Gilbert's pitches—like Yandy Diaz hitting .409 against sliders and Junior Caminero hitting .358 against high-velocity fastballs—Seattle counters with direct head-to-head success against Jax. J.P. Crawford and Randy Arozarena hold career averages of .444 (over 9 at-bats) and .500 (with a home run in 6 at-bats) against him. Defensively, Cal Raleigh acts as a premier deterrent behind the plate, carrying a 47.8% caught-stealing rate that easily outclasses Tampa Bay catcher Nick Fortes' 22.2% rate. At -104, the market is discounting Seattle because of their recent slide and the fresh concussion injury to Julio Rodríguez. But in doing so, they are giving us a near-even money price on a true elite starter against a pitcher whose metrics are screaming for negative regression. I will gladly take the value on the Mariners to ride their ace, silence the Tampa Bay bats, and break their losing streak in a tight, low-scoring battle under the dome.

Mariners ML-104

CONF

68%

WC5:00 PM

England @ Norway

Under the blazing afternoon sun of South Florida, a place in the World Cup Semifinals is on the line as England and Norway lock horns in a high-stakes clash at Miami Stadium. While all eyes are on the superstar battle up front, the real story of this quarterfinal will be written by the grueling heat and the tactical adaptations of two tired squads. The physical conditions in Miami are the ultimate equalizer today. With kickoff scheduled for 5:00 p.m. local time, ambient temperatures will hover around 91°F with a punishing heat index projected between 108°F and 111°F. Norway holds a critical preparation edge, having trained and acclimatized in the local humidity for a full week, while England arrived late from Kansas City. England's high-energy style, which typically relies on a heavy possession share of 62% and a grueling defensive press, will be exceptionally difficult to sustain. As the match wears on, unacclimated legs will fade, heavily favoring the better-prepared Norwegians in the transition game. Furthermore, England's defensive cohesion is under serious duress. Starting center-back Jarell Quansah is suspended, forcing Ezri Konsa into a pressure-cooker environment alongside defenders returning from recent hamstring lay-offs. Complicating matters is England’s extreme yellow card discipline. Key leaders Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane, Declan Rice, and Nico O’Reilly are all one caution away from a semifinal ban. Playing under extreme fatigue while trying to avoid committing tactical fouls will make England's midfield and backline play with a level of caution that Norway's hyper-efficient attack can exploit. Norway is averaging 2.40 goals per match on just 10.33 shots, showing a ruthless efficiency that doesn't require high-volume opportunities to punish opponents. With Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard confirmed fully fit, Norway has the elite transition pieces to hurt England's disrupted backline. In a match where the environmental conditions heavily penalize the favorite's defensive work rate, taking Norway on the standard Asian handicap line is the sharp play.

Norway +0.5-110

CONF

75%

WC5:00 PM

England @ Norway

An oppressive summer heatwave welcomes two European powerhouses to Miami Stadium, where tactical discipline and physical survival will dictate the flow of this World Cup Quarterfinal. With a semifinal berth on the line, expect a cautious, low-risk chess match rather than an expansive shootout. The main story of this match is the weather, with a heat index forecasted at a dangerous 108°F to 111°F. At these extreme levels, executing a high-pressing system is physically impossible over 90 minutes. Both teams will naturally lower their lines, slow down the tempo, and prioritize possession to conserve energy. The mandatory three-minute hydration breaks in each half will also act as natural momentum killers, allowing tired defensive structures to reorganize and catch their breath before any sustained attacking pressure can build. England's tournament run has been defined by defensive organization and game control. They average a high 62% possession rate and allow just 0.83 goals per game on 0.84 xGA, securing three clean sheets in their last six matches. Thomas Tuchel will likely lean heavily into this low-risk, possession-heavy style to protect his defensive depth and shield card-threatened stars like Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane, and Declan Rice from having to track back in desperate, high-speed recovery runs. By keeping the ball and slowing the pace, England will look to choke the life out of the match. While Norway has been highly efficient up front, they average only 10.33 shots per match and will struggle to generate high-volume opportunities against England's disciplined structure. Given their own defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded 1.67 goals per game, Norway cannot afford to trade blows in an open game. The public is heavily backing the Over due to the Golden Boot narrative surrounding Haaland and Kane, inflating the price and giving us outstanding value on Under 2.5 at 120.

Under 2.5+120

CONF

80%

MLB6:10 PM

Phillies @ Tigers

Under clear skies at Comerica Park, the surging Detroit Tigers host the Philadelphia Phillies in a fascinating battle of tactical mismatches and contrasting pitching styles. With Detroit riding a hot streak and Philadelphia looking to rebound, the mound matchup holds the key to how tonight unfolds. Casey Mize has been excellent for Detroit, posting a 2.64 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP over 13 starts, and he enters tonight in peak form with a 2.43 ERA in his last seven outings. His greatest strength is his reverse-platoon dominance, holding left-handed hitters to a tiny .173 batting average and .479 OPS this season. This is a massive tactical advantage against a Phillies lineup built around left-handed power like Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, and Bryson Stott. Comerica Park’s expansive outfield and the 9-to-14 mph wind blowing in from center field perfectly suit Mize’s fly-ball tendencies (0.61 grounders per flyout), giving him a friendly environment to contain Philadelphia's sluggers. Conversely, Cristopher Sánchez is a ground-ball pitcher (1.68 grounders per flyout) who relies heavily on his infield to record outs. That is a glaring issue tonight, as the Phillies' infield defense is one of the worst in baseball, ranking near the bottom with a dismal -40 Defensive Runs Saved. Sánchez is also highly vulnerable to right-handed hitters, allowing a .282 average and .754 OPS against them, and Detroit is sending out six righty bats to exploit this split. On top of that, Sánchez is coming off a rough outing where he yielded a season-high nine earned runs, meaning he is fighting his mechanics while facing a red-hot Detroit team that has won nine of its last ten games. The bullpen situation further tips the scales toward the home side. Detroit's late-inning options are fresh, with Kyle Finnegan (2.13 ERA) and a newly activated Kenley Jansen ready to secure the lead. Meanwhile, Philadelphia's relief corps has been heavily taxed, surrendering ten or more runs in three of their last five games. Taking a surging, well-rested Tigers squad in their own park at a plus-money price of +120 is the sharp play on tonight's board.

Tigers ML+120

CONF

78%

MLB7:05 PM

Royals @ Orioles

Under the humid, partially cloudy evening skies of Oriole Park at Camden Yards, the Baltimore Orioles look to extend their winning streak in this high-temperature series opener against the Kansas City Royals. With peak temperatures climbing to 92°F and conditions heavily favoring the bats, tonight's outcome hinges on which starting pitcher can keep the ball out of the humid air. The starting pitching matchup is a stark contrast of profiles in an environment that uniquely penalizes one over the other. Kyle Bradish takes the mound for Baltimore boasting a 3.75 ERA and a solid 3.88 xERA. Crucially, Bradish leans ground-ball with a 1.38 GO/AO, a vital asset tonight that will keep the ball out of the carrying air. He also matches up well against the Royals' top lefties, holding left-handed hitters to a .235 batting average. Conversely, Kansas City starter Noah Cameron struggles with a 4.77 ERA (4.9 xERA) and leans fly-ball with an extreme 0.79 GO/AO. In 92°F heat and high humidity, Cameron's fly-ball tendencies represent severe home run risk against a surging Orioles lineup that has posted an elite .410 rolling xwOBA, 53.5% Hard-hit rate, and 8.5% barrel rate over their last three games. Baltimore's Pete Alonso, who slugged a .448 xwOBA against the 4-seam fastball (Cameron's primary pitch, used 29% of the time), is perfectly positioned to capitalize on these conditions. Beyond the starting arms, the organizational depth and situational records strongly favor the home side. While Baltimore's closer Andrew Kittredge may be limited after throwing 24 pitches over the last two days, the Orioles' high-leverage bullpen remains robust with options like Rico Garcia (2.68 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) and Tyler Wells (3.09 ERA). This provides a far sturdier bridge than a Kansas City bullpen that has struggled, featuring Lucas Erceg (5.00 ERA) and Alex Lange (5.92 ERA). With Baltimore playing solid baseball at home (26-25) and Kansas City historically struggling on the road at 17-31, the Orioles on the moneyline at -154 represent a highly confident bet backed by starting pitching, environmental advantages, and late-game depth.

Orioles ML-154

CONF

78%

MLB7:05 PM

Astros @ Rangers

Globe Life Field gets ready for a Lone Star State battle tonight as the Rangers look to build on yesterday's win, but the starting pitching matchup is where this game turns on its head. The moneyline is sitting at near pick 'em prices, which is a massive mispricing given the clear gap between these two starters. Peter Lambert (7-5, 3.26 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) has been the definition of consistency for Houston, throwing two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, supported by a highly sustainable 3.54 xERA. On the other hand, Texas sends Kumar Rocker (2-7, 3.95 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) to the mound, and he is screaming for negative regression with a bloated 4.58 xERA. The platoon advantages for the Astros are overwhelming. Texas starts four left-handed hitters in their top eight positions—including Joc Pederson, Brandon Nimmo, and Evan Carter—playing right into Lambert's hands, who has absolutely dismantled lefties this season to a microscopic .151 AVG and .530 OPS. Meanwhile, Rocker has struggled mightily against lefties, allowing a .286 AVG and .820 OPS. This is a nightmare scenario against Yordan Alvarez, who boasts a massive 1.074 night OPS and a .573 xwOBA against sinkers, which happen to make up 30% of Rocker’s arsenal. To make matters worse, Rocker's performance falls apart at home (4.20 ERA) and under the lights (4.71 Night ERA), while Lambert shines on the road with a 3.08 ERA. Yesterday’s game went to Texas after a late-inning collapse by Houston's bridge, but that actually left the Astros in a pristine position for tonight. Their elite closer, sporting a minuscule 0.59 ERA and 0.72 WHIP, is completely fresh with zero pitches thrown since July 7. Conversely, the Rangers' bullpen is heavily taxed; their All-Star closer with a 1.65 ERA threw a grueling 41 pitches yesterday and is highly unlikely to be available, leaving them to rely on high-ERA relief options like Cole Winn (6.06 ERA). Combine Houston's late-inning bullpen health with their superior starting pitching match and defensive edge (+14 DRS compared to Texas's defensive infield liability of -28 DRS), and the value is entirely on the Astros to bounce back tonight.

