Yankees at Nationals
O/U 9 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Nationals Park
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Yankees -1.5 -120
- Published odds
- -120
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 4-2
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
A hot, cloudy afternoon in the nation's capital sets the stage as the Yankees look to secure another win on the road against the Nationals. Cam Schlittler takes the mound for New York, and he has been a complete road warrior this season, carrying an elite 1.04 ERA away from home. While Washington’s left-handed hitters like James Wood and Luis Garcia Jr. have posted strong numbers against right-handed fastballs, Schlittler's overall dominance is hard to ignore, especially when contrasted with Washington’s volatile pitching situation. The Nationals are scheduled to send PJ Poulin to the mound, a pitcher whose 2.83 ERA is masking some major trouble under the hood, as evidenced by a 5.52 xERA and a 1.31 WHIP. When Poulin exits, Washington will likely rely on Miles Mikolas, who has struggled significantly with a 5.78 ERA.
This massive starting pitching disparity is amplified by the physical environment and the bullpen dynamics. With temperatures hovering around 88°F and a 9 mph wind blowing out to right field, Nationals Park is primed for offensive output. The Yankees' bats have been locked in, averaging 8.5 runs over their last two games despite the established absences of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Ben Rice, who boasts a stellar 1.046 OPS and 21 home runs against right-handed pitchers, is primed to exploit a high-contact bulk pitcher like Mikolas. Furthermore, the wind blowing out to right field directly favors left-handed pull power, creating a perfect storm for Rice, Cody Bellinger, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. to produce extra-base hits.
Once this matchup transitions to the later innings, the Yankees' advantage becomes even more pronounced. New York boasts a highly reliable 3.40 bullpen ERA, whereas Washington's relief corps has struggled to a 5.05 ERA and leads the majors with 26 blown saves. While both teams enter with a 63 fatigue score, the Yankees possess superior depth to navigate a high-scoring environment, while Washington is also missing outfielder Jacob Young due to a hand injury. The combination of Schlittler's brilliance, a fragile Nationals pitching staff, and late-game bullpen execution makes the Yankees on the run line the sharpest bet on the board tonight.
Injuries noted
Nationals: [KNOWN] Jake Irvin (SP) — Shoulder (Right): Irvin (shoulder) is slated to face live hitters in batting practice Wednesday, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports. (Jul 6 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Ken Waldichuk (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Left): Waldichuk (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery and an internal brace procedure April 21 and is hopeful to return to game action at some point early in the 2027 season, Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com reports. (Jun 11 — 30d ago) [KNOWN] Josiah Gray (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Gray (elbow) has resumed a throwing program, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports. (May 8 — 64d ago) [KNOWN] Mitchell Parker (RP) — Elbow (Left): The Nationals transferred Parker (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday. (Jul 1 — 9d ago) [KNOWN] Richard Lovelady (RP) — Triceps (Left): The Nationals placed Lovelady on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left triceps strain. (Jun 29 — 11d ago) [NEW] Brad Lord (RP) — Side (Left): The Nationals placed Lord on the 15-day injured list Thursday with left side tightness. (Jul 9 — 1d ago) Yankees: [KNOWN] Max Fried (SP) — Elbow (Left): Fried (elbow) threw a successful 36-pitch live batting practice session Sunday and will face hitters again Thursday or Friday before embarking on a rehab assignment, Jorge Castillo of ESPN.com reports. (Jul 5 — 6d ago) [NEW] Giancarlo Stanton (Designated Hitter) — Calf (Right): Yankees GM Brian Cashman said Thursday that Stanton (calf) has resumed running after receiving a PRP injection, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports. (Jul 9 — 2d ago) [NEW] Aaron Judge (RF) — Ribs (Right): Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said Thursday that Judge will get follow-up imaging on his injured rib during the All-Star break, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports. (Jul 9 — 2d ago) [NEW] Carlos Rodon (SP) — Elbow (Left): Rodon (elbow) will play catch Thursday, Meredith Marakovits of YES Network reports. (Jul 9 — 2d ago)
