Sports Picks Archive — Thursday, July 9, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Pirates· -116

Welcome to a sun-drenched PNC Park for this Thursday afternoon rubber match, where the high heat and humidity set the stage for a critical battle between the Braves and the Pirates. When you look at the board today, the bookies are practically begging you to take a shot on the home underdog, but my eyes are locked on the mound where there is a massive gap in pitching quality that the market simply isn't accounting for. Mitch Keller starts for the Pirates with a surface-level 5.02 ERA, but his underlying metrics are even uglier, carrying a bloated 5.38 xERA that signals major trouble. Contrast that with Atlanta's Bryce Elder, who holds a steady 4.01 ERA but boasts an elite 3.62 xERA, proving he has been much sharper than his traditional line suggests. This starting pitching disparity becomes a glaring issue for Pittsburgh when you examine the platoon splits. Keller has been absolutely shredded by left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .283 average and .832 OPS, which spells disaster against a Braves lineup packed with left-handed power like Michael Harris II, Drake Baldwin, and Matt Olson. Olson in particular has completely dismantled Keller in his career, boasting a .500 average and an imposing 1.372 OPS. On the flip side, Elder is a master at neutralizing lefties, holding opposing left-handed bats to a microscopic .206 average and .611 OPS. That completely handcuffs Pittsburgh’s best left-handed/switch hitters at the top of the card like Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, and Ryan O'Hearn, who will struggle to get anything going. While there are valid concerns about a taxed Braves bullpen, Atlanta's superior defensive alignment and overall depth give them the definitive late-game edge. The Braves feature a clean, disciplined defense that has committed just 41 errors and holds a .987 fielding percentage, whereas the Pirates have been sloppy with 56 errors and a .983 fielding percentage. Atlanta's veteran presence and ability to limit self-inflicted damage will keep them in control even if they have to lean on middle-relief depth. We are getting a 53-38 Braves team that dominates winning competition at a highly discounted -116 price against a 47-46 Pirates squad. Lay the short price on the visitors.

This starting pitching disparity becomes a glaring issue for Pittsburgh when you examine the platoon splits. Keller has been absolutely shredded by left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .283 average and .832 OPS, which spells disaster against a Braves lineup packed with left-handed power like Michael Harris II, Drake Baldwin, and Matt Olson. Olson in particular has completely dismantled Keller in his career, boasting a .500 average and an imposing 1.372 OPS. On the flip side, Elder is a master at neutralizing lefties, holding opposing left-handed bats to a microscopic .206 average and .611 OPS. That completely handcuffs Pittsburgh’s best left-handed/switch hitters at the top of the card like Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, and Ryan O'Hearn, who will struggle to get anything going.

While there are valid concerns about a taxed Braves bullpen, Atlanta's superior defensive alignment and overall depth give them the definitive late-game edge. The Braves feature a clean, disciplined defense that has committed just 41 errors and holds a .987 fielding percentage, whereas the Pirates have been sloppy with 56 errors and a .983 fielding percentage. Atlanta's veteran presence and ability to limit self-inflicted damage will keep them in control even if they have to lean on middle-relief depth. We are getting a 53-38 Braves team that dominates winning competition at a highly discounted -116 price against a 47-46 Pirates squad. Lay the short price on the visitors.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Mets· +116

It is a beautiful afternoon at Citi Field as the Kansas City Royals and the New York Mets meet for a decisive series finale under partly cloudy skies. This rubber match features an intriguing pitching matchup and a massive contrast in team situations, but the betting value lies squarely on one side. I am taking the Royals on the moneyline at +116 because they possess the starting pitching advantage and a lineup perfectly aligned to exploit the opposing starter's historical struggles. Michael Wacha takes the mound for Kansas City riding a stellar stretch, with three consecutive quality starts and at least seven innings pitched in eight games this year. Wacha's durability is a crucial asset today, as it helps mitigate the Royals' fatigued bullpen. He has been highly effective against lefties, holding them to a .238 average and a .669 OPS, which is key to suppressing the Mets' top left-handed hitters like Juan Soto. Meanwhile, Sean Manaea has struggled to a 5.16 ERA and has been vulnerable against right-handed hitters, allowing a .276 average and an .867 OPS. The Royals start eight right-handed or switch-hitters today, including Salvador Perez—who has hit three home runs in 18 career at-bats against Manaea—and Bobby Witt Jr., who carries a .300 batting average against him and matches up well against the sinkers and sweepers that comprise over half of Manaea's mix. Defensively, the Royals also hold a meaningful edge. Kansas City boasts a stable .987 fielding percentage, whereas the Mets' infield is compromised by the fresh injury to second baseman Marcus Semien, who was sidelined yesterday with a left hip injury. This absence forces Brett Baty into an unfamiliar defensive role at second base, leaving the Mets vulnerable to infield errors. While the Mets' bullpen is rested with Devin Williams and Luke Weaver, Wacha's durability and the Royals' platoon-heavy offense should allow Kansas City to establish an early lead. At +116, the value is on the road underdog to take this rubber match.

Michael Wacha takes the mound for Kansas City riding a stellar stretch, with three consecutive quality starts and at least seven innings pitched in eight games this year. Wacha's durability is a crucial asset today, as it helps mitigate the Royals' fatigued bullpen. He has been highly effective against lefties, holding them to a .238 average and a .669 OPS, which is key to suppressing the Mets' top left-handed hitters like Juan Soto. Meanwhile, Sean Manaea has struggled to a 5.16 ERA and has been vulnerable against right-handed hitters, allowing a .276 average and an .867 OPS. The Royals start eight right-handed or switch-hitters today, including Salvador Perez—who has hit three home runs in 18 career at-bats against Manaea—and Bobby Witt Jr., who carries a .300 batting average against him and matches up well against the sinkers and sweepers that comprise over half of Manaea's mix.

Defensively, the Royals also hold a meaningful edge. Kansas City boasts a stable .987 fielding percentage, whereas the Mets' infield is compromised by the fresh injury to second baseman Marcus Semien, who was sidelined yesterday with a left hip injury. This absence forces Brett Baty into an unfamiliar defensive role at second base, leaving the Mets vulnerable to infield errors. While the Mets' bullpen is rested with Devin Williams and Luke Weaver, Wacha's durability and the Royals' platoon-heavy offense should allow Kansas City to establish an early lead. At +116, the value is on the road underdog to take this rubber match.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Yankees· -154

An afternoon matinee at Tropicana Field concludes a high-stakes divisional clash, as the red-hot Tampa Bay Rays host a reeling New York Yankees squad under the dome. Drew Rasmussen (7-4, 2.78 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) is starting for Tampa Bay, while the Yankees are forced into a bullpen game because of Carlos Rodón's fresh elbow injury. Paul Blackburn (2-1, 2.22 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) is opening, but with bulk reliever Ryan Yarbrough (4.29 ERA) expected to handle heavy frames, the Yankees face a serious disadvantage against a highly stable Rays pitching staff. Tampa Bay has been virtually unbeatable at home this season with a 33-13 record, whereas New York is struggling on the road at 27-22 and enters on a dismal 2-8 skid in their last 10 games. My read is that the Rays' lineup is perfectly aligned to exploit the Yankees' pitching strategy. Tampa Bay's hitters possess elite numbers against the sinker/cutter mix thrown by both Blackburn and Yarbrough. Specifically, Yandy Diaz (.387 AVG, 1.116 OPS at home; .370 AVG in day games) hits .391 against the sinker, while Junior Caminero (.313 AVG, 1.035 OPS at home; .298 AVG in day games) boasts a .415 xwOBA against the pitch. Blackburn's heavy reliance on his sinker (33.1% usage) plays right into their hands. On the other side, Rasmussen has absolutely dominated the Yankees' current lineup, holding this core to a combined 1-for-23 (.043 BA) with 14 strikeouts. Furthermore, the Yankees' offensive output has plummeted during their slide, especially with Giancarlo Stanton's recent calf setback keeping him out of the lineup. The defensive metrics further separate these teams in a pitcher-friendly park carrying a 0.93 park factor. The Rays' infield features gold-standard shortstop Taylor Walls, who leads the AL in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) to support Rasmussen's ground-ball profile (1.18 GO/AO). Conversely, the Yankees' infield is regressing, with Ryan McMahon posting a .947 fielding percentage and Jose Caballero carrying a -2 OAA. This is highly problematic behind Blackburn's grounder-heavy 1.57 GO/AO. While Rays closer Bryan Baker (1.73 ERA, 25 SV) has a heavy workload after pitching in two straight games, their deep bullpen and Rasmussen's ability to pitch deep (97.0 IP in 17 starts) should prevent late-game fatigue from becoming a factor. Laying -154 with the Rays on their home turf is a sharp, high-conviction play.

My read is that the Rays' lineup is perfectly aligned to exploit the Yankees' pitching strategy. Tampa Bay's hitters possess elite numbers against the sinker/cutter mix thrown by both Blackburn and Yarbrough. Specifically, Yandy Diaz (.387 AVG, 1.116 OPS at home; .370 AVG in day games) hits .391 against the sinker, while Junior Caminero (.313 AVG, 1.035 OPS at home; .298 AVG in day games) boasts a .415 xwOBA against the pitch. Blackburn's heavy reliance on his sinker (33.1% usage) plays right into their hands. On the other side, Rasmussen has absolutely dominated the Yankees' current lineup, holding this core to a combined 1-for-23 (.043 BA) with 14 strikeouts. Furthermore, the Yankees' offensive output has plummeted during their slide, especially with Giancarlo Stanton's recent calf setback keeping him out of the lineup.

The defensive metrics further separate these teams in a pitcher-friendly park carrying a 0.93 park factor. The Rays' infield features gold-standard shortstop Taylor Walls, who leads the AL in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) to support Rasmussen's ground-ball profile (1.18 GO/AO). Conversely, the Yankees' infield is regressing, with Ryan McMahon posting a .947 fielding percentage and Jose Caballero carrying a -2 OAA. This is highly problematic behind Blackburn's grounder-heavy 1.57 GO/AO. While Rays closer Bryan Baker (1.73 ERA, 25 SV) has a heavy workload after pitching in two straight games, their deep bullpen and Rasmussen's ability to pitch deep (97.0 IP in 17 starts) should prevent late-game fatigue from becoming a factor. Laying -154 with the Rays on their home turf is a sharp, high-conviction play.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Cubs· -130

An early afternoon sun beats down on Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the Chicago Cubs look to complete a road sweep against a reeling Baltimore Orioles squad in this rescheduled series finale. While the public is eagerly jumping on the surging Cubs as road underdogs, smart money points directly to the home side's starting pitching advantage to break Baltimore's slide. Trevor Rogers has been on an absolute tear, pitching to a microscopic 0.90 ERA over his last three starts while racking up 17 strikeouts and allowing only eight hits across 18.1 innings. Meanwhile, David Peterson enters this contest in a complete tailspin, logging a horrific 12.00 ERA over his last three starts and surrendering 16 earned runs in just 12.0 innings. The discrepancy on the mound is as wide as it gets, and at a reasonable price of -130, the Orioles are the clear play. Stylistically, this matchup is a nightmare for the Cubs' left-handed hitters and a dream for the Orioles' right-handed power bats. Rogers has completely neutralized lefties all season, holding them to a .171 batting average and a .526 OPS, which will severely limit the impact of Chicago's key left-handed threats Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Furthermore, Rogers' heavy reliance on his four-seam fastball and changeup—which combined make up 65% of his pitch usage—is designed to stifle Crow-Armstrong (.304 xwOBA against four-seamers) and Ian Happ (.200 xwOBA against changeups). On the flip side, Peterson’s high-usage sinker (29%) has been hammered this year to the tune of a .410 xwOBA allowed. Right-handed sluggers Pete Alonso (.441 xwOBA against sinkers) and Taylor Ward (.398 xwOBA) are perfectly positioned to punish Peterson, especially considering Peterson allows a bloated .313 batting average and .823 OPS to right-handed hitters. The weather-induced schedule change to an early afternoon start further solidifies Baltimore’s edge. Both pitchers show significant improvements in day games, but Rogers’ daytime split is particularly sharp, holding a 3.62 Day ERA compared to a 5.55 Night ERA. Peterson drops from his nightmare 8.64 Night ERA to a 4.54 Day ERA, which is still highly vulnerable against Baltimore's right-handed heavy lineup. Given that both bullpens are heavily depleted—with the Cubs missing high-leverage arms like Jacob Webb and Trent Thornton, and the Orioles navigating recent bullpen additions—the starting pitching mismatch will dictate the flow of this game. Expect Rogers to keep the Cubs' hot bats in check early, allowing Baltimore's right-handed bats to exploit Peterson and secure a crucial series-salvaging victory.

