Sports picks for Sunday, January 4, 2026

Cade is the heart and soul of this Pistons squad, and with Jalen Duren and Tobias Harris both sidelined, he's basically the entire circulatory system too. We saw him explode for 31 points on New Year's Day when those two were out, and I expect more of the same tonight. He's hunting a top-10 scoring spot in the league and there simply isn't anyone else on this roster who can demand the ball like he does. Against a Cavs team that might be missing Jarrett Allen's rim protection, Cade is going to have a field day getting to his spots. This isn't just a game; it's a statement for the coach Bickerstaff against his old team, and Cade is the guy who's going to deliver it.

I've been watching Anthony Black closely, and the kid is in the middle of a massive breakout that the books haven't fully adjusted to yet. With Franz Wagner out of the lineup, Black has stepped into a primary scoring role and he's absolutely thriving, averaging over 24 points a night in his last five outings. He’s playing with a level of aggression we didn't see early in the year, evidenced by that 38-point explosion against the Nuggets. The Pacers are a dream matchup for a guy like him; they play fast, they don't defend the perimeter well, and they’re missing their best wing defenders. I expect Black to be the focal point of the Magic's attack alongside Banchero, and 19.5 is a gift considering his recent volume.

With Nikola Jokic sidelined for the next month, Peyton Watson has suddenly become the Nuggets' secondary scoring threat. In the two games since the MVP went down, Watson hasn't just filled a gap—he's taken over, averaging 22.5 points on nearly 20 shots per game. Coach Adelman is leaning on him for 38 minutes a night, and with Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun likely on restrictions, Watson is the engine. Facing a Brooklyn defense that's bottom-tier, Watson should cruise past this 14.5 line by the third quarter.

I'm telling you, Ryan Rollins is the real deal and the books haven't caught up yet. Since the Bucks moved on from Lillard, this kid has grabbed the steering wheel and he's not letting go. He just hung 29 on Charlotte with a shooting display that looked like a video game, and now he gets a Sacramento defense that's basically a revolving door right now. With the Kings giving up over 122 points a night and Rollins playing with this much confidence, 15.5 is a gift. He's averaging over 17 on the season and Doc Rivers is giving him all the minutes he can handle. Expect him to carve up the Kings' perimeter defense all night long.

I see Jaren Jackson Jr. absolutely feasting on a Lakers frontcourt that's missing its primary defensive anchors tonight. With Memphis missing both Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke, JJJ is the undisputed alpha in the paint, and he's been playing like it, clearing this 20.5 line in four of his last five games. He just dropped 25 on this same Lakers squad two days ago, and with the Grizzlies' roster looking like a G-League squad right now, the volume is guaranteed. Expect him to be aggressive from the jump, hunting his shot and taking advantage of the Lakers' focus on the perimeter stars. This isn't just a stat play; it's a necessity for a Memphis team trying to stay afloat in Los Angeles.

Paolo Banchero smells blood whenever he sees the Indiana Pacers' jersey across the court. He’s historically dominated this franchise, including a 50-point masterpiece last season and a 29-point performance just four days ago where he hit the game-winner. Indiana is currently missing Myles Turner and Isaiah Jackson, which means their interior defense is virtually non-existent. Paolo is going to live at the rim and the free-throw line tonight. With the Magic fighting to keep their spot in the Eastern Conference standings and Indiana on an 11-game skid, Banchero is going to be the hammer that keeps the Pacers down. He’s cleared this line in his last two games and I don't see anyone on this depleted Indiana roster who can stop him.

Evan Mobley has been a monster on the glass lately, and tonight the stars have aligned for him to dominate. Detroit is coming in without their glass-eater Jalen Duren, leaving a massive void in the paint that Mobley is perfectly suited to exploit. He's already been averaging double-digit boards over his last 20 games, and that's often while fighting his own teammate Jarrett Allen for them. If Allen sits out with his current illness, Mobley becomes the only show in town for Cleveland's interior defense. Even if Allen plays, the Pistons' backup frontcourt simply doesn't have the length or the positioning to keep a guy like Mobley from cleaning up the misses. At even money, this is the kind of value you don't walk away from.

