Sports Picks Archive — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Giants· -126

Welcome to a sunny afternoon at Oracle Park, where the wind is blowing out toward center field and the stage is set for a classic rubber match between the Toronto Blue Jays and the San Francisco Giants. My money is on the visiting Blue Jays today because they hold a distinct advantage on the mound. Dylan Cease is an absolute strikeout artist with a 2.79 ERA and 137 strikeouts in 90.1 innings this season. Over his last five starts, he has been in peak form, recording 45 strikeouts in 28.1 innings. While the Giants' lineup features five left-handed batters to gain a platoon advantage, Cease has actually dominated lefties this year, holding them to a .192 batting average and a .596 OPS. Because Cease gets so many swings and misses, he doesn't have to rely on his defense or worry about balls in play under today's windy conditions. The bullpen discrepancy further tilts the scales in Toronto's favor. While the Blue Jays can call upon a rested, elite late-inning core featuring Tyler Rogers and closer Louis Varland, the Giants' relief unit is severely depleted. Matt Gage recently landed on the injured list, and Spencer Bivens is likely unavailable after throwing 51 pitches. If Logan Webb struggles or runs up a high pitch count early, San Francisco has very little reliable depth to bridge the gap. While Webb is a quality starter, his 3.66 ERA masks a 4.00 xERA, indicating some regression is on the horizon. Furthermore, Toronto's hitters have 21 career at-bats of familiarity against him, whereas the Giants' hitters have never faced Cease. With a superior starting pitcher in prime form, an elite and healthy bullpen, and an offense with the tools to exploit Webb's regression, backing the Blue Jays on the moneyline at a reasonable price is the smartest play on the board.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Cubs· -126

A warm summer evening sets the stage at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, where the Baltimore Orioles look to even the series against the visiting Chicago Cubs under a partly cloudy sky with wind blowing out to left field. This matchup heavily favors the Orioles on the mound, specifically due to Colin Rea's extreme splits. Rea has been a completely different pitcher away from Wrigley Field, posting a 6.60 road ERA compared to a 2.72 mark at home. Tonight, he faces a Baltimore lineup that is built to expose his primary weakness: left-handed hitters. Rea has surrendered a .310 batting average and an .835 OPS to lefties this season. Baltimore rolls out six left-handed or switch-hitting bats—including Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Samuel Basallo, Dylan Beavers, Colton Cowser, and Jackson Holliday—to relentlessly pressure Rea from the left side. While Baltimore has struggled to turn hits into runs lately, their underlying offensive quality is primed for positive regression. Over their last three games, the Orioles have registered a robust .373 expected wOBA and a sharp 91.4 mph average exit velocity. Power bats like Pete Alonso (.458 xwOBA against four-seamers) and Taylor Ward (.365 average against sinkers) match up perfectly against Rea’s fastball-heavy repertoire. On the pitching side, Dean Kremer offers a highly reliable option at home, holding a 2.45 home ERA and a solid 33.3% hard-hit rate. Additionally, the bullpen dynamic is a massive edge for the Orioles. While they are navigating fresh injuries to Ryan Helsley and Keegan Akin, their primary high-leverage arms like Tyler Wells and Yennier Cano are completely rested and have not thrown since July 4. Conversely, the Cubs' bullpen is in a precarious situation. Chicago’s primary late-inning options—Trent Thornton, Jacob Webb, and Tyler Ferguson—all worked in yesterday's victory, with Thornton and Webb having pitched twice in the last three days. With a warm 83°F night and wind blowing out to left, any starter who fails to go deep will force a tired bullpen into action. Given Rea's road struggles and his propensity to allow hard contact (41.6% hard-hit rate), he is unlikely to keep this potent Baltimore lineup at bay. The Orioles' rested relief core and their devastating left-handed matchup advantage will carry them to victory. Back the home team to take care of business on the moneyline.

While Baltimore has struggled to turn hits into runs lately, their underlying offensive quality is primed for positive regression. Over their last three games, the Orioles have registered a robust .373 expected wOBA and a sharp 91.4 mph average exit velocity. Power bats like Pete Alonso (.458 xwOBA against four-seamers) and Taylor Ward (.365 average against sinkers) match up perfectly against Rea’s fastball-heavy repertoire. On the pitching side, Dean Kremer offers a highly reliable option at home, holding a 2.45 home ERA and a solid 33.3% hard-hit rate. Additionally, the bullpen dynamic is a massive edge for the Orioles. While they are navigating fresh injuries to Ryan Helsley and Keegan Akin, their primary high-leverage arms like Tyler Wells and Yennier Cano are completely rested and have not thrown since July 4.

Conversely, the Cubs' bullpen is in a precarious situation. Chicago’s primary late-inning options—Trent Thornton, Jacob Webb, and Tyler Ferguson—all worked in yesterday's victory, with Thornton and Webb having pitched twice in the last three days. With a warm 83°F night and wind blowing out to left, any starter who fails to go deep will force a tired bullpen into action. Given Rea's road struggles and his propensity to allow hard contact (41.6% hard-hit rate), he is unlikely to keep this potent Baltimore lineup at bay. The Orioles' rested relief core and their devastating left-handed matchup advantage will carry them to victory. Back the home team to take care of business on the moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Athletics· -134

An early evening clash at Comerica Park brings a contrast of trajectories as the surging Detroit Tigers host the sliding Oakland Athletics on a warm Michigan night. With the sun setting over the deep outfield walls, this matchup presents a clear-cut betting opportunity where the market has simply left too much value on the home side. The pitching matchup is where this handicap begins and ends. Troy Melton has been nearly untouchable for the Tigers, compiling a stellar 4-1 record with a 2.05 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP across 44.0 innings. Melton has completely suppressed contact from opponents, holding left-handed hitters to a .151 average and right-handed hitters to a .180 average. On the other bump, Jeffrey Springs has been in a sustained tailspin for the Athletics, entering with a 3-8 record, a 5.79 ERA, and a 1.38 WHIP. Springs has surrendered 24 home runs on the season and has been shelled to the tune of a 9.89 ERA over his last five starts. Tonight, Springs must navigate a Detroit lineup featuring six right-handed bats, which is disastrous given his brutal .273 average and .874 OPS allowed to righties this season. Beyond the starting arms, the supporting casts and recent forms paint a highly lopsided picture. The Tigers enter tonight riding a three-game winning streak and a hot 7-3 stretch over their last 10 games, posting a plus-22 run differential. The Athletics are headed in the opposite direction, mired in a four-game losing streak and a cold 2-8 skid with a minus-21 run differential. While Oakland gets a boost with Tyler Soderstrom returning to the cleanup spot today, it is not enough to overcome the bullpen disparity. Detroit boasts a reliable 3.73 bullpen ERA with a fresh Kenley Jansen and Kyle Finnegan ready to lock down the late frames. Meanwhile, Oakland's relief corps carries a weak 5.11 ERA and is severely taxed in the middle innings. At -134, the price on a dominant home starter against a struggling lefty who is prone to giving up the long ball is an absolute steal.

The pitching matchup is where this handicap begins and ends. Troy Melton has been nearly untouchable for the Tigers, compiling a stellar 4-1 record with a 2.05 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP across 44.0 innings. Melton has completely suppressed contact from opponents, holding left-handed hitters to a .151 average and right-handed hitters to a .180 average. On the other bump, Jeffrey Springs has been in a sustained tailspin for the Athletics, entering with a 3-8 record, a 5.79 ERA, and a 1.38 WHIP. Springs has surrendered 24 home runs on the season and has been shelled to the tune of a 9.89 ERA over his last five starts. Tonight, Springs must navigate a Detroit lineup featuring six right-handed bats, which is disastrous given his brutal .273 average and .874 OPS allowed to righties this season.

Beyond the starting arms, the supporting casts and recent forms paint a highly lopsided picture. The Tigers enter tonight riding a three-game winning streak and a hot 7-3 stretch over their last 10 games, posting a plus-22 run differential. The Athletics are headed in the opposite direction, mired in a four-game losing streak and a cold 2-8 skid with a minus-21 run differential. While Oakland gets a boost with Tyler Soderstrom returning to the cleanup spot today, it is not enough to overcome the bullpen disparity. Detroit boasts a reliable 3.73 bullpen ERA with a fresh Kenley Jansen and Kyle Finnegan ready to lock down the late frames. Meanwhile, Oakland's relief corps carries a weak 5.11 ERA and is severely taxed in the middle innings. At -134, the price on a dominant home starter against a struggling lefty who is prone to giving up the long ball is an absolute steal.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Pirates· +102

Under the warm evening skies at PNC Park, the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves look to halt a rare three-game skid as they continue their road series against the surging Pittsburgh Pirates. This matchup presents a beautiful situational spot to grab plus-money on a premier team that matches up perfectly with the opposing starter. My read tonight centers on the extreme platoon vulnerability of Pittsburgh starter Jared Jones, which plays directly into the teeth of Atlanta's left-handed core. Jones has been absolutely hammered by left-handed hitters this season, surrendering a .299 batting average and a massive .932 OPS to lefties. He also struggles immensely when pitching in front of his home crowd, posting a dismal 6.92 Home ERA. The Braves' lineup features five left-handed or switch-hitters batting from the left side, including Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies, Drake Baldwin, Mike Yastrzemski, and Matt Olson, who carries a spectacular 0.971 Away OPS. In an 85°F environment with the wind blowing out to right field, these left-handed bats are primed to inflict heavy damage against Jones at his worst venue. On the mound, Grant Holmes has provided stable command for the Braves, offering a 3.83 ERA over 16 starts. While his 4.62 xERA suggests regression is possible, Holmes has held left-handed hitters to a steady .228 batting average and .736 OPS, which matches up well against a Pirates lineup featuring prominent left-handed bats like Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn. Additionally, while the Pirates have been hot, Atlanta has a significant late-inning rest advantage. Yesterday's blowout allowed the Braves to preserve their premier high-leverage arms like closer Raisel Iglesias (2.37 ERA), while Pittsburgh's primary setup arm Carmen Mlodzinski is likely unavailable after a 24-pitch, two-inning appearance yesterday. With a rested high-leverage bullpen ready to shut the door and a glaring matchup advantage against Jones, backing the Braves as a plus-money underdog is the sharp bet tonight.

My read tonight centers on the extreme platoon vulnerability of Pittsburgh starter Jared Jones, which plays directly into the teeth of Atlanta's left-handed core. Jones has been absolutely hammered by left-handed hitters this season, surrendering a .299 batting average and a massive .932 OPS to lefties. He also struggles immensely when pitching in front of his home crowd, posting a dismal 6.92 Home ERA. The Braves' lineup features five left-handed or switch-hitters batting from the left side, including Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies, Drake Baldwin, Mike Yastrzemski, and Matt Olson, who carries a spectacular 0.971 Away OPS. In an 85°F environment with the wind blowing out to right field, these left-handed bats are primed to inflict heavy damage against Jones at his worst venue.

On the mound, Grant Holmes has provided stable command for the Braves, offering a 3.83 ERA over 16 starts. While his 4.62 xERA suggests regression is possible, Holmes has held left-handed hitters to a steady .228 batting average and .736 OPS, which matches up well against a Pirates lineup featuring prominent left-handed bats like Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn. Additionally, while the Pirates have been hot, Atlanta has a significant late-inning rest advantage. Yesterday's blowout allowed the Braves to preserve their premier high-leverage arms like closer Raisel Iglesias (2.37 ERA), while Pittsburgh's primary setup arm Carmen Mlodzinski is likely unavailable after a 24-pitch, two-inning appearance yesterday. With a rested high-leverage bullpen ready to shut the door and a glaring matchup advantage against Jones, backing the Braves as a plus-money underdog is the sharp bet tonight.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Yankees· -118

The lights are bright under the dome at Tropicana Field as the first-place Tampa Bay Rays look to tighten their grip on the American League East against a sliding divisional rival in the New York Yankees. With two of the division's premier arms taking the mound, this Wednesday night clash has all the makings of a classic midsummer battle where every single mistake will be magnified. My money tonight is riding on the Rays moneyline at -118, and it comes down to a glaring gap in home-away performance and current offensive momentum. Tampa Bay has been nearly unstoppable at home this season with a spectacular 32-13 record, while the Yankees have been in a free-fall, losing 10 of their last 12 games overall. Shane McClanahan is on the hill for the Rays, and he has been a complete lockdown artist at Tropicana Field with a superb 2.21 Home ERA. He also holds a devastating matchup edge against the Yankees' remaining left-handed bats; McClanahan has held lefties to a microscopic .148 batting average and a .530 OPS. This spells trouble for a Yankee lineup struggling to find its footing, having struck out 34 times in the first two games of this series. With Paul Goldschmidt mired in a brutal 0-for-30 slump and Ben Rice hitting just .200 since June 1, New York simply doesn't have the current firepower to consistently threaten the Rays' left-hander. On the other side, Gerrit Cole has really struggled on the road this year, posting a bloated 4.87 Away ERA. He faces a major challenge against a righty-heavy Rays lineup that is uniquely built to expose his platoon struggles, as Cole has surrendered a .296 average and a .789 OPS to right-handed hitters. Tampa Bay's premier right-handed bats, Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero, are absolute terrors at home, boasting Home OPS marks of 1.088 and 1.059 respectively. Combine this localized offensive advantage with the Rays' elite team defense, which ranks near the top of the league with a +33 Team DRS compared to the Yankees' flat 0 DRS, and the Rays have a massive edge in run prevention. Even if the Rays' bullpen is slightly more taxed than New York's, having the elite Bryan Baker (1.78 ERA, 24 saves) and Cam Booser (1.35 ERA) available to lock down the late frames gives me all the confidence I need to back the home team at a very reasonable price.

My money tonight is riding on the Rays moneyline at -118, and it comes down to a glaring gap in home-away performance and current offensive momentum. Tampa Bay has been nearly unstoppable at home this season with a spectacular 32-13 record, while the Yankees have been in a free-fall, losing 10 of their last 12 games overall. Shane McClanahan is on the hill for the Rays, and he has been a complete lockdown artist at Tropicana Field with a superb 2.21 Home ERA. He also holds a devastating matchup edge against the Yankees' remaining left-handed bats; McClanahan has held lefties to a microscopic .148 batting average and a .530 OPS. This spells trouble for a Yankee lineup struggling to find its footing, having struck out 34 times in the first two games of this series. With Paul Goldschmidt mired in a brutal 0-for-30 slump and Ben Rice hitting just .200 since June 1, New York simply doesn't have the current firepower to consistently threaten the Rays' left-hander.

