Phillies at Reds
O/U 9 · RL Reds -1.5 · Great American Ball Park
Reds ML-142
CONF 78%
WCashedFinal 5-11
The read
The stage is set under the warm Cincinnati sky at Great American Ball Park as our Reds send their dynamic young ace, Chase Burns, to the mound in a pivotal clash against the visiting Philadelphia Phillies.
As a lifelong Reds fan who grew up watching this team and dreaming of moments like this, I have absolute belief in what this organization is building—and tonight, that optimism is backed by serious cold, hard data. We are rolling out our absolute superstar, Chase Burns, who has been nothing short of spectacular with a 10-1 record, a 2.40 ERA, and 116 strikeouts in 97.2 innings. At home in Cincinnati, Burns has been nearly untouchable, pitching to a stellar 1.99 ERA. His primary weapon is an elite slider that boasts a ridiculous 54.9% whiff rate and a tiny .200 expected wOBA. While the Phillies possess dangerous left-handed bats like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, Burns has the raw, elite stuff to neutralize threat after threat when the lights shine brightest.
The real tactical edge tonight lies in the pitching matchup disparity. The Phillies are forced to run out a bullpen game starting with Alan Rangel, who has pitched just 16.0 innings this year to a 1.31 WHIP. Rangel has shown a massive vulnerability against left-handed hitters, allowing a .289 average and an .831 OPS. That plays perfectly into the hands of our most dangerous weapons at the top of the order, where switch-hitting and left-handed threats like Elly De La Cruz, JJ Bleday, and TJ Friedl can jump on his 93 mph fastball early. Once Rangel is chased, the Phillies will have to rely on a heavily taxed relief corps to piece together the remaining innings in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league.
The public might look at the teams' recent trends and worry about our Reds coming off a tough 3-7 stretch, but that is exactly why we get value on the moneyline at -142. Philadelphia has their own pitching struggles, having allowed 5.5 runs per game over their last ten outings. With a Cy Young candidate on our mound and the Phillies forced to piece together nine innings in a tough road environment, this is the ultimate spot for the Reds to flex their muscles and show the baseball world what this organization's future is all about. Trust the ace, trust the home-field advantage, and back Cincinnati on the moneyline.
Injuries noted
Reds: [KNOWN] Graham Ashcraft (RP) — Elbow (Right): Ashcraft is expected to resume throwing soon after receiving good news Tuesday regarding the imaging on his injured right elbow UCL, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 30 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): Williamson (shoulder) injured his finger while working out, and his rehab program has been pushed back by about 10 days as a result, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 28 — 10d ago) [NEW] Blake Dunn (CF) — Elbow (Right): Dunn (elbow) hoped to resume baseball activity Saturday but was not ready, MLB.com reports. (Jul 5 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Tony Santillan (RP) — Oblique (Left): Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI on Santillan's left oblique showed a significant strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 26 — 12d ago) [KNOWN] Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Back (Not Specified): Hayes (back) will stick with High-A Dayton this weekend and then have his rehab moved to Triple-A Louisville next week, MLB.com reports. (Jul 4 — 4d ago) [NEW] Dane Myers (CF) — Shoulder (Left): Myers received an injection in the AC joint of his left shoulder Saturday, MLB.com reports. (Jul 5 — 3d ago) Phillies: [NEW] Brad Keller (RP) — Forearm (Right): The Phillies plan to reinstate Keller (forearm) from the 15-day injured list Wednesday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports. (Jul 7 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] Johan Rojas (Center Fielder) — Elbow (Right): Rojas (suspension) underwent surgery Friday to repair the UCL in his right elbow and will face an expected recovery timeline of 6-to-8 months, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports. (Jun 25 — 13d ago) [KNOWN] Adolis Garcia (RF) — Lat (Right): The Phillies announced that Garcia underwent successful surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports. (Jun 24 — 14d ago)
Props on this game
4Bryce HarperOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+130
LActual 0
Bryce Harper batting leadoff in Great American Ball Park is a textbook environment for an over on total bases. The matchup against Chase Burns is particularly intriguing; while Burns is a high-strikeout ace (116 K in 97.2 IP), the data shows he is specifically vulnerable to left-handed power.
83% of the home runs Burns has allowed this season (10 of 12) have come against lefties, and his OPS against left-handers (.700) is significantly higher than against right-handers (.522). Harper showed signs of emerging from a recent slump with a home run yesterday and now moves to the top of the order where he is guaranteed maximum volume in a 'bandbox' park.
The 87-degree humidity in Cincinnati further favors the carry of fly balls, making a single extra-base hit or two singles highly probable for an elite hitter in this specific platoon matchup. The risk is Burns' 98 mph velocity simply overpowering the top of the order, but the split data suggests Harper has the definitive edge if he makes contact.
Elly De La CruzOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-140
WActual 7
Elly De La Cruz is the primary engine of the Cincinnati offense and faces a favorable environment tonight as the Phillies deploy a 'bullpen game.' The expected bulk reliever, Alan Rangel, possesses a stark platoon disadvantage against left-handed and switch-hitters, allowing a .831 OPS. De La Cruz, batting leadoff, is positioned to exploit this across multiple at-bats.
His elite speed (13 SB) means that even a simple walk or single frequently translates into a run scored when followed by the Reds' high-RBI middle of the order (Stewart and Suarez). De La Cruz has been consistent in getting on base, recording hits in 4 of his last 5 games.
In a high-scoring park environment, a player with his ability to generate hits, runs, and stolen bases has multiple paths to clearing a 1.5 HRR line. The risk lies in the Reds' collective offensive struggles (4.1 R/G), but facing a non-traditional pitching rotation provides a higher floor for the team's leadoff catalyst.
Kyle SchwarberOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+245
WActual 1
Kyle Schwarber is the most prolific home run hitter in this matchup, entering with 31 homers and a blistering rate of one long ball every 10.6 at-bats. Tonight he faces Chase Burns, who despite an elite ERA, is a fly-ball pitcher (0.70 GO/AO) who has struggled with home run suppression against left-handed hitters.
Burns has surrendered 10 of his 12 home runs this season specifically to lefties. Great American Ball Park is a renowned hitter's haven with a 1.1 park factor, and the 87°F heat provides ideal conditions for the ball to carry.
Schwarber bats second, ensuring maximum plate appearances to exploit this specific fly-ball matchup in a small park.
Elly De La CruzOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+370
WActual 1
Elly De La Cruz has a clear path to production tonight against Phillies starter/opener Alan Rangel. Rangel has been vulnerable to left-handed hitters, allowing a .289 batting average and a high .831 OPS to the left side.
De La Cruz, batting leadoff, will get the first crack at Rangel in a park that significantly inflates home run production (1.1 factor). While Elly hasn't homered in his last five games, his elite exit velocity makes him a threat to clear any fence at Great American Ball Park, especially in the 87°F Cincinnati heat.
At +370, the market is underestimating his ability to catch a mistake from a replacement-level starter with poor platoon splits.
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