TALE OF THE TAPE Portland Utah
Record 16-20 ← 12-22
Off Rating 113.1 ← 114.5
Def Rating 115.3 ← 119.9
Net Rating -2.2 ← -5.4
Key Injuries Simons/Grant (OUT) Kessler (OUT) Gary's Take
This is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions. The Portland Trail Blazers have found a bizarre but effective rhythm despite their injuries, winning 4 of their last 5 games by leaning into a massive lineup with Deni Avdija running point and Donovan Clingan anchoring the paint. Avdija is averaging near a triple-double in his last five games, and Utah's disorganized defense (ranked 29th in the league without Walker Kessler) is the perfect opponent for him to dissect. The mismatch in the paint is the deciding factor here. With Walker Kessler out for the season and Jusuf Nurkic banged up, the Jazz are forced to play undersized centers like Kyle Filipowski or John Collins. Portland's Donovan Clingan just dropped 24 points and 12 rebounds in his last outing and should feast on Utah's lack of rim protection. Utah is allowing 123+ points per game during their current losing streak, and they simply don't have the personnel to stop a confident Blazers team at home. While Lauri Markkanen can keep Utah competitive in spurts, the Jazz are 4-11 on the road and have lost their last three games by an average of 12 points. Portland is playing with "house money" momentum, and I expect them to cover this number comfortably against a Jazz team that looks ready for the lottery.
TALE OF THE TAPE
Portland Utah
Record 16-20 ← 12-22
Off Rating 113.1 ← 114.5
Def Rating 115.3 ← 119.9
Net Rating -2.2 ← -5.4
Key Injuries Simons/Grant (OUT) Kessler (OUT)
Gary's Take
This is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions. The Portland Trail Blazers have found a bizarre but effective rhythm despite their injuries, winning 4 of their last 5 games by leaning into a massive lineup with Deni Avdija running point and Donovan Clingan anchoring the paint. Avdija is averaging near a triple-double in his last five games, and Utah's disorganized defense (ranked 29th in the league without Walker Kessler) is the perfect opponent for him to dissect.
The mismatch in the paint is the deciding factor here. With Walker Kessler out for the season and Jusuf Nurkic banged up, the Jazz are forced to play undersized centers like Kyle Filipowski or John Collins. Portland's Donovan Clingan just dropped 24 points and 12 rebounds in his last outing and should feast on Utah's lack of rim protection. Utah is allowing 123+ points per game during their current losing streak, and they simply don't have the personnel to stop a confident Blazers team at home.
While Lauri Markkanen can keep Utah competitive in spurts, the Jazz are 4-11 on the road and have lost their last three games by an average of 12 points. Portland is playing with "house money" momentum, and I expect them to cover this number comfortably against a Jazz team that looks ready for the lottery.
The pick & result
Published pick
Portland Trail Blazers -6.5 -110
Published odds
-110
Result
Won
Final score
117-137
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE
Portland Utah
Record 16-20 ← 12-22
Off Rating 113.1 ← 114.5
Def Rating 115.3 ← 119.9
Net Rating -2.2 ← -5.4
Key Injuries Simons/Grant (OUT) Kessler (OUT)
Gary's Take
This is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions. The Portland Trail Blazers have found a bizarre but effective rhythm despite their injuries, winning 4 of their last 5 games by leaning into a massive lineup with Deni Avdija running point and Donovan Clingan anchoring the paint. Avdija is averaging near a triple-double in his last five games, and Utah's disorganized defense (ranked 29th in the league without Walker Kessler) is the perfect opponent for him to dissect.
The mismatch in the paint is the deciding factor here. With Walker Kessler out for the season and Jusuf Nurkic banged up, the Jazz are forced to play undersized centers like Kyle Filipowski or John Collins. Portland's Donovan Clingan just dropped 24 points and 12 rebounds in his last outing and should feast on Utah's lack of rim protection. Utah is allowing 123+ points per game during their current losing streak, and they simply don't have the personnel to stop a confident Blazers team at home.
While Lauri Markkanen can keep Utah competitive in spurts, the Jazz are 4-11 on the road and have lost their last three games by an average of 12 points. Portland is playing with "house money" momentum, and I expect them to cover this number comfortably against a Jazz team that looks ready for the lottery.
Injuries noted
Utah Jazz: Kevin Love (Out) — Jan 4: Love (rest) won't play in Monday's game against Portland.; Jusuf Nurkic (Day-To-Day) — Jan 4: Nurkic (toe) is questionable for Monday's game against Portland.; Airious Bailey (Questionable) — Jan 4: Bailey (hip) is questionable for Monday's game against Portland.; Georges Niang (Out) — Dec 29: Niang (foot) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Celtics.; Walker Kessler (Out) — Nov 5: Kessler will undergo left shoulder surgery and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, Tony Jones of The Athletic reports.