Astros ML-104

CONF

82%

MLB7:10 PM

Cubs @ Reds

Welcome to a muggy, high-stakes Saturday night at Great American Ball Park, where the Chicago Cubs look to even up the series against the Cincinnati Reds under a threatening Ohio sky. With storm clouds hovering and the wind blowing out to right-center, this division battle is primed for fireworks on the basepaths and over the fence. This game comes down to a starting pitching mismatch that the market hasn't fully priced in. Nick Lodolo takes the hill for the Reds, but his 4.68 ERA is a massive illusion. Baseball Savant's expected metrics show a pitcher on the brink of disaster, with an xERA at a bloated 6.12 and an opponent xwOBA of .354. Lodolo's primary pitch is a highly vulnerable sinker (28.7% usage) that has surrendered a .333 batting average and a .475 xwOBA. The Cubs' top of the order absolutely decimates that specific pitch, with Seiya Suzuki hitting .373 and Pete Crow-Armstrong boasting a .432 xwOBA against sinkers. Furthermore, Suzuki has career-long dominance against Lodolo, putting up a 1.133 OPS with 10 walks in 25 plate appearances. Ian Happ (.348 batting average, 1.096 OPS in 23 career at-bats) and Crow-Armstrong (.444 average) have also owned Lodolo historically. Since Lodolo also struggles mightily against right-handed hitters, giving up 7 home runs to righties this season, the righty-heavy heart of the Chicago lineup is set up to tee off in a ballpark with a 1.1 home-run factor. While Javier Assad has his own road struggles, carrying a 5.90 road ERA, he is backed by a much superior overall ball club. The Cubs sit at 52-42 with a +0.65 run-differential-per-game, compared to Cincinnati’s sub-.500 record of 43-50 and a -0.28 run-differential. Defensively, the Cubs represent a much cleaner operation, committing just 37 errors to Cincinnati's 50 and holding a massive advantage behind the plate, throwing out 35.8% of runners compared to the Reds' 22.7%. Chicago's defense will provide the steady support Assad needs on a humid, high-variance night. With the Cubs offered at -104 on the moneyline, we are getting the significantly stronger team with a massive, proven batter-pitcher matchup edge at a near-even price. Take the Cubs to bounce back and secure the victory.

Cubs ML-104

CONF

72%

MLB7:15 PM

Braves @ Cardinals

The humid summer air hangs thick over Busch Stadium as the St. Louis Cardinals host the Atlanta Braves in a pivotal Saturday night clash following an exhausting, rain-delayed marathon that wrapped up in the early hours of the morning. While St. Louis took that opener, the quick turnaround has left both coaching staffs scrambling to manage their taxed rosters, creating a distinct tactical edge for the visitors. The starting pitching matchup is a mismatch that the betting market is underestimating. Atlanta sends Reynaldo López to the mound, who has been highly effective with a 3.18 ERA and an elite 6.2% barrel rate. Conversely, Matthew Liberatore takes the hill for St. Louis in a state of freefall, sporting a 5.34 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP, while struggling to suppress hard contact with a 10% barrel rate and 41.6% hard-hit rate allowed. Liberatore's primary vulnerability is a disastrous reverse platoon split that plays right into the strength of the Atlanta lineup. The left-hander has been absolutely shredded by left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .306 batting average and a glaring .927 OPS, including six home runs in just 85 at-bats. This weakness is a green light for Atlanta's premier left-handed bats like Matt Olson, who boasts an .847 OPS against left-handed pitching, and Michael Harris II, who carries a .757 OPS against southpaws. Even if López's 4.49 xERA suggests some regression, he is heavily protected by an elite outfield defense featuring Harris's 95th percentile center field range and Mauricio Dubón's 11 Defensive Runs Saved, allowing the Braves to absorb López's fly-ball tendencies in this spacious ballpark. The deciding factor in this matchup lies in the late-inning bullpen availability. Because the series opener finished early this morning, middle relief is paper-thin on both sides, but Atlanta holds a massive rest advantage where it counts. Braves closer Raisel Iglesias is completely fresh, having not pitched since July 8. Meanwhile, Cardinals closer Riley O'Brien threw early this morning, JoJo Romero is likely unavailable after throwing 46 pitches over the last five days, and Ryne Stanek is limited with a leg injury after pitching 21 pitches earlier today. Facing a fatigued St. Louis relief corps, the Braves are primed to break this open late. Getting the Braves at near-even money against a struggling starter and a compromised bullpen is the absolute sharp play tonight.

Braves ML-104

CONF

72%

MLB8:40 PM

Blue Jays @ Padres

An evening clash under the cloudy skies at Petco Park features a fascinating interleague matchup as the surging Blue Jays look to build on their winning streak against a Padres squad trying to find its footing at home. This game comes down to a massive disparity on the mound, where Toronto’s rookie sensation Trey Yesavage is vastly outperforming San Diego's struggling veteran Walker Buehler. Yesavage has been highly effective in his 13 starts this season, posting a 3.31 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an elite 3.1 xERA, and he has been even tougher on the road with a 2.36 ERA. On the other hand, Buehler’s 18 starts have resulted in a 5.07 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 4.46 xERA, though he has been better at home with a 4.06 ERA. Buehler has been particularly vulnerable with his four-seam fastball, which has allowed a .393 batting average and a .412 xwOBA. This is a glaring mismatch against Toronto's lineup, which hits .244 on the season with a .688 OPS and 4.1 runs per game, compared to San Diego's offense hitting .225 with a .672 OPS and 3.9 runs per game. Specifically, Ernie Clement is hitting .354 against four-seam fastballs, and Kazuma Okamoto holds a strong .338 xwOBA against the pitch. They are primed to exploit Buehler's fastball issues. Furthermore, team momentum heavily favors the visitors. Toronto enters on a four-game winning streak, including a 5-3 victory in yesterday's series opener, and is 6-4 in their last 10 games, averaging 3.8 runs scored and 3.8 runs allowed. Meanwhile, San Diego is in a 3-7 slide over their last 10 games, averaging 3.6 runs scored while allowing 6.5 runs per game. Though the Padres have activated Matt Waldron today to bolster their bullpen, their pitching depth is under major stress compared to a highly rested Toronto bullpen that has faced only 20 batters over the last three days. At near-even money, backing the superior starting pitcher and the hotter team is the sharp play tonight.

Blue Jays ML-104

CONF

78%

WC9:00 PM

Switzerland @ Argentina

A searing summer night in Kansas City sets the stage for a blockbuster World Cup Quarterfinal as reigning champions Argentina look to lock up a spot in the final four against a battle-tested Switzerland squad at Arrowhead Stadium. This is a classic tournament spot where the physical reality of schedule and travel outweighs what's on paper. My read tonight is that the physical toll of this tournament has caught up to the Swiss at the worst possible moment. While Argentina has been comfortably camped out in Kansas City, playing two group matches at this very venue and acclimating to the mid-July heat, Switzerland has been run through the ringer. The Swiss are coming off a grueling 120-minute scoreless marathon against Colombia in Vancouver, followed by an immediate 1,850-mile flight across two time zones with only four days to recover. In a high-stakes quarterfinal, those heavy legs will show up early, especially under the punishing Kansas City sun. Furthermore, Switzerland’s offense faces a massive uphill battle without breakout star Johan Manzambi, who is officially ruled out of the tournament. While Argentina's defense has had its moments of emotional chaos recently, conceding two goals apiece to Cape Verde and Egypt, Switzerland simply lacks the offensive firepower to exploit those gaps without their top creator. With Lionel Messi in historic Golden Boot form—tallying 8 goals in 5 matches—and Lionel Scaloni boasting a fully healthy squad that can cycle in elite talent like Lautaro Martínez or Julián Álvarez, the Albiceleste have too many ways to break down an exhausted opponent. At -140, we are getting an incredibly fair price on the far fresher, more talented side to win in regulation.

Argentina ML-140

CONF

75%

WC9:00 PM

Switzerland @ Argentina

Under the glowing lights of Arrowhead Stadium, the defensive rigidity of a fatigued Swiss side meets the elite attacking efficiency of Argentina with a semifinal berth on the line. When a fatigued, defensive-minded underdog faces a powerhouse in extreme summer heat, the game script almost always points toward a tightly contested, low-tempo affair. My read on this total is that we are going to see a slow, controlled chess match that stays under the 2.5-goal line. Switzerland's entire identity in this tournament has been built on an elite defensive floor, sustaining a tournament-low 0.43 xGA per match and keeping back-to-back clean sheets. Knowing they are playing on heavy legs after their 120-minute battle in Vancouver, the Swiss side will have no choice but to sit deep, compress the space in the defensive third, and try to survive. They will not chase the game or trade blows with Argentina's high-octane offense. On the other side, Argentina will be more than happy to control the tempo. Averaging 61% possession in this tournament, Scaloni's men will use patient, short-passing build-ups to keep the ball, make the tired Swiss defenders chase, and minimize their own transition defense exposure. With the heat expected to be quite punishing in Kansas City, neither team will want to turn this into a track meet. Even with Messi's clinical finishing, breaking down a compact Swiss defense that has yet to trail in this cycle is a painstaking process. Expect a disciplined, low-scoring affair where a single moment of magic decides it, easily keeping this under the 2.5 total at a heavy but completely justified -160 price.

