Sports Picks Archive — Monday, July 6, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Royals· -128

The stage is set at a hot Kauffman Stadium as the Philadelphia Phillies and Kansas City Royals meet for a high-stakes series finale. With the moneyline sitting at Phillies -200 and the run line at Phillies -1.5 (-128), the market is heavily backing Philadelphia's Cy Young candidate, and for good reason. While Cristopher Sánchez is slightly overperforming his 2.91 xERA with a pristine 2.00 ERA this season, he represents a monumental mound advantage over Noah Cameron, who has surrendered 18 earned runs over his last four starts. Cameron's recent implosion has ballooned his season ERA to 4.95, and his poor 12:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last 18.0 innings indicates a severe loss of command that a disciplined Phillies lineup is primed to exploit. The matchup becomes even more lopsided when looking at the platoon splits. Cameron has been highly vulnerable against left-handed hitters, allowing a .316 average and a .873 OPS to lefties. The Phillies feature premier left-handed power in Kyle Schwarber, who carries a .936 season OPS and has slugged a massive .967 OPS against left-handed pitching, and Brandon Marsh, who enters today's game with a .309 average. While some might point to Kauffman Stadium's 0.94 park factor and the 5–7 mph wind blowing in from center field as a safety net for Cameron’s fly-ball tendency (0.77 GO/AO), the sheer quality of contact he is allowing will make it difficult to keep Philadelphia's bats quiet. Meanwhile, Sánchez’s elite 1.66 ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio insulates him from park factors entirely. The final blow to Kansas City's chances is their heavily fatigued bullpen, which has posted a poor 5.28 ERA this season. Following an intense 18-inning doubleheader yesterday, the Royals' relief corps is running on fumes, with several of their top arms already fatigued. On the other side, Philadelphia's bullpen is in a much healthier state to secure a lead. While the Royals' +168 price offers a tempting payout, and Bobby Witt Jr. remains a dangerous threat with his .829 season OPS, the lack of depth behind him in a depleted Royals lineup makes it hard to foresee an upset. Lay the runs with a far superior, well-rested Phillies team on the run line.

The matchup becomes even more lopsided when looking at the platoon splits. Cameron has been highly vulnerable against left-handed hitters, allowing a .316 average and a .873 OPS to lefties. The Phillies feature premier left-handed power in Kyle Schwarber, who carries a .936 season OPS and has slugged a massive .967 OPS against left-handed pitching, and Brandon Marsh, who enters today's game with a .309 average. While some might point to Kauffman Stadium's 0.94 park factor and the 5–7 mph wind blowing in from center field as a safety net for Cameron’s fly-ball tendency (0.77 GO/AO), the sheer quality of contact he is allowing will make it difficult to keep Philadelphia's bats quiet. Meanwhile, Sánchez’s elite 1.66 ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio insulates him from park factors entirely.

The final blow to Kansas City's chances is their heavily fatigued bullpen, which has posted a poor 5.28 ERA this season. Following an intense 18-inning doubleheader yesterday, the Royals' relief corps is running on fumes, with several of their top arms already fatigued. On the other side, Philadelphia's bullpen is in a much healthier state to secure a lead. While the Royals' +168 price offers a tempting payout, and Bobby Witt Jr. remains a dangerous threat with his .829 season OPS, the lack of depth behind him in a depleted Royals lineup makes it hard to foresee an upset. Lay the runs with a far superior, well-rested Phillies team on the run line.

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GARY'S PICK

WCvs Spain· -115

The roof is closed at AT&T Stadium as two European giants, Portugal and Spain, take the pitch in Arlington, Texas, for a high-stakes World Cup Round of 16 clash on Monday, July 6, 2026. This match has all the ingredients of a highly competitive, razor-thin battle where physical conditioning and scheduling play a massive, underappreciated role. The primary factor tilting this match in Portugal's favor is the stark difference in rest. Portugal enters this fixture with four full days of recovery after their Round of 32 victory on July 2. Spain, by contrast, is on a brutal 48-hour turnaround after playing on July 4. In a high-intensity tournament like the World Cup, a two-day rest differential is massive, especially when facing a side as physically robust and fully healthy as Portugal. While Spain dominates possession with 67.8% of the ball, their ability to sustain a high-volume press over 90 minutes will be heavily compromised by tired legs. Portugal's deep roster and fully rested squad, including key midfielder Bruno Fernandes, have the freshness to maintain tactical discipline and exploit Spain's fatigued transition defense. The market is overpaying for Spain's pristine defensive record—four consecutive clean sheets and a tiny 0.22 xGA in tournament play—while failing to adjust for the situational fatigue. Additionally, Spain's dynamic winger Nico Williams is a game-time decision with an adductor injury, which further threatens to blunt their attack. Historically, this matchup has been defined by extreme parity, with five of the last six competitive meetings since 2018 ending in a draw after 90 minutes. Portugal’s compact defensive structure and 1.04 xGA will match up well against a tired Spanish side. Taking Portugal +0.5 at -115 provides a beautiful margin of safety, cashing on both a Portugal win in regulation and the highly probable draw.

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GARY'S PICK

WCSpain @ Portugal· +100

The roof is closed at AT&T Stadium as two European giants, Portugal and Spain, take the pitch in Arlington, Texas, for a high-stakes World Cup Round of 16 clash on Monday, July 6, 2026. With a spot in the Quarterfinals on the line, expect a tactical, high-wire battle where defensive discipline and physical conservation are the top priorities. Everything about this matchup screams a low-scoring, cagey affair. Spain enters this knockout round with a historically elite defensive profile, having yet to concede a single goal in this World Cup while limiting opponents to a mere 0.22 xGA per match. Spain's possession-heavy style (67.8%) is designed to control matches and minimize threat, a strategy they will rely on even more heavily tonight to cope with their tight 48-hour rest turnaround. Portugal is similarly organized, and with a fully fit Rúben Dias anchoring their defense, they have the physical capacity to sit in a disciplined mid-block and choke out central channels. Neither side will be eager to take early risks in a single-elimination match of this magnitude. The counter-argument to the Under is that both teams are averaging 2.0 goals per game in this tournament. However, those averages are heavily inflated by high-variance group stage games—such as Portugal's 5-0 win over Uzbekistan and Spain's 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia. When these two teams meet, the offense historically dries up; four of their last five meetings have featured two or fewer goals, including two scoreless stalemates. With Spain's Nico Williams dealing with an adductor injury and both sides fatigued from travel and the tournament grind, clear-cut chances will be at a premium. Grab the Under 2.5 goals at the even-money price of 100 before the market corrects.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Rays· -118

Under the dome at Tropicana Field, the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays host their long-time division rivals, the New York Yankees, in a high-stakes American League East showdown. It's a classic battle of current momentum versus starting pitching pedigree as the Yankees try to stop their recent slide behind their rookie ace. My game script tonight revolves around Cam Schlittler acting as the ultimate stopper for the Yankees. Schlittler has been sensational this season, carrying an 8-5 record with a 2.08 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and 123 strikeouts over 104.0 IP. His metrics are completely elite, as evidenced by a 3.14 xERA and a .258 opponent wOBA (xwOBA .277). While the market has drifted toward the red-hot Rays—who are 8-2 in their last 10 games compared to the Yankees' 1-9 slump—it is overpaying for Griffin Jax’s highly fragile season numbers. Jax is 4-5 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 60.0 IP, but his 5.37 xERA and a .324 opponent wOBA (xwOBA .354) indicate extreme run-sequencing luck. Tonight, that luck runs out because the Yankees' lineup is optimized to exploit Jax's biggest weakness. Jax has struggled mightily against left-handed hitting, allowing a .276 AVG and a .801 OPS (7 HR) to lefties, compared to a .216 AVG and .665 OPS (4 HR) against righties. In comparison, Schlittler dominates both sides, allowing a .213 AVG and a .609 OPS (5 HR) to lefties, and a .195 AVG and .555 OPS (5 HR) to righties. New York is starting seven left-handed or switch hitters tonight, creating a relentless platoon advantage that will expose Jax early. The strongest argument against backing the Yankees is their gassed bullpen, with key bridge relievers like Camilo Doval, Jake Bird, and Paul Blackburn likely unavailable due to back-to-back appearances on July 4-5. In contrast, the Rays have a pristine, fully rested late-inning duo in closer Bryan Baker (23 SV, 1.83 ERA, 0.82 WHIP) and setup man Kevin Kelly (18 HLD, 2.41 ERA), who have not pitched since July 4. However, Schlittler’s exceptional durability and ability to suppress hard-hit contact (8.6% barrel rate and 40.6% hard-hit rate over 266 BBE, compared to Jax's 10.7% barrel rate and 41.4% hard-hit rate over 169 BBE) allows him to pitch deep and bridge the gap directly to rested late-inning arms like David Bednar (17 SV, 3.00 ERA) and Fernando Cruz (2.39 ERA). Behind the plate, Yankees catcher Austin Wells provides superior run control with a 30.0% caught-stealing rate (9-for-30) compared to Nick Fortes' 21.6% CS rate (11-for-51) to keep the Rays' speed in check. The market has reacted to short-term form, but the Yankees' baseline season pitching (3.39 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.9 K/9) and scoring (4.8 R/G) remain superior to the Rays' pitching (3.75 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.0 K/9) and scoring (4.6 R/G). Back the Yankees at a very reasonable price of -118 to take the series opener behind their ace.

My game script tonight revolves around Cam Schlittler acting as the ultimate stopper for the Yankees. Schlittler has been sensational this season, carrying an 8-5 record with a 2.08 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and 123 strikeouts over 104.0 IP. His metrics are completely elite, as evidenced by a 3.14 xERA and a .258 opponent wOBA (xwOBA .277). While the market has drifted toward the red-hot Rays—who are 8-2 in their last 10 games compared to the Yankees' 1-9 slump—it is overpaying for Griffin Jax’s highly fragile season numbers. Jax is 4-5 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 60.0 IP, but his 5.37 xERA and a .324 opponent wOBA (xwOBA .354) indicate extreme run-sequencing luck. Tonight, that luck runs out because the Yankees' lineup is optimized to exploit Jax's biggest weakness. Jax has struggled mightily against left-handed hitting, allowing a .276 AVG and a .801 OPS (7 HR) to lefties, compared to a .216 AVG and .665 OPS (4 HR) against righties. In comparison, Schlittler dominates both sides, allowing a .213 AVG and a .609 OPS (5 HR) to lefties, and a .195 AVG and .555 OPS (5 HR) to righties. New York is starting seven left-handed or switch hitters tonight, creating a relentless platoon advantage that will expose Jax early.

