Daily archive

2026-07-07

The stored Gary board for Tue, Jul 7. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

WC12:00 PM

Egypt @ Argentina

A trip to the semi-finals is on the line at Mercedes-Benz Stadium as the tournament’s most dominant attack in Argentina collides with an Egypt side riding a historic wave of momentum. Under the climate-controlled dome in Atlanta, this match will be decided strictly on tactical execution and physical recovery, free from any weather or altitude complications. My read on this match centers entirely on Egypt's sudden and severe defensive crisis. Egypt entered this tournament with a reputation for defensive rigidity, but they are now missing three of their four primary starting defenders: center-back Mohamed Abdelmonem, left-back Ahmed Fatouh, and right-back Mohamed Hany. Forcing reserve defenders to step in and stop an elite, possession-heavy Argentina side that averages 2.03 xG and 15.17 shots per match is an incredibly tall order. Argentina's attacking depth—led by Lionel Messi, Julian Álvarez, and Lautaro Martínez—will relentlessly isolate and exploit these backup defenders in space. The counter-argument is that Egypt is undefeated and has specialized in low-scoring stalemates, drawing three of their four tournament matches. However, those results were achieved with their first-choice backline completely intact. With Argentina's straight moneyline heavily juiced at -295, laying the -1.5 goals at even money (+100) is the sharpest way to play this matchup. Once Argentina breaks Egypt's defensive shell, the makeshift Egyptian backline will struggle to cope, allowing Argentina to cover the multi-goal spread.

Argentina -1.5-105

CONF

78%

WC12:00 PM

Egypt @ Argentina

A spot in the final four is up for grabs under the dome in Atlanta as Argentina's high-octane offense looks to pierce through Egypt's tournament-tested resilience. With ideal turf conditions and identical rest schedules, both teams will look to establish their attacking game plans early. The total line of 2.5 is priced with the expectation that Egypt will successfully park the bus, but the return of a fully fit Mohamed Salah to Egypt's starting lineup alongside Trézéguet and Omar Marmoush changes the entire dynamic of this match. Argentina's defense showed real vulnerability against Cape Verde, conceding two goals in transition, meaning Egypt has the high-caliber counter-attacking weapons to get on the scoresheet tonight. An early Argentinian breakthrough against Egypt's backup defenders will force Egypt to abandon their defensive shape. Once Egypt is forced to chase the game, the match will stretch, allowing Salah to threaten on the counter while exposing Egypt's backline to further damage from Messi and Álvarez. This open, transitional game script easily pushes the match past the 2.5-goal threshold, making the Over at -105 a very strong value play.

Over 2.5-105

CONF

72%

MLB2:15 PM

Brewers @ Cardinals

The summer sun beats down on Busch Stadium as the National League Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers roll into town for Game 1 of a crucial day-night doubleheader against the St. Louis Cardinals. With division positioning and summer momentum taking shape, these two rivals meet with vastly different pitching outlooks for this afternoon opener. This game features what is perhaps the most glaring starting pitching and tactical mismatch of the season. The Brewers hand the ball to their Cy Young candidate, Jacob Misiorowski, who boasts a microscopic 1.47 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and 156 strikeouts over 104.0 innings. Meanwhile, St. Louis is forced into a desperate bullpen game, handing Matt Svanson his first career MLB start on just one day of rest after throwing 39 pitches on Sunday. Svanson is carrying a 6.69 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. The Brewers' right-handed power bats, led by William Contreras with his .291 average and Jackson Chourio, are primed to exploit Svanson, who has surrendered a staggering .342 batting average and a .959 OPS to righties this year. The real tactical disaster for the Cardinals is how their lineup clashes with Misiorowski. St. Louis has penned six left-handed hitters into their starting lineup today. That is statistically perilous against Misiorowski, who holds left-handed batters to a ridiculously low .101 batting average and a .338 OPS over 188 at-bats this season. St. Louis is also dealing with a heavily depleted bullpen; they blew a lead yesterday and just lost left-handed reliever Justin Bruihl to a fresh ankle sprain, leaving their pitching staff with almost no answers for Milwaukee's own left-handed stars. On top of that, Cardinals rookie catcher Jimmy Crooks is 0-for-7 in throwing out base-stealers this year, giving a green light to Brewers speedsters like Brice Turang to run wild on the bases. The counter-argument to backing the Brewers is that baseball doubleheaders are high-variance environments, and backing any road favorite at -205 is a steep tax, especially when Misiorowski's actual 1.47 ERA sits slightly below his 2.09 xERA. But looking at the actual pitching depth and matchup dynamics, this is a complete chasm. Milwaukee has utterly dominated St. Louis this season, winning six consecutive meetings while outscoring them by an average of 4.7 to 1.9. Rather than lay the expensive -205 price on the moneyline, the play is to back the Brewers on the run line. In a mismatch this severe, Milwaukee is positioned to run away with Game 1.

Brewers -1.5-118

CONF

85%

WC4:00 PM

Colombia @ Switzerland

A place in the World Cup quarterfinals is on the line tonight at Vancouver's BC Place as an injury-riddled Switzerland attempts to halt a surging, defensively elite Colombia. This is knockout football at its finest, where squad depth and physical resilience are tested to the absolute limit. My read on this match is that Colombia at +130 on the moneyline represents a massive structural edge. The biggest argument against backing Colombia is their camp-wide flu outbreak and the tournament-ending adductor injury to starting forward Jhon Córdoba. But Switzerland's roster situation is far worse, bordering on a crisis. The late-breaking news that breakout attacker Johan Manzambi—who has three goals and two assists in this tournament—is out with a knee injury strips the Swiss of their primary offensive threat. Combine that with the confirmed absences of center-back Luca Jaquez and defensive midfielder Michel Aebischer, and the entire spine of the Swiss team is compromised. Even if James Rodríguez is operating slightly below his peak due to flu recovery, his elite creative quality, paired with Luis Díaz’s threat, should prove too much for a patchwork Swiss defense. While Switzerland has shown impressive offensive metrics in their run to the Round of 16, averaging 2.25 goals per match, those numbers were compiled with a healthy Manzambi and a settled defensive unit. Colombia’s defense is a brick wall, conceding just 0.25 goals per match in this tournament and boasting three consecutive clean sheets. With Colombia's preferred backline fully healthy and Jhon Durán ready to step in up front, they have the stability to absorb what remains of the Swiss attack and exploit the massive holes in the Swiss defense to secure the win in normal time.

Colombia ML+130

CONF

72%

WC4:00 PM

Colombia @ Switzerland

Under the climate-controlled roof of BC Place, a spot in the World Cup quarterfinals is up for grabs as Colombia and Switzerland bring their undefeated records to Vancouver. With both teams missing vital attacking centerpieces, this matchup is primed to be a low-scoring, highly tactical struggle. My read of this game is that Under 2.5 goals at -160 is the safest position on the board, even with the heavy juice. The strongest case for the Over is Switzerland's high-flying tournament form, having averaged 2.25 goals per match and generating a robust 2.23 xG over their last six games. However, those offensive numbers are completely compromised tonight. The sudden loss of Johan Manzambi to a knee injury removes Switzerland's main offensive catalyst. Facing a compromised defense with Jaquez and Aebischer out, the Swiss are highly likely to retreat into a conservative, low-block defensive posture to protect their makeshift backline, dragging the tempo of this match to a crawl. Colombia is more than happy to play a low-scoring chess match. They are the defensive gold standard of this tournament, conceding just 0.25 goals per match and keeping clean sheets in three of their four matches. With their own target man Jhon Córdoba ruled out with an adductor tear and their camp recovering from a flu outbreak, Colombia's offensive transition is likely to be deliberate rather than explosive. Both teams possess high passing accuracy metrics—Switzerland at 87.67% and Colombia at 87.5%—which they will use to possess the ball in low-risk areas, running the clock down and keeping goal-scoring opportunities to an absolute premium.

Under 2.5-160

CONF

85%

MLB6:35 PM

Cubs @ Orioles

The skies over Camden Yards are darkening with a near fifty-percent chance of thunderstorms tonight, setting a dramatic backdrop as Matthew Boyd and the Chicago Cubs open a crucial interleague series against Shane Baz and the Baltimore Orioles. In a matchup where the weather forecast of 44% to 49% precipitation introduces high volatility, the value tonight sits squarely with the visiting Cubs at -112. The defining factor of this game is the fresh, devastating injury news out of the Orioles' bullpen, which lost primary closer Ryan Helsley and key setup man Keegan Akin to elbow injuries today. With Baltimore's high-leverage bridge suddenly in shambles and forced into a committee approach, any rain delay that knocks out the starting pitchers early turns this into a battle of relief depth—a scenario where the Orioles are deeply compromised. Now, the sharp money knows Shane Baz is the more durable starter on paper, coming off a strong five-start stretch with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, while Boyd has struggled with a volatile 5.08 ERA and failed to complete five innings in three of his last five starts. That durability edge is exactly why the public is tempted by Baltimore at home. However, the Cubs have the perfect structural equalizer: defense. Chicago boasts the best defense in baseball, leading the league with 58 Defensive Runs Saved and a 35.8 defensive rating. This elite glovework, anchored by Nico Hoerner's 12 DRS, acts as a massive security blanket for Boyd's 51.5% hard-hit rate. Conversely, the Orioles' defense is a major liability, ranking 22nd in the majors with 11 DRS and a dismal -18 Outs Above Average. In a high-stress, potentially wet environment, Baltimore's defensive lapses are a recipe for disaster. At the plate, Chicago's offense is firing, averaging 5.1 runs per game compared to Baltimore's 4.6, and they are in far superior recent form with a 7-3 record in their last ten games. Baz has clear platoon struggles, giving up a .276 batting average and an .801 OPS to left-handed hitters. The Cubs are built to exploit this with elite lefties like Pete Crow-Armstrong, who carries a .922 OPS against right-handed pitching and a 5.2 WAR, alongside Michael Conforto and his .837 OPS against righties. While the Orioles' offense has put up a strong .367 xwOBA over their last three games and can hit Boyd's righty-vulnerable splits, their late-inning instability and defensive liability make them a highly risky proposition. Back the Cubs to take advantage of Baltimore's fresh bullpen absences and secure the road win.