On the other side, Gerrit Cole has really struggled on the road this year, posting a bloated 4.87 Away ERA. He faces a major challenge against a righty-heavy Rays lineup that is uniquely built to expose his platoon struggles, as Cole has surrendered a .296 average and a .789 OPS to right-handed hitters. Tampa Bay's premier right-handed bats, Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero, are absolute terrors at home, boasting Home OPS marks of 1.088 and 1.059 respectively. Combine this localized offensive advantage with the Rays' elite team defense, which ranks near the top of the league with a +33 Team DRS compared to the Yankees' flat 0 DRS, and the Rays have a massive edge in run prevention. Even if the Rays' bullpen is slightly more taxed than New York's, having the elite Bryan Baker (1.78 ERA, 24 saves) and Cam Booser (1.35 ERA) available to lock down the late frames gives me all the confidence I need to back the home team at a very reasonable price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Marlins· -130

We've got a cross-coast battle under the roof in Miami tonight as the Seattle Mariners look to even the series against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park. While the market is giving plenty of respect to Miami's home form and Tyler Phillips' surface-level numbers, the sharp money is looking directly at the starting pitching mismatch on the mound. Seattle sends George Kirby to the bump, a reliable workhorse who excels away from home with a 3.16 road ERA and a stellar 3.13 night ERA. On the other side, Phillips is a walking regression candidate. His respectable 3.52 ERA is completely masked by a bloated 4.81 expected ERA (xERA) and an opponent xwOBA of .337. To make matters worse for the Marlins, Phillips has struggled mightily under the lights, carrying a 5.06 night-game ERA. The structural mismatch in this game lies in how the Seattle lineup matches up against Phillips' massive platoon vulnerability. Phillips has been hit hard by left-handed batters all season, allowing an .812 OPS to lefties compared to a minuscule .608 OPS to righties. Seattle is countering this by loading their lineup with seven left-handed bats, including J.P. Crawford, Dominic Canzone, Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, Luke Raley, Cole Young, and Colt Emerson. Luke Raley and Victor Robles have both historically feasted on Phillips, each boasting a 2-for-2 line with a home run in past head-to-head matchups. While Seattle is currently playing without stars Julio Rodríguez and Brendan Donovan, this extreme left-handed deployment is perfectly engineered to knock Phillips out of the game early. Once this game hands over to the bullpens, the advantage tilts heavily back to the Pacific Northwest. Seattle's high-leverage bridge of Gabe Speier, who carries a 1.96 ERA, and JM Ferrer, sporting a 2.37 ERA, are fully rested and ready to hand a lead to closer Andrés Muñoz. Miami’s late-inning situation is highly volatile with closer Pete Fairbanks struggling with a 7.00 ERA and setup man Calvin Faucher likely sidelined after throwing 36 pitches yesterday. With Anthony Bender also on the Injured List, the Marlins simply lack the high-leverage arms to hold off Seattle's late-inning push. Lay the reasonable price on the road favorite.

The structural mismatch in this game lies in how the Seattle lineup matches up against Phillips' massive platoon vulnerability. Phillips has been hit hard by left-handed batters all season, allowing an .812 OPS to lefties compared to a minuscule .608 OPS to righties. Seattle is countering this by loading their lineup with seven left-handed bats, including J.P. Crawford, Dominic Canzone, Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, Luke Raley, Cole Young, and Colt Emerson. Luke Raley and Victor Robles have both historically feasted on Phillips, each boasting a 2-for-2 line with a home run in past head-to-head matchups. While Seattle is currently playing without stars Julio Rodríguez and Brendan Donovan, this extreme left-handed deployment is perfectly engineered to knock Phillips out of the game early.

Once this game hands over to the bullpens, the advantage tilts heavily back to the Pacific Northwest. Seattle's high-leverage bridge of Gabe Speier, who carries a 1.96 ERA, and JM Ferrer, sporting a 2.37 ERA, are fully rested and ready to hand a lead to closer Andrés Muñoz. Miami’s late-inning situation is highly volatile with closer Pete Fairbanks struggling with a 7.00 ERA and setup man Calvin Faucher likely sidelined after throwing 36 pitches yesterday. With Anthony Bender also on the Injured List, the Marlins simply lack the high-leverage arms to hold off Seattle's late-inning push. Lay the reasonable price on the road favorite.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Nationals· +116

Under the partly cloudy skies of Nationals Park, the heat of an 81-degree evening sets the stage for a high-stakes rubber match as the Houston Astros look to out-maneuver the Washington Nationals in the nation's capital. While the betting public will scramble to back the home favorite because of Foster Griffin’s brilliant surface numbers, the smart money is sitting right here on Houston at a very attractive plus-money price. The centerpiece of this bet is the dramatic matchup advantage created by Houston’s offensive game plan. Griffin enters tonight with a stellar 2.87 ERA, but his underlying 4.02 xERA indicates that regression is looming. More importantly, Griffin has a distinct platoon split: lefties hit just .153 against him with a .520 OPS, but right-handed hitters find much more success, batting .234 with a .693 OPS and hitting 13 home runs against him in 274 at-bats. Houston has neutralized Griffin’s primary weapon by stacking eight right-handed bats in their starting lineup tonight, placing immense pressure on the left-hander and exposing his tendency to surrender the long ball to righties. On the other side, Spencer Arrighetti possesses the ultimate weapon to stifle Washington's top threat. Arrighetti features a curveball with a 35.1% whiff rate that matches up perfectly against Nationals rookie James Wood, who has struggled mightily against the pitch, batting a meager .071 in 32 plate appearances. Additionally, the fundamental edge belongs to Houston; the Astros have committed only 41 errors with a .987 fielding percentage, whereas Washington’s defense has been sloppy, tallying 72 errors and a .979 fielding percentage. With Griffin’s ground-ball profile, his defense will be heavily tested by the balls he coaxes, creating a high-risk environment for the home team. Back the Astros to exploit these tactical cracks and secure the road win.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Phillies· -142

The stage is set under the warm Cincinnati sky at Great American Ball Park as our Reds send their dynamic young ace, Chase Burns, to the mound in a pivotal clash against the visiting Philadelphia Phillies. As a lifelong Reds fan who grew up watching this team and dreaming of moments like this, I have absolute belief in what this organization is building—and tonight, that optimism is backed by serious cold, hard data. We are rolling out our absolute superstar, Chase Burns, who has been nothing short of spectacular with a 10-1 record, a 2.40 ERA, and 116 strikeouts in 97.2 innings. At home in Cincinnati, Burns has been nearly untouchable, pitching to a stellar 1.99 ERA. His primary weapon is an elite slider that boasts a ridiculous 54.9% whiff rate and a tiny .200 expected wOBA. While the Phillies possess dangerous left-handed bats like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, Burns has the raw, elite stuff to neutralize threat after threat when the lights shine brightest. The real tactical edge tonight lies in the pitching matchup disparity. The Phillies are forced to run out a bullpen game starting with Alan Rangel, who has pitched just 16.0 innings this year to a 1.31 WHIP. Rangel has shown a massive vulnerability against left-handed hitters, allowing a .289 average and an .831 OPS. That plays perfectly into the hands of our most dangerous weapons at the top of the order, where switch-hitting and left-handed threats like Elly De La Cruz, JJ Bleday, and TJ Friedl can jump on his 93 mph fastball early. Once Rangel is chased, the Phillies will have to rely on a heavily taxed relief corps to piece together the remaining innings in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league. The public might look at the teams' recent trends and worry about our Reds coming off a tough 3-7 stretch, but that is exactly why we get value on the moneyline at -142. Philadelphia has their own pitching struggles, having allowed 5.5 runs per game over their last ten outings. With a Cy Young candidate on our mound and the Phillies forced to piece together nine innings in a tough road environment, this is the ultimate spot for the Reds to flex their muscles and show the baseball world what this organization's future is all about. Trust the ace, trust the home-field advantage, and back Cincinnati on the moneyline.

As a lifelong Reds fan who grew up watching this team and dreaming of moments like this, I have absolute belief in what this organization is building—and tonight, that optimism is backed by serious cold, hard data. We are rolling out our absolute superstar, Chase Burns, who has been nothing short of spectacular with a 10-1 record, a 2.40 ERA, and 116 strikeouts in 97.2 innings. At home in Cincinnati, Burns has been nearly untouchable, pitching to a stellar 1.99 ERA. His primary weapon is an elite slider that boasts a ridiculous 54.9% whiff rate and a tiny .200 expected wOBA. While the Phillies possess dangerous left-handed bats like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, Burns has the raw, elite stuff to neutralize threat after threat when the lights shine brightest.

The real tactical edge tonight lies in the pitching matchup disparity. The Phillies are forced to run out a bullpen game starting with Alan Rangel, who has pitched just 16.0 innings this year to a 1.31 WHIP. Rangel has shown a massive vulnerability against left-handed hitters, allowing a .289 average and an .831 OPS. That plays perfectly into the hands of our most dangerous weapons at the top of the order, where switch-hitting and left-handed threats like Elly De La Cruz, JJ Bleday, and TJ Friedl can jump on his 93 mph fastball early. Once Rangel is chased, the Phillies will have to rely on a heavily taxed relief corps to piece together the remaining innings in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league.

The public might look at the teams' recent trends and worry about our Reds coming off a tough 3-7 stretch, but that is exactly why we get value on the moneyline at -142. Philadelphia has their own pitching struggles, having allowed 5.5 runs per game over their last ten outings. With a Cy Young candidate on our mound and the Phillies forced to piece together nine innings in a tough road environment, this is the ultimate spot for the Reds to flex their muscles and show the baseball world what this organization's future is all about. Trust the ace, trust the home-field advantage, and back Cincinnati on the moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Royals· -196

A humid July evening in Queens sets the stage at Citi Field as the New York Mets look to bounce back from yesterday's wild slugfest against the visiting Kansas City Royals. This matchup has all the makings of another high-scoring, volatile environment, with clear skies and an 11 mph wind blowing straight out to left field. At first glance, paying -196 on the Mets feels steep for two teams sitting at identical 38-54 records, but digging into the pitching profiles reveals a massive tactical advantage for New York. The Royals are turning to Steven Cruz as an opener, and while his 4.02 xERA suggests he is better than his 5.08 surface ERA, his extreme platoon liabilities are a recipe for disaster against a lefty-heavy Mets lineup that features Juan Soto, Carson Benge, and the newly reinstated Jorge Polanco. Cruz relies heavily on his 98.1 mph four-seam fastball, which he throws 58% of the time, but he has been absolutely crushed by left-handed hitters to the tune of a .905 OPS and seven home runs in just 67 at-bats. That is a fatal flaw tonight. Soto and Benge are both lethal against fastballs, holding a spectacular .486 xwOBA against four-seamers, and Soto has been a force at Citi Field with a 1.123 home OPS. If Cruz gets knocked out early, Kansas City's fatigued bullpen will be forced to cover seven or eight innings. Primary setup men Daniel Lynch IV (2.41 ERA) and John Schreiber (3.53 ERA) both worked heavily in yesterday's 16-12 marathon, leaving the Royals' middle relief incredibly vulnerable to a Mets offense that is averaging a .410 xwOBA over its last three games. While Mets starter Christian Scott is a regression candidate sporting a 3.49 ERA against a 4.78 xERA, his ability to eat four to five innings provides much-needed stability compared to the Royals' chaotic bullpen game. Scott will need to navigate Bobby Witt Jr., who hits sweepers hard with a .347 batting average, but once Scott hands the ball over, the Mets' bullpen is primed to close the door. High-leverage weapons Luke Weaver (1.89 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) and closer Devin Williams did not pitch yesterday and are completely rested. My read is that the Mets' offense jumps on Cruz's platoon weakness early, exploits a depleted Royals bullpen in the middle innings, and lets their rested high-leverage arms secure the win. Lay the juice on the home team.

Cruz relies heavily on his 98.1 mph four-seam fastball, which he throws 58% of the time, but he has been absolutely crushed by left-handed hitters to the tune of a .905 OPS and seven home runs in just 67 at-bats. That is a fatal flaw tonight. Soto and Benge are both lethal against fastballs, holding a spectacular .486 xwOBA against four-seamers, and Soto has been a force at Citi Field with a 1.123 home OPS. If Cruz gets knocked out early, Kansas City's fatigued bullpen will be forced to cover seven or eight innings. Primary setup men Daniel Lynch IV (2.41 ERA) and John Schreiber (3.53 ERA) both worked heavily in yesterday's 16-12 marathon, leaving the Royals' middle relief incredibly vulnerable to a Mets offense that is averaging a .410 xwOBA over its last three games.