Stylistically, this matchup is a nightmare for the Cubs' left-handed hitters and a dream for the Orioles' right-handed power bats. Rogers has completely neutralized lefties all season, holding them to a .171 batting average and a .526 OPS, which will severely limit the impact of Chicago's key left-handed threats Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Furthermore, Rogers' heavy reliance on his four-seam fastball and changeup—which combined make up 65% of his pitch usage—is designed to stifle Crow-Armstrong (.304 xwOBA against four-seamers) and Ian Happ (.200 xwOBA against changeups). On the flip side, Peterson’s high-usage sinker (29%) has been hammered this year to the tune of a .410 xwOBA allowed. Right-handed sluggers Pete Alonso (.441 xwOBA against sinkers) and Taylor Ward (.398 xwOBA) are perfectly positioned to punish Peterson, especially considering Peterson allows a bloated .313 batting average and .823 OPS to right-handed hitters.

The weather-induced schedule change to an early afternoon start further solidifies Baltimore’s edge. Both pitchers show significant improvements in day games, but Rogers’ daytime split is particularly sharp, holding a 3.62 Day ERA compared to a 5.55 Night ERA. Peterson drops from his nightmare 8.64 Night ERA to a 4.54 Day ERA, which is still highly vulnerable against Baltimore's right-handed heavy lineup. Given that both bullpens are heavily depleted—with the Cubs missing high-leverage arms like Jacob Webb and Trent Thornton, and the Orioles navigating recent bullpen additions—the starting pitching mismatch will dictate the flow of this game. Expect Rogers to keep the Cubs' hot bats in check early, allowing Baltimore's right-handed bats to exploit Peterson and secure a crucial series-salvaging victory.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Twins· -124

Afternoon shadows creep across Target Field as the Guardians and Twins clash in a crucial AL Central division finale. With Cleveland looking to avoid a sweep and Minnesota riding high, this matchup on the mound holds all the answers. The betting market has adjusted heavily to Cleveland's recent four-game skid, leaving the Guardians at a very attractive price on the moneyline behind their top starting pitcher, Gavin Williams. Williams has been outstanding this season, sporting a 9-4 record with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He has been particularly spectacular under the afternoon sun, posting a brilliant 2.65 Day ERA across 37.1 innings. This daytime dominance is a massive edge against an active Twins lineup that has historically looked completely lost against him, with Trevor Larnach (0-for-6), Brooks Lee (0-for-5), and Alan Roden (0-for-5) going a combined 0-for-16 against his arsenal. Conversely, the Twins are sending Bailey Ober to the mound for his first start since late May after a stint on the injured list with right elbow inflammation. Not only are there clear questions regarding Ober's durability and pitch count in his return, but his splits this season are highly concerning for an afternoon start. Ober struggles significantly during the day, laboring to a 5.66 Day ERA. Additionally, his primary changeup, which he throws 36% of the time, has been highly vulnerable this season, allowing a .443 xwOBA. If the Guardians can force an early exit for the returning right-hander, they will expose a heavily taxed Twins bullpen. Minnesota's key leverage relievers, Yoendrys Gómez and Taylor Rogers, have both pitched on back-to-back days, leaving the Twins short-handed in the later frames. Even with Cleveland's left-hander Tim Herrin likely unavailable after taking a line drive off his elbow yesterday, the Guardians still boast the vastly superior late-inning relief. Cade Smith (2.83 ERA, 26 SV, 12.8 K/9) and Hunter Gaddis (2.93 ERA, 15 HLD) are fully capable of slamming the door in the final innings. While the Twins have run hot over their last ten games, today's pitching and rest dynamics strongly favor the road underdog. The line has drifted too far in Minnesota's direction based on recent variance, creating a prime opportunity to back Cleveland's ace in a bounce-back spot.

Conversely, the Twins are sending Bailey Ober to the mound for his first start since late May after a stint on the injured list with right elbow inflammation. Not only are there clear questions regarding Ober's durability and pitch count in his return, but his splits this season are highly concerning for an afternoon start. Ober struggles significantly during the day, laboring to a 5.66 Day ERA. Additionally, his primary changeup, which he throws 36% of the time, has been highly vulnerable this season, allowing a .443 xwOBA. If the Guardians can force an early exit for the returning right-hander, they will expose a heavily taxed Twins bullpen. Minnesota's key leverage relievers, Yoendrys Gómez and Taylor Rogers, have both pitched on back-to-back days, leaving the Twins short-handed in the later frames.

Even with Cleveland's left-hander Tim Herrin likely unavailable after taking a line drive off his elbow yesterday, the Guardians still boast the vastly superior late-inning relief. Cade Smith (2.83 ERA, 26 SV, 12.8 K/9) and Hunter Gaddis (2.93 ERA, 15 HLD) are fully capable of slamming the door in the final innings. While the Twins have run hot over their last ten games, today's pitching and rest dynamics strongly favor the road underdog. The line has drifted too far in Minnesota's direction based on recent variance, creating a prime opportunity to back Cleveland's ace in a bounce-back spot.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ White Sox· -102

Guaranteed Rate Field sets the stage for an intriguing Thursday matinee as the surging Boston Red Sox look to complete a three-game sweep of the division-leading Chicago White Sox. While the market lists Chicago as a slight home favorite due to their stellar 28-16 home record and Patrick Sandoval making his season debut on a strict pitch limit, the value sits squarely with the visiting Red Sox at near-even money. The primary edge tonight is the starting pitching matchup, specifically the high probability of regression for White Sox starter Anthony Kay. Despite his decent 6-3 record and 4.39 ERA, Kay's underlying expected metrics are highly concerning, highlighted by a bloated 5.24 xERA. Kay has struggled immensely against right-handed hitters, allowing a massive .288 AVG and an .845 OPS with 9 home runs in his splits. The Red Sox are perfectly constructed to exploit this weakness, entering today's game with an elite .450 xwOBA over their last three games. If righty-batting threats like Romy Gonzalez (.500 AVG with RISP) or Willson Contreras (.982 OPS vs lefties) get to Kay's sinker-and-cutter heavy mix early, Chicago will be forced to rely on a vulnerable bullpen. The bullpen matchup is where Boston has a massive advantage to secure the win. Following Jake Bennett's outstanding 7.0 scoreless innings on Wednesday, the Red Sox high-leverage relief corps is completely rested. Back-end weapons Aroldis Chapman (18 SV, 2.36 ERA) and Garrett Whitlock (14 HLD, 2.40 ERA) have not pitched since July 7, giving Boston elite depth to cover the innings behind Sandoval's shortened debut. Conversely, the White Sox bullpen is highly taxed; closer Seranthony Dominguez is coming off back-to-back appearances having thrown 32 pitches, and reliever Trevor Richards was placed on the bereavement list today. Whether the game is shortened by the threat of scattered thunderstorms or becomes a standard battle of the relievers, Boston's fresh arms and offensive momentum make them the sharp play at -102.

The primary edge tonight is the starting pitching matchup, specifically the high probability of regression for White Sox starter Anthony Kay. Despite his decent 6-3 record and 4.39 ERA, Kay's underlying expected metrics are highly concerning, highlighted by a bloated 5.24 xERA. Kay has struggled immensely against right-handed hitters, allowing a massive .288 AVG and an .845 OPS with 9 home runs in his splits. The Red Sox are perfectly constructed to exploit this weakness, entering today's game with an elite .450 xwOBA over their last three games. If righty-batting threats like Romy Gonzalez (.500 AVG with RISP) or Willson Contreras (.982 OPS vs lefties) get to Kay's sinker-and-cutter heavy mix early, Chicago will be forced to rely on a vulnerable bullpen.

The bullpen matchup is where Boston has a massive advantage to secure the win. Following Jake Bennett's outstanding 7.0 scoreless innings on Wednesday, the Red Sox high-leverage relief corps is completely rested. Back-end weapons Aroldis Chapman (18 SV, 2.36 ERA) and Garrett Whitlock (14 HLD, 2.40 ERA) have not pitched since July 7, giving Boston elite depth to cover the innings behind Sandoval's shortened debut. Conversely, the White Sox bullpen is highly taxed; closer Seranthony Dominguez is coming off back-to-back appearances having thrown 32 pitches, and reliever Trevor Richards was placed on the bereavement list today. Whether the game is shortened by the threat of scattered thunderstorms or becomes a standard battle of the relievers, Boston's fresh arms and offensive momentum make them the sharp play at -102.

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GARY'S PICK

WCvs Morocco· -165

Under the sweltering July heat of Gillette Stadium, two powerhouse nations meet in a high-stakes rematch of their legendary 2022 semifinal encounter with a spot in the final four on the line. Les Bleus look to extend their perfect tournament run, while the Atlas Lions aim to orchestrate another monumental upset on the global stage. My read on this spot starts with Morocco's severe offensive limitation. The Atlas Lions are forced to navigate this quarterfinal without their primary attacking catalyst, Ismael Saibari, who is sidelined with a fresh hamstring injury. Saibari’s absence leaves a massive void in an offense that, while efficient, already operates at a lower volume (12.83 shots per match) than France's relentless attack. France enters this match having won all five tournament games, scoring 14 goals and conceding just two. While they are missing defensive anchor Aurélien Tchouaméni, they possess the squad depth to field Manu Koné alongside Adrien Rabiot in the midfield pivot, ensuring they maintain control of the match tempo. With Kylian Mbappé in unstoppable form—leading the Golden Boot race with 7 goals—France simply has too many ways to break a defense. Morocco's defensive unit is elite, allowing a tournament xGA of just 0.70, but without Saibari to threaten on the counter, France can commit more resources forward. Expect Les Bleus to dominate possession, averaging 62.67%, and gradually wear down a disciplined but depleted Moroccan defense. At -165, France's class and attacking depth represent a highly playable price to get the job done inside 90 minutes.

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GARY'S PICK

WCMorocco @ France· -120

Under the sweltering July heat of Gillette Stadium, two powerhouse nations meet in a high-stakes rematch of their legendary 2022 semifinal encounter with a spot in the final four on the line. With thick humidity and temperatures climbing near 90 degrees at kickoff, this quarterfinal has all the ingredients for a physical, slow-tempo chess match. The extreme weather conditions in Foxborough will act as a natural governor on the pace of this game. Morocco's defensive structure has been sensational throughout this tournament, limiting opponents to just 0.70 xGA per match and keeping clean sheets against the likes of Canada and Scotland. Stripped of their leading scorer Ismael Saibari due to a fresh hamstring injury, the Atlas Lions have no choice but to sit deep, defend in a compact block, and frustrate the French. They showed against Brazil and the Netherlands that they can restrict elite offenses, and they will employ those exact same defensive blueprints here. France will also be highly calculated in their approach. With central shield Aurélien Tchouaméni out, Les Bleus are starting Manu Koné in midfield. Crucially, Koné, Michael Olise, and Bradley Barcola are all one booking away from a semifinal suspension. This yellow-card tightrope means France will avoid reckless defensive challenges and play a patient, possession-oriented style (averaging 62.67% possession) to minimize turnovers and counter-attacking opportunities. When you combine a cautious French game plan with a depleted Moroccan attack and punishing summer heat, the Under 2.5 goals at -120 is the sharpest look on the board.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Athletics· -124

The stage is set at a humid Comerica Park as the Detroit Tigers look to complete a series sweep against the struggling Oakland Athletics in this Thursday evening matchup. Detroit is playing its best baseball of the summer, entering tonight on a four-game winning streak and carrying a 7-3 record over their last 10 games. Their 42-50 overall record understates their true quality, which is highlighted by a strong +56 run differential and a solid 25-21 home record. Meanwhile, Oakland is heading in the opposite direction, mired in a 1-9 slide over their last 10 games with a -49 season run differential and a five-game losing streak. The decisive factor tonight is Oakland's fresh, last-minute rotation change, pivoting to Jack Perkins (2-4, 6.75 ERA) instead of Jose Suarez. Perkins relies heavily on his four-seam fastball at 37% usage, a pitch that Detroit's top lefties, Riley Greene (.308 AVG, .882 OPS vs RHP) and Kevin McGonigle (.290 AVG, .848 OPS vs RHP), both handle exceptionally well, posting xwOBAs above .369 against it. On the other side, Detroit rolls with Framber Valdez (4-6, 4.29 ERA, 1.38 WHIP), whose elite 1.27 GO/AO ratio is backed by a Tigers infield that ranks as the 5th-best defensive unit in MLB. While Oakland's Shea Langeliers represents a real threat against Valdez's 46.5% sinker usage with his .327 AVG and 1.011 OPS vs LHP, the rest of the Oakland lineup is severely compromised. A spreading stomach illness has affected three Athletics players in three days, including Nick Kurtz, who remains day-to-day and is likely playing at less than full strength. When the starting pitchers exit, the discrepancy only grows. Detroit's high-leverage bullpen is fully rested, with Kenley Jansen (10 SV, 4.98 ERA) and Kyle Finnegan (10 HLD, 2.18 ERA) fresh and ready after yesterday's low-stress 6-1 win. Oakland's relief corps is heavily taxed and ranks 29th in MLB with a 5.10 ERA. With the weather showing a high risk of thunderstorms that could shorten the starters' nights, having an elite, rested bullpen and a highly efficient ground-ball pitcher like Valdez makes the Tigers at -124 an absolute steal on the moneyline.