Cubs ML-112

CONF

65%

MLB6:40 PM

Athletics @ Tigers

A beautiful, clear 79-degree evening at Comerica Park sets the stage for this series opener as the Detroit Tigers host the Oakland Athletics. On the surface, Oakland’s J.T. Ginn (7-4, 3.04 ERA) has matching numbers to Detroit's ace Tarik Skubal (4-4, 3.15 ERA), but looking under the hood reveals a massive starting pitching mismatch. While Skubal is an elite, high-strikeout arm with a matching 3.26 xERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and pinpoint control (10.3 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9), Ginn is a classic regression candidate. Ginn's shiny 3.04 ERA is heavily contradicted by a 4.08 xERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and severe walk issues (7.8 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9, including 14 walks over his last 29 innings). The Tigers' offense is coming in hot, posting an elite .390 xwOBA over their last three games compared to Oakland’s sluggish .323 xwOBA, meaning Ginn's control issues will likely be punished early. The platoon matchups are extremely lopsided. While Ginn limits righties to a .169 AVG and .520 OPS, he gets hammered by lefties, yielding a .251 AVG and .740 OPS, and Detroit is stacking six left-handed bats today, including Riley Greene and Colt Keith. On the other side, Skubal absolutely neutralizes righty batters, holding them to a .189 AVG and .570 OPS, though he can struggle against left-handed hitting (.295 AVG and .809 OPS). The strongest argument against backing the Tigers is that Skubal is vulnerable to lefties, and the Athletics’ offense is statistically superior on the season, averaging 4.6 runs per game with a .248 AVG and .736 OPS compared to Detroit’s 4.2 runs per game, .236 AVG, and .711 OPS. Furthermore, Oakland’s road record of 22-21 is respectable compared to Detroit’s modest 23-21 home record. However, Oakland only has one left-handed bat in today's lineup—the rookie Nick Kurtz—leaving them without the necessary left-handed firepower to exploit Skubal’s platoon split. Finally, the bullpen situation seals the deal for Detroit. The Tigers' high-leverage bridge is fully intact and rested, featuring Kyle Finnegan (2.23 ERA, 40.1 IP, 1.51 WHIP) and Kenley Jansen (4.98 ERA, 10 SV). Oakland's relief corps is highly depleted, with multi-inning relievers Jack Perkins and Mason Barnett unavailable, forcing the Athletics to lean on a heavily worked unit led by Hogan Harris (3.38 ERA, 6 SV) and Scott Barlow (6.48 ERA). Despite Oakland (41-49) having a slightly better overall record than Detroit (40-50), the Tigers are playing with much better momentum (6-4 in their last 10 games versus Oakland’s 3-7). Laying the run line at plus-money is the sharp move here, as Detroit’s offensive momentum and Skubal's shutdown stuff should lead to a multi-run victory.

Tigers -1.5 (112)+100

CONF

75%

MLB6:40 PM

Braves @ Pirates

The evening sun hangs low over PNC Park as the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to battle in a clash of highly touted right-handers, but behind the marquee billing lies a matchup shaped by quiet physical declines and sudden defensive crises. Paul Skenes is a household name, but his current form is highly concerning. Skenes is mired in a catastrophic stretch, posting an 11.00 ERA over his last two starts while allowing 11 earned runs in 9.0 innings. More alarming is his physical profile: Skenes' average fastball velocity plummeted from 98.2 mph down to 93.6 mph in his last start, accompanied by a spin-rate decline of approximately 330 rpm since April. The public continues to price Skenes like an elite ace, making the Pirates steep -152 favorites, but Pittsburgh has lost nine consecutive games in Skenes' starts. The Braves' left-handed power bats, led by Matt Olson (.923 OPS vs. RHP, .976 Away OPS) and Michael Harris II (.885 OPS vs. RHP, .941 Away OPS), are statistically primed to strike against Skenes' diminished velocity. The strongest argument against backing Atlanta tonight is their heavily depleted bullpen. With closer Raisel Iglesias, Didier Fuentes, and Dylan Lee likely unavailable due to high pitch counts on Monday, and Tyler Kinley placed on the paternity list today, the Braves have severe relief depth issues. However, starter Hurston Waldrep showed excellent resilience in his lone 2026 start (7.1 IP, 3.68 ERA), retiring 13 of his final 15 batters after a shaky first frame and posting a 62.5% whiff rate on his curveball. Crucially, Waldrep’s heavy ground-ball profile (3.67 GO/AO) is supported by an elite Braves defense that ranks 5th in MLB with 27 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a .987 fielding percentage. Conversely, the Pirates' defense ranks 20th with just 1 DRS and a .983 fielding percentage, a deficiency magnified by today's fresh injury to shortstop Konnor Griffin (torn finger tendon), which leaves a defensive hole (-9 DRS at SS) for Pittsburgh. Behind the plate, Drake Baldwin gives the Braves a subtle but vital edge with +1 Framing Run and 0 Blocks Above Average, contrasted with Henry Davis's -1 Framing Run and -4 Blocks Above Average. While Pittsburgh's bats have been hot, averaging 6.6 runs per game in their last 10, the Braves have dominated this matchup in 2026, sweeping the earlier three-game series by outscoring the Pirates 5.0 runs per game to 2.7 (+7 run differential). At a highly attractive +128 price tag, we are getting incredible value on a disciplined Braves team with superior defense, taking advantage of Skenes' severe velocity drop before the market fully adjusts. I am putting my money on Atlanta.

Braves ML+128

CONF

68%

MLB6:40 PM

Yankees @ Rays

We are under the dome at Tropicana Field tonight as the Tampa Bay Rays look to defend their AL East lead and snap a three-game skid against a New York Yankees team trying to claw their way back into the division race. My money is riding on the Rays moneyline tonight, and the value lies heavily in a starting pitching matchup that favors the home side far more than this -130 price suggests. While Ian Seymour’s season ERA sits at 4.02, his underlying metrics paint the picture of a dominant arm, carrying a 3.34 xERA and a stellar 3.18 ERA over his last four starts. In that stretch, Seymour has been incredibly stingy with traffic, yielding just 13 hits and a minuscule two walks over 17 innings. Facing a top-heavy Yankees order that lacks depth, Seymour’s fly-ball-heavy approach is perfectly insulated by a pitcher-friendly park and a Tampa Bay outfield defense that leads the American League with 27 Defensive Runs Saved. Conversely, Yankees starter Will Warren has hit a major wall, pitching to a 5.04 ERA and a bloated 1.70 WHIP over his last five starts while failing to finish the sixth inning in any of those outings. Warren relies heavily on his sinker, which is a massive liability against this specific Tampa Bay lineup. The Rays' core hitters absolutely feast on sinkers, with Yandy Diaz batting .393, Jonathan Aranda hitting .404, and Junior Caminero posting a .368 average against the pitch. This tactical matchup should allow Tampa Bay to generate consistent, early run support and knock Warren out of the game before he can settle in. With the Yankees' high-leverage bullpen option Camilo Doval likely unavailable after a heavy recent workload, any early exit from Warren will force New York to lean on a depleted middle relief. The counter-argument here is that the Yankees won yesterday's opener 5-1 and still possess game-changing power, led by Paul Goldschmidt’s elite 1.162 OPS against lefties. But winning games on just three hits—all home runs—is a highly volatile and unsustainable formula. Without consistent base runners, the bottom half of the New York order, featuring four starters with a sub-.750 OPS, simply cannot sustain the rallies needed to break a pitcher of Seymour's current quality. Once Seymour hands things over to a fully rested back-end bullpen featuring Bryan Baker and his 1.83 ERA, the Rays should slam the door and improve on their spectacular 31-13 home record.

Rays ML-130

CONF

75%

MLB6:40 PM

Mariners @ Marlins

The roof is closed at loanDepot park, and we've got a high-stakes interleague battle as the first-place Seattle Mariners head south to face the surging Miami Marlins. This matchup presents a fascinating battle between the Marlins, who have been dominant in their home fortress with a 28-17 record, and a Mariners team that struggles to find its footing on the road, sitting at 20-24. The starting pitching matchup features two right-handers in highly contrasting situations: Miami's Max Meyer, who is a spectacular 9-1 with a 2.53 ERA on the season, and Seattle's Bryan Woo, who carries a 4.17 ERA but has been plagued by a massive 6.38 ERA on the road. My read tonight is that the Marlins hold a massive tactical and situational advantage that the current price of -120 does not fully capture. While some analytical minds might point to Meyer's 3.75 xERA as a sign of regression compared to his 2.53 actual ERA, his actual home form is undeniable, as he is 5-0 with a 2.13 ERA in Miami and has posted a stingy 1.84 ERA over his last five starts. Meanwhile, Woo has struggled to find consistency on the road and is highly vulnerable to left-handed hitting, allowing a .667 OPS to lefties compared to a .519 OPS to righties. The Marlins are stacking seven left-handed or switch-hitting bats in their lineup tonight, including Kyle Stowers, Griffin Conine, Owen Caissie, and Jakob Marsee, creating a persistent mismatch. Combined with the steady production of Otto Lopez (.346 AVG, .896 OPS) and Xavier Edwards (.302 AVG), the Marlins are built to jump on Woo's primary pitch mix early. The strongest argument against the Marlins lies in the bullpen comparison, where Seattle has a clear edge. If this game remains close late, Miami's high-leverage unit looks vulnerable without the injured Anthony Bender, especially with closer Pete Fairbanks carrying a 7.27 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP against Seattle's highly reliable trio of Gabe Speier, Jose Ferrer, and Andres Munoz. However, Seattle's offense is severely thinned without superstar outfielder Julio Rodriguez and infielder Brendan Donovan, leaving them reliant on replacements like Victor Robles, who carries a .268 SLG and 0 HR. With Meyer commanding the mound at home and the Marlins riding a three-game winning streak as one of baseball's hottest teams, expect Miami to build an early lead and handle business on their home turf.

Marlins ML-120

CONF

68%

MLB6:45 PM

Astros @ Nationals

Under the humid, partly cloudy skies of Nationals Park with a threatening 48% chance of rain, the Houston Astros and Washington Nationals lock horns in a clash of highly volatile pitching and bullpen depth. My read on this game starts with the starting pitchers' deceptive season-long numbers. While Andrew Alvarez carries a shiny 3.05 ERA for the Nationals, his underlying metrics paint a picture of a pitcher teetering on the edge of major regression. His expected ERA of 4.08 is more than a full run higher than his actual ERA, and he has been significantly more vulnerable under the lights, posting a 4.84 ERA in night games compared to 0.95 in day games. Conversely, Astros starter Tatsuya Imai represents a prime positive regression candidate; his bloated 6.14 ERA is heavily contradicted by a 4.90 expected ERA, representing a +1.25 ERA-minus-xERA gap. Despite his surface struggles, Imai possesses elite, raw swing-and-miss stuff—evidenced by an 11.2 K/9 on the season and a mind-boggling 15.4 K/9 over his last five starts—that can completely overpower a lineup when he is on. The critical leverage point in this matchup lies in the middle and late innings. Andrew Alvarez has acted as a short-leash starter, failing to exceed 4.2 innings in any of his last five starts. This early exit guarantees heavy exposure for a Washington bullpen that is already heavily taxed, having thrown nearly 30 more innings than any other relief unit in the majors. With long-relief arms Cade Cavalli and Brad Lord likely unavailable after throwing 63 and 50 pitches respectively on Sunday, the Nationals have a highly vulnerable bridge to cover. On the other side, the Astros' bullpen is in a much stronger position with leverage arms Bryan King (2.08 ERA) and Bryan Abreu (5.90 ERA) fully rested and available. This bullpen disparity becomes a massive structural advantage for Houston in the event of a rain delay. If the 48% risk of precipitation causes a mid-game delay that knocks out both starting pitchers early, the game transforms into a battle of the bullpens where the Nationals are severely outmatched and shorthanded. I recognize the strongest argument for backing the Nationals is their heavily left-handed lineup matching up against Imai's stark platoon splits, as he has surrendered an .826 OPS and 6 home runs to left-handed batters compared to a .596 OPS to righties. Young star James Wood (.980 OPS vs. RHP on the season, and hitting .333 with 4 home runs and 11 RBIs over his last 10 games) is a massive threat. However, the Astros possess a formidable weapon of their own in Yordan Alvarez, who is hitting .289 with 4 home runs and 11 RBIs over his last 10 games. Alvarez is particularly lethal against Andrew Alvarez's primary sinker, carrying an elite .601 xwOBA against that specific pitch. With the Astros offering even money at +100 on the moneyline, we are getting a great price on the team with the deeper bullpen, the positive regression starter, and the clear structural advantage in a potential rain-shortened game. Put your money on the Astros to get it done on the road.