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Cam Schlittler: 3.71 ERA over his last 3 starts
3.71He is carrying a 3.71 ERA over his last 17 innings with a 1.12 WHIP (0.93 season) — the 2.01 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
PLATOON EDGE
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot
1.091Paul Goldschmidt's vs. Left line (1.091 OPS, 99 AB) sits well above his .584 mark the other way (136 AB). Tonight's starter PJ Poulin throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
.924Luis Garcia Jr.'s vs. Right line (.924 OPS, 258 AB) sits well above his .599 mark the other way (38 AB). Tonight's starter Cam Schlittler throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
HEAT CHECK
Luis Garcia Jr.: 1.361 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.361The last 15 days sample runs 49 PA: a 1.361 OPS versus .883 for the season, 0.478 above his norm. He has 20 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
James Wood: 1.396 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.396Over the last 15 days (47 PA) he is at a 1.396 OPS, up 0.433 on his .963 season mark. He has 26 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
COOLING OFF
Paul Goldschmidt: .126 OPS in L15 — draws LHP PJ Poulin
.126Paul Goldschmidt's .126 OPS over the last 15 days (39 PA) trails his .802 season mark, down 0.676. Tonight he draws LHP PJ Poulin — his stronger side: a 1.091 OPS vs LHP across 99 AB.
Cody Bellinger: .373 OPS in L15 — draws LHP PJ Poulin
.373Cody Bellinger's .373 OPS over the last 15 days (52 PA) trails his .756 season mark, down 0.383. Tonight he draws LHP PJ Poulin — his stronger side: a .761 OPS vs LHP across 119 AB.
HR THREAT
Ben Rice
+330This is the 'Gary Special'—doubling down on Rice because the logic for the home run is identical to the total bases case. Rice is seeing the ball perfectly right now, and Mikolas is a pitcher who works in the zone but has been unable to miss bats or keep the ball in the park recently.
BALLPARK
PJ Poulin's ERA jumps to 3.94 at Nationals Park
3.94PJ Poulin carries a 3.94 ERA over 16 games (16 IP) at Nationals Park vs 1.89 across 19 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .226 off him here.
Miles Mikolas's ERA jumps to 6.45 at Nationals Park
6.45Miles Mikolas carries a 6.45 ERA over 9 games (44.7 IP) at Nationals Park vs 5.12 across 45.7 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .287 off him here.
SITUATIONAL
NYY's pen has logged 12.3 innings across its last 3 games
12.33 games, 12.3 innings out of the pen — Angel Chivilli (3) and David Bednar (2) carried the load. WSH's pen has thrown 11.3 over the same span.
REGRESSION
PJ Poulin: 2.83 ERA vs 5.52 xERA
5.52PJ Poulin carries a 2.83 ERA against a 5.52 expected ERA (2.69 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .208 off him vs a .259 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
FANTASY PICKUPS
Paul Goldschmidt
.802 OPSPickup vs PJ Poulin (5.52 xERA) — .802 OPS, bats 4th.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored July 11, 2026 at 11:17 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKBEN RICETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
Rice is in the midst of a historic power surge, and this matchup against Miles Mikolas is a dream scenario. Mikolas is a contact pitcher who has been struggling significantly, posting a 6.66 ERA over his last five starts and lacking the swing-and-miss stuff to neutralize a hitter in Rice's current form. As a left-handed hitter with pull-side power, Rice is the primary beneficiary of the 9 mph wind blowing toward the right-field porch and the thinning air from the 89-degree heat. A single extra-base hit or two singles from the Yankees' hottest hitter clears this line.
- THE LONG SHOTBEN RICEHR OVER 0.5
This is the 'Gary Special'—doubling down on Rice because the logic for the home run is identical to the total bases case. Rice is seeing the ball perfectly right now, and Mikolas is a pitcher who works in the zone but has been unable to miss bats or keep the ball in the park recently. The combination of Rice's scorching form and the weather conditions (high heat and wind blowing out to right) makes this a high-value play for a player who has already cleared the fence 29 times this year.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery MLB game this dayThe MLB recordToday's MLB picksEvery sport this day