The decisive factor tonight is Oakland's fresh, last-minute rotation change, pivoting to Jack Perkins (2-4, 6.75 ERA) instead of Jose Suarez. Perkins relies heavily on his four-seam fastball at 37% usage, a pitch that Detroit's top lefties, Riley Greene (.308 AVG, .882 OPS vs RHP) and Kevin McGonigle (.290 AVG, .848 OPS vs RHP), both handle exceptionally well, posting xwOBAs above .369 against it. On the other side, Detroit rolls with Framber Valdez (4-6, 4.29 ERA, 1.38 WHIP), whose elite 1.27 GO/AO ratio is backed by a Tigers infield that ranks as the 5th-best defensive unit in MLB. While Oakland's Shea Langeliers represents a real threat against Valdez's 46.5% sinker usage with his .327 AVG and 1.011 OPS vs LHP, the rest of the Oakland lineup is severely compromised. A spreading stomach illness has affected three Athletics players in three days, including Nick Kurtz, who remains day-to-day and is likely playing at less than full strength.

When the starting pitchers exit, the discrepancy only grows. Detroit's high-leverage bullpen is fully rested, with Kenley Jansen (10 SV, 4.98 ERA) and Kyle Finnegan (10 HLD, 2.18 ERA) fresh and ready after yesterday's low-stress 6-1 win. Oakland's relief corps is heavily taxed and ranks 29th in MLB with a 5.10 ERA. With the weather showing a high risk of thunderstorms that could shorten the starters' nights, having an elite, rested bullpen and a highly efficient ground-ball pitcher like Valdez makes the Tigers at -124 an absolute steal on the moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Marlins· -130

It is a humid Thursday evening in Miami, but the temperature is a controlled seventy-two degrees inside loanDepot park as the Seattle Mariners look to salvage a win against the surging Miami Marlins. While Miami is riding a five-game winning streak and looking for the sweep, tonight’s matchup offers a massive pitching mismatch that makes the visiting Mariners at a modest price the smartest play on the board. The pitching discrepancy is as stark as it gets. Bryce Miller takes the mound for Seattle boasting a 4-2 record, a 1.71 ERA, and an incredible 0.66 WHIP, backed by an elite 2.09 xERA. Miller has been exceptionally stingy, allowing a .152 average to left-handed hitters and a .180 average to right-handed hitters, while walking only 5 batters in 52.2 innings. In contrast, Miami is activating Janson Junk from the injured list to make his first start since May. Junk enters with a 4.80 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a massive platoon vulnerability, allowing a .329 average and an .889 OPS to left-handed hitters. Seattle's lineup features seven bats that hit from the left side, including Dominic Canzone, Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, and Luke Raley, giving them a perfect structural setup to hammer Junk’s splits. Crucially, the late-game advantages reside entirely in the visitors' dugout due to several fresh roster developments. Miami placed outfielder Owen Caissie and high-leverage reliever John King on the injured list today. King’s absence leaves a gaping hole in a Marlins bullpen that is already heavily taxed, with closer Pete Fairbanks having pitched in two straight games and three of the last four. Meanwhile, Seattle boasts a rest advantage and a top-tier relief unit featuring a 3.55 ERA, anchored by Andrés Muñoz, who has not thrown a pitch since July 2. Backing a dominant Bryce Miller and a fresh bullpen against a returning starter and a depleted Marlins relief group is a calculated bet I will gladly make at this price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Reds· -104

We’ve got a sweltering summer evening in Cincinnati as the Phillies and Reds prepare to lock horns at Great American Ball Park in what shapes up to be a highly combustible environment. With a first-pitch temperature of 88 degrees, a six-mile-per-hour wind blowing out to left field, and a notorious hitter-friendly umpire like Mike Estabrook behind the plate, the conditions are perfectly aligned for an offensive explosion. My read is that this environment is going to absolutely chew up Cincinnati starter Brady Singer, who brings a shaky 5.03 ERA and a 5.56 xERA into this matchup. Singer has struggled immensely with a 10.9% barrel rate and a fly-ball lean represented by his 0.87 GO/AO ratio, making him a prime target to get launched out of this tiny ballpark tonight. The structural mismatch here is a total nightmare for Singer, who relies on his Sinker 47% of the time. The Phillies are rolling out six lefties tonight who absolutely feast on that pitch. Kyle Schwarber boasts a massive .472 xwOBA and an .804 SLG against sinkers, Brandon Marsh slugs .588 against them, and Bryson Stott—who was just bumped up to the clean-up spot—carries a career .600 average (3-for-5) against Singer. To make things worse for the home side, the Reds just lost a crucial piece of their right-handed counter-attack with Matt McLain scratched today due to a calf issue. Without McLain’s bat in the lineup, Cincinnati has a much steeper hill to climb against Philadelphia’s starting left-hander, Jesús Luzardo, who is an elite pitcher masquerading under a 3.75 ERA with a stellar 3.05 xERA and a dominant 10.9 K/9. Now, the Reds do have a fresher bullpen, and the Phillies are dealing with a fresh injury to reliever Tanner Banks, but the starting pitching disparity and the platoon mismatch are too wide to ignore here. Even if Philadelphia's taxed middle relief yields a couple of late runs, their offense is primed to build a massive early cushion against Singer. With Jhoan Duran and his elite 1.47 ERA and 22 saves waiting in the wings to lock down the ninth, the Phillies are positioned to completely run away with this game. At nearly even money, taking the Phillies to cover the run line in a hitter's park is the sharpest bet on the board tonight.

The structural mismatch here is a total nightmare for Singer, who relies on his Sinker 47% of the time. The Phillies are rolling out six lefties tonight who absolutely feast on that pitch. Kyle Schwarber boasts a massive .472 xwOBA and an .804 SLG against sinkers, Brandon Marsh slugs .588 against them, and Bryson Stott—who was just bumped up to the clean-up spot—carries a career .600 average (3-for-5) against Singer. To make things worse for the home side, the Reds just lost a crucial piece of their right-handed counter-attack with Matt McLain scratched today due to a calf issue. Without McLain’s bat in the lineup, Cincinnati has a much steeper hill to climb against Philadelphia’s starting left-hander, Jesús Luzardo, who is an elite pitcher masquerading under a 3.75 ERA with a stellar 3.05 xERA and a dominant 10.9 K/9.

Now, the Reds do have a fresher bullpen, and the Phillies are dealing with a fresh injury to reliever Tanner Banks, but the starting pitching disparity and the platoon mismatch are too wide to ignore here. Even if Philadelphia's taxed middle relief yields a couple of late runs, their offense is primed to build a massive early cushion against Singer. With Jhoan Duran and his elite 1.47 ERA and 22 saves waiting in the wings to lock down the ninth, the Phillies are positioned to completely run away with this game. At nearly even money, taking the Phillies to cover the run line in a hitter's park is the sharpest bet on the board tonight.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cardinals· -134

Busch Stadium is baking under a thick blanket of 91°F heat tonight as the Milwaukee Brewers roll into St. Louis to face their division rivals under overcast skies with the wind blowing out toward right field. It is a sticky, high-carry evening that could make for some fireworks, but when you look closely at the pitching matchups and bullpen depth, the value is clearly sitting with the road team. First, let's talk about the pitching matchup. St. Louis is trotting out Andre Pallante, who has really struggled on his home bump this season with a 4.47 home ERA compared to his stellar 2.33 ERA on the road. The Brewers' hitters have absolutely owned Pallante in their careers. Jackson Chourio is hitting .600 against him with three hits and five walks in just five official at-bats, good for a massive 1.727 OPS. Brice Turang is hitting .385 in thirteen at-bats, and Garrett Mitchell is hitting .400. Once these speedsters get on base, they can run at will because Cardinals catcher Ivan Herrera is a massive defensive liability, going 0-for-20 on caught-stealing attempts this season with a bottom-tier 2.05-second pop time. On the other side, Milwaukee starter Logan Henderson is returning from a six-week IL stint with a 2.74 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. While his extreme fly-ball profile (0.20 GO/AO) is a bit nerve-wracking in this heat, he is uniquely suited to neutralize this St. Louis lineup. Henderson holding left-handed hitters to a .183 average and .534 OPS this year aligns perfectly against a Cardinals lineup featuring five left-handed starters. The real separator tonight, however, is the state of the two bullpens. Thanks to Milwaukee’s starters eating up massive frames in yesterday’s doubleheader, their elite back-end relief arms are completely rested. Closer Trevor Megill, with his 14 saves and 3.00 ERA, and setup man Abner Uribe (2.70 ERA) haven't pitched in two days and are fully fresh. Contrast that with a taxed St. Louis bullpen where primary setup man JoJo Romero (3.89 ERA) is coming off back-to-back appearances where he threw 36 pitches, closer Riley O'Brien (22 SV, 3.62 ERA) worked yesterday, and Ryne Stanek (4.93 ERA) is day-to-day with a fresh ankle injury. If Milwaukee knocks Pallante out early—which history suggests they can—they can coast behind a rested, elite bullpen. At -134, the Brewers are a fantastic bet to take care of business on the road.

First, let's talk about the pitching matchup. St. Louis is trotting out Andre Pallante, who has really struggled on his home bump this season with a 4.47 home ERA compared to his stellar 2.33 ERA on the road. The Brewers' hitters have absolutely owned Pallante in their careers. Jackson Chourio is hitting .600 against him with three hits and five walks in just five official at-bats, good for a massive 1.727 OPS. Brice Turang is hitting .385 in thirteen at-bats, and Garrett Mitchell is hitting .400. Once these speedsters get on base, they can run at will because Cardinals catcher Ivan Herrera is a massive defensive liability, going 0-for-20 on caught-stealing attempts this season with a bottom-tier 2.05-second pop time. On the other side, Milwaukee starter Logan Henderson is returning from a six-week IL stint with a 2.74 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. While his extreme fly-ball profile (0.20 GO/AO) is a bit nerve-wracking in this heat, he is uniquely suited to neutralize this St. Louis lineup. Henderson holding left-handed hitters to a .183 average and .534 OPS this year aligns perfectly against a Cardinals lineup featuring five left-handed starters.

The real separator tonight, however, is the state of the two bullpens. Thanks to Milwaukee’s starters eating up massive frames in yesterday’s doubleheader, their elite back-end relief arms are completely rested. Closer Trevor Megill, with his 14 saves and 3.00 ERA, and setup man Abner Uribe (2.70 ERA) haven't pitched in two days and are fully fresh. Contrast that with a taxed St. Louis bullpen where primary setup man JoJo Romero (3.89 ERA) is coming off back-to-back appearances where he threw 36 pitches, closer Riley O'Brien (22 SV, 3.62 ERA) worked yesterday, and Ryne Stanek (4.93 ERA) is day-to-day with a fresh ankle injury. If Milwaukee knocks Pallante out early—which history suggests they can—they can coast behind a rested, elite bullpen. At -134, the Brewers are a fantastic bet to take care of business on the road.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Rangers· +112

We’ve got a division clash in Arlington tonight as the Angels look to carry the momentum of yesterday’s blowout into the series finale against the Rangers at Globe Life Field. The public is laying juice on the home side, but the sharp play sits with the underdog visitors. This matchup hinges on a starting pitching dynamic where the market has simply priced the wrong numbers, overvaluing season ERAs while ignoring elite individual matchup histories and extreme underlying metrics. Reid Detmers takes the mound for the Angels, and while his 4.13 surface ERA doesn't immediately turn heads, his 3.19 expected ERA (xERA) reveals he is pitching at an elite level with massive positive regression on the horizon. Detmers steps into this game under his absolute best operational conditions, carrying a 3.42 ERA in away games and a 3.69 ERA at night. More importantly, he has historically owned the core of this Texas lineup. Rangers third baseman Josh Jung is completely winless against him, going 0-for-11 with 6 strikeouts in career matchups, while shortstop Ezequiel Duran is a mere 1-for-15 with 7 strikeouts. Detmers' ability to dominate these crucial bats gives the Angels a distinct tactical edge from the very first pitch. On the other side, Nathan Eovaldi is more vulnerable than his 4.02 ERA suggests, especially when pitching at Globe Life Field where his home ERA climbs to 4.62. He faces an Angels offense that is currently firing on all cylinders, boasting a .351 xwOBA over their last three games and fresh off a 13-1 blowout. With Mike Trout back in the lineup and already homering in his first game back, the Angels have the emotional and statistical momentum to disrupt Eovaldi early. Getting a highly motivated Angels squad with a starting pitcher primed for positive regression at +112 is the exact kind of plus-money value we look for. Let's ride the Angels on the moneyline to take this series finale.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Diamondbacks· -130