While Mets starter Christian Scott is a regression candidate sporting a 3.49 ERA against a 4.78 xERA, his ability to eat four to five innings provides much-needed stability compared to the Royals' chaotic bullpen game. Scott will need to navigate Bobby Witt Jr., who hits sweepers hard with a .347 batting average, but once Scott hands the ball over, the Mets' bullpen is primed to close the door. High-leverage weapons Luke Weaver (1.89 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) and closer Devin Williams did not pitch yesterday and are completely rested. My read is that the Mets' offense jumps on Cruz's platoon weakness early, exploits a depleted Royals bullpen in the middle innings, and lets their rested high-leverage arms secure the win. Lay the juice on the home team.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ White Sox· -104

A midsummer AL clash heats up under the Chicago lights tonight as the division-leading White Sox host the surging Red Sox at Rate Field. With the temperature sitting at 88 degrees and an 8 mph wind blowing in from right field, this matchup offers a fascinating battle between two teams trending in opposite directions. The Red Sox come into this contest as one of the hottest teams in the majors, riding an 8-2 run over their last 10 games, which includes a dominant 8-1 victory in yesterday’s series opener. Their recent play has made a mockery of their sub-.500 record of 41-48, supported by a healthy +32 season run differential. Tonight, Boston hands the ball to rookie left-hander Jake Bennett, who has been absolutely outstanding through seven starts. Bennett carries a 3.10 ERA, but his underlying 2.83 xERA reveals a pitcher who is even better than his basic numbers suggest. Armed with an elite changeup that has limited opponents to a microscopic .137 xwOBA, Bennett has allowed just three earned runs over his last 20 innings. He matches up beautifully against a White Sox lineup that is still reeling from the fresh loss of their premier slugger Munetaka Murakami, who was placed on the 10-day injured list on July 5 with a hamstring injury. In their first full game without Murakami’s 20 home runs, Chicago managed just one run in Tuesday's opener. The White Sox, meanwhile, counter with right-hander Davis Martin, whose 9-3 record and 3.08 ERA look pristine on the surface but hide some serious warning signs. Martin's 4.11 xERA represents a massive 1.03-run gap compared to his actual ERA, indicating severe regression is on the horizon. He has been highly susceptible to hard contact, allowing a 44.8% Hard-Hit rate, and is heavily reliant on his sinker to get through games. That is a dangerous recipe against a Red Sox lineup that features Willson Contreras and Connor Wong, both of whom absolutely crush sinkers with Contreras sporting a .926 OPS and Wong hitting .294. While Martin has been elite at home with a 0.88 ERA, his underlying profile is built on sand, and a hot Boston offense is precisely the kind of unit to exploit it. The late-inning advantage also swings heavily toward the visitors. Boston features a completely fresh and locked-in Aroldis Chapman, who has 18 saves and a 2.36 ERA, alongside a steady setup weapon in Garrett Whitlock with a 2.40 ERA. Chicago’s bullpen, by contrast, is in a state of transition after demoting Seranthony Dominguez due to his 4.70 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. At a near-even moneyline price of -104, the value lies entirely with the hotter team, the superior starting pitcher, and the stronger bullpen. Take the Red Sox on the moneyline to keep rolling.

The Red Sox come into this contest as one of the hottest teams in the majors, riding an 8-2 run over their last 10 games, which includes a dominant 8-1 victory in yesterday’s series opener. Their recent play has made a mockery of their sub-.500 record of 41-48, supported by a healthy +32 season run differential. Tonight, Boston hands the ball to rookie left-hander Jake Bennett, who has been absolutely outstanding through seven starts. Bennett carries a 3.10 ERA, but his underlying 2.83 xERA reveals a pitcher who is even better than his basic numbers suggest. Armed with an elite changeup that has limited opponents to a microscopic .137 xwOBA, Bennett has allowed just three earned runs over his last 20 innings. He matches up beautifully against a White Sox lineup that is still reeling from the fresh loss of their premier slugger Munetaka Murakami, who was placed on the 10-day injured list on July 5 with a hamstring injury. In their first full game without Murakami’s 20 home runs, Chicago managed just one run in Tuesday's opener.

The White Sox, meanwhile, counter with right-hander Davis Martin, whose 9-3 record and 3.08 ERA look pristine on the surface but hide some serious warning signs. Martin's 4.11 xERA represents a massive 1.03-run gap compared to his actual ERA, indicating severe regression is on the horizon. He has been highly susceptible to hard contact, allowing a 44.8% Hard-Hit rate, and is heavily reliant on his sinker to get through games. That is a dangerous recipe against a Red Sox lineup that features Willson Contreras and Connor Wong, both of whom absolutely crush sinkers with Contreras sporting a .926 OPS and Wong hitting .294. While Martin has been elite at home with a 0.88 ERA, his underlying profile is built on sand, and a hot Boston offense is precisely the kind of unit to exploit it.

The late-inning advantage also swings heavily toward the visitors. Boston features a completely fresh and locked-in Aroldis Chapman, who has 18 saves and a 2.36 ERA, alongside a steady setup weapon in Garrett Whitlock with a 2.40 ERA. Chicago’s bullpen, by contrast, is in a state of transition after demoting Seranthony Dominguez due to his 4.70 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. At a near-even moneyline price of -104, the value lies entirely with the hotter team, the superior starting pitcher, and the stronger bullpen. Take the Red Sox on the moneyline to keep rolling.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Twins· +102

A high-stakes AL Central battle takes center stage tonight under the clouds at Target Field as the sliding Cleveland Guardians look to snap a three-game skid against the surging Minnesota Twins. In a division where every game feels like October, tonight’s matchup offers a textbook opportunity to grab plus-money value on an underdog with a massive late-game advantage. The headline story tonight is a massive defensive gamble forced by a brand-new injury. With Byron Buxton officially landing on the injured list today due to a hip strain, the Twins are starting infielder Luke Keaschall in center field for the first time in his career. Keaschall has already struggled defensively this season at his natural second base position, posting a concerning -8 OAA and -6 DRS. Asking him to patrol center field behind a fly-ball pitcher like Connor Prielipp, who carries a low 0.86 GO/AO ratio, is a recipe for disaster. Cleveland's offense, though missing its anchor, can exploit this defensive weakness. Chase DeLauter, who bats .360 against left-handed pitching, is perfectly positioned to punish Prielipp's primary mix and test Minnesota's improvised outfield defense. While Prielipp's 4.08 xERA suggests he has been unlucky compared to his 4.96 actual ERA, he faces a Cleveland pitching staff that holds a massive operational edge. Cleveland starter Slade Cecconi brings a stable 4.44 ERA and will benefit from elite defensive support behind the plate, with catcher Austin Hedges providing a massive framing advantage at 6.3 Catcher DEF compared to Victor Caratini's 1.0. More importantly, if this game remains tight into the later frames, the bullpen disparity is staggering. The Twins own an MLB-worst 5.28 bullpen ERA and lack reliable depth behind their primary high-leverage arms. Cleveland, on the other hand, boasts a robust relief corps and a completely fresh closer in Cade Smith, who has racked up 26 saves with a 2.90 ERA and hasn't pitched since Sunday. At +102, the market is overreacting to Cleveland's recent skid, making the Guardians the sharp side to stop the bleeding tonight.

The headline story tonight is a massive defensive gamble forced by a brand-new injury. With Byron Buxton officially landing on the injured list today due to a hip strain, the Twins are starting infielder Luke Keaschall in center field for the first time in his career. Keaschall has already struggled defensively this season at his natural second base position, posting a concerning -8 OAA and -6 DRS. Asking him to patrol center field behind a fly-ball pitcher like Connor Prielipp, who carries a low 0.86 GO/AO ratio, is a recipe for disaster. Cleveland's offense, though missing its anchor, can exploit this defensive weakness. Chase DeLauter, who bats .360 against left-handed pitching, is perfectly positioned to punish Prielipp's primary mix and test Minnesota's improvised outfield defense.

While Prielipp's 4.08 xERA suggests he has been unlucky compared to his 4.96 actual ERA, he faces a Cleveland pitching staff that holds a massive operational edge. Cleveland starter Slade Cecconi brings a stable 4.44 ERA and will benefit from elite defensive support behind the plate, with catcher Austin Hedges providing a massive framing advantage at 6.3 Catcher DEF compared to Victor Caratini's 1.0. More importantly, if this game remains tight into the later frames, the bullpen disparity is staggering. The Twins own an MLB-worst 5.28 bullpen ERA and lack reliable depth behind their primary high-leverage arms. Cleveland, on the other hand, boasts a robust relief corps and a completely fresh closer in Cade Smith, who has racked up 26 saves with a 2.90 ERA and hasn't pitched since Sunday. At +102, the market is overreacting to Cleveland's recent skid, making the Guardians the sharp side to stop the bleeding tonight.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cardinals· -152

The tension is thick at a warm Busch Stadium tonight as the Milwaukee Brewers look to complete a series sweep against a St. Louis Cardinals squad searching for answers after dropping four straight. Milwaukee has taken the first three matchups of this series, outscoring their division rivals 18-8, and they have a prime opportunity to keep rolling tonight. The starting pitching matchup features a glaring discrepancy in underlying quality. Cardinals starter Michael McGreevy has managed a respectable 3.12 ERA, but his underlying metrics paint a much more alarming picture, showing a massive 5.60 xERA and a .360 expected wOBA allowed. He is facing a highly disciplined Milwaukee lineup that features a 23.1% chase rate, which will force him to challenge hitters inside the zone where left-handed bats like Christian Yelich and Garrett Mitchell can exploit his platoon struggles, as McGreevy has surrendered a .703 OPS and nine home runs to lefties this season. On the other side of the mound, Milwaukee sends left-hander Kyle Harrison to the hill. Harrison brings a solid 8-1 record, a 2.82 ERA, and a much more sustainable 3.03 xERA into this contest. While Harrison has shown some vulnerability on the road with a 4.68 road ERA, his elite swing-and-miss stuff—including a slurve with a 47.5% chase rate—should play exceptionally well against a St. Louis offense that has chased at a 36.6% clip over their last three games. The Cardinals’ lineup does feature right-handed power like Jordan Walker and Nelson Velazquez, who boast stellar numbers against southpaws, but Harrison’s 11.2 K/9 capability gives him the tools to work out of high-leverage situations. The ultimate decider in the late innings tonight is the massive disparity in bullpen depth and health. St. Louis is operating with an incredibly fatigued relief unit after yesterday's doubleheader, and they are missing key leverage arms with Ryne Stanek and Justin Bruihl sidelined by fresh injuries. St. Louis has been forced to select Triple-A arm Luis Gastelum and sign independent league depth to patch the holes, which is a dangerous recipe against a potent Brewers team. Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s closer Trevor Megill is fully rested and carries a 0.97 WHIP on the season. Expect Milwaukee's offense to knock McGreevy out early, force St. Louis into their depleted bullpen, and allow the visitors to secure another victory.

On the other side of the mound, Milwaukee sends left-hander Kyle Harrison to the hill. Harrison brings a solid 8-1 record, a 2.82 ERA, and a much more sustainable 3.03 xERA into this contest. While Harrison has shown some vulnerability on the road with a 4.68 road ERA, his elite swing-and-miss stuff—including a slurve with a 47.5% chase rate—should play exceptionally well against a St. Louis offense that has chased at a 36.6% clip over their last three games. The Cardinals’ lineup does feature right-handed power like Jordan Walker and Nelson Velazquez, who boast stellar numbers against southpaws, but Harrison’s 11.2 K/9 capability gives him the tools to work out of high-leverage situations.

The ultimate decider in the late innings tonight is the massive disparity in bullpen depth and health. St. Louis is operating with an incredibly fatigued relief unit after yesterday's doubleheader, and they are missing key leverage arms with Ryne Stanek and Justin Bruihl sidelined by fresh injuries. St. Louis has been forced to select Triple-A arm Luis Gastelum and sign independent league depth to patch the holes, which is a dangerous recipe against a potent Brewers team. Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s closer Trevor Megill is fully rested and carries a 0.97 WHIP on the season. Expect Milwaukee's offense to knock McGreevy out early, force St. Louis into their depleted bullpen, and allow the visitors to secure another victory.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Angels· -152

A crucial American League West battle unfolds tonight at a climate-controlled Globe Life Field as the surging Texas Rangers look to keep their division title chase alive against a desperate Los Angeles Angels squad. While the headlines will rightly focus on the anticipated return of Mike Trout to the Halos' lineup, the real story of this game lies on the mound, where Texas starter MacKenzie Gore is primed to exploit a massive tactical mismatch. Gore has been an absolute force at home this season with a stellar 2.49 ERA, and tonight he faces an Angels lineup featuring eight right-handed hitters. This plays directly into his primary strength, as Gore has dominated righties all year, holding them to a microscopic .211 batting average and .639 OPS. On the other side, the Angels send Walbert Ureña to the hill. Although Ureña boasts a solid 3.03 ERA, his pitching style relies heavily on putting the ball on the ground, evidenced by his 1.37 GO/AO ratio. This ground-ball approach is a recipe for disaster behind an Angels defense that has committed an MLB-high 58 errors this season. By contrast, the Rangers' defense is much tighter, having committed only 42 errors, and features clean infield play to support Gore's fly-ball tendencies. Even with Josh Jung scratched and Corey Seager on the injured list, the Rangers' lineup remains highly disciplined and has veteran bats like Joc Pederson ready to punish high velocity. The bullpen discrepancy also heavily favors Texas. If the game is tight late, the Rangers can call upon their rested, dominant closer Jacob Latz, who has locked down 18 saves with an elite 1.71 ERA and 0.62 WHIP. The Angels' relief core has been in complete disarray, contributing heavily to their current eight-game slide. Texas is playing with urgent purpose as they sit just a half-game out of first place in the division, while the Angels appear to be in a total tailspin. Lay the price with the Rangers on the moneyline to take care of business at home.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Diamondbacks· -142

Tonight at Petco Park, division rivals clash under the Southern California sky as the San Diego Padres look to build momentum against the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks. Both teams enter this contest with identical 45-46 records, but the mismatch on the mound tonight suggests a clear path for the home side. Michael King takes the bump for San Diego, bringing his strong 3.52 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 102.1 innings. King has been electric under the lights this season, posting an impressive 2.44 ERA in night games, which pairs perfectly with his comfortable 3.28 home ERA at Petco Park. His ability to limit hard contact—evidenced by a 34.4% hard-hit rate allowed—will keep the Diamondbacks' bats at bay in this pitcher-friendly park. If the Padres can hand a lead to their bullpen, they have the ultimate safety net in closer Mason Miller, who has been lights-out with a 0.96 ERA and 23-for-23 in save opportunities. On the other side, Arizona is sending rookie Jose Cabrera to the mound, and the underlying metrics point to a massive storm brewing. Cabrera holds a 4.72 ERA, but his 6.41 xERA suggests he has been incredibly lucky to avoid worse results. In limited action, Cabrera has struggled outside of day games and home conditions, pitching to a bloated 7.56 night ERA and a 7.20 road ERA. He leans heavily on a four-seam fastball that opponents have completely demolished to the tune of a .506 xwOBA. Even with Manny Machado out of the lineup tonight due to a fresh toe injury, the Padres' bats—led by Gavin Sheets and his 1.104 OPS with runners in scoring position—should have no trouble finding success against the rookie.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rockies· -125