This is the one Michael Porter Jr. has had circled since July. After being shipped out of Denver to clear cap space, MPJ has reinvented himself in Brooklyn as a high-volume alpha, and tonight he gets to remind the Nuggets exactly what they're missing. He's coming off an illness, but the motivation of a first-ever meeting with his former team will provide all the adrenaline he needs. Denver's perimeter defense is vulnerable without their usual rotations, and Porter is shooting the lights out, averaging nearly five triples a game over his last five. Expect a statement game from the Nets' new star.

I've been watching Bam closely, and he's completely shifted his game to accommodate the Heat's new weapons. With Norman Powell and Andrew Wiggins taking over the scoring load, Bam has embraced being the defensive anchor and high-post facilitator. He hasn't touched 18 points in any of his last five games, and he's not exactly hunting his shot right now, averaging just 12.6 points in that span. Tonight he’s got his hands full on the other end trying to keep Zion Williamson out of the paint, which usually saps his energy for offensive production. Even if Powell sits, Bam’s recent passive approach on offense makes this 17.5 line look like a mountain he isn't interested in climbing.

Listen, I’ve seen Rudy Gobert feast on small frontcourts for a decade, and Washington is basically a buffet for him right now. The Wizards are dead last in the league at keeping teams off the glass, and while Rudy’s coming off a game in Miami yesterday, his size advantage over Alex Sarr and Jonas Valančiūnas is just too much to ignore. Even with heavy legs, Rudy is going to be parked under the rim all night cleaning up misses. Washington gives up nearly 50 rebounds a game to opponents—if Rudy doesn't grab 13 of those, he's not doing his job. I expect him to dominate the paint early and often against a team that has no interest in boxing out.

With Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams both in the trainer's room, Chet is the only man left to do the dirty work in the paint for OKC. He's been a glass-cleaning machine lately, grabbing double-digit boards in four of his last five games, including a 15-rebound masterclass just two nights ago. Mark Williams is a physical body for Phoenix, but Chet’s length and the sheer lack of other rebounding options for the Thunder make this 9.5 line look like a gift at plus money. I see him hovering around the rim all night, cleaning up misses while the Thunder play their usual high-pace game. When the usage vacuum opens up this wide, you take the over and don't look back.

When Domantas Sabonis is out, the Kings' offense becomes the Russell Westbrook show, and that means he's the one pulling all the strings. Russ is averaging 7 assists on the season, and with the Kings' primary hub in Sabonis sidelined, the ball is going to be in his hands even more. He's been taking the rookie Maxime Raynaud under his wing, and I expect him to feed the big man and the shooters early and often. The Bucks' defense has been leaky, and Westbrook knows exactly how to exploit those gaps in transition. He might not be the triple-double machine of five years ago, but in this specific environment, he's the engine that's going to keep Sacramento moving.

Jake LaRavia is the definition of a 'hidden edge' tonight, stepping into a starting role and playing massive minutes for the shorthanded Lakers. He's facing his former team, and if the last game was any indication—where he exploded for 21 points in 37 minutes—he's playing with a massive chip on his shoulder. Coach JJ Redick has been leaning on him for 37+ minutes lately, and with that kind of floor time alongside gravity-magnets like Luka and LeBron, he's going to get wide-open looks all night. He's not just a spot-up shooter; he's crashing the glass and cutting hard, making him a nightmare for a tired and depleted Grizzlies defense. 11.5 is a gift for a guy playing nearly 40 minutes.

Jordan Poole is the ultimate 'green light' player, and with Dejounte Murray still out, that light is blindingly bright. He’s cleared this 22.5 PRA line in four of his last five games, and when he’s on, he’s not just scoring—he’s dishing out 6 assists like we saw against Portland and Atlanta. The Pelicans are playing at a breakneck pace and their defense is a sieve, which actually helps Poole because it keeps the game fast and the possessions high. Miami is a tough out, but they’re on the second night of a back-to-back and their perimeter defense is missing key pieces like Jaime Jaquez Jr. I expect Poole to be aggressive from the jump, and even a mediocre shooting night should see him cruise past this total through sheer volume.

Naz Reid is playing like a man who wants a starting spot, and honestly, he might deserve one after that 29-point clinic he put on in Miami yesterday. When the Timberwolves are on the second half of a back-to-back, Chris Finch leans heavily on his bench energy, and Naz is the spark plug of that unit. He’s facing a Wizards defense that ranks 29th in the league and has zero answers for a big man who can stretch the floor and put it on the deck. With Terrence Shannon Jr. out, there’s even more room for Naz to operate in the second unit. He’s in a 'scorching' phase right now, and I’m riding the hot hand against a team that treats defense like an optional suggestion.