The strongest argument against backing the Yankees is their gassed bullpen, with key bridge relievers like Camilo Doval, Jake Bird, and Paul Blackburn likely unavailable due to back-to-back appearances on July 4-5. In contrast, the Rays have a pristine, fully rested late-inning duo in closer Bryan Baker (23 SV, 1.83 ERA, 0.82 WHIP) and setup man Kevin Kelly (18 HLD, 2.41 ERA), who have not pitched since July 4. However, Schlittler’s exceptional durability and ability to suppress hard-hit contact (8.6% barrel rate and 40.6% hard-hit rate over 266 BBE, compared to Jax's 10.7% barrel rate and 41.4% hard-hit rate over 169 BBE) allows him to pitch deep and bridge the gap directly to rested late-inning arms like David Bednar (17 SV, 3.00 ERA) and Fernando Cruz (2.39 ERA). Behind the plate, Yankees catcher Austin Wells provides superior run control with a 30.0% caught-stealing rate (9-for-30) compared to Nick Fortes' 21.6% CS rate (11-for-51) to keep the Rays' speed in check. The market has reacted to short-term form, but the Yankees' baseline season pitching (3.39 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.9 K/9) and scoring (4.8 R/G) remain superior to the Rays' pitching (3.75 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.0 K/9) and scoring (4.6 R/G). Back the Yankees at a very reasonable price of -118 to take the series opener behind their ace.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Astros· -116

Tonight under the overcast skies of Nationals Park, the Washington Nationals host the Houston Astros in a series opener that features a stark clash of starting pitching trajectories and critical bullpen availability. I am backing the Nationals on the moneyline at -116 because they possess the clear advantage on the mound in recent weeks and are perfectly positioned to exploit their opponent's weaknesses. Miles Mikolas (2-7, 5.44 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) enters this game in excellent localized form, posting a 3.54 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and an elite 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last 28.0 innings. Conversely, Astros starter Mike Burrows (4-8, 5.58 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) has plummeted, carrying a 6.23 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a fragile 17-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last 26.0 innings, failing to complete more than five innings in four of his last five starts. The Nationals' offense (0.249 AVG, 0.753 OPS, 5.3 R/G) matches up beautifully against Burrows, who has an extreme platoon split, yielding a massive .317 AVG and a .961 OPS to left-handed hitters compared to a .245 AVG and a .694 OPS to right-handers. Washington features four lefties in their top six spots, headlined by James Wood (.960 OPS vs. RHP) and Luis Garcia Jr. (.902 OPS vs. RHP), who are primed to jump on Burrows’ 95 mph fastball and 89.5 mph slider early. The Astros' lineup (0.241 AVG, 0.725 OPS, 4.5 R/G), while boasting the elite Yordan Alvarez (1.108 OPS vs. RHP), faces a Mikolas who has reverse-platoon splits but allows a much more manageable .806 OPS to right-handed hitters compared to a .773 OPS to left-handed hitters. Furthermore, Houston’s depth is tested with Braden Shewmake starting at shortstop tonight. The strongest argument against backing Washington is their porous defense, which leads the National League with 72 errors and a .979 fielding percentage, whereas Houston boasts a highly reliable unit with only 38 errors and a .988 fielding percentage. A pitch-to-contact pitcher like Mikolas relies on his defense, but the return of Jacob Young to center field stabilizes Washington's outfield play and mitigates this risk. Crucially, the late innings heavily favor the home team. The Astros' bullpen will likely be without their dominant high-leverage arms as Josh Hader (0.60 ERA) and Bryan King (2.08 ERA) are heavily fatigued after throwing over 30 pitches in consecutive appearances. Meanwhile, the Nationals can turn to a fully rested closer in Clayton Beeter (3.16 ERA) to seal a tight victory.

The Nationals' offense (0.249 AVG, 0.753 OPS, 5.3 R/G) matches up beautifully against Burrows, who has an extreme platoon split, yielding a massive .317 AVG and a .961 OPS to left-handed hitters compared to a .245 AVG and a .694 OPS to right-handers. Washington features four lefties in their top six spots, headlined by James Wood (.960 OPS vs. RHP) and Luis Garcia Jr. (.902 OPS vs. RHP), who are primed to jump on Burrows’ 95 mph fastball and 89.5 mph slider early. The Astros' lineup (0.241 AVG, 0.725 OPS, 4.5 R/G), while boasting the elite Yordan Alvarez (1.108 OPS vs. RHP), faces a Mikolas who has reverse-platoon splits but allows a much more manageable .806 OPS to right-handed hitters compared to a .773 OPS to left-handed hitters. Furthermore, Houston’s depth is tested with Braden Shewmake starting at shortstop tonight.

The strongest argument against backing Washington is their porous defense, which leads the National League with 72 errors and a .979 fielding percentage, whereas Houston boasts a highly reliable unit with only 38 errors and a .988 fielding percentage. A pitch-to-contact pitcher like Mikolas relies on his defense, but the return of Jacob Young to center field stabilizes Washington's outfield play and mitigates this risk. Crucially, the late innings heavily favor the home team. The Astros' bullpen will likely be without their dominant high-leverage arms as Josh Hader (0.60 ERA) and Bryan King (2.08 ERA) are heavily fatigued after throwing over 30 pitches in consecutive appearances. Meanwhile, the Nationals can turn to a fully rested closer in Clayton Beeter (3.16 ERA) to seal a tight victory.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Mets· -126

Under the threat of summer showers in Atlanta, the Braves and Mets wrap up a high-stakes divisional series at Truist Park. My read is that the market is giving us a discount on the home favorite here, letting us grab the Braves at -126 in a spot where they possess overwhelming structural advantages. The game script is simple: the Braves' lineup is perfectly designed to exploit New York starter Freddy Peralta's primary weakness, while a gassed Mets bullpen leaves their pitching staff with zero room for error. Peralta has been a disaster of late, posting an 8.49 ERA over his last five starts, including a brutal stretch where he was touched up for 15 earned runs in just 12.1 innings. The core issue is his severe platoon split. Left-handed hitters are pasting Peralta to the tune of an .803 OPS and have launched 12 of the 13 home runs he has surrendered this season. Atlanta manager Walt Weiss has countered by stacking his lineup with seven left-handed or switch hitters, including Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, and yesterday’s grand slam hero Drake Baldwin. Once Peralta is forced to navigate this heavy-hitting left-handed gauntlet, he will find no relief in his bullpen. The Mets' relief corps is absolutely exhausted after nearly blowing a seven-run lead in yesterday’s 10-9 victory. High-leverage arm Huascar Brazobán surrendered five runs, and closer Devin Williams is likely unavailable after a high-stress, 22-pitch escape act. The primary counterargument is that Braves starter Reynaldo López is overperforming, with a 3.31 ERA that masks a much higher 4.61 xERA, while Peralta is due for some positive regression (3.77 xERA). That is a fair warning over a 162-game average, but over a single game, situational reality overrides long-term regression. López has stabilized his command, coming off a strong five-inning, one-run start with six strikeouts. More importantly, behind López sits a rested Atlanta bullpen anchored by Raisel Iglesias (1.53 ERA, 17 SV), who hasn’t pitched since July 3. Combined with Atlanta’s top-10 defense (.988 fielding percentage) contrasting against the Mets' bottom-tier defense (.976 fielding percentage, 28th), the Braves have all the late-game security New York lacks. Back the Braves to take care of business at home.

Peralta has been a disaster of late, posting an 8.49 ERA over his last five starts, including a brutal stretch where he was touched up for 15 earned runs in just 12.1 innings. The core issue is his severe platoon split. Left-handed hitters are pasting Peralta to the tune of an .803 OPS and have launched 12 of the 13 home runs he has surrendered this season. Atlanta manager Walt Weiss has countered by stacking his lineup with seven left-handed or switch hitters, including Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, and yesterday’s grand slam hero Drake Baldwin. Once Peralta is forced to navigate this heavy-hitting left-handed gauntlet, he will find no relief in his bullpen. The Mets' relief corps is absolutely exhausted after nearly blowing a seven-run lead in yesterday’s 10-9 victory. High-leverage arm Huascar Brazobán surrendered five runs, and closer Devin Williams is likely unavailable after a high-stress, 22-pitch escape act.

The primary counterargument is that Braves starter Reynaldo López is overperforming, with a 3.31 ERA that masks a much higher 4.61 xERA, while Peralta is due for some positive regression (3.77 xERA). That is a fair warning over a 162-game average, but over a single game, situational reality overrides long-term regression. López has stabilized his command, coming off a strong five-inning, one-run start with six strikeouts. More importantly, behind López sits a rested Atlanta bullpen anchored by Raisel Iglesias (1.53 ERA, 17 SV), who hasn’t pitched since July 3. Combined with Atlanta’s top-10 defense (.988 fielding percentage) contrasting against the Mets' bottom-tier defense (.976 fielding percentage, 28th), the Braves have all the late-game security New York lacks. Back the Braves to take care of business at home.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cardinals· -118

Divisional rivals collide under the warm evening sky at Busch Stadium as the National League Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers visit the St. Louis Cardinals in a high-stakes series opener. While the moneyline is priced as a near-toss-up with Milwaukee sitting at -118, the structural advantages in this matchup lean heavily toward the road team. The story of tonight's game begins and ends with the physical limitations and tactical disadvantages facing Cardinals starter Dustin May. May is entering this game on short rest after battling an ankle injury and will operate under a strict 65-pitch limit. Asking any starter to navigate a dangerous lineup under these conditions is tough, but it is especially daunting for May, who is set up to fail against Milwaukee's heavy platoon leverage. The Brewers are countering May by stacking six left-handed hitters in their confirmed lineup. This is a catastrophic matchup for May, who has been hammered by lefties this season to the tune of a .300 batting average and a massive .817 OPS. Elite left-handed bats like Brice Turang, who carries a .926 OPS against righties, will have multiple opportunities to exploit this platoon split before May is forced to exit early. Once May reaches his 65-pitch ceiling, a St. Louis bullpen that ranks 25th in xFIP over the last two weeks will be forced to chew up at least five innings. With both teams looking ahead to a doubleheader tomorrow, asking a struggling St. Louis relief core to carry such a heavy workload is a massive liability. On the other side, Shane Drohan offers the exact type of stable floor that wins games on the road. Drohan enters with a 3.12 ERA and 3.33 xERA, having surrendered two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The Cardinals do possess right-handed power threats like Nelson Velazquez (1.010 OPS versus lefties) and Jordan Walker (.965 OPS versus lefties) who are capable of punishing left-handed pitching, but Drohan’s ability to limit hard contact should help him navigate those threats. Backed by an elite infield defense and the division's best road record at 26-15, Milwaukee is positioned to overwhelm a compromised Cardinals pitching staff. At a highly reasonable price of -118 on the moneyline, the Brewers are the clear and logical side to back tonight.

The Brewers are countering May by stacking six left-handed hitters in their confirmed lineup. This is a catastrophic matchup for May, who has been hammered by lefties this season to the tune of a .300 batting average and a massive .817 OPS. Elite left-handed bats like Brice Turang, who carries a .926 OPS against righties, will have multiple opportunities to exploit this platoon split before May is forced to exit early. Once May reaches his 65-pitch ceiling, a St. Louis bullpen that ranks 25th in xFIP over the last two weeks will be forced to chew up at least five innings. With both teams looking ahead to a doubleheader tomorrow, asking a struggling St. Louis relief core to carry such a heavy workload is a massive liability.

On the other side, Shane Drohan offers the exact type of stable floor that wins games on the road. Drohan enters with a 3.12 ERA and 3.33 xERA, having surrendered two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The Cardinals do possess right-handed power threats like Nelson Velazquez (1.010 OPS versus lefties) and Jordan Walker (.965 OPS versus lefties) who are capable of punishing left-handed pitching, but Drohan’s ability to limit hard contact should help him navigate those threats. Backed by an elite infield defense and the division's best road record at 26-15, Milwaukee is positioned to overwhelm a compromised Cardinals pitching staff. At a highly reasonable price of -118 on the moneyline, the Brewers are the clear and logical side to back tonight.