Under the clear, warm skies of Chavez Ravine, the powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers look to bounce back against a division rival as they send Roki Sasaki to the hill to face Rockies rookie Gabriel Hughes, who is making his first career Major League start. This is a brutal spot for a young pitcher making his big league debut. Hughes relies heavily on his 93.6 mph four-seam fastball, throwing it 66% of the time, which plays directly into the strengths of the Dodgers' primary left-handed power hitters. Freddie Freeman (.349 AVG against four-seamers) and Max Muncy (.316 BA, .500 xwOBA against four-seamers) are primed to feast in these conditions. With the temperature reaching into the eighties at first pitch and an 8 mph wind blowing directly out to right field, Hughes is in for a very long night against a lineup loaded with elite left-handed bats like Ohtani, Tucker, Freeman, and Muncy. While Sasaki has been highly volatile recently, giving up 19 earned runs over his last 17 innings, his home splits (4.62 ERA) remain significantly better than his road numbers (6.25 ERA). More importantly, the Rockies' offense is severely compromised by the fresh injury to Hunter Goodman. Goodman, who leads Colorado with 27 home runs, is out of the lineup for the second straight game with a left hand/wrist contusion, leaving the Rockies with a massive power deficit and forcing Brett Sullivan (.220 AVG) into the starting catcher spot. If Sasaki gets into trouble early, the Dodgers have a fully rested, high-leverage bullpen ready to shut the door. Relievers Tanner Scott (2.70 ERA, 0.82 WHIP) and Alex Vesia (2.40 ERA) did not throw in yesterday's loss and are primed to lock down the late innings, whereas Colorado's relief staff is anchored by a struggling Jordan Romano (7.36 ERA) and Victor Vodnik (6.08 ERA). Rather than laying a steep -255 on the moneyline, the smart play is to attack the run line at -125. The Dodgers have a massive defensive advantage on the season, committing just 28 errors compared to Colorado's 57, and the return of Mookie Betts to shortstop stabilizes the infield after yesterday's defensive breakdown. The Rockies' bottom-five ranked outfield defense will have its hands full trying to track down fly balls in this warm, windy environment. Given the combination of the Dodgers' offensive matchup against a fastball-heavy rookie, their rest advantage in the bullpen, and Colorado's lack of power without Goodman, Los Angeles is in a prime position to break this game open. Trust the Dodgers to bounce back and cover the run line.

While Sasaki has been highly volatile recently, giving up 19 earned runs over his last 17 innings, his home splits (4.62 ERA) remain significantly better than his road numbers (6.25 ERA). More importantly, the Rockies' offense is severely compromised by the fresh injury to Hunter Goodman. Goodman, who leads Colorado with 27 home runs, is out of the lineup for the second straight game with a left hand/wrist contusion, leaving the Rockies with a massive power deficit and forcing Brett Sullivan (.220 AVG) into the starting catcher spot. If Sasaki gets into trouble early, the Dodgers have a fully rested, high-leverage bullpen ready to shut the door. Relievers Tanner Scott (2.70 ERA, 0.82 WHIP) and Alex Vesia (2.40 ERA) did not throw in yesterday's loss and are primed to lock down the late innings, whereas Colorado's relief staff is anchored by a struggling Jordan Romano (7.36 ERA) and Victor Vodnik (6.08 ERA).

Rather than laying a steep -255 on the moneyline, the smart play is to attack the run line at -125. The Dodgers have a massive defensive advantage on the season, committing just 28 errors compared to Colorado's 57, and the return of Mookie Betts to shortstop stabilizes the infield after yesterday's defensive breakdown. The Rockies' bottom-five ranked outfield defense will have its hands full trying to track down fly balls in this warm, windy environment. Given the combination of the Dodgers' offensive matchup against a fastball-heavy rookie, their rest advantage in the bullpen, and Colorado's lack of power without Goodman, Los Angeles is in a prime position to break this game open. Trust the Dodgers to bounce back and cover the run line.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

RAFAEL DEVERSWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBGiants· -107

Dylan Cease is the definition of 'effectively wild' right now. He’s piling up strikeouts (13.7 K/9), but his command is frequently MIA, evidenced by his 15 walks over his last five starts. Rafael Devers is exactly the kind of disciplined veteran who will exploit that. Devers has been exceptionally patient lately, drawing five walks over his last ten games and showing a willingness to take his base rather than chase Cease's high-velocity heater or biting slider. Batting clean-up for the Giants, Devers will likely see Cease with runners on base, which usually forces a pitcher into a more cautious approach. Given Cease’s recent trend of walking at least four batters in 60% of his recent outings, the odds of the Giants' most dangerous left-handed bat earning one of those free passes are significantly better than the -107 price implies.

THE LONG SHOT

ZACH NETOHR OVER 0.5

MLBAngels· +360

Zach Neto represents the strongest statistical case for a home run tonight due to his pronounced platoon splits. This season, Neto has been significantly more dangerous against left-handed pitching, posting an .890 OPS and 5 home runs in limited opportunities compared to a .741 OPS against righties. He faces MacKenzie Gore, a left-hander who allows a high hard-hit rate of 44.1% and possesses a 0.76 GO/AO ratio, indicating a fly-ball-heavy profile. In the climate-controlled environment of Globe Life Field, fly-ball pitchers who surrender hard contact are at higher risk for home runs. As the leadoff hitter, Neto will maximize his plate appearances, giving him the most chances to capitalize on Gore's tendency to keep the ball in the air. At +360, the market is pricing this at a 21.7% implied probability, which undervalues Neto's efficiency against southpaws.

THE LONG SHOT

MIKE TROUTHR OVER 0.5

MLBAngels· +360

Betting on Mike Trout to hit a home run is a wager on elite baseline talent, especially at +360 odds. Before his recent absence, Trout was homering at a rate of once every 15.6 at-bats, the most prolific pace in the Angels' lineup. While he is returning from a hamstring injury, reports indicate he completed a full pregame routine and ran the bases without issues, suggesting his power mechanics should be intact. He faces MacKenzie Gore, whose fly-ball profile (0.76 GO/AO) is a favorable matchup for Trout’s high-launch-angle swing. While Gore is statistically effective against right-handers by batting average (.211), he still allows a significant amount of hard contact (44.1%). Trout only needs one mistake from a fly-ball pitcher to clear this line, and batting second ensures he will see high-leverage opportunities early in the game.

GARY'S PICK

ADLEY RUTSCHMANTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBOrioles· +118

Adley Rutschman has been a model of consistency lately, recording hits in each of his last five games and clearing this 1.5 total bases mark in three of those five (including a 4 TB performance). Tonight, he benefits from a premier matchup against Colin Rea. While Rea is effective against righties, he has been pounded by left-handed hitters all season, surrendering a .310 average. As a switch-hitter batting from the left side, Rutschman is perfectly positioned to exploit Rea's high WHIP (1.43) and frequent traffic on the bases. Given that Rutschman is batting second in the order, he will have ample opportunities to see Rea multiple times. The weather at Camden Yards (83°F with wind blowing out to left field) further supports a total bases over for a hitter with Rutschman's gap-to-gap power.

GARY'S PICK

PETE CROW-ARMSTRONGH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBCubs· -144

Pete Crow-Armstrong is the engine of the Cubs' offense right now, batting .324 over his last 10 games and leading off for a team that is averaging 5.1 runs per game. PCA has cleared this 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs line in three of his last five games, including a massive 7-unit explosion in his most recent outing. The matchup against Dean Kremer is the primary driver here; while Kremer has a low ERA, he is currently surrendering home runs at an alarming rate (5 HR in 17 IP). PCA’s 19 home runs on the season and his elite speed (23 stolen bases) provide multiple ways to clear this line—whether through a long ball or by creating runs with his legs once he reaches base. With the wind blowing out at 6 mph, the conditions favor the Cubs' power-hitting leadoff man to generate multiple contributions to the box score.

GARY'S PICK

SPENCER TORKELSONTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBTigers· +123

Spencer Torkelson is positioned to exploit the most significant mismatch in this game: Jeffrey Springs' vulnerability to right-handed power. Springs has been dismantled by right-handers this season, surrendering 18 of his 24 home runs to them and allowing a massive .874 OPS. Springs' fly-ball profile (0.68 GO/AO) is exactly what Torkelson looks for to generate extra-base hits. Torkelson has shown signs of life recently with 2 home runs over his last 10 games, and with game-time temperatures in the low 80s, any ball he gets into the air against a pitcher with a 9.9% barrel rate has a high probability of finding a gap or the seats. A single double or home run clears this, and Springs' 1.38 WHIP ensures there will be traffic for Torkelson to see pitches to hit.

GARY'S PICK

MICHAEL HARRIS IITOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBBraves· -105

Michael Harris II enters this matchup against Jared Jones with a definitive tactical advantage. Jones has struggled significantly against left-handed hitters this season, surrendering a .299 batting average and a gaudy .932 OPS to that side of the plate. Harris, entrenched in the leadoff spot for Atlanta, is a high-volume left-handed bat who consistently creates extra-base opportunities; he has recorded 2 or more total bases in four of his last five games according to his recent splits. While the game logs indicate a recent hitless stretch, a matchup against a pitcher with Jones’ specific platoon weakness is the ideal spot for a correction. The 85-degree Pittsburgh air and wind blowing toward right field further boost the probability of Harris using his speed to turn singles into doubles or clearing the fence entirely.

GARY'S PICK

RYAN O'HEARNTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBPirates· +135

The matchup between Ryan O'Hearn and Grant Holmes is a statistical collision course. Holmes' 3.83 ERA is propped up by luck; his 4.62 xERA and 43.7% hard-hit rate allowed indicate he is giving up consistent loud contact. Specifically, Holmes has been vulnerable to left-handed power, giving up 9 home runs to LHB this season. O'Hearn is in the midst of a massive power surge, slashing 5 home runs in his last 10 games and clearing this 1.5 total base line in three of his last five outings. With the wind blowing out to right field and temperatures reaching 85 degrees, O'Hearn’s pull-heavy left-handed swing is perfectly situated to find the gaps or the seats. At +135, the price is not properly accounting for O'Hearn's current form against a pitcher due for significant regression.

GARY'S PICK

LUKE RALEYTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBMariners· +131

Tyler Phillips is a primary regression candidate tonight. While his surface ERA is 3.52, his 4.81 xERA and 5.06 ERA in night games suggest he is vulnerable. Phillips has struggled specifically against left-handed hitters, allowing an .812 OPS. Luke Raley is the ideal bat to exploit this, as all 14 of his home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching. Raley also has a limited but successful history against Phillips, going 2-for-2 with a home run in past meetings. In a matchup where the pitcher allows a high hard-hit rate (44.1%) and struggles with platoon disadvantages, Raley's power profile offers a high probability of clearing this line with a single extra-base hit or a multi-hit performance.

GARY'S PICK

OTTO LOPEZTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBMarlins· +111

Otto Lopez is currently one of the hottest hitters in baseball, maintaining a .343 season average and delivering three 3-hit games in his last five starts. While George Kirby is a respected starter, he has a notable split this season, allowing a .293 average to right-handed hitters compared to .266 against lefties. Lopez's high-contact approach is particularly well-suited for Kirby, who is an elite strike-thrower (only 24 walks in 104 innings). Because Kirby lives in the zone, Lopez will get ample opportunities to put the ball in play. Given Lopez's .350 batting average at loanDepot park and his recent form (7 total bases in two of his last three games), he is in a prime position to record multiple hits or an extra-base knock against a pitcher who righties have consistently tagged for hits.

GARY'S PICK

JAMES WOODWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBNationals· -194

The Gary Special tonight is a correlation play on James Wood’s elite plate discipline and the command struggles of Spencer Arrighetti. Arrighetti has been erratic recently, surrendering 11 walks in his last three starts, including a five-walk outing against Minnesota. Wood is arguably the most disciplined young hitter in the league right now, drawing 13 walks in his last 10 games and recording at least one walk in seven of those contests. By taking both the Hits+Runs+RBIs and the Walks for Wood, we are capturing his entire offensive ceiling; his ability to work deep counts and take his base directly fuels his runs-scored potential, while his power ensures he remains a threat to drive himself in. In a leadoff role, he should see five plate appearances, giving him ample opportunity to exploit Arrighetti’s tendency to miss the zone.

GARY'S PICK

CHRISTIAN WALKERTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBAstros· +130

While Foster Griffin has been statistically dominant lately, his season-long splits reveal a clear vulnerability to right-handed power. He has surrendered 13 home runs and a .234 batting average to righties compared to just four home runs and a .153 average against lefties. Christian Walker is perfectly positioned to exploit this as a premier right-handed slugger who is coming off a massive 4-for-5 performance yesterday. Walker’s underlying form is elite, hitting .314 over his last 10 games, and his historical comfort at Nationals Park (1.171 career OPS in limited samples) suggests he tracks the ball well in this environment. Griffin’s 10.5% barrel rate allowed indicates that when hitters make contact, it is often high-quality, and at +130, we are getting excellent value on a red-hot veteran facing a pitcher whose expected metrics (4.02 xERA) hint at looming regression.

GARY'S PICK

BRYCE HARPERTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBPhillies· +130

Bryce Harper batting leadoff in Great American Ball Park is a textbook environment for an over on total bases. The matchup against Chase Burns is particularly intriguing; while Burns is a high-strikeout ace (116 K in 97.2 IP), the data shows he is specifically vulnerable to left-handed power. 83% of the home runs Burns has allowed this season (10 of 12) have come against lefties, and his OPS against left-handers (.700) is significantly higher than against right-handers (.522). Harper showed signs of emerging from a recent slump with a home run yesterday and now moves to the top of the order where he is guaranteed maximum volume in a 'bandbox' park. The 87-degree humidity in Cincinnati further favors the carry of fly balls, making a single extra-base hit or two singles highly probable for an elite hitter in this specific platoon matchup. The risk is Burns' 98 mph velocity simply overpowering the top of the order, but the split data suggests Harper has the definitive edge if he makes contact.

