Daily archive

2026-07-08

The stored Gary board for Wed, Jul 8. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB3:45 PM

Blue Jays @ Giants

Welcome to a sunny afternoon at Oracle Park, where the wind is blowing out toward center field and the stage is set for a classic rubber match between the Toronto Blue Jays and the San Francisco Giants. My money is on the visiting Blue Jays today because they hold a distinct advantage on the mound. Dylan Cease is an absolute strikeout artist with a 2.79 ERA and 137 strikeouts in 90.1 innings this season. Over his last five starts, he has been in peak form, recording 45 strikeouts in 28.1 innings. While the Giants' lineup features five left-handed batters to gain a platoon advantage, Cease has actually dominated lefties this year, holding them to a .192 batting average and a .596 OPS. Because Cease gets so many swings and misses, he doesn't have to rely on his defense or worry about balls in play under today's windy conditions. The bullpen discrepancy further tilts the scales in Toronto's favor. While the Blue Jays can call upon a rested, elite late-inning core featuring Tyler Rogers and closer Louis Varland, the Giants' relief unit is severely depleted. Matt Gage recently landed on the injured list, and Spencer Bivens is likely unavailable after throwing 51 pitches. If Logan Webb struggles or runs up a high pitch count early, San Francisco has very little reliable depth to bridge the gap. While Webb is a quality starter, his 3.66 ERA masks a 4.00 xERA, indicating some regression is on the horizon. Furthermore, Toronto's hitters have 21 career at-bats of familiarity against him, whereas the Giants' hitters have never faced Cease. With a superior starting pitcher in prime form, an elite and healthy bullpen, and an offense with the tools to exploit Webb's regression, backing the Blue Jays on the moneyline at a reasonable price is the smartest play on the board.

Blue Jays ML-126

CONF

78%

MLB6:35 PM

Cubs @ Orioles

A warm summer evening sets the stage at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, where the Baltimore Orioles look to even the series against the visiting Chicago Cubs under a partly cloudy sky with wind blowing out to left field. This matchup heavily favors the Orioles on the mound, specifically due to Colin Rea's extreme splits. Rea has been a completely different pitcher away from Wrigley Field, posting a 6.60 road ERA compared to a 2.72 mark at home. Tonight, he faces a Baltimore lineup that is built to expose his primary weakness: left-handed hitters. Rea has surrendered a .310 batting average and an .835 OPS to lefties this season. Baltimore rolls out six left-handed or switch-hitting bats—including Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Samuel Basallo, Dylan Beavers, Colton Cowser, and Jackson Holliday—to relentlessly pressure Rea from the left side. While Baltimore has struggled to turn hits into runs lately, their underlying offensive quality is primed for positive regression. Over their last three games, the Orioles have registered a robust .373 expected wOBA and a sharp 91.4 mph average exit velocity. Power bats like Pete Alonso (.458 xwOBA against four-seamers) and Taylor Ward (.365 average against sinkers) match up perfectly against Rea’s fastball-heavy repertoire. On the pitching side, Dean Kremer offers a highly reliable option at home, holding a 2.45 home ERA and a solid 33.3% hard-hit rate. Additionally, the bullpen dynamic is a massive edge for the Orioles. While they are navigating fresh injuries to Ryan Helsley and Keegan Akin, their primary high-leverage arms like Tyler Wells and Yennier Cano are completely rested and have not thrown since July 4. Conversely, the Cubs' bullpen is in a precarious situation. Chicago’s primary late-inning options—Trent Thornton, Jacob Webb, and Tyler Ferguson—all worked in yesterday's victory, with Thornton and Webb having pitched twice in the last three days. With a warm 83°F night and wind blowing out to left, any starter who fails to go deep will force a tired bullpen into action. Given Rea's road struggles and his propensity to allow hard contact (41.6% hard-hit rate), he is unlikely to keep this potent Baltimore lineup at bay. The Orioles' rested relief core and their devastating left-handed matchup advantage will carry them to victory. Back the home team to take care of business on the moneyline.

Orioles ML-126

CONF

85%

MLB6:40 PM

Athletics @ Tigers

An early evening clash at Comerica Park brings a contrast of trajectories as the surging Detroit Tigers host the sliding Oakland Athletics on a warm Michigan night. With the sun setting over the deep outfield walls, this matchup presents a clear-cut betting opportunity where the market has simply left too much value on the home side. The pitching matchup is where this handicap begins and ends. Troy Melton has been nearly untouchable for the Tigers, compiling a stellar 4-1 record with a 2.05 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP across 44.0 innings. Melton has completely suppressed contact from opponents, holding left-handed hitters to a .151 average and right-handed hitters to a .180 average. On the other bump, Jeffrey Springs has been in a sustained tailspin for the Athletics, entering with a 3-8 record, a 5.79 ERA, and a 1.38 WHIP. Springs has surrendered 24 home runs on the season and has been shelled to the tune of a 9.89 ERA over his last five starts. Tonight, Springs must navigate a Detroit lineup featuring six right-handed bats, which is disastrous given his brutal .273 average and .874 OPS allowed to righties this season. Beyond the starting arms, the supporting casts and recent forms paint a highly lopsided picture. The Tigers enter tonight riding a three-game winning streak and a hot 7-3 stretch over their last 10 games, posting a plus-22 run differential. The Athletics are headed in the opposite direction, mired in a four-game losing streak and a cold 2-8 skid with a minus-21 run differential. While Oakland gets a boost with Tyler Soderstrom returning to the cleanup spot today, it is not enough to overcome the bullpen disparity. Detroit boasts a reliable 3.73 bullpen ERA with a fresh Kenley Jansen and Kyle Finnegan ready to lock down the late frames. Meanwhile, Oakland's relief corps carries a weak 5.11 ERA and is severely taxed in the middle innings. At -134, the price on a dominant home starter against a struggling lefty who is prone to giving up the long ball is an absolute steal.

Tigers ML-134

CONF

82%

MLB6:40 PM

Braves @ Pirates

Under the warm evening skies at PNC Park, the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves look to halt a rare three-game skid as they continue their road series against the surging Pittsburgh Pirates. This matchup presents a beautiful situational spot to grab plus-money on a premier team that matches up perfectly with the opposing starter. My read tonight centers on the extreme platoon vulnerability of Pittsburgh starter Jared Jones, which plays directly into the teeth of Atlanta's left-handed core. Jones has been absolutely hammered by left-handed hitters this season, surrendering a .299 batting average and a massive .932 OPS to lefties. He also struggles immensely when pitching in front of his home crowd, posting a dismal 6.92 Home ERA. The Braves' lineup features five left-handed or switch-hitters batting from the left side, including Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies, Drake Baldwin, Mike Yastrzemski, and Matt Olson, who carries a spectacular 0.971 Away OPS. In an 85°F environment with the wind blowing out to right field, these left-handed bats are primed to inflict heavy damage against Jones at his worst venue. On the mound, Grant Holmes has provided stable command for the Braves, offering a 3.83 ERA over 16 starts. While his 4.62 xERA suggests regression is possible, Holmes has held left-handed hitters to a steady .228 batting average and .736 OPS, which matches up well against a Pirates lineup featuring prominent left-handed bats like Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn. Additionally, while the Pirates have been hot, Atlanta has a significant late-inning rest advantage. Yesterday's blowout allowed the Braves to preserve their premier high-leverage arms like closer Raisel Iglesias (2.37 ERA), while Pittsburgh's primary setup arm Carmen Mlodzinski is likely unavailable after a 24-pitch, two-inning appearance yesterday. With a rested high-leverage bullpen ready to shut the door and a glaring matchup advantage against Jones, backing the Braves as a plus-money underdog is the sharp bet tonight.

Braves ML+102

CONF

68%

MLB6:40 PM

Yankees @ Rays

The lights are bright under the dome at Tropicana Field as the first-place Tampa Bay Rays look to tighten their grip on the American League East against a sliding divisional rival in the New York Yankees. With two of the division's premier arms taking the mound, this Wednesday night clash has all the makings of a classic midsummer battle where every single mistake will be magnified. My money tonight is riding on the Rays moneyline at -118, and it comes down to a glaring gap in home-away performance and current offensive momentum. Tampa Bay has been nearly unstoppable at home this season with a spectacular 32-13 record, while the Yankees have been in a free-fall, losing 10 of their last 12 games overall. Shane McClanahan is on the hill for the Rays, and he has been a complete lockdown artist at Tropicana Field with a superb 2.21 Home ERA. He also holds a devastating matchup edge against the Yankees' remaining left-handed bats; McClanahan has held lefties to a microscopic .148 batting average and a .530 OPS. This spells trouble for a Yankee lineup struggling to find its footing, having struck out 34 times in the first two games of this series. With Paul Goldschmidt mired in a brutal 0-for-30 slump and Ben Rice hitting just .200 since June 1, New York simply doesn't have the current firepower to consistently threaten the Rays' left-hander. On the other side, Gerrit Cole has really struggled on the road this year, posting a bloated 4.87 Away ERA. He faces a major challenge against a righty-heavy Rays lineup that is uniquely built to expose his platoon struggles, as Cole has surrendered a .296 average and a .789 OPS to right-handed hitters. Tampa Bay's premier right-handed bats, Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero, are absolute terrors at home, boasting Home OPS marks of 1.088 and 1.059 respectively. Combine this localized offensive advantage with the Rays' elite team defense, which ranks near the top of the league with a +33 Team DRS compared to the Yankees' flat 0 DRS, and the Rays have a massive edge in run prevention. Even if the Rays' bullpen is slightly more taxed than New York's, having the elite Bryan Baker (1.78 ERA, 24 saves) and Cam Booser (1.35 ERA) available to lock down the late frames gives me all the confidence I need to back the home team at a very reasonable price.

Rays ML-118

CONF

78%

MLB6:40 PM

Mariners @ Marlins

We've got a cross-coast battle under the roof in Miami tonight as the Seattle Mariners look to even the series against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park. While the market is giving plenty of respect to Miami's home form and Tyler Phillips' surface-level numbers, the sharp money is looking directly at the starting pitching mismatch on the mound. Seattle sends George Kirby to the bump, a reliable workhorse who excels away from home with a 3.16 road ERA and a stellar 3.13 night ERA. On the other side, Phillips is a walking regression candidate. His respectable 3.52 ERA is completely masked by a bloated 4.81 expected ERA (xERA) and an opponent xwOBA of .337. To make matters worse for the Marlins, Phillips has struggled mightily under the lights, carrying a 5.06 night-game ERA. The structural mismatch in this game lies in how the Seattle lineup matches up against Phillips' massive platoon vulnerability. Phillips has been hit hard by left-handed batters all season, allowing an .812 OPS to lefties compared to a minuscule .608 OPS to righties. Seattle is countering this by loading their lineup with seven left-handed bats, including J.P. Crawford, Dominic Canzone, Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, Luke Raley, Cole Young, and Colt Emerson. Luke Raley and Victor Robles have both historically feasted on Phillips, each boasting a 2-for-2 line with a home run in past head-to-head matchups. While Seattle is currently playing without stars Julio Rodríguez and Brendan Donovan, this extreme left-handed deployment is perfectly engineered to knock Phillips out of the game early. Once this game hands over to the bullpens, the advantage tilts heavily back to the Pacific Northwest. Seattle's high-leverage bridge of Gabe Speier, who carries a 1.96 ERA, and JM Ferrer, sporting a 2.37 ERA, are fully rested and ready to hand a lead to closer Andrés Muñoz. Miami’s late-inning situation is highly volatile with closer Pete Fairbanks struggling with a 7.00 ERA and setup man Calvin Faucher likely sidelined after throwing 36 pitches yesterday. With Anthony Bender also on the Injured List, the Marlins simply lack the high-leverage arms to hold off Seattle's late-inning push. Lay the reasonable price on the road favorite.