We are live from Petco Park under clear skies as the San Diego Padres look to secure a series victory against their National League West rivals, the Arizona Diamondbacks. At first glance, this pitching matchup looks like a battle of struggling righties, but the underlying metrics reveal a massive divergence in true quality. San Diego's Griffin Canning enters with a bloated 6.71 ERA, yet his 4.81 xERA suggests he is prime for significant positive regression tonight. Canning is still missing bats at a solid clip with an 8.8 K/9 and limiting hard contact to a 9.7% barrel rate. Conversely, Arizona's Merrill Kelly has been pitching on borrowed time all season, carrying a 5.71 ERA despite a historically bad 7.78 xERA and an alarming .412 xwOBA allowed. Kelly is registering just 5.5 K/9 while yielding a dangerous 14.5% barrel rate, meaning he is constantly putting himself in harm's way against a potent offense. The tactical matchup heavily favors San Diego's left-handed bats against Kelly's severe platoon vulnerabilities. Kelly has been shredded by left-handed hitters this year, allowing a .289 batting average, a massive .934 OPS, and 12 of his 19 home runs on the season. This is a dream scenario for Padres lefties like Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, and Gavin Sheets. Sheets in particular matches up beautifully with Kelly's primary fastball and sinker arsenal, carrying a .402 xwOBA against four-seamers and a .419 xwOBA against sinkers. With the wind blowing out at 8 mph to center field, Kelly's extreme fly-ball profile and high barrel rate allowed are a recipe for disaster against a Padres lineup that has already put up 14 runs over the last two games. While Arizona does possess a deeper middle bullpen, the Padres have the ultimate late-game eraser in closer Mason Miller, who boasts a pristine 0.96 ERA and is a perfect 23-for-23 in save opportunities. San Diego has established clear momentum in this series, bouncing back from an opening shutout to dominant wins of 4-1 and 10-4. Back at home, where they are 25-22, the Padres are facing a Diamondbacks team that has consistently struggled on the road (18-27) and has a poor 16-36 mark against opponents with a .500 or better record. At a very reasonable -130 price tag on the moneyline, we are backing the much stronger starting pitching profile and the hot-hand Padres to finish off the series on a high note.

The tactical matchup heavily favors San Diego's left-handed bats against Kelly's severe platoon vulnerabilities. Kelly has been shredded by left-handed hitters this year, allowing a .289 batting average, a massive .934 OPS, and 12 of his 19 home runs on the season. This is a dream scenario for Padres lefties like Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, and Gavin Sheets. Sheets in particular matches up beautifully with Kelly's primary fastball and sinker arsenal, carrying a .402 xwOBA against four-seamers and a .419 xwOBA against sinkers. With the wind blowing out at 8 mph to center field, Kelly's extreme fly-ball profile and high barrel rate allowed are a recipe for disaster against a Padres lineup that has already put up 14 runs over the last two games.

While Arizona does possess a deeper middle bullpen, the Padres have the ultimate late-game eraser in closer Mason Miller, who boasts a pristine 0.96 ERA and is a perfect 23-for-23 in save opportunities. San Diego has established clear momentum in this series, bouncing back from an opening shutout to dominant wins of 4-1 and 10-4. Back at home, where they are 25-22, the Padres are facing a Diamondbacks team that has consistently struggled on the road (18-27) and has a poor 16-36 mark against opponents with a .500 or better record. At a very reasonable -130 price tag on the moneyline, we are backing the much stronger starting pitching profile and the hot-hand Padres to finish off the series on a high note.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Giants· +108

Night falls over Oracle Park as the Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants kick off a crucial NL West matchup under the Bay Area lights. This division battle presents a massive opportunity to grab value on the visitors, who enter with significantly better baseline momentum than the host Giants. Colorado has played highly competitive baseball lately, outscoring opponents by 9 runs over their last 10 games, including playing three straight one-run games against the division-leading Dodgers. Conversely, San Francisco has struggled mightily of late, being outscored by 22 runs over their last 10 games and coming off consecutive blowout losses to Toronto by a combined score of 19-3. The pitching matchup heavily favors the Rockies when adjusting for situational environment. Ryan Feltner takes the mound for Colorado, and while his overall 4.27 ERA sits below his 4.91 xERA, he has been exceptionally consistent under the lights. Feltner owns a stellar 3.66 ERA over 46.2 night innings compared to a 6.57 ERA during the day, making tonight's 9:45 PM ET start his ideal setting. He faces a Giants team that is forced to start left-hander Carson Whisenhunt, recalled today from Triple-A Sacramento. Whisenhunt has pitched only 5.0 innings in the majors this season, posting a 3.60 ERA but with a highly vulnerable 1.60 WHIP, a 4.49 xERA, and an extreme fly-ball profile (0.63 GO/AO) that relies on a defense missing elite coverage. Roster changes over the last 24 to 48 hours swing the advantage further toward Colorado. The Rockies welcome back their premier power hitter, Hunter Goodman, who returns to the lineup tonight to bat cleanup. Goodman leads Colorado with 27 home runs and carries a punishing .944 night OPS. In contrast, the Giants' lineup took a fresh hit yesterday when outfielder Jonah Cox was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left oblique strain. This adds to a depleted San Francisco offense that must rely on inexperienced depth in Drew Gilbert and Danny Cavanaugh. With Colorado trending upward and bringing back their primary power threat, backing the Rockies at a plus-money price of +108 is the sharpest play on tonight's board.

The pitching matchup heavily favors the Rockies when adjusting for situational environment. Ryan Feltner takes the mound for Colorado, and while his overall 4.27 ERA sits below his 4.91 xERA, he has been exceptionally consistent under the lights. Feltner owns a stellar 3.66 ERA over 46.2 night innings compared to a 6.57 ERA during the day, making tonight's 9:45 PM ET start his ideal setting. He faces a Giants team that is forced to start left-hander Carson Whisenhunt, recalled today from Triple-A Sacramento. Whisenhunt has pitched only 5.0 innings in the majors this season, posting a 3.60 ERA but with a highly vulnerable 1.60 WHIP, a 4.49 xERA, and an extreme fly-ball profile (0.63 GO/AO) that relies on a defense missing elite coverage.

Roster changes over the last 24 to 48 hours swing the advantage further toward Colorado. The Rockies welcome back their premier power hitter, Hunter Goodman, who returns to the lineup tonight to bat cleanup. Goodman leads Colorado with 27 home runs and carries a punishing .944 night OPS. In contrast, the Giants' lineup took a fresh hit yesterday when outfielder Jonah Cox was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left oblique strain. This adds to a depleted San Francisco offense that must rely on inexperienced depth in Drew Gilbert and Danny Cavanaugh. With Colorado trending upward and bringing back their primary power threat, backing the Rockies at a plus-money price of +108 is the sharpest play on tonight's board.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

MATT OLSONTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBBraves· -115

Mitch Keller is a pitcher living on borrowed time. While his 5.02 ERA is already unsightly, his 5.38 xERA suggests he's actually been fortunate to avoid even more damage. Today, he faces a Braves lineup stacked with six left-handed hitters specifically designed to exploit his primary weakness: Keller allows a .283 average and an .832 OPS to left-handed bats. Matt Olson has found his power stroke recently, clubbing 4 home runs over his last 10 games. With temperatures expected to reach 90 degrees at PNC Park, the air will be thin and the ball will carry. Olson only needs one gapper or a pull-side blast to clear this line, and given Keller's tendency to allow contact to lefties, the volume of opportunity for a multi-base hit is high. The primary risk is Olson's volatility and strikeout rate, but Keller's low strikeout profile (6.6 K/9) suggests Olson will have plenty of chances to put the ball in play in a hitter-friendly environment.

GARY'S PICK

ESMERLYN VALDEZTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBPirates· +130

This play exploits Bryce Elder's pronounced reverse platoon splits. While traditional wisdom favors the pitcher in right-on-right matchups, Elder has struggled significantly against right-handed hitters, allowing a .300 batting average this season. Esmerlyn Valdez is currently the hottest hitter in the Pirates' lineup, hitting .375 over his last 10 games with home runs in consecutive contests. The environmental factors at PNC Park today are perfect for Valdez: he is a pull-heavy right-handed hitter, and the wind is blowing out to his pull side (left field) in 90-degree heat. Elder's tendency to allow fly balls (0.90 GO/AO) combined with Valdez's current form makes a multi-hit game or an extra-base hit a high-probability outcome. The risk is Valdez's strikeout rate, but against an Elder sinker that has been hittable for righties, the edge is clear.

THE LONG SHOT

MATT OLSONHR OVER 0.5

MLBBraves· +285

Matt Olson enters this matinee in peak power form, having launched four home runs over his last ten games. He draws a matchup against Mitch Keller, who has been exceptionally vulnerable to left-handed power this season; a staggering 83% of the home runs Keller has surrendered (10 of 12) have been hit by lefties. Olson has done the bulk of his damage against right-handed pitching this year (15 HR, .906 OPS) and is well-positioned to take advantage of Keller's recent struggle to miss bats (only 1 K in his last start). The weather conditions at PNC Park are also ideal for hitters, with temperatures reaching 90°F and wind blowing out, which should help fly balls carry in a park that typically suppresses them.

THE LONG SHOT

BRANDON LOWEHR OVER 0.5

MLBPirates· +340

While Bryce Elder has respectable season-long splits against left-handed hitters, his recent performance indicates a pitcher who has lost his command entirely. Elder has been torched for 19 earned runs over his last three starts, struggling to get through the 5th inning in any of them. Brandon Lowe provides the most consistent power threat in the Pirates' lineup with 21 home runs, and batting in the second spot ensures he will see Elder at least three times before the bullpen takes over. In 90-degree heat with the ball traveling further, Lowe’s ability to punish mistakes in the zone is heightened, especially against a pitcher currently yielding high-quality contact at an alarming rate.

GARY'S PICK

JUAN SOTOWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBMets· -137

Juan Soto's plate discipline remains the highest floor in the game. He has drawn 13 walks in his last 10 games, clearing this 0.5 walk line in 70% of those contests. Today he faces Michael Wacha, who is a control specialist but faces a dangerous environment with the wind howling out to left field. Even though Wacha limits walks on the season, the weather conditions and Soto's elite 20-homer power make him a prime candidate for a 'pitch-around' scenario if he gets ahead in the count. Soto's ability to spoil tough pitches and refuse to chase outside the zone is unmatched, and hitting second behind A.J. Ewing ensures he will see high-leverage plate appearances where the Royals may prefer to face Bo Bichette or Carson Benge rather than risk a multi-run blast from Soto. Given his current 10-game clip of 1.3 walks per game, the odds at -137 are not adequately pricing his current efficiency in reaching base via the free pass.

GARY'S PICK

LANE THOMASH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBRoyals· -120

Lane Thomas is in an ideal situational spot as the Royals' leadoff hitter today. He faces left-hander Sean Manaea, who has struggled significantly against right-handed hitters this season, surrendering a .276 average and an .867 OPS. Thomas himself performs better against lefties, hitting .270 compared to his .200 mark against righties. His recent production is very high; he has hits in five straight games and has cleared this 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs line in four of those five outings. With temperatures at 84 degrees and a 13-mph wind blowing straight out to left field, Thomas is well-positioned to contribute early in the game as a right-handed pull hitter. His volume is secure at the top of the order, and the Royals' need to bounce back after a late-inning collapse yesterday should keep him aggressive in hitters' counts.

GARY'S PICK

YANDY DIAZSINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBRays· -160

Yandy Diaz is the engine of a Rays offense that has been nearly unbeatable at Tropicana Field (33-13). As a .327 hitter with elite contact skills, Diaz is a nightmare matchup for a Yankees pitching staff that is forced into a 'bullpen game' tonight due to rotation injuries. The Yankees' bullpen is already under 'heavy pressure' following the first three games of the series, and Diaz should see 4-5 plate appearances as the leadoff hitter to find his mark. While his multi-hit odds are always tempting, his singles floor is incredibly high; he has recorded at least one single in 70% of his last 10 games. Against a rotation of relievers that may include the soft-tossing Ryan Yarbrough, Diaz's ability to spray the ball across the field makes him the most reliable bet on the board to find first base via a base knock.

GARY'S PICK

CARSON KELLYH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBChicago Cubs· -125

Carson Kelly has been the Cubs' most effective weapon against left-handed pitching this season, boasting a .333 average and a massive .970 OPS in that split. Today he faces Trevor Rogers, who, despite his recent hot streak, has struggled significantly more against right-handed bats (.278 AVG allowed) than lefties (.171). Kelly is slated to bat 4th as the DH, placing him in a prime run-producing spot in the order. With 86-degree temperatures and wind blowing out to Left Field at Camden Yards, Kelly's profile as a right-handed power hitter matches up perfectly with the environmental boost. He has cleared this 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs line in three of his last four starts, and the Cubs' overall offensive momentum (8-2 in L10) should provide ample opportunities for him to contribute to the box score.