Astros ML+100

CONF

65%

MLB7:10 PM

Royals @ Mets

Welcome to Citi Field, where the setting sun casts long shadows across the diamond as the Kansas City Royals visit the New York Mets for a cross-league showdown under partly cloudy skies. Tonight’s matchup presents a fascinating tactical battle between two teams trying to claw their way back into respectability. At first glance, the starting pitching matchup seems to favor the home side, given Seth Lugo’s recent struggles and the Mets’ left-handed heavy lineup. Lugo has been heavily punished lately, pitching to a 6.04 ERA over his last 5 starts, and his 4.20 season ERA is a major regression candidate compared to his 5.34 xERA. He faces a Mets lineup starting six lefties or switch-hitters who can exploit his severe platoon weakness, where he allows a .295 batting average and .800 OPS to left-handed hitters. On top of that, the Royals’ lineup is fresh off losing core hitters Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, and Kyle Isbel to recent injuries, leaving their bottom-of-the-order looking remarkably thin. However, look past the starting pitchers and the real edge of this game is found in the late-inning depth and infield defense. The Mets are forced into a bullpen game starting Cionel Pérez, a left-hander with a 5.50 ERA and a 6.01 xERA who relies heavily on his 1.96 grounder-to-airout ratio. This is a recipe for disaster behind an experimental Mets infield featuring Bo Bichette at third base and Brett Baty making a rare start at second base. The Mets have committed 60 errors this season, and asking an out-of-position infield to handle Pérez's ground balls is a massive gamble. The Royals, meanwhile, feature a pristine defense anchored by Bobby Witt Jr. and catcher Carter Jensen, who boasts an elite 68.1% caught-stealing rate (15 caught stealings on 22 attempts) to completely freeze the Mets' run game. The deciding factor tonight is bullpen health. The Mets’ relief corps has been pushed to the brink, having fully exhausted their top back-end leverage options over the last forty-eight hours, while high-leverage depth is further depleted by the recent leg injury to Clay Holmes. Conversely, the Royals’ key bullpen arms are completely rested and fresh after a blowout victory yesterday. With a 9 mph wind blowing directly in from left field to help suppress Lugo's fly-ball tendencies, the Royals can navigate the early innings and hand the ball to their rested relief core. With a massive late-game pitching advantage and superior defensive stability, the Royals are the sharp play here. Back the Royals moneyline at +126.

Royals ML+126

CONF

65%

MLB7:10 PM

Phillies @ Reds

The stage is set under the warm Cincinnati skies at Great American Ball Park as the Reds host the Phillies in a high-stakes summer showdown. With 85-degree temperatures and the wind gently blowing out to right field, this hitter-friendly environment is primed for some fireworks. Look, I’m a Reds fan through and through, and I believe in this organization and what this young core is building. When the oddsmakers put a +142 price tag on our boys at home, my sharp bettor instincts tell me the market is overreacting to the name on the other side of the ticket and completely overlooking our real edge tonight. Let's look at the facts. Great American Ball Park is famously a hitter's paradise, and nobody thrives here quite like Elly De La Cruz. He has been an absolute force in Cincinnati, sporting a massive .970 OPS at home compared to just .685 on the road. While Zack Wheeler is an elite starter with an 8-1 record, his 2.36 ERA is running well ahead of his 2.96 xERA. In this hot, humid environment with the wind blowing out, any minor regression from Wheeler is going to leave the yard. The Reds already took two of three from the Phillies earlier this season, including a 9-4 win with Andrew Abbott on the mound. Abbott is a battler who has managed a solid 3.42 ERA over his last five starts, and he knows how to keep this team in games. The loudest argument against backing the Reds tonight is obviously the pitching mismatch on paper and the expectation that the Phillies will bounce back aggressively after yesterday's 15-1 blowout. But baseball is a 162-game marathon, and teams coming off massive blowout losses often struggle to find their footing immediately on the road, while the heavy public money predictably flows to the favorite. The Reds' offense is top-heavy but explosive, and at +142, we are getting a home team that plays with immense energy and has a proven track record of handling the Phillies this year. Trust the home environment, ride the value on a team that matches up better than the price suggests, and let's back the Reds to win outright.

Reds ML+142

CONF

65%

MLB7:40 PM

Red Sox @ White Sox

Under the clear skies of Guaranteed Rate Field, the surging Boston Red Sox look to continue their hot streak as they clash with the American League Central-leading Chicago White Sox. This matchup boils down to a massive starting pitching mismatch and the tactical platoon advantages that favor the visiting side. Boston sends Payton Tolle to the mound, a steady rookie southpaw carrying a 3.39 ERA and a stellar 3.19 xERA, showing his success is backed by strong fundamentals. On the other side, Chicago counters with Noah Schultz, who has struggled immensely to find his footing, posting a 5.86 ERA (5.49 xERA) and a bloated 9.28 ERA over his last five starts while walking 14 batters in his last 21.1 innings. With Schultz also sporting an elevated 11.2% barrel rate, the Red Sox lineup is primed to strike early. The sharpest case for Chicago tonight rests on their exceptional 28-14 home record and a lineup that features elite right-handed bats like Miguel Vargas and Randal Grichuk, who carry 1.060 and 1.012 OPS marks against left-handed pitching, respectively. However, Tolle possesses a unique reverse platoon split that matches up beautifully to neutralize this threat; he holds right-handed hitters to a meager .209 batting average and .626 OPS. Conversely, Schultz is highly vulnerable to right-handed hitting, allowing all five of his home runs this season and a .773 OPS to righties. This leaves him exposed to Boston right-handed power hitters like Willson Contreras, who boasts a .952 OPS against lefties, and Romy Gonzalez with his 1.083 OPS against southpaws. Additionally, the defensive gap between these two teams is too wide to ignore in a park with a 1.04 hitter-friendly factor. With both starters leaning toward fly-ball profiles, a 6 mph wind blowing in from left field makes outfield range the deciding factor in preventing extra-base hits. Boston features an elite outfield defense that ranks third in MLB with 42 DRS, anchored by Wilyer Abreu (7 DRS) and Ceddanne Rafaela (9.7 Def Value). Chicago, meanwhile, ranks near the bottom of the league with a -16 DRS and 44 team errors. Boston’s superior glovework will turn deep fly balls into outs, while Chicago’s leaky defense is bound to let Schultz’s command struggles spiral. Backed by an 8-2 run over their last ten games, the Red Sox at -124 are the superior bet to take care of business on the road.

Red Sox ML-124

CONF

78%

MLB7:40 PM

Guardians @ Twins

The AL Central race heats up under the summer heat tonight at Target Field as the Cleveland Guardians look to snap a two-game skid against their division rivals, the Minnesota Twins. In a matchup where both starting pitchers carry identical 3.86 ERAs, the true edge lies in the hidden details of run prevention and a massive roster disparity. Joey Cantillo takes the mound for Cleveland in sensational form, carrying a 1.88 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over his last four starts. While Minnesota’s Taj Bradley has flashed elite strikeout stuff, he has been highly vulnerable to hard contact with a 46.8% hard-hit rate and a 10.1% barrel rate allowed, and he has struggled significantly under the lights with a 4.70 ERA in night games. The massive wild card tonight is the fresh injury report, which heavily favors Cleveland. The Twins placed superstar Byron Buxton on the 10-day injured list today with a hip injury, leaving them desperately thin alongside the absence of catcher Ryan Jeffers. This forces Minnesota to start Kyler Fedko, who is 0-for-14 in his major-league career, in center field. While Cleveland has their own fresh obstacle to overcome without José Ramírez, where they carry an 8-11 record in his absence, their defensive foundation remains rock solid. In an 87°F game with the wind blowing out, outfield defense is paramount for two fly-ball-heavy pitchers (Cantillo has a 0.83 GO/AO and Bradley is at an extreme 0.59 GO/AO). Cleveland’s top-tier defense (+10 Outs Above Average, 8th in MLB) provides a safety net that Minnesota’s bottom-tier unit—featuring Royce Lewis playing out of position at first base with a -4 Outs Above Average—simply cannot match. Additionally, Patrick Bailey completely neutralizes the running game with a 50.0% caught-stealing rate, while Minnesota’s Victor Caratini sits at a highly vulnerable 17.8%. If this game is close in the later frames, Cleveland holds all the cards. Their rested bullpen is anchored by an elite high-leverage closer in Cade Smith, who boasts a 2.90 ERA and 16 saves, while Minnesota's volatile bullpen has struggled to a 4.78 team ERA. With the Twins' lineup severely depleted by Buxton’s sudden injury, Cleveland's superior catching, elite outfield range, and dominant late-inning arms are set to carry the day. Getting the Guardians at near even-money on the moneyline is the sharp play on tonight’s board.

Guardians ML-106

CONF

72%

MLB7:45 PM

Brewers @ Cardinals

We're under the lights at Busch Stadium for the nightcap of this NL Central twin bill, where a pair of young arms are trying to settle a high-stakes divisional battle. My read is that the Brewers have a massive advantage on the mound that is completely hidden by the surface-level ERAs. Hunter Dobbins has a decent 3.63 ERA over his first two starts, but his underlying metrics reveal a scary 5.52 xERA, paired with a high 53.2% hard-hit rate and a 14.9% barrel rate allowed. Robert Gasser is the exact opposite; his 4.54 ERA is masked by a stellar 3.29 xERA, showing he has pitched far better than his actual record suggests. With Milwaukee's offense in excellent form, they should have no trouble punishing Dobbins' propensity to yield loud, hard-hit contact. The situational advantages for Milwaukee mount even higher when you look at the bullpen and catcher matchups. The St. Louis bullpen is in a state of absolute emergency after playing a nine-inning bullpen game in the afternoon matinee today. To make matters worse, they lost setup man Ryne Stanek to an injury during that Game 1 collapse, adding to yesterday's injury of Justin Bruihl. Meanwhile, Jacob Misiorowski's spectacular seven-inning gem in the matinee left the Brewers' high-leverage arms completely rested and ready. Behind the plate, Ivan Herrera's defensive struggles—evidenced by a 0-for-15 caught-stealing rate—will allow speed threats like Brice Turang and Christian Yelich to run wild on the bases. The strongest counterargument is that the Cardinals are a proud team fighting to avoid a division sweep after three consecutive one-run losses, and Dobbins has pitched well at home in a very small sample. But desperation cannot fix a completely depleted bullpen or resolve a massive platoon vulnerability in the middle of their lineup. Alec Burleson is hitting just .188 with a .453 OPS against lefties, making him a major liability in the five-hole against the southpaw Gasser. With the pitching matchup, bullpen availability, and base-running advantages all tilted heavily toward the road team, getting the Brewers at pick'em odds is the best value on the board tonight.