Seattle Mariners ML-130

CONF

78%

MLB6:45 PM

Astros @ Nationals

Under the partly cloudy skies of Nationals Park, the heat of an 81-degree evening sets the stage for a high-stakes rubber match as the Houston Astros look to out-maneuver the Washington Nationals in the nation's capital. While the betting public will scramble to back the home favorite because of Foster Griffin’s brilliant surface numbers, the smart money is sitting right here on Houston at a very attractive plus-money price. The centerpiece of this bet is the dramatic matchup advantage created by Houston’s offensive game plan. Griffin enters tonight with a stellar 2.87 ERA, but his underlying 4.02 xERA indicates that regression is looming. More importantly, Griffin has a distinct platoon split: lefties hit just .153 against him with a .520 OPS, but right-handed hitters find much more success, batting .234 with a .693 OPS and hitting 13 home runs against him in 274 at-bats. Houston has neutralized Griffin’s primary weapon by stacking eight right-handed bats in their starting lineup tonight, placing immense pressure on the left-hander and exposing his tendency to surrender the long ball to righties. On the other side, Spencer Arrighetti possesses the ultimate weapon to stifle Washington's top threat. Arrighetti features a curveball with a 35.1% whiff rate that matches up perfectly against Nationals rookie James Wood, who has struggled mightily against the pitch, batting a meager .071 in 32 plate appearances. Additionally, the fundamental edge belongs to Houston; the Astros have committed only 41 errors with a .987 fielding percentage, whereas Washington’s defense has been sloppy, tallying 72 errors and a .979 fielding percentage. With Griffin’s ground-ball profile, his defense will be heavily tested by the balls he coaxes, creating a high-risk environment for the home team. Back the Astros to exploit these tactical cracks and secure the road win.

Astros ML+116

CONF

78%

MLB7:00 PM

Phillies @ Reds

The stage is set under the warm Cincinnati sky at Great American Ball Park as our Reds send their dynamic young ace, Chase Burns, to the mound in a pivotal clash against the visiting Philadelphia Phillies. As a lifelong Reds fan who grew up watching this team and dreaming of moments like this, I have absolute belief in what this organization is building—and tonight, that optimism is backed by serious cold, hard data. We are rolling out our absolute superstar, Chase Burns, who has been nothing short of spectacular with a 10-1 record, a 2.40 ERA, and 116 strikeouts in 97.2 innings. At home in Cincinnati, Burns has been nearly untouchable, pitching to a stellar 1.99 ERA. His primary weapon is an elite slider that boasts a ridiculous 54.9% whiff rate and a tiny .200 expected wOBA. While the Phillies possess dangerous left-handed bats like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, Burns has the raw, elite stuff to neutralize threat after threat when the lights shine brightest. The real tactical edge tonight lies in the pitching matchup disparity. The Phillies are forced to run out a bullpen game starting with Alan Rangel, who has pitched just 16.0 innings this year to a 1.31 WHIP. Rangel has shown a massive vulnerability against left-handed hitters, allowing a .289 average and an .831 OPS. That plays perfectly into the hands of our most dangerous weapons at the top of the order, where switch-hitting and left-handed threats like Elly De La Cruz, JJ Bleday, and TJ Friedl can jump on his 93 mph fastball early. Once Rangel is chased, the Phillies will have to rely on a heavily taxed relief corps to piece together the remaining innings in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league. The public might look at the teams' recent trends and worry about our Reds coming off a tough 3-7 stretch, but that is exactly why we get value on the moneyline at -142. Philadelphia has their own pitching struggles, having allowed 5.5 runs per game over their last ten outings. With a Cy Young candidate on our mound and the Phillies forced to piece together nine innings in a tough road environment, this is the ultimate spot for the Reds to flex their muscles and show the baseball world what this organization's future is all about. Trust the ace, trust the home-field advantage, and back Cincinnati on the moneyline.

Reds ML-142

CONF

78%

MLB7:10 PM

Royals @ Mets

A humid July evening in Queens sets the stage at Citi Field as the New York Mets look to bounce back from yesterday's wild slugfest against the visiting Kansas City Royals. This matchup has all the makings of another high-scoring, volatile environment, with clear skies and an 11 mph wind blowing straight out to left field. At first glance, paying -196 on the Mets feels steep for two teams sitting at identical 38-54 records, but digging into the pitching profiles reveals a massive tactical advantage for New York. The Royals are turning to Steven Cruz as an opener, and while his 4.02 xERA suggests he is better than his 5.08 surface ERA, his extreme platoon liabilities are a recipe for disaster against a lefty-heavy Mets lineup that features Juan Soto, Carson Benge, and the newly reinstated Jorge Polanco. Cruz relies heavily on his 98.1 mph four-seam fastball, which he throws 58% of the time, but he has been absolutely crushed by left-handed hitters to the tune of a .905 OPS and seven home runs in just 67 at-bats. That is a fatal flaw tonight. Soto and Benge are both lethal against fastballs, holding a spectacular .486 xwOBA against four-seamers, and Soto has been a force at Citi Field with a 1.123 home OPS. If Cruz gets knocked out early, Kansas City's fatigued bullpen will be forced to cover seven or eight innings. Primary setup men Daniel Lynch IV (2.41 ERA) and John Schreiber (3.53 ERA) both worked heavily in yesterday's 16-12 marathon, leaving the Royals' middle relief incredibly vulnerable to a Mets offense that is averaging a .410 xwOBA over its last three games. While Mets starter Christian Scott is a regression candidate sporting a 3.49 ERA against a 4.78 xERA, his ability to eat four to five innings provides much-needed stability compared to the Royals' chaotic bullpen game. Scott will need to navigate Bobby Witt Jr., who hits sweepers hard with a .347 batting average, but once Scott hands the ball over, the Mets' bullpen is primed to close the door. High-leverage weapons Luke Weaver (1.89 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) and closer Devin Williams did not pitch yesterday and are completely rested. My read is that the Mets' offense jumps on Cruz's platoon weakness early, exploits a depleted Royals bullpen in the middle innings, and lets their rested high-leverage arms secure the win. Lay the juice on the home team.

Mets ML-196

CONF

72%

MLB7:40 PM

Red Sox @ White Sox

A midsummer AL clash heats up under the Chicago lights tonight as the division-leading White Sox host the surging Red Sox at Rate Field. With the temperature sitting at 88 degrees and an 8 mph wind blowing in from right field, this matchup offers a fascinating battle between two teams trending in opposite directions. The Red Sox come into this contest as one of the hottest teams in the majors, riding an 8-2 run over their last 10 games, which includes a dominant 8-1 victory in yesterday’s series opener. Their recent play has made a mockery of their sub-.500 record of 41-48, supported by a healthy +32 season run differential. Tonight, Boston hands the ball to rookie left-hander Jake Bennett, who has been absolutely outstanding through seven starts. Bennett carries a 3.10 ERA, but his underlying 2.83 xERA reveals a pitcher who is even better than his basic numbers suggest. Armed with an elite changeup that has limited opponents to a microscopic .137 xwOBA, Bennett has allowed just three earned runs over his last 20 innings. He matches up beautifully against a White Sox lineup that is still reeling from the fresh loss of their premier slugger Munetaka Murakami, who was placed on the 10-day injured list on July 5 with a hamstring injury. In their first full game without Murakami’s 20 home runs, Chicago managed just one run in Tuesday's opener. The White Sox, meanwhile, counter with right-hander Davis Martin, whose 9-3 record and 3.08 ERA look pristine on the surface but hide some serious warning signs. Martin's 4.11 xERA represents a massive 1.03-run gap compared to his actual ERA, indicating severe regression is on the horizon. He has been highly susceptible to hard contact, allowing a 44.8% Hard-Hit rate, and is heavily reliant on his sinker to get through games. That is a dangerous recipe against a Red Sox lineup that features Willson Contreras and Connor Wong, both of whom absolutely crush sinkers with Contreras sporting a .926 OPS and Wong hitting .294. While Martin has been elite at home with a 0.88 ERA, his underlying profile is built on sand, and a hot Boston offense is precisely the kind of unit to exploit it. The late-inning advantage also swings heavily toward the visitors. Boston features a completely fresh and locked-in Aroldis Chapman, who has 18 saves and a 2.36 ERA, alongside a steady setup weapon in Garrett Whitlock with a 2.40 ERA. Chicago’s bullpen, by contrast, is in a state of transition after demoting Seranthony Dominguez due to his 4.70 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. At a near-even moneyline price of -104, the value lies entirely with the hotter team, the superior starting pitcher, and the stronger bullpen. Take the Red Sox on the moneyline to keep rolling.

Red Sox ML-104

CONF

78%

MLB7:40 PM

Guardians @ Twins

A high-stakes AL Central battle takes center stage tonight under the clouds at Target Field as the sliding Cleveland Guardians look to snap a three-game skid against the surging Minnesota Twins. In a division where every game feels like October, tonight’s matchup offers a textbook opportunity to grab plus-money value on an underdog with a massive late-game advantage. The headline story tonight is a massive defensive gamble forced by a brand-new injury. With Byron Buxton officially landing on the injured list today due to a hip strain, the Twins are starting infielder Luke Keaschall in center field for the first time in his career. Keaschall has already struggled defensively this season at his natural second base position, posting a concerning -8 OAA and -6 DRS. Asking him to patrol center field behind a fly-ball pitcher like Connor Prielipp, who carries a low 0.86 GO/AO ratio, is a recipe for disaster. Cleveland's offense, though missing its anchor, can exploit this defensive weakness. Chase DeLauter, who bats .360 against left-handed pitching, is perfectly positioned to punish Prielipp's primary mix and test Minnesota's improvised outfield defense. While Prielipp's 4.08 xERA suggests he has been unlucky compared to his 4.96 actual ERA, he faces a Cleveland pitching staff that holds a massive operational edge. Cleveland starter Slade Cecconi brings a stable 4.44 ERA and will benefit from elite defensive support behind the plate, with catcher Austin Hedges providing a massive framing advantage at 6.3 Catcher DEF compared to Victor Caratini's 1.0. More importantly, if this game remains tight into the later frames, the bullpen disparity is staggering. The Twins own an MLB-worst 5.28 bullpen ERA and lack reliable depth behind their primary high-leverage arms. Cleveland, on the other hand, boasts a robust relief corps and a completely fresh closer in Cade Smith, who has racked up 26 saves with a 2.90 ERA and hasn't pitched since Sunday. At +102, the market is overreacting to Cleveland's recent skid, making the Guardians the sharp side to stop the bleeding tonight.

