Daily archive

2026-01-07

The stored Gary board for Wed, Jan 7. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

NBA

Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers

TALE OF THE TAPE Portland Houston Record 17-20 → 22-11 Net Rating -1.5 → +7.3 Pace 104.0 ← 98.1 Off Rebound % 27.4% → 36.8% Key Injuries Grant (OUT) Sengun (OUT) Gary's Take The market is still treating the Portland Trail Blazers like the lottery team they were in October, but that version of Portland is long gone. Even with a backcourt that looks more like an infirmary ward than a basketball team, the Blazers have found a terrifying rhythm. Deni Avdija is playing the best basketball of his life, coming off a Western Conference Player of the Week nod where he was essentially a 6'9" version of Magic Johnson. Over his last five games, he is averaging 28.0 points and nearly 10 assists, and Houston’s defense—while elite—is going to have a nightmare of a time containing a point-forward of that size without Alperen Sengun’s interior presence to help. Houston is a legitimate contender, but they have developed a nasty habit of leaving their focus at the airport. They are just 3-7 in their last ten road games, a startling split for a team with the second-best net rating in the league. Coming off an emotional, high-stakes win over Phoenix where Kevin Durant had to play hero with a buzzer-beater, this has all the markings of a classic letdown spot. The Rockets often prefer to grind games out in the half-court, ranking 29th in pace, but Portland is going to try to turn this into a track meet to exploit Houston's older legs. The battle on the glass will be the deciding factor. Houston leads the league in rebounding, and Steven Adams is back to anchor that effort, but Portland’s rookie Donovan Clingan has been a revelation, ranking 5th in the NBA in boards. If Clingan can keep the Rockets from getting three and four looks at the rim, Portland’s transition game will take over. I expect Kevin Durant to get his—he is chasing Wilt Chamberlain on the scoring list and remains unguardable—but the Blazers' collective energy at the Moda Center is too high to ignore right now. I am taking the points with the home dog here. Portland is playing with a desperation that usually spells trouble for favorites who are feeling a little too good about themselves. Don't be surprised if the Blazers win this outright, but the 6.5 points provide a massive safety net for a team that has won five of its last six. Take the Portland Trail Blazers +6.5.

Portland Trail Blazers +6.5-108

NBA

Milwaukee Bucks @ Golden State Warriors

TALE OF THE TAPE Milwaukee Bucks Golden State Warriors Record 16-20 → 19-18 Net Rating -1.9 → +1.2 Pace 100.3 → 102.6 Home/Away 7-11 → 11-5 Key Injuries Prince (OUT) Green (GTD) Gary's Take The Milwaukee Bucks are finally looking like the team they were supposed to be before the early-season chaos. With Giannis Antetokounmpo back at full strength and averaging over 30 points in his last five outings, the Bucks have won four of their last five and are playing with a level of cohesion we haven't seen all year. The addition of Myles Turner has given them a legitimate defensive anchor, which will be critical tonight against a Warriors team that relies on Jimmy Butler's ability to attack the rim. Golden State is in a precarious spot. While they are dominant at Chase Center, the health of Draymond Green is the massive elephant in the room. Green is questionable with an ankle sprain, and without him, the Warriors have no answer for Giannis. Even if he plays, he won't be 100 percent, and asking a compromised Draymond or a rookie like Quinten Post to wall off the paint against a surging Giannis is a recipe for disaster. Furthermore, the Bucks have a rest advantage and already beat the Warriors by double digits earlier this season. While Steph Curry is always capable of a nuclear performance at home, the Bucks' young backcourt of Kevin Porter Jr. and Ryan Rollins has been surprisingly disciplined. I expect a high-scoring, close affair where the Bucks' interior size and Giannis's gravity eventually wear down a thinner Warriors frontcourt. Taking the points with a team that has the best player on the floor and superior momentum is the sharp play. I like the Bucks to keep this within two possessions or win outright.