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GARY'S PICK

WCBelgium @ USA· +240

Lumen Field plays host to a high-stakes heavyweight clash tonight as the United States and Belgium battle for a coveted spot in the World Cup quarterfinals. With a spot in the final eight on the line, this rematch of the classic 2014 Round of 16 promises high drama and absolute tactical intensity. In single-elimination tournament football, caution typically trumps ambition, and both of these squads enter tonight's match with identical, highly disciplined defensive records, having conceded exactly 1.0 goal per game (4 goals in 4 matches). With USA center-back Chris Richards confirmed to start and world-class goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois anchoring the Belgian goal, both backlines are at full strength. This represents a massive upgrade over their wide-open friendly back in March, and both managers will prioritize defensive structure over risk-taking, setting the stage for a tight, cagey battle. Belgium's possession-dominant style generates a massive volume of 21.2 shots per game and 1.89 expected goals (xG), but they have struggled with extreme finishing volatility, failing to score against Iran and managing only a single goal against Egypt. At +240, the Draw offers exceptional value. Knockout matches are notoriously tight, and with both teams possessing organized defenses and showing tactical caution in high-stakes environments, a low-scoring draw after regulation is the most mathematically logical outcome. Backing the Draw allows us to capitalize on a mispriced line that overreacts to the USA’s hot clinical run and Belgium’s high shot volume, when the reality on the pitch points to a balanced, gridlocked match.

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GARY'S PICK

WCBelgium @ USA· +120

Lumen Field plays host to a high-stakes heavyweight clash tonight as the United States and Belgium battle for a coveted spot in the World Cup quarterfinals. With a spot in the final eight on the line, this rematch of the classic 2014 Round of 16 promises high drama and absolute tactical intensity. Both teams enter tonight’s match having conceded exactly 1.0 goal per game in the tournament, and both backlines are fortified by key personnel who did not feature in Belgium's 5-2 friendly win back in March. Chris Richards is confirmed to start at center-back for the USA, while Thibaut Courtois is confirmed in net for Belgium, transforming this into a much more secure and compact defensive matchup. While the USA has scored at least two goals in every tournament match, their average of 2.5 goals per game is heavily built on unsustainable clinical finishing, outperforming their 1.39 expected goals (xG) per match by +1.11. Against a world-class goalkeeper like Courtois, this high-flying efficiency is highly likely to regress toward their actual underlying xG. At +120, the Under 2.5 represents an outstanding value. The bookmakers are overcharging for the Over based on historical friendlies and group-stage blowouts against weaker opposition. In a single-elimination environment where a single defensive error can end a tournament run, both sides will prioritize defensive safety, making a low-scoring, cagey match the most probable game script.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Diamondbacks· -124

A high-stakes NL West battle unfolds tonight at Petco Park as two teams deadlocked at 44-45 clash in a critical series opener. My money is on the Padres to take care of business at home behind Walker Buehler, who has been a completely different pitcher in San Diego this season. Buehler is sporting a stellar 3.13 Home ERA compared to a 6.50 ERA on the road, showing that Petco Park remains his fortress. While his season 4.61 ERA looks slightly inflated due to a rough nine-earned-run outing in his last start, his previous four starts were outstanding—allowing exactly one earned run in each of those four games. His cutter-slider combination has kept hitters off-balance, and pitching at home should help him get right back on track. The real trouble for Arizona tonight lies in Brandon Pfaadt's performance on the mound and his severe platoon liability. In his four starts, Pfaadt has put up a 5.40 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, but his splits against left-handed batters are downright alarming: a .308 batting average and a .964 OPS with 7 home runs allowed in just 91 at-bats. San Diego’s lineup is uniquely equipped to exploit this weakness, featuring high-quality lefties like Jake Cronenworth, Gavin Sheets, Jackson Merrill, and Sung-Mun Song. On top of that, Manny Machado enters tonight's game with supreme confidence after breaking an 0-for-34 skid with a game-winning three-run shot yesterday. Machado loves facing Pfaadt, sporting a lifetime .353 average and a 1.068 OPS in 17 career at-bats against him. The primary argument against San Diego is their taxed bullpen, with high-leverage arms like Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada on the injured list and Mason Miller highly worked. However, Arizona's bullpen is in a similarly precarious state, with key relievers Paul Sewald, Jonathan Loaisiga, Juan Morillo, and Brandyn Garcia all having pitched on back-to-back days on July 4th and 5th. Since both bullpens are running on fumes, this game will be decided by the starters. At a reasonable price of -124, we are backing a proven home performer in Buehler against a road-vulnerable Arizona squad (17-25 away) and a recently recalled starter in Pfaadt who allows an elevated 11.8% barrel rate. Bank on the Padres' left-handed bats and Buehler's home splits to carry the night.

The real trouble for Arizona tonight lies in Brandon Pfaadt's performance on the mound and his severe platoon liability. In his four starts, Pfaadt has put up a 5.40 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, but his splits against left-handed batters are downright alarming: a .308 batting average and a .964 OPS with 7 home runs allowed in just 91 at-bats. San Diego’s lineup is uniquely equipped to exploit this weakness, featuring high-quality lefties like Jake Cronenworth, Gavin Sheets, Jackson Merrill, and Sung-Mun Song. On top of that, Manny Machado enters tonight's game with supreme confidence after breaking an 0-for-34 skid with a game-winning three-run shot yesterday. Machado loves facing Pfaadt, sporting a lifetime .353 average and a 1.068 OPS in 17 career at-bats against him.

The primary argument against San Diego is their taxed bullpen, with high-leverage arms like Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada on the injured list and Mason Miller highly worked. However, Arizona's bullpen is in a similarly precarious state, with key relievers Paul Sewald, Jonathan Loaisiga, Juan Morillo, and Brandyn Garcia all having pitched on back-to-back days on July 4th and 5th. Since both bullpens are running on fumes, this game will be decided by the starters. At a reasonable price of -124, we are backing a proven home performer in Buehler against a road-vulnerable Arizona squad (17-25 away) and a recently recalled starter in Pfaadt who allows an elevated 11.8% barrel rate. Bank on the Padres' left-handed bats and Buehler's home splits to carry the night.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Blue Jays· -106

The cool marine air rolls into Oracle Park tonight as the San Francisco Giants host the Toronto Blue Jays in a cross-conference series opener under the bay lights. When looking at this matchup, the story of the game sits squarely on the starting pitchers and the current state of both offenses. Kevin Gausman has struggled mightily with inconsistency lately, posting a 6.58 ERA over his last five starts, while carrying a 4.71 ERA in night games. Gausman faces a Giants lineup that is averaging 4.2 runs per game over their last 10 contests, led by a high-contact Luis Arraez hitting second and clean-up hitter Rafael Devers, who has historically dominated Gausman, batting .333 with a 1.008 OPS in 33 career at-bats. While Landen Roupp also has some recent bumps, including a 5.40 ERA in his last five starts and a 5.68 ERA in night games, his underlying metrics suggest he is a far better pitcher than his 4.55 actual ERA suggests. Roupp's elite 3.43 xERA indicates heavy positive regression is on the horizon. He has been brilliant at suppressing quality contact, boasting a tiny 3.8% barrel rate and a 29.3% hard-hit rate allowed. That elite contact suppression matches up beautifully against a sliding Toronto offense that is scoring only 2.8 runs per game over their last 10 games. This offense is further depleted by the fresh absence of George Springer, forcing rookie Sean Keys to bat fifth in a lineup that lacks punch. The strongest argument against backing San Francisco is their thin bullpen, which is currently missing key relievers and has Caleb Kilian (4.14 ERA) and Ryan Walker (6.66 ERA) heavily taxed, compared to Toronto's elite, rested backend of Louis Varland (0.96 ERA) and Tyler Rogers (1.77 ERA). However, for Toronto to exploit that bullpen advantage, they first have to get on base and build a lead—something their struggling offense is highly unlikely to do against Roupp's heavy sinker and curveball mix. Behind the plate, San Francisco catcher Eric Haase represents a massive defensive upgrade over Alejandro Kirk, throwing out 28.6% of prospective baserunners compared to Kirk’s league-worst 13.3% rate. At -106 at home, the Giants are the side to trust to dictate the early tempo and hold on for a tight win.

While Landen Roupp also has some recent bumps, including a 5.40 ERA in his last five starts and a 5.68 ERA in night games, his underlying metrics suggest he is a far better pitcher than his 4.55 actual ERA suggests. Roupp's elite 3.43 xERA indicates heavy positive regression is on the horizon. He has been brilliant at suppressing quality contact, boasting a tiny 3.8% barrel rate and a 29.3% hard-hit rate allowed. That elite contact suppression matches up beautifully against a sliding Toronto offense that is scoring only 2.8 runs per game over their last 10 games. This offense is further depleted by the fresh absence of George Springer, forcing rookie Sean Keys to bat fifth in a lineup that lacks punch.

The strongest argument against backing San Francisco is their thin bullpen, which is currently missing key relievers and has Caleb Kilian (4.14 ERA) and Ryan Walker (6.66 ERA) heavily taxed, compared to Toronto's elite, rested backend of Louis Varland (0.96 ERA) and Tyler Rogers (1.77 ERA). However, for Toronto to exploit that bullpen advantage, they first have to get on base and build a lead—something their struggling offense is highly unlikely to do against Roupp's heavy sinker and curveball mix. Behind the plate, San Francisco catcher Eric Haase represents a massive defensive upgrade over Alejandro Kirk, throwing out 28.6% of prospective baserunners compared to Kirk’s league-worst 13.3% rate. At -106 at home, the Giants are the side to trust to dictate the early tempo and hold on for a tight win.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rockies· -118

A clear summer evening at Dodger Stadium sets the stage for an NL West clash, with the wind blowing out to center field at nine miles per hour as the division-leading Dodgers host the division-rival Rockies. This matchup hinges on a starting pitching contrast that tilts the scales heavily toward the home team, supported by a vast gap in defensive capability and bullpen readiness. In my view, this game unfolds with the Dodgers' right-handed bats jumping all over Kyle Freeland's glaring vulnerabilities early. Freeland has struggled heavily in 15 starts this season, pitching to a 2-7 record, a 7.25 ERA, and a 1.60 WHIP. His primary issue is an inability to contain right-handed hitters, who have battered him for a .327 AVG and a .973 OPS (including 15 home runs in 263 at-bats), compared to a .284 AVG and a .718 OPS against lefties. The Dodgers' potent right-handed bats like Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez are primed to exploit this, while Andy Pages can take advantage of the 9 mph wind blowing out to center field. On the other side, Eric Lauer has been a stabilizing force for Los Angeles. Lauer carries a 4-5 record, 4.84 ERA, and 1.27 WHIP on the year, but since joining the Dodgers, he has been stellar with a 2.88 ERA in 34.1 innings, and the team is undefeated in his starts. The strongest argument for the Rockies lies in Lauer’s own platoon splits and a defensive mismatch behind the plate. Lauer has shown a sharp reverse-split vulnerability, allowing left-handed hitters a .283 AVG and a high .932 OPS, compared to a .234 AVG and .735 OPS against right-handed hitters. With lefties like TJ Rumfield and Jake McCarthy in Colorado’s lineup, and rookie catcher Dalton Rushing struggling defensively for the Dodgers (posting -4 DRS and -4 Framing Runs, while Colorado’s Hunter Goodman has stabilized at -1 Framing Runs and +2 Blocks Above Average), the Rockies have the tools to make Lauer work. However, any early success the Rockies find will be quickly neutralized by the bullpen and defense. The Dodgers have the league's best defense with 61 DRS (compared to Colorado's 29th-ranked -44 DRS) to insulate Lauer's extreme flyball tendency (0.57 GO/AO vs. Freeland’s 0.99). Furthermore, the Dodgers' bullpen features a rested Tanner Scott (12 SV, 2.02 ERA, 0.70 WHIP) alongside Will Klein (2.29 ERA) and Alex Vesia (2.48 ERA). Colorado's relief unit is heavily taxed, having used key arms Jordan Romano (8.10 ERA, 1.90 WHIP) and Victor Vodnik (6.08 ERA) yesterday, leaving them thin. With the Dodgers playing at home (29-15) and Colorado struggling on the road (15-29), the Dodgers' run line is the sharp play.