Guardians ML+102

CONF

72%

MLB7:45 PM

Brewers @ Cardinals

The tension is thick at a warm Busch Stadium tonight as the Milwaukee Brewers look to complete a series sweep against a St. Louis Cardinals squad searching for answers after dropping four straight. Milwaukee has taken the first three matchups of this series, outscoring their division rivals 18-8, and they have a prime opportunity to keep rolling tonight. The starting pitching matchup features a glaring discrepancy in underlying quality. Cardinals starter Michael McGreevy has managed a respectable 3.12 ERA, but his underlying metrics paint a much more alarming picture, showing a massive 5.60 xERA and a .360 expected wOBA allowed. He is facing a highly disciplined Milwaukee lineup that features a 23.1% chase rate, which will force him to challenge hitters inside the zone where left-handed bats like Christian Yelich and Garrett Mitchell can exploit his platoon struggles, as McGreevy has surrendered a .703 OPS and nine home runs to lefties this season. On the other side of the mound, Milwaukee sends left-hander Kyle Harrison to the hill. Harrison brings a solid 8-1 record, a 2.82 ERA, and a much more sustainable 3.03 xERA into this contest. While Harrison has shown some vulnerability on the road with a 4.68 road ERA, his elite swing-and-miss stuff—including a slurve with a 47.5% chase rate—should play exceptionally well against a St. Louis offense that has chased at a 36.6% clip over their last three games. The Cardinals’ lineup does feature right-handed power like Jordan Walker and Nelson Velazquez, who boast stellar numbers against southpaws, but Harrison’s 11.2 K/9 capability gives him the tools to work out of high-leverage situations. The ultimate decider in the late innings tonight is the massive disparity in bullpen depth and health. St. Louis is operating with an incredibly fatigued relief unit after yesterday's doubleheader, and they are missing key leverage arms with Ryne Stanek and Justin Bruihl sidelined by fresh injuries. St. Louis has been forced to select Triple-A arm Luis Gastelum and sign independent league depth to patch the holes, which is a dangerous recipe against a potent Brewers team. Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s closer Trevor Megill is fully rested and carries a 0.97 WHIP on the season. Expect Milwaukee's offense to knock McGreevy out early, force St. Louis into their depleted bullpen, and allow the visitors to secure another victory.

Brewers ML-152

CONF

75%

MLB8:05 PM

Angels @ Rangers

A crucial American League West battle unfolds tonight at a climate-controlled Globe Life Field as the surging Texas Rangers look to keep their division title chase alive against a desperate Los Angeles Angels squad. While the headlines will rightly focus on the anticipated return of Mike Trout to the Halos' lineup, the real story of this game lies on the mound, where Texas starter MacKenzie Gore is primed to exploit a massive tactical mismatch. Gore has been an absolute force at home this season with a stellar 2.49 ERA, and tonight he faces an Angels lineup featuring eight right-handed hitters. This plays directly into his primary strength, as Gore has dominated righties all year, holding them to a microscopic .211 batting average and .639 OPS. On the other side, the Angels send Walbert Ureña to the hill. Although Ureña boasts a solid 3.03 ERA, his pitching style relies heavily on putting the ball on the ground, evidenced by his 1.37 GO/AO ratio. This ground-ball approach is a recipe for disaster behind an Angels defense that has committed an MLB-high 58 errors this season. By contrast, the Rangers' defense is much tighter, having committed only 42 errors, and features clean infield play to support Gore's fly-ball tendencies. Even with Josh Jung scratched and Corey Seager on the injured list, the Rangers' lineup remains highly disciplined and has veteran bats like Joc Pederson ready to punish high velocity. The bullpen discrepancy also heavily favors Texas. If the game is tight late, the Rangers can call upon their rested, dominant closer Jacob Latz, who has locked down 18 saves with an elite 1.71 ERA and 0.62 WHIP. The Angels' relief core has been in complete disarray, contributing heavily to their current eight-game slide. Texas is playing with urgent purpose as they sit just a half-game out of first place in the division, while the Angels appear to be in a total tailspin. Lay the price with the Rangers on the moneyline to take care of business at home.

Rangers ML-152

CONF

85%

MLB10:00 PM

Diamondbacks @ Padres

Tonight at Petco Park, division rivals clash under the Southern California sky as the San Diego Padres look to build momentum against the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks. Both teams enter this contest with identical 45-46 records, but the mismatch on the mound tonight suggests a clear path for the home side. Michael King takes the bump for San Diego, bringing his strong 3.52 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 102.1 innings. King has been electric under the lights this season, posting an impressive 2.44 ERA in night games, which pairs perfectly with his comfortable 3.28 home ERA at Petco Park. His ability to limit hard contact—evidenced by a 34.4% hard-hit rate allowed—will keep the Diamondbacks' bats at bay in this pitcher-friendly park. If the Padres can hand a lead to their bullpen, they have the ultimate safety net in closer Mason Miller, who has been lights-out with a 0.96 ERA and 23-for-23 in save opportunities. On the other side, Arizona is sending rookie Jose Cabrera to the mound, and the underlying metrics point to a massive storm brewing. Cabrera holds a 4.72 ERA, but his 6.41 xERA suggests he has been incredibly lucky to avoid worse results. In limited action, Cabrera has struggled outside of day games and home conditions, pitching to a bloated 7.56 night ERA and a 7.20 road ERA. He leans heavily on a four-seam fastball that opponents have completely demolished to the tune of a .506 xwOBA. Even with Manny Machado out of the lineup tonight due to a fresh toe injury, the Padres' bats—led by Gavin Sheets and his 1.104 OPS with runners in scoring position—should have no trouble finding success against the rookie.

Padres ML-142

CONF

78%

MLB10:10 PM

Rockies @ Dodgers

Under the clear, warm skies of Chavez Ravine, the powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers look to bounce back against a division rival as they send Roki Sasaki to the hill to face Rockies rookie Gabriel Hughes, who is making his first career Major League start. This is a brutal spot for a young pitcher making his big league debut. Hughes relies heavily on his 93.6 mph four-seam fastball, throwing it 66% of the time, which plays directly into the strengths of the Dodgers' primary left-handed power hitters. Freddie Freeman (.349 AVG against four-seamers) and Max Muncy (.316 BA, .500 xwOBA against four-seamers) are primed to feast in these conditions. With the temperature reaching into the eighties at first pitch and an 8 mph wind blowing directly out to right field, Hughes is in for a very long night against a lineup loaded with elite left-handed bats like Ohtani, Tucker, Freeman, and Muncy. While Sasaki has been highly volatile recently, giving up 19 earned runs over his last 17 innings, his home splits (4.62 ERA) remain significantly better than his road numbers (6.25 ERA). More importantly, the Rockies' offense is severely compromised by the fresh injury to Hunter Goodman. Goodman, who leads Colorado with 27 home runs, is out of the lineup for the second straight game with a left hand/wrist contusion, leaving the Rockies with a massive power deficit and forcing Brett Sullivan (.220 AVG) into the starting catcher spot. If Sasaki gets into trouble early, the Dodgers have a fully rested, high-leverage bullpen ready to shut the door. Relievers Tanner Scott (2.70 ERA, 0.82 WHIP) and Alex Vesia (2.40 ERA) did not throw in yesterday's loss and are primed to lock down the late innings, whereas Colorado's relief staff is anchored by a struggling Jordan Romano (7.36 ERA) and Victor Vodnik (6.08 ERA). Rather than laying a steep -255 on the moneyline, the smart play is to attack the run line at -125. The Dodgers have a massive defensive advantage on the season, committing just 28 errors compared to Colorado's 57, and the return of Mookie Betts to shortstop stabilizes the infield after yesterday's defensive breakdown. The Rockies' bottom-five ranked outfield defense will have its hands full trying to track down fly balls in this warm, windy environment. Given the combination of the Dodgers' offensive matchup against a fastball-heavy rookie, their rest advantage in the bullpen, and Colorado's lack of power without Goodman, Los Angeles is in a prime position to break this game open. Trust the Dodgers to bounce back and cover the run line.

Dodgers -1.5-125

CONF

82%

Player props

MLB · Blue Jays @ Giants

Rafael Devers

Dylan Cease is the definition of 'effectively wild' right now. He’s piling up strikeouts (13.7 K/9), but his command is frequently MIA, evidenced by his 15 walks over his last five starts.

OVER 0.5 Walks-107

· Dylan Cease has walked 15 batters in his last 28.1 innings (4.76 BB/9)
· Rafael Devers has 5 walks in his last 10 games (0.5 BB/G)
· Cease issued 4+ walks in 3 of his last 5 starts

MLB HR · Angels @ Rangers

Zach Neto

Zach Neto represents the strongest statistical case for a home run tonight due to his pronounced platoon splits. This season, Neto has been significantly more dangerous against left-handed pitching, posting an .890 OPS and 5 home runs in limited opportunities compared to a .741 OPS against righties.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+360

· Zach Neto .890 OPS vs LHP (MacKenzie Gore)
· MacKenzie Gore 0.76 GO/AO (Fly-ball tendency)
· MacKenzie Gore 44.1% Hard-hit% allowed

MLB HR · Angels @ Rangers

Mike Trout

Betting on Mike Trout to hit a home run is a wager on elite baseline talent, especially at +360 odds. Before his recent absence, Trout was homering at a rate of once every 15.6 at-bats, the most prolific pace in the Angels' lineup.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+360

· Mike Trout 17 HR in 265 AB (1 HR per 15.6 AB)
· MacKenzie Gore 0.76 GO/AO (Fly-ball tendency)
· MacKenzie Gore 44.1% Hard-hit% allowed

MLB · Cubs @ Orioles

Adley Rutschman

Adley Rutschman has been a model of consistency lately, recording hits in each of his last five games and clearing this 1.5 total bases mark in three of those five (including a 4 TB performance). Tonight, he benefits from a premier matchup against Colin Rea.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+118

· Cleared 1.5 TB in 3 of last 5 games (2, 1, 4, 2, 1)
· Colin Rea vs LHB: .310 AVG / .835 OPS allowed
· Colin Rea season WHIP: 1.43

MLB · Cubs @ Orioles

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong is the engine of the Cubs' offense right now, batting .324 over his last 10 games and leading off for a team that is averaging 5.1 runs per game. PCA has cleared this 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs line in three of his last five games, including a massive 7-unit explosion in his most recent outing.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-144

· Last 10 games: .324 AVG with 11 hits and 2 HR
· Dean Kremer: 5 HR allowed in just 17.0 IP this season
· Cleared 1.5 HRR in 3 of last 5 games (3, 3, 1, 1, 7)

MLB · Athletics @ Tigers

Spencer Torkelson

Spencer Torkelson is positioned to exploit the most significant mismatch in this game: Jeffrey Springs' vulnerability to right-handed power. Springs has been dismantled by right-handers this season, surrendering 18 of his 24 home runs to them and allowing a massive .874 OPS.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+123

· Springs vs RHB: .874 OPS, 18 HR allowed (256 AB)
· Springs: 0.68 GO/AO (Extreme fly-ball lean)
· Break-even: +123 (needs >44.8% win probability)

