Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans
Smoothie King Center
Los Angeles Lakers -5.5-105
CONF 78%
WCashedFinal 111-103
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE
Lakers Pelicans Record 22-11 ← 8-29 Net Rating +0.8 ← -7.1 EFG% 58.8% ← 53.2% Pace 100.9 → 103.2 Key Injuries Reaves (OUT) Murray (OUT)
Gary's Take I see Luka Doncic absolutely carving up a Pelicans defense that has essentially quit on the season. New Orleans is riding a miserable seven-game losing streak and their defensive rating is among the worst in the league. Without Dejounte Murray to provide perimeter resistance, Doncic is going to have his way with the Pelicans' rookie-heavy backcourt. While the loss of Austin Reaves is a significant blow to the Lakers' scoring depth, the emergence of Jake LaRavia as a legitimate floor spacer has kept the offense humming. LaRavia has been playing the best basketball of his career lately, and his ability to punish teams for doubling Luka is the secret sauce for this Lakers unit.
On the other side, the Pelicans' only real path to an upset lies in the hands of Zion Williamson. The Lakers have been vulnerable in the paint recently, and Zion leads the league in interior scoring. If he can force Deandre Ayton into early foul trouble and control the glass, New Orleans might hang around for a half. However, the Pelicans' lack of shooting—ranking 28th in effective field goal percentage—means the Lakers can simply pack the paint and dare rookies like Jeremiah Fears to beat them from the outside. Jordan Poole has been ice cold lately, and I do not trust this Pelicans roster to sustain a high-scoring pace against a team as disciplined as the Lakers.
The Lakers have been road warriors this season with a 12-5 record away from home, showing they don't play down to their competition. They have already handled the Pelicans twice this season by double digits, and I expect a similar result tonight. LeBron James is still playing at a high level and his basketball IQ will be the difference-maker in the fourth quarter when things tighten up. The spread is a gift at 5.5 points; the talent disparity here is closer to double digits. I am laying the points with the Lakers as they continue their push for the top seed in the West.
Injuries noted
Los Angeles Lakers: Gabe Vincent (Out) — Vincent is unlikely to play due to a lumbar back strain, which is set to have cost him nine consecutive games. His expected absence leaves the door open for Nick Smith and Dalton Knecht to stick in the Lakers' rotation, though neither player figures to see enough playing time to warrant much streaming consideration.; Rui Hachimura (Out) — Hachimura has already missed three games due to a right calf injury, and he's guaranteed to miss at least two more games. If he's ready to return when the Lakers return from the road trip, he could play Friday against Milwaukee. Hachimura's absence has opened up more opportunities for Jake LaRavia and Dalton Knecht.; Adou Thiero (Out) — Thierro missed the beginning of the season with a left knee issue, so this is not related to that. Thiero will be re-evaluated in four weeks, but it's likely he misses the whole month of January. Thiero has just 15 NBA appearances to his name this season.; Austin Reaves (Out) — Reaves exited Thursday's loss to the Rockets with the injury, and the diagnosis confirmed the star guard will be sidelined for a sizable amount of time. The loss of Reaves means Marcus Smart, Dalton Knecht and potentially Bronny James could be in line for more minutes in the Lakers' backcourt alongside Luka Doncic. Reaves is averaging a career-high 26.2 points per game, so his absence will be a huge blow for the Lakers, as they'll have to rely even more on Doncic and LeBron James to carry the team offensively.
New Orleans Pelicans: Herbert Jones (Out) — Jones has a chance to end a seven-game absence Tuesday. With Saddiq Bey (hip) already ruled out, the Pelicans could need Jones to play significant minutes if the forward is upgraded to available.; Saddiq Bey (Questionable) — Bey will be sidelined for a third straight game Tuesday, while Herbert Jones (ankle) is listed as questionable. For now, Bey can be considered highly questionable for the second leg of this back-to-back set Wednesday against the Hawks.; Dejounte Murray (Out) — "He is making progress. He is doing better. Every single day, he is doing a little more," Charania said. "I would look at right after New Years as to where Dejounte Murray could pinpoint to make his return." Recent reports regarding Murray have been positive, but it's important to note that he'll likely have heavy restrictions once he gets the green light to return. With his upside and impressive fantasy resume, however, he'll certainly be worth stashing in most formats.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Board stored January 6, 2026 at 2:24 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Source names were not retained with this call.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2Jake LaRaviaOVER 12.5 Points Points-130
LActual 5
I'm looking at Jake LaRavia and I see a kid who has completely seized the moment with Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura sidelined. He's not just filling a spot; he's becoming a focal point, logging 37 and 35 minutes in his last two outings while dropping 21 and 26 points.
The books are still treating him like a bench piece with this 12.5 line, but as long as the Lakers are this shorthanded, he's going to have the green light. Against a Pelicans defense that's been bleeding points during this seven-game skid, LaRavia should cruise past this number.
He's on a heater, and I'm riding it until the Lakers get healthy.
Luka DoncicOVER 33.5 Points Points-115
LActual 30
Luka is the sun that the Lakers' universe revolves around, and right now, that sun is burning white-hot. With Reaves out for the next month, the playmaking and scoring burden on Luka goes from heavy to astronomical.
He's coming off a 36-point masterclass against Memphis and now gets a Pelicans team that plays at the second-fastest tempo in the league at home. This game has a massive 243.5 total, which is exactly the kind of environment where Luka thrives.
I expect him to manipulate this struggling New Orleans defense all night and clear this high bar with room to spare.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. In the app you can ride or fade any of them, and your book keeps score against Gary's.
Download on the App Store