Milwaukee Bucks +5.5-110

NBA

Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Hornets

TALE OF THE TAPE Charlotte Toronto Record 13-23 → 22-15 Off Rating 115.6 ← 114.0 Def Rating 117.3 → 111.8 Net Rating -1.7 → +2.1 Key Injuries Kalkbrenner (OUT) Poeltl (OUT) Gary's Take Don't let the season records fool you into thinking this is a mismatch. The Charlotte Hornets are currently playing their best basketball of the season, having pivoted to a high-octane small-ball identity that has completely transformed their ceiling. While Toronto sits 4th in the East, they are walking into a Spectrum Center that has seen the Hornets dismantle the Thunder by 27 points just three days ago. That win wasn't a fluke; it was the result of a lineup featuring LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and rookie sensation Kon Knueppel that creates impossible spacing for traditional defenses. The absence of Jakob Poeltl for Toronto is the critical lever tonight. While the Raptors have gone 4-1 recently by leaning into their own small-ball looks with Collin Murray-Boyles, they haven't faced a team that can exploit a lack of rim protection quite like Charlotte. The Hornets lead the league in rookie three-pointers and have nine rotation players shooting over 36% from deep. Without Poeltl to anchor the paint, Toronto's perimeter defenders will be forced to play on an island against Brandon Miller and Miles Bridges, both of whom are coming off dominant scoring performances. History also favors the home dog here. Charlotte has won two of the three meetings this season, including a dominant 25-point victory in Toronto last month. They clearly understand how to disrupt the Raptors' offensive flow. While Brandon Ingram is playing at an All-Star level, I expect Charlotte's collective offensive depth and the home-court energy of a team surging toward a play-in spot to be the difference. I'm taking the plus money on the Hornets to win this outright in what should be a high-scoring track meet. Charlotte Hornets ML +102.

Charlotte Hornets ML+102

NBA

Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies

TALE OF THE TAPE Phoenix Suns Memphis Grizzlies Record 21-15 ← 16-20 Net Rating +0.3 ← -3.5 Pace 101.2 → 104.0 Road/Home 9-10 ← 8-9 Key Injuries Jalen Green Ja Morant (GTD) J. Bouyea Zach Edey (OUT) Gary's Take This is a classic situational mismatch where the schedule makers did the Grizzlies no favors. Memphis is walking into the FedExForum on the second night of a back-to-back, having just emptied the tank in an emotional one-point win over San Antonio. This is their fourth game in six days, and they are doing it with a roster that looks more like a hospital ward than an NBA rotation. With Ja Morant doubtful and Zach Edey out, the Grizzlies are missing the vertical spacing and rim pressure that makes their high-pace offense click. Jaren Jackson Jr. is a force, but he can't carry the scoring load alone against a Phoenix defense that has found its teeth, ranking 10th in the league and holding opponents to just 108 points recently. On the other side, the Phoenix Suns are rested and looking for blood after a heartbreaker in Houston. The transformation of this team since the 2025 offseason has been remarkable; they've traded superstar ISO-ball for a gritty, defensive identity. Dillon Brooks is playing some of the best basketball of his career, averaging over 20 points in his last ten games and providing the kind of point-of-attack defense that will make life miserable for a tired Grizzlies backcourt. Devin Booker is due for a bounce-back efficiency night, and with Grayson Allen back in the fold to provide floor spacing, the Suns simply have too many ways to hurt a fatigued opponent. While the Grizzlies have historically owned this matchup, winning six straight regular-season meetings, those games didn't feature this specific version of the Suns or a Memphis team this depleted. The Grizzlies' league-leading pace usually wears teams down, but tonight it's more likely to wear themselves out against a rested Phoenix squad that excels in the half-court. I expect the Suns to control the tempo early, exploit the mismatch in the paint with Mark Williams, and pull away in the second half as Memphis's legs start to go. Lay the points with the road favorite. I'm taking the Phoenix Suns -4.5 -108.

Phoenix Suns -4.5-108

Player props

NBA · Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Jusuf Nurkic

I'm looking at this 10.5 line for Nurkic and I'm wondering if the books are still watching tape from three years ago. Since the Jazz moved him into the starting role, the 'Bosnian Beast' has been playing like a man possessed, averaging nearly 20 points over his last five outings.