Collin Gillespie has quietly become the heartbeat of this Suns rotation with Jalen Green and Grayson Allen sidelined. He's not just a fill-in; he's a flamethrower who has cleared this 14.5 line in five straight games, including a 25-point explosion against Washington. The Thunder have an elite defense, but they're going to be so focused on trapping Devin Booker that Gillespie will continue to find wide-open looks from the perimeter. He's playing heavy minutes and shooting with ultimate confidence right now. In a game where Phoenix needs scoring punch to keep up with OKC, Gillespie is the guy who steps up.

I’m putting my money on the best player on the field today, and it’s not even close. Bijan Robinson is chasing history, needing just 115 scrimmage yards to pass LaDainian Tomlinson for the fifth-most in a single season. He’s been an absolute wrecking ball lately, averaging over 170 scrimmage yards over his last five games and coming off a massive 229-yard performance. With the roof closed in Atlanta and Kirk Cousins potentially limited by illness, the Falcons are going to lean on Bijan for everything. Whether it’s explosive runs or check-downs in the flat, he’s going to be the engine of this offense. The Saints' defense is middle-of-the-pack, and they simply don't have the speed to contain him for four quarters. Expect a heavy dose of #7 as he cements his legacy in the season finale.

If you’ve watched the Falcons lately, you know Bijan is in a different gear right now. He’s cleared this 82.5 rushing line in four of his last five games, including a career-high 195 yards just last week. The Saints' run defense has been a sieve all season, ranking 23rd in the league, and they’re going to have their hands full with a guy who can take it to the house on any given play. Atlanta wants to finish the season strong at home, and that starts with establishing the run. With the milestones he's chasing, the coaching staff is going to give him every opportunity to rack up yards. I see him hitting this line by the third quarter as he carves up a tired New Orleans front seven. It's a classic Gary play: follow the volume and the talent.

The books are sleeping on Audric Estime, and that’s where we find our edge. Estime has officially taken over as the bell-cow for the Saints, logging a massive 80% snap share in his last outing. He turned that opportunity into 94 yards on the ground, proving he can handle the heavy lifting of a lead back. He’s a physical, bruising runner who fits perfectly into the Saints' current game plan of supporting their young quarterback with a strong ground game. Against an Atlanta defense that can be vulnerable to power running, 49 yards is a very low bar for a guy expected to see 15+ carries. I love the way he’s finishing runs right now, and in a dome environment, his speed and power will be on full display. This is a volume play, plain and simple.

Red zone usage: 16 TDs in 16 games (1.00/g) | Goal-line role: Primary finisher for the league's most efficient rushing attack. Derrick Henry remains the gold standard for touchdown equity, averaging exactly one score per game this season. In a rivalry matchup where Baltimore is a slight road favorite, the game script favors a heavy dose of Henry to wear down the Steelers' front. With Rashod Bateman out, the Ravens are even more likely to lean on their ground game in the red zone. Key factors: • Elite 1.00 TD per game average over a full 16-game sample. • Baltimore is a -3.5 favorite, suggesting a positive game script for the run game. • Henry has recorded 16 rushing touchdowns this season, showing zero regression in his goal-line efficiency. Risk: Pittsburgh's defense historically plays Baltimore tough in low-scoring environments. Confidence: 95% | TD equity: high

Red zone usage: 20 TDs in 16 games (1.25/g) | Goal-line role: Workhorse back with heavy volume in both phases. Taylor is the most productive touchdown scorer on this slate, averaging a staggering 1.25 touchdowns per game. Despite the Colts being heavy underdogs, Taylor's role is insulated by his involvement in the passing game (2 receiving TDs) and the absence of Anthony Richardson, which forces the offense to flow entirely through him. The Texans are missing key defensive pieces like Jamal Hill and Kamari Lassiter, softening the matchup. Key factors: • Leads all verified players with 20 total touchdowns this season. • High usage floor regardless of game script due to 18 rushing and 2 receiving scores. • Houston's defense is missing multiple starters in the secondary and linebacker corps. Risk: If Houston gets out to a massive lead, Indy may be forced to abandon the traditional run game. Confidence: 90% | TD equity: high

