Sports picks for Tuesday, January 6, 2026
60 stored itemsGary’s saved picks and research for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Game picks
18
Lakers -5.5TALE OF THE TAPE Lakers Pelicans Record 22-11 ← 8-29 Net Rating +0.8 ← -7.1 EFG% 58.8% ← 53.2% Pace 100.9 → 103.2 Key Injuries Reaves (OUT) Murray (OUT) Gary's Take I see Luka Doncic absolutely carving up a Pelicans defense that has essentially quit on the season. New Orleans is riding a miserable seven-game losing streak and their defensive rating is among the worst in the league. Without Dejounte Murray to provide perimeter resistance, Doncic is going to have his way with the Pelicans' rookie-heavy backcourt. While the loss of Austin Reaves is a significant blow to the Lakers' scoring depth, the emergence of Jake LaRavia as a legitimate floor spacer has kept the offense humming. LaRavia has been playing the best basketball of his career lately, and his ability to punish teams for doubling Luka is the secret sauce for this Lakers unit. On the other side, the Pelicans' only real path to an upset lies in the hands of Zion Williamson. The Lakers have been vulnerable in the paint recently, and Zion leads the league in interior scoring. If he can force Deandre Ayton into early foul trouble and control the glass, New Orleans might hang around for a half. However, the Pelicans' lack of shooting—ranking 28th in effective field goal percentage—means the Lakers can simply pack the paint and dare rookies like Jeremiah Fears to beat them from the outside. Jordan Poole has been ice cold lately, and I do not trust this Pelicans roster to sustain a high-scoring pace against a team as disciplined as the Lakers. The Lakers have been road warriors this season with a 12-5 record away from home, showing they don't play down to their competition. They have already handled the Pelicans twice this season by double digits, and I expect a similar result tonight. LeBron James is still playing at a high level and his basketball IQ will be the difference-maker in the fourth quarter when things tighten up. The spread is a gift at 5.5 points; the talent disparity here is closer to double digits. I am laying the points with the Lakers as they continue their push for the top seed in the West.
TALE OF THE TAPE
Lakers Pelicans Record 22-11 ← 8-29 Net Rating +0.8 ← -7.1 EFG% 58.8% ← 53.2% Pace 100.9 → 103.2 Key Injuries Reaves (OUT) Murray (OUT)
Gary's Take I see Luka Doncic absolutely carving up a Pelicans defense that has essentially quit on the season. New Orleans is riding a miserable seven-game losing streak and their defensive rating is among the worst in the league. Without Dejounte Murray to provide perimeter resistance, Doncic is going to have his way with the Pelicans' rookie-heavy backcourt. While the loss of Austin Reaves is a significant blow to the Lakers' scoring depth, the emergence of Jake LaRavia as a legitimate floor spacer has kept the offense humming. LaRavia has been playing the best basketball of his career lately, and his ability to punish teams for doubling Luka is the secret sauce for this Lakers unit.
On the other side, the Pelicans' only real path to an upset lies in the hands of Zion Williamson. The Lakers have been vulnerable in the paint recently, and Zion leads the league in interior scoring. If he can force Deandre Ayton into early foul trouble and control the glass, New Orleans might hang around for a half. However, the Pelicans' lack of shooting—ranking 28th in effective field goal percentage—means the Lakers can simply pack the paint and dare rookies like Jeremiah Fears to beat them from the outside. Jordan Poole has been ice cold lately, and I do not trust this Pelicans roster to sustain a high-scoring pace against a team as disciplined as the Lakers.
The Lakers have been road warriors this season with a 12-5 record away from home, showing they don't play down to their competition. They have already handled the Pelicans twice this season by double digits, and I expect a similar result tonight. LeBron James is still playing at a high level and his basketball IQ will be the difference-maker in the fourth quarter when things tighten up. The spread is a gift at 5.5 points; the talent disparity here is closer to double digits. I am laying the points with the Lakers as they continue their push for the top seed in the West.