GARY'S PICK

KODY CLEMENSH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBTwins· -115

Kody Clemens is currently the hottest bat in the Twins lineup, stepping up significantly in the absence of Byron Buxton. Over his last five games, Clemens has not only hit safely in four of them but has produced multi-hit efforts in all four of those contests, totaling nine hits and seven RBIs in that span. While Gavin Williams is a formidable strikeout pitcher (10.4 K/9), his primary weakness has been the long ball against left-handed bats, allowing 10 home runs to LHB compared to just 6 to RHH. Clemens, batting 3rd, will see maximum plate appearances and consistently finds himself in run-producing situations. Given his current 5-game RBI streak and his 16 home runs on the season, he has multiple paths to clearing this 1.5 line.

GARY'S PICK

CEDDANNE RAFAELAH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBRed Sox· -137

Ceddanne Rafaela is the heartbeat of this Red Sox lineup right now, hitting .318 over his last 10 games and clearing this 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs line in five consecutive contests. Today he faces left-hander Anthony Kay, whose season splits reveal a significant vulnerability to right-handed hitters; Kay allows a .288 batting average and .845 OPS to righties, compared to just .180 and .569 against lefties. Rafaela is locked into the #2 spot in the order, providing maximum opportunity for plate appearances in a game where Boston is looking to complete a sweep. With a hitter-friendly 1.04 park factor at Guaranteed Rate Field and 10 mph winds blowing out toward left field, the environment is perfectly suited for Rafaela to extend his production streak.

GARY'S PICK

KYLIAN MBAPPÉSHOTS OVER 4.5

WCFrance· -114

**ROLE & MINUTES:** Mbappé is the starting left-sided forward and the focal point of the French attack, expected to play the full 90 minutes. **THE KEY FACTOR:** France dominates possession (62.67%) and shot volume (19.17/gm). Mbappé is the primary transition threat and the designated finisher. Morocco’s defensive structure, while elite (0.7 xGA/gm), typically employs a deep block that invites shots from the perimeter—exactly where Mbappé operates when cutting inside. **VOLUME / IMPLIED CHECK:** Mbappé is averaging 4.8 shots per match in this tournament cycle, giving us a buffer over the 4.5 line. At -114, the market implies a 53.3% chance he hits this mark; given his current usage rate and France's offensive dominance, his actual probability of clearing this volume is significantly higher. **THE RISK:** The primary risk is a tactical masterclass from Achraf Hakimi, who as Mbappé's club teammate, understands his tendencies better than any other defender in the tournament. High heat (88°F) could also lead to a more lethargic pace if France finds an early lead.

GARY'S PICK

MICHAEL OLISEASSISTS OVER 1

WCFrance· +240

**ROLE & MINUTES:** Olise is the starting creative playmaker in Didier Deschamps' midfield, responsible for set-piece delivery and linking the pivot to the front three. **THE KEY FACTOR:** Olise has been the tournament's most consistent creator, tallying 5 assists in 5 matches. With Morocco likely to double-team Mbappé and focus on the width of Dembélé, Olise often finds pockets of space in the half-spaces to deliver the final ball. France’s high goal-scoring rate (2.8/gm) provides multiple opportunities for an assist to materialize. **VOLUME / IMPLIED CHECK:** The line is set at 1 assist with +240 odds, requiring only a 29.4% probability to break even. Olise has hit this mark in nearly every match this tournament, making the +240 price an extraordinary value for a player currently averaging 1.0 assists per game. **THE RISK:** Morocco's defense is excellent at neutralizing crosses and central through-balls. If Morocco successfully drags France into a low-scoring, physical battle, the total goal count may not be high enough to guarantee an Olise contribution. Additionally, a yellow card (which would suspend him for the next match) might see him subbed early if the game is in hand.

GARY'S PICK

RILEY GREENEH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBTigers· -125

Riley Greene is the engine of a Tigers offense that has scored 6+ runs in four consecutive games. Tonight he faces a favorable matchup in Jack Perkins, who stepped into the rotation with a 6.75 ERA and a high 1.70 WHIP. Greene excels against right-handed pitching, posting a .308 average and 11 of his 13 home runs against them this year. With Kevin McGonigle and Matt Vierling setting the table in front of him, Greene's 4-hole spot in the lineup maximizes his opportunities for RBIs and runs. Furthermore, the Oakland bullpen is heavily taxed and ranks 29th in MLB with a 5.10 ERA, meaning even if Perkins exits early, the scoring environment remains high. The wind blowing out at 9 mph to left-center further aids Greene's power profile.

GARY'S PICK

SHEA LANGELIERSTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBAthletics· +100

While Shea Langeliers' overall average of .261 is modest, he transforms into an elite hitter when facing left-handed pitching, slashing .327/.402/1.011 against southpaws. Tonight he matches up against Framber Valdez, who has struggled significantly in his last two outings, surrendering 11 hits and 9 earned runs. Langeliers is batting third tonight, ensuring he sees Valdez multiple times. Given his power profile—20 home runs and 10 doubles on the season—he only needs one extra-base hit or two singles to clear this line. Despite a minor thumb injury, his production against lefties is too consistent to ignore in a matchup where the opposing starter is trending downward.

GARY'S PICK

DOMINIC CANZONEH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBMariners· -128

This is a target-rich environment for Seattle's left-handed hitters. Janson Junk has been statistically vulnerable to lefties this season, surrendering a massive .329 batting average and nearly a .900 OPS to the platoon. Canzone has been officially moved into a full-time middle-of-the-order role by Mariners management, and batting 3rd ensures he will see max volume (4-5 plate appearances) against a pitcher who allows hard contact at a 41.6% clip. While Canzone's batting average has dipped recently, his 14 home runs demonstrate the extra-base upside required to clear this line with a single swing. Against a pitcher returning from the IL who struggled with command and power prevention prior to his stint, Canzone is in a prime position to produce.

GARY'S PICK

KYLE SCHWARBERH+R+RBI OVER 2.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· -115

Kyle Schwarber enters Great American Ball Park—a venue where he has posted a massive 1.569 OPS this season—facing a starting pitcher in Brady Singer who has been dismantled by left-handed power. Singer’s platoon splits are among the worst in the league, allowing a .910 OPS and 14 of his 20 home runs to lefties. Schwarber is already in elite form with 32 home runs and a .945 OPS on the season, and he has homered twice in his last five games. The environmental factors tonight are a perfect storm: 87°F heat and wind blowing out 6 mph to left field in a park that already inflates home run production. With Singer allowing a high 10.9% barrel rate and a low 0.87 GO/AO ratio (leaning fly-ball), Schwarber is primed to clear this total with a single swing or multiple run-producing opportunities hitting second in the order.

GARY'S PICK

BRYSON STOTTH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· -122

Bryson Stott receives a significant situational upgrade tonight, as breaking news indicates he will move up to the cleanup (#4) spot in the Phillies' order. This placement puts him directly behind high-OBP and power threats Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, maximizing his opportunities for both RBIs and runs scored. Stott has been exceptionally consistent at the plate recently, batting .308 over his last 10 games with five multi-hit performances in that span. He faces Brady Singer, whose 1.54 WHIP and .300 average allowed to lefties suggest there will be constant traffic on the bases for Stott to capitalize on. In a park that rewards contact and power alike, and hitting in the heart of an order against a struggling right-hander, Stott has a very high floor for total production tonight.

GARY'S PICK

JORDAN WALKERH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBCardinals· -103

This is a premier situational matchup for Jordan Walker. He is currently the hottest hitter in the St. Louis lineup, batting .333 with 12 RBIs over his last 10 games. Tonight he faces Logan Henderson, who is returning from a six-week layoff due to a back injury. Henderson is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a GO/AO ratio of 0.20, which is highly dangerous in tonight's weather conditions—91-degree heat and high humidity will cause the ball to carry significantly more. Furthermore, Henderson has a pronounced platoon split, allowing a .292 average to right-handed hitters like Walker compared to just .183 against lefties. Batting cleanup, Walker should have multiple opportunities with runners on base to clear this line with a single extra-base hit or a combination of a hit and an RBI.

GARY'S PICK

BRICE TURANGH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBBrewers· -137

Brice Turang has been the picture of consistency for Milwaukee, recording a hit in 90% of his last 10 games. Batting in the third spot in the order, he is guaranteed high volume and plate appearances in scoring situations. He matches up against Andre Pallante, who has struggled significantly at Busch Stadium this season with a 4.47 ERA. While Pallante is a ground-ball specialist, Turang's elite speed allows him to turn routine grounders into infield hits, providing a high floor for his offensive production. Given Turang's .299 average against righties and his role as a primary run-producer (54 RBIs) and run-scorer (63 runs) for the Brewers, clearing the 1.5 HRR threshold is well within his nightly baseline, especially in a hitter-friendly 91-degree environment.

GARY'S PICK

WYATT LANGFORDHITS OVER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· -180

Wyatt Langford is in the middle of a massive hot streak, recording at least one hit in nine of his last ten games while batting .405 over that stretch. He faces Reid Detmers tonight, a pitcher he has already found success against with a home run in just five career at-bats. While Langford's season average against lefties (.256) is slightly lower than against righties, his current form is undeniable, and his position batting second in the lineup ensures he will see the maximum number of opportunities to extend his run. Detmers is a fly-ball-heavy pitcher (0.63 GO/AO), which suits Langford's recent power-hitting profile well.

GARY'S PICK

JUSTIN FOSCUEHITS OVER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· -163

Justin Foscue is the ideal platoon target tonight against southpaw Reid Detmers. Foscue has feasted on left-handed pitching this season, posting a .348 average and a 1.162 OPS in that split. As the Rangers' leadoff hitter, he carries the highest volume floor on the team, virtually guaranteeing him four to five plate appearances to record a single hit. While Detmers is generally effective against right-handed hitters, Foscue's high-contact approach and specific success against lefties make this line look undervalued given his primary role as a southpaw-specialist at the top of the Texas order.

THE LONG SHOT

KYLE SCHWARBERHR OVER 0.5

MLBPhillies· +188

The environment in Cincinnati tonight is a dream scenario for Kyle Schwarber. Great American Ball Park is already the most home-run-prone venue in the league, and with temperatures expected to hit 88 degrees and wind blowing out toward left field, the ball will be flying. Schwarber enters this game having homered in back-to-back games in this stadium, showcasing a comfort level in the batter's box that aligns with his 32-home-run season baseline. The matchup against Brady Singer is the decisive factor; Singer has been systematically dismantled by left-handed hitters this season, surrendering 14 home runs and a massive .910 OPS to the platoon. Given Schwarber's recent power surge and Singer's inability to keep the ball in the yard against lefties, the Over is the high-conviction play.

THE LONG SHOT

BRYCE HARPERHR OVER 0.5

MLBPhillies· +340

While Bryce Harper has been in a statistical funk lately, hitting just .143 over his last 10 games, this matchup is designed for a breakout. Harper remains one of the premier power threats against right-handed pitching, sporting a 1.022 OPS and 17 home runs against righties this season. He faces a pitcher in Brady Singer who allows a home run to a left-handed batter roughly every 15 at-bats. In a park as small as Cincinnati's with the wind blowing out, Harper only needs to find one mistake from Singer's 91-mph sinker to clear the fence. At +340 odds, the market is overreacting to a brief slump and ignoring the fundamental elite matchup between Harper's platoon advantage and Singer's primary season-long weakness.

GARY'S PICK

KETEL MARTEH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBDiamondbacks· -135

Ketel Marte is currently the most dangerous hitter in the Diamondbacks' lineup, and tonight he draws a matchup that perfectly suits his recent power surge. Griffin Canning has been an absolute sieve against left-handed hitting this season, surrendering a .930 OPS and all eight of his home runs to that side of the plate. Marte, a switch-hitter batting left tonight, has homered in three of his last four games and is hitting .308 over his last 10. Batting in the leadoff spot, he will receive maximum volume against a pitcher with a 1.61 WHIP who struggles to miss bats. Given the wind blowing out to center at Petco tonight and Canning's inability to keep the ball in the yard against lefties, Marte is in a prime position to clear this combined line through multiple hits or a single run-producing swing.

GARY'S PICK

JACKSON MERRILLH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBPadres· -142

Jackson Merrill enters this series finale in a strong 'get-right' spot batting second in the Padres' order. He faces Merrill Kelly, whose underlying metrics suggest he has been incredibly fortunate to maintain a 5.71 ERA; Kelly's 7.78 xERA is a massive red flag. Kelly has been dominated by left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .934 OPS. Furthermore, Kelly's 14.5% barrel rate allowed is among the highest for starters on this slate, indicating that when hitters make contact, it is frequently loud. Merrill has been productive lately, hitting .282 over his last 10 games with two home runs. Positioned between Tatis and the middle of the order, Merrill will have ample opportunities to either drive in runs or be driven in himself against a fly-ball pitcher vulnerable to left-handed contact.