Red zone usage: 7 TDs in 15 games (0.47/g) | Goal-line role: Primary target for Joe Burrow in high-leverage situations. With Joe Burrow back under center and the Bengals listed as massive 9.5-point favorites, the scoring environment is ideal for Chase. Cleveland's defense is missing Myles Garrett (Questionable) and several linebackers, which should give Burrow ample time to find his WR1. Chase remains the focal point of the passing attack in a game with a healthy 45.5 total. Key factors: • Bengals are big home favorites, implying a high team total. • Chase has 7 receiving touchdowns and remains the top look in the red zone. • Cleveland is missing key defensive starters, including David Njoku on the other side, which may lead to more offensive possessions for Cincinnati. Risk: Tee Higgins (10 TDs) could vulture the primary scoring opportunities. Confidence: 85% | TD equity: high

Red zone usage: 10 TDs in 15 games (0.67/g) | Goal-line role: High-volume target and occasional jet-sweep threat. The Rams are the biggest favorites on the slate (-14), and Nacua is their most consistent scoring threat with 10 touchdowns in 15 games. Arizona is decimated by injuries, missing Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr., which should lead to short fields for the Rams' offense. Nacua's 0.67 TD/game rate makes him a near-lock in this lopsided matchup. Key factors: • Rams have the highest implied team total on the board as 14-point favorites. • Nacua has 9 receiving TDs and 1 rushing TD, showing versatile usage near the paint. • Arizona's defense will struggle to stay off the field without their starting QB to sustain drives. Risk: Kyren Williams (13 TDs) could dominate the goal-line carries in a blowout. Confidence: 88% | TD equity: high

Red zone usage: 11 TDs in 16 games (0.69/g) | Goal-line role: Elite slot separator and Jared Goff's first read. This game features the highest total on the slate (51.5), making it the primary target for multiple touchdowns. St. Brown is the engine of the Lions' passing game, and his 0.69 TD/game rate is elite for a wide receiver. Even with a questionable tag (Knee/Ankle), he is expected to play in a crucial divisional game where Detroit's high-powered offense meets a Chicago team favored by 4.5. Key factors: • Game total of 51.5 suggests a shootout with high TD volume for both sides. • St. Brown has 11 receiving touchdowns this season. • Detroit's indoor-style offense typically thrives in high-scoring environments. Risk: Injury status could lead to slightly reduced snaps if the game gets out of hand. Confidence: 82% | TD equity: high

Odds value: +200 for a player stepping into a lead back role due to injuries. With Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller both out, Estime is the last man standing in the Saints' backfield. He has shown efficiency with 5.4 yards per carry this season and already has a touchdown on limited touches. In a game where the Saints are missing their top WR (Olave) and RB (Kamara), Estime will be the focal point of the ground game. Key factors: • Clear path to 15+ carries with Kamara and Miller sidelined. • Efficient 5.4 YPC suggests he can move the chains and reach the red zone. • Atlanta's defense is missing several secondary pieces, which may allow New Orleans to sustain drives. Risk: New Orleans' offense could stall entirely without its primary stars. Confidence: 70% | Value rating: strong

Odds value: +230 for a mobile QB in a game where his team is a massive favorite. McCarthy has been surprisingly effective as a runner, tallying 4 rushing touchdowns in just 9 games (0.44/g). The Vikings are 12.5-point favorites against a Packers team missing Micah Parsons and Elgton Jenkins. In a low-total game (37.5), McCarthy's ability to scramble for a score near the goal line is a high-value proposition. Key factors: • 0.44 rushing TDs per game is a top-tier rate for a quarterback. • Vikings are heavy favorites, likely leading to multiple red zone trips. • Green Bay's defense is missing its best pass rusher (Parsons), potentially opening lanes for QB scrambles. Risk: Jordan Mason could handle all the goal-line work. Confidence: 65% | Value rating: moderate

Odds value: +240 for a future Hall of Famer who becomes the primary target with the starting QB out. With Patrick Mahomes on IR, the Chiefs will rely on Chris Oladokun. In such scenarios, young or backup QBs almost always lean on their most reliable veteran safety valve. Kelce has 5 TDs this season and remains the team's best red zone target, especially with Xavier Worthy doubtful. Key factors: • Backup QB scenario heavily favors high-percentage targets to the Tight End. • Kelce is the most proven scorer active for the Chiefs today. • Low game total (36.5) favors short-area passing and TE usage. Risk: The Chiefs' offense could be completely dysfunctional without Mahomes. Confidence: 60% | Value rating: strong