MLB · Braves @ Pirates

Michael Harris II

Michael Harris II enters this matchup against Jared Jones with a definitive tactical advantage. Jones has struggled significantly against left-handed hitters this season, surrendering a .299 batting average and a gaudy .932 OPS to that side of the plate.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-105

· Jones vs LHB: .299 AVG / .932 OPS allowed
· Harris II Total Bases L5: [3, 4, 2, 6, 5] (per context)
· Line Odds: -105 (break-even: 51.2%)

MLB · Braves @ Pirates

Ryan O'Hearn

The matchup between Ryan O'Hearn and Grant Holmes is a statistical collision course. Holmes' 3.83 ERA is propped up by luck; his 4.62 xERA and 43.7% hard-hit rate allowed indicate he is giving up consistent loud contact.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+135

· Holmes vs LHB: 9 HR allowed in 180 ABs (1 every 20 ABs)
· O'Hearn Recent: 5 HR in last 10 games
· Line Odds: +135 (break-even: 42.6%)

MLB · Mariners @ Marlins

Luke Raley

Tyler Phillips is a primary regression candidate tonight. While his surface ERA is 3.52, his 4.81 xERA and 5.06 ERA in night games suggest he is vulnerable.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+131

· Tyler Phillips xERA: 4.81 (actual ERA 3.52)
· Tyler Phillips vs LHB: .812 OPS allowed
· Luke Raley vs RHP: 14 HR, .787 OPS

MLB · Mariners @ Marlins

Otto Lopez

Otto Lopez is currently one of the hottest hitters in baseball, maintaining a .343 season average and delivering three 3-hit games in his last five starts. While George Kirby is a respected starter, he has a notable split this season, allowing a .293 average to right-handed hitters compared to .266 against lefties.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+111

· George Kirby vs RHB: .293 AVG allowed
· Otto Lopez season AVG: .343
· Otto Lopez home AVG: .350

MLB · Astros @ Nationals

James Wood

The Gary Special tonight is a correlation play on James Wood’s elite plate discipline and the command struggles of Spencer Arrighetti. Arrighetti has been erratic recently, surrendering 11 walks in his last three starts, including a five-walk outing against Minnesota.

OVER 0.5 Walks-194

· Wood has drawn 13 walks in his last 10 games (including five multi-walk games)
· Spencer Arrighetti has allowed 11 walks over his last 21.0 innings pitched
· Line requires >66.0% break-even probability at -194 odds

MLB · Astros @ Nationals

Christian Walker

While Foster Griffin has been statistically dominant lately, his season-long splits reveal a clear vulnerability to right-handed power. He has surrendered 13 home runs and a .234 batting average to righties compared to just four home runs and a .153 average against lefties.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+130

· Foster Griffin has surrendered 13 of his 17 home runs to right-handed batters this season
· Christian Walker L10 games: 11-for-35 (.314 AVG) with 2 HR and 6 RBI
· Line requires >43.5% break-even probability at +130 odds

MLB · Phillies @ Reds

Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper batting leadoff in Great American Ball Park is a textbook environment for an over on total bases. The matchup against Chase Burns is particularly intriguing; while Burns is a high-strikeout ace (116 K in 97.2 IP), the data shows he is specifically vulnerable to left-handed power.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+130

· Needs >43.5% probability to break even
· Chase Burns has surrendered 10 of 12 HRs to left-handed hitters this season
· Harper is batting leadoff tonight, increasing expected Plate Appearance volume

MLB · Phillies @ Reds

Elly De La Cruz

Elly De La Cruz is the primary engine of the Cincinnati offense and faces a favorable environment tonight as the Phillies deploy a 'bullpen game.' The expected bulk reliever, Alan Rangel, possesses a stark platoon disadvantage against left-handed and switch-hitters, allowing a .831 OPS. De La Cruz, batting leadoff, is positioned to exploit this across multiple at-bats.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-140

· Needs >58.3% probability to break even
· Phillies bulk reliever Alan Rangel allows a .831 OPS to left-handed/switch hitters
· De La Cruz has reached base in 8 of his last 10 games

MLB · Royals @ Mets

Juan Soto

Juan Soto finds himself in an elite matchup tonight against Steven Cruz, a right-hander whose statistical profile is defined by an inability to retire left-handed hitters without damage. Cruz has surrendered seven home runs in only 67 at-bats to lefties this season, contributing to a massive .905 OPS allowed in the split.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-103

· Steven Cruz allows .905 OPS and 7 HR in 67 AB to LHB this season
· Juan Soto carries a 1.059 OPS and 16 HR against RHP in 2026
· Soto total_bases 1.5 Over (-103) needs >51% probability

MLB · Royals @ Mets

Tyler Tolbert

Tyler Tolbert is currently in the midst of a historic hot streak, having tied an MLB record with hits in 12 consecutive plate appearances. Over his last two games, he is a staggering 10-for-11 with two home runs, showing zero signs of cooling off.

OVER 0.5 Total Bases-125

· Tolbert has reached base via a hit in 12 consecutive plate appearances
· Christian Scott allows a .258 AVG to right-handed hitters compared to .205 against lefties
· Tolbert total_bases 0.5 Over (-125) needs >56% probability

MLB · Red Sox @ White Sox

Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras is currently the most locked-in hitter in the Red Sox lineup, having recorded a hit in nine of his last ten games and multiple bases in five straight. He is consistently driving the ball for extra bases, as evidenced by his 20th home run of the season on this current road trip.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+120

· Batting .371 (13-for-35) with 4 HR and 15 RBI over last 10 games
· Has cleared 1.5 total bases in 5 consecutive games (L5 TB: 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)
· Davis Martin allows a 44.8% hard-hit rate and holds a 4.11 xERA (1.03 higher than actual)

MLB · Guardians @ Twins

Chase DeLauter

DeLauter has been a contact machine for the Guardians, entering this game with a blistering .375 average (15-for-40) over his last 10 contests. While he faces a left-handed starter in Connor Prielipp, the traditional platoon disadvantage is negated by Prielipp's specific struggles this season; despite being a southpaw, Prielipp is surrendering a .317 average and a .808 OPS to left-handed hitters.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+112

· .375 AVG (15-for-40) over last 10 games
· Connor Prielipp allows .317 AVG to left-handed hitters
· Prielipp 0.86 GO/AO (fly-ball tendency)

MLB · Guardians @ Twins

Kody Clemens

Clemens is arguably the hottest hitter in the Twins' lineup right now, having launched 5 home runs with 14 RBIs over his last 10 games while maintaining a .293 average. The Twins have recognized this surge by moving him up to the #3 spot in the batting order, ensuring he gets maximum plate appearances tonight.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+120

· 5 HR and 14 RBI in last 10 games
· .293 AVG over last 10 games
· 7 mph wind blowing out to RF at Target Field

MLB · Brewers @ Cardinals

Jordan Walker

Jordan Walker is the premier lefty-specialist in the Cardinals' lineup, and tonight's matchup against Kyle Harrison is a statistical dream for him. Walker carries a massive .979 OPS against southpaws this season and is in peak form, having slashed .313 with 3 home runs over his last 10 games.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+125

· Jordan Walker: .979 OPS vs LHP this season
· Kyle Harrison: 4.68 road ERA vs 1.53 home ERA
· Jordan Walker: .313 AVG, 3 HR in last 10 games

MLB · Brewers @ Cardinals

Jake Bauers

This pick is a direct attack on Michael McGreevy's unsustainable statistical profile. McGreevy’s 3.12 ERA is masked by a glaring 5.60 xERA and a high 40.3% Hard-Hit rate allowed, indicating he is due for significant regression. He is a contact-oriented pitcher (5.7 K/9) who struggles particularly against left-handed bats, allowing a .703 OPS to that side.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+130

· Michael McGreevy: 5.60 xERA vs 3.12 actual ERA
· Jake Bauers: 13 HR and .887 OPS vs RHP this season
· Michael McGreevy: .703 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters

MLB · Yankees @ Rays

Yandy Diaz

Yandy Diaz is a statistical outlier at Tropicana Field, posting a massive .371 batting average in home games this season. Tonight he draws a matchup against Gerrit Cole that is much more favorable than the name value suggests; in 2026, Cole has struggled significantly to put away right-handed hitters, allowing them to bat .296 against him. Diaz sits at the top of the Rays lineup, ensuring he receives the maximum volume of plate appearances to find his two bases. Given his .323 average against righties this year, he does not need a home run to clear this line—two singles or a well-placed double at the Trop gets us there. While Cole's 3.34 xERA indicates he is pitching better than his surface stats, his specific vulnerability to right-handed contact hitters makes Diaz the primary beneficiary tonight.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+120

· Yandy Diaz .371 Home AVG / .323 vs RHP in 2026
· Gerrit Cole .296 AVG allowed to RHB in 2026 (1 HR in 54 AB)
· Price (+120) requires >45.4% win probability

MLB HR · Cubs @ Orioles

Samuel Basallo

Samuel Basallo is in a premier 'buy' spot tonight against Colin Rea. Rea has been a significantly worse pitcher away from Chicago this season, posting a 6.60 road ERA compared to a 2.72 mark at home.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+390

· Colin Rea vs LHB: .310 AVG / .835 OPS allowed
· Rea Away ERA: 6.60 in 2026
· Samuel Basallo: 2 HR in last 5 games (HR L5: [0, 0, 1, 1, 0])

MLB HR · Phillies @ Reds

Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber is the most prolific home run hitter in this matchup, entering with 31 homers and a blistering rate of one long ball every 10.6 at-bats. Tonight he faces Chase Burns, who despite an elite ERA, is a fly-ball pitcher (0.70 GO/AO) who has struggled with home run suppression against left-handed hitters.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+245

· 31 Season HR (1 HR every 10.6 AB)
· Chase Burns: 10 HR allowed to LHB / 0.70 GO/AO (Fly-ball)
· 87°F game-time temperature

MLB HR · Royals @ Mets

Juan Soto

Juan Soto is in an elite smash spot tonight at Citi Field. He faces Steven Cruz, a right-handed pitcher whose statistical profile against left-handed hitters is catastrophic.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+310

· Steven Cruz vs LHB: .905 OPS and 7 HR allowed in 67 AB (1 HR every 9.6 AB)
· Juan Soto: 20 HR on season with 3 HR in his last 5 games
· Break-even probability: 24.4% (+310 odds)

MLB HR · Cubs @ Orioles

Ian Happ

While Dean Kremer has been pitching well overall, he has shown a specific vulnerability to giving up the long ball to left-handed hitters, surrendering 4 home runs in just 50 at-bats to the split this season. Ian Happ, a switch-hitter who will bat from the left side tonight, has the power profile to exploit this. Happ has already taken Kremer deep once in their limited head-to-head history, and his 17 home runs lead the Cubs' middle order. With the wind blowing out toward the left-field corner at 6 mph, Happ is one swing away from clearing this +400 price, which significantly undervalues his power matchup against a pitcher with a 11.9% barrel rate allowed.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+400

· Dean Kremer vs LHB: 4 HR allowed in only 50 at-bats (8% HR rate)
· Ian Happ: 17 HR on the season (70 hits total)
· Happ career vs Kremer: 1-for-3 with 1 HR

MLB HR · Phillies @ Reds

Elly De La Cruz

Elly De La Cruz has a clear path to production tonight against Phillies starter/opener Alan Rangel. Rangel has been vulnerable to left-handed hitters, allowing a .289 batting average and a high .831 OPS to the left side.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+370

· Alan Rangel: .831 OPS allowed to LHB
· 13 Season HR / 76 Hits in 282 AB
· Great American Ball Park: 1.1 Park Factor

MLB HR · Red Sox @ White Sox

Miguel Vargas

Miguel Vargas is the prototypical 'lefty-killer' for the White Sox, posting an elite 1.044 OPS and hitting a home run every 11.4 at-bats against southpaws this season. He faces Jake Bennett, a left-hander whose 3.10 ERA masks a susceptibility to right-handed power; all three home runs Bennett has surrendered in his 40.2 innings of work have come against right-handed bats. Batting leadoff, Vargas is guaranteed maximum plate appearances in a game with a high temperature (88F) and wind blowing out toward the power alleys. His recent form includes two multi-hit games in his last four starts, and his track record against lefties makes this +330 price point a significant value given the atmospheric conditions in Chicago.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+330

· Season: 20 HR in 323 AB (6.2% HR rate)
· Split: .297 AVG and 8 HR in 91 AB (8.8% HR rate) vs Left-handed pitching
· Matchup: Jake Bennett has allowed 3 HR this season, all 3 to right-handed hitters

MLB HR · Royals @ Mets

Bobby Witt Jr.

