Sports picks for Monday, January 5, 2026

Listen, with Josh Hart sidelined for his sixth straight game, OG Anunoby isn't just a defensive stopper anymore; he's the Knicks' primary glass-cleaner on the wing. Hart leaves a massive 9-rebound-per-game hole in the rotation, and OG has been the one filling the void, averaging over 8 boards in his last five outings. Tonight, he faces a Detroit squad missing their own rebounding anchor in Jalen Duren, which means the paint is going to be wide open for a guy with OG's length and motor. I see him easily clearing this 5.5 line by the third quarter as he battles Isaiah Stewart and Paul Reed for those loose balls. The Knicks are desperate to end a three-game skid, and that starts with winning the possession battle on the boards.

Listen, when a kid goes back to his hometown, he doesn't just play—he puts on a show. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is a Toronto native, and he's walking into that arena tonight with the greenest light of his career. With Trae Young sidelined, the Hawks have handed the keys to Nickeil, and he's been driving that car like he stole it, averaging 31 points over his last few starts. He just torched this same Raptors defense for 31 points two nights ago, and I don't see them finding an answer in 48 hours. The usage is through the roof, the motivation is personal, and the Hawks' high-paced offense is the perfect stage for him to clear this 20.5 line by the third quarter. Take the over and don't look back.

Listen, when Jayson Tatum sits, Jaylen Brown doesn't just step up—he takes over the entire building. We're talking about a guy who's already fourth in the league in scoring, but that average jumps to nearly 33 points a night when he's flying solo. He's coming off a massive 50-point night and he's playing with a chip on his shoulder after that December awards snub. The Bulls are rolling out a bottom-five defense that's giving up over 121 points a game, and they don't have anyone who can stay in front of Brown when he's in 'mission mode.' I expect him to hunt his shot early and often, carving up a Chicago perimeter that's missing its best playmakers. This isn't just a game for Jaylen; it's a statement.

Listen, Chet Holmgren isn't just playing defense; he's patrolling the paint like he owns the deed to the arena. The kid is the frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year for a reason, and his recent stretch is nothing short of historic. He's swatted at least two shots in every single one of his last five games, including a six-block masterpiece against Portland. Charlotte loves to attack the rim with LaMelo and Bridges, but they're going to find out quickly that the 'Chet-erator' is open for business. With OKC's frontcourt thin due to injuries, Chet is going to be the lone rim protector for heavy minutes, giving him plenty of opportunities to send those Hornet layups into the third row.

Listen, when a guy like Alperen Sengun goes down, those 10-12 rebounds a night don't just vanish into thin air—somebody's gotta go get 'em. Tari Eason is that guy. I’ve been watching the tape, and Eason is playing with a different level of energy lately, snatching 10, 9, and 8 boards in his last three outings. He’s a high-motor kid who thrives in chaos, and with Phoenix coming in on the second night of a back-to-back, there’s going to be plenty of long rebounds and tired legs to exploit. At 6.5, the books are practically begging you to take the over on a guy who’s essentially the Rockets' primary interior force tonight.

I’m looking at Tyrese Maxey tonight and I see a man who is simply playing at a different speed than everyone else. He’s the engine of this Sixers team, leading the league in minutes, and he’s currently on a scoring tear with three straight games of 34 or more points. Denver is walking into a buzzsaw here—they’re on the second night of a back-to-back, their fifth game in eight days, and they’re missing their defensive anchor in Nikola Jokic. Without Jokic to protect the rim or slow the pace, Maxey is going to live in the paint and in transition all night long. This line is sitting below his season average of 31.1, and in a primetime game, Maxey is the kind of showman who’s going to put on a clinic. Expect him to clear this 28.5 mark with room to spare as he carves up a fatigued Nuggets backcourt.

When the big dog goes down, somebody has to eat, and Peyton Watson has been feasting in the vacuum left by Nikola Jokic. Over his last three games, Watson has looked like a completely different player, dropping 24, 21, and 23 points as the Nuggets search for scoring punch. He’s not just a role player anymore; he’s a primary option in this short-handed rotation, especially with the frontcourt decimated. The books haven’t fully adjusted to this version of Watson yet, keeping his line at a modest 15.5 despite his 18.8 average over the last five. Philadelphia’s defense is going to be preoccupied with Jamal Murray, leaving Watson with plenty of clean looks and opportunities to attack the rim. I expect his aggressive play to continue tonight as he easily clears this number for the fourth straight game.

Karl-Anthony Towns is playing some of the most inspired basketball of his career right now, and he's coming off a historic milestone that has him locked in. Detroit is a dream matchup for KAT tonight because they're forced to start Isaiah Stewart at center with Jalen Duren out. Stewart is a warrior, but he's giving up significant height and length to KAT, who has been a vacuum on the glass lately, averaging 12.4 rebounds over his last five. Mike Brown has been experimenting with bigger lineups, often pairing KAT with Mitchell Robinson, which actually frees KAT up to hunt defensive boards while Robinson boxes out the bigs. In a high-stakes battle for the #1 seed, expect KAT to dominate the interior against a tired Pistons frontcourt on the second night of a back-to-back.