GARY'S PICK

ELLY DE LA CRUZH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBReds· -140

Elly De La Cruz is the primary engine of the Cincinnati offense and faces a favorable environment tonight as the Phillies deploy a 'bullpen game.' The expected bulk reliever, Alan Rangel, possesses a stark platoon disadvantage against left-handed and switch-hitters, allowing a .831 OPS. De La Cruz, batting leadoff, is positioned to exploit this across multiple at-bats. His elite speed (13 SB) means that even a simple walk or single frequently translates into a run scored when followed by the Reds' high-RBI middle of the order (Stewart and Suarez). De La Cruz has been consistent in getting on base, recording hits in 4 of his last 5 games. In a high-scoring park environment, a player with his ability to generate hits, runs, and stolen bases has multiple paths to clearing a 1.5 HRR line. The risk lies in the Reds' collective offensive struggles (4.1 R/G), but facing a non-traditional pitching rotation provides a higher floor for the team's leadoff catalyst.

GARY'S PICK

JUAN SOTOTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBMets· -103

Juan Soto finds himself in an elite matchup tonight against Steven Cruz, a right-hander whose statistical profile is defined by an inability to retire left-handed hitters without damage. Cruz has surrendered seven home runs in only 67 at-bats to lefties this season, contributing to a massive .905 OPS allowed in the split. Soto is arguably the most disciplined and dangerous left-handed bat in the league, sporting a 1.059 OPS against right-handed pitching. With the weather report indicating clear skies and an 11 mph wind blowing out toward left field, the environment at Citi Field is primed for Soto to drive the ball for extra bases. Even if Cruz attempts to pitch around him, his propensity for making mistakes in the zone against lefties makes the over on 1.5 total bases highly probable at this price.

GARY'S PICK

TYLER TOLBERTTOTAL BASES OVER 0.5

MLBRoyals· -125

Tyler Tolbert is currently in the midst of a historic hot streak, having tied an MLB record with hits in 12 consecutive plate appearances. Over his last two games, he is a staggering 10-for-11 with two home runs, showing zero signs of cooling off. He faces Christian Scott, whose 3.49 ERA is heavily supported by luck, as evidenced by his 4.78 xERA and high fly-ball lean (0.57 GO/AO). Scott is more vulnerable to right-handed hitters (.258 AVG allowed) than lefties, which plays directly into Tolbert's hands. While Tolbert bats ninth in the order, the Royals' offense has exploded for 31 runs over the last two games, ensuring the bottom of the lineup is seeing high plate-appearance volume. In a game with a high 9.5 total and wind blowing out to his pull side, Tolbert needs only one single to clear this line.

GARY'S PICK

WILLSON CONTRERASTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBRed Sox· +120

Willson Contreras is currently the most locked-in hitter in the Red Sox lineup, having recorded a hit in nine of his last ten games and multiple bases in five straight. He is consistently driving the ball for extra bases, as evidenced by his 20th home run of the season on this current road trip. He draws a favorable matchup against Davis Martin, a pitcher whose surface-level ERA (3.08) masks significant underlying vulnerabilities, including a high 44.8% hard-hit rate and an expected ERA (xERA) of 4.11. In the 88-degree heat and high humidity of Chicago, the ball should carry well, further aiding a hitter who is already barreling the ball at an elite rate. With Martin's strikeout numbers dipping (0 and 3 K's in two of his last five starts), Contreras should see plenty of hittable pitches in the heart of the order.

GARY'S PICK

CHASE DELAUTERTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBGuardians· +112

DeLauter has been a contact machine for the Guardians, entering this game with a blistering .375 average (15-for-40) over his last 10 contests. While he faces a left-handed starter in Connor Prielipp, the traditional platoon disadvantage is negated by Prielipp's specific struggles this season; despite being a southpaw, Prielipp is surrendering a .317 average and a .808 OPS to left-handed hitters. DeLauter’s elite contact skills match up well against Prielipp’s fly-ball-heavy approach (indicated by his 0.86 GO/AO). Batting second in the order guarantees DeLauter will see Prielipp at least two or three times, and with the warm, humid air in Minneapolis favoring ball carry, any well-struck ball from the red-hot DeLauter has a high probability of resulting in extra bases. The primary risk is Prielipp's high strikeout ability (9.5 K/9), but DeLauter's current rhythm suggests he is seeing the ball well enough to exploit the matchup.

GARY'S PICK

KODY CLEMENSTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBTwins· +120

Clemens is arguably the hottest hitter in the Twins' lineup right now, having launched 5 home runs with 14 RBIs over his last 10 games while maintaining a .293 average. The Twins have recognized this surge by moving him up to the #3 spot in the batting order, ensuring he gets maximum plate appearances tonight. He faces Slade Cecconi, a right-hander with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP who allows a .269 average and .740 OPS to left-handed hitters. The environmental factors at Target Field are perfectly aligned for a power-hitting lefty like Clemens: the temperature is expected to be in the low 80s with high humidity (76%), and a 7 mph wind will be blowing directly out toward right field. Given his recent propensity for extra-base hits (including an RBI triple in his last outing), Clemens is in a prime position to clear this line with a single swing or multiple hits. The risk here is Cecconi's 1.11 GO/AO rate, which suggests he can occasionally induce ground balls to neutralize lift, but Clemens' current form is too dominant to ignore.

GARY'S PICK

JORDAN WALKERTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +125

Jordan Walker is the premier lefty-specialist in the Cardinals' lineup, and tonight's matchup against Kyle Harrison is a statistical dream for him. Walker carries a massive .979 OPS against southpaws this season and is in peak form, having slashed .313 with 3 home runs over his last 10 games. While Harrison's overall numbers are strong, he is a significantly different pitcher outside of Milwaukee, posting a road ERA (4.68) nearly three times higher than his home mark. Harrison is also a fly-ball-heavy pitcher (0.67 GO/AO) pitching in 89-degree heat with the wind blowing out toward left field. This environment heavily favors a hitter like Walker, who needs just one extra-base hit or two singles to clear this line. Given his platoon dominance and Harrison's road vulnerability, Walker is positioned to lead the Cardinals' offense tonight.

GARY'S PICK

JAKE BAUERSTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +130

This pick is a direct attack on Michael McGreevy's unsustainable statistical profile. McGreevy’s 3.12 ERA is masked by a glaring 5.60 xERA and a high 40.3% Hard-Hit rate allowed, indicating he is due for significant regression. He is a contact-oriented pitcher (5.7 K/9) who struggles particularly against left-handed bats, allowing a .703 OPS to that side. Jake Bauers is the perfect candidate to trigger that regression; he has produced 13 of his 16 home runs against righties this year while maintaining a stout .887 OPS. Bauers also has a history of success at Busch Stadium, carrying a 1.198 OPS in limited action there. With the ball expected to carry in the humid St. Louis air, Bauers’ ability to lift the ball against a pitcher who doesn't miss bats creates a high floor for extra-base production.

GARY'S PICK

YANDY DIAZTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBRays· +120

Yandy Diaz is a statistical outlier at Tropicana Field, posting a massive .371 batting average in home games this season. Tonight he draws a matchup against Gerrit Cole that is much more favorable than the name value suggests; in 2026, Cole has struggled significantly to put away right-handed hitters, allowing them to bat .296 against him. Diaz sits at the top of the Rays lineup, ensuring he receives the maximum volume of plate appearances to find his two bases. Given his .323 average against righties this year, he does not need a home run to clear this line—two singles or a well-placed double at the Trop gets us there. While Cole's 3.34 xERA indicates he is pitching better than his surface stats, his specific vulnerability to right-handed contact hitters makes Diaz the primary beneficiary tonight. The risk for this play is Cole's high-whiff slider (29.8%) neutralizing Diaz's contact-first approach. If Cole can regain his elite form and keep the ball away from the middle of the plate, Diaz could easily be limited to a single hit or a 1-for-4 night that falls short of the two-base requirement.

THE LONG SHOT

SAMUEL BASALLOHR OVER 0.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· +390

Samuel Basallo is in a premier 'buy' spot tonight against Colin Rea. Rea has been a significantly worse pitcher away from Chicago this season, posting a 6.60 road ERA compared to a 2.72 mark at home. The most exploitable part of Rea's profile is his massive platoon split: he is surrendering a .310 average and an .835 OPS to left-handed hitters. Basallo, the Orioles' rising power threat with 14 homers, is in excellent form with two home runs in his last four starts. The game environment at Camden Yards—83 degrees with a 6 mph wind blowing out to left field—is a perfect setup for a left-handed power hitter to exploit a pitcher who historically struggles with both the venue and the platoon.

THE LONG SHOT

KYLE SCHWARBERHR OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +245

Kyle Schwarber is the most prolific home run hitter in this matchup, entering with 31 homers and a blistering rate of one long ball every 10.6 at-bats. Tonight he faces Chase Burns, who despite an elite ERA, is a fly-ball pitcher (0.70 GO/AO) who has struggled with home run suppression against left-handed hitters. Burns has surrendered 10 of his 12 home runs this season specifically to lefties. Great American Ball Park is a renowned hitter's haven with a 1.1 park factor, and the 87°F heat provides ideal conditions for the ball to carry. Schwarber bats second, ensuring maximum plate appearances to exploit this specific fly-ball matchup in a small park.

THE LONG SHOT

JUAN SOTOHR OVER 0.5

MLBMets· +310

Juan Soto is in an elite smash spot tonight at Citi Field. He faces Steven Cruz, a right-handed pitcher whose statistical profile against left-handed hitters is catastrophic. Cruz has allowed 7 home runs in just 67 at-bats to lefties this season—an astronomical rate that equates to one home run for every 9.6 at-bats. Soto, arguably the premier left-handed bat in the game, enters this matchup in peak form, having homered in three of his last five games. The environmental factors further support the over: the game total is set high at 9.5, and there is a steady 11 mph wind blowing out toward left field, which plays perfectly into Soto's power profile. With the Royals' bullpen heavily taxed after yesterday's 16-12 marathon, Soto will likely see at least 4-5 plate appearances against a mix of a vulnerable starter and fatigued relievers.

THE LONG SHOT

IAN HAPPHR OVER 0.5

MLBChicago Cubs· +400

While Dean Kremer has been pitching well overall, he has shown a specific vulnerability to giving up the long ball to left-handed hitters, surrendering 4 home runs in just 50 at-bats to the split this season. Ian Happ, a switch-hitter who will bat from the left side tonight, has the power profile to exploit this. Happ has already taken Kremer deep once in their limited head-to-head history, and his 17 home runs lead the Cubs' middle order. With the wind blowing out toward the left-field corner at 6 mph, Happ is one swing away from clearing this +400 price, which significantly undervalues his power matchup against a pitcher with a 11.9% barrel rate allowed.

THE LONG SHOT

ELLY DE LA CRUZHR OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +370

Elly De La Cruz has a clear path to production tonight against Phillies starter/opener Alan Rangel. Rangel has been vulnerable to left-handed hitters, allowing a .289 batting average and a high .831 OPS to the left side. De La Cruz, batting leadoff, will get the first crack at Rangel in a park that significantly inflates home run production (1.1 factor). While Elly hasn't homered in his last five games, his elite exit velocity makes him a threat to clear any fence at Great American Ball Park, especially in the 87°F Cincinnati heat. At +370, the market is underestimating his ability to catch a mistake from a replacement-level starter with poor platoon splits.

THE LONG SHOT

MIGUEL VARGASHR OVER 0.5

MLBWhite Sox· +330

Miguel Vargas is the prototypical 'lefty-killer' for the White Sox, posting an elite 1.044 OPS and hitting a home run every 11.4 at-bats against southpaws this season. He faces Jake Bennett, a left-hander whose 3.10 ERA masks a susceptibility to right-handed power; all three home runs Bennett has surrendered in his 40.2 innings of work have come against right-handed bats. Batting leadoff, Vargas is guaranteed maximum plate appearances in a game with a high temperature (88F) and wind blowing out toward the power alleys. His recent form includes two multi-hit games in his last four starts, and his track record against lefties makes this +330 price point a significant value given the atmospheric conditions in Chicago.

THE LONG SHOT

BOBBY WITT JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBRoyals· +390

Bobby Witt Jr. is the clear engine of the Royals' offense and possesses the raw power to exploit a pitcher whose surface-level stats mask underlying volatility. Mets starter Christian Scott carries a 3.49 ERA, but his expected ERA (xERA) of 4.78 is a flashing red light for regression. Witt is precisely the type of elite contact-and-power threat who punishes pitchers when their luck turns. While Scott is a high-strikeout pitcher, Witt has shown the ability to break out in bunches, evidenced by his recent 2-home run performance against Philadelphia. The Mets' bullpen is 'shorthanded' and 'out of choices' according to today's reports, meaning Witt should see favorable matchups in the later innings against taxed middle-relief arms if Scott is chased early. In a high-scoring series environment where the humidity and wind are favoring the offense, Witt at +390 offers strong value for a player with his ceiling.

THE LONG SHOT

WILLSON CONTRERASHR OVER 0.5

MLBRed Sox· +370

Willson Contreras is currently the hottest hitter in the Boston lineup, having launched four home runs in his last 10 games. He faces White Sox starter Davis Martin, who is a primary candidate for regression; Martin's 3.08 ERA is significantly outperformed by his 4.11 expected ERA (xERA), suggesting he has been dodging damage that his contact quality allowed should have produced. Contreras matches up well here, as 70% of his power production this season (14 of 20 HRs) has come against right-handed pitching. With the wind blowing out at Rate Field and the humidity high, the cleanup hitter is in an ideal spot to capitalize on Martin's inevitable ERA correction. At +370, we are betting on a player in peak power form to maintain his recent 1-in-2.5 game home run pace in a hitter-friendly environment.

GARY'S PICK

KETEL MARTETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +118

We are riding the hottest hand in the National League. Ketel Marte enters tonight on a four-game home run streak, and his total base counts in those games (4, 4, 4, 5) make a 1.5 line look very attractive at plus money. He is batting .316 over his last 10 games and is currently seeing the ball as well as anyone in the sport. He faces Michael King, whose underlying metrics (4.56 xERA) suggest he’s due to give up significantly more hard contact than his surface stats indicate. As a switch-hitter, Marte is immune to late-game matchup hunting from the Padres' bullpen, and given his current power surge, he only needs one mistake from a pitcher who the math says is over-performing. My read is that Marte stays hot against a pitcher primed for regression.