Brewers ML-108

CONF

82%

MLB8:05 PM

Angels @ Rangers

Inside the climate-controlled comfort of Globe Life Field, the Texas heat stays outside while a massive division battle takes center stage tonight as the Rangers look to claw closer to the top of the AL West. This matchup is a textbook study in situational momentum and structural advantages. The Rangers are resting easy after a much-needed off-day, presenting a completely fresh bullpen to protect their leads. Meanwhile, the Angels are limping into Arlington on a six-game losing streak. They played in Anaheim yesterday and endured an overnight flight to Texas, all while their bullpen is completely gassed after using six relievers in yesterday's game. To make matters worse, they must face Jacob deGrom, who has been incredibly efficient with a 0.99 WHIP and is primed to exploit an impatient Angels lineup that has posted a high 43.5% chase rate over their last three games. The strategic hammer in this game lies in how the Rangers have constructed their lineup to target Jose Soriano. Soriano has been a ticking time bomb all season; while his actual ERA stands at 3.42, his 4.34 xERA and his rocky June—where he registered a 5.34 ERA and walked 18 batters in 28.2 innings—suggest that regression has arrived. Crucially, Soriano struggles mightily against left-handed hitting, allowing a .766 OPS and 10 home runs to lefties. Texas manager Skip Schumaker has stacked his card with six left-handed batters today, including Joc Pederson and Brandon Nimmo, creating an inescapable platoon trap for the young right-hander. Now, the sharpest argument against the Rangers is that deGrom has shown vulnerability under the lights this year, carrying a 4.45 ERA in night games compared to a 1.45 ERA in day games, and Angels shortstop Zach Neto has historically hit him well with a .500 average and a home run in 8 at-bats. But a single hot hitter and a night split can't overcome the compounding fatigue of an overnight flight and a completely depleted bullpen behind Soriano. With Texas highly motivated just 1.5 games back of first place and sending their ace to the mound against a regressing pitcher in a brutal travel spot, backing the Rangers on the moneyline at -166 is the only play that makes sense. Lay the price and trust the rest advantage to carry the day.

Rangers ML-166

CONF

82%

MLB9:40 PM

Diamondbacks @ Padres

The evening air is cooling down at Petco Park as the Diamondbacks and Padres gear up for the second game of this four-game NL West set. Arizona looks to build on yesterday's blowout, while San Diego tries to find answers in the midst of a brutal midsummer slump. My money tonight is going on the Diamondbacks on the moneyline at +102. Yes, Zac Gallen is on the bump, and yes, his recent numbers look like a horror show—surrendering 20 earned runs over his last 16.1 innings for an 11.02 ERA in his last three starts. But the market has overadjusted here, making the free-falling Padres a favorite when their own pitching situation is incredibly unstable. San Diego is forced to use Germán Márquez as an opener before handing things over to Jhony Brito for bulk relief, creating a highly volatile situation for a team that has lost nine of its last ten games. The matchups at the plate heavily favor Arizona early in this game. Márquez has struggled immensely against left-handed pitching, allowing a massive .986 OPS to lefties. That is a glaring green light for Diamondbacks hitters like Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte at the top of the lineup to do damage from the jump. While Brito was excellent in Triple-A last month, transitioning back to the majors against an offense that just put up eight runs yesterday is a tall order. On the other side, Gallen's struggles are real, but Petco Park's pitching-friendly environment (0.92 park factor) and heavy marine air should provide a much-needed buffer for his fly-ball tendencies, helping to keep the ball in the yard. The strongest argument against backing Arizona is obviously Gallen’s collapse and the danger of San Diego's bats like Fernando Tatis Jr. exploiting his vulnerable 93.4 mph fastball. However, even if Gallen gets chased early, Arizona has a far healthier and more reliable bridge in their bullpen, with high-leverage arms like Jonathan Loáisiga (2.36 ERA), Justin Morillo (2.62 ERA), and Yimi Garcia (2.11 ERA) fully rested and ready. San Diego's middle relief is incredibly thin, and getting the ball to closer Mason Miller is going to be a massive chore for them. At +102, we are getting a stable, .500 Diamondbacks team that has thrived as an underdog against a highly tense, struggling Padres squad. Take the plus-money value with Arizona.

Diamondbacks ML+102

CONF

65%

MLB9:45 PM

Blue Jays @ Giants

We’ve got a cool, breezy night on tap at Oracle Park as the Giants look to keep the momentum rolling against a reeling Blue Jays squad. The books are giving Toronto the nod here at -116, likely seduced by Spencer Miles’ pristine 2.83 ERA compared to Trevor McDonald’s 4.42 mark. But that’s a classic trap. Miles is on an incredibly tight leash, averaging just 3.7 innings over his last five starts. That means the Blue Jays are going to have to ask their middle-relief unit to cover more than half the game. Meanwhile, the Giants' bullpen is completely refreshed and ready to go after Landen Roupp’s heroic eight-inning performance in the series opener. Manager Bob Melvin has his entire high-leverage unit rested, which gives the Giants a massive strategic advantage in the late frames. The strongest argument against the Giants is McDonald’s vulnerability to left-handed hitters—where he allows a massive .843 OPS—and the fact that Toronto is stacking six lefties or switch-hitters in their lineup. However, Toronto’s bats are currently in a tailspin, having scored just three total runs over their last four games. They are in a deep contact-quality slump, and with a heavy 12-mph wind blowing inward tonight, they won't have the power to exploit McDonald's splits. On the other side, San Francisco's lineup is peaking, led by Luis Arraez (.330 AVG vs RHP) and Rafael Devers. Back the Giants at near-even money to take advantage of their rested bullpen and superior momentum.

Giants ML-102

CONF

68%

MLB10:10 PM

Rockies @ Dodgers

Under the clear evening skies at Dodger Stadium, the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers look to continue their home dominance as they host the division-rival Colorado Rockies. This matchup features two teams on opposite ends of the National League West standings, setting up a clash where the talent and situational disparity are too stark to ignore. The core of my read tonight rests on the starting pitching mismatch and the devastating platoon advantages the Dodgers possess against Colorado righty Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen has struggled to a 6.91 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP over his 18 starts, but his underlying splits against lefties are particularly disastrous. He has allowed left-handed hitters to post a .365 AVG and a massive 1.063 OPS, including 9 home runs in only 189 at-bats. The Dodgers' confirmed lineup features five high-impact lefties in their top six spots, including Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and Kyle Tucker. This left-handed heavy attack is perfectly optimized to tee off on Lorenzen's 4-seam fastball and sinker early and often. Of course, the sharp counterargument tonight centers on Dodgers starter Justin Wrobleski, whose 2.80 ERA is heavily outrunning his 4.28 expected ERA, suggesting regression is looming. Additionally, the Rockies' offense has been hot in July, and the Dodgers are starting rookie Dalton Rushing behind the plate instead of their regular catcher. However, Colorado's offense loses its teeth outside of Coors Field, and they suffered a massive blow today with key right-handed power threat Hunter Goodman being scratched from the lineup due to a wrist injury. Wrobleski has been outstanding at home with a 2.50 ERA at Dodger Stadium, and he completely neutralizes righties, holding them to a .216 AVG and a .555 OPS. Without Goodman to anchor their right-handed threats, the Rockies will struggle to generate the consistent hard-hit fly balls needed to exploit Wrobleski’s fly-ball tendencies. The disparity becomes even wider when these starters exit. Colorado's bullpen is completely exhausted following an 11-inning marathon last night where multiple key relievers were heavily taxed. Meanwhile, the Dodgers' pen is rested and recently reinforced by the return of Evan Phillips and the addition of Carlos Duran. While the -310 moneyline price is too steep to lay in baseball, taking the Dodgers on the run line at -146 is the sharp play. Los Angeles is 30-15 at home, 8-2 in their last 10, and already holds a 6-2 head-to-head record against the Rockies this season. Expect the Dodgers' offense to jump on Lorenzen early, while their superior bullpen locks down a multi-run home victory.

Dodgers -1.5-146

CONF

82%

Player props

WC · Egypt @ Argentina

Mostafa Shobeir

Mostafa Shobeir is the starting goalkeeper for Egypt, guaranteed to play 90 minutes (and potential extra time) barring injury or red card. Argentina is highly productive, generating 2.03 xG per match and averaging 15.17 shots per game, with a sharp 6.67 finding the target. Egypt is expected to concede possession (Argentina controls 62.5% possession on average) and defend deep, which will force Shobeir into action frequently.

OVER 4 Saves-155

· Argentina averages 6.67 shots on target per match (last 6)
· Egypt concedes 1.36 xGA per match (last 6)
· Break-even probability: >61%

WC · Egypt @ Argentina

Rodrigo De Paul

De Paul is a locked-in starter in Argentina's midfield, leading the team with 17 caps in this cycle. He is expected to play heavy minutes as the engine of Argentina's press and transition. In a game script where Argentina dominates possession (62.5%) and pins Egypt deep in their defensive third, Argentina's central midfielders will find plenty of space at the edge of the penalty box to recycle possession and take shots.

OVER 0.5 Shots-130

· De Paul averages 0.76 shots per match (13 shots in 17 caps)
· Argentina averages 15.17 shots per match (last 6)
· Break-even probability: >57%

MLB · Brewers @ Cardinals

William Contreras

William Contreras is in a prime bounce-back position tonight facing Matt Svanson. Svanson has a 6.69 ERA and 1.67 WHIP, and his reverse platoon split is a major liability: right-handed hitters are absolutely crushing him, batting .342 with a .959 OPS.

OVER 1.5 Hits+185

· Matt Svanson vs RHB: .342 AVG / .959 OPS allowed (79 AB)
· William Contreras season stats: .291 AVG, 95 hits, .294 AVG vs RHP
· Break-even probability at +185 odds: 35.1%

WC · Colombia @ Switzerland

Dan Ndoye

Dan Ndoye is Switzerland's most dynamic and direct forward, recording 3 goals and 9 shots in 4 caps during this international cycle. Switzerland’s offense is highly active, averaging 14 shots and 2.23 xG per match over their last 6 games, and Ndoye is their primary transitional outlet on the wings. To clear the line of 1 shot in each half, he only needs to register a single attempt in the first 45 minutes and another in the second half.

OVER 1 Shot Each Half-110

· 3 goals, 9 shots in 4 caps (2.25 shots/cap) during this cycle
· Switzerland averages 14 shots and 2.23 xG per match over last 6 games
· Market implied probability of 52.4% at -110 odds

WC · Colombia @ Switzerland

James Rodríguez

James Rodríguez is the creative heartbeat of Colombia’s team, holding a complete monopoly over their direct free-kicks, corner kicks, and penalties. During this international cycle, James has recorded 3 goals and 7 assists in 18 caps, meaning he has directly contributed to 10 goals in 18 matches. Colombia averages 1.62 xG and 15.17 shots per match, and entering as the +130 favorite, they are expected to find the back of the net.

OVER 1 Goal Or Assist+155

· 3 goals, 7 assists in 18 caps (55.6% goal contribution rate) during this cycle
· Colombia averages 1.62 xG and 15.17 shots per match over last 6 games
· Market implied probability of 39.2% at +155 odds

MLB · Athletics @ Tigers

Riley Greene

Riley Greene is in an exceptional spot to exceed 1.5 total bases tonight. Greene is having a superb season, batting .292 with an .854 OPS, and he thrives against right-handed pitching, posting a .310 AVG and .889 OPS (including 11 of his 13 home runs). He faces Oakland's right-handed starter J.T.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+101

· Batting .310 AVG and .889 OPS with 11 HR against RHP this season
· J.T. Ginn allows a .251 AVG and .740 OPS to left-handed hitters
· J.T. Ginn has a 3.04 ERA vs a 4.08 xERA (heavy regression candidate)

MLB · Braves @ Pirates

Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds tonight finds himself in a premier hitting environment. At PNC Park, Reynolds is an entirely different hitter, batting .325 with a magnificent .986 OPS compared to a measly .244 AVG on the road. He faces Braves right-hander Hurston Waldrep, who is making only his second start since February elbow surgery.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+135

· Home splits: .325 AVG, .986 OPS, 5 HR in 157 AB
· Opponent Hurston Waldrep: 14.7% walk rate, 1.64 WHIP, and making only 2nd start back from elbow surgery rehab
· Atlanta Bullpen Context: Robert Suarez (IL), Tyler Kinley (paternity), and key arms Raisel Iglesias, Didier Fuentes, and Dylan Lee are likely unavailable/highly limited due to high workloads on Monday

MLB · Yankees @ Rays

Yandy Diaz

1. **THE PICK:** Yandy Diaz OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+127) 2. **MATCHUP:** Will Warren (RHP) vs. Yandy Diaz (RHB) 3. **THE KEY FACTOR:** Diaz is a dominant hitter at Tropicana Field, sporting a .367 AVG and 1.070 OPS at home compared to a .273 AVG on the road.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+127

· Home AVG: .367
· Home OPS: 1.070
· Career vs Warren: .429 AVG (3-for-7)

MLB · Astros @ Nationals

James Wood

James Wood has been a force at the top of the Nationals lineup, averaging 2.55 Hits + Runs + RBIs (HRR) per game this season (235 HRR across 92 games). Over his last 10 games, he is hitting .333 with 4 HR and 11 RBI, and has recorded at least 3 HRR in four of his last five games (totals of 8, 1, 3, 3, and 7).