The books haven't caught up to the 'Mamu' effect yet, and we're going to make them pay for it. With Jakob Poeltl out for the seventh straight game, Sandro Mamukelashvili has stepped into a massive role as a point-center, and he's feasting on the glass. He grabbed 12 boards against this same Atlanta team on Saturday, and that wasn't a fluke—it's a product of his 32 minutes of high-energy play. Atlanta ranks 3rd in pace, which means there are going to be plenty of missed shots and long rebounds for a guy with Mamu's motor. He's cleared this 5.5 line in three of his last five games, and in the two he missed, he didn't have the starting minutes he has now. This is a classic 'Usage Vacuum' play that Gary loves.

With Tatum out of the picture, Derrick White is the guy who keeps the engine purring for this Celtics offense. He's been playing some of the most aggressive basketball of his career lately, putting up 21 points a night over his last five outings. He's not just a 'glue guy' anymore; he's a legitimate scoring threat who knows exactly how to exploit a weak defensive rotation. Chicago is missing Giddey and Smith, which leaves their interior and perimeter defense scrambled. White is a master at finding the soft spots in those coverages, whether it's a pull-up three or a crafty drive to the cup. He's cleared this line comfortably in three of his last five, and in a game where Boston is a double-digit favorite, he'll be the one putting the nail in the coffin.

When the lights get bright and the roster gets thin, Charles Lee turns to his veteran workhorse, Miles Bridges. We've got a situation here where Charlotte's leading rookie scorer, Kon Knueppel, is hobbled with a hip issue, and that leaves a massive 19-point vacuum in the offense. Bridges is already averaging over 20 a night on the season, so seeing this line at 17.5 feels like the books are sleeping on his role. He's a physical mismatch for OKC's smaller wings, and I expect him to bully his way to the cup early and often. Whether Knueppel plays or not, Bridges is the emotional leader of this squad, and he's going to have to carry the scoring load if the Hornets want to keep this within shouting distance of the Thunder.

The books are trying to get cute with this 23.5 line just because Devin Booker played 38 minutes and hit a game-winner last night. But let me tell you, a guy like Book doesn't get tired when he's on a heater like this—he's cleared 20 points in ten straight games and is averaging over 26 in his last five. With Grayson Allen and Jalen Green watching from the sidelines, the Suns have no choice but to ride their superstar for every drop of production he's got. Houston’s defense is respectable, but they don't have anyone who can stop Booker when he gets into that mid-range rhythm. This line is a total overreaction to the schedule, and we’re going to capitalize on it.

Deni Avdija has been a revelation in Portland, stepping into that point-forward role and just dissecting defenses with surgical precision. With Lillard and Scoot Henderson sidelined, the ball is in his hands on nearly every possession, and he's making the right read every single time. He's cleared this 9.5 line in four of his last five games, including back-to-back double-digit assist gems to start the new year. Tonight he gets a Utah Jazz squad that couldn't stop a nosebleed right now, ranking dead last in the league defensively. In a game with a total set at a massive 242.5, the passing lanes are going to be wide open all night for Deni to keep feeding the young Blazers.

I’ve been watching Kawhi lately, and the man is playing like he’s got something to prove to the whole league. He’s in the middle of a serious "purple patch," dropping 40 or more in three of his last seven games, including that monster 55-point night just a week ago. With Bradley Beal out for the year, the Clippers’ offense is basically the Kawhi Leonard show, and he’s eating up all the usage he can handle. Even though the Warriors have a top-three defense, they don't have anyone who can truly match Kawhi's strength in the mid-range now that they're leaning on smaller lineups. In a tight rivalry game at the Intuit Dome, expect "The Claw" to hunt his shot early and often, especially since he’s shooting a ridiculous 96% from the charity stripe this season.

Keyonte George is the engine that makes this Jazz offense go, and he's currently on a scoring tear that the books haven't fully caught up to yet. We're talking about a kid who has dropped 20-plus in ten straight games, and he's not just settling for jumpers—he's attacking the cup and getting to the charity stripe with veteran savvy. Portland's backcourt is young and prone to giving up big nights to aggressive guards, and Keyonte is as aggressive as they come when he smells blood. Even with a slight dip in his last outing, the volume is there, the usage is elite, and he's going to be hunting his shot in what should be a high-scoring track meet in the Pacific Northwest.

Look, James Harden is still one of the best floor generals in the game, but this 8.5 line is just too high for the environment he’s walking into tonight. The Clippers play at the second-slowest pace in the league, and the Warriors are coming in with the NBA's 3rd-ranked defense—that’s a recipe for a low-possession, "muck-it-up" kind of game. Harden has stayed under this assist number in four of his last five outings, averaging only 7.4 dimes in that stretch. Golden State is elite at taking away the primary passing lanes, and with Draymond Green likely roaming the paint, those easy lob opportunities for Zubac aren't going to be there. I see Harden being forced to look for his own shot more than setting up others in this half-court grind.