Under 2.5-160

CONF

70%

MLB9:10 PM

Diamondbacks @ Dodgers

Under the warm summer sky in Los Angeles, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks renew their NL West rivalry in a matchup that features a stark contrast on the mound. It is a premier pitching showcase on one side and a glaring tactical mismatch on the other as Yoshinobu Yamamoto takes the hill against Brandon Pfaadt. My read is that the Dodgers are primed to break this game open early, making their -1.5 run line at -125 the smartest ticket on the board tonight. The core of this matchup lies in Brandon Pfaadt's extreme vulnerability against left-handed hitting. This season, Pfaadt has allowed a dismal .929 OPS and seven home runs to lefties in just 99 at-bats. That is a disastrous fit against a Dodgers lineup that features five left-handed bats in their top eight positions—including Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Kyle Tucker, and Dalton Rushing—alongside switch-hitter Tommy Edman. Freddie Freeman has already punished Pfaadt in past matchups, posting a .925 OPS in 23 head-to-head at-bats, and the warm 81.1°F weather with a 8 mph wind blowing out will only amplify this power advantage. On the other side, Yoshinobu Yamamoto gives the Dodgers a massive baseline advantage. Carrying a dominant 2.49 ERA and a tiny 0.88 WHIP, Yamamoto has been virtually unhittable recently, registering a 1.78 ERA over his last five starts. He matches up perfectly against Arizona’s key hitters, holding a career edge over Corbin Carroll, who has gone just 1-for-17 with six strikeouts against him. While Arizona's Ketel Marte has hit him well, Yamamoto's elite command—demonstrated by his 100:15 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season—is a perfect match for home plate umpire Rob Drake's notoriously wide strike zone. This pitching mismatch will make it incredibly difficult for the Diamondbacks to match the Dodgers' offensive output. While the Dodgers' bullpen was heavily utilized yesterday, the depth of this pitching staff is well-positioned to handle it. Yamamoto has gone at least seven innings in three of his last five starts, which should preserve the relief corps, and the Dodgers activated Landon Knack today to provide reliable length. Furthermore, closer Tanner Scott remains fresh and available to seal the door. With the Diamondbacks also dealing with the emotional blow of ace Zac Gallen landing on the shelf with elbow inflammation, the Dodgers are in a perfect position to secure a multi-run victory at home.

Dodgers -1.5-125

CONF

78%

Player props

MLB · Brewers @ Pirates

Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds is a fundamentally different hitter within the confines of PNC Park. His .988 home OPS and .319 home average are elite, and he enters this game in productive form with three home runs over his last 10 games.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+135

· Bryan Reynolds .988 Home OPS and .319 Home AVG at PNC Park in 2026
· Brandon Sproat 5.74 ERA in day games vs 4.19 on the road/night sessions
· Sproat allows a 43.4% Hard-Hit rate and 1.6 HR/9 on the season

MLB · Athletics @ White Sox

Miguel Vargas

Miguel Vargas is one of the premier left-handed specialists in the American League, boasting a massive 1.024 OPS and .286 average against southpaws this year. He draws an ideal matchup against Oakland’s Gage Jump, who has hit a wall recently, allowing 10 earned runs and four homers across his last two starts (7.2 innings).

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+105

· Miguel Vargas 1.024 OPS vs LHP this season
· Gage Jump 4.74 ERA and 4 HR allowed over last 5 starts (10 ER in last 7.2 IP)
· Guaranteed Rate Field 1.04 park factor in 79 degree weather

MLB · Angels @ Twins

Trevor Larnach

Trevor Larnach is in a prime position to capitalize on a massive mismatch at the top of the order. Angels starter Ryan Johnson enters this contest with a 6.99 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP, and his struggles against left-handed hitters are well-documented; he is allowing a .288 batting average and a .862 OPS to the platoon.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+127

· Trevor Larnach bats 1st with a .285 season average and .817 OPS.
· Opposing SP Ryan Johnson allows a .288 average and .862 OPS to left-handed hitters.
· Break-even probability for +127 odds is 44.1%.

MLB · Yankees @ Nationals

Ben Rice

Rice is in the midst of a historic power surge, and this matchup against Miles Mikolas is a dream scenario. Mikolas is a contact pitcher who has been struggling significantly, posting a 6.66 ERA over his last five starts and lacking the swing-and-miss stuff to neutralize a hitter in Rice's current form. As a left-handed hitter with pull-side power, Rice is the primary beneficiary of the 9 mph wind blowing toward the right-field porch and the thinning air from the 89-degree heat. A single extra-base hit or two singles from the Yankees' hottest hitter clears this line.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-117

· 7 HR and 13 RBI in his last 10 games (.324 average)
· Facing Miles Mikolas (5.78 ERA) who has allowed 18 hits in his last 13 innings
· 89°F temperature with 9 mph wind blowing Out to RF

MLB HR · Yankees @ Nationals

Ben Rice

This is the 'Gary Special'—doubling down on Rice because the logic for the home run is identical to the total bases case. Rice is seeing the ball perfectly right now, and Mikolas is a pitcher who works in the zone but has been unable to miss bats or keep the ball in the park recently. The combination of Rice's scorching form and the weather conditions (high heat and wind blowing out to right) makes this a high-value play for a player who has already cleared the fence 29 times this year.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+330

· 7 HR in his last 10 games with a 0.962 season OPS
· Wind blowing 9 mph Out to RF (Rice is a pull-power LHB)
· Mikolas has surrendered 5 HR in his last 25.2 innings (1.75 HR/9)

MLB · Rockies @ Giants

Rafael Devers

Rafael Devers is in the midst of a phenomenal power surge, hitting .382 with five home runs over his last 10 games. Tonight, he faces Kyle Freeland, a pitcher he has historically dominated with two home runs in just seven career at-bats.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+120

· Rafael Devers: .382 AVG, 5 HR in last 10 games
· Devers vs Freeland: 2 HR in 7 career ABs (1.429 OPS)
· Kyle Freeland: 7.46 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, .338 AVG allowed to LHB in 2026

MLB · Rockies @ Giants

Heliot Ramos

Heliot Ramos is the ideal candidate to exploit Kyle Freeland’s struggles against right-handed power. Freeland has surrendered 15 of his 17 home runs this season to right-handed hitters, and Ramos has a proven track record against him, hitting .375 with a home run in 16 career at-bats.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-115

· Heliot Ramos: .375 career AVG (6-for-16) with 1 HR vs Kyle Freeland
· Kyle Freeland: .320 AVG and 15 HR allowed to RHH in 2026
· Ramos: 3 HR in last 10 games, batting leadoff tonight

MLB · Red Sox @ Mets

Juan Soto

The matchup between the most disciplined hitter in the league and a pitcher making his MLB debut is a classic scenario for a free pass. Soto has been incredibly patient of late, drawing 10 walks over his last 10 games, and his elite home splits (.349 AVG, 1.121 OPS at Citi Field) suggest pitchers are already extremely cautious with him in this park. Eduardo Rivera is a 23-year-old lefty whose primary weapon is a mid-90s fastball; if he struggles with his command early due to debut nerves, Soto is the last player who will bail him out by chasing. Soto’s willingness to take what the pitcher gives him, combined with Rivera’s lack of major league experience, creates a very high floor for at least one walk tonight.

OVER 0.5 Walks-136

· 10 walks in last 10 games
· Facing LHP Eduardo Rivera in MLB debut
· Needs >57.6% to break even (-136)

MLB · Guardians @ Marlins

Otto Lopez

Otto Lopez is currently the hottest hitter in the Miami lineup, slashing .409 over his last 10 games with 18 hits and three home runs. While loanDepot park is traditionally a pitcher's environment, Lopez has shown no signs of slowing down, clearing 1.5 total bases in six of his last 10 outings.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+122

· 0.409 AVG over last 10 games (18-for-44)
· 4.77 xERA for Tanner Bibee (0.71 higher than actual ERA)
· 42.7% hard-hit rate allowed by Bibee

MLB · Mariners @ Rays

Randy Arozarena

Tonight's play on Randy Arozarena is a bet on the league's most pronounced pitching regression candidate meeting one of the hottest hitters in the American League. Griffin Jax has managed to navigate a 3.60 ERA this season, but his underlying metrics tell a far more dangerous story: a 5.10 xERA and a .346 xwOBA allowed suggest he has been living on borrowed time.

OVER 0.5 Hits-190

· Randy Arozarena: .314 AVG over last 10 games (11-for-35)
· Griffin Jax: 5.10 xERA vs 3.60 actual ERA (Regression Indicator)
· Griffin Jax: 10.9% Barrel Rate allowed (Top 10% of league)

MLB · Mariners @ Rays

Junior Caminero

We are fading the Rays' rookie star tonight in a classic 'immovable object vs. struggling force' scenario. Junior Caminero is currently mired in a significant slump, having gone 0-for-his-last-13 at the plate, including a three-strikeout performance yesterday.

