Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings
Golden 1 Center
Dallas Mavericks -4.5-105
LLostFinal 100-98
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE
Dallas Mavericks Sacramento Kings Record 13-23 ← 8-28 Net Rating -4.2 ← -11.7 eFG% 53.8% ← 52.5% Pace 104.4 → 102.3 Key Injuries Irving/Lively Sabonis/Murray
Gary's Take Don't let the Dallas Mavericks' road record scare you off this spot. While they've been shaky away from home all season, they are walking into a situation in Sacramento that looks like a total collapse. The Kings have dropped five straight games, and they haven't just been losing—they've been getting dismantled by an average of nearly 25 points per game during this skid. With Domantas Sabonis already sidelined, the fresh loss of Keegan Murray to an ankle sprain on Sunday strips this roster of its best two-way wing and its most reliable floor spacer.
The real story tonight is the return of Anthony Davis. When these two teams met on December 26 and Sacramento walked away with a win, Davis was in street clothes. Tonight, he's the biggest shark in the tank. Sacramento is forced to rely on Drew Eubanks and the rookie Maxime Raynaud to protect the rim, which is a recipe for a 30-point, 15-rebound masterclass from AD. Davis proved he's back to full strength with a 39-minute, 5-block performance against Houston, and I don't see anyone on this Kings roster capable of making him break a sweat in the paint.
Dallas is also coming in with a significant rest advantage, having three full days to prepare for a Kings team that looks physically and mentally exhausted. While Cooper Flagg has seen his scoring dip slightly in the last week, his playmaking remains elite, and he'll have plenty of open lanes with the Kings' defense currently ranking near the bottom of the league in opponent field goal percentage. Sacramento is a team currently playing for the lottery, while Dallas is still within striking distance of a play-in spot. Expect the Mavericks to dominate the interior and pull away late as the Kings' lack of depth is exposed. Take the Mavericks to cover the short number.
Injuries noted
Dallas Mavericks: P.J. Washington (Out) — As expected, Washington will be held out of Tuesday's contest after spraining his right ankle in Saturday's win over Houston. His next opportunity to play will come Thursday against the Jazz. With Washington sidelined, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson and Caleb Martin are candidates for increased playing time.; Dereck Lively II (Out) — Lively sought out multiple opinions on his right foot, but it was ultimately determined that season-ending surgery was the best course of action for the third-year center, and he's expected to make a full recovery ahead of the 2026-27 season. Daniel Gafford and Dwight Powell will continue to serve as the main big men for Dallas behind Anthony Davis in Lively's absence.; Kyrie Irving (Out) — Irving tore the ACL in his left knee at the beginning of March, ending his 2024-25 campaign, but after undergoing surgery, the Mavericks said they were optimistic their superstar guard would return to action before 2026, per Shams Charania of ESPN. Before training camp this season, there was another positive update about Irving's recovery, with Ashish Mathur of the Dallas Hoops Journal reporting that the veteran was ahead of schedule in his recovery. However, a few days later, head coach Jason Kidd pumped the brakes, saying Irving is doing "quite well" but added that declaring he was "ahead of schedule is not fair," per Christian Clark of The Athletic. It's clear that Irving and the Mavericks don't want to pick a target date until they are absolutely certain he's ready for game action, but Afseth notes that the vibe around the organization is that Irving could return before the mid-February All-Star break. "I've personally liked, from my understanding of the situation, have long held the thought that there's optimism of a pre-All-Star break return. But that's not ever been like super like that's happening, there hasn't been a set guarantee like anything of that nature," Afseth concluded. NBA insider Marc J. Spears also relayed a promising update on Irving in mid-November, "Kyrie's looking good. He's ahead of schedule," Spears said. "He's working out with the purpose of playing this season, which I'm sure Mavs fans are glad to hear. I think, optimistic-wise, around late-January, All-Star break. Someone close to him told me that if it was the playoffs, he could play right now. That's how ahead of schedule he is." Despite all the optimism, fantasy managers are going to be left in the dark for at least a few more weeks before we learn anything definitive. Irving has been spotted doing light, individual drills at recent practices and is spending a lot of time mentoring Cooper Flagg.; Dante Exum (Out) — Exum needs a follow-up procedure after dealing with complications from offseason right knee surgery, which will keep him sidelined for the remainder of the year. The veteran guard will be an unrestricted free agent next summer. Until Kyrie Irving (knee) is cleared to play, D'Angelo Russell and Brandon Williams should continue to share the minutes at point guard.
Sacramento Kings: Keegan Murray (Out) — Murray suffered a left ankle sprain in Sunday's loss to the Bucks, and he could need to sit out as long as four weeks with the injury. The timetable for a return is likely to keep him out until late January or early February. With Murray sidelined, the likes of Precious Achiuwa, Nique Clifford and Keon Ellis will all have an opportunity to pick up the slack.; Domantas Sabonis (Out) — Sabonis has been rehabbing from a partially torn meniscus in his left knee that he sustained in mid-November. His absence will extend into the new year, and it's unclear whether the veteran center will be available to return before the All-Star break in February. Rookie second-rounder Maxime Raynaud has started in each of the Kings' last five games and should remain in the starting lineup for as long as Sabonis is sidelined.
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Props on this game
2Anthony DavisOVER 24.5 Points Points-116
LActual 19
I'm looking at Anthony Davis tonight and seeing a man amongst boys in that Sacramento paint. With Domantas Sabonis sidelined with a meniscus tear, the Kings have absolutely nobody who can look AD in the eye, let alone stop him from getting to his spots.
Sacramento is already struggling near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency, and losing their primary post defender is the nail in the coffin. Davis has been aggressive lately, dropping 26 in his last outing and clearing 30 twice in his last five games.
In a high-paced game like this—Dallas is 4th in pace now—AD is going to have plenty of opportunities to feast on a depleted frontcourt.
Russell WestbrookOVER 13.5 Points Points-126
LActual 11
Russell Westbrook is playing like he's found the fountain of youth lately, and the Kings desperately need that fire with Sabonis and Murray in the trainer's room. Over his last two games, Russ has looked like the primary engine, putting up 21 and 17 points while attacking the rim with reckless abandon.
This Dallas team is playing at the 4th fastest pace in the league now, which is exactly the kind of track meet where Westbrook thrives. He’s seeing a significant bump in usage and isn't hesitating to take the reins of this offense.
I love the energy he's bringing to a struggling Sacramento squad, and I don't see him slowing down in a national TV spotlight tonight.
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