GARY'S PICK

SHOHEI OHTANITOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBDodgers· -136

Shohei Ohtani is in a premium spot to find extra bases tonight against Gabriel Hughes, a rookie right-hander making his first career MLB start. Hughes is a heavy fastball reliant pitcher (66.0% usage) whose average velocity of 93.6 mph is a speed Ohtani typically exploits for extra-base power. Ohtani has been in strong form, hitting .293 with 3 home runs over his last 10 games, including two multi-hit performances in his last five. The environmental conditions at Dodger Stadium provide a significant boost tonight, with clear skies and an 8 mph wind blowing directly out to right field—Ohtani's primary power alley as a left-handed pull hitter. Facing a debutant likely to experience early nerves and command issues, Ohtani should see multiple opportunities to drive a ball into the gap or over the wall to clear this total bases line.

GARY'S PICK

COLE CARRIGGH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBRockies· +100

Cole Carrigg is currently the most productive bat in the Rockies' lineup, entering this matchup on a blistering run where he has hit .424 (14-for-33) over his last 10 games. His ability to impact the Hits + Runs + RBIs market is driven by his high-volume production; he has cleared this 1.5 HRR line in four of his last five starts, averaging 5.2 combined stats per game in that stretch. Tonight he faces Roki Sasaki, who has struggled with consistency and contact quality in 2026. Sasaki carries a 5.40 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP, largely due to allowing a 45.6% hard-hit rate and a 12.9% barrel rate. Carrigg’s elite recent contact quality and his position batting third in a Rockies lineup that has averaged 6.9 runs per game over their last 10 outings provide both the floor and the ceiling necessary to clear this line.