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-145

· Break-even win probability: 59.2%
· Season average of 2.55 HRR per game (235 HRR in 92 games)
· L10 games: .333 AVG, 4 HR, 11 RBI

MLB · Cubs @ Orioles

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong holds a massive platoon advantage against Shane Baz tonight. PCA crushes right-handers, posting a .286 AVG and .922 OPS with 14 of his 19 home runs coming against RHP. Meanwhile, Baz has struggled to contain lefties in 2026, allowing a .276 AVG and .801 OPS. Batting leadoff for the road Cubs, PCA will see maximum volume, and he has already cleared this line in 4 of his last 5 games.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-149

· Break-even probability: 59.8%
· PCA is batting .286 with a .922 OPS vs RHP
· Shane Baz allows a .276 AVG and .801 OPS to lefties

MLB · Royals @ Mets

Juan Soto

1. **THE PICK:** Juan Soto OVER 0.5 Walks (-128) 2. **MATCHUP:** vs. Seth Lugo (RHP) 3. **THE KEY FACTOR:** Juan Soto is one of the most disciplined hitters in baseball, and tonight's matchup against Seth Lugo heavily favors his patient approach.

OVER 0.5 Walks-128

· Juan Soto: 12 walks in last 10 games (walked in 7 of 10)
· Seth Lugo: vs LHB allowed .295 AVG / .800 OPS (241 AB)
· Seth Lugo: 5.34 xERA vs 4.20 ERA (30 BB in 96.1 IP)

MLB · Royals @ Mets

Bobby Witt Jr.

1. **THE PICK:** Bobby Witt Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+109) 2. **MATCHUP:** vs. Cionel Pérez (LHP) and Mets bullpen 3. **THE KEY FACTOR:** Bobby Witt Jr.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+109

· Bobby Witt Jr.: vs LHP batting .326 with .897 OPS this season
· Bobby Witt Jr.: .314 AVG (11-for-35) with 3 HR in last 10 games
· Mets Bullpen: 5.17 ERA over last 10 games (tired from extra-inning game yesterday)

MLB · Mariners @ Marlins

Otto Lopez

Otto Lopez is on an absolute tear, batting .409 (18-for-44) with 4 HR and 10 RBI in his last 10 games. Over his last 5 games, his total bases are [7, 7, 2, 6, 1], meaning he has cleared 1.5 total bases in 4 of his last 5 games (80%).

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+125

· Otto Lopez is batting .409 (18-for-44) with 4 HR in his last 10 games.
· Lopez has cleared 1.5 total bases in 4 of his last 5 games (TB: 7, 7, 2, 6, 1) and 8 of his last 10.
· Bryan Woo has struggled recently with a 5.97 ERA, allowing 29 hits in 28.2 IP.

MLB · Phillies @ Reds

Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber is one of the most disciplined hitters in baseball, and his recent form shows it, having recorded a walk in 8 of his last 10 games. Tonight, he faces lefty Andrew Abbott, who has experienced severe control issues all season, walking 45 batters in 95.0 IP (amounting to a high 4.26 BB/9 rate) and walking 5 in his previous start. Because Great American Ball Park is a tiny, hitter-friendly venue (1.10 park factor) and Schwarber is a massive threat with 30 home runs on the season, the Reds are highly likely to pitch him with extreme caution, raising his walk probability significantly. The specific risk is Abbott throwing high-volume strikes early or Schwarber expanding his zone in a hitter-friendly park, but the high baseline walk rates for both the hitter and pitcher make the over a very strong play.

OVER 0.5 Walks+105

· Kyle Schwarber has drawn at least 1 walk in 8 of his last 10 games
· Andrew Abbott has allowed 45 walks in 95.0 innings this season (4.26 BB/9)
· Abbott walked 5 batters in his last starting appearance

MLB · Red Sox @ White Sox

Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras enters tonight's matchup in spectacular form, batting .314 with 4 HRs and 13 RBIs in his last 10 games. He has cleared 1.5 total bases in 4 of his last 5 games (logging 4, 4, 3, and 2 bases). Contreras is a dominant force against left-handed pitching, carrying a massive .952 OPS against lefties this season.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+118

· Willson Contreras .284 AVG, 20 HR, .921 OPS this season
· Contreras vs LHP: .275 AVG, .952 OPS, 6 HR
· Contreras last 5 games TB: 4, 4, 3, 2, 0

MLB · Angels @ Rangers

Joc Pederson

Joc Pederson matches up incredibly well against Angels starter José Soriano tonight. Soriano has battled major control issues throughout the season, yielding a very high walk rate of 4.4 BB/9 (49 walks in 100.0 IP).

OVER 0.5 Walks-110

· Soriano 4.4 BB/9 (49 BB in 100.0 IP)
· Soriano vs LHB: .766 OPS, 10 HR allowed
· Joc Pederson vs RHP: .801 OPS, 13 HR

MLB · Guardians @ Twins

Royce Lewis

1. **THE PICK:** Royce Lewis OVER 0.5 hits (-170) 2. **MATCHUP:** vs. Joey Cantillo (LHP) 3.

OVER 0.5 Hits-170

· Hit in 8 of last 10 games (.268 AVG)
· Joey Cantillo vs RHB allows .249 AVG and .750 OPS
· Confirmed batting 4th (cleanup)

MLB · Guardians @ Twins

Chase DeLauter

1. **THE PICK:** Chase DeLauter OVER 0.5 singles (-115) 2. **MATCHUP:** vs. Taj Bradley (RHP) 3. **THE KEY FACTOR:** Chase DeLauter is currently on a tear, batting .375 (15-for-40) over his last 10 games.

OVER 0.5 Singles-115

· .375 AVG (15-for-40) in last 10 games
· At least one single in 4 of last 5 games
· Taj Bradley allows 46.8% hard-hit rate

MLB HR · Phillies @ Reds

Kyle Schwarber

1. **THE PICK:** Kyle Schwarber OVER 0.5 home_runs (+245) 2. **MATCHUP:** Faces left-handed starter Andrew Abbott. 3. **THE KEY FACTOR:** Kyle Schwarber is an elite power threat with 30 home runs on the season in 326 at-bats. While casual bettors often fade left-on-left matchups, Schwarber actually has a stronger profile against southpaws this year, batting .268 with a .957 OPS and 10 home runs in just 123 at-bats against lefties (as opposed to .241 against right-handers).

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+245

· Kyle Schwarber has 30 HR in 326 AB this season.
· Schwarber slashed .268 AVG and a .957 OPS with 10 HR vs LHP.
· Andrew Abbott has a 3.88 ERA but a 4.87 xERA, showing massive regression potential.

MLB HR · Phillies @ Reds

Bryce Harper

1. **THE PICK:** Bryce Harper OVER 0.5 home_runs (+380) 2. **MATCHUP:** Faces left-handed starter Andrew Abbott. 3. **THE KEY FACTOR:** Bryce Harper is a premier home run threat with 20 home runs in 319 at-bats this season. Though he has a pronounced platoon split against left-handers this year—batting just .228 with a .673 OPS and 3 home runs in 123 at-bats—he faces Andrew Abbott, a lefty whose actual performance is ripe for severe regression.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+380

· Bryce Harper has 20 HR in 319 AB this season.
· Harper slashed .228 AVG and a .673 OPS with 3 HR vs LHP.
· Andrew Abbott has a 3.88 ERA but a 4.87 xERA, showing massive regression potential.

MLB · Diamondbacks @ Padres

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Zac Gallen is having a very difficult 2026 season with a 6.36 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, allowing at least 3 earned runs in eight consecutive starts. He is particularly vulnerable to right-handed batters like Tatis, allowing a .294 AVG and a high .873 OPS with 10 home runs this season. Tatis has been reliable with a .282 AVG and has cleared 1.5 total bases in 3 of his last 5 games. 4. PARK/WEATHER CHECK: Game conditions are optimal with temperatures around 78°F at kickoff and clear skies at Petco Park, which helps balls carry better than typical chilly night environments. 5.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+100

· Gallen vs RHB: 0.294 AVG / 0.873 OPS and 10 HR allowed
· Season: 0.282 AVG (98-for-348)
· Over 1.5 TB has cashed in 3 of his last 5 games

MLB · Rockies @ Dodgers

Freddie Freeman

Evaluating both sides, the case for the under centers on walk risk (Lorenzen has walked 20 LHB, and walks do not count toward total bases) or the Rockies turning to a left-handed reliever early. However, the over presents immense value at near-even money.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-105

· vs. RHP: .314 AVG / .944 OPS, 11 HR (229 AB)
· Opponent SP vs LHB: .365 AVG / 1.063 OPS allowed (189 AB)
· Recent form: .333 AVG (13-for-39) with hits in 8 of his last 10 games

MLB · Blue Jays @ Giants

Nathan Lukes

Nathan Lukes represents a significant platoon-advantage play tonight at Oracle Park. While his season-long average is .284, his splits reveal he is a premium hitter against right-handed pitching, batting .322 with an .812 OPS and all 4 of his home runs against righties (compared to a mere .097 against lefties).

