Daily archive

2026-01-05

The stored Gary board for Mon, Jan 5. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

NBA

New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons

TALE OF THE TAPE Detroit Pistons New York Knicks Record 26-9 ← 23-12 Rest Situation B2B (0) 2 Days ← Off Rating 116.0 120.6 ← Def Rating 109.7 ← 114.1 3PT Made/Game 8.9 14.3 ← Key Injuries Duren, Harris Hart, Shamet Gary's Take The Detroit Pistons are the feel-good story of the 2025-26 season, sitting atop the East with a stellar 12-3 home record. However, the NBA schedule makers are undefeated, and this is a brutal situational spot for the home team. Detroit is playing on the second night of a back-to-back after a physical win against Cleveland, while the Knicks arrive with two full days of rest and desperation to snap a three-game skid. Beyond the rest disadvantage, Detroit faces a massive math problem. The Knicks are trading 3s for 2s at an elite rate, averaging nearly 5.5 more made three-pointers per game than the Pistons. That creates a built-in ~16 point math edge that Detroit has to overcome with efficiency and defense. With defensive anchor Jalen Duren and forward Tobias Harris out, the Pistons lack the interior depth to punish New York's smaller lineups or protect the rim against Jalen Brunson's drives. While New York's road record (7-8) is concerning, their elite offensive rating (120.6) is sustainable, whereas Detroit's defensive intensity is likely to wane on tired legs. I'm backing the rested offense with the mathematical shooting edge to outpace the fatigued home team. Take the Knicks to win outright.

New York Knicks ML-135

CONF

78%

NBA

Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers

TALE OF THE TAPE Portland Utah Record 16-20 ← 12-22 Off Rating 113.1 ← 114.5 Def Rating 115.3 ← 119.9 Net Rating -2.2 ← -5.4 Key Injuries Simons/Grant (OUT) Kessler (OUT) Gary's Take This is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions. The Portland Trail Blazers have found a bizarre but effective rhythm despite their injuries, winning 4 of their last 5 games by leaning into a massive lineup with Deni Avdija running point and Donovan Clingan anchoring the paint. Avdija is averaging near a triple-double in his last five games, and Utah's disorganized defense (ranked 29th in the league without Walker Kessler) is the perfect opponent for him to dissect. The mismatch in the paint is the deciding factor here. With Walker Kessler out for the season and Jusuf Nurkic banged up, the Jazz are forced to play undersized centers like Kyle Filipowski or John Collins. Portland's Donovan Clingan just dropped 24 points and 12 rebounds in his last outing and should feast on Utah's lack of rim protection. Utah is allowing 123+ points per game during their current losing streak, and they simply don't have the personnel to stop a confident Blazers team at home. While Lauri Markkanen can keep Utah competitive in spurts, the Jazz are 4-11 on the road and have lost their last three games by an average of 12 points. Portland is playing with "house money" momentum, and I expect them to cover this number comfortably against a Jazz team that looks ready for the lottery.

Portland Trail Blazers -6.5-110

CONF

76%

NCAAB

USC Trojans @ Michigan State Spartans

TALE OF THE TAPE Michigan State USC Record 12-2 = 12-2 Off Rating 115.7 → 115.8 Def Rating 92.9 ← 100.5 Net Rating +22.8 ← +15.3 Key Injuries Glenn (OUT) Rice (OUT) Gary's Take I have seen this movie a hundred times in my thirty years of betting the Big Ten. Tom Izzo after a loss, returning to the Breslin Center, is essentially a buzzsaw. The Spartans are coming off a frustrating two-point defeat at Nebraska where their offense completely stalled, and you can bet every practice since has been a physical reminder of what Spartan basketball is supposed to look like. They are facing a USC team that is currently walking into a woodchipper. The Trojans were just embarrassed by 30 points in Ann Arbor, and they are clearly struggling to find an identity on the road without their star playmaker Rodney Rice. The biggest battleground tonight is on the glass, and it is a total mismatch. Michigan State ranks in the top 5 nationally in rebound margin, while USC just got bullied in the paint by Michigan. Jaxon Kohler, who has blossomed into a Baby Jokic in the post, should have a field day against a USC frontcourt that lacks the discipline to stay out of foul trouble. When Kohler establishes that interior dominance, it forces the defense to collapse, which is exactly when Jeremy Fears Jr. starts carving teams up with his elite vision. Fears ranks second in the nation in assists for a reason, and he will exploit USC's hybrid zone all night long. USC’s only real path to keeping this close is their ability to draw fouls, as they lead the nation in free throw rate. However, Izzo teams are notoriously disciplined at home, and the Breslin Center whistle rarely favors the visitor in a track meet. Without Rodney Rice to settle the offense, Chad Baker-Mazara is being asked to do too much, and his turnover rate has spiked as a result. Michigan State’s physical man-to-man defense is designed to neutralize isolation scorers, and I expect Coen Carr to be glued to Baker-Mazara from the jump. This spread is double digits for a reason. You have a top-10 Michigan State team that is angry, healthy, and dominant at home against a USC team that is missing its engine and just showed the world they aren't ready for the physicality of Big Ten road life. The Trojans' 12-2 record is a mirage built on a soft non-conference schedule, and the reality check that started in Ann Arbor continues tonight in East Lansing. Lay the points and watch the Spartans pull away in the second half. Michigan State Spartans -10.5 -110.