Bobby Witt Jr. is the clear engine of the Royals' offense and possesses the raw power to exploit a pitcher whose surface-level stats mask underlying volatility. Mets starter Christian Scott carries a 3.49 ERA, but his expected ERA (xERA) of 4.78 is a flashing red light for regression.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+390

· Christian Scott: 4.78 xERA vs 3.49 actual ERA suggests significant regression is due
· Bobby Witt Jr.: 12 HR on season with a recent multi-HR game (2 HR on July 2)
· Break-even probability: 20.4% (+390 odds)

MLB HR · Red Sox @ White Sox

Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras is currently the hottest hitter in the Boston lineup, having launched four home runs in his last 10 games. He faces White Sox starter Davis Martin, who is a primary candidate for regression; Martin's 3.08 ERA is significantly outperformed by his 4.11 expected ERA (xERA), suggesting he has been dodging damage that his contact quality allowed should have produced.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+370

· Recent Form: 4 HR and 15 RBI in last 10 games (.371 AVG)
· Matchup: Davis Martin's 4.11 xERA is over a full run higher than his 3.08 actual ERA
· Power Profile: 14 of his 20 home runs this season have come against right-handed pitchers

MLB · Diamondbacks @ Padres

Ketel Marte

We are riding the hottest hand in the National League. Ketel Marte enters tonight on a four-game home run streak, and his total base counts in those games (4, 4, 4, 5) make a 1.5 line look very attractive at plus money.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+118

· Ketel Marte: 4-game home run streak (clearing 1.5 TB in all four)
· Marte L10: .316 AVG with 12 hits in 38 ABs
· Michael King: 4.56 xERA vs 3.52 actual ERA (regression target)

MLB · Rockies @ Dodgers

Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani is in a premium spot to find extra bases tonight against Gabriel Hughes, a rookie right-hander making his first career MLB start. Hughes is a heavy fastball reliant pitcher (66.0% usage) whose average velocity of 93.6 mph is a speed Ohtani typically exploits for extra-base power.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-136

· Shohei Ohtani .293 AVG and 3 HR over last 10 games
· Opposing SP Gabriel Hughes (Debut) 66.0% Fastball usage at 93.6 mph
· 8 mph wind blowing directly Out To RF (Ohtani power alley)

MLB · Rockies @ Dodgers

Cole Carrigg

Cole Carrigg is currently the most productive bat in the Rockies' lineup, entering this matchup on a blistering run where he has hit .424 (14-for-33) over his last 10 games. His ability to impact the Hits + Runs + RBIs market is driven by his high-volume production; he has cleared this 1.5 HRR line in four of his last five starts, averaging 5.2 combined stats per game in that stretch.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI+100

· Cole Carrigg .424 AVG over last 10 games (14-for-33)
· Carrigg has cleared 1.5 HRR in 4 of last 5 games
· Opposing SP Roki Sasaki 5.40 ERA and 12.9% Barrel% allowed