Timberwolves -4.5TALE OF THE TAPE Minnesota Miami Record 23-13 ← 20-16 Net Rating +5.6 ← +3.9 eFG% 57.6% ← 53.5% REB Rate 24.8% ← 20.8% Key Injuries Edwards (Q) Jaquez (OUT) Gary's Take We just saw this movie three days ago in Miami, and the sequel in Minneapolis looks even better for the Timberwolves. Minnesota walked into the Kaseya Center and dropped 125 points on the Heat, winning by double digits behind a masterclass from Anthony Edwards and Naz Reid. While Edwards is currently listed as questionable with foot maintenance, this line of -4.5 tells me the market is terrified he sits. Even if he does, Minnesota has the structural advantages to cover this number against a Miami squad that is fundamentally different than the one that went on a 5-1 run last month. The loss of Jaime Jaquez Jr. is the quietest massive factor in this game. Jaquez is Miami's defensive glue on the wing, and without him, they have nobody to physically match up with Julius Randle or Jaden McDaniels. In the last meeting, Minnesota's frontcourt dominated the paint 58-50, and that margin should widen tonight. Naz Reid remains the ultimate Heat killer; he scored 29 off the bench on Saturday because Miami's second-unit bigs simply cannot defend him on the perimeter. Miami is getting Tyler Herro back tonight, but that is a double-edged sword. Herro has missed 11 games, and while his 23 PPG is a welcome addition, he is stepping into a rhythm where Norman Powell has been the clear alpha. Rust is a real factor here, and the defensive drop-off from a Jaquez-heavy rotation to a Herro-heavy rotation plays right into Minnesota's hands. The Timberwolves rank significantly higher in effective field goal percentage and rebounding rate. At the Target Center, where they are 12-6, I expect Minnesota's size and efficiency to pull away late. I am laying the points with the Wolves, trusting their depth and superior shooting to handle business again. Timberwolves -4.5.
TALE OF THE TAPE
Minnesota Miami Record 23-13 ← 20-16 Net Rating +5.6 ← +3.9 eFG% 57.6% ← 53.5% REB Rate 24.8% ← 20.8% Key Injuries Edwards (Q) Jaquez (OUT)
Gary's Take We just saw this movie three days ago in Miami, and the sequel in Minneapolis looks even better for the Timberwolves. Minnesota walked into the Kaseya Center and dropped 125 points on the Heat, winning by double digits behind a masterclass from Anthony Edwards and Naz Reid. While Edwards is currently listed as questionable with foot maintenance, this line of -4.5 tells me the market is terrified he sits. Even if he does, Minnesota has the structural advantages to cover this number against a Miami squad that is fundamentally different than the one that went on a 5-1 run last month.
The loss of Jaime Jaquez Jr. is the quietest massive factor in this game. Jaquez is Miami's defensive glue on the wing, and without him, they have nobody to physically match up with Julius Randle or Jaden McDaniels. In the last meeting, Minnesota's frontcourt dominated the paint 58-50, and that margin should widen tonight. Naz Reid remains the ultimate Heat killer; he scored 29 off the bench on Saturday because Miami's second-unit bigs simply cannot defend him on the perimeter.
Miami is getting Tyler Herro back tonight, but that is a double-edged sword. Herro has missed 11 games, and while his 23 PPG is a welcome addition, he is stepping into a rhythm where Norman Powell has been the clear alpha. Rust is a real factor here, and the defensive drop-off from a Jaquez-heavy rotation to a Herro-heavy rotation plays right into Minnesota's hands. The Timberwolves rank significantly higher in effective field goal percentage and rebounding rate. At the Target Center, where they are 12-6, I expect Minnesota's size and efficiency to pull away late. I am laying the points with the Wolves, trusting their depth and superior shooting to handle business again. Timberwolves -4.5.
Pacers +6.5TALE OF THE TAPE Cleveland Cavaliers Indiana Pacers Record 20-17 ← 6-30 Net Rating +2.4 ← -7.9 Effective FG% 53.6 ← 53.1 Turnover Rate 12.0 → 10.8 Pace 104.1 ← 102.7 Key Injuries Mitchell (OUT) Mathurin (OUT) Gary's Take I'm flipping the script on this one. On the surface, taking a Cleveland Cavaliers team against an Indiana Pacers squad that has lost 12 straight games looks like the easiest money you'll ever make. But in this business, when a line looks too good to be true, you better start looking for the trap. The trap here is the massive hole left by Donovan Mitchell. While the public sees a 20-win team vs. a 6-win team, the sharps are looking at a Cleveland offense that is a staggering 17 points worse per 100 possessions when Mitchell isn't on the floor. Without his gravity and late-game shot-making, the Cavs are 1-2 this season and just dropped a game to the Pistons where the offense completely stagnated. On the other side, Pascal Siakam is playing like a man possessed. He’s averaging nearly 28 points over his last five games and is coming off a 34-point masterpiece. With Jarrett Allen potentially limited as he returns from an illness, Siakam is going to have room to operate in that mid-range. Indiana is depleted, sure, but they’ve been surprisingly competitive lately, dropping three of their last four games by 10 points or less. They are at home, they are desperate to snap this streak, and they’re facing a Cleveland team that historically struggles to find its rhythm when Mitchell sits. Darius Garland is a fine playmaker, but asking him to carry the entire scoring load against a Pacers team that still has pesky defenders like Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith is a tall order. I expect a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair where Cleveland’s defense keeps them in it, but their lack of a closer allows Indiana to hang around until the final buzzer. The 6.5 points are a gift in a game where the favorite is missing its heartbeat. Take the points with the home dog.