Research

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BULLPENKC @ NYM
New York Mets pen: 16.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
New York Mets's bullpen has thrown 16.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 5 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
PLATOON EDGENYY @ TB
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Paul Goldschmidt's vs. Left line (1.115 OPS, 95 AB) sits well above his .591 mark the other way (131 AB). Tonight's starter Shane McClanahan throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TEAM RECORDMIL @ STL
Cardinals 1-7 in Michael McGreevy's last 8 starts
Cardinals are 1-7 in Michael McGreevy's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 4 in a row. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDHOU @ WSH
Nationals 7-1 in Foster Griffin's last 8 starts
Nationals are 7-1 in Foster Griffin's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 4 in a row. He starts tonight.
HEAT CHECKHOU @ WSH
Luis Garcia Jr.: 1.524 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 45 PA: a 1.524 OPS versus .874 for the season, 0.65 above his norm. He has 19 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 3-for-4, 6 TB, 1 BB
HEAD-TO-HEADMIL @ STL
Brewers are 7-1 vs Cardinals this season
Brewers lead the season series 7-1 over Cardinals. MIL won the last meeting 10-2.
TEAM RECORDPHI @ CIN
Reds 7-1 in Chase Burns's last 8 starts
Reds are 7-1 in Chase Burns's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 5 in a row. He starts tonight.
PLATOON EDGETOR @ SF
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 2nd against Logan Webb (RHP)
Over 155 AB vs. Right, Nathan Lukes owns a .817 OPS versus .297 in 31 AB the other way. He sees RHP Logan Webb tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEPHI @ CIN
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Bryce Harper's vs. Right line (1.034 OPS, 196 AB) sits well above his .653 mark the other way (127 AB). Tonight's starter Chase Burns throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
HEAT CHECKCHC @ BAL
Dansby Swanson: 1.179 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 54 PA: a 1.179 OPS versus .719 for the season, 0.46 above his norm. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HR THREATCubs @ Orioles
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong is in the midst of a breakout 19-home run campaign and draws a matchup against Dean Kremer, whose underlying metrics suggest extreme vulnerability to the long ball. Kremer has surrendered five home runs in just 17.0 innings this season, resulting in a staggering 2.65 HR/9 rate.
P 2 HR — 2-for-4, 8 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGESEA @ MIA
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 1st against George Kirby (RHP)
Over 225 AB vs. Right, Liam Hicks owns a .908 OPS versus .554 in 56 AB the other way. He sees RHP George Kirby tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HR THREATPhillies @ Reds
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber is the most prolific home run hitter in this matchup, entering with 31 homers and a blistering rate of one long ball every 10.6 at-bats. Tonight he faces Chase Burns, who despite an elite ERA, is a fly-ball pitcher (0.70 GO/AO) who has struggled with home run suppression against left-handed hitters.
P 1 HR — 1-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
HR THREATRoyals @ Mets
Juan Soto
Juan Soto is in an elite smash spot tonight at Citi Field. He faces Steven Cruz, a right-handed pitcher whose statistical profile against left-handed hitters is catastrophic.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
COOLING OFFARI @ SD
Corbin Carroll: .474 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael King
Corbin Carroll's .474 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .855 season mark, down 0.381. Tonight he draws RHP Michael King — his weaker side: a .764 OPS vs RHP across 221 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEBOS @ CHW
Randal Grichuk (bats R) gets a LHP from the 2nd spot
Randal Grichuk's vs. Left line (.974 OPS, 79 AB) sits well above his .600 mark the other way (48 AB). Tonight's starter Jake Bennett throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COOLING OFFOAK @ DET
Nick Kurtz: .442 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Troy Melton
Nick Kurtz's .442 OPS over the last 15 days (50 PA) trails his .915 season mark, down 0.473. Tonight he draws RHP Troy Melton — his stronger side: a .978 OPS vs RHP across 208 AB.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
COOLING OFFCLE @ MIN
Travis Bazzana: .365 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Connor Prielipp
Travis Bazzana's .365 OPS over the last 15 days (50 PA) trails his .738 season mark, down 0.373. Tonight he draws LHP Connor Prielipp — his weaker side: a .506 OPS vs LHP across 81 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
PLATOON EDGECOL @ LAD
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Mickey Moniak's vs. Right line (1.004 OPS, 158 AB) sits well above his .635 mark the other way (37 AB). Tonight's starter Roki Sasaki throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
BULLPENMIL @ STL
St. Louis Cardinals pen: 16.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
St. Louis Cardinals's bullpen has thrown 16.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
HEAD-TO-HEADATL @ PIT
Braves are 6-2 vs Pirates this season
Braves lead the season series 6-2 over Pirates. PIT took the last meeting 12-4 — a revenge spot.
COOLING OFFTOR @ SF
Casey Schmitt: .464 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Dylan Cease
Casey Schmitt's .464 OPS over the last 15 days (53 PA) trails his .792 season mark, down 0.328. Tonight he draws RHP Dylan Cease — his weaker side: a .778 OPS vs RHP across 236 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HR THREATCubs @ Orioles
Samuel Basallo
The statistical anchor for this pick is Colin Rea's profound struggle against left-handed hitting. Rea has been tagged for a .310 batting average and five home runs in 203 at-bats against lefties this season.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
TEAM RECORDMIL @ STL
Brewers 6-2 in Kyle Harrison's last 8 starts
Brewers are 6-2 in Kyle Harrison's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDKC @ NYM
Mets 6-2 in Christian Scott's last 8 starts
Mets are 6-2 in Christian Scott's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDCHC @ BAL
Cubs 2-6 in Colin Rea's last 8 starts
Cubs are 2-6 in Colin Rea's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
STARTER FORMHOU @ WSH
Spencer Arrighetti: 9.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 9.00 ERA over his last 15 innings with a 1.27 WHIP (1.23 season) — the 3.81 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 4 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
HEAT CHECKNYY @ TB
Junior Caminero: 1.286 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.286 OPS spans the last 15 days (55 PA) against a .918 season baseline, a 0.368 swing. He has 26 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGEOAK @ DET
Matt Vierling (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Matt Vierling's vs. Left line (.772 OPS, 83 AB) sits well above his .490 mark the other way (139 AB). Tonight's starter Jeffrey Springs throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
COOLING OFFNYY @ TB
Cody Bellinger: .328 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Shane McClanahan
Cody Bellinger's .328 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .762 season mark, down 0.434. Tonight he draws LHP Shane McClanahan — his stronger side: a .776 OPS vs LHP across 114 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HR THREATAstros @ Nationals
James Wood
James Wood is currently the hottest hitter in the Nationals lineup, having mashed three home runs over his last five games and recording 13 hits in his last 10. Tonight he faces Spencer Arrighetti, a right-hander who has struggled with power suppression against left-handed hitters.
P 0 HR — 0-for-2, 0 TB, 3 BB
PLATOON EDGECHC @ BAL
Samuel Basallo (bats L) draws Colin Rea (RHP), batting 5th
Samuel Basallo carries a .878 OPS vs. Right (191 AB) against .496 the other way (63 AB), and faces RHP Colin Rea from the 5th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGEBOS @ CHW
Miguel Vargas (bats R) draws Jake Bennett (LHP), batting 1st
Miguel Vargas carries a 1.044 OPS vs. Left (91 AB) against .774 the other way (232 AB), and faces LHP Jake Bennett from the 1st spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
SITUATIONALKC @ NYM
NYM's bullpen has covered 16.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 16.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Kodai Senga (3) and Huascar Brazoban (2.3). KC's pen has thrown 12.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 2-6
SITUATIONALMIL @ STL
16.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for STL
Relievers have absorbed 16.3 innings over the last 3 games (Bruce Zimmermann (5) and Justin Bruihl (3.3) the heaviest). MIL's pen has thrown 6.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 1-5
PLATOON EDGETOR @ SF
Rafael Devers (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Rafael Devers's vs. Right line (.906 OPS, 229 AB) sits well above his .560 mark the other way (120 AB). Tonight's starter Dylan Cease throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFMIL @ STL
Alec Burleson: .501 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Kyle Harrison
Alec Burleson's .501 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .800 season mark, down 0.299. Tonight he draws LHP Kyle Harrison — his weaker side: a .436 OPS vs LHP across 105 AB.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB
STREAKALG @ ARG
Argentina won the 2022 World Cup
Defending champions from 2022 — 6 wins in their last 8 World Cup matches (W-W-W-W-W-W-L-L).
COOLING OFFATL @ PIT
Drake Baldwin: .485 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jared Jones
Drake Baldwin's .485 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .788 season mark, down 0.303. Tonight he draws RHP Jared Jones — his weaker side: a .759 OPS vs RHP across 155 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADCOL @ LAD
Dodgers are 7-4 vs Rockies this season
Dodgers lead the season series 7-4 over Rockies. COL took the last meeting 4-3 — a revenge spot.
HR THREATRed Sox @ White Sox
Willson Contreras
Willson Contreras is currently the hottest hitter in the Red Sox lineup, slashing .371 over his last 10 games with four home runs. He enters tonight having recorded multiple total bases in four of his last five starts, showing elite contact quality.
P 0 HR — 0-for-2, 0 TB
HR THREATGuardians @ Twins
Kody Clemens
Kody Clemens is in the midst of a historic power surge, having homered in three straight games and five of his last ten appearances. He has already established a career-high with 16 home runs this season, demonstrating a high home-run-to-at-bat ratio.
P 0 HR — 3-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
SITUATIONALBOS @ CHW
CHW's bullpen has covered 15.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 15.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Erick Fedde (5.3) and Brandon Eisert (3.7). BOS's pen has thrown 12.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 5-0
HEAT CHECKTOR @ SF
Rafael Devers: 1.094 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 51 PA: a 1.094 OPS versus .787 for the season, 0.307 above his norm. He has 18 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFTOR @ SF
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: .428 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Logan Webb
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s .428 OPS over the last 15 days (51 PA) trails his .689 season mark, down 0.261. Tonight he draws RHP Logan Webb — his weaker side: a .667 OPS vs RHP across 254 AB.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
HEAT CHECKATL @ PIT
Ryan O'Hearn: 1.121 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.121 OPS spans the last 15 days (57 PA) against a .851 season baseline, a 0.27 swing. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAT CHECKCOL @ LAD
Kyle Karros: 1.171 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (40 PA) he is at a 1.171 OPS, up 0.388 on his .783 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB
HR THREATRed Sox @ White Sox
Miguel Vargas
Miguel Vargas is the primary power source for the White Sox and possesses extreme platoon splits that favor him tonight against rookie southpaw Jake Bennett. Vargas has posted a massive 1.044 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, clubbing eight home runs in significantly fewer opportunities than he's had against righties.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
XG REGRESSIONSWE @ NED
Netherlands are finishing above their chances
Netherlands are scoring 2.8/match on 1.3 xG — 1.5 goals/match above expected across 4 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
STARTER FORMOAK @ DET
Jeffrey Springs: 9.42 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 9.42 ERA over his last 14.3 innings with a 1.74 WHIP (1.38 season) — the 5.79 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
XG REGRESSIONJPN @ NED
Netherlands are finishing above their chances
Netherlands are scoring 2.8/match on 1.3 xG — 1.5 goals/match above expected across 4 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
TOURNAMENTTO LIFT THE CUP
France head the title market at +180
France are the market's outright World Cup favourite at +180. Spain (+370) and Argentina (+390) are the next shortest.
XG REGRESSIONMAR @ NED
Netherlands are finishing above their chances
Netherlands are scoring 2.8/match on 1.3 xG — 1.5 goals/match above expected across 4 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
XG REGRESSIONNED @ TUN
Netherlands are finishing above their chances
Netherlands are scoring 2.8/match on 1.3 xG — 1.5 goals/match above expected across 4 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
SITUATIONALARI @ SD
15 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
Relievers have absorbed 15 innings over the last 3 games (Griffin Canning (4) and Alek Jacob (3) the heaviest). ARI's pen has thrown 11 over the same span.
P flagged side won 4-10
HEAT CHECKSEA @ MIA
Heriberto Hernandez: 1.201 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.201 OPS spans the last 15 days (36 PA) against a .789 season baseline, a 0.412 swing. He has 12 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKSEA @ MIA
Otto Lopez: 1.163 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (54 PA) he is at a 1.163 OPS, up 0.274 on his .889 season mark. He has 9 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
HEAT CHECKMIL @ STL
Garrett Mitchell: 1.188 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (41 PA) he is at a 1.188 OPS, up 0.363 on his .825 season mark. He has 8 home runs on the season.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
COOLING OFFNYY @ TB
Paul Goldschmidt: .445 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Shane McClanahan
Paul Goldschmidt's .445 OPS over the last 15 days (42 PA) trails his .815 season mark, down 0.37. Tonight he draws LHP Shane McClanahan — his stronger side: a 1.115 OPS vs LHP across 95 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TOMORROWOAK @ DET
Jack Perkins: 6.75 ERA vs 4.08 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs DET. A 6.75 ERA against a 4.08 expected ERA (2.67 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .264 vs .239 expected.
HEAT CHECKTOR @ SF
Heliot Ramos: 1.174 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.174 OPS spans the last 15 days (36 PA) against a .810 season baseline, a 0.364 swing. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
SITUATIONALATL @ PIT
14.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for ATL
Relievers have absorbed 14.3 innings over the last 3 games (Connor Thomas (3.7) and Carlos Carrasco (2) the heaviest). PIT's pen has thrown 11.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 3-0
SITUATIONALOAK @ DET
14.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for OAK
Relievers have absorbed 14.3 innings over the last 3 games (Kade Morris (3) and Jacob Lopez (3) the heaviest). DET's pen has thrown 9.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 1-6
REGRESSIONMIL @ STL
Michael McGreevy: 3.12 ERA vs 5.59 xERA
Michael McGreevy carries a 3.12 ERA against a 5.59 expected ERA (2.48 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .237 off him vs a .292 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
XG RECAPNOR @ BRA
Brazil out-created the field but didn't win
Brazil won the xG battle 2.8–0.8 yet lost to Norway (1–2). The underlying numbers favoured them — a side the result flattered to deceive.
BULLPENBOS @ CHW
Chicago White Sox pen: 15.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Chicago White Sox's bullpen has thrown 15.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 2 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
STARTER FORMCOL @ LAD
Roki Sasaki: 8.53 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (12.7 IP) he has been tagged for 12 earned runs — a 8.53 ERA with a 1.74 WHIP (1.40 season) against a 5.40 season mark.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
BULLPENLAA @ TEX
Texas Rangers pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Texas Rangers's bullpen has thrown 12.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
COOLING OFFCHC @ BAL
Gunnar Henderson: .479 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Colin Rea
Gunnar Henderson's .479 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .699 season mark, down 0.22. Tonight he draws RHP Colin Rea — his weaker side: a .695 OPS vs RHP across 266 AB.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
SITUATIONALALG @ SUI
Algeria arrive on 5 days' rest; Switzerland have had 8
Algeria come into the fixture on 5 days' rest while Switzerland have had 8 days' — a 3-day recovery gap in the July 3 meeting.
SITUATIONALLAA @ TEX
LAA's pen has logged 14 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 14 innings out of the pen — Jose Fermin (3) and Mitch Farris (3) carried the load. TEX's pen has thrown 12.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 13-1
BALLPARKATL @ PIT
Jared Jones owns a 6.92 ERA at PNC Park — 3.94 everywhere else
Across 3 games (13 IP) at PNC Park, Jared Jones has a 6.92 ERA against 3.94 at his other parks (16 IP). Hitters bat .269 off him here.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
BULLPENKC @ NYM
Kansas City Royals pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Kansas City Royals's bullpen has thrown 12.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
STARTER FORMCHC @ BAL
Colin Rea: 1.76 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 15.3 innings, 3 earned runs, 12 Ks. That 1.76 ERA sits 2.97 runs under his 4.74 season number.
P 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
ADVANCEMENTPAR @ USA
USA and Paraguay both set to advance from Group D
The market has USA all but through to reach the last 16 at -10000 (1st, 6 pts). Paraguay are -800 (3rd, 4 pts) to join them.
ADVANCEMENTURU @ KSA
Uruguay and Saudi Arabia scrap to advance from Group H
The market has Uruguay roughly even money to reach the last 16 at +120 (3rd, 2 pts). Saudi Arabia are +170 (4th, 2 pts) to join them.
ADVANCEMENTRSA @ CZE
Czechia and South Africa scrap to advance from Group A
The market has Czechia up against it to reach the last 16 at +225 (4th, 1 pt). South Africa are +450 (2nd, 4 pts) to join them.
ADVANCEMENTBIH @ SUI
Switzerland and Bosnia & Herzegovina both set to advance from Group B
The market has Switzerland all but through to reach the last 16 at -750 (1st, 7 pts). Bosnia & Herzegovina are -250 (3rd, 4 pts) to join them.
ADVANCEMENTAUS @ USA
USA and Australia both set to advance from Group D
The market has USA all but through to reach the last 16 at -10000 (1st, 6 pts). Australia are -1400 (2nd, 4 pts) to join them.
ADVANCEMENTAUS @ PAR
Australia and Paraguay both set to advance from Group D
The market has Australia all but through to reach the last 16 at -1400 (2nd, 4 pts). Paraguay are -800 (3rd, 4 pts) to join them.
ADVANCEMENTFRA @ NOR
Norway and France both set to advance from Group I
The market has Norway all but through to reach the last 16 at -10000 (2nd, 6 pts). France are -5000 (1st, 9 pts) to join them.
XG REGRESSIONUSA @ TUR
Türkiye have created more than they've scored
Türkiye are scoring 1.0/match on 2.0 xG — 1.0 goals/match below expected across 3 matches. The chances are there; they're due for the finishing to catch up.
XG REGRESSIONTUR @ AUS
Türkiye have created more than they've scored
Türkiye are scoring 1.0/match on 2.0 xG — 1.0 goals/match below expected across 3 matches. The chances are there; they're due for the finishing to catch up.
XG REGRESSIONPAR @ TUR
Türkiye have created more than they've scored
Türkiye are scoring 1.0/match on 2.0 xG — 1.0 goals/match below expected across 3 matches. The chances are there; they're due for the finishing to catch up.
XG REGRESSIONECU @ CIV
Ecuador have created more than they've scored
Ecuador are scoring 0.5/match on 1.5 xG — 1.0 goals/match below expected across 4 matches. The chances are there; they're due for the finishing to catch up.
XG REGRESSIONJPN @ TUN
Japan are finishing above their chances
Japan are scoring 2.0/match on 1.0 xG — 1.0 goals/match above expected across 4 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
XG REGRESSIONGER @ ECU
Ecuador have created more than they've scored
Ecuador are scoring 0.5/match on 1.5 xG — 1.0 goals/match below expected across 4 matches. The chances are there; they're due for the finishing to catch up.
XG REGRESSIONSWE @ JPN
Japan are finishing above their chances
Japan are scoring 2.0/match on 1.0 xG — 1.0 goals/match above expected across 4 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
BALLPARKENG @ NOR
Norway vs England: 93°F heat at Hard Rock Stadium
It reads 93°F at kickoff — serious heat that tests conditioning and tends to drag the second-half tempo. Conditions at Hard Rock Stadium: 93°F, 13 mph wind, 12% rain.
REGRESSIONCOL @ LAD
Cole Carrigg: .318 AVG vs .259 xBA
Cole Carrigg is hitting .318 against a .259 expected average (xBA) over 101 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .414 against a .344 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
STARTER FORMKC @ NYM
Christian Scott: 6.23 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 6.23 ERA over his last 13 innings with a 1.46 WHIP (1.35 season) — the 3.49 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
STARTER FORMNYY @ TB
Gerrit Cole: 6.75 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 6.75 ERA over his last 14.7 innings with a 1.57 WHIP (1.20 season) — the 4.01 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
TOURNAMENTGROUP B
Switzerland are the shortest group-winner chalk on the board
Switzerland are -100000 to win Group B — the shortest group-winner price of the tournament. The next side in Group B, Canada, is out at +135.
TOURNAMENTPATH TO THE FINAL
Argentina are the market's pick to reach the final from the other half
Behind the outright favourite, Argentina carry the shortest price to reach the final at +120 — the side the market most expects to come through the other half of the bracket.
XG REGRESSIONCUW @ ECU
Ecuador have created more than they've scored
Ecuador are scoring 0.5/match on 1.5 xG — 1.0 goals/match below expected across 4 matches. The chances are there; they're due for the finishing to catch up.
SITUATIONALHOU @ WSH
WSH's bullpen has covered 13 innings over the last 3 games
That is 13 relief innings in 3 games, led by Eddy Yean (2) and Justin Lawrence (2). HOU's pen has thrown 12.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 2-8
BALLPARKCLE @ MIN
At Target Field, Connor Prielipp pitches to a 3.99 ERA
Connor Prielipp at Target Field: 3.99 ERA over 38.3 innings (7G) — 6.56 on a 23.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .216 off him here.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
TOMORROWARI @ SD
Merrill Kelly: 5.71 ERA vs 7.78 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs SD. A 5.71 ERA against a 7.78 expected ERA (2.07 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .291 vs .311 expected.
BALLPARKMIL @ STL
At Busch Stadium, Michael McGreevy pitches to a 1.96 ERA
Michael McGreevy at Busch Stadium: 1.96 ERA over 46 innings (8G) — 4.20 on a 49.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .222 off him here.
P 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
REGRESSIONKC @ NYM
Francisco Lindor: .210 AVG vs .265 xBA
Francisco Lindor is hitting .210 against a .265 expected average (xBA) over 155 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .292 against a .348 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
REGRESSIONCOL @ LAD
Mickey Moniak: .282 AVG vs .229 xBA
Mickey Moniak's .282 average comes against a .229 expected (xBA) on 212 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .395 against a .319 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
REGRESSIONOAK @ DET
Zack Gelof: .281 AVG vs .229 xBA
Zack Gelof is hitting .281 against a .229 expected average (xBA) over 241 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .357 against a .294 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
PARK WEATHERTOR @ SF
Wind blowing out 11 mph at Oracle Park tonight
Conditions at Oracle Park: Overcast, 62°, wind 11 mph, Out To CF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 10.5.
P final total 10 vs 10.5 (over lean)
PARK WEATHERKC @ NYM
Wind blowing out 11 mph at Citi Field tonight
Tonight's reading at Citi Field — Clear, 77°, wind 11 mph, Out To LF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 9.5.
P final total 8 vs 9.5 (over lean)
STREAKCOL @ UZB
Colombia are unbeaten in their last 3 World Cup matches
Across their last 4 2018 World Cup matches they are 2-1-1 (D-W-W-L), carrying a 3-match unbeaten run.
FANTASY PICKUPSARI @ SD
Gavin Sheets
Sheets slots into the cleanup spot with a respectable 0.77 OPS and a prime opportunity to drive in runs tonight. He faces Jose Cabrera, whose 6.41 xERA indicates he is struggling significantly and is prone to giving up production. Stream him tonight in 12-teamers.
STREAKCPV @ ESP
Spain are winless in their last 3 World Cup matches
Across their last 8 2022 World Cup matches they are 2-4-2 (L-L-D-W-D-D-W-D), carrying 3 straight World Cup games without a win.
REGRESSIONOAK @ DET
Matt Vierling: .203 AVG vs .252 xBA
Matt Vierling's .203 average comes against a .252 expected (xBA) on 244 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .262 against a .302 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
TOMORROWARI @ SD
Griffin Canning: 6.71 ERA vs 4.81 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs ARI. A 6.71 ERA against a 4.81 expected ERA (1.9 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .269 vs .245 expected.
SITUATIONALBIH @ USA
USA arrive on 5 days' rest; Bosnia & Herzegovina have had 7
USA come into the fixture on 5 days' rest while Bosnia & Herzegovina have had 7 days' — a 2-day recovery gap in the July 2 meeting.
SITUATIONALPAR @ TUR
Türkiye arrive on 5 days' rest; Paraguay have had 7
Türkiye come into the fixture on 5 days' rest while Paraguay have had 7 days' — a 2-day recovery gap in the June 20 meeting.
REGRESSIONATL @ PIT
Jake Mangum: .305 AVG vs .256 xBA
Across 235 plate appearances, Jake Mangum carries a .305 average versus a .256 xBA. His wOBA sits at .322 against a .284 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TOURNAMENTGROUP G
Group G is the tightest group-winner market
Group G's group-winner market is the most open on the board: Belgium and Egypt both priced inside +250.
REGRESSIONSEA @ MIA
Liam Hicks: .295 AVG vs .251 xBA
Across 324 plate appearances, Liam Hicks carries a .295 average versus a .251 xBA. His wOBA sits at .364 against a .311 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REGRESSIONSEA @ MIA
Otto Lopez: .343 AVG vs .298 xBA
Otto Lopez is hitting .343 against a .298 expected average (xBA) over 388 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .382 against a .342 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
REGRESSIONSEA @ MIA
Tyler Phillips: 3.52 ERA vs 4.81 xERA
Tyler Phillips carries a 3.52 ERA against a 4.81 expected ERA (1.29 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .240 off him vs a .259 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
BALLPARKOAK @ DET
Troy Melton owns a 3.18 ERA at Comerica Park — 1.33 everywhere else
Across 3 games (17 IP) at Comerica Park, Troy Melton has a 3.18 ERA against 1.33 at his other parks (27 IP). Hitters bat .180 off him here.
P 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
RUNNING GAMESEA @ MIA
Seattle Mariners like to run — Joe Mack (43% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Joe Mack owns a 43% caught-stealing rate (17 of 40) and Seattle Mariners run anyway — 0.7 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Seattle Mariners stole 1 base
BULLPENATL @ PIT
Atlanta Braves pen: 14.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Atlanta Braves's bullpen has thrown 14.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 1 arm working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
TOMORROWCHC @ BAL
David Peterson: 6.75 ERA vs 5.14 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs BAL. A 6.75 ERA against a 5.14 expected ERA (1.61 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .300 vs .280 expected.
XG RECAPEGY @ ARG
Argentina created the better chances
Argentina led the xG 2.9–0.9 and took the result to match (3–2).
TOURNAMENTSUREST TO ADVANCE
Côte d'Ivoire are the surest bet to advance
Côte d'Ivoire are -10000 to escape their group out of Group E — the shortest to-advance price on the board.
REGRESSIONKC @ NYM
Christian Scott: 3.49 ERA vs 4.74 xERA
Christian Scott carries a 3.49 ERA against a 4.74 expected ERA (1.25 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .223 off him vs a .241 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
REGRESSIONTOR @ SF
Ernie Clement: .298 AVG vs .259 xBA
Across 354 plate appearances, Ernie Clement carries a .298 average versus a .259 xBA. His wOBA sits at .327 against a .275 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
REGRESSIONTOR @ SF
Luis Arraez: .327 AVG vs .289 xBA
Luis Arraez is hitting .327 against a .289 expected average (xBA) over 380 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .353 against a .307 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSMIL @ STL
Garrett Mitchell
Mitchell brings a strong .825 OPS into a favorable matchup against Michael McGreevy and his 5.6 xERA. Batting fifth gives him ample opportunities to drive in runs against a pitcher who has struggled to prevent damage this season. Stream him tonight in 12-teamers.
STREAKEGY @ BEL
Belgium are winless in their last 2 World Cup matches
Across their last 8 2022 World Cup matches they are 5-1-2 (D-L-W-W-L-W-W-W), carrying 2 straight World Cup games without a win.
STREAKMAR @ BRA
Morocco are winless in their last 2 World Cup matches
Across their last 8 2022 World Cup matches they are 4-2-2 (L-L-W-W-W-W-D-D), carrying 2 straight World Cup games without a win.
STREAKCUW @ GER
Germany are unbeaten in their last 2 World Cup matches
Across their last 6 2022 World Cup matches they are 2-1-3 (W-D-L-L-W-L), carrying a 2-match unbeaten run.
BALLPARKKC @ NYM
At Citi Field, Christian Scott pitches to a 4.50 ERA
Christian Scott at Citi Field: 4.50 ERA over 20 innings (5G) — 2.79 on a 29-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .278 off him here.
P 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
REGRESSIONNYY @ TB
Shane McClanahan: 3.05 ERA vs 4.28 xERA
Shane McClanahan carries a 3.05 ERA against a 4.28 expected ERA (1.23 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .217 off him vs a .247 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
REGRESSIONHOU @ WSH
Foster Griffin: 2.87 ERA vs 4.02 xERA
Foster Griffin carries a 2.87 ERA against a 4.02 expected ERA (1.15 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .210 off him vs a .242 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
BALLPARKNYY @ TB
At Tropicana Field, Shane McClanahan pitches to a 2.21 ERA
Shane McClanahan at Tropicana Field: 2.21 ERA over 36.7 innings (7G) — 3.77 on a 43-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .201 off him here.
P 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
RUNNING GAMECLE @ MIN
Green light: Minnesota Twins run, and Austin Hedges has caught just 6%
Austin Hedges is catching tonight at 6% on the season (2-for-33 throwing), and Minnesota Twins attempt 0.9 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Minnesota Twins stole 0 bases
REGRESSIONOAK @ DET
Jeffrey Springs: 5.79 ERA vs 4.61 xERA
Jeffrey Springs carries a 5.79 ERA against a 4.61 expected ERA (1.18 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .262 off him vs a .247 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
BALLPARKCOL @ LAD
Roki Sasaki's ERA drops to 4.62 at Dodger Stadium
Roki Sasaki carries a 4.62 ERA over 8 games (39 IP) at Dodger Stadium vs 6.25 across 36 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .250 off him here.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
TOURNAMENTGROUP B
Group B: Switzerland, Canada, Qatar, Bosnia & Herzegovina
Switzerland enter as the No. 7 title choice at +3000. Opens June 12: Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina. Shortest price to win Group B: Switzerland at -100000.
TOURNAMENTGROUP A
Group A: Mexico, South Korea, Czechia, South Africa
Mexico enter as the No. 12 title choice at +8000. Opens June 11: Mexico vs South Africa. Shortest price to win Group A: Mexico at -650.
XG RECAPENG @ MEX
Mexico dominated the ball but didn't win
Mexico held 67% of possession yet lost to England (2–3) — control without the cutting edge.
FANTASY PICKUPSCHC @ BAL
Adley Rutschman
Pickup vs Colin Rea (5.49 xERA) — .777 OPS, bats 2nd.
TOURNAMENTGROUP G
Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
Belgium enter as the No. 8 title choice at +3000. Opens June 15: Belgium vs Egypt. Shortest price to win Group G: Belgium at -100000.
FANTASY PICKUPSMIL @ STL
William Contreras
Contreras is hitting a stout .288 and will look to do damage from the cleanup spot against Michael McGreevy. McGreevy's 5.6 xERA makes this a high-upside matchup for a hitter with the .758 OPS and contact skills that Contreras provides. Stream him tonight in 12-teamers.
TOURNAMENTGROUP F
Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia
Netherlands enter as the No. 9 title choice at +3500. Opens June 14: Netherlands vs Japan. Shortest price to win Group F: Netherlands at -100000.
TOURNAMENTGROUP E
Group E: Germany, Côte d'Ivoire, Ecuador, Curaçao
Germany enter as the No. 10 title choice at +4000. Opens June 14: Germany vs Curaçao. Shortest price to win Group E: Germany at -100000.
TOURNAMENTGROUP D
Group D: USA, Türkiye, Australia, Paraguay
USA are the market favourite to win Group D at -20000. Opens June 13: USA vs Paraguay.
TOURNAMENTGROUP C
Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti
Morocco enter as the No. 6 title choice at +2700. Opens June 13: Brazil vs Morocco. Shortest price to win Group C: Brazil at -100000.
FANTASY PICKUPSCHC @ BAL
Samuel Basallo
Pickup vs Colin Rea (5.49 xERA) — .785 OPS, bats 5th.
FANTASY PICKUPSOAK @ DET
Troy Melton
Streamer vs OAK — 3.07 xERA · 6.5 K/9 · 0.8 WHIP.
RUNNING GAMESEA @ MIA
Miami Marlins like to run — Cal Raleigh (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Cal Raleigh owns a 33% caught-stealing rate (11 of 33) and Miami Marlins run anyway — 1.1 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Miami Marlins stole 0 bases
BATTER VS ARMMAR @ FRA
France and Morocco last met at the 2022 World Cup — 2-0
Their lone 2022 World Cup meeting finished 2-0. The 2026 market opens France -170 / the draw +285 / Morocco +500.
FANTASY PICKUPSSEA @ MIA
Randy Arozarena
Pickup vs Tyler Phillips (4.81 xERA) — .834 OPS, bats 2nd.
TOMORROWKC @ NYM
Sean Manaea: 5.16 ERA vs 4.13 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs KC. A 5.16 ERA against a 4.13 expected ERA (1.03 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .262 vs .247 expected.
FANTASY PICKUPSNYY @ TB
Gerrit Cole
Streamer vs TB — 3.34 xERA · 8.6 K/9 · 1.2 WHIP.
FANTASY PICKUPSCHC @ BAL
Taylor Ward
Pickup vs Colin Rea (5.49 xERA) — .730 OPS, bats 3rd.
RUNNING GAMEMIL @ STL
Milwaukee Brewers like to run — Pedro Pages (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Milwaukee Brewers attempt 1.2 steals a game, but Pedro Pages has cut down 16 of 48 runners (33%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 0 bases
RUNNING GAMEATL @ PIT
Green light: Pittsburgh Pirates run, and Joey Bart has caught just 14%
Joey Bart is catching tonight at 14% on the season (4-for-29 throwing), and Pittsburgh Pirates attempt 1.1 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Pittsburgh Pirates stole 1 base
RUNNING GAMECLE @ MIN
Green light: Cleveland Guardians run, and Victor Caratini has caught just 15%
Cleveland Guardians steal 0.9 bags a game (84 on the season) and Victor Caratini has thrown out 8 of 53 runners (15%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
P Cleveland Guardians stole 1 base
TOMORROWLAA @ TEX
Reid Detmers: 4.13 ERA vs 3.19 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TEX. A 4.13 ERA against a 3.19 expected ERA (0.94 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .213 vs .215 expected.
FIRST INNINGSEA @ MIA
SEA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Seattle Mariners have scored in the first inning just 0 times in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
ADVANCEMENTSCO @ HAI
Scotland's route through Group C
The market has Scotland up against it to reach the last 16 at +250 (3rd, 3 pts).
ADVANCEMENTSUI @ QAT
Switzerland's route through Group B
The market has Switzerland all but through to reach the last 16 at -750 (1st, 7 pts).
ADVANCEMENTBIH @ CAN
Bosnia & Herzegovina's route through Group B
The market has Bosnia & Herzegovina strong favorites to reach the last 16 at -250 (3rd, 4 pts).
ADVANCEMENTCZE @ KOR
South Korea hold the edge to advance from Group A
The market has South Korea all but through to reach the last 16 at -2500 (3rd, 3 pts). Czechia are +225 (4th, 1 pt) to join them.
ADVANCEMENTRSA @ MEX
South Africa's route through Group A
The market has South Africa up against it to reach the last 16 at +450 (2nd, 4 pts).
BALLPARKW98 @ W97
W97 vs W98: indoors at AT&T Stadium
AT&T Stadium is a retractable-roof venue — retractable roof with air conditioning. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
BALLPARKCOL @ SUI
Switzerland vs Colombia: indoors at BC Place
BC Place is a retractable-roof venue — retractable roof, mild Pacific climate. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
TOMORROWSEA @ MIA
Janson Junk: 4.8 ERA vs 4 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs SEA. A 4.8 ERA against a 4 expected ERA (0.8 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .273 vs .256 expected.
TOMORROWBOS @ CHW
Anthony Kay: 4.39 ERA vs 5.24 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs BOS. A 4.39 ERA against a 5.24 expected ERA (0.85 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .258 vs .267 expected.
BALLPARKEGY @ ARG
Argentina vs Egypt: indoors at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Mercedes-Benz Stadium is a closed-roof venue — closed roof with air conditioning. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
BALLPARKW10 @ W99
W99 vs W100: indoors at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Mercedes-Benz Stadium is a closed-roof venue — closed roof with air conditioning. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
BALLPARKBEL @ ESP
Spain vs Belgium: indoors at SoFi Stadium
SoFi Stadium is a closed-roof venue — canopy roof, climate-managed. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
FANTASY PICKUPSHOU @ WSH
Foster Griffin
Streamer vs HOU — 4.02 xERA · 8.7 K/9 · 1.04 WHIP.
BALLPARKMAR @ FRA
France vs Morocco: warm at Gillette Stadium
87°F at kickoff — warm enough to weigh on legs across 90+ minutes. Conditions at Gillette Stadium: 87°F, 11 mph wind, 1% rain.
FIRST INNINGMIL @ STL
MIL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Milwaukee Brewers have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGCLE @ MIN
MIN strike first: 1st-inning runs in 7 of their last 10
Minnesota Twins have put up a first-inning run in 7 of their last 10 games — they jump on starters early and the YRFI side of their games has been doing the work.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGARI @ SD
ARI strike first: 1st-inning runs in 7 of their last 10
Arizona Diamondbacks have put up a first-inning run in 7 of their last 10 games — they jump on starters early and the YRFI side of their games has been doing the work.
P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGCOL @ LAD
COL strike first: 1st-inning runs in 7 of their last 10
Colorado Rockies have put up a first-inning run in 7 of their last 10 games — they jump on starters early and the YRFI side of their games has been doing the work.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

