Sports picks for Wednesday, January 7, 2026

I'm looking at this 10.5 line for Nurkic and I'm wondering if the books are still watching tape from three years ago. Since the Jazz moved him into the starting role, the 'Bosnian Beast' has been playing like a man possessed, averaging nearly 20 points over his last five outings. He’s facing a Thunder squad that, while elite, is notoriously thin in the frontcourt with Hartenstein sidelined. Nurkic is going to have a massive weight and strength advantage over Chet Holmgren in the paint. I expect Utah to feed him early and often to capitalize on that mismatch, and he could honestly clear this number before the halftime show even starts. It's the kind of situational usage spike that keeps us in business.

Look, with Josh Giddey sidelined and Coby White essentially a game-time decision, the Bulls' playmaking cupboard is bone dry. Ayo has stepped into that vacuum and looked like a seasoned floor general, clearing this 3.5 line in five straight games with absolute ease. He’s not just passing the ball; he’s orchestrating the offense, and his minutes floor is as high as it gets tonight. Detroit’s defense is stout, but someone has to move the rock for Chicago, and Ayo is the guy getting all the touches. I expect him to flirt with 6 or 7 assists again in a game where the Bulls will be desperate for any kind of offensive flow.

With Jayson Tatum watching from the sidelines, the Celtics need a floor general, and Derrick White has stepped into that role like he was born for it. He’s been a playmaking machine lately, clearing this 5.5 line in four of his last five games while averaging over six dimes. Denver’s defense has been a total mess, ranking 29th in the league over the last ten games, and without Jokic to anchor the paint, White is going to have wide-open lanes to drive and kick all night. I expect him to keep the ball moving and find his shooters early and often in front of the home crowd. It's a classic spot for White to control the tempo and rack up the assists.

I've been watching this kid Murray-Boyles, and with Jakob Poeltl sidelined, he's not just filling a spot—he's eating glass. He's cleared this 5.5 line in four of his last five games, including massive 12-rebound efforts against some tough frontcourts. Charlotte is missing basically their entire center rotation with Williams, Plumlee, and Kalkbrenner all out, leaving a massive void in the paint. The Raptors are trusting the rookie with nearly 27 minutes a night lately, and he's responding by hunting every loose ball. Against a depleted Hornets interior that's giving up boards in bunches, Murray-Boyles is going to feast on the offensive and defensive glass all night long.

Tyrese Maxey has been an absolute flamethrower this season, and tonight he’s walking into a gym where the defense is basically a revolving door. With the Wizards missing their veteran perimeter anchors in CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton, Maxey is going to have a field day getting to his spots. He’s already hung 37 and 39 on these guys this season, and with Joel Embiid banged up and questionable, the Sixers are going to lean on Tyrese to carry the heavy scoring load. Washington plays at a breakneck pace, which just means more possessions for the league's third-leading scorer to hunt his shot. I expect him to blow past this 27.5 line before the fourth quarter even starts.

Listen, Nickeil Alexander-Walker is walking into a dream scenario tonight. With Trae Young out for a 6th straight game, the keys to the Hawks' perimeter scoring have been handed to him, and he’s been thriving, averaging nearly 22 points over his last five. But the real juice here is the revenge factor—NAW loves sticking it to his former teams, and this Pelicans squad is a mess right now, riding an 8-game losing streak and playing on zero rest. He’s logged 34+ minutes in four of his last five games and isn't afraid to pull the trigger from deep. Against a tired New Orleans backcourt that can't stop a nosebleed lately, NAW is going to be the focal point of an Atlanta offense that wants to run. I expect him to hunt his shot early and often in what should be a high-paced track meet.

Listen, Paolo Banchero is going to be a man on a mission tonight. He was benched for the entire fourth quarter in their last outing, and you better believe a star of his caliber isn't going to let that slide quietly. With Franz Wagner out, the Magic offense is essentially 'The Paolo Show,' and he’s already been averaging 25 points over his last five games. He’s also motivated by falling in the All-Star voting, and there’s no better way to send a message than by torching a Brooklyn team that lacks a physical wing defender to slow him down. Expect him to demand the rock early and often, putting up high-volume shots to carry this shorthanded Orlando squad. This isn't just a stat play; it's a 'best player on the floor' statement game.