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+130

· vs. RHP: .322 AVG / .812 OPS
· Opponent McDonald vs. LHB: .288 AVG / .843 OPS
· Confirmed Lineup Spot: 2nd

Hub research

157

bullpen_fatigueCLE @ MIN
Cleveland Guardians pen: 14.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Cleveland Guardians's bullpen has thrown 14.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 7 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
starter_team_recordATL @ PIT
Pirates 0-8 in Paul Skenes's last 8 starts
Pirates are 0-8 in Paul Skenes's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 8 in a row. He starts tonight.
ballpark_shiftMIL @ STL
Matt Svanson's ERA jumps to 13.17 at Busch Stadium
Matt Svanson carries a 13.17 ERA over 15 games (13.7 IP) at Busch Stadium vs 3.00 across 24 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .406 off him here.
P 1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
platoon_edgeNYY @ TB
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 2nd spot
Paul Goldschmidt's vs. Left line (1.162 OPS, 91 AB) sits well above his .591 mark the other way (131 AB). Tonight's starter Ian Seymour throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
ballpark_shiftARI @ SD
German Marquez owns a 10.38 ERA at Petco Park — 2.75 everywhere else
Across 3 games (13 IP) at Petco Park, German Marquez has a 10.38 ERA against 2.75 at his other parks (19.7 IP). Hitters bat .327 off him here.
P 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
heat_checkHOU @ WSH
Luis Garcia Jr.: 1.516 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 46 PA: a 1.516 OPS versus .869 for the season, 0.647 above his norm. He has 19 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 2.5.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB
platoon_edgeTOR @ SF
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 2nd against Trevor McDonald (RHP)
Over 152 AB vs. Right, Nathan Lukes owns a .812 OPS versus .297 in 31 AB the other way. He sees RHP Trevor McDonald tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
platoon_edgeMIL @ STL
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Jacob Misiorowski (RHP)
Over 234 AB vs. Right, Alec Burleson owns a .969 OPS versus .453 in 101 AB the other way. He sees RHP Jacob Misiorowski tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
ballpark_shiftKC @ NYM
Cionel Perez owns a 0.77 ERA at Citi Field — 7.94 everywhere else
Across 9 games (11.7 IP) at Citi Field, Cionel Perez has a 0.77 ERA against 7.94 at his other parks (22.7 IP). Hitters bat .128 off him here.
P 1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
head_to_headATL @ PIT
Braves are 6-1 vs Pirates this season
Braves lead the season series 6-1 over Pirates. ATL won the last meeting 3-2.
head_to_headMIL @ STL
Brewers are 6-1 vs Cardinals this season
Brewers lead the season series 6-1 over Cardinals. MIL won the last meeting 4-3.
streakCOL @ SUI
Colombia are unbeaten in 6 internationals
Across their last 5 World Cup matches they are 4-1-0 (W-D-W-W-W), carrying a 6-match unbeaten run into this fixture.
P team lost 0-0
streakEGY @ ARG
Argentina are unbeaten in 10 internationals
Across their last 5 World Cup matches they are 3-2-0 (D-W-W-W-D), carrying a 10-match unbeaten run into this fixture.
P team won 2-3
platoon_edgeBOS @ CHW
Randal Grichuk (bats R) gets a LHP from the 2nd spot
Randal Grichuk's vs. Left line (1.012 OPS, 76 AB) sits well above his .600 mark the other way (48 AB). Tonight's starter Payton Tolle throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
platoon_edgeCHC @ BAL
Coby Mayo (bats R) gets a LHP from the 5th spot
Coby Mayo's vs. Left line (1.038 OPS, 66 AB) sits well above his .447 mark the other way (150 AB). Tonight's starter Matthew Boyd throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB, 1 BB
park_weatherTOR @ SF
Wind blowing out 17 mph at Oracle Park tonight
Tonight's reading at Oracle Park — Partly Cloudy, 61°, wind 17 mph, Out To CF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 8.
P final total 12 vs 8 (over lean)
platoon_edgeCLE @ MIN
Travis Bazzana (bats L) hits 1st against Taj Bradley (RHP)
Over 141 AB vs. Right, Travis Bazzana owns a .885 OPS versus .512 in 80 AB the other way. He sees RHP Taj Bradley tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
heat_checkCHC @ BAL
Dansby Swanson: 1.194 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 50 PA: a 1.194 OPS versus .716 for the season, 0.478 above his norm. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
cooling_offNYY @ TB
Ben Rice: .518 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Ian Seymour
Ben Rice's .518 OPS over the last 15 days (52 PA) trails his .925 season mark, down 0.407. Tonight he draws LHP Ian Seymour — his weaker side: a .761 OPS vs LHP across 108 AB.
P 3-for-4, 6 TB
cooling_offOAK @ DET
Nick Kurtz: .489 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Tarik Skubal
Nick Kurtz's .489 OPS over the last 15 days (45 PA) trails his .928 season mark, down 0.439. Tonight he draws LHP Tarik Skubal — his weaker side: a .821 OPS vs LHP across 118 AB.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
platoon_edgeSEA @ MIA
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 1st against Bryan Woo (RHP)
Over 222 AB vs. Right, Liam Hicks owns a .890 OPS versus .573 in 54 AB the other way. He sees RHP Bryan Woo tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 3-for-5, 4 TB
gary_hr_threatsPhillies @ Reds
Kyle Schwarber
1. **THE PICK:** Kyle Schwarber OVER 0.5 home_runs (+245) 2.
P 1 HR — 2-for-4, 5 TB
starter_team_recordTOR @ SF
Giants 2-6 in Trevor McDonald's last 8 starts
Giants are 2-6 in Trevor McDonald's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
cooling_offNYY @ TB
Cody Bellinger: .310 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Ian Seymour
Cody Bellinger's .310 OPS over the last 15 days (48 PA) trails his .765 season mark, down 0.455. Tonight he draws LHP Ian Seymour — his stronger side: a .795 OPS vs LHP across 111 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
heat_checkNYY @ TB
Junior Caminero: 1.286 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.286 OPS spans the last 15 days (55 PA) against a .928 season baseline, a 0.358 swing. He has 26 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
starter_team_recordKC @ NYM
Mets 2-6 in Cionel Perez's last 8 starts
Mets are 2-6 in Cionel Perez's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
gary_hr_threatsBraves @ Pirates
Matt Olson
Matt Olson is on an absolute tear, hitting 4 HR in his last 10 games, including two multi-HR games in that span (two 2-HR games on July 2 and July 5). Skenes is an elite pitcher but has shown vulnerability to the long ball recently, surrendering 5 HR over his last 5 starts (27.0 IP).
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 2 TB
head_to_headCOL @ LAD
Dodgers are 7-3 vs Rockies this season
Dodgers lead the season series 7-3 over Rockies. LAD won the last meeting 8-7.
head_to_headMIL @ STL
Brewers are 5-1 vs Cardinals this season
Brewers lead the season series 5-1 over Cardinals. MIL won the last meeting 4-3.
starter_team_recordARI @ SD
Diamondbacks 2-6 in Zac Gallen's last 8 starts
Diamondbacks are 2-6 in Zac Gallen's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 3 in a row. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordBOS @ CHW
Red Sox 2-6 in Payton Tolle's last 8 starts
Red Sox are 2-6 in Payton Tolle's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
platoon_edgeMIL @ STL
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Brice Turang's vs. Right line (.923 OPS, 236 AB) sits well above his .552 mark the other way (96 AB). Tonight's starter Matt Svanson throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-4, 4 TB
starter_team_recordSEA @ MIA
Marlins 6-2 in Max Meyer's last 8 starts
Marlins are 6-2 in Max Meyer's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordPHI @ CIN
Phillies 6-2 in Zack Wheeler's last 8 starts
Phillies are 6-2 in Zack Wheeler's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 4 in a row. He starts tonight.
starter_team_recordMIL @ STL
Brewers 6-2 in Jacob Misiorowski's last 8 starts
Brewers are 6-2 in Jacob Misiorowski's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
cooling_offTOR @ SF
Casey Schmitt: .461 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Spencer Miles
Casey Schmitt's .461 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .796 season mark, down 0.335. Tonight he draws RHP Spencer Miles — his weaker side: a .776 OPS vs RHP across 234 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
cooling_offATL @ PIT
Drake Baldwin: .454 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Paul Skenes
Drake Baldwin's .454 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .792 season mark, down 0.338. Tonight he draws RHP Paul Skenes — his weaker side: a .765 OPS vs RHP across 153 AB.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkSEA @ MIA
Otto Lopez: 1.273 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (52 PA) he is at a 1.273 OPS, up 0.377 on his .896 season mark. He has 9 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
rest_fatigueHOU @ WSH
WSH's bullpen has covered 17.7 innings over the last 3 games
That is 17.7 relief innings in 3 games, led by Zack Littell (6) and Riley Cornelio (2). HOU's pen has thrown 12 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 6-3
platoon_edgeBOS @ CHW
Miguel Vargas (bats R) draws Payton Tolle (LHP), batting 1st
Miguel Vargas carries a 1.060 OPS vs. Left (89 AB) against .777 the other way (231 AB), and faces LHP Payton Tolle from the 1st spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
gary_hr_threatsRed Sox @ White Sox
Miguel Vargas
Miguel Vargas represents a premium power threat at the top of the Chicago lineup tonight. Vargas is batting .247 with 20 home runs and an .857 OPS in 320 at-bats this season, but his production explodes when facing left-handed pitching.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
starter_formARI @ SD
Zac Gallen: 11.02 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (16.3 IP) he has been tagged for 20 earned runs — a 11.02 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP (1.57 season) against a 6.36 season mark.
P 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
cooling_offARI @ SD
Corbin Carroll: .548 OPS in L15 — draws RHP German Marquez
Corbin Carroll's .548 OPS over the last 15 days (50 PA) trails his .861 season mark, down 0.313. Tonight he draws RHP German Marquez — his weaker side: a .768 OPS vs RHP across 219 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
gary_hr_threatsBraves @ Pirates
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris II is batting .306 on the season with 16 HR in 307 AB. He matches up beautifully against right-handed pitchers, hitting .318 with a .885 OPS and 12 HR in 192 AB (6.25% HR rate).
P 0 HR — 2-for-5, 3 TB
gary_hr_threatsMariners @ Marlins
Kyle Stowers
Kyle Stowers is batting second and has been on an absolute tear, hitting three home runs over his last five games with total bases of 5, 10, 1, 0, and 6. Tonight, he faces Bryan Woo, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled significantly on the road this season, posting a 6.38 ERA over 48.0 innings.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
heat_checkCOL @ LAD
Kyle Karros: 1.263 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (38 PA) he is at a 1.263 OPS, up 0.47 on his .793 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
gary_hr_threatsRed Sox @ White Sox
Willson Contreras
Willson Contreras is having an outstanding 2026 season, batting .284 with 20 home runs and a .921 OPS over 306 at-bats, earning him an American League All-Star selection. Tonight, Contreras finds himself in a highly advantageous matchup against Chicago left-hander Noah Schultz.
P 0 HR — 2-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkARI @ SD
Manny Machado: 1.046 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.046 OPS spans the last 15 days (48 PA) against a .690 season baseline, a 0.356 swing. He has 18 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
rest_fatigueBOS @ CHW
CHW's bullpen has covered 16.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 16.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Erick Fedde (5.3) and Trevor Richards (3.3). BOS's pen has thrown 10.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 8-1
gary_hr_threatsPhillies @ Reds
Bryce Harper
1. **THE PICK:** Bryce Harper OVER 0.5 home_runs (+380) 2.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
starter_formATL @ PIT
Paul Skenes: 7.80 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 7.80 ERA over his last 15 innings with a 1.47 WHIP (1.01 season) — the 3.62 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
starter_formLAA @ TEX
Jose Soriano: 7.62 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 7.62 ERA over his last 13 innings with a 1.92 WHIP (1.32 season) — the 3.42 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
heat_checkTOR @ SF
Rafael Devers: 1.143 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 47 PA: a 1.143 OPS versus .791 for the season, 0.352 above his norm. He has 18 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
bullpen_fatigueLAA @ TEX
Texas Rangers pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Texas Rangers's bullpen has thrown 12.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 5 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
bullpen_fatigueLAA @ TEX
Los Angeles Angels pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Los Angeles Angels's bullpen has thrown 14 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
head_to_headLAA @ TEX
Angels are 4-1 vs Rangers this season
Angels lead the season series 4-1 over Rangers. LAA won the last meeting 2-1.
head_to_headHOU @ WSH
Nationals are 4-1 vs Astros this season
Nationals lead the season series 4-1 over Astros. WSH won the last meeting 12-11.
cooling_offMIL @ STL
Ivan Herrera: .479 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jacob Misiorowski
Ivan Herrera's .479 OPS over the last 15 days (46 PA) trails his .785 season mark, down 0.306. Tonight he draws RHP Jacob Misiorowski — his weaker side: a .756 OPS vs RHP across 229 AB.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
rest_fatigueOAK @ DET
15.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for OAK
Relievers have absorbed 15.7 innings over the last 3 games (Mason Barnett (4) and Kade Morris (3) the heaviest). DET's pen has thrown 8.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 2-6
heat_checkMIL @ STL
Garrett Mitchell: 1.210 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (39 PA) he is at a 1.210 OPS, up 0.385 on his .825 season mark. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-0, 0 TB
bullpen_fatigueBOS @ CHW
Chicago White Sox pen: 16.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Chicago White Sox's bullpen has thrown 16.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 2 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
gary_hr_threatsDiamondbacks @ Padres
Manny Machado
Zac Gallen has struggled severely throughout this season, carrying a 6.36 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. Over his last 5 starts, Gallen has been hit hard, posting an 8.78 ERA while surrendering 6 home runs in 27.2 innings.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
tournamentTO LIFT THE CUP
France head the title market at +175
France are the market's outright World Cup favourite at +175. Spain (+340) and Argentina (+430) are the next shortest.
cooling_offPHI @ CIN
JJ Bleday: .423 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Zack Wheeler
JJ Bleday's .423 OPS over the last 15 days (42 PA) trails his .811 season mark, down 0.388. Tonight he draws RHP Zack Wheeler — his stronger side: a .866 OPS vs RHP across 159 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
streakingNYY @ TB
TB games have gone UNDER 4 straight
Tampa Bay Rays games have stayed UNDER 4 straight — just 6.3 runs a night against an average line of 7.8. Tonight's number sits at 8.
P final total 10 vs 8
streakingMIL @ STL
STL games have gone UNDER 4 straight
4 straight unders for STL — their games are producing only 5.8 runs against numbers around 8.3. Tonight's number sits at 8.5.
P final total 12 vs 8.5
rest_fatigueARI @ SD
ARI's pen has logged 14.7 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 14.7 innings out of the pen — Jonathan Loaisiga (2.7) and Kevin Ginkel (2) carried the load. SD's pen has thrown 13 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 1-4
heat_checkSEA @ MIA
Kyle Stowers: 1.080 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (50 PA) he is at a 1.080 OPS, up 0.276 on his .804 season mark. He has 11 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
cooling_offCLE @ MIN
Travis Bazzana: .440 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Taj Bradley
Travis Bazzana's .440 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .750 season mark, down 0.31. Tonight he draws RHP Taj Bradley — his stronger side: a .885 OPS vs RHP across 141 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
heat_checkATL @ PIT
Nick Gonzales: 1.041 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 47 PA: a 1.041 OPS versus .766 for the season, 0.275 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
rest_fatigueCLE @ MIN
14.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for CLE
Relievers have absorbed 14.3 innings over the last 3 games (Hunter Gaddis (3) and Franco Aleman (2.3) the heaviest). MIN's pen has thrown 10.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 1-3
heat_checkATL @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez: 1.310 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 44 PA: a 1.310 OPS versus 1.021 for the season, 0.289 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
ballpark_shiftNYY @ TB
Ian Seymour's ERA drops to 2.73 at Tropicana Field
Ian Seymour carries a 2.73 ERA over 17 games (33 IP) at Tropicana Field vs 5.87 across 23 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .152 off him here.
P 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 12 K
xg_recapNOR @ BRA
Brazil out-created the field but didn't win
Brazil won the xG battle 2.8–0.8 yet lost to Norway (1–2). The underlying numbers favoured them — a side the result flattered to deceive.
rest_fatigueLAA @ TEX
LAA's pen has logged 14 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 14 innings out of the pen — Jose Fermin (3) and Mitch Farris (3) carried the load. TEX's pen has thrown 12.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 3-8
rest_fatigueCHC @ BAL
14 bullpen innings in 3 games for CHC