UNDER 0.5 Hits+176

· Junior Caminero: 0-for-his-last-13 (hitless in 3 straight games)
· Logan Gilbert: 1.87 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over last 5 starts
· Logan Gilbert: 37 strikeouts in last 33.2 innings (9.9 K/9)

WC · England @ Norway

Harry Kane

England is a high-volume attacking side, averaging 18 shots and 6.67 shots on target per game. Harry Kane is the primary beneficiary of that volume, recording four shots per cap in his recent outings and trailing Haaland by only one goal for the Golden Boot.

OVER 1.5 Shots On Target-137

· 6 goals in 5 tournament matches for Kane
· England averaging 18 shots and 6.67 shots on target per match
· Kane recorded 8 shots in his last two international caps

MLB HR · Mariners @ Rays

Junior Caminero

Junior Caminero is currently the most dangerous power threat in this matchup, leading the Rays with 28 home runs. He enters this game on a significant power surge, having homered in five of his last ten games, including back-to-back games leading into today.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+280

· Junior Caminero: 28 HR in 350 AB (1 HR per 12.5 AB)
· Recent Form: 5 HR in last 10 games, including 2 in last 2 starts
· Logan Gilbert: 1.17 HR/9 allowed this season (14 HR in 107.1 IP)

MLB HR · Mariners @ Rays

Cal Raleigh

Cal Raleigh is a pure 'three-true-outcomes' hitter whose value tonight lies entirely in the matchup against Griffin Jax. While Raleigh is struggling with a .165 average, he remains the Mariners' primary power source with Julio Rodriguez sidelined.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+310

· Griffin Jax: 1.66 HR/9 allowed (12 HR in 65.0 IP)
· Platoon: Jax has allowed 7 HR in 146 AB to left-handed hitters (4.8% HR/AB)
· Cal Raleigh: 8 HR in 175 AB vs Right-Handed Pitchers this season

MLB · Phillies @ Tigers

Spencer Torkelson

While the Phillies' lefties are struggling, the Tigers' right-handed bats are feasting, and Spencer Torkelson is at the center of it. Torkelson has been a run-producing machine lately, clearing this 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs line in four of his last five games, including a 3-HRR performance in yesterday's blowout. He gets a favorable matchup against Cristopher Sánchez, who significantly regresses when facing right-handed hitters (.282 AVG allowed vs.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI+106

· Platoon Split: Cristopher Sánchez allowing .282 AVG and .754 OPS to RHB
· Recent Production: 3 HR and 9 RBI over last 10 games (.734 season OPS)
· Volume: Cleared 1.5 HRR in 4 of his last 5 games

MLB · Astros @ Rangers

Yordan Alvarez

This is the premier power matchup of the night. Kumar Rocker is a high-upside pitcher with an elite slider, but his secondary offering, the sinker, has been a disaster (.339 BA against).

OVER 2.5 H+R+RBI+110

· Yordan Alvarez: 1.097 OPS and 22 HR vs RHP this season
· Kumar Rocker: .820 OPS and 7 HR allowed to LHB in 182 ABs
· Kumar Rocker: .339 batting average allowed on his sinker (30.0% usage)

MLB · Royals @ Orioles

Bobby Witt Jr.

Bobby Witt Jr. is the hottest hand in this matchup, coming off a two-homer performance yesterday and entering a game environment that perfectly suits his power profile.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-136

· .306 batting average against sinkers this season
· 2 home runs and 3 RBI in yesterday's game (July 10)
· Needs >58% win probability at -136 odds

MLB · Cubs @ Reds

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong is currently in the most productive stretch of his young career, recently becoming the first player in MLB to reach the 20/20 mark this season. His recent form is staggering, posting a .400 average with four home runs over his last 10 games.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+102

· L10 Batting Average: .400 (14-for-35)
· Lodolo xERA: 6.12 (ERA 4.68)
· PCA cleared 1.5 Total Bases in 4 of last 5 games

MLB · Cubs @ Reds

Elly De La Cruz

Elly De La Cruz is a fundamentally different hitter at Great American Ball Park, where his OPS jumps to 1.000 compared to a pedestrian .685 on the road. Tonight he faces Javier Assad, a right-hander whose metrics also point toward regression (4.65 xERA vs. 4.15 ERA).

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-101

· Home Splits: .322 AVG / 1.000 OPS (Away: .223 AVG)
· Assad OPS allowed vs. LHB: .807 (vs. RHB: .572)
· Elly L5 Total Bases: [7, 0, 6, 0, 0]

MLB · Braves @ Cardinals

Matt Olson

The primary driver for this pick is Matthew Liberatore's severe struggle against left-handed hitting. Despite being a southpaw, Liberatore is surrendering a massive .927 OPS and a .306 average to lefties this season.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-110

· Matthew Liberatore vs LHB: .927 OPS, .306 AVG allowed
· Matt Olson: 5 HR in last 10 games
· Line needs >52.4% win probability

MLB · Braves @ Cardinals

Jordan Walker

Jordan Walker is currently the most productive run-producer in the Cardinals' lineup, entering this contest with 15 RBIs over his last 10 games. He is entrenched in the cleanup spot, batting behind high-OBP players like JJ Wetherholt and Alec Burleson, which has provided consistent opportunities to drive in runs (recording an RBI in 6 of his last 10). He faces Reynaldo Lopez, who is a significant regression candidate tonight; Lopez's 3.18 ERA is heavily contradicted by a 4.49 xERA. Given Walker's .343 average and 4 home runs in his recent 10-game stretch, he is well-positioned to exploit Lopez's expected regression in a run-scoring environment aided by high humidity.

OVER 0.5 RBI+152

· Jordan Walker: 15 RBIs in last 10 games
· Reynaldo Lopez: 4.49 xERA vs 3.18 actual ERA
· Line needs >39.7% win probability

MLB · Blue Jays @ Padres

Kazuma Okamoto

This is a fundamental mismatch between a struggling pitcher's primary weakness and a hitter's specific strength. Walker Buehler’s 4-seam fastball has been a liability this season, yielding a massive .393 batting average and a .412 xwOBA.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+132

· Walker Buehler allows .393 BA and .412 xwOBA on 4-seam fastball
· Kazuma Okamoto slugs .574 vs 4-seamers and .566 vs sinkers in 2026
· Walker Buehler has surrendered 16 earned runs over his last 9.0 innings pitched

WC · Switzerland @ Argentina

Lionel Messi

Lionel Messi is currently in a legendary run of form, leading the Golden Boot race with 8 goals through 5 matches and scoring in every single game of this tournament. Argentina’s tactical architecture is built to funnel high-quality opportunities to the 39-year-old, resulting in a team average of 15 shots and 6.5 shots on target per match.

OVER 1 Anytime Goal+102

· Lionel Messi: 8 goals in 5 tournament matches
· Argentina: 6.5 team shots on target per match
· Switzerland: missing breakout star Johan Manzambi (3 goals)

WC · Switzerland @ Argentina

Gregor Kobel

This prop is a high-floor volume play based on Argentina’s relentless offensive output. The reigning champions are averaging 6.5 shots on target per match, and even in games where they have struggled to find rhythm, they have consistently tested the opposing goalkeeper.

OVER 4 Saves-110

· Argentina: 6.5 team shots on target per match
· Argentina: 61% possession average
· Gregor Kobel: Round of 16 'penalty hero' in top form

MLB · Diamondbacks @ Dodgers

Freddie Freeman

This pick is centered on a massive statistical mismatch between Brandon Pfaadt and left-handed hitters. Pfaadt has been consistently dismantled by lefties this season, allowing a .303 average and a .929 OPS.

OVER 1.5 Hits+200

· Brandon Pfaadt vs LHB: .303 AVG / .929 OPS allowed (2026)
· Freddie Freeman vs RHP: .319 AVG / .946 OPS (2026)
· Freeman multi-hit games: 2 of last 3 games

MLB HR · Blue Jays @ Padres

Kazuma Okamoto

Okamoto is the clear outlier in this power matchup. He leads the Blue Jays with 22 home runs and is currently in the midst of a significant power surge, having cleared this line in three of his last five games.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+350

· Season: 22 HR in 332 AB (1 HR per 15.1 AB)
· Recent: 3 HR in last 5 games (L5 HR: [1, 1, 0, 1, 0])
· Opponent: Walker Buehler 9.2% Barrel rate and 8 HR allowed to RHB in 158 AB

MLB HR · Cubs @ Reds

Elly De La Cruz

This play is about targeting the specific vulnerability Javier Assad has shown against left-handed power this season. Assad has surrendered 80% of his home runs (8 of 10) to lefties, and tonight he faces one of the most explosive left-handed hitters in the game in his own backyard.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+390

· Assad vs LHB: 8 HR allowed in 106 AB (.807 OPS)
· Elly De La Cruz Home OPS: 1.000 (10 HR in 146 AB)
· Assad Hard-hit% allowed: 49.1%

MLB HR · Cubs @ Reds

Dansby Swanson

While Swanson's .213 season average might scare off the casual bettor, his history against Nick Lodolo is impossible to ignore for a prop at this price. Swanson has taken Lodolo deep twice in just 16 career at-bats, showing he sees the lefty's release point exceptionally well.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+390

· Lodolo vs RHB: 7 HR allowed in 160 AB
· Swanson vs Lodolo: 2 HR in 16 career ABs (.188 AVG but high SLG)
· Lodolo xERA: 6.12 (actual ERA 4.68)