When Josh Hart goes down, Tom Thibodeau doesn't just look for a replacement; he looks for a marathon runner, and Miles 'Deuce' McBride is that guy. McBride has been feasting on the extra minutes, clearing this 11.5 line in four of his last five games while averaging nearly 17 points in that stretch. He’s not just a spot-up shooter anymore; he’s attacking the rim and playing with a level of confidence we haven't seen before. Against a Clippers team that’s traveled across the country and might have some heavy legs, McBride’s energy is going to be the spark the Knicks need. This line is a gift considering his current usage and the fact that Thibs will likely ride him for 35+ minutes tonight.

Listen, if you don't think Dillon Brooks has this date circled in red ink on his calendar, you haven't been paying attention to the man's career. He’s heading back to Memphis with a massive chip on his shoulder, and with Jalen Green out of the lineup, the Suns are going to need every bit of his aggressive scoring. Brooks is a volume shooter who feeds off emotion, and there’s no bigger emotional trigger than facing the team that let him walk. I see him hunting his shot early and often, carving through a tired Grizzlies perimeter defense that’s playing on the second night of a back-to-back. Expect the 'Villain' to put on a show in his old stomping grounds.

With Isaiah Hartenstein on the shelf, Chet Holmgren isn't just the future of the Thunder—he's their entire rebounding department right now. He's cleared this 9.5 mark in four of his last five games, and the one he missed was a weird night where he only saw 26 minutes. Utah is a team that misses a lot of shots, and with Walker Kessler out for the year, there's a lot of 'available' glass for Chet to clean up. Even if this game turns into a blowout, Chet's length and activity on the defensive boards should get him to double digits by the third quarter. He's been averaging nearly 11 boards over the last week, and I don't see the Jazz having anyone athletic enough to keep him off the rim tonight.

The rookie has completely taken the keys to the Spurs' offense lately, acting as the primary engine while De'Aaron Fox settles into his new surroundings. Castle has cleared this 6.5 assist line in four of his last five games, showing a level of floor-reading and poise that's rare for a first-year player. Against a Lakers defense that's ranked 24th in the league and likely gassed on the second night of a road back-to-back, Castle is going to find cutters and open shooters all night long. San Antonio plays at the 6th fastest pace in the league, which means more possessions and more opportunities for Castle to rack up dimes. I expect him to be the focal point of the Spurs' playmaking tonight in a high-total environment.

Bobby Portis is a walking double-double threat off the bench, and tonight he's licking his chops against a Golden State frontcourt that's undersized and potentially missing Draymond Green. Look at the numbers—Bobby has cleared this 16.5 line in five straight games, and it hasn't even been close in most of them. The Bucks are struggling on the glass as a team, which only forces Portis to be more aggressive when he's on the floor. He's the heart and soul of that second unit, and with the Warriors' bench lacking a true physical presence, Portis should feast in the paint. I expect him to hit this line by the end of the third quarter as he cleans up the boards and gets his usual share of putbacks and mid-range looks.

The kid is a monster on the glass and Portland is leaning on him heavily with the rest of the roster in the infirmary. He's cleared this line in four of his last five, including a massive 17-board performance against Utah just two nights ago. Steven Adams is a veteran bruiser, but Clingan has the youth and the length to outwork him for second-chance opportunities. With Houston missing Sengun's interior presence, there's even more room for Clingan to dominate the paint. I expect him to be the focal point of Portland's defensive rebounding tonight.

Bruce Brown is the ultimate glue guy, and right now, he's the only thing holding this Denver roster together with Jokic and the bigs on the shelf. He just dropped 19 points in a marathon 39-minute effort against Philly, proving that when the Nuggets are short-handed, Bruce is the one they lean on to create offense. Asking him to find just six points tonight is a gift, especially considering he’s averaging over seven on the season even when the team is healthy. He knows how to cut to the rim and scavenge for points, and with Denver's rotation as thin as it is, he’s going to get the volume he needs to smash this line. Don't overthink it—Bruce is going to be on the floor for 30+ minutes, and he doesn't need much to get us over the hump.

Brandon Miller is playing like a man who wants that All-Star nod, and right now, nobody on the Hornets can stop him from getting his shots. He's been on an absolute tear, averaging over 26 points a game over his last five outings, which makes this 19.5 line look like a mistake. Even with Toronto's length on the wings, Miller's confidence is sky-high after leading Charlotte to a massive upset over OKC. He's the primary engine of this offense, and with the Hornets on the front end of a back-to-back, they'll need him to carry the scoring load early and often. I expect him to stay aggressive and cruise past this number before the fourth quarter even starts.

