Brewers at Pirates
O/U 15.5 · RL Pirates -1.5 · PNC Park
Pirates ML-116
CONF 68%
WCashedFinal 6-7
The read
An overcast Saturday afternoon at PNC Park sets the stage for a critical NL Central battle as the Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers play the first leg of a split doubleheader. With the threat of afternoon thunderstorms looming, securing an early advantage on the mound is paramount.
The pitching matchup heavily favors the home side in Game 1. Braxton Ashcraft has been a rock for Pittsburgh, carrying a 3.24 ERA, a 3.17 xERA, and a tidy 1.10 WHIP over 108.1 innings. Ashcraft is especially dangerous during day games, where he boasts an outstanding 2.63 ERA. He relies on a devastating slider and curveball combination—both holding opponents to a sub-.250 expected weighted on-base average—to keep hitters off balance. Conversely, Milwaukee sends Brandon Sproat to the hill, who has struggled to a 5.13 ERA and a 5.74 ERA in day splits. Sproat's cutter has been a liability, yielding a .348 expected weighted on-base average to opposing batters, which spells trouble against a physical Pirates order.
Despite being without some key bats, Pittsburgh's current active lineup has been striking the ball with authority, averaging a 10.7% barrel rate and a .378 expected weighted on-base average over their last three games. Switch-hitting star Bryan Reynolds has been electric at home, batting .319 with a .988 OPS at PNC Park, while Esmerlyn Valdez holds a punishing .444 expected weighted on-base average against four-seamers. The Pirates' offense matches up exceptionally well against Sproat's high-velocity, cutter-heavy mix. With thunderstorms forecasted to move in after 2:00 PM ET, an early lead generated by these hot bats against Sproat is highly likely to stand up.
While Milwaukee has the superior overall team record and a top-tier bullpen, the specific circumstances of Game 1 point directly to the Pirates. The Brewers enter without Jackson Chourio in the starting lineup and have generated a more modest 7.9% barrel rate and .334 expected weighted on-base average in recent contests. At a near-even price of -116 on the moneyline, we are getting a premier starting pitcher in his ideal daytime environment facing a volatile opposing starter who struggles on the road and in the light of day. Lay the small price on the home favorite.
Injuries noted
Pirates: [NEW] Oneil Cruz (CF) — Hand (Left): Cruz (hand) has resumed swinging a bat, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports. (Jul 7 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Wilber Dotel (RP) — Lat (Right): Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that Dotel (lat) will make another rehab appearance with a minor-league affiliate Tuesday, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (Jul 6 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Chris Devenski (RP) — Illness (Not Specified): Devenski (illness) was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday. (Jun 7 — 33d ago) [NEW] Spencer Horwitz (1B) — Hamstring (Left): Horwitz (hamstring) has begun a running program at the Pirates' spring training complex in Florida, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports. (Jul 7 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Evan Sisk (RP) — Elbow (Left): Sisk was placed on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (Jul 4 — 7d ago) [NEW] Endy Rodriguez (C) — Lower Body (Left): Rodriguez (hip) is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game versus Atlanta. (Jul 8 — 2d ago) [NEW] Konnor Griffin (SS) — Finger (Left): The Pirates transferred Griffin (finger) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports. (Jul 11 — 0d ago) Brewers: [KNOWN] DL Hall (RP) — Pectoral (Left): Hall (pectoral) has progressed to throwing on flat ground from 60-to-75 feet, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports. (Jun 30 — 10d ago) [NEW] Brandon Lockridge (LF) — Knee (Right): The Brewers transferred Lockridge (knee) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday. (Jul 7 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Coleman Crow (SP) — Forearm (Right): Crow (forearm) will throw a live batting practice session Tuesday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports. (Jun 30 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Brian Fitzpatrick (RP) — Elbow (Left): Fitzpatrick (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery over the past week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (Jul 4 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Carlos Rodriguez (RP) — Shoulder (Right): Rodriguez (shoulder) struck out a batter and allowed three earned runs on two hits and one walk across 1.1 innings Wednesday in a rehab start for the Brewers' rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiiate. (Jul 2 — 8d ago) [KNOWN] Rob Zastryzny (RP) — Shoulder (Left): Zastryzny (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with the Brewers' rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiliate Friday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (Jul 3 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Angel Zerpa (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Left): The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday. (May 31 — 40d ago) [KNOWN] Joel Kuhnel (RP) — Shoulder (Right): The Brewers placed Kuhnel on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to July 3, due to a right shoulder injury. (Jul 4 — 6d ago) [NEW] Brandon Woodruff (SP) — Shoulder (Right): Medical imaging revealed an injury to Woodruff's right anterior shoulder capsule Wednesday, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (Jul 8 — 2d ago) [NEW] David Hamilton (3B) — Hamstring (Left): The Brewers placed Hamilton on the 10-day injured list Tuesday due to a strained left hamstring. (Jul 7 — 3d ago) [NEW] Kyle Harrison (SP) — Forearm (Left): Harrison said after Wednesday's loss to the Cardinals that he has been dealing with soreness on the outside of his elbow over the past few weeks, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. (Jul 11 — 0d ago)
Props on this game
1Bryan ReynoldsOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+135
LActual 0
Bryan Reynolds is a fundamentally different hitter within the confines of PNC Park. His .988 home OPS and .319 home average are elite, and he enters this game in productive form with three home runs over his last 10 games.
He draws a highly favorable matchup against the rookie Brandon Sproat, who has been shelled in day starts this season to the tune of a 5.74 ERA. Sproat's primary weakness is contact quality; he allows a 43.4% hard-hit rate and a high 8.6% barrel rate.
Reynolds, a switch-hitter, can exploit Sproat's vulnerability to extra-base hits from both sides of the plate. Given that Sproat also struggles with home runs (14 allowed in 79 innings), Reynolds' ability to find the gaps or clear the fence makes the 1.5 total bases line look conservative at a significant plus-money price.
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