Graded results

Games

W
Reds ML -142
MLB · 5-11
L
Dodgers -1.5 -125
MLB · 3-4
W
Red Sox ML -104
MLB · 5-0
L
Guardians ML +102
MLB · 5-6
W
Padres ML -142
MLB · 4-10
L
Rangers ML -152
MLB · 13-1
W
Blue Jays ML -126
MLB · 10-0
W
Rays ML -118
MLB · 0-3
L
Astros ML +116
MLB · 2-8
L
Seattle Mariners ML -130
MLB · 0-2
W
Braves ML +102
MLB · 3-0
W
Tigers ML -134
MLB · 1-6
L
Orioles ML -126
MLB · 9-7
W
Mets ML -196
MLB · 2-6
L
Brewers ML -152
MLB · 1-5

Props

L
Adley Rutschman · over
Cubs @ Orioles · Actual 1
L
Bobby Witt Jr. · over
Royals @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Bryce Harper · over
Phillies @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Chase DeLauter · over
Guardians @ Twins · Actual 2
W
Christian Walker · over
Astros @ Nationals · Actual 2
L
Cole Carrigg · over
Rockies @ Dodgers · Actual 0
W
Elly De La Cruz · over
Phillies @ Reds · Actual 7
W
Elly De La Cruz · over
Phillies @ Reds · Actual 1
L
Ian Happ · over
Cubs @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Jake Bauers · over
Brewers @ Cardinals · Actual 0
W
James Wood · over
Astros @ Nationals · Actual 3
W
Jordan Walker · over
Brewers @ Cardinals · Actual 3
L
Juan Soto · over
Royals @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Juan Soto · over
Royals @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Ketel Marte · over
Diamondbacks @ Padres · Actual 1
W
Kody Clemens · over
Guardians @ Twins · Actual 4
W
Kyle Schwarber · over
Phillies @ Reds · Actual 1
L
Luke Raley · over
Mariners @ Marlins · Actual 1
W
Michael Harris II · over
Braves @ Pirates · Actual 2
L
Miguel Vargas · over
Red Sox @ White Sox · Actual 0
W
Mike Trout · over
Angels @ Rangers · Actual 1
W
Otto Lopez · over
Mariners @ Marlins · Actual 3
W
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Cubs @ Orioles · Actual 7
W
Rafael Devers · over
Blue Jays @ Giants · Actual 1
L
Ryan O'Hearn · over
Braves @ Pirates · Actual 1
L
Samuel Basallo · over
Cubs @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Shohei Ohtani · over
Rockies @ Dodgers · Actual 0
W
Spencer Torkelson · over
Athletics @ Tigers · Actual 4
L
Tyler Tolbert · over
Royals @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Willson Contreras · over
Red Sox @ White Sox · Actual 0
L
Willson Contreras · over
Red Sox @ White Sox · Actual 0
W
Yandy Diaz · over
Yankees @ Rays · Actual 5
L
Zach Neto · over
Angels @ Rangers · Actual 0