Alex Sarr is starting to realize he’s the biggest, most talented guy on the floor for this Wizards squad, and tonight the training wheels are completely off. With the veterans resting, Sarr becomes the focal point of the offense and the primary glass-cleaner against a Philly team that can be vulnerable on the boards if Embiid isn't 100%. He snagged 11 rebounds in their last meeting, and his season average of 7.8 is already sitting above this line. The Wizards are going to need every bit of his length to compete in the paint, and I see him being extremely active on both ends of the floor. If you think the Sixers have an answer for his mobility in the paint, you haven't been watching the tape.

I’m looking at Zion tonight and I see a guy who’s going to be fighting uphill all game. He’s on the second night of a back-to-back, and his legs are going to feel every bit of that Atlanta humidity after a tough battle with the Lakers. The Hawks have built a literal wall in the paint with Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis, and historically, that kind of length gives Zion fits. His season average is already sitting at 22.5, a full two points below this line, and the Pelicans' overall fatigue could lead to an early night if this game gets out of hand as the double-digit spread suggests. With the Hawks' defense actually playing more cohesive ball without Trae, they’ll collapse the paint and dare anyone else to beat them. I see Zion struggling to find his usual efficiency in a very crowded lane.

Michael Porter Jr. is playing the best basketball of his career right now, and he’s doing it with the trade vultures circling. He’s cleared this 24.5 line in four of his last five games, averaging nearly 27 points a night during that stretch. The Magic are limping into this one on the second night of a back-to-back and, more importantly, they’re missing their defensive heart in Jalen Suggs. Without Suggs to harass him on the perimeter, MPJ is going to have a field day finding his spots and rising over smaller defenders. He’s locked in, shooting over 40% from deep this season, and the Nets are leaning on him as their primary offensive engine. I see him carving up a fatigued Orlando defense that’s already missing its best stoppers.

Listen, Kawhi Leonard in January is a different animal, and right now, he’s hunting. With Bradley Beal sidelined and James Harden playing through a bum shoulder, the Clippers’ offense is basically 'get the ball to the Klaw and get out of the way.' He’s been putting up video game numbers lately—including that 55-point masterpiece—and now he walks into the Garden where the lights are brightest. The Knicks' defense has been a sieve lately, allowing 110+ points in 12 straight games, and they don't have anyone who can physically match up with Kawhi when he gets to his spots in the mid-range. I expect him to take 20+ shots tonight and cruise past this number as the Clippers look to maintain their hot streak.

With Ja Morant likely watching from the sidelines, the keys to the Grizzlies' offense are firmly in the hands of Jaren Jackson Jr. Triple J is coming off a gritty 21-point performance against the Spurs just last night, proving he can shoulder the load when the lights are brightest. The Suns lack elite interior size to bother him consistently, and Jackson has shown he’s more than willing to step out and knock down the three when the lane gets clogged. He’s cleared this 20.5 line in three of his last five outings, and in a high-stakes West clash, he’s the guy Memphis will turn to every time they need a bucket. He’s the focal point tonight, plain and simple.

With Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura officially ruled out, and LeBron James dealing with multiple ailments on a back-to-back, the Lakers' offense is essentially the Luka Doncic show tonight. Luka is the NBA's leading scorer for a reason, and he knows he has to shoulder an even heavier scoring burden to keep the Lakers competitive against a tough Spurs team. He's cleared this 34.5 point mark in three of his last five games and consistently sees massive volume, averaging over 36 minutes a night. San Antonio's fast pace will only provide him with more field goal attempts. Expect Luka to be aggressive from the jump, hunting his own shot in a game where the Lakers are significant underdogs and need every point he can provide.

Tari Eason is finally seeing the floor like he should, and the results are speaking for themselves. With Sengun sidelined, the Rockets need Eason's energy and nose for the ball more than ever, evidenced by his 30+ minutes in recent outings. He's snagged at least 8 boards in four straight games, making this 6.5 line look like a gift from the books. Portland plays at a top-10 pace, which means more missed shots and more chances for a high-motor guy like Eason to clean up. He's going to be all over the glass tonight.