Relievers have absorbed 14 innings over the last 3 games (Bryse Wilson (3.3) and Drew Pomeranz (2) the heaviest). BAL's pen has thrown 8.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 5-2
bullpen_fatigueHOU @ WSH
Washington Nationals pen: 17.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Washington Nationals's bullpen has thrown 17.7 innings across their last 3 games. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
bullpen_fatigueCHC @ BAL
Chicago Cubs pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Chicago Cubs's bullpen has thrown 14 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
regression_watchPHI @ CIN
Edmundo Sosa: .216 AVG vs .288 xBA
Edmundo Sosa's .216 average comes against a .288 expected (xBA) on 150 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .274 against a .344 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
rest_fatigueATL @ PIT
13.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for ATL
Relievers have absorbed 13.7 innings over the last 3 games (JR Ritchie (3) and Dylan Lee (2) the heaviest). PIT's pen has thrown 10.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 4-12
running_gameMIL @ STL
Green light: Milwaukee Brewers run, and Ivan Herrera has caught just 0%
Milwaukee Brewers steal 0.9 bags a game (85 on the season) and Ivan Herrera has thrown out 0 of 25 runners (0%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 0 bases
cooling_offKC @ NYM
Jac Caglianone: .543 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (49 PA) he is at a .543 OPS, down 0.239 from his .782 season mark.
P 1-for-6, 2 TB
regression_tomorrowMIL @ STL
Michael McGreevy: 3.12 ERA vs 5.59 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIL. A 3.12 ERA against a 5.59 expected ERA (2.48 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .237 vs .292 expected.
heat_checkOAK @ DET
Riley Greene: 1.095 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 46 PA: a 1.095 OPS versus .854 for the season, 0.241 above his norm. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
tournamentPATH TO THE FINAL
Spain are the market's pick to reach the final from the other half
Behind the outright favourite, Spain carry the shortest price to reach the final at +150 — the side the market most expects to come through the other half of the bracket.
tournamentCOL @ SUI
Switzerland vs Colombia: Round of 16 stakes
This is a round of 16 tie — win or go home. The market has it Switzerland +245 / the draw +210 / Colombia +125.
tournamentPATH TO THE FINAL
England are the market's pick to reach the final from the other half
Behind the outright favourite, England carry the shortest price to reach the final at +145 — the side the market most expects to come through the other half of the bracket.
tournamentPATH TO THE FINAL
Argentina are the market's pick to reach the final from the other half
Behind the outright favourite, Argentina carry the shortest price to reach the final at +125 — the side the market most expects to come through the other half of the bracket.
tournamentEGY @ ARG
Argentina vs Egypt: Round of 16 stakes
This is a round of 16 tie — win or go home. The market has it Argentina -300 / the draw +390 / Egypt +900.
cooling_offMIL @ STL
Christian Yelich: .449 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Matt Svanson
Christian Yelich's .449 OPS over the last 15 days (43 PA) trails his .700 season mark, down 0.251. Tonight he draws RHP Matt Svanson — his stronger side: a .711 OPS vs RHP across 153 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
starter_formARI @ SD
German Marquez: 8.36 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 14 innings, 13 earned runs, 13 hits. That 8.36 ERA runs 2.57 over his 5.79 season number.
P 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
platoon_edgeOAK @ DET
Zach McKinstry (bats L) hits 6th against J.T. Ginn (RHP)
Over 167 AB vs. Right, Zach McKinstry owns a .599 OPS versus .388 in 32 AB the other way. He sees RHP J.T. Ginn tonight hitting 6th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
xg_regressionEGY @ ARG
Argentina are finishing above their chances
Argentina are scoring 2.8/match on 2.0 xG — 0.7 goals/match above expected across 4 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
starter_formCHC @ BAL
Matthew Boyd: 2.87 ERA over his last 3 starts
He has allowed 5 earned runs over his last 15.7 innings (2.87 ERA) with a 1.34 WHIP (1.40 season) — a different pitcher than the 5.08 season line says.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
regression_watchOAK @ DET
Zack Gelof: .282 AVG vs .233 xBA
Zack Gelof is hitting .282 against a .233 expected average (xBA) over 236 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .361 against a .300 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
regression_watchATL @ PIT
Jake Mangum: .306 AVG vs .255 xBA
Across 230 plate appearances, Jake Mangum carries a .306 average versus a .255 xBA. His wOBA sits at .322 against a .281 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
cooling_offOAK @ DET
Dillon Dingler: .664 OPS in L15 — draws RHP J.T. Ginn
Dillon Dingler's .664 OPS over the last 15 days (53 PA) trails his .847 season mark, down 0.183. Tonight he draws RHP J.T. Ginn — his stronger side: a .889 OPS vs RHP across 223 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
regression_watchKC @ NYM
Francisco Lindor: .216 AVG vs .265 xBA
Francisco Lindor is hitting .216 against a .265 expected average (xBA) over 150 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .297 against a .348 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
ballpark_shiftOAK @ DET
Tarik Skubal owns a 4.44 ERA at Comerica Park — 2.40 everywhere else
Across 4 games (24.3 IP) at Comerica Park, Tarik Skubal has a 4.44 ERA against 2.40 at his other parks (41.3 IP). Hitters bat .222 off him here.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
regression_watchCOL @ LAD
Justin Wrobleski: 2.8 ERA vs 4.28 xERA
Justin Wrobleski carries a 2.8 ERA against a 4.28 expected ERA (1.48 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .217 off him vs a .269 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
regression_watchCOL @ LAD
TJ Rumfield: .297 AVG vs .251 xBA
TJ Rumfield's .297 average comes against a .251 expected (xBA) on 360 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .376 against a .322 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
regression_watchSEA @ MIA
Otto Lopez: .346 AVG vs .300 xBA
Otto Lopez is hitting .346 against a .300 expected average (xBA) over 383 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .385 against a .344 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
starter_formBOS @ CHW
Noah Schultz: 7.90 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 7.90 ERA over his last 13.7 innings with a 1.32 WHIP (1.35 season) — the 5.86 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 5 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
regression_watchHOU @ WSH
Keibert Ruiz: .285 AVG vs .237 xBA
Keibert Ruiz's .285 average comes against a .237 expected (xBA) on 197 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .339 against a .280 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
fantasy_pickupsARI @ SD
Gavin Sheets
Pickup vs Zac Gallen (6.28 xERA) — .776 OPS, bats 5th.
running_gameMIL @ STL
St. Louis Cardinals like to run — William Contreras (45% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
William Contreras owns a 45% caught-stealing rate (17 of 38) and St. Louis Cardinals run anyway — 0.6 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P St. Louis Cardinals stole 0 bases
fantasy_pickupsMIL @ STL
Garrett Mitchell
Pickup vs Matt Svanson (5.78 xERA) — .825 OPS, bats 6th.
platoon_edgeOAK @ DET
Dillon Dingler (bats R) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Dillon Dingler's vs. Right line (.889 OPS, 223 AB) sits well above his .745 mark the other way (90 AB). Tonight's starter J.T. Ginn throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
regression_watchARI @ SD
Jake Cronenworth: .179 AVG vs .222 xBA
Across 142 plate appearances, Jake Cronenworth carries a .179 average versus a .222 xBA. His wOBA sits at .251 against a .297 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB
fantasy_pickupsBOS @ CHW
Romy Gonzalez
Pickup vs Noah Schultz (5.49 xERA) — .850 OPS, bats 5th.
xg_recapEGY @ ARG
Argentina created the better chances
Argentina led the xG 2.9–1.0 and took the result to match (3–2).
fantasy_pickupsMIL @ STL
Brice Turang
Pickup vs Matt Svanson (5.78 xERA) — .817 OPS, bats 3rd.
xg_recapGHA @ COL
Colombia created the better chances
Colombia led the xG 2.2–0.3 and took the result to match (1–0).
regression_watchCOL @ LAD
Michael Lorenzen: 6.91 ERA vs 5.59 xERA
Michael Lorenzen carries a 6.91 ERA against a 5.59 expected ERA (1.32 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .335 off him vs a .294 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
tournamentSUREST TO ADVANCE
Côte d'Ivoire are the surest bet to advance
Côte d'Ivoire are -10000 to escape their group out of Group E — the shortest to-advance price on the board.
regression_watchMIL @ STL
Jackson Chourio: .292 AVG vs .252 xBA
Across 255 plate appearances, Jackson Chourio carries a .292 average versus a .252 xBA. His wOBA sits at .375 against a .340 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
xg_regressionCOL @ SUI
Colombia have created more than they've scored
Colombia are scoring 1.0/match on 1.5 xG — 0.5 goals/match below expected across 5 matches. The chances are there; they're due for the finishing to catch up.
regression_watchHOU @ WSH
Tatsuya Imai: 6.14 ERA vs 4.9 xERA
Tatsuya Imai carries a 6.14 ERA against a 4.9 expected ERA (1.25 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .228 off him vs a .231 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
regression_watchMIL @ STL
Robert Gasser: 4.54 ERA vs 3.29 xERA
Robert Gasser carries a 4.54 ERA against a 3.29 expected ERA (1.25 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .243 off him vs a .206 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
regression_watchSEA @ MIA
Max Meyer: 2.53 ERA vs 3.75 xERA
Max Meyer carries a 2.53 ERA against a 3.75 expected ERA (1.22 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .205 off him vs a .227 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
running_gameKC @ NYM
Kansas City Royals like to run — Luis Torrens (40% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Kansas City Royals attempt 1 steals a game, but Luis Torrens has cut down 12 of 30 runners (40%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Kansas City Royals stole 1 base
regression_watchKC @ NYM
Seth Lugo: 4.2 ERA vs 5.34 xERA
Seth Lugo carries a 4.2 ERA against a 5.34 expected ERA (1.14 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .278 off him vs a .281 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
running_gameSEA @ MIA
Seattle Mariners like to run — Joe Mack (41% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Joe Mack owns a 41% caught-stealing rate (16 of 39) and Seattle Mariners run anyway — 0.7 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Seattle Mariners stole 0 bases
fantasy_pickupsTOR @ SF
Spencer Miles
Streamer vs SF — 3.29 xERA · 9.2 K/9 · 1.04 WHIP.
ballpark_shiftPHI @ CIN
At Great American Ball Park, Andrew Abbott pitches to a 4.75 ERA
Andrew Abbott at Great American Ball Park: 4.75 ERA over 41.7 innings (8G) — 3.21 on a 53.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .269 off him here.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
fantasy_pickupsBOS @ CHW
Payton Tolle
Streamer vs CHW — 3.19 xERA · 9 K/9 · 1.12 WHIP.
fantasy_pickupsMIL @ STL
William Contreras
Pickup vs Matt Svanson (5.78 xERA) — .765 OPS, bats 4th.
regression_tomorrowSEA @ MIA
Tyler Phillips: 3.52 ERA vs 4.81 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs SEA. A 3.52 ERA against a 4.81 expected ERA (1.29 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .240 vs .259 expected.
regression_tomorrowKC @ NYM
Christian Scott: 3.49 ERA vs 4.74 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs KC. A 3.49 ERA against a 4.74 expected ERA (1.25 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .223 vs .241 expected.
regression_tomorrowNYY @ TB
Shane McClanahan: 3.05 ERA vs 4.28 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs NYY. A 3.05 ERA against a 4.28 expected ERA (1.23 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .217 vs .247 expected.
ballpark_shiftATL @ PIT
At PNC Park, Paul Skenes pitches to a 3.02 ERA
Paul Skenes at PNC Park: 3.02 ERA over 56.7 innings (10G) — 4.46 on a 40.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .200 off him here.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
xg_recapENG @ MEX
Mexico dominated the ball but didn't win
Mexico held 67% of possession yet lost to England (2–3) — control without the cutting edge.
fantasy_pickupsSEA @ MIA
Bryan Woo
Streamer vs MIA — 3.34 xERA · 8.8 K/9 · 1.03 WHIP.
running_gameSEA @ MIA
Miami Marlins like to run — Cal Raleigh (34% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Cal Raleigh owns a 34% caught-stealing rate (11 of 32) and Miami Marlins run anyway — 1.1 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Miami Marlins stole 1 base
regression_tomorrowOAK @ DET
Jeffrey Springs: 5.79 ERA vs 4.61 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs DET. A 5.79 ERA against a 4.61 expected ERA (1.18 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .262 vs .247 expected.
regression_tomorrowHOU @ WSH
Foster Griffin: 2.87 ERA vs 4.02 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs HOU. A 2.87 ERA against a 4.02 expected ERA (1.15 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .210 vs .242 expected.
ownedLAA @ TEX
Jorge Soler vs Jacob deGrom: .300
Jorge Soler has gone 3-for-10 (.300) across 10 career at-bats off Jacob deGrom, with 1 HR. They meet again tonight. He enters steady (.662 OPS, L15).
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
regression_tomorrowARI @ SD
Michael King: 3.52 ERA vs 4.55 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs ARI. A 3.52 ERA against a 4.55 expected ERA (1.03 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .213 vs .247 expected.
regression_tomorrowOAK @ DET
Troy Melton: 2.04 ERA vs 3.07 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs OAK. A 2.04 ERA against a 3.07 expected ERA (1.02 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .162 vs .216 expected.
fantasy_pickupsMIL @ STL
Robert Gasser
Streamer vs STL — 3.29 xERA · 9.1 K/9 · 1.29 WHIP.
first_inningNYY @ TB
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of NYY @ TB
TB games have produced a first-inning run in 7 of their last 10; NYY games in 7 of 10. Early runs have been the rule, not the exception.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
regression_tomorrowBOS @ CHW
Davis Martin: 3.08 ERA vs 4.11 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs BOS. A 3.08 ERA against a 4.11 expected ERA (1.03 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .254 vs .261 expected.
heat_checkMIL @ STL
Jose Fermin: .851 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 34 PA: a .851 OPS versus .727 for the season, 0.124 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 2.5.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB
regression_tomorrowHOU @ WSH
Spencer Arrighetti: 3.81 ERA vs 4.71 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs WSH. A 3.81 ERA against a 4.71 expected ERA (0.9 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .208 vs .236 expected.
running_gameCLE @ MIN
Green light: Cleveland Guardians run, and Victor Caratini has caught just 15%
Cleveland Guardians steal 0.9 bags a game (84 on the season) and Victor Caratini has thrown out 8 of 53 runners (15%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
P Cleveland Guardians stole 0 bases
ballpark_shiftHOU @ WSH
At Nationals Park, Andrew Alvarez pitches to a 3.52 ERA
Andrew Alvarez at Nationals Park: 3.52 ERA over 23 innings (6G) — 2.45 on a 18.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .261 off him here.
P 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
first_inningSEA @ MIA
SEA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Seattle Mariners have scored in the first inning just 0 times in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningCOL @ LAD
COL strike first: 1st-inning runs in 8 of their last 10
Colorado Rockies have put up a first-inning run in 8 of their last 10 games — they jump on starters early and the YRFI side of their games has been doing the work.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
ballparkEGY @ ARG
Argentina vs Egypt: indoors at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Mercedes-Benz Stadium is a closed-roof venue — closed roof with air conditioning. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
ballparkCOL @ SUI
Switzerland vs Colombia: indoors at BC Place
BC Place is a retractable-roof venue — retractable roof, mild Pacific climate. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
running_gameCLE @ MIN
Minnesota Twins like to run — Patrick Bailey (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Patrick Bailey owns a 33% caught-stealing rate (16 of 48) and Minnesota Twins run anyway — 0.6 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Minnesota Twins stole 0 bases
running_gameBOS @ CHW
Green light: Chicago White Sox run, and Connor Wong has caught just 16%
Connor Wong is catching tonight at 16% on the season (3-for-19 throwing), and Chicago White Sox attempt 0.9 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Chicago White Sox stole 1 base
situationalEgypt @ Argentina
Argentina v Egypt: lineup in doubt
Projected XI — but fatouh is a game-time call. Confirmed sheet posts ~2h before kickoff.
situationalColombia @ Switzerland
Switzerland v Colombia: lineup in doubt
Projected XI — but vargas, aebischer are a game-time call. Confirmed sheet posts ~2h before kickoff.
first_inningCLE @ MIN
MIN strike first: 1st-inning runs in 7 of their last 10
Minnesota Twins have put up a first-inning run in 7 of their last 10 games — they jump on starters early and the YRFI side of their games has been doing the work.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningARI @ SD
ARI strike first: 1st-inning runs in 7 of their last 10
Arizona Diamondbacks have put up a first-inning run in 7 of their last 10 games — they jump on starters early and the YRFI side of their games has been doing the work.
P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st
first_inningKC @ NYM
NYM have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
New York Mets have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 3 in the 1st