Portland Trail Blazers: Robert Williams III (Day-To-Day) — Jan 4: Williams (knee) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against the Jazz.; Jrue Holiday (Out) — Jan 4: Holiday (calf) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Jazz.; Jerami Grant (Out) — Jan 4: Grant (Achilles) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Jazz.; Matisse Thybulle (Out) — Jan 1: Portland announced Thursday that Thybulle is also dealing with right knee tendinopathy while also ramping up from thumb surgery.; Scoot Henderson (Out) — Jan 1: Henderson (hamstring) will be re-evaluated in two weeks, Sean Highkin of Rip City Radio 620 Portland reports.; Blake Wesley (Out) — Nov 5: Wesley underwent a successful procedure to repair a fracture of the fifth metatarsal base in his right foot Wednesday, and he's expected to be sidelined for 8-12 weeks, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.; Damian Lillard (Out) — Sep 25: Lillard won't be back on the court for the 2025-26 season, as he made clear during an interview with YouTube influencer Speed on Wednesday.
About this analysis
Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored January 5, 2026 at 11:50 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Source names were not retained with this pick.
Deni Avdija has been a revelation in Portland, stepping into that point-forward role and just dissecting defenses with surgical precision. With Lillard and Scoot Henderson sidelined, the ball is in his hands on nearly every possession, and he's making the right read every single time. He's cleared this 9.5 line in four of his last five games, including back-to-back double-digit assist gems to start the new year. Tonight he gets a Utah Jazz squad that couldn't stop a nosebleed right now, ranking dead last in the league defensively. In a game with a total set at a massive 242.5, the passing lanes are going to be wide open all night for Deni to keep feeding the young Blazers.
Deni Avdija has been a revelation in Portland, stepping into that point-forward role and just dissecting defenses with surgical precision. With Lillard and Scoot Henderson sidelined, the ball is in his hands on nearly every possession, and he's making the right read every single time.
He's cleared this 9.5 line in four of his last five games, including back-to-back double-digit assist gems to start the new year. Tonight he gets a Utah Jazz squad that couldn't stop a nosebleed right now, ranking dead last in the league defensively.
In a game with a total set at a massive 242.5, the passing lanes are going to be wide open all night for Deni to keep feeding the young Blazers.
Deni Avdija has been a revelation in Portland, stepping into that point-forward role and just dissecting defenses with surgical precision. With Lillard and Scoot Henderson sidelined, the ball is in his hands on nearly every possession, and he's making the right read every single time.
He's cleared this 9.5 line in four of his last five games, including back-to-back double-digit assist gems to start the new year. Tonight he gets a Utah Jazz squad that couldn't stop a nosebleed right now, ranking dead last in the league defensively.
In a game with a total set at a massive 242.5, the passing lanes are going to be wide open all night for Deni to keep feeding the young Blazers.
GARY'S PICK
KEYONTE GEORGEPOINTS OVER 24.5
NBAUtah Jazz· -115
Keyonte George is the engine that makes this Jazz offense go, and he's currently on a scoring tear that the books haven't fully caught up to yet. We're talking about a kid who has dropped 20-plus in ten straight games, and he's not just settling for jumpers—he's attacking the cup and getting to the charity stripe with veteran savvy. Portland's backcourt is young and prone to giving up big nights to aggressive guards, and Keyonte is as aggressive as they come when he smells blood. Even with a slight dip in his last outing, the volume is there, the usage is elite, and he's going to be hunting his shot in what should be a high-scoring track meet in the Pacific Northwest.
Keyonte George is the engine that makes this Jazz offense go, and he's currently on a scoring tear that the books haven't fully caught up to yet. We're talking about a kid who has dropped 20-plus in ten straight games, and he's not just settling for jumpers—he's attacking the cup and getting to the charity stripe with veteran savvy. Portland's backcourt is young and prone to giving up big nights to aggressive guards, and Keyonte is as aggressive as they come when he smells blood. Even with a slight dip in his last outing, the volume is there, the usage is elite, and he's going to be hunting his shot in what should be a high-scoring track meet in the Pacific Northwest.
Keyonte George is the engine that makes this Jazz offense go, and he's currently on a scoring tear that the books haven't fully caught up to yet. We're talking about a kid who has dropped 20-plus in ten straight games, and he's not just settling for jumpers—he's attacking the cup and getting to the charity stripe with veteran savvy. Portland's backcourt is young and prone to giving up big nights to aggressive guards, and Keyonte is as aggressive as they come when he smells blood. Even with a slight dip in his last outing, the volume is there, the usage is elite, and he's going to be hunting his shot in what should be a high-scoring track meet in the Pacific Northwest.
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