In my view, this game unfolds with the Dodgers' right-handed bats jumping all over Kyle Freeland's glaring vulnerabilities early. Freeland has struggled heavily in 15 starts this season, pitching to a 2-7 record, a 7.25 ERA, and a 1.60 WHIP. His primary issue is an inability to contain right-handed hitters, who have battered him for a .327 AVG and a .973 OPS (including 15 home runs in 263 at-bats), compared to a .284 AVG and a .718 OPS against lefties. The Dodgers' potent right-handed bats like Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez are primed to exploit this, while Andy Pages can take advantage of the 9 mph wind blowing out to center field. On the other side, Eric Lauer has been a stabilizing force for Los Angeles. Lauer carries a 4-5 record, 4.84 ERA, and 1.27 WHIP on the year, but since joining the Dodgers, he has been stellar with a 2.88 ERA in 34.1 innings, and the team is undefeated in his starts.

The strongest argument for the Rockies lies in Lauer’s own platoon splits and a defensive mismatch behind the plate. Lauer has shown a sharp reverse-split vulnerability, allowing left-handed hitters a .283 AVG and a high .932 OPS, compared to a .234 AVG and .735 OPS against right-handed hitters. With lefties like TJ Rumfield and Jake McCarthy in Colorado’s lineup, and rookie catcher Dalton Rushing struggling defensively for the Dodgers (posting -4 DRS and -4 Framing Runs, while Colorado’s Hunter Goodman has stabilized at -1 Framing Runs and +2 Blocks Above Average), the Rockies have the tools to make Lauer work. However, any early success the Rockies find will be quickly neutralized by the bullpen and defense. The Dodgers have the league's best defense with 61 DRS (compared to Colorado's 29th-ranked -44 DRS) to insulate Lauer's extreme flyball tendency (0.57 GO/AO vs. Freeland’s 0.99). Furthermore, the Dodgers' bullpen features a rested Tanner Scott (12 SV, 2.02 ERA, 0.70 WHIP) alongside Will Klein (2.29 ERA) and Alex Vesia (2.48 ERA). Colorado's relief unit is heavily taxed, having used key arms Jordan Romano (8.10 ERA, 1.90 WHIP) and Victor Vodnik (6.08 ERA) yesterday, leaving them thin. With the Dodgers playing at home (29-15) and Colorado struggling on the road (15-29), the Dodgers' run line is the sharp play.

Permanent matchup analysis →

Player props

GARY'S PICK

KYLE SCHWARBERWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +104

Kyle Schwarber is one of the most disciplined and walk-prone hitters in baseball, sporting a .936 OPS on a .254 AVG with 30 HR. He has walked in 8 of his last 10 games (an 80% walk rate), including 4 of his last 5 games. Today, he faces LHP Noah Cameron, who has struggled recently with a 6.75 ERA and 8 walks over his last 24.0 IP (including 3 walks in his most recent start). Additionally, the Royals' bullpen is noted as decimated and has a poor 5.28 ERA this season. Pitchers are notoriously careful when facing Schwarber's immense power, especially since he is crushing lefties this season (.273 AVG, .967 OPS, 10 HR). This creates a highly favorable environment for Schwarber to work at least one walk, making the Over at +104 (break-even mark is >49%) a very strong play. Batting 2nd as the DH ensures Schwarber gets 4 to 5 plate appearances to work a deep count, and the wind blowing in will likely make pitchers even more cautious about throwing high-impact strikes.

GARY'S PICK

PEDRO NETOSHOTS OVER 0.5

WCPortugal· -159

Neto is one of Portugal's most active and direct wingers, averaging 1.25 shots per match in this international cycle (5 shots in 4 caps). Against a possession-dominant Spain side that controls 67.8% of the ball, Portugal's offensive strategy will rely heavily on rapid transition play. Neto's pace and ability to cut inside from the flank make him a primary outlet for counter-attacking sequences. With a line of just 0.5 shots, he needs to register only a single shot in the entire match to clear this line. Given his high volume and role on the wing, his true probability of recording at least one shot is significantly higher than the market's implied 61.39%.

GARY'S PICK

DIOGO COSTASAVES OVER 4

WCPortugal· +110

Spain's offense is extremely high-volume, averaging 18.2 shots and 6.0 shots on target per match while controlling 67.8% of possession. In a knockout-stage environment, Spain will routinely dominate territory and pepper Portugal's goal. As the starting goalkeeper, Diogo Costa will face continuous shot volume. Even if Spain manages to score, Costa's high exposure to on-target shots provides an excellent floor to reach 4 or more saves. At +110 odds, the market requires only a 47.62% break-even rate, which represents immense value given Spain's high shot-on-target metrics.

GARY'S PICK

YORDAN ALVAREZH+R+RBI OVER 2.5

MLBAstros· -110

Yordan Alvarez is having an exceptional season, batting .320 with 29 home runs and a 1.065 OPS. Against right-handed pitchers, Alvarez is even more formidable, posting a .329 AVG and a 1.108 OPS with 21 home runs. He faces Washington's Miles Mikolas, who has a 5.44 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and has surrendered 18 home runs in just 84.1 innings (1.92 HR/9). Alvarez's recent game-by-game production shows he has gone over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs in four of his last five games (yielding 8, 3, 3, and 11 HRR). Mikolas is a strikeout-averse pitcher (5.0 K/9) who pitches to contact, which aligns perfectly with Alvarez's elite contact quality and power. The overcast weather features 85°F temperatures with a 5 mph wind blowing right to left. Nationals Park is rated neutral with a 1.01 park factor. There is a 60% chance of rain that could lead to a start delay or affect the game environment, though warm temperatures should favor ball carry. Alvarez is confirmed in the number two spot in the Astros lineup, batting DH. This guarantees him high volume, with an expected four to five plate appearances in a game with a high 9.5 over/under total. The primary risk is that Alvarez's elite reputation could lead Mikolas or the Nationals' bullpen to pitch around him or issue intentional walks (Alvarez had two walks in his last game). Walks do not count towards hits, and if the rest of the Astros lineup fails to drive him in, he could be stranded, capping his HRR. Additionally, any rain-related game truncation could limit his total plate appearances.

GARY'S PICK

JAMES WOODH+R+RBI OVER 2.5

MLBNationals· +117

The primary driver for this pick is the extreme platoon vulnerability of Houston starting pitcher Mike Burrows. Burrows has struggled significantly this season with a 5.58 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP, but his performance against left-handed batters is particularly poor, allowing a .317 AVG and a .961 OPS, including 13 home runs in 202 at-bats. James Wood, batting leadoff as Washington's designated hitter, possesses a highly productive .960 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. Wood's recent form is excellent, having cleared 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs in four of his last five games (accumulating 5, 7, 3, and 3 HRR in those contests). Given Wood's high-volume leadoff role and the highly favorable platoon matchup, the over on a 2.5 HRR line at +117 represents substantial value against its 46% break-even probability. The overcast weather features 85°F temperatures with a 5 mph wind blowing right to left. Nationals Park is rated neutral with a 1.01 park factor. There is a noted 60% chance of rain that could lead to a start delay or affect the game environment, though warm temperatures should favor ball carry. Wood is confirmed in the leadoff spot as the DH, guaranteeing he will receive the maximum possible plate appearances. This establishes a strong floor of four to five opportunities in a game with a high 9.5 over/under total. The main risk is that Wood's high strikeout profile (he has several multi-K games in his recent logs) could limit his contact, leading to a hitless performance. Additionally, if the 60% rain threat materializes into an early game postponement or truncation, it would limit his total plate appearances.

GARY'S PICK

MATT OLSONH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· -125

1. **THE PICK:** Matt Olson OVER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-125) 2. **MATCHUP:** Facing RHP Freddy Peralta (Left-on-Right matchup). 3. **THE KEY FACTOR:** This matchup strongly favors Matt Olson's platoon advantage. On the season, Olson has hit right-handed pitching exceptionally well, posting an .887 OPS with 13 home runs. Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta has severe platoon issues, giving up a .266 AVG, .803 OPS, and 12 home runs to left-handed batters in 248 at-bats. Peralta is also in the midst of a massive slump, having allowed 18 earned runs in his last 12.1 innings of work. Olson is in prime position to capitalize on these struggles. 4. **PARK/WEATHER CHECK:** Truist Park. Weather: Partly Cloudy, 84°F, Wind: 5 mph (In From RF) or 1.1 mph at first pitch, with a 49% chance of precipitation and a possible delay/rainout warning. 5. **VOLUME FLOOR:** Olson is confirmed to bat 3rd in the Braves lineup, right behind on-base threats Michael Harris II (.302 AVG) and Ozzie Albies (.271 AVG), maximizing his RBI opportunities. Batting third virtually guarantees 4 to 5 plate appearances in a standard home game with a high game total of 9.0 runs. 6. **THE RISK:** Peralta remains a high-strikeout pitcher (8.7 K/9), and if he commands his slider/sweeper, he can induce swing-and-miss. If Olson walks instead of getting hits, or if the game is shortened/delayed by the 49% precipitation risk, Olson's plate appearances could be cut short.

GARY'S PICK

CAM SCHLITTLERK'S OVER 5.5

MLBNew York Yankees· -145

Schlittler features elite strikeout stuff, racking up 123 strikeouts over 104.0 innings pitched this season, which is a 10.6 K/9 rate. He has surpassed this 5.5 strikeout line in three of his last five starts, registering strikeout counts of 9, 13, and 7. The Yankees bullpen is in a heavily taxed situation, with key high-leverage reliever Camilo Doval having pitched on consecutive days, which will compel manager Aaron Boone to give Schlittler a longer leash tonight. Given his high strikeout rate and the added volume of innings he is expected to throw, he has an excellent path to clearing 5.5 Ks. The primary risk is that if his recent struggles against Detroit (6 ER in 4.0 IP) persist, he could be chased early, limiting his opportunities.