Hub research

162

platoon_edgeTOR @ SD
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 2nd against Walker Buehler (RHP)
Over 160 AB vs. Right, Nathan Lukes owns a .820 OPS versus .297 in 31 AB the other way. He sees RHP Walker Buehler tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
starter_team_recordCHC @ CIN
Cubs 7-1 in Javier Assad's last 8 starts
Cubs are 7-1 in Javier Assad's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 5 in a row. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordSEA @ TB
Mariners 7-1 in Logan Gilbert's last 8 starts
Mariners are 7-1 in Logan Gilbert's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordLAA @ MIN
Angels 1-7 in Ryan Johnson's last 8 starts
Angels are 1-7 in Ryan Johnson's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
platoon_edgeATL @ STL
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Reynaldo Lopez (RHP)
Over 242 AB vs. Right, Alec Burleson owns a .952 OPS versus .488 in 110 AB the other way. He sees RHP Reynaldo Lopez tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
cooling_offNYY @ WSH
Paul Goldschmidt: .126 OPS in L15 — draws LHP PJ Poulin
Paul Goldschmidt's .126 OPS over the last 15 days (39 PA) trails his .802 season mark, down 0.676. Tonight he draws LHP PJ Poulin — his stronger side: a 1.091 OPS vs LHP across 99 AB.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
platoon_edgeNYY @ WSH
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot
Paul Goldschmidt's vs. Left line (1.091 OPS, 99 AB) sits well above his .584 mark the other way (136 AB). Tonight's starter PJ Poulin throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
heat_checkCOL @ SF
Rafael Devers: 1.294 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 49 PA: a 1.294 OPS versus .808 for the season, 0.486 above his norm. He has 19 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
streakSUI @ ARG
Argentina are unbeaten in 11 internationals
Across their last 5 World Cup matches they are 4-1-0 (W-D-W-W-W), carrying a 11-match unbeaten run into this fixture.
P team won 1-3
heat_checkNYY @ WSH
Luis Garcia Jr.: 1.361 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 49 PA: a 1.361 OPS versus .883 for the season, 0.478 above his norm. He has 20 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
gary_hr_threatsBlue Jays @ Padres
Kazuma Okamoto
Okamoto is the clear outlier in this power matchup. He leads the Blue Jays with 22 home runs and is currently in the midst of a significant power surge, having cleared this line in three of his last five games.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeCOL @ SF
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Mickey Moniak's vs. Right line (.990 OPS, 162 AB) sits well above his .603 mark the other way (39 AB). Tonight's starter Tyler Mahle throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
platoon_edgeCLE @ MIA
Travis Bazzana (bats L) hits 1st against Eury Perez (RHP)
Over 152 AB vs. Right, Travis Bazzana owns a .845 OPS versus .519 in 84 AB the other way. He sees RHP Eury Perez tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
starter_formTOR @ SD
Walker Buehler: 10.67 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 10.67 ERA over his last 14.3 innings with a 1.74 WHIP (1.39 season) — the 5.07 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
starter_formPHI @ DET
Cristopher Sanchez: 8.22 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 15.3 innings, 14 earned runs, 22 hits. That 8.22 ERA runs 5.6 over his 2.62 season number.
P 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
cooling_offCOL @ SF
Jung Hoo Lee: .416 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Kyle Freeland
Jung Hoo Lee's .416 OPS over the last 15 days (50 PA) trails his .778 season mark, down 0.362. Tonight he draws LHP Kyle Freeland — his weaker side: a .763 OPS vs LHP across 93 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
starter_team_recordMIL @ PIT
Pirates 6-2 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 8 starts
Pirates are 6-2 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 4 in a row. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordARI @ LAD
Dodgers 6-2 in Yoshinobu Yamamoto's last 8 starts
Dodgers are 6-2 in Yoshinobu Yamamoto's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordPHI @ DET
Phillies 6-2 in Cristopher Sanchez's last 8 starts
Phillies are 6-2 in Cristopher Sanchez's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordMIL @ PIT
Brewers 6-2 in Shane Drohan's last 8 starts
Brewers are 6-2 in Shane Drohan's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 3 in a row. He starts tonight.
heat_checkNYY @ WSH
James Wood: 1.396 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (47 PA) he is at a 1.396 OPS, up 0.433 on his .963 season mark. He has 26 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 3-for-5, 6 TB
heat_checkCOL @ SF
Kyle Karros: 1.210 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (49 PA) he is at a 1.210 OPS, up 0.408 on his .802 season mark. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
starter_team_recordCOL @ SF
Giants 2-6 in Tyler Mahle's last 8 starts
Giants are 2-6 in Tyler Mahle's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
starter_formLAA @ MIN
Ryan Johnson: 1.80 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (15 IP) he has a 1.80 ERA with a 0.87 WHIP (1.55 season) and 17 strikeouts — his season mark is 6.99, and that is where most lines still price him.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
platoon_edgeOAK @ CHW
Randal Grichuk (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Randal Grichuk's vs. Left line (.907 OPS, 85 AB) sits well above his .600 mark the other way (48 AB). Tonight's starter Gage Jump throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
head_to_headARI @ LAD
Dodgers are 7-3 vs Diamondbacks this season
Dodgers lead the season series 7-3 over Diamondbacks. ARI took the last meeting 9-3 — a revenge spot.
platoon_edgeMIL @ PIT
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Brice Turang's vs. Right line (.926 OPS, 246 AB) sits well above his .567 mark the other way (100 AB). Tonight's starter Braxton Ashcraft throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
starter_team_recordHOU @ TEX
Astros 6-2 in Peter Lambert's last 8 starts
Astros are 6-2 in Peter Lambert's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
cooling_offARI @ LAD
Corbin Carroll: .503 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Corbin Carroll's .503 OPS over the last 15 days (50 PA) trails his .842 season mark, down 0.339. Tonight he draws RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto — his weaker side: a .749 OPS vs RHP across 230 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeNYY @ WSH
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Luis Garcia Jr.'s vs. Right line (.924 OPS, 258 AB) sits well above his .599 mark the other way (38 AB). Tonight's starter Cam Schlittler throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
platoon_edgePHI @ DET
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Bryce Harper's vs. Right line (.997 OPS, 205 AB) sits well above his .653 mark the other way (128 AB). Tonight's starter Casey Mize throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
streakENG @ NOR
England are unbeaten in 5 internationals
Their last 5 at the World Cup read W-W-W-D-W — a 4-1-0 record and a 5-match unbeaten run.
P team won 2-1
cooling_offNYY @ WSH
Cody Bellinger: .373 OPS in L15 — draws LHP PJ Poulin
Cody Bellinger's .373 OPS over the last 15 days (52 PA) trails his .756 season mark, down 0.383. Tonight he draws LHP PJ Poulin — his stronger side: a .761 OPS vs LHP across 119 AB.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
gary_hr_threatsMariners @ Rays
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero is currently the most dangerous power threat in this matchup, leading the Rays with 28 home runs. He enters this game on a significant power surge, having homered in five of his last ten games, including back-to-back games leading into today.
P 0 HR — 1-for-2, 2 TB, 2 BB
cooling_offMIL @ PIT
William Contreras: .438 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Braxton Ashcraft
William Contreras's .438 OPS over the last 15 days (50 PA) trails his .740 season mark, down 0.302. Tonight he draws RHP Braxton Ashcraft — his weaker side: a .734 OPS vs RHP across 246 AB.
P 3-for-5, 4 TB
rest_fatigueOAK @ CHW
16.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for OAK
Relievers have absorbed 16.7 innings over the last 3 games (Jack Perkins (3) and Aaron Civale (2.3) the heaviest). CHW's pen has thrown 10.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 0-1
platoon_edgeKC @ BAL
Vinnie Pasquantino (bats L) hits 5th against Kyle Bradish (RHP)
Over 178 AB vs. Right, Vinnie Pasquantino owns a .768 OPS versus .401 in 76 AB the other way. He sees RHP Kyle Bradish tonight hitting 5th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
bullpen_fatigueATL @ STL
Atlanta Braves pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Atlanta Braves's bullpen has thrown 14 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
platoon_edgeOAK @ CHW
Shea Langeliers (bats R) draws Bryan Hudson (LHP), batting 3rd
Shea Langeliers carries a 1.016 OPS vs. Left (100 AB) against .725 the other way (242 AB), and faces LHP Bryan Hudson from the 3rd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
running_gameMIL @ PIT
Milwaukee Brewers like to run — Henry Davis (54% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Henry Davis owns a 54% caught-stealing rate (13 of 24) and Milwaukee Brewers run anyway — 0.9 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 0 bases
starter_formCHC @ CIN
Nick Lodolo: 0.60 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (15 IP) he has a 0.60 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP (1.46 season) and 14 strikeouts — his season mark is 4.68, and that is where most lines still price him.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
platoon_edgeMIL @ PIT
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Brandon Sproat (RHP), batting 2nd
Brandon Lowe carries a .879 OPS vs. Right (247 AB) against .616 the other way (98 AB), and faces RHP Brandon Sproat from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
regression_watchATL @ STL
Reynaldo Lopez: 7.04 ERA vs 4.05 xERA
Reynaldo Lopez carries a 7.04 ERA against a 4.05 expected ERA (2.99 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .300 off him vs a .234 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
heat_checkMIL @ PIT
Garrett Mitchell: 1.182 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (45 PA) he is at a 1.182 OPS, up 0.359 on his .823 season mark. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkTOR @ SD
Manny Machado: 1.042 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.042 OPS spans the last 15 days (48 PA) against a .704 season baseline, a 0.338 swing. He has 19 home runs on the season.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
gary_hr_threatsCubs @ Reds
Elly De La Cruz
This play is about targeting the specific vulnerability Javier Assad has shown against left-handed power this season. Assad has surrendered 80% of his home runs (8 of 10) to lefties, and tonight he faces one of the most explosive left-handed hitters in the game in his own backyard.
P 0 HR — 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
ownedARI @ LAD
Mookie Betts vs Brandon Pfaadt: .435
In 23 career at-bats against Brandon Pfaadt, Mookie Betts is 10-for-23 for a 1.219 OPS (2 walks). The two square off again tonight. He enters steady (.785 OPS, L15).
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
cooling_offCLE @ MIA
Kyle Manzardo: .369 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Eury Perez
Kyle Manzardo's .369 OPS over the last 15 days (44 PA) trails his .667 season mark, down 0.298. Tonight he draws RHP Eury Perez — his weaker side: a .666 OPS vs RHP across 208 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
gary_hr_threatsYankees @ Nationals
Ben Rice
This is the 'Gary Special'—doubling down on Rice because the logic for the home run is identical to the total bases case. Rice is seeing the ball perfectly right now, and Mikolas is a pitcher who works in the zone but has been unable to miss bats or keep the ball in the park recently.
P 0 HR — 2-for-2, 2 TB, 2 BB
gary_hr_threatsMariners @ Rays
Cal Raleigh
Cal Raleigh is a pure 'three-true-outcomes' hitter whose value tonight lies entirely in the matchup against Griffin Jax. While Raleigh is struggling with a .165 average, he remains the Mariners' primary power source with Julio Rodriguez sidelined.
P 0 HR — 1-for-2, 1 TB, 2 BB
cooling_offATL @ STL
Ivan Herrera: .551 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Reynaldo Lopez
Ivan Herrera's .551 OPS over the last 15 days (55 PA) trails his .782 season mark, down 0.231. Tonight he draws RHP Reynaldo Lopez — his weaker side: a .758 OPS vs RHP across 238 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