GARY'S PICK

HUNTER GOODMANHITS OVER 0.5

MLBColorado Rockies· -200

This pick correlates directly with the Total Bases play. If Goodman is hitting the ball hard enough to challenge for extra bases against a rookie lefty who allows a .357 average to righties, the floor of a single hit is exceptionally safe. He has recorded at least one hit in 60% of his last 10 games and is currently seeing the ball as well as any hitter in the National League.

GARY'S PICK

LUIS ARRAEZHITS OVER 1.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· +170

The league's premier contact hitter is in elite form, batting .350 over his last 10 games with five multi-hit performances in that span. While Ryan Feltner has shown decent splits against lefties this season (.217 AVG), Arraez’s .325 average against right-handers and .329 mark at Oracle Park suggest he is the exception to the rule. Feltner's xERA of 4.91 indicates he has been fortunate and is due for regression in the hits department. Batting at the top of the order, Arraez should see at least 4-5 plate appearances, giving him ample opportunity to find the grass twice.

Research

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BULLPENCLE @ MIN
Cleveland Guardians pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Cleveland Guardians's bullpen has thrown 13 innings across their last 3 games, with 8 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
TEAM RECORDPHI @ CIN
Phillies 8-0 in Jesus Luzardo's last 8 starts
Phillies are 8-0 in Jesus Luzardo's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 8 in a row. He starts tonight.
PLATOON EDGELAA @ TEX
Justin Foscue (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Justin Foscue's vs. Left line (1.162 OPS, 46 AB) sits well above his .607 mark the other way (51 AB). Tonight's starter Reid Detmers throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-3, 6 TB, 1 BB
STARTER FORMATL @ PIT
Bryce Elder: 12.21 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 14 innings, 19 earned runs, 27 hits. That 12.21 ERA runs 8.2 over his 4.01 season number.
P 4 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
TEAM RECORDPHI @ CIN
Reds 1-7 in Brady Singer's last 8 starts
Reds are 1-7 in Brady Singer's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 3 in a row. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDKC @ NYM
Royals 1-7 in Michael Wacha's last 8 starts
Royals are 1-7 in Michael Wacha's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDMIL @ STL
Cardinals 7-1 in Andre Pallante's last 8 starts
Cardinals are 7-1 in Andre Pallante's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDNYY @ TB
Yankees 1-7 in Paul Blackburn's last 8 starts
Yankees are 1-7 in Paul Blackburn's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
COOLING OFFNYY @ TB
Cody Bellinger: .285 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Drew Rasmussen
Cody Bellinger's .285 OPS over the last 15 days (51 PA) trails his .753 season mark, down 0.468. Tonight he draws RHP Drew Rasmussen — his weaker side: a .751 OPS vs RHP across 214 AB.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADMIL @ STL
Brewers are 7-2 vs Cardinals this season
Brewers lead the season series 7-2 over Cardinals. STL took the last meeting 5-1 — a revenge spot.
HEAD-TO-HEADATL @ PIT
Braves are 7-2 vs Pirates this season
Braves lead the season series 7-2 over Pirates. ATL won the last meeting 3-0.
STREAKMAR @ FRA
France are unbeaten in 9 internationals
Across their last 5 World Cup matches they are 5-0-0 (W-W-W-W-W), carrying a 9-match unbeaten run into this fixture.
P team won 0-2
COOLING OFFOAK @ DET
Nick Kurtz: .469 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Framber Valdez
Nick Kurtz's .469 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .912 season mark, down 0.443. Tonight he draws LHP Framber Valdez — his weaker side: a .802 OPS vs LHP across 121 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COOLING OFFCOL @ SF
Casey Schmitt: .390 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Ryan Feltner
Casey Schmitt's .390 OPS over the last 15 days (53 PA) trails his .783 season mark, down 0.393. Tonight he draws RHP Ryan Feltner — his weaker side: a .765 OPS vs RHP across 240 AB.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ STL
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Logan Henderson (RHP)
Over 238 AB vs. Right, Alec Burleson owns a .953 OPS versus .497 in 108 AB the other way. He sees RHP Logan Henderson tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGECLE @ MIN
Travis Bazzana (bats L) hits 1st against Bailey Ober (RHP)
Over 145 AB vs. Right, Travis Bazzana owns a .866 OPS versus .525 in 83 AB the other way. He sees RHP Bailey Ober tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
PLATOON EDGESEA @ MIA
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 1st against Bryce Miller (RHP)
Over 229 AB vs. Right, Liam Hicks owns a .893 OPS versus .554 in 56 AB the other way. He sees RHP Bryce Miller tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
PLATOON EDGECHC @ BAL
Coby Mayo (bats R) gets a LHP from the 6th spot
Coby Mayo's vs. Left line (1.097 OPS, 68 AB) sits well above his .447 mark the other way (150 AB). Tonight's starter David Peterson throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGEPHI @ CIN
Spencer Steer (bats R) draws Jesus Luzardo (LHP), batting 4th
Spencer Steer carries a 1.078 OPS vs. Left (69 AB) against .642 the other way (233 AB), and faces LHP Jesus Luzardo from the 4th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
COOLING OFFKC @ NYM
Jac Caglianone: .413 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Sean Manaea
Jac Caglianone's .413 OPS over the last 15 days (50 PA) trails his .777 season mark, down 0.364. Tonight he draws LHP Sean Manaea — his weaker side: a .697 OPS vs LHP across 96 AB.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
PLATOON EDGEPHI @ CIN
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Bryce Harper's vs. Right line (1.022 OPS, 199 AB) sits well above his .658 mark the other way (127 AB). Tonight's starter Brady Singer throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TEAM RECORDKC @ NYM
Mets 2-6 in Sean Manaea's last 8 starts
Mets are 2-6 in Sean Manaea's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 3 in a row. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDOAK @ DET
Tigers 2-6 in Framber Valdez's last 8 starts
Tigers are 2-6 in Framber Valdez's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
HR THREATDiamondbacks @ Padres
Ketel Marte
Tonight's matchup features a perfect alignment between a hitter's peak form and a pitcher's catastrophic weakness. Griffin Canning has been fundamentally incapable of keeping the ball in the yard against left-handed hitting this season, surrendering 100% of his season home runs (8) to the left side of the plate.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
TEAM RECORDLAA @ TEX
Angels 6-2 in Reid Detmers's last 8 starts
Angels are 6-2 in Reid Detmers's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
HEAT CHECKCOL @ SF
Kyle Karros: 1.245 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (44 PA) he is at a 1.245 OPS, up 0.443 on his .802 season mark. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKCHC @ BAL
Dansby Swanson: 1.055 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 55 PA: a 1.055 OPS versus .717 for the season, 0.338 above his norm. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
COOLING OFFARI @ SD
Corbin Carroll: .497 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Griffin Canning
Corbin Carroll's .497 OPS over the last 15 days (48 PA) trails his .850 season mark, down 0.353. Tonight he draws RHP Griffin Canning — his weaker side: a .761 OPS vs RHP across 223 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEBOS @ CHW
Randal Grichuk (bats R) gets a LHP from the 2nd spot
Randal Grichuk's vs. Left line (.928 OPS, 83 AB) sits well above his .600 mark the other way (48 AB). Tonight's starter Patrick Sandoval throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKMIL @ STL
Garrett Mitchell: 1.275 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (42 PA) he is at a 1.275 OPS, up 0.444 on his .831 season mark. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
BULLPENBOS @ CHW
Chicago White Sox pen: 17.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Chicago White Sox's bullpen has thrown 17.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 2 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
BALLPARKCLE @ MIN
Bailey Ober owns a 2.79 ERA at Target Field — 7.66 everywhere else
Across 7 games (42 IP) at Target Field, Bailey Ober has a 2.79 ERA against 7.66 at his other parks (24.7 IP). Hitters bat .199 off him here.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
BULLPENKC @ NYM
New York Mets pen: 17.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
New York Mets's bullpen has thrown 17.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 2 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
SITUATIONALBOS @ CHW
CHW's bullpen has covered 17.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 17.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Erick Fedde (5.3) and Trevor Richards (3.7). BOS's pen has thrown 11.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 2-1
HR THREATYankees @ Rays
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero enters this matinee as the hottest power hitter in the league, carrying a three-game home run streak into Thursday. He has recorded 15 total bases over his last three games, demonstrating elite barrel consistency.
P 1 HR — 1-for-4, 4 TB
BULLPENKC @ NYM
Kansas City Royals pen: 15.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Kansas City Royals's bullpen has thrown 15.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
HR THREATPhillies @ Reds
Kyle Schwarber
The environment in Cincinnati tonight is a dream scenario for Kyle Schwarber. Great American Ball Park is already the most home-run-prone venue in the league, and with temperatures expected to hit 88 degrees and wind blowing out toward left field, the ball will be flying.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB
HR THREATBraves @ Pirates
Matt Olson
Matt Olson enters this matinee in peak power form, having launched four home runs over his last ten games. He draws a matchup against Mitch Keller, who has been exceptionally vulnerable to left-handed power this season; a staggering 83% of the home runs Keller has surrendered (10 of 12) have been hit by lefties.
P 1 HR — 1-for-3, 4 TB, 2 BB
HR THREATCubs @ Orioles
Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso is the primary power threat for the Orioles and catches a dream matchup against David Peterson. Peterson has been historically vulnerable to right-handed bats this season, allowing a .313 average and giving up 4 of his 8 home runs to righties despite having fewer than half the plate appearances against them compared to lefties.
P 0 HR — 0-for-1, 0 TB, 2 BB
SITUATIONALKC @ NYM
NYM's bullpen has covered 17.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 17.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Kodai Senga (3) and A.J. Minter (2). KC's pen has thrown 15.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 3-7
PLATOON EDGEKC @ NYM
Salvador Perez (bats R) draws Sean Manaea (LHP), batting 3rd
Salvador Perez carries a .819 OPS vs. Left (92 AB) against .520 the other way (243 AB), and faces LHP Sean Manaea from the 3rd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
STARTER FORMSEA @ MIA
Janson Junk: 9.19 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (15.7 IP) he has been tagged for 16 earned runs — a 9.19 ERA with a 1.85 WHIP (1.30 season) against a 4.80 season mark.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
PLATOON EDGEATL @ PIT
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Bryce Elder (RHP), batting 2nd
Brandon Lowe carries a .897 OPS vs. Right (242 AB) against .616 the other way (98 AB), and faces RHP Bryce Elder from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
STARTER FORMCHC @ BAL
David Peterson: 10.80 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (13.3 IP) he has been tagged for 16 earned runs — a 10.80 ERA with a 1.88 WHIP (1.67 season) against a 6.75 season mark.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
HEAD-TO-HEADLAA @ TEX
Angels are 5-2 vs Rangers this season
Angels lead the season series 5-2 over Rangers. LAA won the last meeting 13-1.
HEAD-TO-HEADCLE @ MIN
Twins are 4-1 vs Guardians this season
Twins lead the season series 4-1 over Guardians. MIN won the last meeting 6-5.
HEAT CHECKSEA @ MIA
Otto Lopez: 1.203 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (53 PA) he is at a 1.203 OPS, up 0.31 on his .893 season mark. He has 9 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-3, 3 TB, 2 BB
PLATOON EDGEBOS @ CHW
Andruw Monasterio (bats R) hits 6th against Anthony Kay (LHP)
Over 63 AB vs. Left, Andruw Monasterio owns a .868 OPS versus .477 in 85 AB the other way. He sees LHP Anthony Kay tonight hitting 6th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
STARTER FORMCHC @ BAL
Trevor Rogers: 0.49 ERA over his last 3 starts
He has allowed 1 earned runs over his last 18.3 innings (0.49 ERA) with a 0.82 WHIP (1.32 season) — a different pitcher than the 4.70 season line says.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
HEAT CHECKCOL @ SF
Rafael Devers: 1.088 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 50 PA: a 1.088 OPS versus .783 for the season, 0.305 above his norm. He has 18 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
FANTASY PICKUPSARI @ SD
Gavin Sheets
Pickup vs Merrill Kelly (7.78 xERA) — .761 OPS, bats 5th.
STARTER FORMCLE @ MIN
Bailey Ober: 8.59 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 14.7 innings, 14 earned runs, 25 hits. That 8.59 ERA runs 4 over his 4.59 season number.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
HEAT CHECKATL @ PIT
Ryan O'Hearn: 1.121 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.121 OPS spans the last 15 days (57 PA) against a .846 season baseline, a 0.275 swing. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REGRESSIONOAK @ DET
Jack Perkins: 6.75 ERA vs 4.08 xERA
Jack Perkins carries a 6.75 ERA against a 4.08 expected ERA (2.67 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .264 off him vs a .239 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 3 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
PLATOON EDGECHC @ BAL
Carson Kelly (bats R) draws Trevor Rogers (LHP), batting 4th
Carson Kelly carries a .970 OPS vs. Left (72 AB) against .675 the other way (133 AB), and faces LHP Trevor Rogers from the 4th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HR THREATBraves @ Pirates
Brandon Lowe
While Bryce Elder has respectable season-long splits against left-handed hitters, his recent performance indicates a pitcher who has lost his command entirely. Elder has been torched for 19 earned runs over his last three starts, struggling to get through the 5th inning in any of them.
P 0 HR — 0-for-5, 0 TB
COOLING OFFMIL @ STL
Ivan Herrera: .528 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Logan Henderson
Ivan Herrera's .528 OPS over the last 15 days (50 PA) trails his .785 season mark, down 0.257. Tonight he draws RHP Logan Henderson — his weaker side: a .762 OPS vs RHP across 234 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
TOURNAMENTTO LIFT THE CUP
France head the title market at +180
France are the market's outright World Cup favourite at +180. Spain (+360) and Argentina (+390) are the next shortest.
HEAT CHECKSEA @ MIA
Kyle Stowers: 1.097 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (48 PA) he is at a 1.097 OPS, up 0.296 on his .801 season mark. He has 12 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
COOLING OFFATL @ PIT
Drake Baldwin: .512 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Mitch Keller
Drake Baldwin's .512 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .784 season mark, down 0.272. Tonight he draws RHP Mitch Keller — his weaker side: a .757 OPS vs RHP across 158 AB.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
BALLPARKPHI @ CIN
Brady Singer owns a 3.29 ERA at Great American Ball Park — 6.75 everywhere else
Across 8 games (41 IP) at Great American Ball Park, Brady Singer has a 3.29 ERA against 6.75 at his other parks (41.3 IP). Hitters bat .239 off him here.
P 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
SITUATIONALMIL @ STL
14.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for STL
Relievers have absorbed 14.7 innings over the last 3 games (Bruce Zimmermann (5) and JoJo Romero (2) the heaviest). MIL's pen has thrown 7.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 8-4
COOLING OFFLAA @ TEX
Brandon Nimmo: .351 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Reid Detmers
Brandon Nimmo's .351 OPS over the last 15 days (31 PA) trails his .732 season mark, down 0.381. Tonight he draws LHP Reid Detmers — his weaker side: a .678 OPS vs LHP across 82 AB.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
COOLING OFFCHC @ BAL
Ian Happ: .501 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Trevor Rogers
Ian Happ's .501 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .756 season mark, down 0.255. Tonight he draws LHP Trevor Rogers — his weaker side: a .557 OPS vs LHP across 98 AB.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
PLATOON EDGEBOS @ CHW
Miguel Vargas (bats R) draws Patrick Sandoval (LHP), batting 3rd
Miguel Vargas carries a 1.013 OPS vs. Left (94 AB) against .771 the other way (233 AB), and faces LHP Patrick Sandoval from the 3rd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGENYY @ TB
Jonathan Aranda (bats L) hits 2nd against Paul Blackburn (RHP)
Over 230 AB vs. Right, Jonathan Aranda owns a .897 OPS versus .671 in 94 AB the other way. He sees RHP Paul Blackburn tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKPHI @ CIN
Trea Turner: .876 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (59 PA) he is at a .876 OPS, up 0.225 on his .651 season mark. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
XG RECAPCOL @ SUI
Colombia out-created the field but only drew
Colombia won the xG battle 1.0–0.3 yet were held to a draw (0–0). The underlying numbers favoured them — a side the result flattered to deceive.
HEAT CHECKNYY @ TB
Junior Caminero: 1.148 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.148 OPS spans the last 15 days (54 PA) against a .907 season baseline, a 0.241 swing. He has 26 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
HEAT CHECKKC @ NYM
A.J. Ewing: 1.061 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.061 OPS spans the last 15 days (52 PA) against a .812 season baseline, a 0.249 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
COOLING OFFCLE @ MIN
Travis Bazzana: .440 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Bailey Ober
Travis Bazzana's .440 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .742 season mark, down 0.302. Tonight he draws RHP Bailey Ober — his stronger side: a .866 OPS vs RHP across 145 AB.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
XG RECAPNOR @ BRA
Brazil out-created the field but didn't win
Brazil won the xG battle 2.8–0.8 yet lost to Norway (1–2). The underlying numbers favoured them — a side the result flattered to deceive.
BATTER VS ARMKC @ NYM
Salvador Perez vs Sean Manaea: .333
Salvador Perez has gone 6-for-18 (.333) across 18 career at-bats off Sean Manaea, with 3 HR. They meet again tonight. He enters steady (.692 OPS, L15).
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PARK WEATHERCOL @ SF
Wind blowing out 13 mph at Oracle Park tonight