TALE OF THE TAPE
Cleveland Cavaliers Indiana Pacers Record 20-17 ← 6-30 Net Rating +2.4 ← -7.9 Effective FG% 53.6 ← 53.1 Turnover Rate 12.0 → 10.8 Pace 104.1 ← 102.7 Key Injuries Mitchell (OUT) Mathurin (OUT)
Gary's Take I'm flipping the script on this one. On the surface, taking a Cleveland Cavaliers team against an Indiana Pacers squad that has lost 12 straight games looks like the easiest money you'll ever make. But in this business, when a line looks too good to be true, you better start looking for the trap. The trap here is the massive hole left by Donovan Mitchell. While the public sees a 20-win team vs. a 6-win team, the sharps are looking at a Cleveland offense that is a staggering 17 points worse per 100 possessions when Mitchell isn't on the floor. Without his gravity and late-game shot-making, the Cavs are 1-2 this season and just dropped a game to the Pistons where the offense completely stagnated.
On the other side, Pascal Siakam is playing like a man possessed. He’s averaging nearly 28 points over his last five games and is coming off a 34-point masterpiece. With Jarrett Allen potentially limited as he returns from an illness, Siakam is going to have room to operate in that mid-range. Indiana is depleted, sure, but they’ve been surprisingly competitive lately, dropping three of their last four games by 10 points or less. They are at home, they are desperate to snap this streak, and they’re facing a Cleveland team that historically struggles to find its rhythm when Mitchell sits.
Darius Garland is a fine playmaker, but asking him to carry the entire scoring load against a Pacers team that still has pesky defenders like Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith is a tall order. I expect a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair where Cleveland’s defense keeps them in it, but their lack of a closer allows Indiana to hang around until the final buzzer. The 6.5 points are a gift in a game where the favorite is missing its heartbeat. Take the points with the home dog.
Butler Bulldogs +4.5Hinkle Fieldhouse is one of those places where logic often goes to die. Michael Ajayi is a double-double machine who leads the nation in rebounding against St. John's abysmal defensive boards (310th nationally). Butler ranks 16th in offensive rebounding - second chance points will be the equalizer.
Hinkle Fieldhouse is one of those places where logic often goes to die. Michael Ajayi is a double-double machine who leads the nation in rebounding against St. John's abysmal defensive boards (310th nationally). Butler ranks 16th in offensive rebounding - second chance points will be the equalizer.
Tennessee Volunteers -10.5Rick Barnes hosting his former program in Knoxville. Tennessee has the third-best defensive efficiency in the country and the best offensive rebounding team. Texas is 1-4 in Quad 1 and 2 games. Vols pull away second half.
Rick Barnes hosting his former program in Knoxville. Tennessee has the third-best defensive efficiency in the country and the best offensive rebounding team. Texas is 1-4 in Quad 1 and 2 games. Vols pull away second half.
Florida Gators -9.5Georgia's #18 ranking is a mirage - bottom SOS. Florida is the best rebounding team in the country. Mike White is 1-6 against Todd Golden for a reason. The O-Dome is difficult for visitors.
Georgia's #18 ranking is a mirage - bottom SOS. Florida is the best rebounding team in the country. Mike White is 1-6 against Todd Golden for a reason. The O-Dome is difficult for visitors.
Duke Blue Devils MoneylineCameron Boozer is the best player in the country and Louisville's interior defense is their glaring weakness. Without Mikel Brown Jr., Louisville's offense has looked disjointed. Duke holds opponents to very low percentage from deep.
Cameron Boozer is the best player in the country and Louisville's interior defense is their glaring weakness. Without Mikel Brown Jr., Louisville's offense has looked disjointed. Duke holds opponents to very low percentage from deep.
Texas Tech Red Raiders +6.5Two teams in bottom ten for tempo - every possession is high stakes. 6.5 points is wide for a low-possession game. JT Toppin is All-American who can score from all levels. Emanuel Sharp 0-for-9 last game.
