Cubs at Reds
O/U 10 · RL Reds -1.5 · Great American Ball Park
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Cubs ML -104
- Published odds
- -104
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 5-3
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
Welcome to a muggy, high-stakes Saturday night at Great American Ball Park, where the Chicago Cubs look to even up the series against the Cincinnati Reds under a threatening Ohio sky. With storm clouds hovering and the wind blowing out to right-center, this division battle is primed for fireworks on the basepaths and over the fence.
This game comes down to a starting pitching mismatch that the market hasn't fully priced in. Nick Lodolo takes the hill for the Reds, but his 4.68 ERA is a massive illusion. Baseball Savant's expected metrics show a pitcher on the brink of disaster, with an xERA at a bloated 6.12 and an opponent xwOBA of .354. Lodolo's primary pitch is a highly vulnerable sinker (28.7% usage) that has surrendered a .333 batting average and a .475 xwOBA. The Cubs' top of the order absolutely decimates that specific pitch, with Seiya Suzuki hitting .373 and Pete Crow-Armstrong boasting a .432 xwOBA against sinkers. Furthermore, Suzuki has career-long dominance against Lodolo, putting up a 1.133 OPS with 10 walks in 25 plate appearances. Ian Happ (.348 batting average, 1.096 OPS in 23 career at-bats) and Crow-Armstrong (.444 average) have also owned Lodolo historically. Since Lodolo also struggles mightily against right-handed hitters, giving up 7 home runs to righties this season, the righty-heavy heart of the Chicago lineup is set up to tee off in a ballpark with a 1.1 home-run factor.
While Javier Assad has his own road struggles, carrying a 5.90 road ERA, he is backed by a much superior overall ball club. The Cubs sit at 52-42 with a +0.65 run-differential-per-game, compared to Cincinnati’s sub-.500 record of 43-50 and a -0.28 run-differential. Defensively, the Cubs represent a much cleaner operation, committing just 37 errors to Cincinnati's 50 and holding a massive advantage behind the plate, throwing out 35.8% of runners compared to the Reds' 22.7%. Chicago's defense will provide the steady support Assad needs on a humid, high-variance night. With the Cubs offered at -104 on the moneyline, we are getting the significantly stronger team with a massive, proven batter-pitcher matchup edge at a near-even price. Take the Cubs to bounce back and secure the victory.
Injuries noted
Reds: [KNOWN] Graham Ashcraft (RP) — Elbow (Right): Ashcraft is expected to resume throwing soon after receiving good news Tuesday regarding the imaging on his injured right elbow UCL, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 30 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): Williamson (shoulder) injured his finger while working out, and his rehab program has been pushed back by about 10 days as a result, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 28 — 13d ago) [KNOWN] Blake Dunn (CF) — Elbow (Right): Dunn (elbow) hoped to resume baseball activity Saturday but was not ready, MLB.com reports. (Jul 5 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Tony Santillan (RP) — Oblique (Left): Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI on Santillan's left oblique showed a significant strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 26 — 15d ago) [KNOWN] Dane Myers (CF) — Shoulder (Left): Myers received an injection in the AC joint of his left shoulder Saturday, MLB.com reports. (Jul 5 — 6d ago) [NEW] Matt McLain (2B) — Calf (Not Specified): The Reds placed McLain on the 10-day injured list with a strained calf, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jul 10 — 1d ago) Cubs: [KNOWN] Porter Hodge (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 64d ago) [KNOWN] Cade Horton (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 64d ago) [KNOWN] Matt Shaw (RF) — Hand (Left): Shaw (hand) won't be activated from the injured list until after the All-Star break, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports. (Jul 4 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Daniel Palencia (RP) — Elbow (Right): Palencia (elbow) is progressing in his rehab from elbow tendinitis, but he won't be activated from the injured list until after the All-Star break, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports. (Jun 27 — 13d ago) [KNOWN] Hoby Milner (RP) — Abdomen (Not Specified): Milner (abdomen) will be sidelined 4-to-6 weeks after undergoing emergency appendectomy surgery on Friday, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports. (Jun 27 — 13d ago) [NEW] Jameson Taillon (SP) — Hamstring (Left): Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Tuesday that Taillon (hamstring) is expected to make another rehab start before returning from the 15-day injured list, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports. (Jul 7 — 3d ago) [NEW] Phil Maton (RP) — Knee (Right): Maton (knee) will report to Triple-A Iowa on Wednesday to begin a rehab assignment. (Jul 8 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Ben Brown (RP) — Neck (Not Specified): Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Thursday that Brown has been diagnosed with a stress reaction in his neck and will have limited activity for the next month, 104.3 The Score reports. (Jun 25 — 16d ago) [KNOWN] Edward Cabrera (SP) — Hamstring (Left): Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Cabrera (hamstring) resumed a throwing program this weekend, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports. (Jul 6 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Riley Martin (RP) — Elbow (Left): The Cubs announced June 10 that Martin (elbow) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports. (Jun 21 — 19d ago) [KNOWN] Hunter Harvey (Relief Pitcher) — Triceps (Right): The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday. (May 17 — 55d ago) [KNOWN] Ethan Roberts (RP) — Forearm (Right): The Cubs placed Roberts on the 15-day injured list Monday due to right forearm inflammation. (Jun 29 — 11d ago)
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Nick Lodolo: 0.60 ERA over his last 3 starts
0.60Across his last 3 starts (15 IP) he has a 0.60 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP (1.46 season) and 14 strikeouts — his season mark is 4.68, and that is where most lines still price him.