Tonight's reading at Oracle Park — Partly Cloudy, 66°, wind 13 mph, Out To RF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 9.
P final total 10 vs 9 (over lean)
PLATOON EDGEATL @ PIT
Dominic Smith (bats L) gets a RHP from the 6th spot
Dominic Smith's vs. Right line (.740 OPS, 176 AB) sits well above his .459 mark the other way (26 AB). Tonight's starter Mitch Keller throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
BULLPENLAA @ TEX
Texas Rangers pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Texas Rangers's bullpen has thrown 12.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
SITUATIONALOAK @ DET
13.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for OAK
Relievers have absorbed 13.7 innings over the last 3 games (Mason Barnett (3) and Jacob Lopez (3) the heaviest). DET's pen has thrown 10 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 1-4
BULLPENATL @ PIT
Atlanta Braves pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Atlanta Braves's bullpen has thrown 13.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
COOLING OFFCHC @ BAL
Gunnar Henderson: .432 OPS in L15 — draws LHP David Peterson
Gunnar Henderson's .432 OPS over the last 15 days (50 PA) trails his .690 season mark, down 0.258. Tonight he draws LHP David Peterson — his stronger side: a .696 OPS vs LHP across 112 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
BATTER VS ARMLAA @ TEX
Reid Detmers vs Ezequiel Duran: 1-for-15, 7 K
Ezequiel Duran has managed only 1-for-15 (.067) off Reid Detmers, striking out 7 times in 15 career at-bats — they meet again tonight.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
SITUATIONALATL @ PIT
13.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for ATL
Relievers have absorbed 13.7 innings over the last 3 games (Connor Thomas (3.7) and Didier Fuentes (2) the heaviest). PIT's pen has thrown 11 over the same span.
P flagged side won 10-5
RUNNING GAMEMIL @ STL
Green light: Milwaukee Brewers run, and Ivan Herrera has caught just 0%
Milwaukee Brewers steal 0.9 bags a game (85 on the season) and Ivan Herrera has thrown out 0 of 25 runners (0%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 1 base
BATTER VS ARMATL @ PIT
Matt Olson vs Mitch Keller: .500
In 12 career at-bats against Mitch Keller, Matt Olson is 6-for-12 for a 1.372 OPS. The two square off again tonight. He enters hot (.937 OPS, L15).
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 2 BB
REGRESSIONARI @ SD
Merrill Kelly: 5.71 ERA vs 7.78 xERA
Merrill Kelly carries a 5.71 ERA against a 7.78 expected ERA (2.07 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .291 off him vs a .311 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
HEAT CHECKATL @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez: 1.193 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 51 PA: a 1.193 OPS versus .972 for the season, 0.221 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFBOS @ CHW
Wilyer Abreu: .509 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Anthony Kay
Wilyer Abreu's .509 OPS over the last 15 days (48 PA) trails his .754 season mark, down 0.245. Tonight he draws LHP Anthony Kay — his stronger side: a .961 OPS vs LHP across 101 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
TOURNAMENTMAR @ FRA
France vs Morocco: Quarterfinal stakes
This is a quarterfinal tie — win or go home. The market has it France -175 / the draw +280 / Morocco +550.
TOURNAMENTPATH TO THE FINAL
Argentina are the market's pick to reach the final from the other half
Behind the outright favourite, Argentina carry the shortest price to reach the final at +120 — the side the market most expects to come through the other half of the bracket.
REGRESSIONARI @ SD
Griffin Canning: 6.71 ERA vs 4.81 xERA
Griffin Canning carries a 6.71 ERA against a 4.81 expected ERA (1.9 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .269 off him vs a .245 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
SITUATIONALCLE @ MIN
13 bullpen innings in 3 games for CLE
Relievers have absorbed 13 innings over the last 3 games (Franco Aleman (2) and Erik Sabrowski (2) the heaviest). MIN's pen has thrown 8 over the same span.
P flagged side won 5-2
HEAT CHECKCLE @ MIN
Josh Bell: .950 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 46 PA: a .950 OPS versus .739 for the season, 0.211 above his norm. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TOMORROWCOL @ SF
Tanner Gordon: 6.95 ERA vs 4.87 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs SF. A 6.95 ERA against a 4.87 expected ERA (2.08 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .326 vs .261 expected.
TOMORROWSEA @ TB
Nick Martinez: 2.61 ERA vs 4.68 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs SEA. A 2.61 ERA against a 4.68 expected ERA (2.07 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .249 vs .281 expected.
SITUATIONALLAA @ TEX
TEX's pen has logged 12.7 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 12.7 innings out of the pen — Cole Winn (3) and Tyler Alexander (2) carried the load. LAA's pen has thrown 12 over the same span.
P flagged side won 6-7
REGRESSIONCOL @ SF
Cole Carrigg: .307 AVG vs .251 xBA
Cole Carrigg is hitting .307 against a .251 expected average (xBA) over 105 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .402 against a .334 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
BATTER VS ARMCLE @ MIN
Bailey Ober vs Brayan Rocchio: 2-for-16, 6 K
Across 16 career at-bats, Brayan Rocchio is just 2-for-16 against Bailey Ober with 6 strikeouts and a .250 OPS. The rematch is tonight.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKCLE @ MIN
Luke Keaschall: 1.002 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 32 PA: a 1.002 OPS versus .696 for the season, 0.306 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
STARTER FORMLAA @ TEX
Reid Detmers: 6.48 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 6.48 ERA over his last 16.7 innings with a 1.62 WHIP (1.11 season) — the 4.13 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 4 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
COOLING OFFNYY @ TB
Ben Rice: .737 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Drew Rasmussen
Ben Rice's .737 OPS over the last 15 days (51 PA) trails his .936 season mark, down 0.199. Tonight he draws RHP Drew Rasmussen — his stronger side: a 1.013 OPS vs RHP across 208 AB.
P 2-for-4, 8 TB, 1 BB
BATTER VS ARMLAA @ TEX
Reid Detmers vs Josh Jung: 0-for-11, 6 K
Across 11 career at-bats, Josh Jung is just 0-for-11 against Reid Detmers with 6 strikeouts and a .083 OPS. The rematch is tonight.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
XG REGRESSIONMAR @ FRA
France are finishing above their chances
France are scoring 2.8/match on 2.0 xG — 0.8 goals/match above expected across 5 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
SITUATIONALCOL @ SF
COL's bullpen has covered 12.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 12.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Zach Agnos (3) and Jimmy Herget (2). SF's pen has thrown 9.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 2-8
FANTASY PICKUPSARI @ SD
Miguel Andujar
Pickup vs Merrill Kelly (7.78 xERA) — .731 OPS, bats 8th.
REGRESSIONOAK @ DET
Matt Vierling: .198 AVG vs .249 xBA
Matt Vierling's .198 average comes against a .249 expected (xBA) on 249 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .256 against a .299 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAT CHECKCHC @ BAL
Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1.100 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 52 PA: a 1.100 OPS versus .928 for the season, 0.172 above his norm. He has 21 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKKC @ NYM
Isaac Collins: .943 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (35 PA) he is at a .943 OPS, up 0.247 on his .696 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONCHC @ BAL
David Peterson: 6.75 ERA vs 5.14 xERA
David Peterson carries a 6.75 ERA against a 5.14 expected ERA (1.61 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .300 off him vs a .280 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
STARTER FORMPHI @ CIN
Jesus Luzardo: 1.53 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 17.7 innings, 3 earned runs, 28 Ks. That 1.53 ERA sits 2.22 runs under his 3.75 season number.
P 7 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
REGRESSIONOAK @ DET
Zack Gelof: .274 AVG vs .225 xBA
Zack Gelof is hitting .274 against a .225 expected average (xBA) over 246 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .350 against a .290 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSARI @ SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Pickup vs Merrill Kelly (7.78 xERA) — .730 OPS, bats 1st.
BALLPARKMIL @ STL
At Busch Stadium, Andre Pallante pitches to a 4.47 ERA
Andre Pallante at Busch Stadium: 4.47 ERA over 56.3 innings (10G) — 2.33 on a 38.7-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .287 off him here.
P 5 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
REGRESSIONSEA @ MIA
Otto Lopez: .345 AVG vs .299 xBA
Otto Lopez is hitting .345 against a .299 expected average (xBA) over 392 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .384 against a .342 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-3, 3 TB, 2 BB
REGRESSIONATL @ PIT
Jake Mangum: .300 AVG vs .254 xBA
Across 239 plate appearances, Jake Mangum carries a .300 average versus a .254 xBA. His wOBA sits at .317 against a .282 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 4-for-5, 8 TB
REGRESSIONBOS @ CHW
Randal Grichuk: .252 AVG vs .298 xBA
Randal Grichuk's .252 average comes against a .298 expected (xBA) on 138 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .343 against a .372 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
BULLPENMIL @ STL
St. Louis Cardinals pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
St. Louis Cardinals's bullpen has thrown 14.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 1 arm working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
TOMORROWATL @ STL
Kyle Leahy: 3.86 ERA vs 5.56 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs ATL. A 3.86 ERA against a 5.56 expected ERA (1.7 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .274 vs .279 expected.
REGRESSIONCHC @ BAL
Nico Hoerner: .240 AVG vs .284 xBA
Nico Hoerner is hitting .240 against a .284 expected average (xBA) over 405 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .292 against a .320 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
XG RECAPMAR @ FRA
France created the better chances
France led the xG 3.1–0.1 and took the result to match (2–0).
XG RECAPEGY @ ARG
Argentina created the better chances
Argentina led the xG 2.9–0.9 and took the result to match (3–2).
TOURNAMENTSUREST TO ADVANCE
Côte d'Ivoire are the surest bet to advance
Côte d'Ivoire are -10000 to escape their group out of Group E — the shortest to-advance price on the board.
PARK WEATHERKC @ NYM
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Citi Field tonight
Tonight's reading at Citi Field — Partly Cloudy, 83°, wind 10 mph, Out To LF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 9.
P final total 10 vs 9 (over lean)
TOMORROWPHI @ DET
Aaron Nola: 5.87 ERA vs 4.25 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs DET. A 5.87 ERA against a 4.25 expected ERA (1.62 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .285 vs .250 expected.
FANTASY PICKUPSNYY @ TB
Drew Rasmussen
Streamer vs NYY — 3.17 xERA · 8.9 K/9 · 0.9 WHIP.
FANTASY PICKUPSPHI @ CIN
Brandon Marsh
Pickup vs Brady Singer (5.56 xERA) — .842 OPS, bats 4th.
REGRESSIONNYY @ TB
Paul Blackburn: 2.22 ERA vs 3.51 xERA
Paul Blackburn carries a 2.22 ERA against a 3.51 expected ERA (1.29 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .221 off him vs a .237 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
PARK WEATHERBOS @ CHW
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Rate Field tonight
Tonight's reading at Rate Field — Partly Cloudy, 81°, wind 10 mph, Out To LF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 9.
P final total 3 vs 9 (over lean)
STARTER FORMCOL @ SF
Ryan Feltner: 2.50 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 18 innings, 5 earned runs, 11 Ks. That 2.50 ERA sits 1.77 runs under his 4.27 season number.
P 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
TOMORROWNYY @ WSH
Zack Littell: 5.02 ERA vs 6.53 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs NYY. A 5.02 ERA against a 6.53 expected ERA (1.51 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .260 vs .295 expected.
COOLING OFFATL @ PIT
Dominic Smith: .468 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Mitch Keller
Dominic Smith's .468 OPS over the last 15 days (31 PA) trails his .704 season mark, down 0.236. Tonight he draws RHP Mitch Keller — his stronger side: a .740 OPS vs RHP across 176 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
FIRST INNINGCOL @ SF
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of COL @ SF
Both sides keep scoring early — a 1st-inning run in 7 of 10 for SF and 8 of 10 for COL games lately.
P 1st inning: 0-1 (1 run)
RUNNING GAMEKC @ NYM
Kansas City Royals like to run — Luis Torrens (41% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Kansas City Royals attempt 1 steals a game, but Luis Torrens has cut down 13 of 32 runners (41%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Kansas City Royals stole 0 bases
FIRST INNINGARI @ SD
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of ARI @ SD
SD games have produced a first-inning run in 7 of their last 10; ARI games in 8 of 10. Early runs have been the rule, not the exception.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
STARTER FORMBOS @ CHW
Anthony Kay: 2.63 ERA over his last 3 starts
He has allowed 4 earned runs over his last 13.7 innings (2.63 ERA) with a 1.17 WHIP (1.39 season) — a different pitcher than the 4.29 season line says.
P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
HEAT CHECKBOS @ CHW
Miguel Vargas: .963 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (48 PA) he is at a .963 OPS, up 0.122 on his .841 season mark. He has 20 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
XG RECAPENG @ MEX
Mexico dominated the ball but didn't win
Mexico held 67% of possession yet lost to England (2–3) — control without the cutting edge.
COOLING OFFBOS @ CHW
Randal Grichuk: .545 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Patrick Sandoval
Randal Grichuk's .545 OPS over the last 15 days (22 PA) trails his .809 season mark, down 0.264. Tonight he draws LHP Patrick Sandoval — his stronger side: a .928 OPS vs LHP across 83 AB.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
TOMORROWATL @ STL
Chris Sale: 2.27 ERA vs 3.44 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs STL. A 2.27 ERA against a 3.44 expected ERA (1.17 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .230 vs .234 expected.
RUNNING GAMESEA @ MIA
Miami Marlins like to run — Cal Raleigh (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Cal Raleigh owns a 33% caught-stealing rate (11 of 33) and Miami Marlins run anyway — 1.1 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Miami Marlins stole 0 bases
FANTASY PICKUPSATL @ PIT
Drake Baldwin
Pickup vs Mitch Keller (5.38 xERA) — .784 OPS, bats 4th.
TOMORROWCOL @ SF
Robbie Ray: 3.45 ERA vs 4.56 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs COL. A 3.45 ERA against a 4.56 expected ERA (1.11 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .216 vs .237 expected.
BALLPARKARI @ SD
At Petco Park, Griffin Canning pitches to a 6.08 ERA
Griffin Canning at Petco Park: 6.08 ERA over 26.7 innings (6G) — 7.40 on a 24.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .242 off him here.
P 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
FANTASY PICKUPSATL @ PIT
Ozzie Albies
Pickup vs Mitch Keller (5.38 xERA) — .767 OPS, bats 2nd.
TOMORROWBOS @ NYM
Sonny Gray: 2.61 ERA vs 3.7 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs NYM. A 2.61 ERA against a 3.7 expected ERA (1.09 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .229 vs .242 expected.
FANTASY PICKUPSBOS @ CHW
Ceddanne Rafaela
Pickup vs Anthony Kay (5.24 xERA) — .776 OPS, bats 2nd.
RUNNING GAMESEA @ MIA
Green light: Seattle Mariners run, and Liam Hicks has caught just 11%
Liam Hicks is catching tonight at 11% on the season (4-for-36 throwing), and Seattle Mariners attempt 1 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Seattle Mariners stole 3 bases
FANTASY PICKUPSATL @ PIT
Mauricio Dubon
Pickup vs Mitch Keller (5.38 xERA) — .755 OPS, bats 5th.
TOMORROWKC @ BAL
Brandon Young: 3.38 ERA vs 4.34 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs KC. A 3.38 ERA against a 4.34 expected ERA (0.97 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .251 vs .256 expected.
BATTER VS ARMKC @ NYM
Juan Soto vs Michael Wacha: .400
Juan Soto's career line off Michael Wacha is 4-for-10, a .400 average over 10 at-bats — they meet again tonight. He enters hot (1.033 OPS, L15).
P 1-for-2, 4 TB, 2 BB
FIRST INNINGSEA @ MIA
SEA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Seattle Mariners have scored in the first inning just 0 times in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
BATTER VS ARMATL @ PIT
Mauricio Dubon vs Mitch Keller: .400
In 10 career at-bats against Mitch Keller, Mauricio Dubon is 4-for-10 for a .955 OPS (1 walk). The two square off again tonight. He enters hot (.851 OPS, L15).
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
TOMORROWARI @ LAD
Shohei Ohtani: 1.79 ERA vs 2.7 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs ARI. A 1.79 ERA against a 2.7 expected ERA (0.91 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .180 vs .201 expected.
BALLPARKATL @ PIT
Mitch Keller's ERA jumps to 5.50 at PNC Park
Mitch Keller carries a 5.50 ERA over 10 games (55.7 IP) at PNC Park vs 4.43 across 44.7 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .271 off him here.
P 3 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
FANTASY PICKUPSATL @ PIT
Michael Harris II
Pickup vs Mitch Keller (5.38 xERA) — .848 OPS, bats 1st.
RUNNING GAMECLE @ MIN
Minnesota Twins like to run — Patrick Bailey (35% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Patrick Bailey owns a 35% caught-stealing rate (17 of 49) and Minnesota Twins run anyway — 0.6 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Minnesota Twins stole 0 bases
RUNNING GAMEATL @ PIT
Green light: Pittsburgh Pirates run, and Drake Baldwin has caught just 16%
Drake Baldwin is catching tonight at 16% on the season (5-for-32 throwing), and Pittsburgh Pirates attempt 1.1 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Pittsburgh Pirates stole 1 base
RUNNING GAMEBOS @ CHW
Green light: Chicago White Sox run, and Connor Wong has caught just 15%
Connor Wong is catching tonight at 15% on the season (3-for-20 throwing), and Chicago White Sox attempt 0.9 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Chicago White Sox stole 1 base
FANTASY PICKUPSLAA @ TEX
Nathan Eovaldi
Streamer vs LAA — 4.02 xERA · 9.4 K/9 · 1.17 WHIP.
BATTER VS ARMMIL @ STL
Brice Turang vs Andre Pallante: .385
Brice Turang's career line off Andre Pallante is 5-for-13, a .385 average over 13 at-bats — they meet again tonight. He enters steady (.768 OPS, L15).
P 2-for-5, 5 TB
BALLPARKMAR @ FRA
France vs Morocco: warm at Gillette Stadium
87°F at kickoff — warm enough to weigh on legs across 90+ minutes. Conditions at Gillette Stadium: 87°F, 10 mph wind, 3% rain.
FIRST INNINGMIL @ STL
MIL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Milwaukee Brewers have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
SITUATIONALMorocco @ France
France v Morocco: projected XI
Likely lineups from each side's last match — confirmed sheets post ~2h before kickoff.