Odds value: +210 for a red zone specialist on a team favored by nearly two touchdowns. Jacksonville is a 13.5-point favorite against a Titans team that has multiple defensive starters on IR. While Etienne and Meyers get the headlines, Strange has carved out a role in the red zone. In a game where the Jaguars are expected to score 3-4 touchdowns, Strange is a prime candidate to haul in a short score. Key factors: • Jaguars have a massive 13.5-point spread advantage. • Tennessee is missing L'Jarius Sneed and Amani Hooker in the secondary. • Trevor Lawrence (9 rush TDs) keeps defenses honest, opening lanes for TEs. Risk: Low target volume makes him touchdown-dependent. Confidence: 55% | Value rating: moderate

Odds value: +210 for a player with 6 TDs in 16 games in a high-stakes rivalry. Andrews remains a preferred target for Lamar Jackson in the red zone, especially with Rashod Bateman ruled out. While Derrick Henry handles the bulk of the scoring, Andrews provides the vertical threat inside the 20. He has 5 receiving TDs and 1 rushing TD this year, proving his versatility in scoring situations. Key factors: • Bateman's absence vacates targets in the intermediate and scoring areas. • Andrews has a proven track record of scoring against Pittsburgh. • Baltimore's offense is one of the most productive in the league. Risk: Isaiah Likely (400) could steal TE targets. Confidence: 68% | Value rating: strong

Opening drive equity: Lead back for a 12.5-point favorite. Minnesota is expected to dominate this game from the start. Mason is the primary goal-line hammer for a team that should see the red zone on their opening possession.

Opening drive equity: 13 TDs in 16 games. Etienne is the engine of the Jaguars' offense. Against a Titans team with an interim-level secondary, Jacksonville should march down the field on drive one.

Opening drive equity: League-leading touchdown producer. Baltimore often scripts early runs for Henry to set the tone. He is the most consistent first-quarter scorer in the NFL this season.

I don’t care if the Raiders' secondary has been a sieve all year; you’ve got a third-stringer in Chris Oladokun who looked like a deer in headlights last week, throwing for a measly 66 yards. Now he’s going into a dome against a Maxx Crosby who’s licking his chops because the Chiefs are starting their fifth and sixth-string tackles. Andy Reid is going to shrink this playbook to the size of a postage stamp to keep Oladokun from getting hit, focusing on a heavy run game. Expect a lot of handoffs and short screens that don't go anywhere. This line is a gift from the books who are still pricing this like a competent veteran is under center, but the reality is Oladokun hasn't shown he can even sniff 150 yards.

Kareem Hunt is a man on a mission today, and it’s not just about the win; he’s sitting just 31 yards away from a $25,000 bonus, and you better believe Andy Reid knows it. Even with the QB situation being a disaster, Hunt is the engine of this offense and the designated hammer when they get near the goal line. He’s the veteran presence Reid trusts, and with the Chiefs being 5.5-point favorites, they’ll be leaning on him to milk the clock and punch it in. In a game where points will be at a premium and the passing game is non-existent, Hunt is the safest bet on the board to find paydirt. Expect him to get the rock early and often until he hits his marks.

The narrative is screaming at us here: Travis Kelce needs 57 yards to make history, and Andy Reid has already come out and said he’s playing specifically to get that milestone. When the Chiefs get into the red zone, Oladokun is going to have one read and one read only: number 87. He targeted Kelce 5 times last week even while the offense was sputtering, and in a game with zero playoff stakes, the entire script is going to be about getting Kelce his yards and a touchdown to celebrate. It’s the last game of the year, and they’re going to feed the legend until he crosses that line. At +240, you're getting elite value on a guy who is the only reliable target left on the roster.

Matthew Stafford is playing some of the best football of his career right now, and he's walking into a perfect storm tonight. He's averaged over 320 passing yards over his last five starts, and he's facing a Cardinals secondary that's missing a key piece in safety Jalen Thompson. With the Rams playing in the controlled environment of SoFi Stadium and Stafford chasing that 400-career TD milestone, I expect Sean McVay to let him air it out early and often. This line is set way too low for a guy who has cleared 260 yards in four of his last five games. I see Stafford carving up this defense and hitting the over before the fourth quarter even starts.