Hub research

177

bullpen_fatigueKC @ NYM
New York Mets pen: 16.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
New York Mets's bullpen has thrown 16.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 5 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
platoon_edgeNYY @ TB
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Paul Goldschmidt's vs. Left line (1.115 OPS, 95 AB) sits well above his .591 mark the other way (131 AB). Tonight's starter Shane McClanahan throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
starter_team_recordPHI @ CIN
Reds 7-1 in Chase Burns's last 8 starts
Reds are 7-1 in Chase Burns's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 5 in a row. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordHOU @ WSH
Nationals 7-1 in Foster Griffin's last 8 starts
Nationals are 7-1 in Foster Griffin's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 4 in a row. He starts tonight.
head_to_headMIL @ STL
Brewers are 7-1 vs Cardinals this season
Brewers lead the season series 7-1 over Cardinals. MIL won the last meeting 10-2.
heat_checkHOU @ WSH
Luis Garcia Jr.: 1.524 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 45 PA: a 1.524 OPS versus .874 for the season, 0.65 above his norm. He has 19 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 3-for-4, 6 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeTOR @ SF
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 2nd against Logan Webb (RHP)
Over 155 AB vs. Right, Nathan Lukes owns a .817 OPS versus .297 in 31 AB the other way. He sees RHP Logan Webb tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
starter_team_recordMIL @ STL
Cardinals 1-7 in Michael McGreevy's last 8 starts
Cardinals are 1-7 in Michael McGreevy's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 4 in a row. He starts tonight.
platoon_edgePHI @ CIN
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Bryce Harper's vs. Right line (1.034 OPS, 196 AB) sits well above his .653 mark the other way (127 AB). Tonight's starter Chase Burns throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
heat_checkCHC @ BAL
Dansby Swanson: 1.179 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 54 PA: a 1.179 OPS versus .719 for the season, 0.46 above his norm. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
gary_hr_threatsCubs @ Orioles
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong is in the midst of a breakout 19-home run campaign and draws a matchup against Dean Kremer, whose underlying metrics suggest extreme vulnerability to the long ball. Kremer has surrendered five home runs in just 17.0 innings this season, resulting in a staggering 2.65 HR/9 rate.
P 2 HR — 2-for-4, 8 TB, 1 BB
gary_hr_threatsPhillies @ Reds
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber is the most prolific home run hitter in this matchup, entering with 31 homers and a blistering rate of one long ball every 10.6 at-bats. Tonight he faces Chase Burns, who despite an elite ERA, is a fly-ball pitcher (0.70 GO/AO) who has struggled with home run suppression against left-handed hitters.
P 1 HR — 1-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeSEA @ MIA
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 1st against George Kirby (RHP)
Over 225 AB vs. Right, Liam Hicks owns a .908 OPS versus .554 in 56 AB the other way. He sees RHP George Kirby tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
gary_hr_threatsRoyals @ Mets
Juan Soto
Juan Soto is in an elite smash spot tonight at Citi Field. He faces Steven Cruz, a right-handed pitcher whose statistical profile against left-handed hitters is catastrophic.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
cooling_offOAK @ DET
Nick Kurtz: .442 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Troy Melton
Nick Kurtz's .442 OPS over the last 15 days (50 PA) trails his .915 season mark, down 0.473. Tonight he draws RHP Troy Melton — his stronger side: a .978 OPS vs RHP across 208 AB.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
cooling_offCLE @ MIN
Travis Bazzana: .365 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Connor Prielipp
Travis Bazzana's .365 OPS over the last 15 days (50 PA) trails his .738 season mark, down 0.373. Tonight he draws LHP Connor Prielipp — his weaker side: a .506 OPS vs LHP across 81 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
platoon_edgeCOL @ LAD
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Mickey Moniak's vs. Right line (1.004 OPS, 158 AB) sits well above his .635 mark the other way (37 AB). Tonight's starter Roki Sasaki throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
cooling_offARI @ SD
Corbin Carroll: .474 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael King
Corbin Carroll's .474 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .855 season mark, down 0.381. Tonight he draws RHP Michael King — his weaker side: a .764 OPS vs RHP across 221 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeBOS @ CHW
Randal Grichuk (bats R) gets a LHP from the 2nd spot
Randal Grichuk's vs. Left line (.974 OPS, 79 AB) sits well above his .600 mark the other way (48 AB). Tonight's starter Jake Bennett throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
gary_hr_threatsCubs @ Orioles
Samuel Basallo
The statistical anchor for this pick is Colin Rea's profound struggle against left-handed hitting. Rea has been tagged for a .310 batting average and five home runs in 203 at-bats against lefties this season.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
starter_team_recordCHC @ BAL
Cubs 2-6 in Colin Rea's last 8 starts
Cubs are 2-6 in Colin Rea's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
heat_checkNYY @ TB
Junior Caminero: 1.286 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.286 OPS spans the last 15 days (55 PA) against a .918 season baseline, a 0.368 swing. He has 26 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
starter_team_recordKC @ NYM
Mets 6-2 in Christian Scott's last 8 starts
Mets are 6-2 in Christian Scott's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
cooling_offTOR @ SF
Casey Schmitt: .464 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Dylan Cease
Casey Schmitt's .464 OPS over the last 15 days (53 PA) trails his .792 season mark, down 0.328. Tonight he draws RHP Dylan Cease — his weaker side: a .778 OPS vs RHP across 236 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
head_to_headATL @ PIT
Braves are 6-2 vs Pirates this season
Braves lead the season series 6-2 over Pirates. PIT took the last meeting 12-4 — a revenge spot.
starter_formHOU @ WSH
Spencer Arrighetti: 9.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 9.00 ERA over his last 15 innings with a 1.27 WHIP (1.23 season) — the 3.81 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 4 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
starter_team_recordMIL @ STL
Brewers 6-2 in Kyle Harrison's last 8 starts
Brewers are 6-2 in Kyle Harrison's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
bullpen_fatigueMIL @ STL
St. Louis Cardinals pen: 16.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
St. Louis Cardinals's bullpen has thrown 16.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
platoon_edgeOAK @ DET
Matt Vierling (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Matt Vierling's vs. Left line (.772 OPS, 83 AB) sits well above his .490 mark the other way (139 AB). Tonight's starter Jeffrey Springs throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
cooling_offNYY @ TB
Cody Bellinger: .328 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Shane McClanahan
Cody Bellinger's .328 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .762 season mark, down 0.434. Tonight he draws LHP Shane McClanahan — his stronger side: a .776 OPS vs LHP across 114 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
platoon_edgeCHC @ BAL
Samuel Basallo (bats L) draws Colin Rea (RHP), batting 5th
Samuel Basallo carries a .878 OPS vs. Right (191 AB) against .496 the other way (63 AB), and faces RHP Colin Rea from the 5th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
platoon_edgeBOS @ CHW
Miguel Vargas (bats R) draws Jake Bennett (LHP), batting 1st
Miguel Vargas carries a 1.044 OPS vs. Left (91 AB) against .774 the other way (232 AB), and faces LHP Jake Bennett from the 1st spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
gary_hr_threatsAstros @ Nationals
James Wood
James Wood is currently the hottest hitter in the Nationals lineup, having mashed three home runs over his last five games and recording 13 hits in his last 10. Tonight he faces Spencer Arrighetti, a right-hander who has struggled with power suppression against left-handed hitters.
P 0 HR — 0-for-2, 0 TB, 3 BB
platoon_edgeTOR @ SF
Rafael Devers (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Rafael Devers's vs. Right line (.906 OPS, 229 AB) sits well above his .560 mark the other way (120 AB). Tonight's starter Dylan Cease throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
rest_fatigueKC @ NYM
NYM's bullpen has covered 16.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 16.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Kodai Senga (3) and Huascar Brazoban (2.3). KC's pen has thrown 12.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 2-6
rest_fatigueMIL @ STL
16.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for STL
Relievers have absorbed 16.3 innings over the last 3 games (Bruce Zimmermann (5) and Justin Bruihl (3.3) the heaviest). MIL's pen has thrown 6.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 1-5
head_to_headCOL @ LAD
Dodgers are 7-4 vs Rockies this season
Dodgers lead the season series 7-4 over Rockies. COL took the last meeting 4-3 — a revenge spot.
streakALG @ ARG
Argentina won the 2022 World Cup
Defending champions from 2022 — 6 wins in their last 8 World Cup matches (W-W-W-W-W-W-L-L).
gary_hr_threatsGuardians @ Twins
Kody Clemens
Kody Clemens is in the midst of a historic power surge, having homered in three straight games and five of his last ten appearances. He has already established a career-high with 16 home runs this season, demonstrating a high home-run-to-at-bat ratio.
P 0 HR — 3-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offATL @ PIT
Drake Baldwin: .485 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jared Jones
Drake Baldwin's .485 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .788 season mark, down 0.303. Tonight he draws RHP Jared Jones — his weaker side: a .759 OPS vs RHP across 155 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
gary_hr_threatsRed Sox @ White Sox
Willson Contreras
Willson Contreras is currently the hottest hitter in the Red Sox lineup, slashing .371 over his last 10 games with four home runs. He enters tonight having recorded multiple total bases in four of his last five starts, showing elite contact quality.
P 0 HR — 0-for-2, 0 TB
cooling_offMIL @ STL
Alec Burleson: .501 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Kyle Harrison
Alec Burleson's .501 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .800 season mark, down 0.299. Tonight he draws LHP Kyle Harrison — his weaker side: a .436 OPS vs LHP across 105 AB.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB
heat_checkATL @ PIT
Ryan O'Hearn: 1.121 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.121 OPS spans the last 15 days (57 PA) against a .851 season baseline, a 0.27 swing. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
rest_fatigueBOS @ CHW
CHW's bullpen has covered 15.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 15.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Erick Fedde (5.3) and Brandon Eisert (3.7). BOS's pen has thrown 12.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 5-0
heat_checkTOR @ SF
Rafael Devers: 1.094 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 51 PA: a 1.094 OPS versus .787 for the season, 0.307 above his norm. He has 18 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offTOR @ SF
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: .428 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Logan Webb
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s .428 OPS over the last 15 days (51 PA) trails his .689 season mark, down 0.261. Tonight he draws RHP Logan Webb — his weaker side: a .667 OPS vs RHP across 254 AB.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
heat_checkCOL @ LAD
Kyle Karros: 1.171 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (40 PA) he is at a 1.171 OPS, up 0.388 on his .783 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB
heat_checkSEA @ MIA
Heriberto Hernandez: 1.201 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.201 OPS spans the last 15 days (36 PA) against a .789 season baseline, a 0.412 swing. He has 12 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
xg_regressionSWE @ NED
Netherlands are finishing above their chances
Netherlands are scoring 2.8/match on 1.3 xG — 1.5 goals/match above expected across 4 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
xg_regressionNED @ TUN
Netherlands are finishing above their chances
Netherlands are scoring 2.8/match on 1.3 xG — 1.5 goals/match above expected across 4 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
starter_formOAK @ DET
Jeffrey Springs: 9.42 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 9.42 ERA over his last 14.3 innings with a 1.74 WHIP (1.38 season) — the 5.79 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
xg_regressionMAR @ NED
Netherlands are finishing above their chances
Netherlands are scoring 2.8/match on 1.3 xG — 1.5 goals/match above expected across 4 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
xg_regressionJPN @ NED
Netherlands are finishing above their chances
Netherlands are scoring 2.8/match on 1.3 xG — 1.5 goals/match above expected across 4 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
tournamentTO LIFT THE CUP
France head the title market at +180
France are the market's outright World Cup favourite at +180. Spain (+370) and Argentina (+390) are the next shortest.
heat_checkMIL @ STL
Garrett Mitchell: 1.188 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (41 PA) he is at a 1.188 OPS, up 0.363 on his .825 season mark. He has 8 home runs on the season.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
heat_checkSEA @ MIA
Otto Lopez: 1.163 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (54 PA) he is at a 1.163 OPS, up 0.274 on his .889 season mark. He has 9 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
gary_hr_threatsRed Sox @ White Sox
Miguel Vargas
Miguel Vargas is the primary power source for the White Sox and possesses extreme platoon splits that favor him tonight against rookie southpaw Jake Bennett. Vargas has posted a massive 1.044 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, clubbing eight home runs in significantly fewer opportunities than he's had against righties.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
rest_fatigueARI @ SD
15 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
Relievers have absorbed 15 innings over the last 3 games (Griffin Canning (4) and Alek Jacob (3) the heaviest). ARI's pen has thrown 11 over the same span.
P flagged side won 4-10
cooling_offNYY @ TB
Paul Goldschmidt: .445 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Shane McClanahan
Paul Goldschmidt's .445 OPS over the last 15 days (42 PA) trails his .815 season mark, down 0.37. Tonight he draws LHP Shane McClanahan — his stronger side: a 1.115 OPS vs LHP across 95 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
xg_recapNOR @ BRA
Brazil out-created the field but didn't win
Brazil won the xG battle 2.8–0.8 yet lost to Norway (1–2). The underlying numbers favoured them — a side the result flattered to deceive.
regression_tomorrowOAK @ DET
Jack Perkins: 6.75 ERA vs 4.08 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs DET. A 6.75 ERA against a 4.08 expected ERA (2.67 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .264 vs .239 expected.
regression_watchMIL @ STL
Michael McGreevy: 3.12 ERA vs 5.59 xERA
Michael McGreevy carries a 3.12 ERA against a 5.59 expected ERA (2.48 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .237 off him vs a .292 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
rest_fatigueATL @ PIT
14.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for ATL
Relievers have absorbed 14.3 innings over the last 3 games (Connor Thomas (3.7) and Carlos Carrasco (2) the heaviest). PIT's pen has thrown 11.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 3-0
heat_checkTOR @ SF
Heliot Ramos: 1.174 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.174 OPS spans the last 15 days (36 PA) against a .810 season baseline, a 0.364 swing. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
rest_fatigueOAK @ DET
14.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for OAK
Relievers have absorbed 14.3 innings over the last 3 games (Kade Morris (3) and Jacob Lopez (3) the heaviest). DET's pen has thrown 9.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 1-6
bullpen_fatigueBOS @ CHW
Chicago White Sox pen: 15.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Chicago White Sox's bullpen has thrown 15.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 2 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
bullpen_fatigueLAA @ TEX
Texas Rangers pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Texas Rangers's bullpen has thrown 12.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
situationalALG @ SUI
Algeria arrive on 5 days' rest; Switzerland have had 8
Algeria come into the fixture on 5 days' rest while Switzerland have had 8 days' — a 3-day recovery gap in the July 3 meeting.
rest_fatigueLAA @ TEX
LAA's pen has logged 14 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 14 innings out of the pen — Jose Fermin (3) and Mitch Farris (3) carried the load. TEX's pen has thrown 12.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 13-1
cooling_offCHC @ BAL
Gunnar Henderson: .479 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Colin Rea
Gunnar Henderson's .479 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .699 season mark, down 0.22. Tonight he draws RHP Colin Rea — his weaker side: a .695 OPS vs RHP across 266 AB.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
ballpark_shiftATL @ PIT
Jared Jones owns a 6.92 ERA at PNC Park — 3.94 everywhere else
Across 3 games (13 IP) at PNC Park, Jared Jones has a 6.92 ERA against 3.94 at his other parks (16 IP). Hitters bat .269 off him here.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
starter_formCOL @ LAD
Roki Sasaki: 8.53 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (12.7 IP) he has been tagged for 12 earned runs — a 8.53 ERA with a 1.74 WHIP (1.40 season) against a 5.40 season mark.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
bullpen_fatigueKC @ NYM
Kansas City Royals pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Kansas City Royals's bullpen has thrown 12.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
advancementPAR @ USA
USA and Paraguay both set to advance from Group D
The market has USA all but through to reach the last 16 at -10000 (1st, 6 pts). Paraguay are -800 (3rd, 4 pts) to join them.
advancementAUS @ PAR
Australia and Paraguay both set to advance from Group D
The market has Australia all but through to reach the last 16 at -1400 (2nd, 4 pts). Paraguay are -800 (3rd, 4 pts) to join them.
advancementAUS @ USA
USA and Australia both set to advance from Group D
The market has USA all but through to reach the last 16 at -10000 (1st, 6 pts). Australia are -1400 (2nd, 4 pts) to join them.
advancementRSA @ CZE
Czechia and South Africa scrap to advance from Group A
The market has Czechia up against it to reach the last 16 at +225 (4th, 1 pt). South Africa are +450 (2nd, 4 pts) to join them.
advancementURU @ KSA
Uruguay and Saudi Arabia scrap to advance from Group H
The market has Uruguay roughly even money to reach the last 16 at +120 (3rd, 2 pts). Saudi Arabia are +170 (4th, 2 pts) to join them.
advancementBIH @ SUI
Switzerland and Bosnia & Herzegovina both set to advance from Group B
The market has Switzerland all but through to reach the last 16 at -750 (1st, 7 pts). Bosnia & Herzegovina are -250 (3rd, 4 pts) to join them.
starter_formCHC @ BAL
Colin Rea: 1.76 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 15.3 innings, 3 earned runs, 12 Ks. That 1.76 ERA sits 2.97 runs under his 4.74 season number.
P 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
advancementFRA @ NOR
Norway and France both set to advance from Group I
The market has Norway all but through to reach the last 16 at -10000 (2nd, 6 pts). France are -5000 (1st, 9 pts) to join them.
xg_regressionPAR @ TUR
Türkiye have created more than they've scored
Türkiye are scoring 1.0/match on 2.0 xG — 1.0 goals/match below expected across 3 matches. The chances are there; they're due for the finishing to catch up.