Graded results

Games

L
Braves ML +128
MLB · 4-12
L
Argentina -1.5 -105
WC · 2-3
W
Over 2.5 -105
WC · 2-3
L
Brewers -1.5 -118
MLB · 4-3
W
Rays ML -130
MLB · 4-6
W
Brewers ML -108
MLB · 4-3
L
Colombia ML +130
WC · 0-0
W
Under 2.5 -160
WC · 0-0
W
Tigers -1.5 (112) +100
MLB · 2-6
W
Astros ML +100
MLB · 6-3
W
Marlins ML -120
MLB · 5-6
W
Cubs ML -112
MLB · 5-2
L
Guardians ML -106
MLB · 1-3
W
Royals ML +126
MLB · 16-12
L
Reds ML +142
MLB · 4-1
W
Red Sox ML -124
MLB · 8-1
W
Rangers ML -166
MLB · 3-8
L
Dodgers -1.5 -146
MLB · 4-3
L
Diamondbacks ML +102
MLB · 1-4
L
Giants ML -102
MLB · 9-3

Props

L
Bobby Witt Jr. · over
Royals @ Mets · Actual 1
L
Bryan Reynolds · over
Braves @ Pirates · Actual 0
L
Bryce Harper · over
Phillies @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Chase DeLauter · over
Guardians @ Twins · Actual 1
W
Dan Ndoye · over
Colombia @ Switzerland · Actual 2
W
Fernando Tatis Jr. · over
Diamondbacks @ Padres · Actual 2
W
Freddie Freeman · over
Rockies @ Dodgers · Actual 2
L
James Rodríguez · over
Colombia @ Switzerland · Actual 0
W
James Wood · over
Astros @ Nationals · Actual 5
L
Joc Pederson · over
Angels @ Rangers · Actual 0
L
Juan Soto · over
Royals @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Kyle Schwarber · over
Phillies @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Kyle Schwarber · over
Phillies @ Reds · Actual 1
L
Mostafa Shobeir · over
Egypt @ Argentina · Actual 4
L
Nathan Lukes · over
Blue Jays @ Giants · Actual 1
L
Otto Lopez · over
Mariners @ Marlins · Actual 1
W
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Cubs @ Orioles · Actual 3
L
Riley Greene · over
Athletics @ Tigers · Actual 0
W
Rodrigo De Paul · over
Egypt @ Argentina · Actual 1
L
Royce Lewis · over
Guardians @ Twins · Actual 0
L
William Contreras · over
Brewers @ Cardinals · Actual 0
W
Willson Contreras · over
Red Sox @ White Sox · Actual 3
W
Yandy Diaz · over
Yankees @ Rays · Actual 5