Michigan State Spartans -10.5-110

CONF

85%

NCAAB

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Ohio State Buckeyes

TALE OF THE TAPE Ohio State Nebraska Record 10-3 14-0 → Off Rating 123.6 ← 118.4 eFG% 57.9% ← 55.6% FT Rate 0.414 ← 0.307 Points Allowed ~75.0 65.5 → Key Injuries None Essegian (OUT) Gary's Take There is a massive neon sign flashing over this game, and it is the point spread. When an unranked 10-3 team is favored over a 14-0 team ranked #13 in the country, you don't ask questions—you listen to what the market is telling you. Nebraska is having a magical, historic season, but they are walking into a buzzsaw in Columbus. The Cornhuskers survived a 'rock fight' against Michigan State in their last game, but they shot a dismal 31.6% from the floor. While their defense is legitimately elite, you cannot expect to beat this Ohio State offense on the road if you go through those types of scoring droughts. Bruce Thornton is the best player on the floor tonight. He is an All-American caliber guard who controls the tempo and, more importantly, knows how to draw contact. Look at the free-throw data: Ohio State has a massive edge in FT Rate (0.414) and they knock them down at a 79% clip. In a tight Big Ten battle at the Schottenstein Center, the Buckeyes are going to live at the charity stripe. Nebraska relies heavily on the three-ball (10.5 makes per game), which introduces a high level of variance. If those shots aren't falling early in a hostile environment, they don't have the interior efficiency to match Ohio State's 62% shooting inside the arc. Fred Hoiberg has done a masterful job building this Nebraska program, and Rienk Mast is a unique matchup problem, but the Buckeyes are desperate for a signature Quad 1 win to solidify their tournament resume. They've played elite teams like UNC and Illinois down to the wire and finally broke through with a gritty road comeback at Rutgers. That momentum, combined with the home whistle and Thornton's leadership, is the recipe for Nebraska's first blemish of the season. Lay the small number with the Buckeyes.

Ohio State Buckeyes -2.5-118

CONF

82%

NCAAB

Oregon Ducks @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights

TALE OF THE TAPE Rutgers Oregon Record 7-7 → 8-6 Off Rating 104.9 → 112.9 Def Rating 179th → Top 100 eFG% 46.0% → 51.5% Key Injuries None Shelstad (Q) Gary's Take The Oregon Ducks are finding their identity at the perfect time, and it starts with Nate Bittle. The 7-foot center is a massive matchup nightmare for a Rutgers frontcourt that has struggled to protect the rim all season. Bittle’s ability to score inside and stretch the floor with his pick-and-pop game will pull Rutgers' Emmanuel Ogbole away from the basket, opening up driving lanes for Takai Simpkins. Even if star guard Jackson Shelstad is limited or out with his hand injury, the Ducks proved against Maryland that they can win a gritty road game by leaning on their size and defensive length. Rutgers is in a full-blown offensive crisis right now. Ranking 328th in adjusted offensive efficiency is a death sentence in the Big Ten, especially when you're shooting a dismal 40.4% from the field as a team. While Tariq Francis has the potential to get hot, he’s often forced into high-volume, low-efficiency shots because the Scarlet Knights lack secondary playmakers. Oregon’s defense just held Maryland to 54 points on their own floor, and I expect Dana Altman to utilize his matchup zone to confuse a Rutgers squad that is still trying to find its footing after losing two NBA lottery picks. The environment at Jersey Mike’s Arena is always a factor, but the "RAC magic" has been missing during this 0-3 conference start. Rutgers has already dropped two home games to Ohio State and Purdue, and the desperation of an 0-4 start can lead to tight shooting and early frustration if Oregon jumps out to a lead. Oregon’s dominance on the offensive glass (13.6 per game) will provide the second-chance points necessary to cover this mid-single-digit spread. Ultimately, this comes down to efficiency and personnel. Oregon is the more polished team on both ends of the floor. While the cross-country travel is a minor concern, the Ducks have had two days to recover in the Eastern time zone since their win in College Park. Expect Nate Bittle and Kwame Evans Jr. to control the paint and stifle a Rutgers offense that simply doesn't have enough weapons to keep pace. Lay the points with the Ducks. Oregon Ducks -5.5 -118.