xg_regressionTUR @ AUS
Türkiye have created more than they've scored
Türkiye are scoring 1.0/match on 2.0 xG — 1.0 goals/match below expected across 3 matches. The chances are there; they're due for the finishing to catch up.
xg_regressionUSA @ TUR
Türkiye have created more than they've scored
Türkiye are scoring 1.0/match on 2.0 xG — 1.0 goals/match below expected across 3 matches. The chances are there; they're due for the finishing to catch up.
xg_regressionSWE @ JPN
Japan are finishing above their chances
Japan are scoring 2.0/match on 1.0 xG — 1.0 goals/match above expected across 4 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
ballpark_shiftCLE @ MIN
At Target Field, Connor Prielipp pitches to a 3.99 ERA
Connor Prielipp at Target Field: 3.99 ERA over 38.3 innings (7G) — 6.56 on a 23.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .216 off him here.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
starter_formNYY @ TB
Gerrit Cole: 6.75 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 6.75 ERA over his last 14.7 innings with a 1.57 WHIP (1.20 season) — the 4.01 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
starter_formKC @ NYM
Christian Scott: 6.23 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 6.23 ERA over his last 13 innings with a 1.46 WHIP (1.35 season) — the 3.49 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
tournamentGROUP B
Switzerland are the shortest group-winner chalk on the board
Switzerland are -100000 to win Group B — the shortest group-winner price of the tournament. The next side in Group B, Canada, is out at +135.
tournamentPATH TO THE FINAL
Argentina are the market's pick to reach the final from the other half
Behind the outright favourite, Argentina carry the shortest price to reach the final at +120 — the side the market most expects to come through the other half of the bracket.
xg_regressionECU @ CIV
Ecuador have created more than they've scored
Ecuador are scoring 0.5/match on 1.5 xG — 1.0 goals/match below expected across 4 matches. The chances are there; they're due for the finishing to catch up.
regression_watchCOL @ LAD
Cole Carrigg: .318 AVG vs .259 xBA
Cole Carrigg is hitting .318 against a .259 expected average (xBA) over 101 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .414 against a .344 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
xg_regressionCUW @ ECU
Ecuador have created more than they've scored
Ecuador are scoring 0.5/match on 1.5 xG — 1.0 goals/match below expected across 4 matches. The chances are there; they're due for the finishing to catch up.
xg_regressionGER @ ECU
Ecuador have created more than they've scored
Ecuador are scoring 0.5/match on 1.5 xG — 1.0 goals/match below expected across 4 matches. The chances are there; they're due for the finishing to catch up.
rest_fatigueHOU @ WSH
WSH's bullpen has covered 13 innings over the last 3 games
That is 13 relief innings in 3 games, led by Eddy Yean (2) and Justin Lawrence (2). HOU's pen has thrown 12.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 2-8
xg_regressionJPN @ TUN
Japan are finishing above their chances
Japan are scoring 2.0/match on 1.0 xG — 1.0 goals/match above expected across 4 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
ballparkENG @ NOR
Norway vs England: 93°F heat at Hard Rock Stadium
It reads 93°F at kickoff — serious heat that tests conditioning and tends to drag the second-half tempo. Conditions at Hard Rock Stadium: 93°F, 13 mph wind, 12% rain.
regression_tomorrowARI @ SD
Merrill Kelly: 5.71 ERA vs 7.78 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs SD. A 5.71 ERA against a 7.78 expected ERA (2.07 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .291 vs .311 expected.
regression_watchKC @ NYM
Francisco Lindor: .210 AVG vs .265 xBA
Francisco Lindor is hitting .210 against a .265 expected average (xBA) over 155 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .292 against a .348 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
regression_watchCOL @ LAD
Mickey Moniak: .282 AVG vs .229 xBA
Mickey Moniak's .282 average comes against a .229 expected (xBA) on 212 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .395 against a .319 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
regression_watchOAK @ DET
Zack Gelof: .281 AVG vs .229 xBA
Zack Gelof is hitting .281 against a .229 expected average (xBA) over 241 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .357 against a .294 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
ballpark_shiftMIL @ STL
At Busch Stadium, Michael McGreevy pitches to a 1.96 ERA
Michael McGreevy at Busch Stadium: 1.96 ERA over 46 innings (8G) — 4.20 on a 49.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .222 off him here.
P 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
situationalPAR @ TUR
Türkiye arrive on 5 days' rest; Paraguay have had 7
Türkiye come into the fixture on 5 days' rest while Paraguay have had 7 days' — a 2-day recovery gap in the June 20 meeting.
situationalBIH @ USA
USA arrive on 5 days' rest; Bosnia & Herzegovina have had 7
USA come into the fixture on 5 days' rest while Bosnia & Herzegovina have had 7 days' — a 2-day recovery gap in the July 2 meeting.
streakCPV @ ESP
Spain are winless in their last 3 World Cup matches
Across their last 8 2022 World Cup matches they are 2-4-2 (L-L-D-W-D-D-W-D), carrying 3 straight World Cup games without a win.
streakCOL @ UZB
Colombia are unbeaten in their last 3 World Cup matches
Across their last 4 2018 World Cup matches they are 2-1-1 (D-W-W-L), carrying a 3-match unbeaten run.
regression_watchOAK @ DET
Matt Vierling: .203 AVG vs .252 xBA
Matt Vierling's .203 average comes against a .252 expected (xBA) on 244 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .262 against a .302 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
regression_tomorrowARI @ SD
Griffin Canning: 6.71 ERA vs 4.81 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs ARI. A 6.71 ERA against a 4.81 expected ERA (1.9 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .269 vs .245 expected.
regression_watchATL @ PIT
Jake Mangum: .305 AVG vs .256 xBA
Across 235 plate appearances, Jake Mangum carries a .305 average versus a .256 xBA. His wOBA sits at .322 against a .284 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
park_weatherKC @ NYM
Wind blowing out 11 mph at Citi Field tonight
Tonight's reading at Citi Field — Clear, 77°, wind 11 mph, Out To LF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 9.5.
P final total 8 vs 9.5 (over lean)
fantasy_pickupsARI @ SD
Gavin Sheets
Sheets slots into the cleanup spot with a respectable 0.77 OPS and a prime opportunity to drive in runs tonight. He faces Jose Cabrera, whose 6.41 xERA indicates he is struggling significantly and is prone to giving up production. Stream him tonight in 12-teamers.
park_weatherTOR @ SF
Wind blowing out 11 mph at Oracle Park tonight
Conditions at Oracle Park: Overcast, 62°, wind 11 mph, Out To CF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 10.5.
P final total 10 vs 10.5 (over lean)
tournamentGROUP G
Group G is the tightest group-winner market
Group G's group-winner market is the most open on the board: Belgium and Egypt both priced inside +250.
regression_watchSEA @ MIA
Otto Lopez: .343 AVG vs .298 xBA
Otto Lopez is hitting .343 against a .298 expected average (xBA) over 388 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .382 against a .342 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
regression_watchSEA @ MIA
Liam Hicks: .295 AVG vs .251 xBA
Across 324 plate appearances, Liam Hicks carries a .295 average versus a .251 xBA. His wOBA sits at .364 against a .311 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
regression_tomorrowCHC @ BAL
David Peterson: 6.75 ERA vs 5.14 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs BAL. A 6.75 ERA against a 5.14 expected ERA (1.61 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .300 vs .280 expected.
ballpark_shiftOAK @ DET
Troy Melton owns a 3.18 ERA at Comerica Park — 1.33 everywhere else
Across 3 games (17 IP) at Comerica Park, Troy Melton has a 3.18 ERA against 1.33 at his other parks (27 IP). Hitters bat .180 off him here.
P 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
regression_watchSEA @ MIA
Tyler Phillips: 3.52 ERA vs 4.81 xERA
Tyler Phillips carries a 3.52 ERA against a 4.81 expected ERA (1.29 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .240 off him vs a .259 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
running_gameSEA @ MIA
Seattle Mariners like to run — Joe Mack (43% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Joe Mack owns a 43% caught-stealing rate (17 of 40) and Seattle Mariners run anyway — 0.7 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Seattle Mariners stole 1 base
tournamentSUREST TO ADVANCE
Côte d'Ivoire are the surest bet to advance
Côte d'Ivoire are -10000 to escape their group out of Group E — the shortest to-advance price on the board.
xg_recapEGY @ ARG
Argentina created the better chances
Argentina led the xG 2.9–0.9 and took the result to match (3–2).
bullpen_fatigueATL @ PIT
Atlanta Braves pen: 14.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Atlanta Braves's bullpen has thrown 14.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 1 arm working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
regression_watchTOR @ SF
Luis Arraez: .327 AVG vs .289 xBA
Luis Arraez is hitting .327 against a .289 expected average (xBA) over 380 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .353 against a .307 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
streakEGY @ BEL
Belgium are winless in their last 2 World Cup matches
Across their last 8 2022 World Cup matches they are 5-1-2 (D-L-W-W-L-W-W-W), carrying 2 straight World Cup games without a win.
streakMAR @ BRA
Morocco are winless in their last 2 World Cup matches
Across their last 8 2022 World Cup matches they are 4-2-2 (L-L-W-W-W-W-D-D), carrying 2 straight World Cup games without a win.
streakCUW @ GER
Germany are unbeaten in their last 2 World Cup matches
Across their last 6 2022 World Cup matches they are 2-1-3 (W-D-L-L-W-L), carrying a 2-match unbeaten run.
fantasy_pickupsMIL @ STL
Garrett Mitchell
Mitchell brings a strong .825 OPS into a favorable matchup against Michael McGreevy and his 5.6 xERA. Batting fifth gives him ample opportunities to drive in runs against a pitcher who has struggled to prevent damage this season. Stream him tonight in 12-teamers.
regression_watchTOR @ SF
Ernie Clement: .298 AVG vs .259 xBA
Across 354 plate appearances, Ernie Clement carries a .298 average versus a .259 xBA. His wOBA sits at .327 against a .275 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
regression_watchKC @ NYM
Christian Scott: 3.49 ERA vs 4.74 xERA
Christian Scott carries a 3.49 ERA against a 4.74 expected ERA (1.25 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .223 off him vs a .241 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
ballpark_shiftKC @ NYM
At Citi Field, Christian Scott pitches to a 4.50 ERA
Christian Scott at Citi Field: 4.50 ERA over 20 innings (5G) — 2.79 on a 29-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .278 off him here.
P 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
regression_watchNYY @ TB
Shane McClanahan: 3.05 ERA vs 4.28 xERA
Shane McClanahan carries a 3.05 ERA against a 4.28 expected ERA (1.23 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .217 off him vs a .247 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
running_gameCLE @ MIN
Green light: Minnesota Twins run, and Austin Hedges has caught just 6%
Austin Hedges is catching tonight at 6% on the season (2-for-33 throwing), and Minnesota Twins attempt 0.9 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Minnesota Twins stole 0 bases
ballpark_shiftCOL @ LAD
Roki Sasaki's ERA drops to 4.62 at Dodger Stadium
Roki Sasaki carries a 4.62 ERA over 8 games (39 IP) at Dodger Stadium vs 6.25 across 36 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .250 off him here.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
ballpark_shiftNYY @ TB
At Tropicana Field, Shane McClanahan pitches to a 2.21 ERA
Shane McClanahan at Tropicana Field: 2.21 ERA over 36.7 innings (7G) — 3.77 on a 43-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .201 off him here.
P 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
regression_watchOAK @ DET
Jeffrey Springs: 5.79 ERA vs 4.61 xERA
Jeffrey Springs carries a 5.79 ERA against a 4.61 expected ERA (1.18 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .262 off him vs a .247 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
regression_watchHOU @ WSH
Foster Griffin: 2.87 ERA vs 4.02 xERA
Foster Griffin carries a 2.87 ERA against a 4.02 expected ERA (1.15 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .210 off him vs a .242 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
xg_recapENG @ MEX
Mexico dominated the ball but didn't win
Mexico held 67% of possession yet lost to England (2–3) — control without the cutting edge.
tournamentGROUP A
Group A: Mexico, South Korea, Czechia, South Africa
Mexico enter as the No. 12 title choice at +8000. Opens June 11: Mexico vs South Africa. Shortest price to win Group A: Mexico at -650.
tournamentGROUP B
Group B: Switzerland, Canada, Qatar, Bosnia & Herzegovina
Switzerland enter as the No. 7 title choice at +3000. Opens June 12: Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina. Shortest price to win Group B: Switzerland at -100000.
tournamentGROUP C
Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti
Morocco enter as the No. 6 title choice at +2700. Opens June 13: Brazil vs Morocco. Shortest price to win Group C: Brazil at -100000.
tournamentGROUP D
Group D: USA, Türkiye, Australia, Paraguay
USA are the market favourite to win Group D at -20000. Opens June 13: USA vs Paraguay.
tournamentGROUP E
Group E: Germany, Côte d'Ivoire, Ecuador, Curaçao
Germany enter as the No. 10 title choice at +4000. Opens June 14: Germany vs Curaçao. Shortest price to win Group E: Germany at -100000.
tournamentGROUP F
Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia
Netherlands enter as the No. 9 title choice at +3500. Opens June 14: Netherlands vs Japan. Shortest price to win Group F: Netherlands at -100000.
tournamentGROUP G
Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
Belgium enter as the No. 8 title choice at +3000. Opens June 15: Belgium vs Egypt. Shortest price to win Group G: Belgium at -100000.
fantasy_pickupsCHC @ BAL
Adley Rutschman
Pickup vs Colin Rea (5.49 xERA) — .777 OPS, bats 2nd.
fantasy_pickupsCHC @ BAL
Samuel Basallo
Pickup vs Colin Rea (5.49 xERA) — .785 OPS, bats 5th.
fantasy_pickupsMIL @ STL
William Contreras
Contreras is hitting a stout .288 and will look to do damage from the cleanup spot against Michael McGreevy. McGreevy's 5.6 xERA makes this a high-upside matchup for a hitter with the .758 OPS and contact skills that Contreras provides. Stream him tonight in 12-teamers.
fantasy_pickupsOAK @ DET
Troy Melton
Streamer vs OAK — 3.07 xERA · 6.5 K/9 · 0.8 WHIP.
running_gameSEA @ MIA
Miami Marlins like to run — Cal Raleigh (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Cal Raleigh owns a 33% caught-stealing rate (11 of 33) and Miami Marlins run anyway — 1.1 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Miami Marlins stole 0 bases
ownedMAR @ FRA
France and Morocco last met at the 2022 World Cup — 2-0
Their lone 2022 World Cup meeting finished 2-0. The 2026 market opens France -170 / the draw +285 / Morocco +500.
regression_tomorrowKC @ NYM
Sean Manaea: 5.16 ERA vs 4.13 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs KC. A 5.16 ERA against a 4.13 expected ERA (1.03 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .262 vs .247 expected.
fantasy_pickupsSEA @ MIA
Randy Arozarena
Pickup vs Tyler Phillips (4.81 xERA) — .834 OPS, bats 2nd.
running_gameATL @ PIT
Green light: Pittsburgh Pirates run, and Joey Bart has caught just 14%
Joey Bart is catching tonight at 14% on the season (4-for-29 throwing), and Pittsburgh Pirates attempt 1.1 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Pittsburgh Pirates stole 1 base
fantasy_pickupsNYY @ TB
Gerrit Cole
Streamer vs TB — 3.34 xERA · 8.6 K/9 · 1.2 WHIP.
running_gameMIL @ STL
Milwaukee Brewers like to run — Pedro Pages (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Milwaukee Brewers attempt 1.2 steals a game, but Pedro Pages has cut down 16 of 48 runners (33%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 0 bases
fantasy_pickupsCHC @ BAL
Taylor Ward
Pickup vs Colin Rea (5.49 xERA) — .730 OPS, bats 3rd.
running_gameCLE @ MIN
Green light: Cleveland Guardians run, and Victor Caratini has caught just 15%
Cleveland Guardians steal 0.9 bags a game (84 on the season) and Victor Caratini has thrown out 8 of 53 runners (15%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
P Cleveland Guardians stole 1 base
advancementBIH @ CAN
Bosnia & Herzegovina's route through Group B
The market has Bosnia & Herzegovina strong favorites to reach the last 16 at -250 (3rd, 4 pts).
advancementSUI @ QAT
Switzerland's route through Group B
The market has Switzerland all but through to reach the last 16 at -750 (1st, 7 pts).
advancementSCO @ HAI
Scotland's route through Group C
The market has Scotland up against it to reach the last 16 at +250 (3rd, 3 pts).
regression_tomorrowLAA @ TEX
Reid Detmers: 4.13 ERA vs 3.19 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TEX. A 4.13 ERA against a 3.19 expected ERA (0.94 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .213 vs .215 expected.
advancementRSA @ MEX
South Africa's route through Group A
The market has South Africa up against it to reach the last 16 at +450 (2nd, 4 pts).
first_inningSEA @ MIA
SEA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Seattle Mariners have scored in the first inning just 0 times in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
advancementCZE @ KOR
South Korea hold the edge to advance from Group A
The market has South Korea all but through to reach the last 16 at -2500 (3rd, 3 pts). Czechia are +225 (4th, 1 pt) to join them.
ballparkEGY @ ARG
Argentina vs Egypt: indoors at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Mercedes-Benz Stadium is a closed-roof venue — closed roof with air conditioning. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
regression_tomorrowSEA @ MIA
Janson Junk: 4.8 ERA vs 4 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs SEA. A 4.8 ERA against a 4 expected ERA (0.8 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .273 vs .256 expected.
regression_tomorrowBOS @ CHW
Anthony Kay: 4.39 ERA vs 5.24 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs BOS. A 4.39 ERA against a 5.24 expected ERA (0.85 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .258 vs .267 expected.
ballparkCOL @ SUI
Switzerland vs Colombia: indoors at BC Place
BC Place is a retractable-roof venue — retractable roof, mild Pacific climate. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
ballparkW10 @ W99
W99 vs W100: indoors at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Mercedes-Benz Stadium is a closed-roof venue — closed roof with air conditioning. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
ballparkW98 @ W97
W97 vs W98: indoors at AT&T Stadium
AT&T Stadium is a retractable-roof venue — retractable roof with air conditioning. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
ballparkBEL @ ESP
Spain vs Belgium: indoors at SoFi Stadium
SoFi Stadium is a closed-roof venue — canopy roof, climate-managed. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
fantasy_pickupsHOU @ WSH
Foster Griffin
Streamer vs HOU — 4.02 xERA · 8.7 K/9 · 1.04 WHIP.
ballparkMAR @ FRA
France vs Morocco: warm at Gillette Stadium
87°F at kickoff — warm enough to weigh on legs across 90+ minutes. Conditions at Gillette Stadium: 87°F, 11 mph wind, 1% rain.
first_inningARI @ SD
ARI strike first: 1st-inning runs in 7 of their last 10
Arizona Diamondbacks have put up a first-inning run in 7 of their last 10 games — they jump on starters early and the YRFI side of their games has been doing the work.
P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st
first_inningCOL @ LAD
COL strike first: 1st-inning runs in 7 of their last 10
Colorado Rockies have put up a first-inning run in 7 of their last 10 games — they jump on starters early and the YRFI side of their games has been doing the work.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningMIL @ STL
MIL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Milwaukee Brewers have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningCLE @ MIN
MIN strike first: 1st-inning runs in 7 of their last 10
Minnesota Twins have put up a first-inning run in 7 of their last 10 games — they jump on starters early and the YRFI side of their games has been doing the work.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

