Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Indiana Pacers +6.5 -112
- Published odds
- -112
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 120-116
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE
Cleveland Cavaliers Indiana Pacers Record 20-17 ← 6-30 Net Rating +2.4 ← -7.9 Effective FG% 53.6 ← 53.1 Turnover Rate 12.0 → 10.8 Pace 104.1 ← 102.7 Key Injuries Mitchell (OUT) Mathurin (OUT)
Gary's Take I'm flipping the script on this one. On the surface, taking a Cleveland Cavaliers team against an Indiana Pacers squad that has lost 12 straight games looks like the easiest money you'll ever make. But in this business, when a line looks too good to be true, you better start looking for the trap. The trap here is the massive hole left by Donovan Mitchell. While the public sees a 20-win team vs. a 6-win team, the sharps are looking at a Cleveland offense that is a staggering 17 points worse per 100 possessions when Mitchell isn't on the floor. Without his gravity and late-game shot-making, the Cavs are 1-2 this season and just dropped a game to the Pistons where the offense completely stagnated.
On the other side, Pascal Siakam is playing like a man possessed. He’s averaging nearly 28 points over his last five games and is coming off a 34-point masterpiece. With Jarrett Allen potentially limited as he returns from an illness, Siakam is going to have room to operate in that mid-range. Indiana is depleted, sure, but they’ve been surprisingly competitive lately, dropping three of their last four games by 10 points or less. They are at home, they are desperate to snap this streak, and they’re facing a Cleveland team that historically struggles to find its rhythm when Mitchell sits.
Darius Garland is a fine playmaker, but asking him to carry the entire scoring load against a Pacers team that still has pesky defenders like Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith is a tall order. I expect a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair where Cleveland’s defense keeps them in it, but their lack of a closer allows Indiana to hang around until the final buzzer. The 6.5 points are a gift in a game where the favorite is missing its heartbeat. Take the points with the home dog.
Injuries noted
Cleveland Cavaliers: Larry Nance Jr. (Out) — Nance hasn't played since Nov. 28 due to a right calf strain, and the Cavaliers have yet to provide an update on his progress. The veteran big man should be considered week-to-week until Cleveland offers an update on his recovery.; Donovan Mitchell (Out) — Given his absence is for rest purposes, the expectation is that the superstar guard will be able to return for Thursday's showdown in Minnesota. With Mitchell set to be a spectator Tuesday, Sam Merrill and Craig Porter should both find themselves under streaming consideration in fantasy leagues.; Dean Wade (Day-To-Day) — Wade was previously listed as questionable, but he's now likely to return from a two-game absence. This is good news for Cleveland, as Jaylon Tyson (illness) is now questionable to suit up.; Jarrett Allen (Day-To-Day) — Allen was previously listed as questionable after missing Sunday's game with this illness. He's trending in the right direction, however, and he's likely to give it a go if he continues to feel good during warmups.; Chris Livingston (Out) — After being waived by the Bucks during training camp, Livingston has latched on with another team. The 2023 second-rounder will likely see most of his playing time come with the G League's Cleveland Charge, though Livingston is also a depth option in the Cavaliers' frontcourt while Jarrett Allen's (finger) status remains in limbo.; Max Strus (Out) — Strus has yet to play this season after undergoing foot surgery back in August. For now, fantasy managers can consider him week-to-week.; Jaylon Tyson (Day-To-Day) — Tyson was a late addition to the injury report, and that's usually a troubling sign in fantasy. Fortunately for the Cavaliers, both Jarrett Allen (illness) and Dean Wade (knee) have been upgraded from questionable to probable.
Indiana Pacers: Isaiah Jackson (Out) — Jackson hasn't taken the court since Dec. 22 after suffering a concussion. The Pacers waived Tony Bradley on Monday, which should open up more playing time for Micah Potter and Jay Huff.; Bennedict Mathurin (Out) — Pacers reporter Dustin Dopirak noted that when Carlisle uses the "a while" timetable, it typically means the player will spend at least a week on the sidelines, and potentially multiple weeks. Therefore, it doesn't sound like Mathurin will be available during Week 12. Aaron Nesmith, Johnny Furphy and Ben Sheppard will all help fill the void while Mathurin is out.; Obi Toppin (Out) — Toppin will likely miss a considerable amount of time following this surgery. Head coach Rick Carlisle told the media not to ask about Toppin's status until Feb. 1. The team will likely turn to Jay Huff, Jarace Walker and Tony Bradley to help shoulder the load in the frontcourt.; Tyrese Haliburton (Out) — Haliburton tore his right Achilles in Game 7 of the NBA Finals on June 22 and underwent surgery the following day. Any hope of a return during the 2025-26 campaign was shut down Monday, when Pacers president Kevin Pritchard stated plainly, "He will not play next year though. We would not jeopardize that now. So don't get any hopes up that he will play." Haliburton has cemented himself as the face of the franchise and played a key role in Indiana's run to the NBA Finals during the 2024-25 playoffs, averaging 17.3 points, 8.6 assists, 5.3 rebounds and 1.3 steals in 33.5 minutes across 23 postseason games. During the 2024-25 regular season, the 2020 first-round pick averaged 18.6 points, 9.2 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 1.4 steals over 73 appearances.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored January 6, 2026 at 2:24 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Source names were not retained with this pick.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKDARIUS GARLANDPOINTS OVER 24.5
With Donovan Mitchell officially resting, the keys to the Cavs' offense are handed back to Darius Garland. We've seen this movie before; when Mitchell sits, Garland turns into an aggressive, score-first floor general.
He dropped 35 points in his only other game without Spida this season, and tonight he faces an Indiana defense that is currently a revolving door. The Pacers are on a 12-game losing streak and have no answer for dynamic guards.
I expect Garland to hunt his shot early and often in what should be a high-possession track meet.
- GARY'S PICKPASCAL SIAKAMPOINTS OVER 24.5
Pascal Siakam is the last man standing for a Pacers team desperate to avoid a franchise-record losing streak. He's been playing like a man possessed, clearing this 24.5 line in three of his last five games, including a 34-point outburst just two days ago.
With Tyrese Haliburton out for the year, the offense is funneling through Siakam in the mid-post and transition. Cleveland's defense is stout, but if Jarrett Allen is sidelined with his respiratory illness, Siakam will have a massive advantage attacking the paint.
He's in a contract year and knows he needs to carry this heavy load every single night.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery NBA game this dayThe NBA recordToday's NBA picksEvery sport this day