BATTER VS ARM
Seiya Suzuki vs Nick Lodolo: .333
.333Seiya Suzuki has gone 5-for-15 (.333) across 15 career at-bats off Nick Lodolo. They meet again tonight. He enters hot (1.024 OPS, L15).
Nico Hoerner vs Nick Lodolo: .368
.368Nico Hoerner has gone 7-for-19 (.368) across 19 career at-bats off Nick Lodolo. They meet again tonight. He enters cold (.540 OPS, L15).
COOLING OFF
Ian Happ: .505 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Nick Lodolo
.505Ian Happ's .505 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .759 season mark, down 0.254. Tonight he draws LHP Nick Lodolo — his weaker side: a .546 OPS vs LHP across 100 AB.
HR THREAT
Elly De La Cruz
+390This play is about targeting the specific vulnerability Javier Assad has shown against left-handed power this season. Assad has surrendered 80% of his home runs (8 of 10) to lefties, and tonight he faces one of the most explosive left-handed hitters in the game in his own backyard.
BALLPARK
Nick Lodolo's ERA jumps to 5.50 at Great American Ball Park
5.50Nick Lodolo carries a 5.50 ERA over 7 games (36 IP) at Great American Ball Park vs 3.32 across 21.7 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .288 off him here.
TEAM RECORD
Cubs 7-1 in Javier Assad's last 8 starts
7-1Cubs are 7-1 in Javier Assad's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 5 in a row. He starts tonight.
REGRESSION
Nick Lodolo: 4.68 ERA vs 6.13 xERA
6.13Nick Lodolo carries a 4.68 ERA against a 6.13 expected ERA (1.45 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .278 off him vs a .291 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
FANTASY PICKUPS
Seiya Suzuki
.819 OPSPickup vs Nick Lodolo (6.12 xERA) — .819 OPS, bats 2nd.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored July 11, 2026 at 11:17 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
4- GARY'S PICKPETE CROW-ARMSTRONGTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
Pete Crow-Armstrong is currently in the most productive stretch of his young career, recently becoming the first player in MLB to reach the 20/20 mark this season. His recent form is staggering, posting a .400 average with four home runs over his last 10 games.
While he faces a left-handed starter in Nick Lodolo, PCA has maintained a strong .292 average and .863 OPS against southpaws this season. The driving force here is the massive discrepancy in Lodolo's underlying metrics; while his ERA sits at 4.68, his xERA is a bloated 6.12, suggesting he is consistently giving up hard contact that hasn't fully hurt him yet.
In a park as small as Great American Ball Park, that luck usually runs out. Crow-Armstrong bats leadoff, ensuring maximum plate appearances to find the two bases needed to cash.
- GARY'S PICKELLY DE LA CRUZTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
Elly De La Cruz is a fundamentally different hitter at Great American Ball Park, where his OPS jumps to 1.000 compared to a pedestrian .685 on the road. Tonight he faces Javier Assad, a right-hander whose metrics also point toward regression (4.65 xERA vs. 4.15 ERA).
Critically, Assad has a pronounced platoon split, allowing an .807 OPS to left-handed hitters compared to just .572 against righties. As a switch-hitter batting from the left side, Elly sits in his most favorable statistical pocket. With his elite speed, any ball into the gap is a double, and his power plays exceptionally well in this venue.
Despite the boom-or-bust nature of his game, the combination of home-field comfort and Assad's struggles against lefties provides a clear path to two total bases.
- THE LONG SHOTELLY DE LA CRUZHR OVER 0.5
This play is about targeting the specific vulnerability Javier Assad has shown against left-handed power this season. Assad has surrendered 80% of his home runs (8 of 10) to lefties, and tonight he faces one of the most explosive left-handed hitters in the game in his own backyard.
Elly De La Cruz is a statistical monster at Great American Ball Park, sporting a 1.000 OPS and 10 homers at home compared to a pedestrian .685 OPS on the road. Assad is a prime regression candidate given the gap between his 4.15 ERA and his 4.65 xERA, and his nearly 50% hard-hit rate allowed is a recipe for disaster in this venue.
Elly has already taken Assad deep once in their limited history, and given the pitcher's specific handedness splits, the +390 price offers significant value for a longball in Cincinnati.
- THE LONG SHOTDANSBY SWANSONHR OVER 0.5
While Swanson's .213 season average might scare off the casual bettor, his history against Nick Lodolo is impossible to ignore for a prop at this price. Swanson has taken Lodolo deep twice in just 16 career at-bats, showing he sees the lefty's release point exceptionally well.
Lodolo has been a 'righty-friendly' pitcher this year, surrendering 7 of his 8 total home runs to right-handed batters. Furthermore, Lodolo's 6.12 xERA is one of the highest on the slate, suggesting he is consistently giving up much harder contact than his surface numbers indicate.
In a park that inflates home run totals and facing a pitcher who is statistically due for a massive correction in the runs-allowed department, Swanson’s history of individual success against Lodolo makes him the top Cubs candidate to clear the fence.
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