Graded results

Games

W
Reds ML -142
MLB · 5-11
L
Dodgers -1.5 -125
MLB · 3-4
W
Red Sox ML -104
MLB · 5-0
L
Guardians ML +102
MLB · 5-6
W
Padres ML -142
MLB · 4-10
L
Rangers ML -152
MLB · 13-1
W
Blue Jays ML -126
MLB · 10-0
W
Rays ML -118
MLB · 0-3
L
Astros ML +116
MLB · 2-8
L
Seattle Mariners ML -130
MLB · 0-2
W
Braves ML +102
MLB · 3-0
W
Tigers ML -134
MLB · 1-6
L
Orioles ML -126
MLB · 9-7
W
Mets ML -196
MLB · 2-6
L
Brewers ML -152
MLB · 1-5

Props

L
Adley Rutschman · over
Cubs @ Orioles · Actual 1
L
Bobby Witt Jr. · over
Royals @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Bryce Harper · over
Phillies @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Chase DeLauter · over
Guardians @ Twins · Actual 2
W
Christian Walker · over
Astros @ Nationals · Actual 2
L
Cole Carrigg · over
Rockies @ Dodgers · Actual 0
W
Elly De La Cruz · over
Phillies @ Reds · Actual 7
W
Elly De La Cruz · over
Phillies @ Reds · Actual 1
L
Ian Happ · over
Cubs @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Jake Bauers · over
Brewers @ Cardinals · Actual 0
W
James Wood · over
Astros @ Nationals · Actual 3
W
Jordan Walker · over
Brewers @ Cardinals · Actual 3
L
Juan Soto · over
Royals @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Juan Soto · over
Royals @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Ketel Marte · over
Diamondbacks @ Padres · Actual 1
W
Kody Clemens · over
Guardians @ Twins · Actual 4
W
Kyle Schwarber · over
Phillies @ Reds · Actual 1
L
Luke Raley · over
Mariners @ Marlins · Actual 1
W
Michael Harris II · over
Braves @ Pirates · Actual 2
L
Miguel Vargas · over
Red Sox @ White Sox · Actual 0
W
Mike Trout · over
Angels @ Rangers · Actual 1
W
Otto Lopez · over
Mariners @ Marlins · Actual 3
W
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Cubs @ Orioles · Actual 7
W
Rafael Devers · over
Blue Jays @ Giants · Actual 1
L
Ryan O'Hearn · over
Braves @ Pirates · Actual 1
L
Samuel Basallo · over
Cubs @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Shohei Ohtani · over
Rockies @ Dodgers · Actual 0
W
Spencer Torkelson · over
Athletics @ Tigers · Actual 4
L
Tyler Tolbert · over
Royals @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Willson Contreras · over
Red Sox @ White Sox · Actual 0
L
Willson Contreras · over
Red Sox @ White Sox · Actual 0
W
Yandy Diaz · over
Yankees @ Rays · Actual 5
L
Zach Neto · over
Angels @ Rangers · Actual 0