Braves at Pirates
O/U 9 · RL Pirates -1.5 · PNC Park
Braves ML+102
CONF 68%
WCashedFinal 3-0
The read
Under the warm evening skies at PNC Park, the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves look to halt a rare three-game skid as they continue their road series against the surging Pittsburgh Pirates. This matchup presents a beautiful situational spot to grab plus-money on a premier team that matches up perfectly with the opposing starter.
My read tonight centers on the extreme platoon vulnerability of Pittsburgh starter Jared Jones, which plays directly into the teeth of Atlanta's left-handed core. Jones has been absolutely hammered by left-handed hitters this season, surrendering a .299 batting average and a massive .932 OPS to lefties. He also struggles immensely when pitching in front of his home crowd, posting a dismal 6.92 Home ERA. The Braves' lineup features five left-handed or switch-hitters batting from the left side, including Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies, Drake Baldwin, Mike Yastrzemski, and Matt Olson, who carries a spectacular 0.971 Away OPS. In an 85°F environment with the wind blowing out to right field, these left-handed bats are primed to inflict heavy damage against Jones at his worst venue.
On the mound, Grant Holmes has provided stable command for the Braves, offering a 3.83 ERA over 16 starts. While his 4.62 xERA suggests regression is possible, Holmes has held left-handed hitters to a steady .228 batting average and .736 OPS, which matches up well against a Pirates lineup featuring prominent left-handed bats like Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn. Additionally, while the Pirates have been hot, Atlanta has a significant late-inning rest advantage. Yesterday's blowout allowed the Braves to preserve their premier high-leverage arms like closer Raisel Iglesias (2.37 ERA), while Pittsburgh's primary setup arm Carmen Mlodzinski is likely unavailable after a 24-pitch, two-inning appearance yesterday. With a rested high-leverage bullpen ready to shut the door and a glaring matchup advantage against Jones, backing the Braves as a plus-money underdog is the sharp bet tonight.
Injuries noted
Pirates: [NEW] Oneil Cruz (CF) — Hand (Left): Cruz (hand) has resumed swinging a bat, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports. (Jul 7 — 1d ago) [NEW] Wilber Dotel (RP) — Lat (Right): Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that Dotel (lat) will make another rehab appearance with a minor-league affiliate Tuesday, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (Jul 6 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Chris Devenski (RP) — Illness (Not Specified): Devenski (illness) was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday. (Jun 7 — 31d ago) [NEW] Spencer Horwitz (1B) — Hamstring (Left): Horwitz (hamstring) has begun a running program at the Pirates' spring training complex in Florida, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports. (Jul 7 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Evan Sisk (RP) — Elbow (Left): Sisk was placed on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (Jul 4 — 4d ago) [NEW] Endy Rodriguez (C) — Lower Body (Left): Rodriguez (hip) is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game versus Atlanta. (Jul 8 — 0d ago) [NEW] Konnor Griffin (SS) — Finger (Left): The Pirates placed Griffin on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a torn tendon in his left ring finger, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (Jul 7 — 1d ago) Braves: [KNOWN] Robert Suarez (RP) — Elbow (Right): An MRI on Suarez's right elbow came back negative Friday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports. (Jun 26 — 11d ago) [KNOWN] Spencer Strider (SP) — Elbow (Right): Atlanta transferred Strider (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday. (Jun 17 — 20d ago) [NEW] Ronald Acuna Jr. (RF) — Hamstring (Left): Manager Walt Weis said Tuesday that Acuna (hamstring) could begin a rehab assignment next week, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports. (Jul 7 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] Sean Murphy (C) — Finger (Left): Murphy had the cast on his left hand removed Tuesday and is now wearing a splint to protect his fractured middle finger, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reprots. (Jun 4 — 34d ago) [KNOWN] Joey Wentz (Relief Pitcher) — Knee (Right): Atlanta placed Wentz (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday. (May 8 — 61d ago) [KNOWN] Ha-Seong Kim (SS) — Finger (Right): Atlanta placed Kim on the 10-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to Wednesday, due to right middle finger inflammation. (Jul 4 — 4d ago) [NEW] Martin Perez (SP) — Forearm (Left): Atlanta placed Perez on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a left forearm contusion. (Jul 6 — 2d ago) [NEW] Eli White (RF) — Personal (Not Specified): Atlanta placed White on the paternity leave list Monday. (Jul 6 — 2d ago) [NEW] Tyler Kinley (RP) — Personal: Atlanta placed Kinley on the paternity list Tuesday. (Jul 7 — 1d ago)
Props on this game
2Michael Harris IIOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases-105
WActual 2
Michael Harris II enters this matchup against Jared Jones with a definitive tactical advantage. Jones has struggled significantly against left-handed hitters this season, surrendering a .299 batting average and a gaudy .932 OPS to that side of the plate.
Harris, entrenched in the leadoff spot for Atlanta, is a high-volume left-handed bat who consistently creates extra-base opportunities; he has recorded 2 or more total bases in four of his last five games according to his recent splits. While the game logs indicate a recent hitless stretch, a matchup against a pitcher with Jones’ specific platoon weakness is the ideal spot for a correction.
The 85-degree Pittsburgh air and wind blowing toward right field further boost the probability of Harris using his speed to turn singles into doubles or clearing the fence entirely.
Ryan O'HearnOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+135
LActual 1
The matchup between Ryan O'Hearn and Grant Holmes is a statistical collision course. Holmes' 3.83 ERA is propped up by luck; his 4.62 xERA and 43.7% hard-hit rate allowed indicate he is giving up consistent loud contact.
Specifically, Holmes has been vulnerable to left-handed power, giving up 9 home runs to LHB this season. O'Hearn is in the midst of a massive power surge, slashing 5 home runs in his last 10 games and clearing this 1.5 total base line in three of his last five outings.
With the wind blowing out to right field and temperatures reaching 85 degrees, O'Hearn’s pull-heavy left-handed swing is perfectly situated to find the gaps or the seats. At +135, the price is not properly accounting for O'Hearn's current form against a pitcher due for significant regression.
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