OVER 10.5 Points+101

· L5 points: 21, 26, 16, 16, 17
· L5 average: 19.2 PPG vs line 10.5
· Season average: 10.3 PPG

NBA · Chicago Bulls @ Detroit Pistons

Ayo Dosunmu

Look, with Josh Giddey sidelined and Coby White essentially a game-time decision, the Bulls' playmaking cupboard is bone dry. Ayo has stepped into that vacuum and looked like a seasoned floor general, clearing this 3.5 line in five straight games with absolute ease.

OVER 3.5 Assists-132

· L5 assists: 5, 4, 7, 6, 7
· Season avg: 3.4 APG
· Usage: Primary ball-handler with Giddey and White out

NBA · Denver Nuggets @ Boston Celtics

Derrick White

With Jayson Tatum watching from the sidelines, the Celtics need a floor general, and Derrick White has stepped into that role like he was born for it. He’s been a playmaking machine lately, clearing this 5.5 line in four of his last five games while averaging over six dimes.

OVER 5.5 Assists-124

· L5 assists: 7, 7, 7, 6, 5
· Season avg: 5.3 APG
· Celtics without Jayson Tatum

NBA · Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Hornets

Collin Murray-Boyles

I've been watching this kid Murray-Boyles, and with Jakob Poeltl sidelined, he's not just filling a spot—he's eating glass. He's cleared this 5.5 line in four of his last five games, including massive 12-rebound efforts against some tough frontcourts.

OVER 5.5 Rebounds-115

· L5 rebounds: 7, 3, 9, 12, 12
· L5 average: 8.6 RPG vs 5.5 line
· Season average: 4.3 RPG

NBA · Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers

Tyrese Maxey

Tyrese Maxey has been an absolute flamethrower this season, and tonight he’s walking into a gym where the defense is basically a revolving door. With the Wizards missing their veteran perimeter anchors in CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton, Maxey is going to have a field day getting to his spots.

OVER 27.5 Points-122

· Season avg: 31.0 PPG
· Matchup avg: 37.0 PPG over two games vs WAS this season
· Wizards defense: 29th in NBA, 124 PPG allowed

NBA · New Orleans Pelicans @ Atlanta Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Listen, Nickeil Alexander-Walker is walking into a dream scenario tonight. With Trae Young out for a 6th straight game, the keys to the Hawks' perimeter scoring have been handed to him, and he’s been thriving, averaging nearly 22 points over his last five.

OVER 21.5 Points-122

· L5 pts: 14, 31, 23, 11, 30
· Season avg: 20.5 PPG
· L5 avg: 21.8 PPG (calculated from fetch_player_game_logs)

NBA · Orlando Magic @ Brooklyn Nets

Paolo Banchero

Listen, Paolo Banchero is going to be a man on a mission tonight. He was benched for the entire fourth quarter in their last outing, and you better believe a star of his caliber isn't going to let that slide quietly.

OVER 23.5 Points-107

· L5 scoring: 14, 28, 31, 29, 23
· L5 avg: 25.0 PPG vs line 23.5
· Season avg: 20.7 PPG

NBA · Los Angeles Clippers @ New York Knicks

Miles McBride

When Josh Hart goes down, Tom Thibodeau doesn't just look for a replacement; he looks for a marathon runner, and Miles 'Deuce' McBride is that guy. McBride has been feasting on the extra minutes, clearing this 11.5 line in four of his last five games while averaging nearly 17 points in that stretch.

OVER 11.5 Points-101

· L5 points: 17, 20, 11, 21, 14
· Season avg: 12.6 PPG
· L5 avg: 16.6 PPG

NBA · Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies

Dillon Brooks

Listen, if you don't think Dillon Brooks has this date circled in red ink on his calendar, you haven't been paying attention to the man's career. He’s heading back to Memphis with a massive chip on his shoulder, and with Jalen Green out of the lineup, the Suns are going to need every bit of his aggressive scoring.

OVER 19.5 Points-128

· L5 points: 15, 22, 18, 20, 26
· Season avg: 21.2 PPG
· Matchup: Revenge game vs former team Memphis

NBA · Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Chet Holmgren

With Isaiah Hartenstein on the shelf, Chet Holmgren isn't just the future of the Thunder—he's their entire rebounding department right now. He's cleared this 9.5 mark in four of his last five games, and the one he missed was a weird night where he only saw 26 minutes.