Oregon Ducks -5.5-118

CONF

78%

Player props

NBA · New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons

OG Anunoby

Listen, with Josh Hart sidelined for his sixth straight game, OG Anunoby isn't just a defensive stopper anymore; he's the Knicks' primary glass-cleaner on the wing. Hart leaves a massive 9-rebound-per-game hole in the rotation, and OG has been the one filling the void, averaging over 8 boards in his last five outings.

OVER 5.5 Rebounds-131

· L5 rebounds: 6, 10, 5, 11, 10
· L5 avg: 8.4 rebounds per game
· Season avg: 5.6 RPG

NBA · Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Listen, when a kid goes back to his hometown, he doesn't just play—he puts on a show. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is a Toronto native, and he's walking into that arena tonight with the greenest light of his career.

OVER 20.5 Points-105

· L5 points: 31, 23, 11, 30, 25
· Season avg: 20.7 PPG
· Last game vs TOR: 31 points

NBA · Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics

Jaylen Brown

Listen, when Jayson Tatum sits, Jaylen Brown doesn't just step up—he takes over the entire building. We're talking about a guy who's already fourth in the league in scoring, but that average jumps to nearly 33 points a night when he's flying solo.

OVER 30.5 Points-105

· Season avg: 30.1 PPG
· Avg without Tatum: 32.8 PPG
· Last game: 50 points vs Clippers

NBA · Charlotte Hornets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Chet Holmgren

Listen, Chet Holmgren isn't just playing defense; he's patrolling the paint like he owns the deed to the arena. The kid is the frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year for a reason, and his recent stretch is nothing short of historic.

OVER 1.5 Blocks-138

· L5 blocks: 3, 4, 6, 2, 4
· L5 average: 3.8 blocks per game
· Season average: 1.8 BPG

NBA · Phoenix Suns @ Houston Rockets

Tari Eason

Listen, when a guy like Alperen Sengun goes down, those 10-12 rebounds a night don't just vanish into thin air—somebody's gotta go get 'em. Tari Eason is that guy.

OVER 6.5 Rebounds-126

· L3 rebounds: 10, 9, 8
· L5 avg: 7.2 RPG vs line 6.5
· Season avg: 5.6 RPG

NBA · Denver Nuggets @ Philadelphia 76ers

Tyrese Maxey

I’m looking at Tyrese Maxey tonight and I see a man who is simply playing at a different speed than everyone else. He’s the engine of this Sixers team, leading the league in minutes, and he’s currently on a scoring tear with three straight games of 34 or more points.

OVER 28.5 Points-109

· Season avg: 31.1 PPG
· L5 points: 36, 34, 34, 28, 27
· Minutes: Leads NBA with 39.8 MPG

NBA · Denver Nuggets @ Philadelphia 76ers

Peyton Watson

When the big dog goes down, somebody has to eat, and Peyton Watson has been feasting in the vacuum left by Nikola Jokic. Over his last three games, Watson has looked like a completely different player, dropping 24, 21, and 23 points as the Nuggets search for scoring punch.

OVER 15.5 Points-117

· L5 points: 23, 21, 24, 11, 15
· Season avg: 11.8 PPG
· Usage: 3 straight games with 20+ points since Jokic injury

NBA · New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons

Karl-Anthony Towns

Karl-Anthony Towns is playing some of the most inspired basketball of his career right now, and he's coming off a historic milestone that has him locked in. Detroit is a dream matchup for KAT tonight because they're forced to start Isaiah Stewart at center with Jalen Duren out.

OVER 11.5 Rebounds+104

· L5 rebounds: 14, 7, 12, 15, 14
· L5 avg: 12.4 RPG
· Season avg: 11.8 RPG

NBA · Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors

Sandro Mamukelashvili

The books haven't caught up to the 'Mamu' effect yet, and we're going to make them pay for it. With Jakob Poeltl out for the seventh straight game, Sandro Mamukelashvili has stepped into a massive role as a point-center, and he's feasting on the glass.

OVER 5.5 Rebounds-138

· L5 rebounds: 12, 4, 4, 6, 11
· Last game vs ATL: 12 rebounds
· Season avg: 5.0 RPG

NBA · Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics

Derrick White

With Tatum out of the picture, Derrick White is the guy who keeps the engine purring for this Celtics offense. He's been playing some of the most aggressive basketball of his career lately, putting up 21 points a night over his last five outings.