Two teams in bottom ten for tempo - every possession is high stakes. 6.5 points is wide for a low-possession game. JT Toppin is All-American who can score from all levels. Emanuel Sharp 0-for-9 last game.
Wisconsin Badgers -3.5Kohl Center is house of horrors for visitors. UCLA is 1-4 away from home. Skyy Clark hamstring injury 3 days ago is huge - primary defender and floor spacer. Nolan Winter is a 7-foot matchup nightmare.
Kohl Center is house of horrors for visitors. UCLA is 1-4 away from home. Skyy Clark hamstring injury 3 days ago is huge - primary defender and floor spacer. Nolan Winter is a 7-foot matchup nightmare.
TCU Horned Frogs +7.5Devil's Advocate flip! Kansas's recent losses expose vulnerability - they've dropped 2 of last 3. TCU's three-guard lineup creates mismatches Kansas struggles with. Jamie Dixon's team matches up better than the spread suggests.
Devil's Advocate flip! Kansas's recent losses expose vulnerability - they've dropped 2 of last 3. TCU's three-guard lineup creates mismatches Kansas struggles with. Jamie Dixon's team matches up better than the spread suggests.
Texas A&M Aggies +6.5Auburn coming off ugly loss to Georgia - emotional letdown spot. A&M's Zhuric Phelps can go shot-for-shot with anyone. Wade Taylor IV is a difference maker. Aggies keep it close in hostile environment.
Auburn coming off ugly loss to Georgia - emotional letdown spot. A&M's Zhuric Phelps can go shot-for-shot with anyone. Wade Taylor IV is a difference maker. Aggies keep it close in hostile environment.
West Virginia Mountaineers MoneylineWVU's press-Virginia defense is perfect antidote for Cincinnati's turnover-prone attack. Sencire Harris leads potent backcourt. The Coliseum is rocking. Bearcats don't have the guard play to handle pressure.
WVU's press-Virginia defense is perfect antidote for Cincinnati's turnover-prone attack. Sencire Harris leads potent backcourt. The Coliseum is rocking. Bearcats don't have the guard play to handle pressure.
Syracuse Orange -2.5Syracuse's zone disrupts Georgia Tech's offensive flow. Orange have more weapons with Elijah Moore and Chris Bell. Tech's home court advantage is minimal against experienced ACC teams.
Syracuse's zone disrupts Georgia Tech's offensive flow. Orange have more weapons with Elijah Moore and Chris Bell. Tech's home court advantage is minimal against experienced ACC teams.
South Carolina Gamecocks +7.5South Carolina's defense travels well. LSU has been inconsistent all season. The Gamecocks have the personnel to slow down LSU's transition attack. 7.5 is too many points.
South Carolina's defense travels well. LSU has been inconsistent all season. The Gamecocks have the personnel to slow down LSU's transition attack. 7.5 is too many points.
Iowa Hawkeyes -5.5The Drake Derby - Ben McCollum brought his championship system from Drake to Iowa. Hawkeyes have top 20 defense (#17 KenPom). Minnesota down to 8 scholarship players after injuries. Iowa will suck air out of The Barn with crawling tempo.
The Drake Derby - Ben McCollum brought his championship system from Drake to Iowa. Hawkeyes have top 20 defense (#17 KenPom). Minnesota down to 8 scholarship players after injuries. Iowa will suck air out of The Barn with crawling tempo.
Georgetown Hoyas MoneylineGeorgetown's Ed Cooley brings physical Big East defense. KJ Lewis averaging 15.2 PPG is the best player on the floor. DePaul's reliance on three-point volume is high variance. Value on underdog ML.
Georgetown's Ed Cooley brings physical Big East defense. KJ Lewis averaging 15.2 PPG is the best player on the floor. DePaul's reliance on three-point volume is high variance. Value on underdog ML.
Boston College Eagles +11.5BC's Chad Venning provides interior presence SMU will struggle with. Eagles play disciplined half-court offense. 11.5 is too many points for an ACC road game where BC has nothing to lose.
BC's Chad Venning provides interior presence SMU will struggle with. Eagles play disciplined half-court offense. 11.5 is too many points for an ACC road game where BC has nothing to lose.