cooling_offKC @ BAL
Gunnar Henderson: .445 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Noah Cameron
Gunnar Henderson's .445 OPS over the last 15 days (53 PA) trails his .685 season mark, down 0.24. Tonight he draws LHP Noah Cameron — his weaker side: a .679 OPS vs LHP across 115 AB.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
heat_checkKC @ BAL
Isaac Collins: 1.159 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (33 PA) he is at a 1.159 OPS, up 0.448 on his .711 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
tournamentTO LIFT THE CUP
France head the title market at +150
France are the market's outright World Cup favourite at +150. Spain (+300) and Argentina (+430) are the next shortest.
regression_watchNYY @ WSH
PJ Poulin: 2.83 ERA vs 5.52 xERA
PJ Poulin carries a 2.83 ERA against a 5.52 expected ERA (2.69 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .208 off him vs a .259 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 1.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
streakingHOU @ TEX
TEX games have gone OVER 4 straight
The over has cashed 4 in a row in TEX games: 11.8 combined runs per game vs lines averaging 7.4. Tonight's number sits at 8.5.
P final total 12 vs 8.5
heat_checkCLE @ MIA
Heriberto Hernandez: 1.154 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.154 OPS spans the last 15 days (38 PA) against a .800 season baseline, a 0.354 swing. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
streakingPHI @ DET
DET have won 4 straight
Detroit Tigers have won 4 straight, outscoring teams by 20 runs over the run; 4-2 across their last 6.
P team lost 4-2
cooling_offCHC @ CIN
Ian Happ: .505 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Nick Lodolo
Ian Happ's .505 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .759 season mark, down 0.254. Tonight he draws LHP Nick Lodolo — his weaker side: a .546 OPS vs LHP across 100 AB.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeOAK @ CHW
Miguel Vargas (bats R) draws Gage Jump (LHP), batting 3rd
Miguel Vargas carries a 1.024 OPS vs. Left (98 AB) against .782 the other way (237 AB), and faces LHP Gage Jump from the 3rd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
streakingCOL @ SF
SF games have gone OVER 4 straight
San Francisco Giants games have gone OVER 4 straight — 10.8 runs a night against an average line of 7.6. Tonight's number sits at 8.5.
P final total 6 vs 8.5
bullpen_fatigueLAA @ MIN
Los Angeles Angels pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Los Angeles Angels's bullpen has thrown 13 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
ownedARI @ LAD
Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Corbin Carroll: 1-for-17, 6 K
Corbin Carroll has managed only 1-for-17 (.059) off Yoshinobu Yamamoto, striking out 6 times in 17 career at-bats — they meet again tonight.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offLAA @ MIN
Logan O'Hoppe: .261 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Joe Ryan
Logan O'Hoppe's .261 OPS over the last 15 days (34 PA) trails his .598 season mark, down 0.337. Tonight he draws RHP Joe Ryan — his weaker side: a .570 OPS vs RHP across 148 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
heat_checkLAA @ MIN
Josh Bell: .993 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 50 PA: a .993 OPS versus .739 for the season, 0.254 above his norm. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
starter_formMIL @ PIT
Brandon Sproat: 1.76 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (15.3 IP) he has a 1.76 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP (1.37 season) and 21 strikeouts — his season mark is 5.13, and that is where most lines still price him.
P 3 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
xg_recapCOL @ SUI
Colombia out-created the field but only drew
Colombia won the xG battle 1.0–0.3 yet were held to a draw (0–0). The underlying numbers favoured them — a side the result flattered to deceive.
heat_checkMIL @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez: 1.252 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 49 PA: a 1.252 OPS versus .993 for the season, 0.259 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 3-for-4, 9 TB
starter_formOAK @ CHW
Gage Jump: 7.11 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 7.11 ERA over his last 12.7 innings with a 2.05 WHIP (1.30 season) — the 3.77 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
cooling_offCLE @ MIA
Travis Bazzana: .468 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Eury Perez
Travis Bazzana's .468 OPS over the last 15 days (52 PA) trails his .729 season mark, down 0.261. Tonight he draws RHP Eury Perez — his stronger side: a .845 OPS vs RHP across 152 AB.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
regression_watchLAA @ MIN
Ryan Johnson: 6.99 ERA vs 4.68 xERA
Ryan Johnson carries a 6.99 ERA against a 4.68 expected ERA (2.31 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .288 off him vs a .258 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
cooling_offOAK @ CHW
Henry Bolte: .420 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Bryan Hudson
Henry Bolte's .420 OPS over the last 15 days (48 PA) trails his .713 season mark, down 0.293. Tonight he draws LHP Bryan Hudson — his stronger side: a .792 OPS vs LHP across 61 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
starter_formKC @ BAL
Noah Cameron: 7.90 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 13.7 innings, 12 earned runs, 23 hits. That 7.90 ERA runs 3.13 over his 4.77 season number.
P 7 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
rest_fatigueATL @ STL
13.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for ATL
Relievers have absorbed 13.7 innings over the last 3 games (Connor Thomas (3.7) and Dylan Dodd (2) the heaviest). STL's pen has thrown 10.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 1-4
rest_fatigueKC @ BAL
KC's bullpen has covered 13.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 13.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Randy Dobnak (5.7) and Matt Strahm (1.3). BAL's pen has thrown 9 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 1-6
starter_formCLE @ MIA
Eury Perez: 1.06 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (17 IP) he has a 1.06 ERA with a 0.53 WHIP (1.10 season) and 17 strikeouts — his season mark is 3.84, and that is where most lines still price him.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
tournamentPATH TO THE FINAL
England are the market's pick to reach the final from the other half
Behind the outright favourite, England carry the shortest price to reach the final at -144 — the side the market most expects to come through the other half of the bracket.
tournamentPATH TO THE FINAL
Spain are the market's pick to reach the final from the other half
Behind the outright favourite, Spain carry the shortest price to reach the final at +116 — the side the market most expects to come through the other half of the bracket.
rest_fatigueHOU @ TEX
13 bullpen innings in 3 games for HOU
Relievers have absorbed 13 innings over the last 3 games (Alimber Santa (2.7) and Nate Pearson (2) the heaviest). TEX's pen has thrown 11 over the same span.
P flagged side won 9-3
rest_fatigueSEA @ TB
TB's bullpen has covered 13 innings over the last 3 games
That is 13 relief innings in 3 games, led by Cole Sulser (2.3) and Casey Legumina (2). SEA's pen has thrown 8 over the same span.
P flagged side won 1-6
park_weatherCOL @ SF
Wind blowing in 12 mph at Oracle Park tonight
Conditions at Oracle Park: Cloudy, 63°, wind 12 mph, In From LF. That wind knocks down anything hit in the air. The total sits at 8.5.
P final total 6 vs 8.5 (under lean)
tournamentENG @ NOR
Norway vs England: Quarterfinal stakes
This is a quarterfinal tie — win or go home. To lift the trophy: England are the No. 4 title choice at +460. The market has it Norway +280 / the draw +265 / England -105.
tournamentSUI @ ARG
Argentina vs Switzerland: Quarterfinal stakes
This is a quarterfinal tie — win or go home. The market has it Argentina -145 / the draw +255 / Switzerland +450.
ballpark_shiftTOR @ SD
At Petco Park, Walker Buehler pitches to a 4.06 ERA
Walker Buehler at Petco Park: 4.06 ERA over 51 innings (10G) — 6.50 on a 36-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .239 off him here.
P 2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
cooling_offMIL @ PIT
Brandon Lowe: .600 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brandon Sproat
Brandon Lowe's .600 OPS over the last 15 days (52 PA) trails his .805 season mark, down 0.205. Tonight he draws RHP Brandon Sproat — his stronger side: a .879 OPS vs RHP across 247 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
platoon_edgeLAA @ MIN
Kody Clemens (bats L) hits 4th against Ryan Johnson (RHP)
Over 229 AB vs. Right, Kody Clemens owns a .843 OPS versus .651 in 65 AB the other way. He sees RHP Ryan Johnson tonight hitting 4th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
ownedCOL @ SF
Heliot Ramos vs Kyle Freeland: .375
In 16 career at-bats against Kyle Freeland, Heliot Ramos is 6-for-16 for a 1.125 OPS. The two square off again tonight. He enters hot (.946 OPS, L15).
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
regression_watchCOL @ SF
Kyle Freeland: 7.46 ERA vs 5.78 xERA
Kyle Freeland carries a 7.46 ERA against a 5.78 expected ERA (1.68 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .324 off him vs a .299 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
cooling_offOAK @ CHW
Randal Grichuk: .318 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Gage Jump
Randal Grichuk's .318 OPS over the last 15 days (22 PA) trails his .797 season mark, down 0.479. Tonight he draws LHP Gage Jump — his stronger side: a .907 OPS vs LHP across 85 AB.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
regression_watchBOS @ NYM
Francisco Lindor: .212 AVG vs .265 xBA
Francisco Lindor is hitting .212 against a .265 expected average (xBA) over 163 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .288 against a .346 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
bullpen_fatigueATL @ STL
St. Louis Cardinals pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
St. Louis Cardinals's bullpen has thrown 12.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
ballpark_shiftCHC @ CIN
Nick Lodolo's ERA jumps to 5.50 at Great American Ball Park
Nick Lodolo carries a 5.50 ERA over 7 games (36 IP) at Great American Ball Park vs 3.32 across 21.7 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .288 off him here.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
rest_fatigueNYY @ WSH
NYY's pen has logged 12.3 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 12.3 innings out of the pen — Angel Chivilli (3) and David Bednar (2) carried the load. WSH's pen has thrown 11.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 4-2
park_weatherPHI @ DET
Wind blowing in 11 mph at Comerica Park tonight
Tonight's reading at Comerica Park — Partly Cloudy, 83°, wind 11 mph, In From CF. The air is taking runs off the board. The total sits at 7.75.
P final total 6 vs 7.75 (under lean)
park_weatherATL @ STL
Wind blowing in 11 mph at Busch Stadium tonight
Tonight's reading at Busch Stadium — Partly Cloudy, 81°, wind 11 mph, In From LF. The air is taking runs off the board. The total sits at 8.5.
P final total 5 vs 8.5 (under lean)
regression_watchCOL @ SF
Mickey Moniak: .279 AVG vs .228 xBA
Mickey Moniak's .279 average comes against a .228 expected (xBA) on 219 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .386 against a .315 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
ownedCHC @ CIN
Seiya Suzuki vs Nick Lodolo: .333
Seiya Suzuki has gone 5-for-15 (.333) across 15 career at-bats off Nick Lodolo. They meet again tonight. He enters hot (1.024 OPS, L15).
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
regression_watchMIL @ PIT
Jake Mangum: .311 AVG vs .261 xBA
Across 244 plate appearances, Jake Mangum carries a .311 average versus a .261 xBA. His wOBA sits at .331 against a .290 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
platoon_edgeLAA @ MIN
Nolan Schanuel (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Nolan Schanuel's vs. Right line (.764 OPS, 212 AB) sits well above his .618 mark the other way (67 AB). Tonight's starter Joe Ryan throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkLAA @ MIN
Luke Keaschall: .926 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 36 PA: a .926 OPS versus .689 for the season, 0.237 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB
fantasy_pickupsCHC @ CIN
Seiya Suzuki
Pickup vs Nick Lodolo (6.12 xERA) — .819 OPS, bats 2nd.
regression_watchCOL @ SF
Tyler Mahle: 5.7 ERA vs 4.14 xERA