OVER 9.5 Rebounds+101

· L5 rebounds: 6, 9, 15, 10, 10
· L5 average: 10.0 RPG vs line 9.5
· Context: Isaiah Hartenstein [RECENT] out

NBA · Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs

Stephon Castle

The rookie has completely taken the keys to the Spurs' offense lately, acting as the primary engine while De'Aaron Fox settles into his new surroundings. Castle has cleared this 6.5 assist line in four of his last five games, showing a level of floor-reading and poise that's rare for a first-year player.

OVER 6.5 Assists-142

· L5 assists: 4, 9, 8, 7, 8
· Season avg: 7.0 APG
· Minutes last 5: 28, 37, 33, 27, 34

NBA · Milwaukee Bucks @ Golden State Warriors

Bobby Portis

Bobby Portis is a walking double-double threat off the bench, and tonight he's licking his chops against a Golden State frontcourt that's undersized and potentially missing Draymond Green. Look at the numbers—Bobby has cleared this 16.5 line in five straight games, and it hasn't even been close in most of them.

OVER 16.5 Points Rebounds-125

· L5 Points + Rebounds: 20, 26, 18, 27, 28
· Season avg: 13.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG (19.7 PR)
· L5 avg: 23.8 PR vs 16.5 line

NBA · Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers

Donovan Clingan

The kid is a monster on the glass and Portland is leaning on him heavily with the rest of the roster in the infirmary. He's cleared this line in four of his last five, including a massive 17-board performance against Utah just two nights ago.

OVER 10.5 Rebounds-130

· L5 rebounds: 17, 12, 15, 5, 11
· Season avg: 10.8 RPG
· Last 3 games avg: 14.7 RPG

NBA · Denver Nuggets @ Boston Celtics

Bruce Brown

Bruce Brown is the ultimate glue guy, and right now, he's the only thing holding this Denver roster together with Jokic and the bigs on the shelf. He just dropped 19 points in a marathon 39-minute effort against Philly, proving that when the Nuggets are short-handed, Bruce is the one they lean on to create offense.

OVER 5.5 Points-119

· L5 points: 19, 0, 0, 8, 15
· Season avg: 7.4 PPG
· Played 39 minutes in last game

NBA · Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Hornets

Brandon Miller

Brandon Miller is playing like a man who wants that All-Star nod, and right now, nobody on the Hornets can stop him from getting his shots. He's been on an absolute tear, averaging over 26 points a game over his last five outings, which makes this 19.5 line look like a mistake.

OVER 19.5 Points-123

· L5 average: 26.6 PPG
· Season average: 19.5 PPG
· Last 5 games: Cleared 19.5 in most

NBA · Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers

Alex Sarr

Alex Sarr is starting to realize he’s the biggest, most talented guy on the floor for this Wizards squad, and tonight the training wheels are completely off. With the veterans resting, Sarr becomes the focal point of the offense and the primary glass-cleaner against a Philly team that can be vulnerable on the boards if Embiid isn't 100%.

OVER 7.5 Rebounds-148

· Season avg: 7.8 RPG
· Matchup context: 11 rebounds vs PHI in previous meeting
· Usage: Skyrocketing with McCollum and Middleton out

NBA · New Orleans Pelicans @ Atlanta Hawks

Zion Williamson

I’m looking at Zion tonight and I see a guy who’s going to be fighting uphill all game. He’s on the second night of a back-to-back, and his legs are going to feel every bit of that Atlanta humidity after a tough battle with the Lakers.

UNDER 24.5 Points-125

· Season avg: 22.5 PPG
· Line: 24.5
· Matchup: Faced Porzingis/Johnson wall

NBA · Orlando Magic @ Brooklyn Nets

Michael Porter Jr.

Michael Porter Jr. is playing the best basketball of his career right now, and he’s doing it with the trade vultures circling. He’s cleared this 24.5 line in four of his last five games, averaging nearly 27 points a night during that stretch.