Mavericks -4.5TALE OF THE TAPE Dallas Mavericks Sacramento Kings Record 13-23 ← 8-28 Net Rating -4.2 ← -11.7 eFG% 53.8% ← 52.5% Pace 104.4 → 102.3 Key Injuries Irving/Lively Sabonis/Murray Gary's Take Don't let the Dallas Mavericks' road record scare you off this spot. While they've been shaky away from home all season, they are walking into a situation in Sacramento that looks like a total collapse. The Kings have dropped five straight games, and they haven't just been losing—they've been getting dismantled by an average of nearly 25 points per game during this skid. With Domantas Sabonis already sidelined, the fresh loss of Keegan Murray to an ankle sprain on Sunday strips this roster of its best two-way wing and its most reliable floor spacer. The real story tonight is the return of Anthony Davis. When these two teams met on December 26 and Sacramento walked away with a win, Davis was in street clothes. Tonight, he's the biggest shark in the tank. Sacramento is forced to rely on Drew Eubanks and the rookie Maxime Raynaud to protect the rim, which is a recipe for a 30-point, 15-rebound masterclass from AD. Davis proved he's back to full strength with a 39-minute, 5-block performance against Houston, and I don't see anyone on this Kings roster capable of making him break a sweat in the paint. Dallas is also coming in with a significant rest advantage, having three full days to prepare for a Kings team that looks physically and mentally exhausted. While Cooper Flagg has seen his scoring dip slightly in the last week, his playmaking remains elite, and he'll have plenty of open lanes with the Kings' defense currently ranking near the bottom of the league in opponent field goal percentage. Sacramento is a team currently playing for the lottery, while Dallas is still within striking distance of a play-in spot. Expect the Mavericks to dominate the interior and pull away late as the Kings' lack of depth is exposed. Take the Mavericks to cover the short number.
TALE OF THE TAPE
Dallas Mavericks Sacramento Kings Record 13-23 ← 8-28 Net Rating -4.2 ← -11.7 eFG% 53.8% ← 52.5% Pace 104.4 → 102.3 Key Injuries Irving/Lively Sabonis/Murray
Gary's Take Don't let the Dallas Mavericks' road record scare you off this spot. While they've been shaky away from home all season, they are walking into a situation in Sacramento that looks like a total collapse. The Kings have dropped five straight games, and they haven't just been losing—they've been getting dismantled by an average of nearly 25 points per game during this skid. With Domantas Sabonis already sidelined, the fresh loss of Keegan Murray to an ankle sprain on Sunday strips this roster of its best two-way wing and its most reliable floor spacer.
The real story tonight is the return of Anthony Davis. When these two teams met on December 26 and Sacramento walked away with a win, Davis was in street clothes. Tonight, he's the biggest shark in the tank. Sacramento is forced to rely on Drew Eubanks and the rookie Maxime Raynaud to protect the rim, which is a recipe for a 30-point, 15-rebound masterclass from AD. Davis proved he's back to full strength with a 39-minute, 5-block performance against Houston, and I don't see anyone on this Kings roster capable of making him break a sweat in the paint.
Dallas is also coming in with a significant rest advantage, having three full days to prepare for a Kings team that looks physically and mentally exhausted. While Cooper Flagg has seen his scoring dip slightly in the last week, his playmaking remains elite, and he'll have plenty of open lanes with the Kings' defense currently ranking near the bottom of the league in opponent field goal percentage. Sacramento is a team currently playing for the lottery, while Dallas is still within striking distance of a play-in spot. Expect the Mavericks to dominate the interior and pull away late as the Kings' lack of depth is exposed. Take the Mavericks to cover the short number.
Player props
12Look, when Franz Wagner goes down, the Magic don't just lose a player; they lose their secondary engine. That leaves Paolo Banchero as the undisputed alpha in Orlando, and he's been relishing the role. Over his last four games without Franz, he's been a scoring machine, averaging nearly 28 a night. Tonight he gets a Washington defense that's basically a revolving door, ranking 29th in the league and giving up points in bunches. I expect Paolo to live at the rim and the free-throw line. In a high-possession game against a Wizards team that can't protect the paint, 27 points is light work for a guy with this much usage.
Look, when Franz Wagner goes down, the Magic don't just lose a player; they lose their secondary engine. That leaves Paolo Banchero as the undisputed alpha in Orlando, and he's been relishing the role.
Over his last four games without Franz, he's been a scoring machine, averaging nearly 28 a night. Tonight he gets a Washington defense that's basically a revolving door, ranking 29th in the league and giving up points in bunches.
I expect Paolo to live at the rim and the free-throw line. In a high-possession game against a Wizards team that can't protect the paint, 27 points is light work for a guy with this much usage.