When Puka Nacua gets going, he doesn't just beat you; he buries you. He's been on an absolute tear lately, putting up monster numbers like 225, 181, and 167 yards in three of his last four outings. The Cardinals simply don't have the size or the speed in their secondary to match up with him, especially with the extra attention Cooper Kupp demands. Stafford is going to look for his favorite target on those deep crossing routes where Puka excels at picking up yards after the catch. In a game with significant playoff seeding on the line, expect the Rams to feed their best playmaker until the Cardinals prove they can stop him—which they haven't shown they can do all season.

Trey McBride has become the heartbeat of this Arizona passing game, and with Zay Jones sidelined tonight, his target share is going to be through the roof. He's already averaging nearly eight catches a game over his last five, and Jacoby Brissett has shown a clear preference for leaning on his big tight end as a security blanket. The Rams' defense has historically struggled to keep McBride in check, and I expect him to be the focal point of the game plan as the Cardinals try to keep pace with a high-powered Rams offense. Whether it's quick hitches or seam routes, McBride is going to see double-digit targets tonight. Six and a half catches feels like a floor for a guy with this kind of volume.

Look, when the mercury drops and the division is on the line, you feed the King. Derrick Henry isn't just running for a win tonight; he's running for history, needing only 31 yards to hit that 1,500-yard mark and tie a legend like LaDainian Tomlinson. He absolutely shredded this Steelers front for 162 yards earlier this season, and with the weather turning into a classic AFC North snow globe, the Ravens are going to lean on him until the clock hits zero. Pittsburgh knows it's coming, but at 39 degrees and falling, nobody wants to tackle a 250-pound locomotive in the fourth quarter. I expect Baltimore to control the trenches and let Henry carry them right into the postseason.

With Rashod Bateman ruled out, the Ravens' passing attack becomes the 'Zay Flowers Show' by default. Flowers has already been the high-volume engine of this aerial game, averaging nearly five catches over his last five outings, and that was with a full complement of weapons. Now, Lamar Jackson returns to a depleted room and will be looking for his most reliable playmaker on every high-leverage third down. The Steelers' secondary is tough, but they'll be forced to respect the run, leaving Flowers with plenty of room to work those short and intermediate routes. This line is a gift considering he's the only established vertical threat left on the field for Baltimore tonight.

If the Ravens get inside the five-yard line tonight, there isn't a soul in the stadium who doesn't know who's getting the ball. Henry has been a touchdown machine lately, finding paydirt seven times in his last five games, including a massive four-TD performance against Green Bay. He’s chasing Marcus Allen on the all-time list, and in a winner-take-all game, John Harbaugh isn't going to get cute in the red zone. With the field likely slick and the temperature dropping, the power run game is Baltimore's best friend. Bet on the King to find the end zone at least once as he carries this team toward the AFC North crown.

I've seen this movie before, and Tanner McKee knows his lines. Last year in this exact Week 18 spot, McKee stepped in and carved up a divisional opponent for 269 yards and two scores. The Eagles' coaching staff trusts him to run the full operation, and even with the big names resting, he's got plenty of weapons in Jahan Dotson and Grant Calcaterra who are hungry to prove they belong. Washington's defense has been a sieve all year, and with nothing left to play for, they aren't going to suddenly find a pass rush. McKee is a poised, rhythm thrower who will take the easy completions and move the chains all afternoon. Expect him to comfortably clear this mark as he auditions for a bigger role in 2026.

When a rookie finds the end zone four times in three weeks, you don't bet against the hot hand. Croskey-Merritt has become the heartbeat of this Washington offense late in the season, and with 39-year-old Josh Johnson under center, the Commanders are going to keep the ball on the ground. He’s coming off a dominant 105-yard, two-touchdown performance against Dallas where he showed elite vision and breakaway speed. The Eagles are resting their defensive anchors, which means the rookie will be running against second-stringers in the red zone. He’s chasing franchise history and the coaching staff is clearly feeding him the rock. I expect him to punch one in early to keep Washington competitive in the cold Philly air.