GARY'S PICK

JORDAN WALKERH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· -135

1. THE PICK: Jordan Walker OVER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-135) 2. MATCHUP: vs. Shane Drohan (LHP) - Right-handed batter vs. Left-handed pitcher matchup. 3. THE KEY FACTOR: Jordan Walker absolutely crushes left-handed pitching, carrying an elite .309 batting average and .965 OPS with 6 home runs against lefties this season. He faces Shane Drohan, who is highly vulnerable to right-handed power. All 5 of the home runs Drohan has surrendered this season have been hit by right-handed batters (in 145 at-bats). Furthermore, Walker is in exceptional form, batting .333 (11-for-33) with 2 home runs and 9 RBIs over his last 10 games, and has comfortably cleared this 1.5 HRR line in each of his last 5 games. Walker averages 2.55 HRR per game this season, giving us an immense cushion against a 1.5 line. 4. PARK/WEATHER CHECK: Busch Stadium is slightly pitcher-friendly with a park factor of 0.96. The weather is warm at 86 degrees, which aids ball flight, though an 8 mph wind blowing in from left field is a minor consideration that may slightly suppress pull-side power. 5. VOLUME FLOOR: Walker is confirmed in the starting lineup, batting 3rd. This premium slot guarantees a high volume of plate appearances (typically 4 to 5) and positions him directly behind on-base threats JJ Wetherholt (.269 AVG) and Ivan Herrera (.256 AVG) for ample RBI opportunities. 6. THE RISK: The primary risk is if Drohan is exceptionally sharp with his cutter (90.4 mph) and slider (85.9 mph), keeping Walker off-balance. Additionally, if the Cardinals' top-of-the-order hitters fail to get on base, Walker's RBI opportunities will be limited, and the 8 mph wind blowing in could keep a deep fly ball in play.

GARY'S PICK

BRICE TURANGH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -126

1. THE PICK: Brice Turang OVER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-126) 2. MATCHUP: vs. Dustin May (RHP) - Left-handed batter vs. Right-handed pitcher matchup. 3. THE KEY FACTOR: Brice Turang has a massive platoon advantage tonight. Against right-handed pitching, Turang is batting .300 with an elite .926 OPS and 11 of his 12 home runs. He faces Dustin May, who gets crushed by left-handed batters to the tune of a .300 batting average, .817 OPS, and 5 home runs allowed in 190 at-bats. Turang is batting .311 over his last 10 games. Although he has gone hitless in his last two games (0-for-8), this represents a prime bounce-back spot against a right-handed pitcher whose splits line up perfectly for him. On the season, Turang averages 2.39 HRR per game, which makes the 1.5 line a highly appealing value. 4. PARK/WEATHER CHECK: Busch Stadium's pitcher-friendly 0.96 park factor and the 8 mph wind blowing in from left field are minor headwinds, but the warm 86-degree temperature will help hard-hit balls travel, neutralizing some of the park's natural suppression. 5. VOLUME FLOOR: Turang is batting 3rd for the Brewers today, securing maximum plate-appearance volume (4 to 5 PAs) and placing him in a high-RBI position behind Jackson Chourio (.297 AVG) and Christian Yelich (.243 AVG). 6. THE RISK: The risk is that May continues his excellent three-start run (3 ER allowed in 20.2 IP) and suppresses the Brewers' offense, or that Turang's current 0-for-8 slump persists tonight. Additionally, May's high-velocity sinker (96.5 mph) could force Turang into weak groundouts.

GARY'S PICK

MATTHEW FREESESAVES OVER 4

WCUSA· +140

Freese faces a Belgium offense that generates massive shot volume, averaging 21.17 shots and 6.83 shots on target per match over their last 6 fixtures. With Belgium's key attackers like De Bruyne, Lukebakio, and Lukaku active, Freese will face continuous pressure. Even if Belgium scores multiple goals, the high volume of shots on target suggests Freese's expected save count is well above 4. Under +140 odds, the break-even probability is only 41.67%, representing a massive statistical edge compared to Thibaut Courtois' saves line of 4 which is priced at +115 against a USA attack that only musters 4.0 shots on target per match.

GARY'S PICK

SERGIÑO DESTSHOTS OVER 1.5

WCUSA· +145

Dest has been highly active in his limited caps during this cycle, registering 3 shots in 2 matches. Playing as an aggressive midfielder/winger, he frequently cuts inside to shoot. Against a Belgium defense that allows 1.18 xGA per match and showed vulnerability in their last game against Senegal, the USA will find counter-attacking opportunities. Dest's high attacking drive and average of 1.5 shots per match make the +145 line (which only requires a 40.82% win probability) a substantial value in a game where transition moments will be available.

THE LONG SHOT

JUNIOR CAMINEROHR OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +400

**THE PICK:** Junior Caminero OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400) **MATCHUP:** Facing Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler (RHP) and the Yankees bullpen. **THE KEY FACTOR:** Junior Caminero is having a phenomenal season with 26 HR in 330 AB, and he has been exceptionally dominant at home and against right-handed pitching. At Tropicana Field, Caminero has hit 15 HR in 154 AB (a rate of 1 HR per 10.27 AB). Against right-handed pitchers, he has hit 21 HR in 242 AB (1 HR per 11.52 AB). He enters this game on an absolute tear, having hit 10 HR in his last 10 games. Meanwhile, Yankees starter Cam Schlittler, despite an excellent season ERA, was hit hard in his last start (allowing 6 ER on 7 H in 4.0 IP) and has allowed 10 HR over 104.0 IP this season with an 8.6% barrel rate and 40.6% hard-hit rate. Furthermore, the Yankees' bullpen is heavily fatigued after a stretch of 9 losses in 10 games, creating prime late-game opportunities for Caminero. At +400 odds, the break-even probability is only 20%, which is well below Caminero's season-long home HR rate. **PARK/WEATHER CHECK:** Played under the roof at Tropicana Field (dome, 72°F, 0 mph wind), neutralizing external weather elements. **VOLUME FLOOR:** Caminero is confirmed batting 3rd in the Rays lineup, ensuring a high-volume floor of 4 to 5 plate appearances in a competitive divisional matchup. **THE RISK:** Cam Schlittler regains his All-Star form, utilizing his high-velocity fastball (97.7 mph) to neutralize right-handed batters (holding them to a .195 AVG and .555 OPS this season), and successfully keeps Caminero off-balance, or Caminero is pitched around and walks in key plate appearances.

THE LONG SHOT

YORDAN ALVAREZHR OVER 0.5

MLBAstros· +295

Yordan Alvarez represents one of the premier power threats in baseball, carrying 29 home runs and a 1.065 OPS on the season. Alvarez is especially dominant against right-handed pitching, slashing .329 with a 1.108 OPS and 21 of his 29 home runs in 237 at-bats. Tonight, he faces righty Miles Mikolas, who has surrendered 18 home runs in 84.1 innings pitched this season, including 8 home runs to left-handed batters in 190 at-bats. Mikolas relies heavily on a 4-seam fastball (25.6%, xwOBA .374) and a sinker (25.0%, xwOBA .379), which match up poorly against Alvarez's elite bat speed and barrel contact. In addition, Alvarez has been in tremendous home run form, launching 4 home runs over his last five games (including a multi-HR game). With a massive 12.5 game total, Alvarez is highly likely to secure multiple high-quality plate appearances in a scoring-rich environment. At +295, the implied probability is just 25.3%, which Alvarez's true matchup projection easily exceeds.

THE LONG SHOT

MATT OLSONHR OVER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +265

Matt Olson is primed to exploit Freddy Peralta's severe platoon splits. Peralta has allowed 12 of his 13 home runs this season to left-handed batters. Olson is the Braves' premier left-handed slugger, with 22 home runs in 343 at-bats this season (a home run every 15.6 at-bats) and is in excellent form, hitting .300 over his last 10 games with two home runs. Given the matchup, Olson's power profile heavily outclasses Peralta's fly-ball tendencies, making the +265 line (27.4% break-even) an exceptionally strong value.

THE LONG SHOT

JAMES WOODHR OVER 0.5

MLBNationals· +320

James Wood is having a sensational rookie campaign with 23 home runs and a .926 OPS in 91 games. He possesses a strong platoon advantage against right-handed pitching, batting .268 with a .960 OPS and hitting 16 of his 23 home runs in 224 at-bats. Tonight, Wood faces right-handed starter Mike Burrows, who has a severe platoon vulnerability against left-handed hitters. Burrows has yielded a .317 batting average, a .961 OPS, and 13 home runs to lefties in just 202 at-bats. Burrows struggles with fly-ball tendencies (0.76 GO/AO) and relies heavily on a 4-seam fastball (29.6%, xwOBA .391) and a curveball (14.3%, xwOBA .387), both of which are highly vulnerable to Wood's power profile. Wood has hit 2 home runs in his last five games and should receive maximum volume batting leadoff as the designated hitter. In a game with a high 12.5 total, Wood is projected to get 4 to 5 plate appearances. At +320, the break-even probability is 23.8%, making the over a highly valuable play against a pitcher who struggles immensely to contain left-handed power.

THE LONG SHOT

DRAKE BALDWINHR OVER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +390

Drake Baldwin has a major advantage tonight batting cleanup against Freddy Peralta. Peralta has a massive platoon split, allowing 12 of his 13 home runs this season to left-handed hitters in 248 at-bats. Baldwin has shown elite power this season with 15 home runs in 255 at-bats (a home run every 17 at-bats) and recently homered within his last five games. At +390, the implied break-even probability is only 20.4%, which is heavily undervalued given Peralta's extreme vulnerability to left-handed power and fly-ball profile (GO/AO of 0.86).

GARY'S PICK

GAVIN SHEETSH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· -105

1. **THE PICK:** Gavin Sheets OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105) 2. **MATCHUP:** vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP) 3. **THE KEY FACTOR:** Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt has struggled immensely against left-handed batters this season, allowing a .308 AVG and .964 OPS with 7 HR in 91 at-bats. Gavin Sheets has pronounced platoon splits, hitting all 14 of his home runs and posting an .833 OPS against righties (compared to a .538 OPS against lefties). Additionally, Sheets is in excellent recent form, batting .323 (10-for-31) over his last 10 games and hitting safely in each of his last five starts. 4. **PARK/WEATHER CHECK:** Petco Park with clear skies, 81 degrees, and calm winds. 5. **VOLUME FLOOR:** Sheets is batting cleanup (4th) tonight, ensuring 4-5 plate appearances with strong RBI and run-scoring opportunities in a game with an 8.5 total. 6. **THE RISK:** Petco Park is a pitcher-friendly venue where Sheets has a lower home average (.185 AVG), and if Pfaadt limits him to a single without any runs or RBIs, the prop will stay under.

GARY'S PICK

MOOKIE BETTSH+R+RBI OVER 2.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· +118

Mookie Betts enters this matchup in superb form, batting .341 with three home runs and nine RBIs over his last 10 games. Tonight, he faces Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland, who is having a highly difficult season with a 7.25 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Freeland is incredibly vulnerable against right-handed hitters, allowing a .327 batting average and 15 home runs in 263 at-bats. Batting fourth in a highly potent Dodgers lineup, Betts will have numerous opportunities to drive in runs with high-OBP teammates like Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages, and Freddie Freeman hitting ahead of him. The combination of a massive platoon advantage, prime lineup real estate, and elite recent form makes the over on his hits+runs+RBIs highly attractive.