I'm looking at Jake LaRavia and I see a kid who has completely seized the moment with Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura sidelined. He's not just filling a spot; he's becoming a focal point, logging 37 and 35 minutes in his last two outings while dropping 21 and 26 points. The books are still treating him like a bench piece with this 12.5 line, but as long as the Lakers are this shorthanded, he's going to have the green light. Against a Pelicans defense that's been bleeding points during this seven-game skid, LaRavia should cruise past this number. He's on a heater, and I'm riding it until the Lakers get healthy.
I'm looking at Jake LaRavia and I see a kid who has completely seized the moment with Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura sidelined. He's not just filling a spot; he's becoming a focal point, logging 37 and 35 minutes in his last two outings while dropping 21 and 26 points.
The books are still treating him like a bench piece with this 12.5 line, but as long as the Lakers are this shorthanded, he's going to have the green light. Against a Pelicans defense that's been bleeding points during this seven-game skid, LaRavia should cruise past this number.
He's on a heater, and I'm riding it until the Lakers get healthy.
Gary sees the rookie Stephon Castle taking over the floor general duties with a veteran's poise. With Devin Vassell sidelined, Castle has been the primary beneficiary of the usage vacuum, and he's been dealing. He's cleared this 6.5 assist line in five straight games, including a 9-assist gem just three days ago. The Grizzlies are playing at a breakneck pace and are missing their best perimeter defenders, which means Castle is going to have wide-open lanes to drive and kick all night. I expect him to flirt with a double-double as the Spurs hunt their 5th straight road win.
Gary sees the rookie Stephon Castle taking over the floor general duties with a veteran's poise. With Devin Vassell sidelined, Castle has been the primary beneficiary of the usage vacuum, and he's been dealing.
He's cleared this 6.5 assist line in five straight games, including a 9-assist gem just three days ago. The Grizzlies are playing at a breakneck pace and are missing their best perimeter defenders, which means Castle is going to have wide-open lanes to drive and kick all night.
I expect him to flirt with a double-double as the Spurs hunt their 5th straight road win.
Since the trade that reshaped this Miami roster, Norman Powell has transformed into the Heat's undisputed primary engine. He's currently on a tear, scoring 20-plus in six straight games and coming off a career-high nine triples against the Pelicans. With Jaime Jaquez Jr. ruled out and Tyler Herro hobbled by a toe injury, the volume for Powell is as safe as a vault. Miami is playing at the fastest pace in the league this season, which means more possessions and more shots for a guy who is shooting the lights out right now. I expect him to stay aggressive and cruise past this 22.5 line in a high-octane environment.
Since the trade that reshaped this Miami roster, Norman Powell has transformed into the Heat's undisputed primary engine. He's currently on a tear, scoring 20-plus in six straight games and coming off a career-high nine triples against the Pelicans.
With Jaime Jaquez Jr. ruled out and Tyler Herro hobbled by a toe injury, the volume for Powell is as safe as a vault.
Miami is playing at the fastest pace in the league this season, which means more possessions and more shots for a guy who is shooting the lights out right now. I expect him to stay aggressive and cruise past this 22.5 line in a high-octane environment.
With Donovan Mitchell officially resting, the keys to the Cavs' offense are handed back to Darius Garland. We've seen this movie before; when Mitchell sits, Garland turns into an aggressive, score-first floor general. He dropped 35 points in his only other game without Spida this season, and tonight he faces an Indiana defense that is currently a revolving door. The Pacers are on a 12-game losing streak and have no answer for dynamic guards. I expect Garland to hunt his shot early and often in what should be a high-possession track meet.
With Donovan Mitchell officially resting, the keys to the Cavs' offense are handed back to Darius Garland. We've seen this movie before; when Mitchell sits, Garland turns into an aggressive, score-first floor general.
He dropped 35 points in his only other game without Spida this season, and tonight he faces an Indiana defense that is currently a revolving door. The Pacers are on a 12-game losing streak and have no answer for dynamic guards.
I expect Garland to hunt his shot early and often in what should be a high-possession track meet.
Anthony Black is having his 'arrival' moment right before our eyes. With Suggs and Wagner sidelined, the sophomore has been thrust into a massive playmaking and scoring role, and he's not just filling in—he's dominating. He's coming off a historic 27-point double-double against Indiana where he looked like a seasoned vet. The books haven't caught up to his new reality yet, still hanging a line in the low 20s despite him averaging 25 over his last five. Washington's backcourt defense is practically non-existent, and Black's size and downhill aggression are going to be a nightmare for them all night long. Ride the hot hand while the price is still this low.
Anthony Black is having his 'arrival' moment right before our eyes. With Suggs and Wagner sidelined, the sophomore has been thrust into a massive playmaking and scoring role, and he's not just filling in—he's dominating.