With Saquon Barkley taking the day off to prep for the playoffs, the backfield belongs to Tank Bigsby. The Eagles are touchdown favorites for a reason—their offensive line, even with some rotations, is built to bully people. Bigsby is a physical, downhill runner who excels in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Tanner McKee is going to lead long, methodical drives, and when they get inside the five-yard line, they aren't going to get cute; they're going to hand it to the Tank. Washington's defense is missing their top tackle and has likely checked out on a 4-12 season. Bigsby has been waiting for this kind of volume all year, and he's going to make the most of it by finding the paint.

Look, with De'Von Achane on the shelf, Jaylen Wright isn't just a backup anymore—he's the focal point of this entire Miami offense. We saw what happened in Week 14 when he got the start; the kid handled 24 carries and gashed the Jets for over a hundred yards. Tonight, Mike McDaniel is starting a rookie QB in sub-freezing temperatures, which means the game plan is going to be as conservative as a Foxborough winter. They have to run the ball to keep Quinn Ewers from getting eaten alive by that New England pass rush. Wright has that explosive 'home run' speed, and even if the Dolphins are trailing, he's going to get the volume early and often to keep the chains moving. I expect him to blow past this 54.5 line before the fourth quarter even starts.

Welcome to the NFL, kid. Quinn Ewers is walking into a buzzsaw tonight, facing an elite Patriots defense in a stadium where the temperature is hovering around 27 degrees. Not only is he a rookie making just his third start, but he's doing it without his safety blanket in Jaylen Waddle and his most explosive playmaker in Achane. The Patriots are fighting for the number one seed and they're going to throw every exotic look in the book at him. Miami's best chance to stay competitive is to keep the ball on the ground and out of harm's way, which severely caps Ewers' ceiling. He's already averaged just 161 yards over his first three appearances, and in this frozen environment against a top-5 defense, I don't see him finding any rhythm. This has 'long afternoon' written all over it for the Dolphins' passing game.

The books are giving us a gift with this 33.5 line on Rhamondre Stevenson. I know the Patriots have the shiny new toy in TreVeyon Henderson, but Stevenson is still the hammer they use to close out games. New England is a massive 13.5-point favorite tonight, and in a game that's expected to be a blowout in freezing weather, the second half is going to be a heavy dose of the run game. Rhamondre has cleared this line in four of his last five games, consistently hovering around that 40-to-50 yard mark even in tighter contests. Once the Patriots get up by two scores, they aren't going to risk Drake Maye's health; they're going to hand it to Stevenson and let him milk the clock. This is a classic game-script play where the volume alone should carry us over the finish line.

Listen, Caleb isn't just playing for a win today; he's playing for the history books. He needs 109 yards to break the Bears' single-season record and 270 to hit that magical 4,000-yard mark—something no Chicago QB has ever done. He’s been on an absolute tear lately, playing mistake-free football with zero picks in his last four starts. Now he gets a Lions defense that’s missing their best pass rusher in Alim McNeill and their defensive leader Alex Anzalone. I see Ben Johnson letting his young star hunt those milestones early and often against a Detroit secondary that’s been giving up points in bunches. The kid is locked in, and the script is written for him to air it out.

You know I love a good revenge story, and D'Andre Swift has this one circled in red. He’s facing his old squad, and he only needs three measly yards to set a new career-high for a season. The Lions are walking into Soldier Field with a massive hole in the middle of their defense with Alim McNeill out, and that’s exactly where Swift is going to exploit them. Chicago’s run game has been a juggernaut since their bye week, averaging 165 yards per game, and with the Bears likely playing from ahead, Swift is going to get all the volume he can handle. He’s cleared this 57.5 line in four of his last five, and I expect him to blow past it by the third quarter. He's got the motivation and the matchup to punish his former team.

I’ve been watching Jared Goff for a long time, and there’s one thing you can set your watch to: he hates the cold. When the temperature dips below 40 degrees, his efficiency falls off a cliff, and we’re looking at a freezing afternoon in Chicago with a chance of snow. To make matters worse, he’s missing his blindside protector Penei Sewell, which is a nightmare scenario against a Bears defense that leads the league in takeaways. Goff looked rattled last week with five total turnovers, and now he’s facing an elite secondary without his best blocker. I don't care what his season average is; in these conditions, behind that depleted line, he’s not hitting 255. The Bears' secondary is going to be sitting on those routes all day.