Research

135

BULLPENMIL @ STL
Milwaukee Brewers pen: 17.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Milwaukee Brewers's bullpen has thrown 17.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
TEAM RECORDTOR @ SF
Giants 0-8 in Landen Roupp's last 8 starts
Giants are 0-8 in Landen Roupp's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 8 in a row. He starts tonight.
BULLPENARI @ SD
Arizona Diamondbacks pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Arizona Diamondbacks's bullpen has thrown 14.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 6 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
TEAM RECORDCOL @ LAD
Dodgers 6-0 in Eric Lauer's last 6 starts
Dodgers are 6-0 in Eric Lauer's last 6 starts this season — winners of his last 6 in a row. He starts tonight.
PLATOON EDGETOR @ SF
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 2nd against Landen Roupp (RHP)
Over 148 AB vs. Right, Nathan Lukes owns a .820 OPS versus .297 in 31 AB the other way. He sees RHP Landen Roupp tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
BULLPENHOU @ WSH
Washington Nationals pen: 18.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Washington Nationals's bullpen has thrown 18.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 2 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
HEAT CHECKHOU @ WSH
Luis Garcia Jr.: 1.484 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 45 PA: a 1.484 OPS versus .874 for the season, 0.61 above his norm. He has 19 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKNYY @ TB
Junior Caminero: 1.383 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.383 OPS spans the last 15 days (55 PA) against a .939 season baseline, a 0.444 swing. He has 26 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
STARTER FORMNYM @ ATL
Freddy Peralta: 10.95 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (12.3 IP) he has been tagged for 15 earned runs — a 10.95 ERA with a 2.19 WHIP (1.42 season) against a 4.81 season mark.
P 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
COOLING OFFNYM @ ATL
Drake Baldwin: .363 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Freddy Peralta
Drake Baldwin's .363 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .787 season mark, down 0.424. Tonight he draws RHP Freddy Peralta — his weaker side: a .763 OPS vs RHP across 150 AB.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
COOLING OFFNYY @ TB
Cody Bellinger: .371 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Griffin Jax
Cody Bellinger's .371 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .774 season mark, down 0.403. Tonight he draws RHP Griffin Jax — his weaker side: a .762 OPS vs RHP across 208 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
SITUATIONALHOU @ WSH
WSH's bullpen has covered 18.7 innings over the last 3 games
That is 18.7 relief innings in 3 games, led by Zack Littell (6) and Justin Lawrence (2.3). HOU's pen has thrown 11.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 11-12
TEAM RECORDPHI @ KC
Phillies 6-2 in Cristopher Sanchez's last 8 starts
Phillies are 6-2 in Cristopher Sanchez's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 3 in a row. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDPHI @ KC
Royals 2-6 in Noah Cameron's last 8 starts
Royals are 2-6 in Noah Cameron's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDHOU @ WSH
Nationals 2-6 in Miles Mikolas's last 8 starts
Nationals are 2-6 in Miles Mikolas's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 3 in a row. He starts tonight.
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ STL
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Brice Turang's vs. Right line (.926 OPS, 233 AB) sits well above his .558 mark the other way (95 AB). Tonight's starter Dustin May throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
SITUATIONALMIL @ STL
MIL's pen has logged 17.7 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 17.7 innings out of the pen — Grant Anderson (3.7) and Chad Patrick (3.3) carried the load. STL's pen has thrown 10.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 4-3
STARTER FORMTOR @ SF
Kevin Gausman: 9.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (14 IP) he has been tagged for 14 earned runs — a 9.00 ERA with a 2.14 WHIP (1.19 season) against a 4.19 season mark.
P 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
STREAKBEL @ USA
Belgium are unbeaten in 5 internationals
Recent tournament form sits 1-4-0 over the last 5 (D-W-D-D-D), with a 5-match unbeaten run live.
P team won 4-1
STREAKNYY @ TB
TB have won 5 straight
Tampa Bay Rays have won 5 straight, outscoring teams by 24 runs over the run; 5-2 across their last 7.
P team lost 5-1
HR THREATYankees @ Rays
Junior Caminero
**THE PICK:** Junior Caminero OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400) **MATCHUP:** Facing Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler (RHP) and the Yankees bullpen. **THE KEY FACTOR:** Junior Caminero is having a phenomenal season with 26 HR in 330 AB, and he has been exceptionally dominant at home and against right-handed pitching.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKARI @ SD
Manny Machado: 1.076 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.076 OPS spans the last 15 days (47 PA) against a .692 season baseline, a 0.384 swing. He has 18 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
STREAKESP @ POR
Spain are unbeaten in 5 internationals
Across their last 5 World Cup matches they are 3-2-0 (W-W-W-D-D), carrying a 5-match unbeaten run into this fixture.
P team won 1-0
BULLPENNYY @ TB
New York Yankees pen: 14.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
New York Yankees's bullpen has thrown 14.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
BATTER VS ARMCOL @ LAD
Shohei Ohtani vs Kyle Freeland: .636
In 11 career at-bats against Kyle Freeland, Shohei Ohtani is 7-for-11 for a 1.939 OPS (1 walk). The two square off again tonight. He enters steady (.712 OPS, L15).
P 3-for-4, 6 TB, 1 BB
STARTER FORMPHI @ KC
Noah Cameron: 9.22 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 13.7 innings, 14 earned runs, 25 hits. That 9.22 ERA runs 4.27 over his 4.95 season number.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
COOLING OFFARI @ SD
Corbin Carroll: .551 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Walker Buehler
Corbin Carroll's .551 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .862 season mark, down 0.311. Tonight he draws RHP Walker Buehler — his weaker side: a .768 OPS vs RHP across 215 AB.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
PLATOON EDGETOR @ SF
Rafael Devers (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Rafael Devers's vs. Right line (.908 OPS, 225 AB) sits well above his .569 mark the other way (118 AB). Tonight's starter Kevin Gausman throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
HR THREATAstros @ Nationals
Yordan Alvarez
MATCHUP: Left-handed batter vs. right-handed pitcher Miles Mikolas.
P 0 HR — 1-for-5, 1 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADMIL @ STL
Brewers are 4-1 vs Cardinals this season
Brewers lead the season series 4-1 over Cardinals. MIL won the last meeting 2-1.
HEAD-TO-HEADCOL @ LAD
Dodgers are 6-3 vs Rockies this season
Dodgers lead the season series 6-3 over Rockies. LAD won the last meeting 4-1.
HEAT CHECKCOL @ LAD
Kyle Karros: 1.212 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (39 PA) he is at a 1.212 OPS, up 0.426 on his .786 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 2 BB
COOLING OFFNYY @ TB
Ben Rice: .579 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Griffin Jax
Ben Rice's .579 OPS over the last 15 days (51 PA) trails his .921 season mark, down 0.342. Tonight he draws RHP Griffin Jax — his stronger side: a 1.004 OPS vs RHP across 203 AB.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
HR THREATMets @ Braves
Matt Olson
Matt Olson is in an elite matchup tonight against Freddy Peralta. Peralta has been highly vulnerable to left-handed power, surrendering 12 of his 13 allowed home runs to lefties this season in 248 at-bats, compared to just 1 to righties in 129 at-bats.
P 2 HR — 2-for-5, 8 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFTOR @ SF
Casey Schmitt: .541 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Kevin Gausman
Casey Schmitt's .541 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .806 season mark, down 0.265. Tonight he draws RHP Kevin Gausman — his weaker side: a .790 OPS vs RHP across 230 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKTOR @ SF
Rafael Devers: 1.108 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 48 PA: a 1.108 OPS versus .791 for the season, 0.317 above his norm. He has 18 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
PLATOON EDGEHOU @ WSH
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Luis Garcia Jr.'s vs. Right line (.902 OPS, 246 AB) sits well above his .669 mark the other way (34 AB). Tonight's starter Mike Burrows throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
HR THREATAstros @ Nationals
Luis Garcia Jr.
MATCHUP: Left-handed batter vs. right-handed pitcher Mike Burrows.
P 0 HR — 1-for-5, 2 TB
PLATOON EDGENYY @ TB
Ben Rice (bats L) hits 2nd against Griffin Jax (RHP)
Over 203 AB vs. Right, Ben Rice owns a 1.004 OPS versus .761 in 108 AB the other way. He sees RHP Griffin Jax tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
PLATOON EDGEPHI @ KC
Salvador Perez (bats R) draws Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), batting 3rd
Salvador Perez carries a .761 OPS vs. Left (86 AB) against .500 the other way (236 AB), and faces LHP Cristopher Sanchez from the 3rd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 3-for-4, 7 TB
PLATOON EDGEARI @ SD
Gavin Sheets (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Gavin Sheets's vs. Right line (.833 OPS, 212 AB) sits well above his .538 mark the other way (47 AB). Tonight's starter Brandon Pfaadt throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
REGRESSIONNYM @ ATL
Reynaldo Lopez: 6.75 ERA vs 4.02 xERA
Reynaldo Lopez carries a 6.75 ERA against a 4.02 expected ERA (2.73 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .294 off him vs a .231 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
HEAT CHECKCOL @ LAD
Freddie Freeman: 1.156 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.156 OPS spans the last 15 days (52 PA) against a .884 season baseline, a 0.272 swing. He has 15 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
TOURNAMENTTO LIFT THE CUP
France head the title market at +170
France are the market's outright World Cup favourite at +170. Argentina (+425) and England (+500) are the next shortest.
BALLPARKARI @ SD
At Petco Park, Walker Buehler pitches to a 3.13 ERA
Walker Buehler at Petco Park: 3.13 ERA over 46 innings (9G) — 6.50 on a 36-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .229 off him here.
P 5 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
SITUATIONALARI @ SD
ARI's pen has logged 14.7 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 14.7 innings out of the pen — Jonathan Loaisiga (2.7) and Kevin Ginkel (2) carried the load. SD's pen has thrown 13 over the same span.
P flagged side won 8-0
STREAKPHI @ KC
KC games have gone UNDER 4 straight
Kansas City Royals games have stayed UNDER 4 straight — just 6.3 runs a night against an average line of 9.8. Tonight's number sits at 8.
P final total 16 vs 8
XG RECAPNOR @ BRA
Brazil out-created the field but didn't win
Brazil won the xG battle 2.8–0.8 yet lost to Norway (1–2). The underlying numbers favoured them — a side the result flattered to deceive.
SITUATIONALNYY @ TB
NYY's pen has logged 14.3 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 14.3 innings out of the pen — Jake Bird (2.3) and Brent Headrick (2) carried the load. TB's pen has thrown 9 over the same span.
P flagged side won 5-1
SITUATIONALPHI @ KC
KC's bullpen has covered 14 innings over the last 3 games
That is 14 relief innings in 3 games, led by Randy Dobnak (4) and John Schreiber (2). PHI's pen has thrown 9 over the same span.
P flagged side won 1-15
HEAT CHECKARI @ SD
Ketel Marte: 1.040 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.040 OPS spans the last 15 days (53 PA) against a .804 season baseline, a 0.236 swing. He has 17 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 3 TB
PLATOON EDGENYM @ ATL
Dominic Smith (bats L) gets a RHP from the 6th spot
Dominic Smith's vs. Right line (.754 OPS, 170 AB) sits well above his .459 mark the other way (26 AB). Tonight's starter Freddy Peralta throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB
HEAT CHECKCOL @ LAD
Jake McCarthy: 1.071 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 60 PA: a 1.071 OPS versus .865 for the season, 0.206 above his norm. He has 9 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PARK WEATHERTOR @ SF
Wind blowing out 13 mph at Oracle Park tonight
Tonight's reading at Oracle Park — Partly Cloudy, 60°, wind 13 mph, Out To CF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 7.5.
P final total 11 vs 7.5 (over lean)
PLATOON EDGEARI @ SD
Jake Cronenworth (bats L) hits 2nd against Brandon Pfaadt (RHP)
Over 94 AB vs. Right, Jake Cronenworth owns a .553 OPS versus .352 in 25 AB the other way. He sees RHP Brandon Pfaadt tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKNYM @ ATL
Mauricio Dubon: 1.008 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.008 OPS spans the last 15 days (49 PA) against a .757 season baseline, a 0.251 swing. He has 9 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-6, 2 TB
COOLING OFFTOR @ SF
Bryce Eldridge: .611 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Kevin Gausman
Bryce Eldridge's .611 OPS over the last 15 days (43 PA) trails his .841 season mark, down 0.23. Tonight he draws RHP Kevin Gausman — his weaker side: a .823 OPS vs RHP across 123 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
COOLING OFFTOR @ SF
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: .484 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Landen Roupp
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s .484 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .698 season mark, down 0.214. Tonight he draws RHP Landen Roupp — his weaker side: a .677 OPS vs RHP across 246 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKNYY @ TB
Cedric Mullins: .963 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 37 PA: a .963 OPS versus .646 for the season, 0.317 above his norm. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
XG REGRESSIONBEL @ USA
USA are finishing above their chances
USA are scoring 2.5/match on 1.4 xG — 1.1 goals/match above expected across 4 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
PLATOON EDGENYY @ TB
Chandler Simpson (bats L) draws Cam Schlittler (RHP), batting 6th
Chandler Simpson carries a .726 OPS vs. Right (209 AB) against .467 the other way (94 AB), and faces RHP Cam Schlittler from the 6th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
REGRESSIONPHI @ KC
Edmundo Sosa: .222 AVG vs .288 xBA
Edmundo Sosa's .222 average comes against a .288 expected (xBA) on 145 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .278 against a .341 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
TOURNAMENTESP @ POR
Portugal vs Spain: Round of 16 stakes
This is a round of 16 tie — win or go home. The market has it Portugal +295 / the draw +265 / Spain -110.
SITUATIONALBelgium @ USA
Belgium rotated 4
Confirmed XI: Belgium made 4 changes from their last match (Kevin De Bruyne, Jérémy Doku, Hans Vanaken… out). A heavily-rotated side — resting legs or managing the group — is playing below full strength: value on USA (side + over their total) the market is slow to adjust for.
BATTER VS ARMTOR @ SF
Rafael Devers vs Kevin Gausman: .333
Rafael Devers's career line off Kevin Gausman is 11-for-33, a .333 average over 33 at-bats with 1 home run — they meet again tonight. He enters hot (1.108 OPS, L15).
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
REGRESSIONNYY @ TB
Griffin Jax: 3.45 ERA vs 5.37 xERA
Griffin Jax carries a 3.45 ERA against a 5.37 expected ERA (1.92 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .252 off him vs a .278 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
TOURNAMENTBEL @ USA
USA vs Belgium: Round of 16 stakes
This is a round of 16 tie — win or go home. To lift the trophy: USA are 30-1 outsiders. The market has it USA +150 / the draw +240 / Belgium +180.
TOURNAMENTPATH TO THE FINAL
England are the market's pick to reach the final from the other half
Behind the outright favourite, England carry the shortest price to reach the final at +155 — the side the market most expects to come through the other half of the bracket.
BULLPENARI @ SD
San Diego Padres pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
San Diego Padres's bullpen has thrown 13 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