Tyler Mahle carries a 5.7 ERA against a 4.14 expected ERA (1.56 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .282 off him vs a .246 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
regression_watchSEA @ TB
Griffin Jax: 3.6 ERA vs 5.11 xERA
Griffin Jax carries a 3.6 ERA against a 5.11 expected ERA (1.51 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .239 off him vs a .268 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
heat_checkOAK @ CHW
Miguel Vargas: 1.010 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (52 PA) he is at a 1.010 OPS, up 0.157 on his .853 season mark. He has 21 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
ballpark_shiftNYY @ WSH
PJ Poulin's ERA jumps to 3.94 at Nationals Park
PJ Poulin carries a 3.94 ERA over 16 games (16 IP) at Nationals Park vs 1.89 across 19 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .226 off him here.
P 1.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
rest_fatigueMIL @ PIT
PIT's pen has logged 12 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 12 innings out of the pen — Hunter Stratton (2.3) and Carmen Mlodzinski (2) carried the load. MIL's pen has thrown 9 over the same span.
P flagged side won 6-7
regression_watchOAK @ CHW
Randal Grichuk: .248 AVG vs .294 xBA
Randal Grichuk's .248 average comes against a .294 expected (xBA) on 140 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .338 against a .367 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
running_gameMIL @ PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates like to run — William Contreras (44% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
William Contreras owns a 44% caught-stealing rate (17 of 39) and Pittsburgh Pirates run anyway — 0.9 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Pittsburgh Pirates stole 0 bases
rest_fatigueCOL @ SF
SF's bullpen has covered 12 innings over the last 3 games
That is 12 relief innings in 3 games, led by Adrian Houser (5.7) and Ryan Walker (2). COL's pen has thrown 8.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 2-4
xg_regressionENG @ NOR
Norway are finishing above their chances
Norway are scoring 2.4/match on 1.8 xG — 0.6 goals/match above expected across 5 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
xg_regressionSUI @ ARG
Argentina are finishing above their chances
Argentina are scoring 2.8/match on 2.2 xG — 0.6 goals/match above expected across 5 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
regression_watchCHC @ CIN
Nick Lodolo: 4.68 ERA vs 6.13 xERA
Nick Lodolo carries a 4.68 ERA against a 6.13 expected ERA (1.45 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .278 off him vs a .291 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
fantasy_pickupsPHI @ DET
Casey Mize
Streamer vs PHI — 3.01 xERA · 9 K/9 · 0.98 WHIP.
fantasy_pickupsCOL @ SF
Bryce Eldridge
Pickup vs Kyle Freeland (5.78 xERA) — .829 OPS, bats 6th.
bullpen_fatigueKC @ BAL
Kansas City Royals pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Kansas City Royals's bullpen has thrown 13.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 2 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
fantasy_pickupsCOL @ SF
Rafael Devers
Pickup vs Kyle Freeland (5.78 xERA) — .808 OPS, bats 4th.
xg_recapMAR @ FRA
France created the better chances
France led the xG 3.1–0.1 and took the result to match (2–0).
tournamentSUREST TO ADVANCE
Côte d'Ivoire are the surest bet to advance
Côte d'Ivoire are -10000 to escape their group out of Group E — the shortest to-advance price on the board.
park_weatherBOS @ NYM
Wind blowing in 10 mph at Citi Field tonight
Tonight's reading at Citi Field — Cloudy, 80°, wind 10 mph, In From RF. The air is taking runs off the board. The total sits at 7.5.
P final total 4 vs 7.5 (under lean)
regression_watchOAK @ CHW
Bryan Hudson: 2.25 ERA vs 3.57 xERA
Bryan Hudson carries a 2.25 ERA against a 3.57 expected ERA (1.32 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .255 off him vs a .238 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
ownedARI @ LAD
Ketel Marte vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: .333
In 15 career at-bats against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Ketel Marte is 5-for-15 for a 1.044 OPS (3 walks). The two square off again tonight. He enters hot (.847 OPS, L15).
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
running_gameCLE @ MIA
Cleveland Guardians like to run — Joe Mack (41% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Joe Mack owns a 41% caught-stealing rate (17 of 41) and Cleveland Guardians run anyway — 0.9 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Cleveland Guardians stole 4 bases
fantasy_pickupsCOL @ SF
Casey Schmitt
Pickup vs Kyle Freeland (5.78 xERA) — .804 OPS, bats 3rd.
starter_formNYY @ WSH
Cam Schlittler: 3.71 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 3.71 ERA over his last 17 innings with a 1.12 WHIP (0.93 season) — the 2.01 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
cooling_offLAA @ MIN
Tristan Gray: .327 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Ryan Johnson
Tristan Gray's .327 OPS over the last 15 days (27 PA) trails his .607 season mark, down 0.28. Tonight he draws RHP Ryan Johnson — his stronger side: a .614 OPS vs RHP across 146 AB.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB
regression_tomorrowCLE @ MIA
Tyler Phillips: 3.28 ERA vs 4.81 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs CLE. A 3.28 ERA against a 4.81 expected ERA (1.53 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .239 vs .262 expected.
first_inningCOL @ SF
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of COL @ SF
SF games have produced a first-inning run in 7 of their last 10; COL games in 8 of 10. Early runs have been the rule, not the exception.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
regression_tomorrowCOL @ SF
Trevor McDonald: 5.46 ERA vs 4.05 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs COL. A 5.46 ERA against a 4.05 expected ERA (1.41 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .266 vs .251 expected.
fantasy_pickupsARI @ LAD
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Streamer vs ARI — 3.31 xERA · 8.6 K/9 · 0.88 WHIP.
fantasy_pickupsNYY @ WSH
Paul Goldschmidt
Pickup vs PJ Poulin (5.52 xERA) — .802 OPS, bats 4th.
ballpark_shiftBOS @ NYM
Freddy Peralta's ERA drops to 4.07 at Citi Field
Freddy Peralta carries a 4.07 ERA over 11 games (59.7 IP) at Citi Field vs 5.58 across 40.3 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .241 off him here.
P 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
fantasy_pickupsTOR @ SD
Trey Yesavage
Streamer vs SD — 3.1 xERA · 8.3 K/9 · 1.08 WHIP.
running_gameCLE @ MIA
Miami Marlins like to run — Patrick Bailey (35% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Patrick Bailey owns a 35% caught-stealing rate (17 of 49) and Miami Marlins run anyway — 1.1 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Miami Marlins stole 1 base
running_gameTOR @ SD
Green light: San Diego Padres run, and Alejandro Kirk has caught just 13%
San Diego Padres steal 1 bags a game (96 on the season) and Alejandro Kirk has thrown out 4 of 32 runners (13%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
P San Diego Padres stole 3 bases
running_gameKC @ BAL
Kansas City Royals like to run — Adley Rutschman (37% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Adley Rutschman owns a 37% caught-stealing rate (16 of 43) and Kansas City Royals run anyway — 0.8 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Kansas City Royals stole 0 bases
bullpen_fatigueSEA @ TB
Tampa Bay Rays pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Tampa Bay Rays's bullpen has thrown 13 innings across their last 3 games, with 1 arm working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
ballpark_shiftNYY @ WSH
Miles Mikolas's ERA jumps to 6.45 at Nationals Park
Miles Mikolas carries a 6.45 ERA over 9 games (44.7 IP) at Nationals Park vs 5.12 across 45.7 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .287 off him here.
P 4 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
regression_tomorrowSEA @ TB
Emerson Hancock: 3.23 ERA vs 4.34 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TB. A 3.23 ERA against a 4.34 expected ERA (1.12 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .212 vs .252 expected.
running_gameSEA @ TB
Tampa Bay Rays like to run — Cal Raleigh (32% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Cal Raleigh owns a 32% caught-stealing rate (11 of 34) and Tampa Bay Rays run anyway — 0.9 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Tampa Bay Rays stole 2 bases
regression_tomorrowARI @ LAD
Emmet Sheehan: 4.91 ERA vs 3.94 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs ARI. A 4.91 ERA against a 3.94 expected ERA (0.97 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .247 vs .230 expected.
regression_tomorrowOAK @ CHW
J.T. Ginn: 3.1 ERA vs 4.05 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs CHW. A 3.1 ERA against a 4.05 expected ERA (0.95 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .214 vs .238 expected.
regression_tomorrowCOL @ SF
Michael Lorenzen: 6.46 ERA vs 5.45 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs SF. A 6.46 ERA against a 5.45 expected ERA (1.01 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .327 vs .289 expected.
running_gameOAK @ CHW
Chicago White Sox like to run — Shea Langeliers (36% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Chicago White Sox attempt 0.9 steals a game, but Shea Langeliers has cut down 16 of 45 runners (36%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Chicago White Sox stole 0 bases
regression_tomorrowSEA @ TB
Ian Seymour: 4.11 ERA vs 3.22 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs SEA. A 4.11 ERA against a 3.22 expected ERA (0.89 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .203 vs .207 expected.
regression_tomorrowLAA @ MIN
José Soriano: 3.4 ERA vs 4.28 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIN. A 3.4 ERA against a 4.28 expected ERA (0.88 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .219 vs .238 expected.
fantasy_pickupsMIL @ PIT
Ryan O'Hearn
Pickup vs Brandon Sproat (4.61 xERA) — .835 OPS, bats 5th.
first_inningSEA @ TB
SEA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Seattle Mariners have scored in the first inning just 0 times in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
fantasy_pickupsLAA @ MIN
Kody Clemens
Pickup vs Ryan Johnson (4.68 xERA) — .801 OPS, bats 4th.
ownedCHC @ CIN
Nico Hoerner vs Nick Lodolo: .368
Nico Hoerner has gone 7-for-19 (.368) across 19 career at-bats off Nick Lodolo. They meet again tonight. He enters cold (.540 OPS, L15).
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
regression_tomorrowMIL @ PIT
Paul Skenes: 3.58 ERA vs 2.74 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIL. A 3.58 ERA against a 2.74 expected ERA (0.84 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .219 vs .204 expected.
fantasy_pickupsMIL @ PIT
Shane Drohan
Streamer vs PIT — 3.49 xERA · 8.6 K/9 · 1.24 WHIP.
running_gameBOS @ NYM
Green light: Boston Red Sox run, and Francisco Alvarez has caught just 16%
Boston Red Sox steal 0.8 bags a game (72 on the season) and Francisco Alvarez has thrown out 4 of 25 runners (16%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
P Boston Red Sox stole 0 bases
fantasy_pickupsMIL @ PIT
Brandon Lowe
Pickup vs Brandon Sproat (4.61 xERA) — .805 OPS, bats 2nd.
situationalSwitzerland @ Argentina
Argentina v Switzerland: lineup in doubt
Projected XI — but jaquez is a game-time call. Confirmed sheet posts ~2h before kickoff.
ballparkENG @ NOR
Norway vs England: warm at Hard Rock Stadium
87°F at kickoff — warm enough to weigh on legs across 90+ minutes. Conditions at Hard Rock Stadium: 87°F, 7 mph wind, 8% rain.
ballparkSUI @ ARG
Argentina vs Switzerland: warm at Arrowhead Stadium
86°F at kickoff — warm enough to weigh on legs across 90+ minutes. Conditions at Arrowhead Stadium: 86°F, 6 mph wind, 0% rain.
fantasy_pickupsMIL @ PIT
Nick Gonzales
Pickup vs Brandon Sproat (4.61 xERA) — .765 OPS, bats 6th.
situationalEngland @ Norway
Norway v England: lineup in doubt
Projected XI — but guehi, rice are a game-time call. Confirmed sheet posts ~2h before kickoff.
first_inningPHI @ DET
PHI have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Philadelphia Phillies have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningMIL @ PIT
MIL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Milwaukee Brewers have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningARI @ LAD
ARI strike first: 1st-inning runs in 7 of their last 10
Arizona Diamondbacks have put up a first-inning run in 7 of their last 10 games — they jump on starters early and the YRFI side of their games has been doing the work.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningMIL @ PIT
MIL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Milwaukee Brewers have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