OVER 24.5 Points-112

· L5 scoring: 27, 27, 27, 28, 24
· L5 avg: 26.6 PPG vs line 24.5
· Season avg: 25.9 PPG

NBA · Los Angeles Clippers @ New York Knicks

Kawhi Leonard

Listen, Kawhi Leonard in January is a different animal, and right now, he’s hunting. With Bradley Beal sidelined and James Harden playing through a bum shoulder, the Clippers’ offense is basically 'get the ball to the Klaw and get out of the way.' He’s been putting up video game numbers lately—including that 55-point masterpiece—and now he walks into the Garden where the lights are brightest. The Knicks' defense has been a sieve lately, allowing 110+ points in 12 straight games, and they don't have anyone who can physically match up with Kawhi when he gets to his spots in the mid-range. I expect him to take 20+ shots tonight and cruise past this number as the Clippers look to maintain their hot streak.

OVER 27.5 Points-113

· L5 points: 24, 22, 45, 33, 55
· Season avg: 28.1 PPG
· L5 avg: 35.8 PPG

NBA · Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies

Jaren Jackson Jr.

With Ja Morant likely watching from the sidelines, the keys to the Grizzlies' offense are firmly in the hands of Jaren Jackson Jr. Triple J is coming off a gritty 21-point performance against the Spurs just last night, proving he can shoulder the load when the lights are brightest.

OVER 20.5 Points-122

· L5 points: 21, 14, 25, 15, 31
· Season avg: 18.5 PPG
· Usage: Ja Morant (calf) likely out

NBA · Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs

Luka Doncic

With Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura officially ruled out, and LeBron James dealing with multiple ailments on a back-to-back, the Lakers' offense is essentially the Luka Doncic show tonight. Luka is the NBA's leading scorer for a reason, and he knows he has to shoulder an even heavier scoring burden to keep the Lakers competitive against a tough Spurs team.

OVER 34.5 Points-118

· Season avg: 33.5 PPG
· L5 pts: 30, 36, 34, 30, 34
· NBA Rank: #1 in scoring

NBA · Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers

Tari Eason

Tari Eason is finally seeing the floor like he should, and the results are speaking for themselves. With Sengun sidelined, the Rockets need Eason's energy and nose for the ball more than ever, evidenced by his 30+ minutes in recent outings.

OVER 6.5 Rebounds+107

· L5 rebounds: 8, 10, 9, 8, 6
· Season avg: 5.7 RPG
· Played season-high 34 minutes on Jan 3

Graded results

Games

W
Portland Trail Blazers +6.5 -108
NBA · 102-103
L
Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 -110
NBA · 113-120
L
Charlotte Hornets ML +102
NBA · 97-96
W
Phoenix Suns -4.5 -108
NBA · 117-98

Props

L
Alex Sarr · over
Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers · Actual 7
L
Ayo Dosunmu · over
Chicago Bulls @ Detroit Pistons · Actual 3
L
Bobby Portis · over
Milwaukee Bucks @ Golden State Warriors · Actual 12
L
Brandon Miller · over
Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Hornets · Actual 0
L
Bruce Brown · over
Denver Nuggets @ Boston Celtics · Actual 4
W
Chet Holmgren · over
Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder · Actual 12
W
Collin Murray-Boyles · over
Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Hornets · Actual 15
L
Derrick White · over
Denver Nuggets @ Boston Celtics · Actual 4
W
Dillon Brooks · over
Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies · Actual 21
L
Donovan Clingan · over
Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers · Actual 7
L
Jaren Jackson Jr. · over
Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies · Actual 19
W
Jusuf Nurkic · over
Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder · Actual 15
L
Kawhi Leonard · over
Los Angeles Clippers @ New York Knicks · Actual 25
W
Luka Doncic · over
Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs · Actual 38
W
Michael Porter Jr. · over
Orlando Magic @ Brooklyn Nets · Actual 34
W
Miles McBride · over
Los Angeles Clippers @ New York Knicks · Actual 16
L
Nickeil Alexander-Walker · over
New Orleans Pelicans @ Atlanta Hawks · Actual 17
W
Paolo Banchero · over
Orlando Magic @ Brooklyn Nets · Actual 30
L
Stephon Castle · over
Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs · Actual 4
W
Tari Eason · over
Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers · Actual 13
L
Tyrese Maxey · over
Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers · Actual 22
W
Zion Williamson · under
New Orleans Pelicans @ Atlanta Hawks · Actual 22