COOLING OFFMIL @ STL
Christian Yelich: .449 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Dustin May
Christian Yelich's .449 OPS over the last 15 days (43 PA) trails his .710 season mark, down 0.261. Tonight he draws RHP Dustin May — his stronger side: a .720 OPS vs RHP across 150 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGENYM @ ATL
Juan Soto (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Juan Soto's vs. Right line (1.023 OPS, 160 AB) sits well above his .867 mark the other way (94 AB). Tonight's starter Reynaldo Lopez throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-2, 4 TB, 3 BB
COOLING OFFHOU @ WSH
CJ Abrams: .593 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Mike Burrows
CJ Abrams's .593 OPS over the last 15 days (44 PA) trails his .846 season mark, down 0.253. Tonight he draws RHP Mike Burrows — his stronger side: a .883 OPS vs RHP across 228 AB.
P 3-for-5, 6 TB
SITUATIONALNYM @ ATL
12.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for ATL
Relievers have absorbed 12.7 innings over the last 3 games (JR Ritchie (3) and Dylan Dodd (2) the heaviest). NYM's pen has thrown 10 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 7-6
STARTER FORMCOL @ LAD
Kyle Freeland: 4.91 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 18.3 innings, 10 earned runs, 19 Ks. That 4.91 ERA sits 2.34 runs under his 7.25 season number.
P 5 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
COOLING OFFPHI @ KC
Lane Thomas: .461 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Cristopher Sanchez
Lane Thomas's .461 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .665 season mark, down 0.204. Tonight he draws LHP Cristopher Sanchez — his stronger side: a .685 OPS vs LHP across 95 AB.
P 2-for-3, 5 TB, 1 BB
BULLPENPHI @ KC
Kansas City Royals pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Kansas City Royals's bullpen has thrown 14 innings across their last 3 games, with 2 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
REGRESSIONARI @ SD
Jake Cronenworth: .168 AVG vs .218 xBA
Across 138 plate appearances, Jake Cronenworth carries a .168 average versus a .218 xBA. His wOBA sits at .245 against a .296 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKPHI @ KC
Trea Turner: .784 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (63 PA) he is at a .784 OPS, up 0.141 on his .643 season mark. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 3-for-4, 4 TB
REGRESSIONCOL @ LAD
Kyle Freeland: 7.25 ERA vs 5.59 xERA
Kyle Freeland carries a 7.25 ERA against a 5.59 expected ERA (1.66 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .318 off him vs a .294 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
BATTER VS ARMARI @ SD
Manny Machado vs Brandon Pfaadt: .353
In 17 career at-bats against Brandon Pfaadt, Manny Machado is 6-for-17 for a 1.068 OPS (2 walks). The two square off again tonight. He enters hot (1.076 OPS, L15).
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
BALLPARKCOL @ LAD
Eric Lauer owns a 3.00 ERA at Dodger Stadium — 5.22 everywhere else
Across 2 games (12 IP) at Dodger Stadium, Eric Lauer has a 3.00 ERA against 5.22 at his other parks (58.7 IP). Hitters bat .244 off him here.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
BALLPARKMIL @ STL
Dustin May owns a 3.94 ERA at Busch Stadium — 5.94 everywhere else
Across 8 games (48 IP) at Busch Stadium, Dustin May has a 3.94 ERA against 5.94 at his other parks (36.3 IP). Hitters bat .243 off him here.
P 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
REGRESSIONCOL @ LAD
TJ Rumfield: .301 AVG vs .255 xBA
TJ Rumfield's .301 average comes against a .255 expected (xBA) on 355 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .381 against a .326 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
FIRST INNINGNYY @ TB
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of NYY @ TB
Both sides keep scoring early — a 1st-inning run in 8 of 10 for TB and 8 of 10 for NYY games lately.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
STARTER FORMARI @ SD
Walker Buehler: 6.75 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 6.75 ERA over his last 14.7 innings with a 1.57 WHIP (1.38 season) — the 4.61 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 5 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
PLATOON EDGEHOU @ WSH
Daylen Lile (bats L) hits 6th against Mike Burrows (RHP)
Over 246 AB vs. Right, Daylen Lile owns a .779 OPS versus .594 in 102 AB the other way. He sees RHP Mike Burrows tonight hitting 6th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REPLACEMENTCOL @ LAD
Freddie Freeman (.744 vs LHP) replaces Enrique Hernandez at 1B tonight
Freddie Freeman draws LHP Kyle Freeland from the 3rd spot. He carries a .744 OPS vs LHP (103 AB) — a tough platoon spot relative to his .884 season line. On the injury report since yesterday (Oblique).
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
REPLACEMENTCOL @ LAD
Brenton Doyle (CF) is out for COL — Cole Carrigg starts in his place tonight
Oblique; On the injury report since yesterday; Cole Carrigg bats 5th tonight and carries a .939 OPS / .289 AVG this season.
P 3-for-5, 5 TB
PLATOON EDGEPHI @ KC
Edmundo Sosa (bats R) gets a LHP from the 6th spot
Edmundo Sosa's vs. Left line (.723 OPS, 70 AB) sits well above his .551 mark the other way (65 AB). Tonight's starter Noah Cameron throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTARI @ SD
Jordan Lawlar (LF) is out for ARI — Max Kepler starts in his place tonight
With Jordan Lawlar out (Hamstring; on the injury report for 6 days), Max Kepler draws the start at LF and bats 6th tonight and carries a .263 OPS / .105 AVG this season.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
REPLACEMENTTOR @ SF
Nathan Lukes (.820 vs RHP) replaces Jesus Sanchez at RF tonight
Nathan Lukes draws RHP Landen Roupp from the 2nd spot. He carries a .820 OPS vs RHP (148 AB) — a favorable platoon spot relative to his .728 season line. On the injury report for 9 days (Ankle).
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
REPLACEMENTMIL @ STL
Jose Fermin (.739 vs LHP) replaces Ramon Urias at 3B tonight
Jose Fermin draws LHP Shane Drohan from the 5th spot. He carries a .739 OPS vs LHP (72 AB) — a favorable platoon spot relative to his .707 season line. On the injury report for 24 days (Elbow).
P 2-for-3, 3 TB
REGRESSIONMIL @ STL
Jackson Chourio: .297 AVG vs .254 xBA
Across 250 plate appearances, Jackson Chourio carries a .297 average versus a .254 xBA. His wOBA sits at .379 against a .342 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
STARTER FORMHOU @ WSH
Mike Burrows: 3.75 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (12 IP) he has a 3.75 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP (1.51 season) and 7 strikeouts — his season mark is 5.58, and that is where most lines still price him.
P 4.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
REGRESSIONCOL @ LAD
Mookie Betts: .241 AVG vs .282 xBA
Across 240 plate appearances, Mookie Betts carries a .241 average versus a .282 xBA. His wOBA sits at .319 against a .340 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
TOURNAMENTSUREST TO ADVANCE
Côte d'Ivoire are the surest bet to advance
Côte d'Ivoire are -10000 to escape their group out of Group E — the shortest to-advance price on the board.
STARTER FORMCOL @ LAD
Eric Lauer: 3.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 18 innings, 6 earned runs, 8 Ks. That 3.00 ERA sits 1.84 runs under his 4.84 season number.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
XG RECAPGHA @ COL
Colombia created the better chances
Colombia led the xG 2.2–0.3 and took the result to match (1–0).
XG REGRESSIONESP @ POR
Portugal are finishing above their chances
Portugal are scoring 2.0/match on 1.5 xG — 0.5 goals/match above expected across 4 matches. Finishing that hot rarely holds; their scoring is a regression-down read going forward.
COOLING OFFCOL @ LAD
Willi Castro: .556 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Eric Lauer
Willi Castro's .556 OPS over the last 15 days (44 PA) trails his .723 season mark, down 0.167. Tonight he draws LHP Eric Lauer — his stronger side: a .763 OPS vs LHP across 91 AB.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKNYM @ ATL
Bo Bichette: .813 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .813 OPS spans the last 15 days (54 PA) against a .689 season baseline, a 0.124 swing. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
TOMORROWCOL @ LAD
Justin Wrobleski: 2.8 ERA vs 4.27 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs COL. A 2.8 ERA against a 4.27 expected ERA (1.47 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .217 vs .269 expected.
REGRESSIONMIL @ STL
Jose Fermin: .152 AVG vs .190 xBA
Jose Fermin's .152 average comes against a .190 expected (xBA) on 162 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .240 against a .263 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-3, 3 TB
REGRESSIONNYM @ ATL
Francisco Lindor: .225 AVG vs .264 xBA
Francisco Lindor is hitting .225 against a .264 expected average (xBA) over 145 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .307 against a .348 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSNYY @ TB
Paul Goldschmidt
Goldschmidt brings a strong .844 OPS and a .271 average into a favorable spot batting third in the order. He faces Griffin Jax, whose 5.37 xERA highlights a struggling pitcher who is likely to surrender production to an elite middle-of-the-order bat. Stream him tonight in 12-teamers.
COOLING OFFPHI @ KC
Kyle Schwarber: .768 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Noah Cameron
Kyle Schwarber's .768 OPS over the last 15 days (44 PA) trails his .936 season mark, down 0.168. Tonight he draws LHP Noah Cameron — his stronger side: a .967 OPS vs LHP across 121 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
RUNNING GAMEMIL @ STL
St. Louis Cardinals like to run — William Contreras (43% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
William Contreras owns a 43% caught-stealing rate (16 of 37) and St. Louis Cardinals run anyway — 0.6 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P St. Louis Cardinals stole 0 bases
COOLING OFFNYM @ ATL
Dominic Smith: .476 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Freddy Peralta
Dominic Smith's .476 OPS over the last 15 days (32 PA) trails his .715 season mark, down 0.239. Tonight he draws RHP Freddy Peralta — his stronger side: a .754 OPS vs RHP across 170 AB.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB
BULLPENNYM @ ATL
Atlanta Braves pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Atlanta Braves's bullpen has thrown 12.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 2 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
FANTASY PICKUPSCOL @ LAD
Andy Pages
Pickup vs Kyle Freeland (5.59 xERA) — .803 OPS, bats 2nd.
COOLING OFFPHI @ KC
Salvador Perez: .414 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Cristopher Sanchez
Salvador Perez's .414 OPS over the last 15 days (43 PA) trails his .570 season mark, down 0.156. Tonight he draws LHP Cristopher Sanchez — his stronger side: a .761 OPS vs LHP across 86 AB.
P 3-for-4, 7 TB
REGRESSIONTOR @ SF
Landen Roupp: 4.55 ERA vs 3.43 xERA
Landen Roupp carries a 4.55 ERA against a 3.43 expected ERA (1.12 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .245 off him vs a .229 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
TOMORROWCOL @ LAD
Michael Lorenzen: 6.91 ERA vs 5.59 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs LAD. A 6.91 ERA against a 5.59 expected ERA (1.32 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .335 vs .294 expected.
XG RECAPENG @ MEX
Mexico dominated the ball but didn't win
Mexico held 67% of possession yet lost to England (2–3) — control without the cutting edge.
TOMORROWHOU @ WSH
Tatsuya Imai: 6.14 ERA vs 4.9 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs WSH. A 6.14 ERA against a 4.9 expected ERA (1.25 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .228 vs .231 expected.
TOMORROWSEA @ MIA
Max Meyer: 2.53 ERA vs 3.74 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs SEA. A 2.53 ERA against a 3.74 expected ERA (1.21 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .205 vs .227 expected.
TOMORROWKC @ NYM
Seth Lugo: 4.2 ERA vs 5.34 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs NYM. A 4.2 ERA against a 5.34 expected ERA (1.14 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .278 vs .281 expected.
FANTASY PICKUPSNYY @ TB
Cody Bellinger
Bellinger slots into the cleanup spot with a .774 OPS, putting him in a great position to drive in runs. Facing Griffin Jax and his elevated 5.37 xERA provides a clear opportunity for Bellinger to capitalize on a pitcher who is currently scuffling. Deep-league dart only.
FANTASY PICKUPSCOL @ LAD
Teoscar Hernandez
Pickup vs Kyle Freeland (5.59 xERA) — .754 OPS, bats 6th.
FANTASY PICKUPSMIL @ STL
Shane Drohan
Drohan’s 3.12 ERA is fully supported by a 3.33 xERA, suggesting his current performance is sustainable. His 9.2 K/9 provides the necessary strikeout floor to take advantage of the matchup against St. Louis. Deep-league dart only.
TOMORROWOAK @ DET
J.T. Ginn: 3.04 ERA vs 4.07 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs DET. A 3.04 ERA against a 4.07 expected ERA (1.03 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .217 vs .241 expected.
TOMORROWHOU @ WSH
Andrew Alvarez: 3.05 ERA vs 4.07 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs HOU. A 3.05 ERA against a 4.07 expected ERA (1.02 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .261 vs .258 expected.
BATTER VS ARMARI @ SD
Jake Cronenworth vs Brandon Pfaadt: .409
In 22 career at-bats against Brandon Pfaadt, Jake Cronenworth is 9-for-22 for a .846 OPS. The two square off again tonight. He enters steady (.713 OPS, L15).
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
TOMORROWPHI @ CIN
Andrew Abbott: 3.88 ERA vs 4.86 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs PHI. A 3.88 ERA against a 4.86 expected ERA (0.98 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .253 vs .262 expected.
RUNNING GAMEMIL @ STL
Milwaukee Brewers like to run — Pedro Pages (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Milwaukee Brewers attempt 1.3 steals a game, but Pedro Pages has cut down 15 of 46 runners (33%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 0 bases
FANTASY PICKUPSHOU @ WSH
CJ Abrams
Abrams has been highly productive with an .846 OPS and will bat fourth in tonight's matchup. He should find plenty of success against Mike Burrows, who is vulnerable as evidenced by his 4.64 xERA. Deep-league dart only.
FANTASY PICKUPSCOL @ LAD
Kyle Karros
Karros hitting second in the order provides him with optimal plate appearance volume against a struggling Eric Lauer. Lauer’s 5.06 xERA suggests Karros can leverage his .786 OPS to create scoring opportunities throughout the night. Deep-league dart only.
FIRST INNINGCOL @ LAD
COL strike first: 1st-inning runs in 8 of their last 10
Colorado Rockies have put up a first-inning run in 8 of their last 10 games — they jump on starters early and the YRFI side of their games has been doing the work.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
BALLPARKPHI @ KC
Noah Cameron owns a 5.44 ERA at Kauffman Stadium — 4.38 everywhere else
Across 9 games (44.7 IP) at Kauffman Stadium, Noah Cameron has a 5.44 ERA against 4.38 at his other parks (39 IP). Hitters bat .298 off him here.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
TOMORROWLAA @ TEX
José Soriano: 3.42 ERA vs 4.33 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TEX. A 3.42 ERA against a 4.33 expected ERA (0.91 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .225 vs .239 expected.
REPLACEMENTNYM @ ATL
Brett Baty (.631 vs RHP) replaces Marcus Semien at 2B tonight
Brett Baty draws RHP Reynaldo Lopez from the 8th spot. He carries a .631 OPS vs RHP (204 AB) — a favorable platoon spot relative to his .605 season line. On the injury report for 7 days (Hip).
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
BALLPARKESP @ POR
Portugal vs Spain: indoors at AT&T Stadium
AT&T Stadium is a retractable-roof venue — retractable roof with air conditioning. The summer heat that exposes open stadiums is removed from this fixture.
FANTASY PICKUPSTOR @ SF
Kevin Gausman
Gausman is pitching better than his 4.19 ERA indicates, as his 3.77 xERA and 1.19 WHIP show he maintains strong control over the strike zone. An 8.9 K/9 rate makes him a high-upside option against San Francisco. Deep-league dart only.
FIRST INNINGNYM @ ATL
NYM have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
New York Mets have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
SITUATIONALSpain @ Portugal
Portugal v Spain: projected XI
Likely lineups from each side's last match — confirmed sheets post ~2h before kickoff.