Graded results

Games

L
Royals ML +116
MLB · 3-7
L
Rays ML -154
MLB · 12-4
W
Guardians ML -124
MLB · 5-2
W
Braves ML -116
MLB · 10-5
W
Brewers ML -134
MLB · 8-4
L
Phillies -1.5 -104
MLB · 1-0
W
France ML -165
WC · 0-2
W
Red Sox ML -102
MLB · 2-1
W
Under 2.5 -120
WC · 0-2
W
Tigers ML -124
MLB · 1-4
L
Angels ML +112
MLB · 6-7
L
Padres ML -130
MLB · 3-1
L
Rockies ML +108
MLB · 2-8
W
Orioles ML -130
MLB · 2-3
L
Mariners ML -130
MLB · 4-8

Props

L
Brandon Lowe · over
Braves @ Pirates · Actual 0
W
Brice Turang · over
Brewers @ Cardinals · Actual 6
L
Bryce Harper · over
Phillies @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Bryson Stott · over
Phillies @ Reds · Actual 1
L
Carson Kelly · over
Cubs @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Ceddanne Rafaela · over
Red Sox @ White Sox · Actual 0
W
Dominic Canzone · over
Mariners @ Marlins · Actual 5
W
Esmerlyn Valdez · over
Braves @ Pirates · Actual 4
W
Hunter Goodman · over
Rockies @ Giants · Actual 1
L
Jackson Merrill · over
Diamondbacks @ Padres · Actual 0
W
Jordan Walker · over
Brewers @ Cardinals · Actual 5
W
Juan Soto · over
Royals @ Mets · Actual 2
W
Justin Foscue · over
Angels @ Rangers · Actual 2
L
Ketel Marte · over
Diamondbacks @ Padres · Actual 0
L
Kody Clemens · over
Guardians @ Twins · Actual 0
L
Kyle Schwarber · over
Phillies @ Reds · Actual 1
L
Kyle Schwarber · over
Phillies @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Kylian Mbappé · over
Morocco @ France · Actual 4
W
Lane Thomas · over
Royals @ Mets · Actual 3
W
Luis Arraez · over
Rockies @ Giants · Actual 2
W
Matt Olson · over
Braves @ Pirates · Actual 1
W
Matt Olson · over
Braves @ Pirates · Actual 4
L
Michael Olise · over
Morocco @ France · Actual 0
L
Riley Greene · over
Athletics @ Tigers · Actual 0
L
Shea Langeliers · over
Athletics @ Tigers · Actual 1
W
Wyatt Langford · over
Angels @ Rangers · Actual 1
W
Yandy Diaz · over
Yankees @ Rays · Actual 1