He's coming off a historic 27-point double-double against Indiana where he looked like a seasoned vet. The books haven't caught up to his new reality yet, still hanging a line in the low 20s despite him averaging 25 over his last five.
Washington's backcourt defense is practically non-existent, and Black's size and downhill aggression are going to be a nightmare for them all night long. Ride the hot hand while the price is still this low.
Listen, the books haven't caught up to what Luke Kornet is doing in the paint while Wembanyama is banged up. Even if Wemby suits up tonight, he's going to be on a tight leash, leaving Kornet to do the heavy lifting against a Memphis frontcourt that is absolutely decimated. With Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke out, the Grizzlies are essentially starting a G-League rotation in the post. Kornet has grabbed at least 8 boards in four of his last five games, and in a high-possession game like this one, those easy defensive rebounds are going to pile up.
Listen, the books haven't caught up to what Luke Kornet is doing in the paint while Wembanyama is banged up. Even if Wemby suits up tonight, he's going to be on a tight leash, leaving Kornet to do the heavy lifting against a Memphis frontcourt that is absolutely decimated. With Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke out, the Grizzlies are essentially starting a G-League rotation in the post. Kornet has grabbed at least 8 boards in four of his last five games, and in a high-possession game like this one, those easy defensive rebounds are going to pile up.
Some players just have a specific opponent's number, and for Naz Reid, that team is the Miami Heat. He absolutely dismantled them just three days ago, dropping 29 points and looking completely unstoppable in the second half. With Anthony Edwards nursing a foot injury and officially questionable, Reid is the natural candidate to shoulder a heavier scoring load if the 'Ant-Man' is at all limited. Even if Edwards plays his usual minutes, Reid's ability to stretch the floor and punish Miami's second unit makes this 15.5 line look like a bargain. He's a 'Heat Killer' for a reason, and I'm riding the hot hand here.
Some players just have a specific opponent's number, and for Naz Reid, that team is the Miami Heat. He absolutely dismantled them just three days ago, dropping 29 points and looking completely unstoppable in the second half.
With Anthony Edwards nursing a foot injury and officially questionable, Reid is the natural candidate to shoulder a heavier scoring load if the 'Ant-Man' is at all limited. Even if Edwards plays his usual minutes, Reid's ability to stretch the floor and punish Miami's second unit makes this 15.5 line look like a bargain.
He's a 'Heat Killer' for a reason, and I'm riding the hot hand here.
I'm looking at Anthony Davis tonight and seeing a man amongst boys in that Sacramento paint. With Domantas Sabonis sidelined with a meniscus tear, the Kings have absolutely nobody who can look AD in the eye, let alone stop him from getting to his spots. Sacramento is already struggling near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency, and losing their primary post defender is the nail in the coffin. Davis has been aggressive lately, dropping 26 in his last outing and clearing 30 twice in his last five games. In a high-paced game like this—Dallas is 4th in pace now—AD is going to have plenty of opportunities to feast on a depleted frontcourt.
I'm looking at Anthony Davis tonight and seeing a man amongst boys in that Sacramento paint. With Domantas Sabonis sidelined with a meniscus tear, the Kings have absolutely nobody who can look AD in the eye, let alone stop him from getting to his spots.
Sacramento is already struggling near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency, and losing their primary post defender is the nail in the coffin. Davis has been aggressive lately, dropping 26 in his last outing and clearing 30 twice in his last five games.
In a high-paced game like this—Dallas is 4th in pace now—AD is going to have plenty of opportunities to feast on a depleted frontcourt.
Pascal Siakam is the last man standing for a Pacers team desperate to avoid a franchise-record losing streak. He's been playing like a man possessed, clearing this 24.5 line in three of his last five games, including a 34-point outburst just two days ago. With Tyrese Haliburton out for the year, the offense is funneling through Siakam in the mid-post and transition. Cleveland's defense is stout, but if Jarrett Allen is sidelined with his respiratory illness, Siakam will have a massive advantage attacking the paint. He's in a contract year and knows he needs to carry this heavy load every single night.
Pascal Siakam is the last man standing for a Pacers team desperate to avoid a franchise-record losing streak. He's been playing like a man possessed, clearing this 24.5 line in three of his last five games, including a 34-point outburst just two days ago.
With Tyrese Haliburton out for the year, the offense is funneling through Siakam in the mid-post and transition. Cleveland's defense is stout, but if Jarrett Allen is sidelined with his respiratory illness, Siakam will have a massive advantage attacking the paint.