Graded results

Games

W
Yankees ML -118
MLB · 5-1
L
Dodgers -1.5 -118
MLB · 7-8
W
Nationals ML -116
MLB · 11-12
W
Giants ML -106
MLB · 1-10
W
Brewers ML -118
MLB · 4-3
L
Braves ML -126
MLB · 7-6
L
Draw +240
WC · 4-1
L
Under 2.5 +120
WC · 4-1
L
Portugal +0.5 -115
WC · 1-0
W
Under 2.5 +100
WC · 1-0
L
Phillies -1.5 -128
MLB · 1-15
L
Padres ML -124
MLB · 8-0

Props

W
Brice Turang · over
Brewers @ Cardinals · Actual 3
W
Cam Schlittler · over
Yankees @ Rays · Actual 8
W
Diogo Costa · over
Spain @ Portugal · Actual 5
L
Drake Baldwin · over
Mets @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Gavin Sheets · over
Diamondbacks @ Padres · Actual 1
W
James Wood · over
Astros @ Nationals · Actual 8
W
James Wood · over
Astros @ Nationals · Actual 1
L
Jordan Walker · over
Brewers @ Cardinals · Actual 0
L
Junior Caminero · over
Yankees @ Rays · Actual 0
W
Kyle Schwarber · over
Phillies @ Royals · Actual 1
L
Matthew Freese · over
Belgium @ USA · Actual 3
W
Matt Olson · over
Mets @ Braves · Actual 7
W
Matt Olson · over
Mets @ Braves · Actual 2
L
Mookie Betts · over
Rockies @ Dodgers · Actual 0
W
Pedro Neto · over
Spain @ Portugal · Actual 1
L
Sergiño Dest · over
Belgium @ USA · Actual 0
L
Yordan Alvarez · over
Astros @ Nationals · Actual 1
L
Yordan Alvarez · over
Astros @ Nationals · Actual 0

Sports picks for Monday, July 6, 2026

Game picks

Phillies
-1.5

Portugal
+0.5

Under 2.5
Total Goals

Yankees
Moneyline

Nationals
Moneyline

Braves
Moneyline

Brewers
Moneyline

Draw

Under 2.5
Total Goals

Padres
Moneyline

Giants
Moneyline

Dodgers
-1.5

Player props

Kyle Schwarber
Walks over 0.5

Pedro Neto
Shots over 0.5

Diogo Costa
Saves over 4

Yordan Alvarez
H+R+RBI over 2.5

James Wood
H+R+RBI over 2.5

Matt Olson
H+R+RBI over 1.5

Cam Schlittler
K'S over 5.5

Jordan Walker
H+R+RBI over 1.5

Brice Turang
H+R+RBI over 1.5

Matthew Freese
Saves over 4

Sergiño Dest
Shots over 1.5

Junior Caminero
HR over 0.5

Yordan Alvarez
HR over 0.5

Matt Olson
HR over 0.5

James Wood
HR over 0.5

Drake Baldwin
HR over 0.5

Gavin Sheets
H+R+RBI over 1.5

Mookie Betts
H+R+RBI over 2.5

Research

Graded results

Games

Props