OVER 18.5 Points-107

· L5 pts: 29, 16, 27, 12, 21
· L5 avg: 21.0 PPG
· Season avg: 18.7 PPG

NBA · Charlotte Hornets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Miles Bridges

When the lights get bright and the roster gets thin, Charles Lee turns to his veteran workhorse, Miles Bridges. We've got a situation here where Charlotte's leading rookie scorer, Kon Knueppel, is hobbled with a hip issue, and that leaves a massive 19-point vacuum in the offense.

OVER 17.5 Points-103

· Season average: 20.2 PPG
· Line: 17.5
· Context: Star rookie Kon Knueppel (19.4 PPG) is Questionable

NBA · Phoenix Suns @ Houston Rockets

Devin Booker

The books are trying to get cute with this 23.5 line just because Devin Booker played 38 minutes and hit a game-winner last night. But let me tell you, a guy like Book doesn't get tired when he's on a heater like this—he's cleared 20 points in ten straight games and is averaging over 26 in his last five.

OVER 23.5 Points-120

· L5 pts: 24, 33, 32, 22, 20
· L5 avg: 26.2 PPG vs line 23.5
· Season avg: 25.7 PPG

NBA · Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers

Deni Avdija

Deni Avdija has been a revelation in Portland, stepping into that point-forward role and just dissecting defenses with surgical precision. With Lillard and Scoot Henderson sidelined, the ball is in his hands on nearly every possession, and he's making the right read every single time.

OVER 9.5 Assists-104

· L5 assists: 10, 11, 7, 11, 10
· Season avg: 7.1 APG
· Last 2 games: 10 and 11 assists

NBA · Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers

Kawhi Leonard

I’ve been watching Kawhi lately, and the man is playing like he’s got something to prove to the whole league. He’s in the middle of a serious "purple patch," dropping 40 or more in three of his last seven games, including that monster 55-point night just a week ago.

OVER 28.5 Points-112

· L5 PPG: 36.6
· Season PPG: 28.3
· Recent high: 55 pts on 12/28

NBA · Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers

Keyonte George

Keyonte George is the engine that makes this Jazz offense go, and he's currently on a scoring tear that the books haven't fully caught up to yet. We're talking about a kid who has dropped 20-plus in ten straight games, and he's not just settling for jumpers—he's attacking the cup and getting to the charity stripe with veteran savvy. Portland's backcourt is young and prone to giving up big nights to aggressive guards, and Keyonte is as aggressive as they come when he smells blood. Even with a slight dip in his last outing, the volume is there, the usage is elite, and he's going to be hunting his shot in what should be a high-scoring track meet in the Pacific Northwest.

OVER 24.5 Points-115

· L5 points: 22, 37, 28, 31, 24
· Season avg: 24.6 PPG
· 10-game streak of 20+ points

NBA · Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers

James Harden

Look, James Harden is still one of the best floor generals in the game, but this 8.5 line is just too high for the environment he’s walking into tonight. The Clippers play at the second-slowest pace in the league, and the Warriors are coming in with the NBA's 3rd-ranked defense—that’s a recipe for a low-possession, "muck-it-up" kind of game.

UNDER 8.5 Assists-142

· L5 Assists: 12, 7, 5, 7, 6
· L5 Avg: 7.4
· Season Avg: 8.0

Graded results

Games

L
New York Knicks ML -135
NBA · 90-121
W
Portland Trail Blazers -6.5 -110
NBA · 117-137
W
Michigan State Spartans -10.5 -110
NCAAB · 51-80
L
Ohio State Buckeyes -2.5 -118
NCAAB · 72-69
L
Oregon Ducks -5.5 -118
NCAAB · 85-88

Props

L
Chet Holmgren · over
Charlotte Hornets @ Oklahoma City Thunder · Actual 0
L
Deni Avdija · over
Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers · Actual 9
L
Derrick White · over
Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics · Actual 10
W
Devin Booker · over
Phoenix Suns @ Houston Rockets · Actual 27
W
James Harden · under
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers · Actual 0
L
Jaylen Brown · over
Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics · Actual 14
L
Karl-Anthony Towns · over
New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons · Actual 1
L
Kawhi Leonard · over
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers · Actual 24
L
Keyonte George · over
Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers · Actual 15
L
Miles Bridges · over
Charlotte Hornets @ Oklahoma City Thunder · Actual 10
L
Nickeil Alexander-Walker · over
Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors · Actual 14
L
OG Anunoby · over
New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons · Actual 2
W
Peyton Watson · over
Denver Nuggets @ Philadelphia 76ers · Actual 24
W
Sandro Mamukelashvili · over
Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors · Actual 6
W
Tari Eason · over
Phoenix Suns @ Houston Rockets · Actual 8
L
Tyrese Maxey · over
Denver Nuggets @ Philadelphia 76ers · Actual 28