Graded results

Games

W
Pirates ML -116
MLB · 6-7
W
White Sox ML -124
MLB · 0-1
L
Braves ML -104
MLB · 1-4
W
Astros ML -104
MLB · 9-3
W
Twins ML -172
MLB · 3-5
W
Giants ML -146
MLB · 2-4
W
Yankees -1.5 -120
MLB · 4-2
L
Miami Marlins ML -158
MLB · 4-1
W
Red Sox ML +124
MLB · 4-0
W
Cubs ML -104
MLB · 5-3
L
Mariners ML -104
MLB · 1-6
L
Dodgers -1.5 -125
MLB · 9-2
W
Norway +0.5 -110
WC · 1-1
W
Under 2.5 +120
WC · 1-1
L
Argentina ML -140
WC · 1-1
L
Tigers ML +120
MLB · 4-2
W
Orioles ML -154
MLB · 1-6
W
Under 2.5 -160
WC · 1-1
L
Blue Jays ML -104
MLB · 7-8

Props

L
Ben Rice · over
Yankees @ Nationals · Actual 0
W
Ben Rice · over
Yankees @ Nationals · Actual 2
L
Bobby Witt Jr. · over
Royals @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Bryan Reynolds · over
Brewers @ Pirates · Actual 0
L
Cal Raleigh · over
Mariners @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Dansby Swanson · over
Cubs @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Elly De La Cruz · over
Cubs @ Reds · Actual 2
L
Elly De La Cruz · over
Cubs @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Freddie Freeman · over
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers · Actual 1
L
Gregor Kobel · over
Switzerland @ Argentina · Actual 4
W
Harry Kane · over
England @ Norway · Actual 2
L
Heliot Ramos · over
Rockies @ Giants · Actual 1
L
Jordan Walker · over
Braves @ Cardinals · Actual 0
W
Juan Soto · over
Red Sox @ Mets · Actual 1
L
Junior Caminero · under
Mariners @ Rays · Actual 1
L
Junior Caminero · over
Mariners @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Kazuma Okamoto · over
Blue Jays @ Padres · Actual 0
L
Kazuma Okamoto · over
Blue Jays @ Padres · Actual 0
L
Lionel Messi · over
Switzerland @ Argentina · Actual 0
L
Matt Olson · over
Braves @ Cardinals · Actual 1
L
Miguel Vargas · over
Athletics @ White Sox · Actual 0
L
Otto Lopez · over
Guardians @ Marlins · Actual 0
L
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Cubs @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Rafael Devers · over
Rockies @ Giants · Actual 0
W
Randy Arozarena · over
Mariners @ Rays · Actual 1
L
Spencer Torkelson · over
Phillies @ Tigers · Actual 0
L
Trevor Larnach · over
Angels @ Twins · Actual 1
W
Yordan Alvarez · over
Astros @ Rangers · Actual 6