He's in a contract year and knows he needs to carry this heavy load every single night.
Luka is the sun that the Lakers' universe revolves around, and right now, that sun is burning white-hot. With Reaves out for the next month, the playmaking and scoring burden on Luka goes from heavy to astronomical. He's coming off a 36-point masterclass against Memphis and now gets a Pelicans team that plays at the second-fastest tempo in the league at home. This game has a massive 243.5 total, which is exactly the kind of environment where Luka thrives. I expect him to manipulate this struggling New Orleans defense all night and clear this high bar with room to spare.
Luka is the sun that the Lakers' universe revolves around, and right now, that sun is burning white-hot. With Reaves out for the next month, the playmaking and scoring burden on Luka goes from heavy to astronomical.
He's coming off a 36-point masterclass against Memphis and now gets a Pelicans team that plays at the second-fastest tempo in the league at home. This game has a massive 243.5 total, which is exactly the kind of environment where Luka thrives.
I expect him to manipulate this struggling New Orleans defense all night and clear this high bar with room to spare.
Russell Westbrook is playing like he's found the fountain of youth lately, and the Kings desperately need that fire with Sabonis and Murray in the trainer's room. Over his last two games, Russ has looked like the primary engine, putting up 21 and 17 points while attacking the rim with reckless abandon. This Dallas team is playing at the 4th fastest pace in the league now, which is exactly the kind of track meet where Westbrook thrives. He’s seeing a significant bump in usage and isn't hesitating to take the reins of this offense. I love the energy he's bringing to a struggling Sacramento squad, and I don't see him slowing down in a national TV spotlight tonight.
Russell Westbrook is playing like he's found the fountain of youth lately, and the Kings desperately need that fire with Sabonis and Murray in the trainer's room. Over his last two games, Russ has looked like the primary engine, putting up 21 and 17 points while attacking the rim with reckless abandon.
This Dallas team is playing at the 4th fastest pace in the league now, which is exactly the kind of track meet where Westbrook thrives. He’s seeing a significant bump in usage and isn't hesitating to take the reins of this offense.
I love the energy he's bringing to a struggling Sacramento squad, and I don't see him slowing down in a national TV spotlight tonight.
Graded results
30Games
- W
Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 -105
NBA · 111-103
- W
Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 -108
NBA · 94-122
- W
Indiana Pacers +6.5 -112
NBA · 120-116
- L
Butler Bulldogs +4.5 +100
NCAAB · 84-70
- W
Tennessee Volunteers -10.5 -108
NCAAB · 71-85
- W
Florida Gators -9.5 -115
NCAAB · 77-92
- W
Duke Blue Devils ML -108
NCAAB · 84-73
- W
Texas Tech Red Raiders +6.5 -118
NCAAB · 65-69
- W
Wisconsin Badgers -3.5 -108
NCAAB · 72-80
- W
TCU Horned Frogs +7.5 -108
NCAAB · 100-104
- W
Texas A&M Aggies +6.5 -112
NCAAB · 90-88
- W
West Virginia Mountaineers ML -120
NCAAB · 60-62
- W
Syracuse Orange -2.5 -106
NCAAB · 82-72
- W
South Carolina Gamecocks +7.5 -110
NCAAB · 78-68
- L
Iowa Hawkeyes -5.5 -102
NCAAB · 67-70
- L
Georgetown Hoyas ML +124
NCAAB · 50-56
- L
Dallas Mavericks -4.5 -105
NBA · 100-98
- W
Boston College Eagles +11.5 -102
NCAAB · 79-71
Props
- L
Anthony Black · over
Orlando Magic @ Washington Wizards · Actual 6
- L
Anthony Davis · over
Dallas Mavericks @ Sacramento Kings · Actual 19
- W
Darius Garland · over
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers · Actual 29
- L
Jake LaRavia · over
Los Angeles Lakers @ New Orleans Pelicans · Actual 5
- L
Luka Doncic · over
Los Angeles Lakers @ New Orleans Pelicans · Actual 30
- W
Luke Kornet · over
San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies · Actual 7
- L
Naz Reid · over
Miami Heat @ Minnesota Timberwolves · Actual 14
- L
Norman Powell · over
Miami Heat @ Minnesota Timberwolves · Actual 21
- L
Paolo Banchero · over
Orlando Magic @ Washington Wizards · Actual 14
- L
Pascal Siakam · over
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers · Actual 22
- L
Russell Westbrook · over
Dallas Mavericks @ Sacramento Kings · Actual 11
- L
Stephon Castle · over
San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies · Actual 4